Insider: $100 Million Football Rosters Are Coming; Can the Big 12 Keep Up?

Is college football heading toward $100 million rosters, and what would that mean for the Big 12? In this live stream, I break down where that number is coming from, whether it’s real or fear mongering, and why it could be a major warning sign for the future of the sport.

We’re also diving into BYU’s huge portal win with Rob Wright, what it says about Kevin Young and the Cougars’ NIL power, whether BYU is closer to Kentucky than people want to admit, which Big 12 programs may be whiffing in the transfer portal, and the wild new FanDuel playoff odds that show Texas Tech getting major respect while teams like Arizona State and Oklahoma State create big debate.

If you care about the Big 12, the transfer portal, NIL, college football spending, BYU basketball, Texas Tech hype, and the future of college sports, this one covers a lot.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:02

Well, somehow we are in the thralls of the basketball transfer portal, but it is in fact the football transfer portal that made the biggest splash today with a massive headline. Are $100 million rosters coming to college football? Yeah, we're gonna have to tackle that question. What does it mean for the Big 12? Would the Big 12 get left behind in that scenario? What about everybody else? Like, who can possibly keep up with that? What does that mean? And who said it? I will uncover all of that for you on the show here today. Speaking of the basketball transfer portal, I have already done a Rob Wright segment recently after he entered the portal and left BYU. Guess what, my friends? He is back. What that says about BYU's program. What that says about BYU's program relative to Kentucky. Okay, pretty big statement made there. Got some Big 12 playoff odds. Uh Texas Tech fans are going to be very happy. Everybody else, not so much. And there are some surprising ones here. In fact, I'm not a gambling man, but I'm going to show you the best value that's on the board, I think, in the entire country. And it comes from the Big 12. Plus, uh, K-State fans saddle up. You got slammed in the media by a former quarterback. A former star quarterback, a former Big 12 champion quarterback. Uh, I'm going to talk about that to close out the show today. But this is, of course, the Open for Business Big 12 podcast. It is where the Big 12 just means more. I am your host, John Kurtz. Thank you for joining me tonight, ladies and gentlemen. As you file in, please do like the video. Please subscribe to the channel. Both of those things help quite a bit. A lot of you watch that don't subscribe. It is very, very helpful if you click one button and subscribe. I also have the Open for Business Big 12 newsletter. If you would like more, it's totally free. Comes to your inbox twice a week. We have uh nearly 6,200 Big 12 fans subscribed already. That many people can't be wrong about anything, right? Okay, so that is another way to support the channel, and it does really help if you subscribe to that at OFBnews.com or click the link in the description of the video. That is ofbnews.com. On the show tonight, Bracket Cat, great to see you. If you want to join Bracket Cat in the chat, which I'm sure people will, light up that chat, make it lively tonight within reason, everybody. I appreciate you all. But if you click the dollar sign below the chat box, you can submit a super chat to support the channel that way. I appreciate everybody who is able to. But really, all it takes is just a couple of clicks, a like and a subscribe. It is perfectly free, and I am immensely appreciative of everybody who does that. Finally, if you are not watching live, John Dash Kurtz-4 on Venmo, to shoot me a super chat there, and I'll kick off the next show with it. Texas Tech fans, don't worry. I had no super chats this time around telling me to get after you guys uh like we did last show. All right. So we're not gonna start there. We are gonna start with something that will involve Texas Tech because we're talking about money in college sports, okay? Are $100 million rosters really coming to college football? And is the Big 12 screwed? If so, uh is everybody outside of a handful of programs screwed for that matter? Or is this all, as it's swept through college football social media today, just more fear-mongering to try and enact change in the sport? In this video, I'm gonna tell you what I think. I'll tell you where this number comes from, how realistic it actually is that we get there, and if it's a giant warning sign for the Big 12, let alone others across the country, right? That wouldn't just affect the Big 12, far from it. We know how crazy spending is these days in college sports. And I mean, the basketball transfer portal that's going on right now is Exhibit A. There was a really good article this week by Evan Miyakawa, uh, who literally has it was like 30 teams that have entered in prices that they're paying for guys in the in the transfer portal. Yesterday's price is not today's price. It's up 65% by his calculations this year. That's how much more expensive a roster is from last year. We already had Kentucky last year spending $22 million in the transfer portal. Uh, we had football teams spending over $40 million. Uh Pete Nakos quoted a Big 12 GM recently, is saying that LSU is definitely over 40 million for this year. Texas Tech for a time was rumored to be in that 40 million club, whether it was that or more like in the 30s, it was a lot of money, right? And it just keeps going up. I was reminded today when reading about all of this that just it was only four years ago, folks, a mere four years ago, when Nigel Pack transferred from K-State to Miami, K-State guard, and he signed a two-year, $800,000 deal with Miami. That was like shocking. People were stunned by that. Now Florey Badunga is the highest priced player in the transfer portal in the men's basketball portal, and the rumors are he's getting five million dollars for one season from Louisville. So in four years, we've gone from it being shocking that a guy's getting 400k for one season to a guy's getting five million dollars in one season. So that sets the table for where we are at. Now, where did this originate? It originated first with a quote from the GM of the Alabama Crimson tide. All right, so let's let's go ahead and hear from him.

SPEAKER_01 6:07

So you really don't know what other people are really doing. You kind of do the math in your own hand trying monitoring what other people in the competition are doing wondering to find more than 40 million dollars, but you just never really know. So what we've done is try to take things in our own hand and come up with different ways that we can help offset the cat do content creation, third-party deals. If you spend your time worrying about what your competition is doing, you're not taking care of what's going on in your own program.

SPEAKER_00 6:33

All right. My fault there, I was playing for the wrong tab at first for you guys, but you get the idea there. That's and courtesy of Front Office Sports for that from Alabama GM. Courtney Morgan says it takes probably more than 40 million to build a championship roster in the NIL era right now. So that's where we're at. Yeah, my fault, Bracket Cat. I was just sitting here listening to it like it was totally fine, breezing right along. Here's what we've got $40 million rosters right now. And so I already blew the cover on this. Let's share this. This is then what Josh Pate took it to say. And Josh Pate says, I've heard a few $60 million estimates for 2026 with multiple GMs telling me that the first $100 million roster is imminent within the current system. Okay. $60 million estimates for 2026, right? That's the upcoming season. We are in the year 2026 right now. Now, I that I don't know. Pete Nakos from On3 would later quote tweet this and say, hey, if we had a spring portal window, as in if there were a second portal window about to open up, we would definitely have a couple of rosters over 50 million. There is not a spring portal window, thankfully. But that's Nakos saying, like, we might have a couple over 50. Josh Pate saying he's hearing from people in the industry, they think there's already some over 60. That may be a bit exaggerated. And I will say, keep in mind with all of this, GMs, I think, have a vested interest in trying to get their donors engaged, right? So exaggerating a number here or there might help them. Like, hey man, Alabama's spending 60 million. You better write another check for us because we're going to need it. That type of idea, right? So maybe take it with a grain of salt. But I mean, the $100 million thing is crazy. You hear that and you're like, that is wild. Like you've got GMs now talking about $100 million. There has been some pushback to this. If you're wondering, John, what is everybody saying about this? Is there anybody who's at least pushing back to this? Yes, there is some pushback. And please do subscribe to the channel, by the way, pushing for 35k subs. Many of you watch, but don't subscribe. It would help me a lot if you just give me one click and subscribe. Uh, Matt Brown with extra points, who's been an excellent college sports journalist for years. He pushed back and was like, look, the combined revenue annually of I think he said Clemson in Florida State is not $100 million. Or he was pointing out that both of those schools don't even make $100 million per year. So he's like, look, that's not, we're not gonna get there. Let's let's slow down a little bit. Uh but then you had others like Dan Walken, who I know is not always the most popular, but he said, look, top athletic departments in the country make about $200 million in revenue. And if you look at the NBA and NFL, about half the revenue goes back to players. So if you do the math, that's $100 million. And I'm not gonna lie, it's hard to see this dying down. I mean, I just gave you the numbers, right? Like people have been saying for four years now we're gonna hit donor fatigue, we're gonna hit donor fatigue. Flory Badunga gets $5 million this year. We're just not really seeing that right now. Like, what is that point? Uh, it feels like with no guardrails, somebody is going to just keep spending more every single year. It's gonna drive the price up. There will be some donor out there motivated enough from somewhere to up the price every year, and then it follows for everybody. It truly does, and I know not everybody like likes this or agrees with it. It truly does feel like a someone needs to save everybody from themselves here. I I'm not as much of a gloom and doomer these days. I've tried to really embrace the chaos in college sports as opposed to always thinking the worst is going to happen. But even if you're looking at it like that, like it's hard to say with a straight face. Yeah, I could see this curbing on its own without any restriction and uh people stopping the crazy spending spree and it's not going to go up every single year. I can't sit here with a straight face and tell you that. So is college athletics screwed? Like, what's happening? What does this mean for the Big 12? What does this mean for the ACC? What does this mean for anyone not in the power two? Um man, I will say, if we're talking about end of college sports, there's a crap. I'm not, I'm not like going that far here. I don't think it's totally screwed. I don't think, I mean, look, we have a tendency in the social media world, like someone throws it, maybe it starts with a GM exaggerating a little bit, then it goes on social media, and then everybody just spins and spins and spins on it, turns into a game of telephone, and then like we've arrived at the end of college sports. I'm not, I'm not trying to do that uh at all here. But I do think like we're really asking the wrong question almost, if it's like, hey, will the Big 12 in the ACC be screwed if we get to $100 million rosters? Because, my friends, if we get to $100 million rosters, we're not talking about conferences being screwed anymore. We're talking about everybody except for like a handful, maybe, of schools that can actually maintain that every single year. Now, Kurt Signetti, Indiana head coach, tweeted earlier today that his roster did not cost anywhere near $40 million last year, and he kicked everybody's rear end en route to a national championship. So it doesn't necessarily take the highest spend to win. Kentucky spent $22 million in basketball last year and they lost in the second round. To Iowa State, who spent considerably less, right? So it's that's not foolproof, but if if that gets to be the asking price every single year, like okay, so maybe Michigan with Larry Ellison can keep up with that, right? He of the like $10 million NIL package, whatever it was for Bryce Underwood over a couple years. Yeah, Larry Ellison could probably keep that going. Minnesota, Northwestern, like uh Rutgers, like those where a lot of the Big Ten is not gonna, they can't keep up with that. Like most people can't. That's not a slight. I mean, the SEC has already struggled in an era where, as Colin Cowhert has affectionately said, it just costs more instead of it just means more. They've already struggled to keep up with the Big Ten. So if the money keeps escalating and escalating, I mean the Big Ten has deeper pockets. Uh, let's let's let's call it what it is. So you're gonna have like just a handful of schools that can really keep up. I mean, obviously, Texas Tech, the Matador Club, like you know, Texas Tech probably would not mind that much if it's just gonna price everybody out and they can spend their $100 million. Texas Tech could handle it. Absolutely. Outside of that in the Big 12, I mean, like BYU theoretically might have the money for it. I don't know that they would have the stomach for it because you think about the mission of the school, right? I I don't know that they're gonna want to be involved in that game if it's costing $100 million every single year. But if they wanted to, I would think that they probably could. Utah's got the $500 million private equity deal, but you do the math on that, even if it's gonna create more revenue, which it's a partnership really with private equity, it's supposed to create more revenue. You could you could maybe hang for a little bit, but you're not, I mean, long term, that's not a solution either. So that to me is the deal here. It's it's not a question of can the Big 12 keep up. It's if it really gets to this point, I mean, you're only gonna have a couple of schools that are really gonna be able to pace with a hundred million dollars a year. And by then, my my hope and thought would be that by then something is going to have sorted itself out with the future of college sports and college athletics. Like, I think it's gonna be messy, absolutely. I don't think any of it's gonna be fun and it's like hold on tight, you know. I mean, this is gonna be a wild ride, but I I think something will happen. We're seeing enough movement in Washington right now, and I'm not even telling you that like government intervention is the best thing long term, but it sure seems like something may happen there. Uh, that that's the road that we're going down at this point. Uh, so between that, maybe reform that could come somewhere else. I don't really know where it would at this point. Maybe there is some donor fatigue and a bit of an autocorrection with the market, maybe, maybe. But I feel like something will happen before it gets consistently every single year. The price is $100 million. But I think the point here of the GMs is like left to our own devices. If this is the system that we are on from now until the end of time, we are going to get there. And so, yes, it would be bad news for the Big 12, as it would be for like 90% of college sports, if that's the going rate to be competitive at the very, very top. One of a myriad of issues in college sports right now. Another one facing college sports is hey, I mean, brought up the SEC. They they may want to do their own thing. That has been threatened multiple times now, breaking away and just playing themselves and being their own entity. Click here to find out how real that threat is. That's for those watching the clip version, those of you that are hanging out on the live show, uh, just stay right here. I appreciate you all, my friends. Thank you for being here. Uh, David submits a super chat. Thank you, David. Click the dollar sign below the chat box in order to do that. David says, Don't you love how ADs and uh COM say paying players is so playing pay paying players so much is unsustainable, but the cost keeps going up? ADs and Calm. Is that just like we'll we'll just say ADs, right? All right, don't you love how ADs say paying players so much is unsustainable, but the cost keeps going up? Yeah, I mean, the pro you just it's in the hands of boosters, right? So like ADs can talk about it all they want, but they have coaches that want to win, and they have boosters that want to win. That's gonna rule the day at the end of the day, right? You can't be the one weak link if you're an athletic director, even if you're against where this is going. If you're gonna be the one weak link and being like, hey guys, we've got to stand tall against this and put our foot down, you're gonna have multiple schools that don't listen to you, and then your school will be left behind, your coach will be upset, then maybe he's a threat to leave, your fans get mad at you, right? I mean, like that's that's the problem. Like, that's why I say this is a save college sports from itself situation here. Like, I've been all for players getting paid. I I that was, I mean, the NCAA screwed this up by not just gradually allowing that to happen. The system has been against the athletes in many ways for a long time. Well, a lot of people, I'll say this, maybe that's a bit of a strong way to put it, but lots of people have been lining their pockets on the backs of the student athletes for a long time. But it's clear that if this just keeps going, like it will cause a lot of problems. A lot of problems. And nobody in college athletics will be able to save themselves from themselves if something happens here. So the ADs can talk about it all they want. Oh, commissioners, okay, David. Um, the ADs can talk about it all they want, but they don't have the power to actually band together and do this. Because there will always be a donor, there will always be a coach, there will always be a fan base that's crazed enough that they're they're gonna spend the money. So, yeah, anyway, David, I appreciate it. Uh, thank you for being here. Okay. Does BYU have a better basketball program than Kentucky right now? I actually think we need to raise that question because the Cougars just dunked all over Kentucky in the portal by landing Rob Wright. Yes, that Rob Wright, who just left, he's back. And he did this all basically as he was on the flight back from Lexington. Uh, in this video, I'll tell you how it happened, what it says about the NIL power that BYU has, speaking of, and why the programs are actually in this era much closer than you'd think. So I did that video within the last like 10 days about being shocked that Rob Wright entered the portal. And I I got a lot of comments, and fair enough, from people being like, Man, how could you be shocked? Like, how could you really be shocked that Rob Wright entered the portal after he signed an NIL agreement with BYU or with Baylor the year before, and then still chose to go to BYU. And hey, fair enough. I I that I it was a very similar situation here where Rob Wright had said during the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, I'll either go pro or I will be back at BYU. And I took him at his word for that. I was like, okay, well, he's he's gonna be back. And then he enters the portal. And it's like, all right, I look again, John, all is fair. You said it yourself, all is fair in Love War in the Transfer Portal. I should not have been surprised, but I was. But you know what? And I've been waiting to say this. Somebody better use this as a headline. You don't even have to give me attribution. Rob was right all along. You're welcome. Uh, Rob Wright did wind up coming back to BYU. He is now, as BYU said on its official Twitter account, signed, sealed, and delivered. Okay, so how did it all go down? And why am I making this a big picture point about BYU versus Kentucky and the program stature? All right. It sounds like BYU tried to agree with a number on him around or after the NCAA tournament, like as all that is happening, but right decided, like, hey, I want to test the market here. There's crazy money. I mean, to the point of the conversation to begin this live show. Flory Badunga is getting $5 million. Like, there's crazy money out there. I'm sure BYU gave him a competitive offer, but when the money is as wild as it is right now, like I can understand being like, you know, I just I want to test the market a little bit here, see how crazy this gets. And that was pretty obvious to see when you saw the schools that were interested in him. Louisville, Arkansas, Kentucky. Like these are Louisville seems to be spending more than anybody right now. Kentucky spent more than anybody last year. Arkansas has John Calapari and the Walmart money, the Tyson money, right? I mean, like these are places you would be looking if you're trying to maximize the dollar figure there. And if you're BYU, I can understand not wanting to like totally overcommit there. You need a roster with legitimate depth as BYU found out last year. They didn't have enough depth to withstand uh a slew of injuries. It needs to be a deeper roster that's probably not as reliant on three players. Eventually, it does sound like though, the money between BYU and Kentucky got pretty close. Jeff Goodman tweeted that he heard that the money in the end was close to equal, which does show the NIL power that BYU has. And then Matt Norlander from CBS Sports, another one of the big news guys in college hoop, said that at the end of the day, Rob Wright just wasn't really that eager to attend a third school in three years. So, hey, as much as it sucks, and you have to like swallow your pride a bit as a fan to get here on this and just be like, hey, I you can love our school and still say there is like crazy life changing. Money out there. I've got to at least explore this and see what I could get. And if it's an extra million and a half dollars, like I, you know, I gotta listen. All's fair and love and war in the trans reportal. Now he's back. Now you can rally around him. And to me, it makes two big points about BYU's program. One of them is that in this day and age, I really think BYU's program, you can argue, is pretty close to on par with Kentucky. And it's not, you don't just need this example to see that. It's a general statement about where we're at in college basketball right now. So hear me out on this, okay? And please do subscribe to the channel. It takes one click, it is totally free. Helps me out a bunch if you do do that. BYU is pretty, pretty well strapped when it comes to NIL. If you're offering close to the same of what Kentucky is putting out there, you've got some cash. Kentucky's desperate. Spent 22 million last year. Mark Pope barely got him into the tournament. They got to the second round. That's it. So that's a good sign. If you had any doubt about how much BYU can spend, and that is a part of this. Like they've they've got some money in the era where that matters more than anything. I would also say, like Kevin Young, for the doubters there, of which there were many by the end of the year that were telling me, hey, you need to be more critical of him based on how that team finished last year, it's clear that the guys do like playing for him. Like Rob was not going to go and playing for him over Mark Pope. I mean, that was the decision, right? The former BYU coach or the current BYU coach. That's that's another piece of this that's uh that's really interesting. But if you're if you're talking about BYU versus Kentucky, and it doesn't have to be BYU, but any, you know, insert well-funded power five program here versus Kentucky or Carolina or Duke or Kansas, any of the blue bloods, there's just really not that much difference anymore. And this has been a fascinating case study in it. The North Carolina job opening was a fascinating case study in it. Tommy Lloyd turned them down, Dusty May turned them down. Ben McCollum didn't even like let it get to the point where he could officially turn them down. It's just there's not that big of a difference if you've got the money these days. If you've got the money and a passionate fan base and you're in a good league, the jobs are much more equal than they used to be. Okay. And if you start looking at like what BYU has done now, it's like they they got Rob Wright from Kentucky, and then they literally took Colin Chandler back, a prodigal son of sorts, uh from Kentucky after he scored 10 points a game for Mark Pope last year and shot 41% from three-point range. So I'm not here to tell you that like BYU's got the history of Kentucky. That's all great, man. But Jamal Mashburn is not winning you any recruiting battles in 2026. Jamal Cashburn might. Man, I'm on fire with the puns today. But Jamal Mashburn is not. Uh, Jamal Mashburn Kids was a great player for Kentucky back in the 90s. Um BYU right now, I think, has a better coach, competitive dollars. If you're Rob Wright and you're looking at the situations right now, like Kentucky fans are freaking out about the portal and where they're at right now. At least at BYU, you're looking at it like, all right, well, there's there's a lottery pick that I'm gonna be playing with, right? Uh now Colin Chandler left Kentucky to come there. Another couple of transfers signed this week by BYU. The roster is starting to come together. Shooter from Syracuse, a bit more of a glue guy from Clemson. The roster's rounding into form here, and you've got, I know that you don't want to rely on this as much as you did last year, but you've got with Bruce Branch, somewhat of an AJ DeBonsa replacement, and then Colin Chandler. If you want to say that's somewhat of a Richie Saunders replacement, you got sort of like a big three to build around here. I don't think BYU is going to want to be as reliant on that as they were around the big three this past year, but it's a pretty good nucleus right now. So things are looking good. I think it says a lot of good things about the BYU program right now, and uh I would be very happy about this. I know it's like readjusting your expectations to not be like, well, hey, this guy sort of cheated on us, man. It was, you know, but you can't really look at it like a dating analogy here just because of what college athletics is right now. In the past, like five years ago, if it were like, hey, this guy went into the portal and then came back, I can see how you'd be. It's like, well, you come up to your girlfriend, you're like, hey, can I just like hop on Tinder tonight and like see what's out there, and then I'll decide if I want to stay with you or not. That's basically what happened, but like that's the norm. That's just the that's the society that we live in. Very polyamorous, I suppose, in college sports these days. And I think there still is a story where you can rally around Rob Wright here. And I don't think that'll be too much of a problem for BYU fans. But it is crazy how much that's all changed recently in college athletics. Things are looking good for BYU right now, but that didn't stop ESPN Stephen A. Smith from taking a huge shot at the Cougars. Uh, click here to find out why. That's for everybody watching the clipped version. Those of you that are hanging out live, the show goes on. So just stay right here, my friends. If you want to submit a super chat, click the dollar sign below the chat box. It will guarantee that your question or comment makes it on the show tonight. And it's just a great way to support the channel. Thank you to all who do that. You can also hit me up on Venmo at John-Kurtz-4. If you're not watching live, send me a super chat there. I'll kick off the next show with it. It's totally free, though, just to like and subscribe. And subscribing helps me out a ton if you could do that. Uh, sign up for the Open for Business Big 12 newsletter at OFBnews.com. Okay, JPAP967. Boy, war with Iran, making making sure tech's pockets will be full. I mean, I think tech's pockets are going to be full basically, uh, no matter what. Like Cody Campbell's already sold his companies, right? For is it four or five billion dollars? Was the last round. Double legal. I'm getting some of those numbers. I'm probably a little bit off there, but tech fans could fill in the details, I'm sure. Uh, can tech keep Grant McCastle in future poaching attempts? Well, I think JPAP 967, I would say to what I just mentioned about the difference between a Kentucky and a BYU in today's day and age, I think there's there's no reason that they couldn't. There's no reason that they they can't hang on to him. Because, like, what you know, Texas Tech, for instance, all right. So let me let me put this context to you. The athletic did the survey recently of all the college basketball, well, not all, but many. It was like 50 college basketball coaches, head coaches, and assistants. What is the best job in the country? They took that poll. Uh, Kansas was like four, three, or four. Uh, Duke was number one, Carolina was number two, Arizona six, and then the only other Big 12 school that got a vote, but did get a vote in the others receiving votes category was Texas Tech. And it's because what matters more than anything right now, it's money. It's money, and Tex got the money. And so what it they've got a great fan base, a great home court advantage. They play in a great league. So that job compared to like a North Carolina, compared to a Kansas, I guess maybe that's one you would think about because it's probably going to open in the next couple of years, judging by the way things have gone with Bill Self's health. Um, although Arizona fans should probably be more worried if you watch that video recently. I don't think there's any reason Tech can't keep Grant McCaslin. I think I don't know what I don't know what his like ultimate hopes and dreams are. I don't know if he's like trying to get to the NBA. At least I would say this in college, I think there's every reason to believe Tech can keep him. If Grant McCazlin is wanting to go to the NBA, I have no idea. And I have no idea, like, I don't follow the NBA close enough to know like is McCaslin a guy that would be on the radar? I have no idea. That would be the one thing I would say. Maybe that becomes a threat. But I don't think another college job is going to be as much of a threat as you would uh as you would think. So anyway, JPAP, thank you for uh thank you for that. Money is the most important thing. I I got a little bit of grief for which you know I knew I would for ranking the top ten football programs in the Big 12. And that's I said money is the number one factor right now, and that's with a bullet, period. End of sentence. And so, like, just another example of that. Like money, it's cream like Wu-Tang, man. Cash rules everything around me. That's that's what matters more so than anything. And it has changed the paradigm of college sports rapidly, rapidly. Let's talk some actual football here. FanDuel just dropped its latest college football playoff odds, and uh the Big 12 odds are pretty wild. They are pretty wild. Texas Tech is getting more respect from the books than Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, and even uh both teams that played for the national championship last year, Indiana and Miami. But that's that's not even the crazy part. That's not what I'm talking about. There's one Big 12 team on this list that is shockingly low, and there's one team I think sitting on the board right now from the Big 12 that looks like the best value in the entire country. All right. Best value in the entire country. So let's let's talk about it, my friends. Uh, again, this this is fan duel, where I saw these odds. Um, I'm gonna give you the full list of Big 12 teams here. I will tell you right now that number one in the country is Notre Dame, but number two, number two, and you'll see that denoted in parentheses here, Texas Tech. Number two in the country, minus 390, right? Minus 390. Everybody is plus 430 or longer odds to make the college football playoff. Uh, so I have a lot of takeaways from this list. I mean, first of all, like Texas Tech second in the country in playoff odds. That's I maybe I shouldn't be surprised because some of what that is saying is well, we think Texas Tech is just going to steamroll the Big 12 again, which outside of an Arizona State game without a starting quarterback, Texas Tech did beat everybody by three touchdowns in the league, right? So it was it was a steamrolling generally. And these are odds to make the playoffs. So you win the Big 12, you're gonna be in the playoff. You have to factor all that in. That's not Ban Doel saying, hey, we think Texas Tech is the second best team in the country. It probably with Texas Tech is also a bit of, we know that they have a light schedule this year. And, you know, I know sometimes tech fans have bristled a bit at me saying that. I think we can call it what it is. On paper, it's a little bit light. You don't have BYU. The non-conference schedule is definitely, definitely light. Apologies to Oregon State, but it is what it is, and so that leads to really high playoff odds here. Plus, the other thing is, you know, sportsbooks trying to generate action. Not Texas Tech's team that a lot of people know. Texas Tech's hot. They're hot in these streets. The last year has really elevated Texas Tech's national profile. People are much more aware of them, trying to generate some action on uh on both sides there. So tech by far the favorite from the Big 12 to get to the college football playoff. But that that was not the most shocking to me on this list, my friends. Please do subscribe to the channel, by the way. It is totally free. Many of you watch, but don't subscribe. It would mean a lot if you give me one click and subscribe to the channel. Thank you very much. Arizona State to me was shocking on here. Now I get it. Look, they're plus 1600. And if you took this, they'd be saying like ninth in the Big 12. Ninth in the Big 12. Man, Kenny Dillingham is the best coach in the league. They've won 19 games the last two years. And last year, you know, the eight and five campaign is with Jeff Sims at quarterback, right? Like that is that's Kenny Dillingham miracle worker. Jordan Tyson was hurt for a bunch of the season, right? Like they just dealt with brutal injuries throughout the year. So you look at this and it's jarring, I think, to see Arizona State. Like Arizona State behind Baylor. No offense to Baylor and Dave Aranda, who I really like as a guy. I think he's a cool dude. I appreciate the Zen-like attitude, but we're putting Baylor above Arizona State. Okay. Okay. Um this, I think, is all about the schedule. This is where you got to pay attention. Like this, these are not teams in a vacuum. You got to think about the schedule. Arizona State is at Texas AM, at Texas Tech, and at BYU. So break that down. If you're talking about making the playoff, winning your conference is one way to do that, the most surefire way, certainly in the Big 12 to do that. Well, they've got to play at Texas Tech and at BYU. That seems like the two toughest games you could engineer in the conference for the upcoming year. That will make it much more difficult to win the Big 12. All right. What about as an at-large? You know, if maybe you split those and don't make it at large. Well, you're at Texas AM in the non-con. So it does provide opportunity, but it also is most likely. Well, maybe I shouldn't say that. But it's a very losable non-conference game. We'll put it that way. So I think that's it. I think that's what you're seeing here with a really shocking number for Arizona State. It is big time opportunity. You go in at Texas AM, you're going to be on the radar. You go win at Texas Tech, you're going to be on the radar. You go win at BYU, you're going to be on the radar. But when you compound all that, it makes it really, really difficult. Uh, so where is the most value? Have you guys figured it out yet? Which team on here I think is the crazy, crazy value. I see someone in the chat says, uh, says K-State, beer and pizza money on K-State plus plus 900. Look, love the cats, love Colin Klein. Uh, I think that's that's pretty darn generous. Putting K-State at fourth in the Big 12 there, maybe on the strength of a team that the last four years has been up near the top of the Big 12, gotten a lot of preseason hype. Avery Johnson's still around at quarterback, and he's a name that people know. Uh, you know, he's got to get a lot better if K-State's gonna challenge for the playoff. I think that's that's a lot of respect for the Wildcats, to be completely honest. K-State also has a very nice draw with the schedule. No BYU or Texas Tech on the Big 12 schedule. They do have Arizona State and TCU. They do have Oklahoma State, Houston, Arizona. Um, all teams that I think have a shot to be pretty good this year. But hey, I mentioned Oklahoma State there. Okay. I mentioned Oklahoma State. Have you seen? Look at Oklahoma State. Plus 2000. Plus 2000. This is the same Oklahoma State team that, I mean, last show I did the Bill Connolly from ESPN's uh uh uh 20 favorite transfer portal classes this year. Oklahoma State was one of the six Big 12 schools mentioned there. Like he loves the Oklahoma State transfer class. And how could you not? They have a a top 10, uh basically a consensus, top 10 portal class, bringing over the Drew Mestamakers, the Wyatt Young's, the Caleb Hawkins of the world, who were all premium players at their position from North Texas. That feels like a place that could reboot quickly, and a lot of people think is a dark horse. And you're talking about them here being 11th, best odds in the Big 12. Man, I mean, I'd take a flyer there. I I am not a betting man, but that is just a word to the wise here. I think that's a really fun one for Oklahoma State. I mean, I would I think Oklahoma State's got a better shot than Kansas. Arizona State, that's a that's a conversation. Arizona, that's a conversation. I suppose like TCU, that's a conversation. But I would I would think Oklahoma State would be much more in the like plus 1300 range, like a TCU Arizona. The Baylor thing, I just I don't I've got to see a lot from Dave Aranda and Baylor before I believe it. And I think that's earned skepticism and like DJ Lagway. I've got to see it from DJ Lagway. That's I mean, earned skepticism based on what his career has been like at Florida. He's got a lot of talent, but man, don't know that I trust that Dave Aranda is going to be the guy that just totally unlocks it. Uh, a couple other notes here. I mean, Utah. A lot of respect for Utah, one of the other teams that is in the top 25 of odds here when you're talking about losing seven coaches, losing some of your most talented players, right? Your uh John Henry Daly, Smith Snowdons of the World. Like, that's a lot of respect, I think, for Utah there. Maybe Devin Dampier and just residual program value, and perhaps belief in in Morgan Scaly as well. But then the other thing that's crazy to me here, guys, is like I know this audience is not like typically big on Colorado, but Colorado dead last. Plus 8,000 there. I mean, did FanDuel just watch the video of all the players running out onto the field that they were getting killed for? Like I boy, the buzz has faded in Boulder quite a bit. They're gonna need a bounce back here to get back in the in the good graces there. But that is jarring to see. So perhaps is Iowa State. But we all know that that's so much about just they have to replace almost the entire roster. They lost all those guys along with Matt Campbell to uh Penn State. But let me know where let me know where the odds got it wrong. Let me know where you think the best value is in the comments. Uh please, please do. So Texas Tech got some love from FanDuel here, but it's ESPN that's actually been showing love to the entire Big 12 conference. Click here to find out why ESPN suddenly has the hots for the Big 12. That's for everybody watching the clipped version of the video. Those of you that are hanging out live, just keep chilling with me. Keep chilling with me. I've got uh I've got one more segment with you. This is a little more perhaps self-indulgent, something that I was very interested in and wanted to talk to today. I'm gonna get to a couple of super chats though before that. If you have something that you would like to say, click the dollar sign below the chat box. It will ensure that your chat makes it onto the show tonight. So we say hello to Scott. What's up, Scott? How much do you think Colin Klein is talking to Bill Snyder? You know, I don't know. I part I don't know how much uh I'm sure there's been some conversation there. In fact, I think I asked him that on the three-mot interview with Colin Klein, which you can find on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. And I'm trying to remember what exactly he said. I'm sure there have been some conversations, but I would guess that there have been more with Chris Kleiman because Kleiman's now being paid to be a consultant, basically, uh, for the football program. Consultant, analyst, whatever title you want to slap on there. Uh, I do know he's been hanging out at some practices, so I think I think much more of it is happening with uh with Chris Kleiman right now. Uh JPAP967, uh University of South Oklahoma, aka formerly UNT. Yeah. Yeah. Uh I maybe uh Boone Pickens, can they turn their stadium into that, like, you know, you drive by that North Texas stadium on the highway in Denton, it's like it's got like the kind of like wings almost, like the slanted stands. It's a very unique, unique stadium. Uh, maybe we can maybe we can make that happen. Might be a challenge. I I don't know if the paddle people, how that'll work, if you're gonna do that, but I do appreciate that North Texas has one of the most unique stadiums in the country. Uh, okay. Last thing I have for you tonight here. And by the way, please do subscribe to the channel, like the video. Uh, it's very helpful if you click subscribe. And uh, you know, spread the word. Sign up for the open for business Big 12 newsletter at OFBnews.com. That's ofbnews.com, or click the link in the description of the video. It's free, it's in your inbox twice a week. And uh, we've got 6,200, nearly 6,200 Big 12 fans who do subscribe. Let's file this one under things that only happen these days because of the portal in NIL that can really test fans. It makes being a fan more difficult than it used to be. A K-State star quarterback says that the Wildcats took advantage of him and didn't pay him enough money. Yes, that is a headline you would not have seen five years ago that you now see uh in 2026. And it's really just the tip of the iceberg to me on why the transfer portal sucks for college football fans these days. Good for players, rough on the fans. In this video, I'll tell you what was said, why it's it's misleading for sure, and what it means for any college football fan these days. All right. So, what I mean when I say like the this it's a K-State story, but to me it's indicative of like what we're living in right now. There's so many examples of this. K-State is not the only school dealing with a bit of an awkward situation with a former player who should be beloved based on what he did at the school. Um, you know, I someone texted me earlier today like, so Bryson Tiller, who played at Kansas last year, we're talking basketball right now. He just announced that he's committed to Missouri. All right. Like, I I mean What K-State lost Dylan Edwards, running back in football to Kansas. Utah. I mean, Utah, this is not a rivalry, but within the conference, they just lost Keanu Dawes to Kansas in basketball. I always think back to I felt horrible for Oklahoma State fans a couple of years ago when Trace Ford transferred to Oklahoma. Just these things happen all the time. The text that I got was it was about the Bryson Tiller thing, and it was like, hey, we've got this and we've got Dylan Edwards. Like, nothing is sacred anymore in college sports. And I thought, yeah, I mean, that's that's pretty true. That's a pretty accurate summation of where we're at right now. Like, nothing is sacred. And this is this is a byproduct. People complain about the money a lot in college sports, and that is a part of it, but it's it's the money combined with the portal and just the the ease of access in the portal to go anywhere. Kansas fans I saw were also complaining, like Darren, you know, you had Darren Peterson, and I forget who the other Kansas player was that was commenting on the commitment post from Bryson Tiller to Missouri. They're supporting their teammate, but like I get how you're a fan and you're just like, dude, just like this, this just doesn't mean anything to anybody anymore. Like, we hate Missouri. This has been a hundred years plus of hate that's been built up, and it just doesn't mean anything anymore. If you're if you're staying at a school for three to four years, it would mean something. It would also help if you know Kansas was in the same conference as Missouri. We've done a lot of things in college athletics that make these things not very sacred, and it puts you in a tough spot as a fan sometimes and how you remember guys. And that brings me to Will Howard at K-State. Another example of what a weird time it is in college sports. So, look, Will Howard should be beloved for winning the 2022 Big 12 championship at K-State. Like he was a stud that season, stepped up down the stretch with an injury to Adrian Martinez, but frankly, he should have been playing before that anyway. He was the better quarterback that year when K-State had a pretty loaded roster and was a baller in the Big 12 championship game and beat that unbeaten TCU team to win a Big 12 title. Then it was an erratic year in 2023. Some ups, some downs. K-State was a little disappointing. And then he transferred to Ohio State, which look, I will say this before we get to Will Howard's comments. Totally fair. Like Will, Will absolutely made the right decision. It worked out swimmingly for him. K-State made the choice that it had to. It's not going to be able to keep Avery Johnson and Will Howard on the same roster. You had to play for the future there. Avery was a stud local recruit. And it has not to this point worked out quite the way that you wanted it to, but it was a decision that you really had to make if you were K-State then. And might I say again, Will Howard was pretty erratic in 2023 when the roster around him was not as good. So everybody goes their separate ways. Will Howard gets a loaded roster where he could succeed and wins the national championship and gets paid seven figures, we now know for sure, at Ohio State, thanks to the article from David Ubbin at The Athletic earlier today. And that's that's I think it's all totally fine. Like Will Howard should feel like I made the right decision. I'm cool if he, you know, if he's on Monday Night Football and he's listing his school, say Ohio State. That's fine, man. You won a national championship there. Like, I get it. But it does make it a little bit weird if you're a K-State fan with that, right? There's already like a all right, how do I feel about this then, man? Like, this is one of three quarterbacks in school history, along with Colin Klein and Noel Roberson to win a conference championship at the school. I've got some weird feelings about this, especially when Will says things like what he said. Okay. Please do subscribe to the channel. One click really helps pushing to 35k subs. Thank you very much. Um, check out what he said here to David Ubbin. So David Ubbin writes a really good story. I would encourage reading the whole article in the athletic. Uh, but it's about the financial realities of guys, especially at quarterbacks, staying in college longer now versus going to the NFL because they're just objectively making much more money playing another year as a high-profile quarterback in college football. So the article says Howard bided his time before a big payday. He spent four seasons at K-State starting 27 games. In his final season, though, incoming freshman Avery Johnson was being paid more. Quote, I was a naive kid. I didn't know the nature of myself. I didn't want anything or need money. I said I was good. There were a lot of politics the last year. There were games I was splitting time with him for no reason that I knew other than there was money going to him that wasn't going to me. Okay, let me read that last part again. There were games I was splitting time with him for no reason that I knew other than I tried to read it better and I screwed it up again, guys. I'm sorry. There were games I was splitting time with him for no reason that I knew other than there was money going to him that wasn't going to me. All right. We'll come back to that. Uh Howard said he never signed a deal with K-State's collective, though he did secure a few, a few smaller deals through community businesses. Quote, everything I did was on my own. They kind of took advantage of me and got me for cheap. So I decided to go somewhere else and make a little money. It's different when you go to a school, you're the guy getting the money. It's amazing how different you're treated. It was the best decision I ever made. All right. There's a lot there, man. That's pretty loaded. Now, the second part I can't totally speak to. I don't know what he was making versus what Avery was making. It would make sense that Avery was making more, and some of that is a timing thing because he was starting his college career as an elite recruit as the money was going up. Just the market value of high-profile recruit in Avery's shoes that K-State's trying to pull away from Oregon. That's going to be worth more than Will Howard, who's already on your roster there and didn't have the pedigree as being an elite-level recruit, right? So some of that is bad timing. But I can I can see how that money situation gets very awkward. I can see how Will Howard would have some feelings about that. That is completely, completely fair. And it was the objectively the best decision he ever made to go to Ohio State. It could not have worked out better. And that was the decision basically that had to be made, you know, on all sides of that. So I totally am okay with him saying all of that. Go get your money. He deserved to make $7 million and win a national championship at Ohio State. The part that I bristle at is like, dog, what can we let's call balls and strikes here? All right. He's saying Avery Johnson, there were games I was splitting time with him for no reason that I knew, other than there was money going to him that wasn't going to me. Will. Will, come on, man. I love you. One of my favorite interviews that I've done on Three Maw was the interview where Will Howard put his Big 12 championship ring up to the camera. And it was like a little nod to the haters because he took a lot of crap early in his K-State career. Love that. Will. Do we remember the Oklahoma State game in 2023? Like Will Howard at Oklahoma State that year was 15 of 34 for 152 yards and three interceptions. And they didn't even bench him. He played the entire game. But the next week, they went to Texas Tech and Avery Johnson played in that game and scored five rushing touchdowns, and K-State won. What are we talking about here? That was not Avery Johnson playing because of money. It was playing because Will Howard threw about seven balls into the chest of Oklahoma State defenders on a Friday night in Stillwater in one of the ugliest games that I've ever seen with these eyeballs. Like, let's just see, and this is where it's like, you know, the stuff that gets complicated on this, man. Like I'm sitting here, the fan in me is coming out. Like, what are we talking about? I it is completely fair to say, hey, I got I got nudged out a little bit at K-State. It's kind of like Kyle Whittingham, Utah, sort of a deal, right? Totally fair to say that. But let's come on, man. Don't lie about how you were playing in 2023. Like, and and it is not like Will was then benched the rest of the year. He played, shout out to Ryan Wallace for calculating the number on this, 87% of K-State's offensive snaps that season. So yeah, there was a little bit of Avery Johnson there, especially the Texas Tech game after Will bombed, I mean, completely bombed in Stillwater. There were reasons that Avery Johnson was playing. Let's come on. Like that's it's frustrating to read. It's like, hey man, you got your legacy from Ohio State. You're a national champion forever. You got money that, if you invest it, can be generational wealth from Ohio State. You're playing for your hometown Pittsburgh Steelers. Why? Why make that comment? Why go back and say that? That is objectively not true. There were some weird things financially happening there. It was a tough situation, a delicate situation that Kleiman was having to manage. Chris Kleiman, by the way, who stood up time and again for Will Howard early in his career when he was objectively very bad at quarterback and going through a rough time. And Chris Kleiman stood up there and called him the best backup quarterback in the country and got made fun of incessantly by the fan base for that comment for a long time until Will Howard then did turn into a very good quarterback. Like that's the guy. He was trying to do right by everyone, man. Surely Will could at least have a little bit of like empathy for the coach there. And just it's it's it's intellectually dishonest to say there that Chris Kleiman was trying to play Avery Johnson because he was making more money. No, man, Will Howard threw 10 interceptions that year and probably should have thrown 17 because of bad passes that were just fortuitously dropped. He was a bit erratic that season. So anyway, uh it is what it is. Will, I still I want to love you, but these are the situations that like Transfer Portal NIL era puts fans in right now, and it hit uh it hit K-State fans this time around. All right, thanks for rocking with me here tonight on the show. Please do like the video, subscribe to the channel on your way out the door tonight. I uh I appreciate everybody who has uh who has come by tonight. Let's see, subscribe to the Open for Business Big Twelve newsletter, OFBnews.com, sent a great one out earlier today. OFBnews.com, totally free, straight to your inbox, nearly 6,200 subscribers across Big 12 country. And uh I hope you enjoy the rest of your week. I was about to say have a great Wednesday night. It's Thursday, though. Enjoy the rest of your Thursday night, and uh I will talk to you all very soon. Take care.