Market Outlook Live! (Jun 12, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

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Should be live. Welcome to another Market Outlook Live. Today we're gonna take a look at what is going on in the market. Today is an interesting day because, of course, it is uh SpaceX IPO day. Excuse me. I was previewing the stream audio there. Looks like everything is good for those in the YouTube chat. Uh, give me a yay or an a on the audio level. Does everything sound okay? Um quick look at what the market is doing right now. Uh we have a positive day on the market. Pretty much all the indices are green. The ES right now is up 47 points. That is about a two-thirds of a percent up move today. Uh, the NQ right now is also up on a similar uh percentage basis, up about two-thirds of a percent, up about 195. The Russell is up. Oh wow, the Russell is up an astounding 47 points. That's the RTY futures. That is a 1.6% move in the small caps there in the Russell 2000. That's the your small cap index. So yeah, the market is definitely to me wanting to go up today. Although we've had some good two-sided action today, we've had a lot of back and forth. The ES and the NQ both have been hovering positive, negative, positive, negative, right? They've kind of been going back and forth. So uh, whichever side of this market you're playing, whether you're a bull or a bear, today you've had some good uh two-sided uh opportunities in both directions. Right now, the VIX futures are down 34 cents. That's the VXN contract. So the VIX uh futures trading at $20.13, and that is a pretty nice decline in volatility here. And you can actually see the last two days, volatility has really contracted. A lot of that has to do with the news uh around uh what was going on in the Middle East as far as the US and Iran, the conflict. Maybe there's a deal, maybe there's not. I think some of that is why the volatility has contracted the way it has. The big news on the day, though, is today is SpaceX IPO day. So if I take a look at the ticker SPCX uh here inside Tasty Trade, it is not trading, it is not available for me as a retail trader to trade yet. It's not available for you guys yet, but I am getting a bit S spread. I can see uh I say a bit S spread, it's not really a spread, it's just a price. 162 even a share. So um, you know, before you and I are allowed to trade this, there are other people, you know, that it's already on the exchange. Um, some uh exchange traders are trading this, and the price already around $162 a share. That is an increase from where where it was supposed to uh have that initial public offering of around $135 a share. So if you guys want to buy shares, you're gonna have to pay a little bit of a premium for it. Now, right now, it doesn't look like I could buy shares if I click the ass price here. And let's try to buy one share. Um, one or more legs of this order. Yeah, there's no bid ass spread, there's no last price, no change, change percentage. I could uh enter this order, but it's just never gonna get filled, it's just gonna sit there until SpaceX starts actually trading, and then it might get filled. But I don't want to just have that sitting there because who knows where SpaceX will be trading when it actually starts trading, right? So it could be uh something crazy, some crazy price. So get rid of that order, but you know, for those waiting, you may have to wait a little later into the morning before SpaceX really starts trading. Let's take a look at some of the other uh non-indexed futures that are trading, even though I think today is all about SpaceX and what's going on with equities, your uh SP and your NASDAQ. Wool is a major player here today because of, of course, geopolitical tensions, the Middle East. Right now, the CLN6 contract is down almost $3. It's uh trading just under $85 a barrel. And that is huge because that's a new recent low. I mean, that's as low as it's been in two months. So crude oil going down in price, I think is a positive. I think that's part of the reason why the market has been strong the last couple of days, is because crude oil has been coming down. I think you know, rising fuel prices, that's a burden on the market. As crude oil comes down, I think the market naturally will react in a positive way. I mean, that's a 3% down move in the CL futures here today. Uh, also, the bonds, the bonds are taking a little bit of a breather today. They had a huge upday yesterday. The ZB, the 30-year bond, is down 11 ticks today. That's about a 0.3% down move. But again, we had a big up move yesterday. Uh, right now the ZB is trading at 112.10, and the ZN is also uh down a little bit today, down four ticks trading at 109.17.5. So both the bonds and the notes, uh the 10-year notes down a little bit today. Um, I do think the bond market uh needs a little bit more strength, right? I think uh rising yields um has been hurting the market. Rising yields means the bond prices are going lower. We need to see yields go lower and the bonds go higher. Uh, I think the the equity markets would respond positively to that. Some of the futures moving up today. So gold and silver have looked like death recently, but they're having big up days today. I think they're part of this rally today. Uh the silver futures are up almost 5% on the day. Right now, SI trading just a hair over $67. And that helps me a lot because I've got this uh silver position I've been in for a while. Pretty bullish silver position. That uh I've got some shares that are getting killed. Um, let's say getting killed. I've been in this position for a while. I've sold a lot of options around this position. I treated this kind of as a covered strangle. Right now I've got uh one short put out at 70 days. I've got two short calls out in 35 days, so that's the uh July uh monthly cycle and the August monthly cycle. And I've been selling a lot of options around the share position pretty much all year. I've made a few hundred dollars on options, uh selling uh puts and calls around the shares. So even though I'm down on the shares, now if I hold on to the shares long enough, it'll come back to me where I can get out at least break even, maybe even make a few bucks on the shares. And by the time I get out, if I make a few hundred dollars on the shares, make a oh, a few hundred dollars, maybe a couple thousand dollars on the options. You know, it could be a nice position. Right now, though, this chart in silver and the chart in gold have me a little concerned because they are definitely trending lower, and you can see long term. If I uh wait for the chart to load and zoom out a little bit, yeah, they're definitely, well, you can see the last month, month and a half, they have definitely been trending to the downside. That's silver. If I take a look at GLD, which is the gold ETF mirrors the gold futures, uh, you can see an even more pronounced bearish trend in gold. Really, for the last two, maybe three months, gold has been in a clear bearish trend, and it's started to waterfall over, right? So, you know, you're gradually going down, but then the moves down are getting a bit more substantial, right? The waterfall effect here. But we had a a big up day in gold yesterday, getting an unchanged day in gold today, as far as the ETF here. Now, if you're looking at the GC futures, um, which you get a more continuous kind of contract because obviously gold trades overnight, but we you can see we get the the pop today, basically. It's just you got a bit of a gap here. Overall, though, uh, I'm bullish in silver and gold. Uh, I mean gold long-term, it's hard not to be uh a bull in gold as far as if you're doing long-term plays. Now, short-term plays, yeah, you can get some good two-sided action actually in both gold and silver. Uh, copper right now is also up big. Um, I say up big, two and a half percent. That's a pretty good move in copper. Copper, though, unlike gold and silver, has been strong recently. You can see it's trading toward the upper end of its recent range. So definitely it's not uh the same chart as gold and silver. Copper has definitely had some real uh strength here. Uh, some other things moving around. Bitcoin, uh, the crypto markets have been depressed for really about a year now. You can see in the last couple of months, Bitcoin sold off in a huge way, traded all the way down in the BTC futures to just under 59,000, where it found a floor, bounced off that floor uh two, three, four times. Kind of it's found a ranger where it looks like it wants to trade in this range around, well, right now it's trading at 64,000 and change. But I would say you know the range it's found is somewhere between 60,000 and 64,000. So could be a situation where it trades sideways for a while, might be a good idea for trade, maybe stringles, uh, especially in a product like ibit, which is the ETF for Bitcoin. Has an IV rank of only 25, though. So IV in Bitcoin is actually not very high. Um, but I'm gonna go with a 35-day cycle. Let's just price a one standard deviation stringle. I'll sell the 16 delta put and I will sell the 18 delta call, 87 cents credit on a buying power reduction of a thousand dollars. That's a very high buying power reduction on this product for whatever reason. Tasty trade, the uh buying power on iBit is quite high, uh, especially for a ETF that's only $36 a share. A lot of times you'd get a buying power reduction on a product like this that's only you know $300, $400 maybe. Uh, for whatever reason, they're requiring quite a bit more buying power on this product, makes it uh not worth trading, to be honest, because you're putting up too much money in reserve. You know, the buying power you know has to be sitting in your account, uh sitting on the sidelines for you to take that trade, and it makes the trade no longer worth it uh as far as a return on capital because you've got so much buying power tied up for the credit. Now, if it was a $300 buying power, then that would be a really attractive trade. But a $1,000 buying power is just not attractive as at all for a trade. Uh getting back into uh some of my positions here, let's actually take a look at what I've got going on. We talked about silver, uh the ES up 45 today. I've got a lot of put ratio spreads. Well, not a lot, three put ratio spreads on in MES. These are kind of standard uh core strategies of mine. I put these on typically at 90 days, and then I just let them run for the most part. Uh, these are your standard two by one front ratio spreads in MES, and these are fantastic. Uh, they probably have a win rate of 98%, right? It's very high win rate. Uh, you do have some downside protection because even though a lot of people think a put ratio spread is a bullish trade, it's more of a neutral to bearish trade. So even if you get a market pullback, that's actually how these things profit the most, is actually on a grind down kind of bear market. A bull market, though, can't hurt me as long as I got a credit on the trade. I'm making a little bit on the way up as well. So uh put ratio spreads, one of my favorite strategies. So that's uh one of the SP 500 products I have a trade on. Then uh XSP, which is the mini SPX. I've got a lot. The I've got one, two, three, four, seven different uh butterfly spreads, a mixture of call butterflies and put butterflies. The put butterflies are broken wing butterflies. The call butterflies are also broken wing, but I break them the opposite way you would think, where I break them where I pay a debit on the trade, and I can't lose to the upside on the calls. The put butterflies, I break them the normal way where I receive a credit on the trade, and I also can't lose to the upside on the uh put flies. And the reason I break both of them to where I can't lose to the upside is because of the positive drift of the market. That's the way I like to play these. So these are campaign trades. I put these on at 21 DTE every Friday. Today is a Friday, and I put on the new badge, both a put broken wing butterfly and a call butterfly. Put that on this morning because it's 21 days, you know, three Fridays from now, except there's not a Friday trading day three Fridays from now, because that will be July 3rd, which will be a stock market holiday in observance of the fourth, which falls on a Saturday. But the stock market, you know, well all street professionals, they they've got to get a holiday too. You know, your federal employees have to get a holiday as well. So anytime July 4th or any federal holiday falls on a weekend, they're usually going to give them the Friday or the Monday. They're kind of give them the Friday this year. So July 3rd will be a holiday. So instead of a 21-day uh butterfly, I had to put on 20 days. So they will expire Thursday, three weeks from now. And you can see I've got a lot of these that I've legged into. And you know, I'm just letting those work right now. Uh, other than that, I've got a spy uh double diagonal I just put on for next Tuesday. Very short dated trade, just something uh playing around with. It's actually part of one of the trading plans we have on the uh DT Options Discord and DTOptions.com websites. That's my for my members, uh, for my patron members and my Discord members. Got some shares of TQQQ that I uh bought into a couple of hours ago, playing for the market to go up a little bit today. So I'm holding some shares of that, and that's working out well. SCHD for those that are long-term passive investors. You guys probably know about the Schwab dividend ETF SCHD. Fantastic dividend uh paying uh um ETF that's not really it doesn't pay a huge dividend, only like a 3.5-4% dividend. But the stocks do appreciate in value. You see the share position has appreciated greatly in value uh this year. Um, so yeah, that's a nice fund to hold, and it typically doesn't move quite with the rest of the market, so it's a nice way to diversify a little bit. Up 37 cents today. That's a huge move in this thing because it's only a $32.90 stock. That's the price right now $32.90. So a move of 37 cents is a pretty decent size move in this uh ETF that holds, you know, quite a large basket of stocks. Some other things that jump out at me, uh earnings. I've already managed some trades today. I did play Adobe for Earnings yesterday. I put on a put butterfly, a zero. Well, uh yesterday, it would have been a one DTE put butterfly. And I a put butterfly I do to the expected move to the downside. And I got it. Adobe went down exactly where I needed it to be for that butterfly, and I went ahead and took a small profit. I took uh I want to say I took 50 cents, maybe a buck. It wasn't much. It my butterfly was a little lower than where Adobe is trading at now. So it didn't get into the spread. So it wasn't it wasn't something I could hold on to because the market is rallying, and Adobe has rallied. So it would have been perfect had it actually went down from there. It would have gone into the spread. I could have made maybe two, three, four hundred bucks, but it was going the opposite direction. But it made enough of the move in my direction that I was able to get out for a small profit. I also played Tesla to the downside today. I put on a one DTE, put butterfly in it, thinking Tesla might trade lower today as people maybe sell some of their Tesla shares to play SpaceX. That kind of happened this morning. It actually did sell off early in the day and has since rallied. But when it sold off, it got close enough to my butterfly that I took it off for a very small profit. And I wasn't trying to profit on that trade at that point because I realized I wasn't going to get a big enough move to for this to fall into the butterfly. Yeah, it made a move in the direction where it turned positive for the PL for a quick second, and I was like, well, let me just take a few bucks, you know, a few pennies here of profit and get out of the trade because the trade really just it didn't work for me, but it didn't cost me anything. I was able to get out for essentially a scratch, a very small, you know, few cent uh winner. Uh other than that, taking a quick look at some things moving around today. JP Morgan is up almost $7. That is a big move. That's 2.15% move in JP Morgan. The financials have been strong recently. I've got an iron condor that I've been in for 25 days, still have 35 days. I've rolled this a couple of times in defense. Uh well, the put spread. I have to keep rolling it up because as JP Morgan goes up, it's gonna start threatening the call credit spread side of that iron condor. So um I may need to go ahead. I've got a 37 delta short call and then a 19 delta short put. So yeah, we're definitely a little lopsided, right? I need JP Morgan to stop going up. I could use a down day here. Um, but what I'm gonna have to do is I'm just if it keeps going up, I'm gonna keep rolling the put credit spread side up to collect more credit, collect more credit. If I have to roll it all the way up to the 330 uh strike with the call, I'll turn it into an iron fly instead of an iron condor, and then hope JP Morgan maybe trade sideways for a little while after that. That's just the way I have to defend that. I've already done this, the same kind of trade in IWM. So IWM's your Russell 2000 uh ETF. I sold a put credit spread, and then the market went down right after I sold that put credit spread in a pretty big way. This was a few days ago, and this was in the money. So because it was in the money, I sold a call credit spread against it to turn it into an iron condor. And then, of course, the market in the last couple of days has rallied pretty big to where now the call credit spread you can see is in the money. So what I ended up doing was rolling the put credit spread all the way up to where the short put is now uh the same strike as the short call on the credit spread. Uh so now I've turned what was originally a put credit spread and then into an iron condor and now into an iron butterfly. Uh, and now just like the JP Morgan trade, what I'm gonna need, I need the Russell 2000 to not go anywhere for a week or two. Or, you know, trade is gonna move around, but I need it to move kind of in a range back and forth and stay somewhere in the vicinity of this iron butterfly, so I can chip away a little bit at the loss that I'm staring at on this trade. Uh Intel is making a big move today, up $6. That's helping this put. I was down uh two, three hundred dollars on this put just a few days ago because Intel has been down big. I've been fighting uh the trade here. I say I've been fighting, I actually have not rolled this option at all. Been in it two weeks. It has come back to me, though. I'm now showing up positive PL. Now I just wait. Uh typically on a short put, I wait for 50% max profit. Right now I'm only at 18%. So I wait till I get to 50% or 21 DTE, whichever one comes first. Right now I'm only at 35 DTE. So I've got at least two weeks to wait unless I hit 50% max profit, then I'll close the trade for a winner. So it's working out beautifully. Just let that keep working. Uh anything else? My arm is making a crazy move. It was up $36 yesterday. It's up another $38 today. And I've got this call debit spread that was two, it was $200 out of the money. It's only got six days left. It was a max loser. There's no chance in hell I was gonna win on this trade. It was a trade I put on uh 11 days ago when ARM was making some crazy parabolic up moves, and then ARM pretty much crashed after I put on this trade, and there was no chance in hell I was gonna win on this trade. But after making more than $70 of an up move in two days, still got six days on the trade, I'm actually now no longer a max loser. I could close this trade and say 15 cents. Now 15 cents is nothing. I'm not gonna close it for 15 cents. I'm actually gonna hold on to it and see what ARM does over the weekend. If I come back on Monday and ARM is up another 50, 60 bucks, this trade could be interesting. I may not get back to break even, but I may not have to take much of a loss either. We'll see. Uh yeah, now the ES, and this market is really moving. It definitely wants to go up today. The ES is up 57, the NASDAQ is up 260, and the Russell is up a monster move of $47 up in the Russell. So, you know, quite a strong market. For those of you that are on the uh YouTube chat, if you're in the YouTube chat and you've got any questions or comments, feel free to post them as we uh really just sit here because right now uh I think the market is kind of in a wait and see game as far as the uh SpaceX IPO. Let me actually move this out a little bit so I can see a bid as spread on SPCX, the ticker for SpaceX. Um, still not getting a real bid ask. It looks like the price is $160. This is interesting because since the Nasdaq Exchange has started uh printing a price here, and again, we still can't trade it yet, but there's some institutional traders, some exchange traders that are already trading this. When it first gave me a price this morning, it was at 175, then it was at 174. A few minutes ago it was at 165, now it's at 160. It seems to be going down. So that's probably a a good thing, especially for those of us retail traders that maybe want to buy a few shares of this once we're allowed to. Maybe here later this morning, uh, maybe in the afternoon, I don't know when we'll be able to. But I don't want to pay. I don't want to pay $200 a share for this thing because I think that's uh that's kind of crazy that price. And because the valuation of this company at $135 a share was $1.8 trillion. It come if it had come out and say, hey, you know, it's $200 a share now when I can buy it, you know, then now they're saying that that would be a like a valuation of two and a half trillion, three trillion dollars. I don't know if the company is actually worth that. So uh I would be paying a price for shares that I'm probably overpaying at that point, but I think, yeah, it's coming down $160. If I could get shares at $150, yeah, I might pick up a few shares. I at least I don't feel as bad as far as uh I don't think I'm grossly overpaying for the shares at that point. Yeah. ES now up 58, NASDAQ, up 266. These markets definitely moving around real quick because I think this tells the story, the VX futures, the volatility futures, down 44 cents. That's a big contraction in volatility, down 2% today. It's a market that all signs point to this thing having an update. Nothing about today's market points to this thing turning around at all today. And of course, you never know. It could all it takes is one tweet from uh Donald Trump. All it takes is bombs starting to fall again in the Middle East. Uh, you know, things can happen, markets are random. You never can 100% predict things, but right now the market is telling you as of this second, because you've got to trade what's in front of you. The market's telling you it wants to go up today. So let's uh talk a little bit about next week. So next week uh is a stock market holiday. I want to warn people, especially for those of you that are uh newer to trading. Uh, a lot of times the federal holidays in the U.S., the stock exchanges are closed. Your major stock exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, they will be closed all day on those days. There will be no trading. Next Friday will be a stock market holiday. That will be the Juneteenth holiday here in the U.S. The stock exchanges will be closed. There'll be no trading. So just be aware, next week is a four-day trading week. And then the following week, you'll get all five days of trading. And then the following week you'll have another four-day trading week because that will be the July 4th holiday. Um, July 3rd falls on a Friday. Um, the federal employees will get that day off. Uh stock exchanges will be closed on the 3rd and in observance of the 4th, which will fall on the the next Saturday. But the Saturday is not a stock market holiday, and they have to get July 4th as a holiday every year. So anytime July 4th falls on a Saturday or Sunday, they're going to give them like the Friday or the Monday, you know, wrapped around the uh the weekend. So we've got a couple of holidays coming up. So you're going to get some shortened trading uh weeks here in the next couple of weeks. Other than that, I think that is about a wrap here for the uh the market outlook today. Not much going on. Looking ahead, uh, we're toward the end of earnings, although maybe we'll get some uh some new earnings uh coming up here. That we've got I think we've got a little bit of time before the next earnings season really kicks off, but I'm just quickly viewing the earnings calendar for next week, and literally, it's just horrible companies, like companies nobody cares about. Uh you've got things like Lazy Boy, which I don't think options really trade on that thing, it's not very liquid. Progressive Corp, Carmax, like these are very, very mediocre companies as far as earnings plays. Kroger, not one of my favorite things to trade. And then uh, yeah, and nothing uh as far as Friday because of stock market holiday. Very few companies. There was only like about a dozen companies reporting earnings next week, and um, of those 12 companies, only three or four of them had names that I actually recognized. So uh kind of in the the boring part of the year, a lot of times the summer uh is kind of boring with trading. A lot of times, uh, obviously vacations, people are taking uh you know, vacations, spring breaks, summer breaks. A lot of times the summer months are when the market does this slow stair step up. You know, you don't get a you know, I say you don't typically get a whole lot of volatility in the summer, at least it seems that way. You get a lot of volatility early in the year. It seems like you know, when you get, well, the last couple of years we've had the market meltdowns of 2025 uh and 2026. When did that happen? Well, it happened in February and March, right? Uh when do the big like market crashes tend to happen? A lot of people think yes, late in the year, you know, September, October, November, you know. The summer months tend to be those boring stair step up where you know your uh ES and NQ, they just do their thing, they just appreciate slowly in value. And that's nice, you know, especially for me being a perma bull where I'm pretty much always long uh the SP and the Nasdaq. Take a quick look at the SPX index here. We get a continuous chart here. You can see this very nice chart. Had a little bit of a pullback here. I think this was a healthy pullback, it wasn't much of a pullback, maybe four or five percent, you know, from the massive move we made up. To be honest, we could have pulled back at least twice this much, and I think the market would have been okay. I because I again I think we just moved so far up so fast. I think we needed to pull back a little bit. I'm a little surprised we didn't pull back more because I was my thinking was we had more room to the downside before we started the the crawl back up. But this market and the bulls are in firm control of this thing. ES now up 64 on the day. All right, guys. Well, that is it for this edition of Market Outlook Live, and I'll be back with you guys next week. Have fun trading and peace.