Senate Bill Setting Off Realignment Wave? And Screwing Utah and Texas Tech?

Could a new wave of college football realignment be coming sooner than anyone thinks? On tonight’s Open For Business Big 12 live show, we break down the latest updates to the Protect College Sports Act and why the Senate bill could create major consequences for the Big 12, ACC, SEC and Big Ten.

The biggest issue: new language in the bill could freeze power conference membership, potentially blocking leagues like the Big 12 and ACC from expanding or merging. What does that mean for schools like Florida State, Clemson, Miami and North Carolina if they still want out of the ACC? Could that panic create a realignment scramble before the bill gets passed? And if the ACC ever does implode, could the Big 12 finally add teams like Louisville, Pitt, Virginia Tech or others?

We also discuss whether Texas Tech, Utah, Arizona State, TCU, BYU and Kansas should be worried about getting locked into the Big 12, why Cody Campbell’s role in the bill is so fascinating after the Brendan Sorsby fallout, and why Group of 6 schools like Boise State, Memphis and South Florida may hate these updates.

Plus, we hit more Big 12 topics, including why college football needs to protect rivalry games, anonymous Big 12 coach quotes on Houston and Utah, whether the Utes are getting too much credit in year one without Kyle Whittingham, why Willie Fritz and Conner Weigman have Houston positioned as a major Big 12 sleeper, and a look at Big 12 win total over/unders.

Subscribe for more Big 12 football coverage, realignment news, college football playoff talk, NIL updates, and weekly live shows from Open For Business.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

You didn't think we could get through an entire college football offseason without a little conference realignment talk, did you? Well, here we are. Uh, if you did think so, my apologies to break it to you, but we're gonna talk a little bit about it tonight because uh John Wilner dove into a potential realignment scenario that could play out very, very quickly based on the circumstances of the Senate bill as it is right now currently constructed. Not as it started, but as it has been amended to be constructed right now. It also could have some ripple effects on the Big 12, not just in, hey, what happens if there is ACC chaos and conference realignment in a hurry, but also if membership is frozen in the Big 12, why are we not hearing more from some of these Big 12 schools that fancy themselves Big Ten or SEC material? I do want to raise that question today. We have to raise a question about the Utah Utes. After reading some more of these anonymous coach quotes that come from Athlon, thank you to uh to our friends at Athlon for releasing the anonymous coach quotes. I was looking at the Utah quotes and thought, man, maybe we've all actually been missing something here when projecting and prognosticating what Utah is going to do this year. I want to compare and contrast that with the Houston Cougars, who I think those two teams are most people's pick for third in the Big 12, would be one of those two teams. And some Big 12 win total over-unders. That's always fun. You know whose name I didn't say once the entire opening rundown of the show here. You don't see his name on the graphic. There's no Brendan Sorsby talk, people. No Brendan Sorsby talk. I'll give you your update real quick. The CFL said he can't play, and the UFL seems to be welcoming him with open arms. So I guess he's gonna have some home if he wants it. But we're gonna set aside the Brendan Soresby talk for now, I promise. Okay. Uh thank you guys for being here tonight. This is, of course, the Open for Business Big 12 podcast. I am your host, John Kurtz. It is a YouTube live show. It's where the SEC or the Big 12 just means more. See, that's the problem when I try and steal their slogan. That might that might be the worst thing I've ever said here on this show. It's where the Big 12 just means more, my friends. I promise you. Uh, if you are listening on podcasts, uh look, if you're listening on podcasts, it's it's getting left in because this is a live show. We do this live, people. To quote Bill O'Reilly, we'll do it live. And so sometimes things like that will happen. You can be witness to those as they happen if you subscribe to the YouTube channel. And you can be a part of the live chat, which is happening right now as we speak, probably making fun of me. If you are listening on the audio platforms, though, I do appreciate you. Spotify, Apple, wherever you get your podcast, you can find open for business. You can also get the open for business Big 12 newsletter. It's OFBnews.com or click the link in the description of the video to get that. OFBnews.com should be in the description of the podcast. Also, you can join 6,300 plus other Big 12 fans who are subscribers there. It is totally free. And I appreciate everybody who does that. If you're here in the chat tonight, you know how to mix it up. Keep it alive. But if you want to guarantee that your question or comment makes it on the show tonight, click the dollar sign below the chat box. That is how you can do that to uh to get signed up or to get your voice heard on the show tonight. Also, a great way to support the channel, but it's totally free to like and subscribe, and that does really help. And many of you watch but don't subscribe. It would be wonderful if you could click subscribe. All right, you guys ready to roll tonight? Uh we got some fun coming up for you. I've got uh an embarrassing picture of myself to show you later on, too. So stay tuned for that. That's something you can only get on the YouTube edition of this as opposed to listening on podcasts. We've glossed over a huge part of this Senate bill that could set off a totally new realignment wave. There could be realignment chaos coming. And John Wilner, a big J journalist, actually did talk about this, okay? So before you dismiss it as just YouTube speculation, something YouTubers we all specialize in the conference realignment speculation. Big J journos have been writing about this, okay? And it could even end in the Big 12 adding teams, potentially, if this all went down. I'll tell you why we've missed this uh and what exactly is going on here, how likely it is that this could happen. Okay, so you guys know if you've been watching the channel for a while now, a lot of the tension right now in this bill, the Protect College Sports Act, that is in the Senate waiting to be voted on, waited to be taken to a vote before it would then have to go to the House. One of the big issues is that the senators, Maria Cantwell and Ted Cruz, the co-authors of this, are really butting heads with the Big Ten and the SEC. Now, they got it through the Senate Commerce Committee so that it could go to a vote. And they had four extra votes there, actually got a lot of Democratic support. And I heard Ross Dellinger say on the latest Yahoo College Football Enquirer that that actually is a sign that this may have a real legitimate shot. He said he felt like Charlie Baker's quote from the NCAA that it was 50-50 is kind of where he's feeling that it's at right now. So again, still legit shot here, even without the Big Ten and the SEC being on board. But the Big Ten and the SEC do not like obviously the pooling of broadcast rights, which could bring everybody closer to them, even though as a whole everyone would make more money. They also really don't like the Super League provision that was in there, which I'll call it that. It is essentially limits on at first, it said conference is making over a billion in revenue, could not expand or merge together. That would be the Big Ten of the SEC to try and appease the Big Ten of the SEC. We got a change to that. And the change was the ACC and the Big 12 are included now, too. That number got moved down to 700 million. So the Big 12 and the ACC now qualify. The Big 12 and the ACC would not be able to merge or add teams. And so, in effect, what that does is just freeze membership in conferences right now. And that's the current version of the bill that is being talked about. Now, the SEC and Big Ten have raised a lot of concerns and still have not supported, even with that change. And I can tell you that I think those close to the bill, like connected to this process, feel like the SEC and Big Ten are basically just moving the goalposts. Like if they make a tweak to something, they will come up with some other thing they don't like. And that one of the things lately has been the SEC and Big Ten saying, well, this bill doesn't actually prevent an outside entity, like a private equity party, the Project Rudy thing, a private equity group from coming in and creating their own Super League and just plucking the top teams from everywhere. They're saying this doesn't prevent that. I can tell you that people connected to the bill say, yes, it does. And I believe that the feeling there is they're just trying to poison the well, the SEC and the Big Ten and move the goalpost and not ever totally get on board here. But in the meantime, they did make a major, they did acquiesce in a major way by including the ACC and the Big 12 in all of this. And so this is where I think there are potentially unintended consequences here. And part of the issue we're going to go through here is that as this bill tries, they try to get it passed, if there are more tweaks and more changes and concessions, could be a lot of unintended consequences that happen before it actually makes it through. Because let's think about this, man. If membership is frozen, and I think I've brought this up, but I didn't carry it fully out to its logical conclusion here. If membership is frozen, first of all, in Big 12 country here, what are Utah and Texas Tech thinking? Like the two schools that seem to be loudest right now, at least about feeling like they are Big Ten or SEC material. But what about everything that was going on in the ACC, man? I mean, you've got Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina. These schools that uh particularly Florida State and Clemson were litigious enough to just jump into multiple lawsuits against their own conference because they want it out so badly. So, again, before you question like John, would they, I mean, come on, man, would they really do this here? Like, you've got to consider anything because of what we have already seen them try to do. All right, and the dominoes of that obviously could fall all the way down to the Big 12. So let's let's get to the timeline to line all this up and see how quickly this could happen, right? The reality of potentially Florida State, North Carolina Clemson looking around and going, well, what the hell? We've got to get out. If we think this bill is gonna pass, if Ross Dellinger's saying 50-50 shot, how much time do we have to get this figured out before we're just frozen in the ACC? Please do subscribe to the channel, by the way. Very quick and easy. One click. And if you watch and don't subscribe, it helps me a lot. Uh, all right, the timeline here. They're hoping for a mid to late July, it sounds like vote in the Senate, maybe more like a mid-July vote in the Senate. They're on recess right now or will be in early July. Um, I'm having to learn all these things about the political calendar. I never dreamed that I would have to learn. Um, the House actually could be more like September, so we could be talking about the start of the season uh by the time this would actually get through there. And it does seem like the president would be very likely to uh to sign this into law if it gets to him. So think about what I just said. That timeline is September. It means June. It's late June. We're about the 4th of July is next week. So it's not that far away. So we're talking about like what's happening in boardrooms and meeting rooms right now across the ACC. Like, yeah, it's not cheap. It's gonna cost you a pretty penny to get out. But also, how litigious can you be? What can you work out in court? Whether it's suing the ACC or reacting to this bill, is it some kind of preemptive strike like what the Big 12 laid out? Like, I don't think we even know. Nobody expected and saw coming what the Big 12 did to Brendan Soresby with what Tom Mars was out calling a brilliant legal strategy and legal move there that I don't think people have thought about. So, yeah, is the price tag right now technically, as John Wilner uh from the Wilner hotline points out, $950 million technically to leave the ACC? Yes, that is the price tag as it stands right now. Remember, it drops big time in 2030, and that was one of the results of the lawsuit that they fought. But $950 million is crazy. That's an obscene amount of money. But private equity's already gotten into college football. Hello, Utah. That's an option. We know about Weatherford Capital, the connections that uh you know Florida State has there. Florida State's been talking that been reported for a long time. They've had discussions there. But also, again, get into court and see what you can get chipped down. I'm not putting anything past the ACC contingent here. Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina. After what we saw over the last couple of years, I don't think it's fair to put anything by them. I mean, they they went on. This was still one of the most mind-bending things that happened in that process. They went on a smear campaign of the former commissioner of the league accusing him of nepotism being like one of the reasons that they should be out of the ACC. Like, speaking of clever, creative legal strategies, I mean, that qualifies. Florida State is a literal Florida man here. Okay, they are literally Florida man. You do you read those Florida man stories? You don't know what a Florida man's gonna do. Florida State may emerge with bath salts, throwing it at everybody, trying to just leave the ACC while they have infected everybody's eyes by a nice toss of the bath salts. We don't know. They're Florida man. I'm not putting anything past them. Uh and and then if that were to happen, then it's like, oh, I mean, all bets are off. Yes, the ACC has fortified itself with Call and Stanford and SMU coming into the league just from a number standpoint. Um, and I mean SMU has has had some real success here and certainly seems like a school that can hack it pretty well in this era of unbridled spending. So it's not a guarantee that they would implode, but I how many schools are leaving? What's the interest level of the SEC and Big Ten? Uh another thing Wilner pointed out that I thought was really smart was what kind of a share would they be getting from the SEC and Big Ten? Is this just, hey, we know we have all the leverage, here's a half share for a long time. Good luck. You know, there are a number of factors that could come into play here, but we know already that we've seen the desperation from Florida State and Clemson. I'm just sitting here looking around, like I I know it seems quiet right now, but there could be some things happening because you have to, you have to be looking around right now if you're like that. It's a better situation in the ACC for Florida State, Clemson and company than it was before because they now have things twisted to where unequal revenue sharing is gonna benefit the bigger brands. It will also benefit you if you have a better season on the field. It's not helping the Knowles out very much these days, but or Clemson, but but it is there if they want it, um, and if they earn it. So it's a better situation. But they still desperately want out. And if they're looking at this like, hey, we thought 2030 was going to be our time to get out because of the lawsuit that we just fought, and now that's in jeopardy because of what the government is doing, and it could just we could be cryogenically frozen here, I would think that could crank up the levels of desperation more. And then if it all goes downhill, I mean, you you've long heard everybody talk about the the idea of the Big 12 becoming the best of the rest conference if it really does start to splinter off. If you're talking about Pitt Louisville, Virginia Tech schools like that coming over uh for the Big 12 to just scoop up the best of the rest if if the Big Ten and the SEC are gonna take the bigger brands there. Certainly in play. Certainly in play. And again, I will just stress this would be a very expedited timeline if that were to happen. So just pay attention, just pay attention. I'm just asking you to be on alert. I'm not saying that anything is is imminent, not that anything is happening right now, but you need to keep your eye out. And there's another thing to keep an eye out too, and that relates more directly to the Big 12. I am gonna talk about that in a moment. I'm just if you're somebody that is sitting here like John, this seems a little too far-fetched for me. Again, remember, Florida State's a Florida man. They have sued their own conference already. Florida State and Clemson are in the joint lawsuits against the league. Uh, we're in a world where the SEC has legit talked about breaking off to only play games against each other, like just the SEC conference. It's been legitimately discussed. Uh, we're talking about another Senate bill here that actually has bipartisan support. We're talking about a judge ruling that a player can play for his team after betting on his own team 40 plus times in college football. Like it's a wild, lawless world. Anything can happen. I'm not counting out anything here. I don't think it's wild to at least put this on your radar. And hey, the senators working on this bill, as I mentioned, continue to be furious with the SEC and Big Ten. Click here to find out the details on why. Thank you to everybody hanging out live. That's for the people watching the clipped version. We're not done quite yet with the Protect College Sports Act. Okay. This relating it a little bit more directly to the Big 12. But I appreciate everybody who's here. Click the dollar sign below the chat box if you want to uh submit a super chat. Very quick and easy to do that. That's how you guarantee your chat makes it onto the show tonight to get your voice heard. Great way to support the channel. Also, you can hit me up on Venmo at John-Kurtz-4 if you are not watching live and you'd like to one support the show, but two, have me kick off the next show with your question or comment so you can still be a part of the conversation, even if you're not able to make it here live. Typically, those of you listening on the podcast platforms, we're going live streams uh Sunday nights around eight, and then either Wednesday or Thursday around eight, depending on my schedule. That one does slide around, but if you subscribe to the YouTube channel, you will get the notifications. Subscribe, click the bell, you'll get notifications on when it is that I am going live. Are we glossing over Texas Tech and Utah getting screwed by the new updates to the Protect College Sports Act? Maybe other Big 12 teams too. You could certainly argue that. It's a bit weird to me. We're not hearing more pushback on this from those corners of Big 12 country. Now, if you've been paying attention, Texas Tech has had a lot on its plate. So I do understand that. Okay, but there is a very high-profile Texas Tech donor and board member, board chair, in fact, highly involved in this Protect College Sports Act. And I think this is another road to explore down the potential or unintended consequences of the Protect College Sports Act. So, as I mentioned earlier in the show, if you're watching the live stream, the latest updates to the bill were made really to appease the SEC and Big Ten. Uh the biggest being the ACC and Big 12 are now included in the group that can't expand or merge. So the threshold changed from 1 billion to 700 million, which would mean that in the power four, anyway, like conference membership is essentially frozen. So I hey, how about an unintended consequence here? I didn't think about this. Just driving a stake through the heart of the conference realignment industry. Look, I say that fully understanding that I have benefited from that, all the conference realignment that has happened. Driving a stake through the heart, Congress coming for all of us, Congress and the Senate. Anyway, the G6, we would still have G6 conference realignment if they want to move around. That is not frozen. They're not making $700 million per year. Um, but that is a huge change. And if you're talking about just keeping membership where it's at right now, there are a lot of there are a lot of schools that have completely opposite end of the spectrum reactions to that, including many that would hate it. Florida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, you would certainly think with how hard many of those schools were fighting to get out of the ACC over the last couple of years. But what about like Texas Tech, man? And the timing on the Texas Tech piece is really interesting here. Okay, really interesting. But Utah, you know, I mean, ever since Utah joined the Big 12, it's always been with an eye, at least from the fan base, on the Big Ten. I mean, there are Utah fans that are on Twitter right now with just the Utah Big Ten logo as their profile picture, right? Like that's been, and I just I don't feel like I've heard a lot of that. Like much panic. Like, hey, if this goes through, if this happens, like we're just stuck in the Big 12 now. I Arizona State, I saw John Wilner when he was talking about this, actually mentioned Arizona State and Utah basically as the two most likely candidates to be included. It was a question asked to him, hey, if the Big Ten and SEC go to 24 apiece, he propositioned Utah and Arizona State as the two highest on the ladder for the Big 12 there, not even Texas Tech. But, you know, I mean, TCU has had its flirtations with other conferences before. Kansas has certainly fancied itself Big Ten material. Uh BYU's football and basketball programs, men's basketball programs have been on the rise. But really, I want to drill down into the Texas Tech and Utah part of this. Because I mean, think about the Cody Campbell piece. He's highly involved in the Protect College Sports Act and what's going on. As far as I can tell, I have not seen him speaking out strongly against including the Big 12 and ACC in this. The last thing I saw was from like three days ago, just him going on, I think it was the Will Kane show, talking about how good this is, how great the bill is, and how much it needs to go through. He's got his hands all over it. And I think in general, much of what is in it would be better for the Big 12. But if Texas Tech, with its fan base at peak rage levels toward the Big 12, not just the league and the league office now, but really all of the schools, because now you've had the Soresby saga where it's not just your mark laying down the law about tortillas. It's not just your mark and the league office making the schedule and forcing Texas Tech to play on a Friday night. It's now 15 of the 16 league ADs are furious, and some of them are popping off with F-bombs and stories. And all of the opposing fans are, you know, I mean, the anger has expanded, I feel like. And you definitely have this vibe from seemingly a lot of the Texas Tech fans are like, screw this conference, we need to get out of here. So I I just have not seen what I would anticipate being the requisite amount of frustration, fear, and anger from Texas Tech fans about the fact that that's on the table now in this bill. That you could just be frozen and stuck here. So, why is that happening? Why are Texas Tech fans not pushing more here? And what are the odds that they actually do get stuck? Please do subscribe to the channel. If you watch, but don't subscribe. It really does help me if you click the subscribe button. Thank you very much. I think there are a couple of things in play here. Why you're not hearing more from like a Cody Campbell, why you're not hearing more from uh tech fans. I mean, I guess part of it with Cody Campbell, he's in pretty deep at this point. If he were to all of a sudden like totally reverse course on support for this based on something that would very transparently be like affecting his school, you know. I mean, I know a lot of people would say not that that has stopped him before, but this would be a pretty overt and transparent reversing course on all of that. I would also say it's probably just a little shot of reality. Like it doesn't feel like I mean, Texas Tech's not getting an SEC or Big Ten invite anytime soon. So is the idea and the attitude then, well, better to just shut the door on SEC Big Ten merging, doing a super league, like breaking off on their own, whatever. Better to get that codified in well, whatever codified means, in getting it done in a bill. I mean, I'm sure there will be lawsuits and whatnot. But at least for now, getting that taken care of, maybe that's the thought. That would be better because we don't have an SEC or Big Ten invite. That would be a healthy dose to me of realism and self-awareness. Maybe they watched my top jobs video. If you saw that the other day on the channel, top 10 jobs in the country right now, I put Texas Tech just in the top 10 because the path to the college football playoff, as much of the college football world would tell you right now, is as manageable as it is basically in any power for a conference. Uh, we could debate the merits of the ACC, perhaps. Um, well, we could we could debate that. Hell, depending on what draw you get in the Big Ten, you could certainly debate that too. Uh, because it's possible to miss those top three or four teams and then have a real, real cakewalk of a schedule. But it's a pretty nice path. I mean, you're bait, you're talking about like the Oklahoma path to the playoff for a while there that is available to Texas Tech or anybody in the Big 12 if they want it, but just a really manageable schedule, win the league, you'll go to the playoff. And if you want to say, well, that's not gonna win you a championship, I did you look at the conference schedule Miami played last year? Now they they scheduled a huge non-conference game, which definitely helped against Notre Dame. Texas Tech can do that. They said one is coming. We haven't seen what it is yet. The rumors out there were like USC or Notre Dame. Texas Tech's trying to follow the exact same path Miami took just to the national champion. Miami came within an eyelash of winning the national championship. They didn't play anyone ranked higher than 18th in the league last year in the ACC. So that path is certainly available and makes you capable of winning a national championship as Miami has proven. It's also just, I think there's so much more in the build that makes it just a much more sustainable environment for everybody, right? Uh you've got the five for five with one transfer. You cut down on the NIL gray area, you know, the outside NIL, the language in this bill would really prevent a lot of that. Then maybe the cap goes up, which is another discussion this week. SEC and Big Ten schools wanting it up to 60 million, which would be like three times what it is right now. Crazy, but that's at least an option. It would, it would, even that would still like rein it in and make it a little more, a little more organized than what it is right now. There's so much else in here that I think it's hard to turn your back on that, probably. Having said all that, I'm still a bit surprised because you guys know how if you're paying attention to you know the comments on this channel or Twitter or whatever, you know how frustrated Texas Tech fans are with the Big 12 right now. I they can't maybe people are just too burned out as well. That's another theory here, too. People are just too burned out on I don't want to pay attention to bills. I don't want to pay attention to what's happening in the Senate. It's really lame that I seemingly have to these days to follow college football or my team or my conference, and I'm just not going to invest enough time in it. That is absolutely a part of this, I would imagine, as well. Uh, but you know, same with same with Utah, and I'm sure a lot of the same principles apply there. Like I'm just I want to know what Devin Dampier is going to do behind a reworked offensive line with uh a new offensive coordinator and a new head coach this year, not what the Senate when the Senate is going to actually bring this to a vote and which senators I have to worry about are going to actually vote for this. Um but there hasn't been much, and Utah was incre has been very vocal. I mean, you guys, another thing I don't have to tell any of you that have been around here for any period of time at all, that Utah fans have been very passionately advocating for Big Ten membership for quite a while. Really, I think it just it feels like everybody wants some stability and understands the current reality of the situation. Um I do, I can tell you, I mean, G6 schools, speaking of places that have to hate this, G6 schools definitely have to hate this. I mean, the Boise, Memphis, South Floridas of the world that are right on the cusp have been maybe close or discussed and debated whether they could make that jump before and haven't gotten the opportunity to, like a TCU, like a Utah over the years, um, like Houston, like BYU. I know they were independent most recently, but not having the opportunity to do that and then getting the door slammed in your face with uh with a bill from the government, yeah, that's that is difficult. And and some of this I've heard people point out, and I can't really fight back against this, there's some hypocrisy from uh Ted Cruz, who has held up TCU as one of the examples of like, hey, if TCU in the state of Texas were to get left out because some super league forms and they don't make the cut, that would be a real crying shame. Well, if this bill as it is currently written now were to go through, then you're you're shutting the door on the next TCU, right? Like TCU had to claw its way back up from the total doldrums of college football after the Southwest Conference collapsed, and it was able to do so because it's still possible to uh for conferences to expand and take teams like that. This would slam the door on the next TCU happening. So look, again, don't ask me about all I can tell you is the vibe that I get from people who are following this very closely on how likely it is to pass. I don't really know. I do not know what to expect from the political process of all this. I've heard plenty of arguments that make sense as to why it would be really tough. It will push too close to November with the midterm elections coming up. Sides get more partisan, it would be tougher to get bipartisan support for that. I that seems to make sense, but I also hear plenty of people, again, like Dellinger saying it's 50-50. Josh Pate thinking it will pass comfortably. Um, it still does seem like this has a shot. So you've got to consider all these consequences, whether intended or unintended, that could come from this. Huh. So look, all these concerns with the bill, speaking of unintended consequences, could set off a new wave of uh conference realignment. Click here to find out how. That's for everybody watching the clipped version. Uh, those of you who are hanging out here tonight live. Thank you. Thank you, thank you for being here. Please do like the video. Please do subscribe to the channel. If you are so inclined, if you want to make sure that your question or comment makes it into the show tonight, click the dollar sign below the chat box. I appreciate each and every one of you who do that, but it's totally free to like and subscribe and to sign up for the Open for Business Big Twelve newsletter at OFBnews.com. It is OFBnews.com. To do that, or you can uh click the link in the description of this video. Uh I wanted to uh to show you guys something. Let's let's break it up here. We're gonna talk some ball to end the show, okay, mercifully. I know for some of you that I can I can see by the chat making light of some of the conference realignment talk here tonight. This will be a nice transition into it because conference realignment, one of the things conference realignment does, it robs us of rivalries, ladies and gentlemen. It robs us of rivalries. We need rivalries for people like a youngster that I found while going back and doing some research and watching an old game from 2010, 16 years ago. Um, people like this get to enjoy it. If this picture does not say rivalry, I don't know what does, ladies and gentlemen. Look in the lower right hand corner there. I was going on the K-State online uh podcast. What do they call it? KSO Classics. Shout out to my guys, Mason and Drew, who were doing that. And they wanted me to uh to talk about the 2010 K-State KU game. So I had to go re-watch that. And as I'm watching the broadcast, look who I found on the broadcast in the lower right-hand corner. That is, yeah, that that's uh junior year of college, I think. Watching a 52 to nothing uh K-State, eventually 59 to 7 win in Lawrence. Very fun night. And this is one of those things conference realignment can absolutely rob us of. Okay. So we do need to be careful of that. But I also present this to you as uh a little bit of hope. If you look at that, I mean, you're just the the young immature college kid laughing at beating his rival 52 to nothing. Well, by the way, being in the opposing student section, I was in the Kansas student section for all of this. Uh this man is now a homeowner. This man now has 753 people watching him talk right now on YouTube. Uh, you are right, village idiot. One thing conference realignment does is give YouTube channels higher viewership. It has certainly done that. You two can make it from this young, immature lad sitting in the stands in 2010 to a homeowner who builds backyard fences, has a mortgage, has responsibility, and has now 764 people listening to him in the chat, including, including 2 Masta. Including Tumasta. Thank you guys. Thank you guys for being here. Uh, okay, we're gonna talk some bull. Remember the anonymous Big 12 coach quotes? I really like these. We've had some interesting ones from Athlon this year. If you go back, I've done videos on a couple of them. Two programs that they think are really on the rise, West Virginia and UCF. Very bullish on where Rich Rod and Scott Frost are going with those programs. Also, the take that you could only the only rational take you could have after reading what they said about BYU and Texas Tech is that these anonymous coaches think BYU is the better team and going to win the league. Uh, it was pretty staggering to read those. There is also a video on that. But now we talk about third place finishers in the league. Are we giving Utah too much credit this year? Is everybody, all the predictions and prognosticators, and particularly the machines that seem to really like Utah? Because a quote from a Big 12 coach has me really thinking that way. And who do Big 12 coaches think is the better team this year, Houston or Utah? Many people think that's the race for third, more or less, in the conference. We'll tell you, I will tell you, interpreting these coach quotes, they seem to have a clear favorite in that race. If you are right now starting to look at projections like Bill Connolly's SP Plus, he did a really good piece the other day that I would I would highly encourage you to check out about the Big 12, basically a Big 12 preview using what his model thinks about the conference. Utah's pretty firmly entrenched ahead of Houston, which does surprise me a bit, and I think will also surprise the coaches who are quoted for uh for Athlon that I'm gonna read to you from. But Utah is 25th in the country, which is third in the Big 12. Houston's 36th, and that may not seem that far behind Utah. Some of this we are parsing really minute details because, well, yes, they are 11 spots behind Utah. That doesn't really seem that far. But K-State, Arizona, and TCU are all ahead of Houston. So that would put Houston at what three, four, five, six, seven, like seventh in the Big 12. That seems pretty nuts, but there's not a whole lot of difference when all these teams are just lined up right next to each other, right? Or we're talking about four Big 12 teams in 11 spots. Still, though, it's a bit staggering to read, like, wow, K-State, Arizona, TC all ahead of Houston there, and Utah all the way up at 25. Let's take a look at what the anonymous coaches think because I see a lot of Utah love. I understand it. First of all, let me just say that much respect to what Utah and Morgan Scaly has been a part of, you know, for the the better part of two decades as a player and then a coach, and now taking over as the head coach. And obviously Kyle Whittingham was running the show, but there's a ton of respect for that program. There's a bunch of championship DNA still lying around there, even if the coaching staff got rated, even if some of the talent got rated. There's a lot of good stuff that still resides in uh in Salt Lake City. Some of that good stuff includes a couple of quarterbacks returning who appear to have very uh high ceilings, one in particular in Bert Ficklin, and one who was very productive last year in Devin Dampier. So there's a lot that could be very, very nice to work with at Utah. But to me, Houston has been the pick. If you're talking about who's finishing third, like I am very bullish on Houston. And it seems like the coaches agree with me here. So here are the anonymous coach quotes. Willie Fritz is a ball coach. You win 10 games at Houston in year two, that's big time. All right. Next quote last year, they weren't as good up front as they're going to be this year. I thought they got one of the better guards in the transfer portal from Tulane. That's Shadre Hurst. All right, next quote. Quote, getting Oregon running back transfer Makai Hughes will help. Next quote, here's what they have to say about Connor Wegman, returning quarterback for the Cougars. Quote, Connor Wegman is a stud. Tough, gritty winner. Can beat you with his legs, and they'll run the hell out of him, too. He really understands how to run their offense they want to run. Man, I like that. That seems pretty spot on on Connor Wegman. Here's another quote: Quote, they've got a couple of really good receivers back. They've always been an explosive team, and that's what I expect them to be again. And finally, we're talking about the defense. This has been a lot of offense, right? Here's what the coaches have to say on the defense. Quote, they lost their best defensive tackle, but their defensive coordinator is good. They have a lot of speed everywhere. That's a pretty glowing review of what Houston has coming. And I this just seemed like if I were to go into Chat GPT and say, hey, here's what I think about Houston this year, why I am very high on them and why I think that they are the third best team in the league. Give me some quotes that could come from a coach in the league to support my priors and my thoughts on Houston. It would spit out something almost exactly like that. Okay, because my thought on Houston has been one, I think they have a very solid quarterback coming back in Connor Wigman, who I am pretty high on. I think he is he is pretty darn good. Not quite the ceiling of some guys in the league, but he is a pretty darn good quarterback. I think Makai Hughes can be one of the biggest additions out of the portal this year. Immense upside at running back, has played for Willie Fritz before. I like that. They've got explosive receivers back. I think their skill positions are going to be good, and they definitely seem to get better up front in the portal with what they hit on the offensive line. And then on the defense, it's Willie Fritz, man. I trust him. Austin Armstrong, I sure, he was great last year when Texas Tech money whipped Shield Wood away from Houston to Lubbock. So I just trust Willie Fritz and company to come up with the defense. And that's basically what these quotes all said. Like, hey, their quarterback's a stud, man, tough gritty, and a winner. Makai Hughes is going to help at running back. They're going to be better up front than they were last year. They've always been an explosive team and they've got some really good receivers back. And hey, yeah, they lost their best defensive tackle, but they've got speed and they've got a good coaching staff. They'll be fine on defense. It's exactly what I thought. It's exactly what I thought of Houston. Now let's compare and contrast that with Utah, who, again, the computers, at least SP, is higher on. Please do subscribe to the channel, by the way. If you watch but don't subscribe, it helps me a lot if you give me that one click. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. I was a little surprised on this. It was not the most glowing review. Here's quote one. Quote, I'm really curious what it looks like without Kyle Whittingham. They cause a lot of mismatches because they're plus one in the run game with the quarterback and all the pullers and gap schemes that they did. That's quote one. So pointing out the obvious. Hey, they did some good things, but now Whittingham's gone. Here's quote two. Quote, it's going to be really interesting to see what their new philosophy is on offense and defense because they did struggle to stop the run last year. I think they were the worst in the Big 12 against the run last year. That's not them. They've always been great up front, so that'll be interesting. We're coming back to that quote. All right. I'm going to breeze on past it for right now, but we are coming right back to that quote. And then this one. But yeah, it's definitely a relief that Whittingham is out of the Big 12 because he's a great football coach and he's an even better person. All right. So first of all, when one of the three coaches is someone talking about what a relief it is that you have a different head coach this year, I mean, generally, that's not going to be a great thing. That means nothing about Morgan Scaley's coaching ability. It's just everything about what Kyle Whittingham was. And I can understand if you're another coach in the league being like, yeah, I'll take my chances with the new guy based on what I knew Kyle Whittingham to be over two plus decades. The offense question, I think, is a fair one. Like, hey, this will be the third year, uh, third straight year with a new offensive coordinator. Um, and while Kevin McGiven is supposed to run a pretty similar system to what Jason Beck had going there. So, you know, with two quarterbacks back, hopefully that wouldn't be too much of a transition. It will be interesting to see how it compares and if there are some bumps in the road there. I mean, it Utah, I think, feels like it's better at receiver. I think Utah feels like there's a higher ceiling on offense because Morgan Scalley may put more of a premium on, you know, trying to get the ball downfield, actually develop a passing game. And we do assume that Morgan Scally will put together a good defense. I think generally that's fair, but this is really what piqued my interest about this coach and what raises the question here. Like, are we glossing over too much what happened last year? They were 10 and 2, right? I mean, like it was a good team. But Morgan Scally was running the defense. And that coach that said, hey, I thought they were the worst in the league at defending the run. I mean, you can make that argument. They were 15th in rushing, in rush defense in terms of total yards per game, which I know people aren't always crazy about using the raw yardage statistics, but they were 15th in the conference ahead of only Colorado in stopping the run in terms of yardage, raw yardage in league games. They gave up a Rice Eccles stadium record, 293 yards rushing to Joe Jackson of K-State, who was an incredibly pedestrian running back the entire rest of the season. Until then the next week he saw Colorado and also had a good game. Not as good as he did at Rice Eccles, but still had a good game. He looked pretty darn good against the two worst run defenses in the league last year. Everybody else, he was real pedestrian. So, I mean, it's it's legit. That run defense was not good. And now, I mean, all three rotation defensive tackles are gone. Get a couple of transfers there, lose one to Penn State, one to uh one to Michigan. Logan Fano goes to the NFL. John Henry Daly, your best edge rusher, is is gone. Like I there are some there's some real holes to fill up front off of a team that already was not very good at at stopping the run. Now it's the old adage. If they weren't good at stopping the run, is it better to get rid of them? But I'm just saying the track record here is NFL, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan. Like that's you know, they have gone on to some pretty green pastures. They've gone on to some pretty green pastures. Portal guys that'll be counted on there for scaling company. But the question it raises for me is like in in thinking, hey, this will be a top three, four, five team in the Big 12 next year, maybe compete for a Big 12 championship, are we just breezing past what went on on the defensive side of the ball last year for Utah? That that would be that would be my question. And if another coach across the conference is basically raising that same question, I think it's it's fair to look into it. So I thought that was a really insightful quote from Athlon there. Morgan Scalley might be a complete stud. This is not meant to be like a bash on Utah segment. It's just Houston, I've said, I just assume Willie Fritz will put together a defense. Utah, I've just I've just said I assume Morgan Scalley will put together a defense. But last year, Houston at least did not have as glaring a weakness as Utah. I know as I said that in my head, I was like, well, I can feel Utah fans coming back and being like, well, look at the scoring defense, John. I think Utah was just looking at that. It was second in the in the Big 12 in scoring defense. Like a lot of the overall numbers don't look that bad. They were great, the great pass defense that Utah had. And I think they're going to be really stingy against that as well. But they can't stop the run. I mean, this is a this is a league that is not the like 2010s high-flying Baylor West Virginia 70 to 63 kind of a conference. Like you know, there's more running the ball. It's more physical than it was back then. So we shall see. Let me know what you think in the comments. Who would you take? Utah or Houston to finish third in the Big 12. Uh, we got some over-unders to run through. I've got some super chats to get to. Uh, let's check it out real quick. Darius. Darius, thank you, my friend. Click the dollar sign below the chat box if you have a super chat you want to contribute. Darius said, uh, Cody Campbell wants to help, but uses current rules to our advantage. Doesn't mean he likes the current setup. Uh, by the way, TCU does have Texas voters. Well, the thing about like votes on this bill is like you're just you're getting it's really convoluted because especially in a state like Texas, I mean, think about all the different interests that you have there. You know, I mean, even like Ted Cruz, Ted Cruz shows up at Texas and Texas AM games. So you've got enough big schools that have a lot of fans and people that really care that are on different sides of this issue. So it gets really convoluted when you're talking about like who's got what votes for what. Uh, so Darius, in response to the combo earlier about, you know, how is Texas Tech feeling about membership potentially being frozen? Cody Campbell wants to help, but uses current rules to our advantage. Doesn't mean he likes the current setup. To me, this feels more like a response almost to the Brendan Sorceby thing, which I would just go back and say, Darius, this goes back to what I said would have been my advice to tech as a PR guy the whole time. Just be honest. And Cody Campbell, I feel like, had that. There was one statement really early on when he gave a quote to somebody where he basically said that, like, hey, this is why I'm trying to fix the system. I don't like it, but while it's in place, we've got to do what we've got to do. And I was like, dude, I respect that. I respect that. It was when it turned into, well, he didn't kill anybody, and you're just doing this because we're Texas Tech and you wouldn't be doing this to LSU, which is, I mean, a hell of a statement. Lane Kiffin, people wouldn't have come after Lane Kiffin for trying to play Vernon Swordsby in that situation. You know, if you would have just left it at that, if you would have, you know, a 21-minute video, all these things. I can respect that. From of course, of course, there are some competing interests there. And if you're the board chair and you're in the Matador Club, like, yeah, you gotta do what you gotta do under the current rules and the current system. I I'm okay with that. Um, but I I don't feel like that, and if I'm misunderstanding you, Darius, uh, let me know. But I don't feel like that is totally addressing the this piece of it, which is like I I would think Cody would be a just not real thrilled with the development of the Big 12 and the ACC membership being being frozen there, too. But uh and really, with that, I guess that conversation, it's not just the Big 12 and the ACC membership being frozen, it's the first part. It's not even the amendment of the bill, it's the first part of the bill. Ace or uh SEC and Big Ten membership being frozen. Like they can't add anybody. Well, then you're you're cryogenically frozen in the Big 12. So you better get used to, I mean, better figure out a tortilla alternative. You know, I mean, that's I guess the the point there. Uh, I appreciate you, Darius. Thank you for being here. Uh Bracket Cat says, yeah, young John Kurtz with a not yet as chiseled jaw. Yeah, not not as much. Not as much. I mean, you can see it. There's a little bit there. It's potential, needs to be developed. Um, and it was, it was eventually developed. So, yeah, Bracket Cat. Uh agreed with you on that one. Whoo, Darius says Texas Tech will beat Houston's, you know what, light work at Houston last year. Some fighting words there. Darius, does that mean am I putting you on the side of Utah then as the better of the two teams? That was the debate we were having. Was Houston or Utah? Which side of that are you on? Because Utah was also pretty light work last year at Rice Eccles for Texas Tech 2. Uh, so take your pick. And that was with Will Hammond, who's probably going to be playing quarterback this year. Assuming, knock on wood, that that he makes it back safe and sound from the injury. Alan, what's going on, Alan? Alan said, uh, John wanted to crush any mention of KU taking a step down and going to the Big Ten. I like it, Alan. Uh disrespect. Defending ACC football champion Duke picked to finish last in the ACC. Uh interesting coming to the Mizzou game. Ooh. I I yes, I mean, yes. Part of the the it depends a little bit on timing because it's much easier just from a job standpoint to like do the job of getting in all the games that I need to get in on a on a Saturday to be able to do this well. It is tougher when I'm at a game, but that's you know, you know my love of the KU Mizoo game, Alan. Maybe, maybe so. Maybe I could check that out. Maybe I could. Um might have to add that to my list. We'll see. We'll see. What is the date on that? What is the date on that? Kansas football. ESPN. We've got okay, that's week two. That's right. That's week two, and it's on a Friday, isn't it? All right, so scratch everything I just said. It's on a Friday. All right, I'm running out of excuses here, Alan. So yeah. Yeah, maybe so. I'm interested. I'm interested. Looks like tickets are 246 bucks according to ESPN. So hopefully could find uh could find a credential or something there. We'll see. We'd love to, Alan. Would love to. Uh all right. Let's uh let's let's do this. Is one last quick segment here to end the show just because I saw this. Shout out to On3 uh for putting together the graphics, best graphics in the game. But here are your win totals according to BetMGM, your over-under win totals for the Big 12. I want to know what your reaction is to all of this. There are a couple of things that really stand out to me, and we've got to start at number one, ladies and gentlemen, which is just, I mean, Texas Tech at 11 and a half. This is like, I mean, this this came out like this week. This is post-Brendon Soresby. Texas Tech post-Brendon Soresby, and you're still throwing tech up there at 11 and a half. Meaning, if you're taking the over, tech is going unbeaten in the regular season. That's that's too rich for my blood. Now, I would guess that this would be heavily juiced to the under. Um, so like, you know, if you're taking the under on this, you're not you're not gonna make near as much money. And I said, look, I'm I'm not the gambling guy. I believe I said that correctly. If I didn't, you guys know. I've been a big fan of all this. Speaking of Brendan Sorsby, again, the irony of bringing up Soresby when we're discussing over-under totals from Bet MGM. Welcome to college sports in 2026. But I it, I mean, Will Hammond, it may be his first game playing Houston. I know the schedule is easy for tech. I I understand that. I don't think a lot of people would have picked them to lose to Arizona State last year and it still happened. I I think there is a stumble there at some point. If it were still Brendan Sorsby, none of this drama had happened. Like, you know, if this were February and we were talking about this, I'd be more inclined to jump on that. But I I would take the under. I would take the under on it. Then obviously, you have a huge gap. I mean, you can see the gap between what that MGM thinks of Texas Tech versus everybody else. Does not feel like it's like to me, again, BYU, Houston, and tech are the a top three. That is a top tier for me. It is a tier. They're all linked together. Here it's a very clear tier one, and then like tier two is like Utah, BYU, K-State, Houston, Arizona. Probably most of that schedule based on who you like there. And I have seen some pushback. I got a shout out to my guy Shooter, if he's watching, who sent me an email about K-State, like questioning some of the love that he is seeing for K-State now. Here's the problem. Or it's not a problem, but here is the reason that you're seeing K-State, I think, higher than most people would anticipate in the first year of the Colin Klein era. When K-State lost transfers to LSU, Texas Tech, and two to Indiana, like some real high-profile talent. K-State's also got a really easy schedule. On paper, manageable. I guess I should say manageable. I mean, it's it's very much in the same vein as Texas Tech's. They don't have to play BYU or tech. That's a huge W in year one for Colin Klein. Um, it is an advantageous schedule. And I think a lot of what you're seeing there is just, hey, this has been a good program. Certainly a solid program that's knocking on that eight, eight and a half win mark most years over the last half decade. We're gonna take Avery Johnson, Colin Klein, program stability, really manageable schedule. And I think that's I think that's why you're seeing that. I mean, to me, Houston feels low there. I know it's uh a lot of that is probably uh schedule based, and maybe just people being too slow to jump. Well, playing for the playing the regression, which I understand it was a big year last year. Houston made a jump that was a step or two bigger than most people thought, and so I get why you'd anticipate there could be uh a jump back from that. They have to go to Utah in addition to that road game at Texas Tech. I mean, outside of that, the schedule seems fairly manageable. They are going to K-State. So if you're if you're on this list thinking, hey, I'm buying K-State at eight and a half, uh, potentially being over there, then yeah, that's another really tough road game for Houston. So they've they've got some tough roadies on the schedule. Arizona fans might be a little perturbed by this. Same with Arizona State, but we're really talking about schedule there. I mean, Arizona State, especially, that's just that's not much of a statement on Arizona State's actual talent and roster this year, which I think I think stands a chance to be deeper with speed, athleticism, and talent. It's just not going to be the high-end Sam Levitt, Jordan Tyson that you had grabbing headlines last year. But man, they've got to go to college station in the non-con, and then they've got to go to BYU and tech. It's a tough, tough schedule. Oklahoma State, five and a half. I mean, if you're somebody buying Oklahoma State, that to me is the most interesting one on the board. I'm I'm not a betting man at all. But if I were, I'd be looking at that like, hey, it seems like Oklahoma State is rolling the dice uh enough here with a big enough bag of talent to work with that that could really hit. And five and a half is a low number. You're telling me they just have to be a bull team by adding what some places consider to be a top 10 or 15 transfer portal class with arguably the best portal quarterback playing for the same coach that he played for last year. Like, yeah, I don't, I'm that's that's enticing to me, my friend. That's enticing. And then boy, Colorado. Colorado stuck in the bottom at four and a half. I don't, it's hard to argue too much. It just feels like the life has been completely sucked out of that program. Maybe it comes back, but it it really has been sucked out of the buffs uh lately. So we'll see. We'll see. Um that's gonna wrap it up for me here tonight. Let me know what you think in the comments, of course. And please sign up for the opening for business Big 12 newsletter at OFBnews.com. That is OFBnews.com. You can like and subscribe uh as well. Totally for free, it really helps out. John Dash Kurtz-4 on Venmo. If you weren't able to catch this live and you still want to be a part of the conversation, that goes for you guys listening on podcast too. If you have a question or comment that you would like me to answer, that is a great way to get in touch. And thank you to everybody listening on Spotify and Apple, etc. It's always an option for you guys. We are growing, growing like wildfire on the audio platform. So thank you to everybody who is there. Uh, appreciate the chat lively tonight, as always. Uh, I hope you all have a great start to your week. Hope you're gonna have a great week of the fourth short work week for everybody in the corporate world. Uh, so it's gonna be great. Take care, and I will talk to you soon.