Market Outlook Live! (Jun 11, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

JOIN THE COMMUNITY VIA PATREON/DISCORD:
Become a "Premium Member" by subscribing on Patreon ( https://www.patreon.com/dtoptions ).  This gets you access to the Discord, including the daily voice chats on market days, as well as access to exclusive video content posted on Patreon, including all of the daily voice chats in their entirety.

BUY DT'S BOOK
🛍️ The Super Wheel Options Strategy: https://amzn.to/3v7gAXh

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

On the YouTubes. So had a little bit of a technical issue. So we're starting the stream about three minutes late. I apologize for those that were waiting. But it looks like we are back and we're we're cooking with gas. So uh let me actually preview the stream. Yeah, it looks like I have working audio, so I was having some audio issues. Um doing live streams is always a bit uh of an issue here, so uh give me just a couple of minutes to get things straight here. So I've been uh playing with the idea, obviously, on market outlook. This has typically been a uh podcast I do once a week, a lengthy podcast where I preview the entire week ahead. And now I'm doing these where we're doing these more of a on a daily basis. So hopefully you guys are enjoying the uh the little change up here. So having a little bit of an issue here getting the scenes here and OBS registray here.

SPEAKER_00 1:21

I am not sure what is going on with that.

SPEAKER_01 1:34

But let's take a look at what the markets are doing today. So let's jump into the charts. So right now the ES, if we pull up the chart of the ES, is unchanged on the day. We're up 55 cents, so or down 25 cents. Now that's actually the XSP chart, but the ES chart is a very similar looking chart. We were down uh overnight, then we rallied uh this morning after the stock market opened, then we've since sold back off to being unchanged on the day. This is a market that to me, all morning, looks like it has no idea where the hell it wants to go. And I don't know where it's going today. Initially, it really looked like this market wanted to have an update. It had that look and feel, all right. It had that that bull market kind of feel to it where you know we've sold off, obviously. We've had a downtrend. But this morning we had a PPI report uh at 7:30 a.m. Central, the hour before market opened. The PPI came in. It was uh a little hot, hotter than expected, just a little bit. And the market really didn't react in a negative way to that. Uh uh there was a tweet by uh President Trump that he wants to bomb Iran tonight. So and that happened like five minutes before the PPI report came out, and that did spook the market a little bit. The market kind of sold off a little bit uh right after he announced that we've got uh obviously a big news story tomorrow with the SpaceX IPO coming out tomorrow. Um, a lot of the AI-related names look like they were strong uh this morning. They have since kind of cooled off. But right now, yeah, the ES uh pretty much unchanged down two points. Definitely has been trending downward here in the last few minutes. Clearly, if I zoom in on a one-minute chart here in the ES, you can see uh it's starting to stair step lower today. So I was holding some shares of TQQQ, the triple levered Nasdaq uh ETF, and I got out of those shares this morning. I was scalping them a little bit and I did make a little money. I made like 70, 80 bucks on it, nothing uh worth talking about because the market really didn't move much in the 30 minutes or so I held those shares, but I got out of those shares pretty quickly because I I could kind of tell that this market, even though initially I was bullish, it really I'm just not sure on it. So it was a risky position being triple levered on an ETF. So I got out of it, and you know, I may jump back in tomorrow, uh, especially tomorrow. I think tomorrow we may have a bullish day because of the enthusiasm around the SpaceX IPO. The Nasdaq, unlike the uh ES, the NQ, is actually still up on the day, still green, up 123 points, up about half a percent. But again, overnight it was lower. And this morning it rallied, has since sold back off to being up, but just barely up. The RTY futures. Let's take a look at the Russell 2000 futures here. These are definitely the strongest of the uh the index products. So the Russell 2000 up 1.2 percent on the day, that's a 33 point up move, and you can see uh it has uh sold off from its highs, but just barely, unlike the ES and the NQ, which seem like they want to give up all their gains. The Russell is hanging in there strong. If you take a look at the VX futures, uh the volatility index futures, the VX, uh you can see it's had a huge range. Right now, it is up 19 cents. When I got up this morning, it was down about 15-20 cents. Uh, but you can see it's been all over the place today. So volatility expanding a little bit right now. It was contracting earlier in the day. Again, I don't know where this market is going today. So, you know, just be careful if you're trading this market, just uh trade small. Might want to put on some more defined risk trades rather than undefined risk trades in this kind of uh murky waters we're kind of uh swimming in right now. Taking a look at some of the futures that are moving lower today, the biggest mover to the downside, the NG futures, that's natural gas. Natural gas down three and a half percent on the day. We take a look at the metals. The metals are a big story because gold and silver, the precious metals, have been really weak lately. And silver is down about three-quarters of a percent right now. It was actually down like two and a half percent this morning when I got up, so it's rallied a little bit, but the chart in silver looks bad. And you see, in the last couple of months, silver has gone from uh the SI futures here, the SIN contracts has gone from $90 to at one point this morning got down to 61 and change. That is a gigantic uh decrease in silver in the last just few weeks. So that kind of sucks for me because I'm long silver, I've got shares of SLV, the ETF. I've also got a couple of short calls against it, I've also got a short put against it, kind of doing a covered strangle type uh scenario around shares of SLV. But because of the shares, it's a very bullish position, and this has not been great for that share position. GC, which is the gold futures, has also uh had an ugly run here. You can see its chart looks very similar to silver's right now. GC trading at 4100, um, just a tad over 4100, 4101, uh, but it's down three-quarters of a percent. So if you zoom out, you can see its long-term chart, very similar, had a high back here. Remember the big run up in gold and silver back in January, early February, and then the big crash, which the crash hurt me too because I was holding some shares of SLV during the crash. And then we rallied a little bit and then sold off, rallied, sold off. Um, and right now, though, gold is trading about as low as it's traded since October of last year. So uh October, November was the last time we were this low in gold. Silver is as low as it's been, I think, since the beginning of the run-up back in January. If I take a look at, yeah, this is the lowest silver is traded since actually December of last year. So gold and silver looking really nasty right now. Uh some of the other futures that are moving around, if we take a look at futures that are moving higher that are not the index futures, uh the BTC futures. Bitcoin is rallying a little bit today. You can see this chart very ugly on the way down. Bitcoin right now, the BTC futures trading just under 63,000. They look like they found a bottom. It looks like five trading sessions ago when we hit this level right under 60,000, looked like that was the floor as we tested it a second time, kind of tested it again, but actually we were getting higher lows each of these candles, and it's like, uh, maybe that's the bottom. Maybe the bottom's in here. Maybe we're gonna trade in a range for a little while. That's my thinking here, just taking a quick look at the chart. Ethereum, if we take a look at the ETHA, or excuse me, not ETHA, that's the ETF slash ETH is the Ethereum futures. Uh, they were actually up. Well, yeah, uh with Bitcoin up three quarters of a percent. Uh Ethereum is up um $12 today, trading at $16.44. Its chart looks very similar. Had a bottom uh that it made about five trading sessions ago, tested it, and it's been kind of trading in a range ever since. ZB is up today, the 30-year bond is up 13 ticks, trading at 111.31. So that's a nice bounce in the bonds. CL, which is your crude oil futures, this is the CL N6 contract, trading just a hair over $90 a barrel, up about 15 cents on the day, basically unchanged on the day. So with all the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the talk of war, uh the bomb starting to drop again later this evening. Um, yeah, oil's not doing much. So overall, I would say this market, I don't know if this market's really concerned about the war, as much as it's concerned about some of the uh economic data, inflation. This market's concerned about inflation. That seems to be the case. And the AI trade. A lot of you know, there's some fear in the market around the AI build-out, capital expenditures with some of these AI-related names. Uh, is the market in a bubble? Are we in an AI bubble that's about to burst? No, there's a lot of a lot of fear and uncertainty around some of that. Uh for me, yeah, I don't know if the AI thing is a bubble. I think the AI uh trade still has plenty of room to run. I think inflation, I think uh I think some of the uh inflationary fears are really what is holding this market back a little bit. Taking a quick look at some of my positions here, uh obviously we've got some MES stuff going on. Um, the main trades here are some put ratio spreads in MES, which uh right now the ES is back to green, but even if it's a little lower, put ratio spreads are kind of neutral to slightly bearish kind of trades. The the ES, the MES, it's not gonna do anything today that's gonna hurt these trades. So I don't have anything to worry about really with my positions there. Uh mainly these are more downside plays than anything else because I hold a lot of bullish positions and other stuff, such as XSP, which is the SP 500 uh index. This is the mini uh SPX. So it's one-tenth the size of SPX, got a lot of butterfly spreads here. Uh a couple of them expire tomorrow. I've got this foot butterfly, which right now I am inside the spread. We're trading at just under 729. The center of the butterfly is 731, so I'm really where I need to be. I just need to be here tomorrow, and I stand the chance to potentially make. Well, what did I pay for the trade? I paid uh a 145 debit for the spread, and it looks like my max profit on this is going to be somewhere around $650. So that's what I could potentially make. Now, the realistic uh expectations are I'm not gonna make the max profit because that's pinning the short strike exactly at expiration. But I'd like to make you know two, three bucks on this trade. And the reason I'd like to make two or three bucks on this trade is because I got a call uh butterfly spread that's going to expire tomorrow. Call butterfly is a max loser. Uh, I have no chance on this ever coming back to me. I'm well out of the money because I put this on three weeks ago and the market sold off in a big way, especially in the last week. So it basically turned this into a max loser. I paid uh a buck 34 for this, paid a buck 45 for this one, and I fight I'd like to take uh you know two bucks, two and a half bucks. That way I I kind of you know uh paid for this trade plus made a little bit of a profit. And then I've got some other both put butterflies and call butterflies later uh next week, and then the week after, because I ladder into these. I put these on at 21 DTE every week. So I've got a lot of put and call butterflies, but the ones expiring this week, again, the call butterfly almost certainly is going to be a max loser. And then the put butterfly has the chance to uh make me a little something. It'll depend on the move we make uh today and especially the move tomorrow. The SpaceX IPO, we get a big move up in the market, might hurt the put butterfly because then it might move outside of it to the upside. But it's a broken wing put butterfly. I can't lose on this trade to the upside. I'll make a little bit, but where I make the most money is if we set right here. And I don't know that's probably asking a lot for the market to sit here for the next uh day and a half. I don't really expect that to happen, but it would be nice for that trade. Uh the semiconductors are strong today. SMH, I've got a call debit spread, out-of-the-money call debit spread. So I'm betting on SMH going up in the next 36 days. We are up nicely today, up $18.66. That's a nice move. And I think that's partly why the NQ is holding on. Now the NQ up 272 points. It's a 1% up move. The NQ is hanging in there. I think it's all semiconductors. It's the AI trade. Right now, Intel is up $6, one of the chip names. Uh ARM is up $18, one of the chip names. I don't have positions in MU right now, but MU is up $21. That's a 2.5% up move. Not much of an up move in Micron, because Micron does move in some pretty drastic ways sometimes, but AMD is up nicely. AMD is up $15, trading at $46 or excuse me, $467.84 a share. So still hanging up there in that uh range. It's been in ever since uh earnings uh got up to around $500 a share there a little while ago. Nvidia is up a buck twenty today. Yeah, so I think the AI trade is still propping up this market a little bit. Now let's talk about some earnings from yesterday. The big earnings play yesterday was Oracle. Uh Oracle, I played it with an upside call debit spread. I was betting on it to go up. It actually went down. It's down $21 on the day. But for those that were watching uh the way the options episode, if you're a member of the channel and click the join button down below, you get my members-only content, which is the way the options episodes every Tuesday and Thursday. I played this with a call debit spread. Uh and I played it, I believe I bought the 260 call and sold the 270 call. So I bought a call debit spread up here, betting on an upside move. Uh, we got a downside move. But remember, I did the call debit spread at 72 DTE. I put some time on that trade. Why did I put some time on that trade? For this exact reason. Even though I was betting on this thing to go up, you never know. Nobody knows where anything's gonna go. And I got the move wrong. So now I have 71 days on that trade to potentially get a reversal and hopefully have it come back to me, have it come back in my direction to potentially, hopefully, uh potentially make a profit at some point, or maybe even just get back to break-even and get out of the trade. That's why a lot of times on these trades, especially directional trades, sometimes I like giving them a little time. That way, if you get direction wrong, you have time to wait it out and potentially let the stock come back to you. Got a trade right now on an IWM, which is the Russell ETF. Now, the Russell 2000 we mentioned uh is having a good day today, but it's been, you know, as the market was going down the last few days, uh, I had a problem. I got this put credit spread. And the short put on this put credit spread is that 282 and a half. We go to the chart of IWM. Uh right now IWM is trading at 285.76.

SPEAKER_02 16:22

And the chart is taking a second to load here.

SPEAKER_01 16:27

Taking a good while to load. There we go. And as the market was having some rough days here, we had one day here where IWM sold off all the way down to 277, you know, $5 below the short put on that put credit spread. So it was in the money, and I was a little worried. I was like, I better protect this position. How do you protect a put credit spread? Well, you sell a call credit spread against it because you can't lose on both the put credit spread and the call credit spread, as long as they're not inverted, as long as you've got basically I I've got an iron condor on, a pretty tight iron condor. I've got the 282 and a half short put, and on the call credit spread, I've got the 295 short call. But now I've lessened uh a potential max loss, where the max loss on the put credit spread by itself would be quite a bit bigger than by me not selling the call credit spread against it. So that's how you minimize the damage on a put credit spread that's kind of going against you. And this is also how you would uh defend a call credit spread that's going against you. If you sold a call credit spread, you were bearish on something and it starts going higher, and your call credit spread ends up being at the money or slightly in the money. Go ahead and sell a put credit spread against it because that will lessen that max loss potential on that call credit spread. Because again, you can't lose on both the put spread and the call spread as long as they're not inverted. You should never go inverted on these spreads. You should never like have an iron condor where the put credit spread and the call credit spread have become where the put credit spreads above the call credit spread. You never want to do that. Sometimes we will go inverted on strangles, but that's a little different. Those can be managed. Um inverted uh credit spreads are usually not something you want to do. And taking a quick look at some other positions here. GDX, we got a short put and two short calls. So kind of a strangle, but uh short put versus two calls at different strikes and different expirations. Overall, though, it is a bullish trade because I've got seven total positive deltas. So I've got a lot more deltas on the one put. Yeah, it's 28 delta put versus the calls, which one of the calls is nine delta, the other is 13 deltas. So overall, slightly positive deltas on this trade, and I wanted to be bullish on this trade. This trade originally was just a short put, but the short put started getting killed. I had to add a call, and then I added a second call, right? So I've rolled it a couple of times. I've rolled the put out uh from the July monthly cycle to the August monthly cycle, sold a call in the August cycle against it, sold a call in the July cycle against it. Yeah, it's a trade I've been fighting, still down a little bit on the trade, but just a little bit, down $125. Uh, so not a terribly big loss that I'm staring at, but we're just fighting this a little bit, adding those short calls, trying to chip away at this. If we get some sideways to slightly higher action uh in GDX, this uh negative PL should uh go away pretty quickly. Uh we've got 36 days on one short call, 71 days on this short put in this short call. So kind of a calendarized kind of trade to at some point I want to clean all of this up. And once I chip away at some of this loss, I'll probably, if I could get back to break even, I probably just close all of this mess and get back into a brand new trade. Uh probably a brand new strangle uh just to clean this up where it's a mess right now with all the different strikes, different expirations. Uh anything else that I need to pay attention to today, not really SCHD. Uh this particular uh Schwab Dividend ETF. I know a lot of you guys probably know about SCHD. A lot of you guys have uh passive investments, uh whole shares of this thing. It's having a nice day, up 23 cents. Not exactly sure uh what components of that are having a nice day. I know some of the bigger components of it uh since its last uh reconstitution was uh Qualcomm. And uh you know I'm pretty sure Qualcomm's probably up on the day since the uh all the chip names are up. Yeah, Qualcomm is up uh 2% on the day. Texas Instruments is another one that's uh component of SCHD. It's another chip uh related name. Yeah, it's up 2.6% today. So those two components of SCHD are up, probably helping. Um there's also some energy components to SCHD and them. Don't have any energy related stocks, but I'll take a look at XLE, the energy sector ETF, up very slightly. Up uh 0.2%, not much of a move. What's ExxonMobil doing today? XOM also not moving much, uh basically unchanged on the day up 15 cents. All right. Yep, appreciate the help there, uh Javier in the chat. He says, Yeah, you can hear me well. Yep. Yeah, we were having some audio issues on uh when I first started the stream. I started the stream and I realized my audio was not working, so I had to kill the stream uh and recreate the stream. And so we started the stream about two or three minutes late because when I first started the stream, had no working audio. But it was my fault. Uh I just hadn't turned on my uh my audio server rack. I had to go back there and turn the on button on. So sometimes uh you know, one of the things with being a content creator is sometimes uh your you are your own worst enemy when it comes to audio video issues. Uh sometimes it's just hey, did you turn the thing on? Alright. Um for those of you in the YouTube chat, we got a couple of people watching. You guys, if you guys got any questions or comments, get them in now. Otherwise, we will call it an episode as we sit here and watch this market. Right now, the ES up 18, NASDAQ up 255. Yeah, I think we're gonna eke out a green day. I I think now we're late enough in the day that I think the market is going to be alright. Again, I thought this this market looked like it wanted to go up today. The only thing that scares me why I uh got out of those shares of TQQQ today, and I didn't want to hold them because I was trying to scout today because I I thought today would be the day we'd go up. The Trump tweet about Iran. And I we're gonna probably get more news about that today. You know, he'll speak, yeah, we're gonna bomb the hell out of them, and then later, oh, we're still talking, negotiation, like you're gonna get all of that. And I don't know how that's gonna move the market.

SPEAKER_02 23:06

So for me, you know, you know, I I'm gonna uh have to be careful with what I do uh on a day where there is some geopolitical risk.

SPEAKER_01 23:18

So alright, guys, appreciate you guys hanging out, and that is it for today's episode of Market Outlook. I will be back tomorrow at 10 a.m. Central Standard Time for another Market Outlook Live. Alright, guys, peace.