Market Outlook Live! (Jun 15, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

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Live. Welcome to another Market Outlook Live. For those hanging out in the YouTube chat, give me a yay or an A on the audio. Is the audio levels fine? Because I am not reviewing the audio myself. I'm gonna assume you can hear me though. Alright. So what is going on in the market today? Well, we've got a lot going on actually. Today is a huge upday, uh, really across most of the market. Let's actually jump into the charts here. If we take a quick look at what is going on with the market index futures, let's start with the ES, which of course is the SP 500 futures. We are up 1.7% today, up 128 points. We're trading at 76.25 now in the ES. The NQ futures, the NASDAQ futures, are up a whopping 838 points. That is a 2.8% gain on the day. And the Russell 2000 is up 26 points. That is a 0.87% gain in the Russell, so a little bit less of a move in the Russell than the ES and the NQ, but still a nice upday across the market. And volatility, of course, is contracting. If we take a look at the VX futures here, the VIX futures, uh, they're trading at 1868, and that is a drop of almost a full point. That's a 5% decline in volatility in one day. And all of this is brought on because of the war ending, right? The deal between the U.S. and Iran, I guess, is now pretty much a done deal. I mean, they haven't signed it, but both sides say, yeah, we're good. So CL, the CLQ contract here, the crude oil futures, is down $4, trading at $79.29. That's a huge down move, and that's the lowest uh price in CL that we've had in about two months. We have to go back all the way to this candle where we had this huge range and pushed down. Uh, this I actually was another day where there was possibly a deal that was going to get made that day. The market reacted in a positive way in the crude oil market, now positive way, meaning the price went down. Um, but ever since then, you know, we've been hanging out up here around 90 to $100 a barrel, and now we're pushing back down below 80. So the market is rejoicing because I mean that really is a big deal. The Strait of Hermuz should be open now, tankers are going to start moving, the oil's gonna start flowing. Hopefully, the energy uh futures get back to normal, the CL futures get back to normal, your uh Brent crude futures get back to normal. If we take a look at some of the futures that are moving around today, that is, of course, futures that are not crude oil or the index futures, we take a look at the downside, it's really all the energy futures. Oil, uh, both WTI and Brent, heating oil futures down 3%, gasoline futures down 2.6%, uh, natural gas futures down 0.3%, so not much of a move in natural gas. Uh, but yeah, that's the only thing moving lower today is the energy futures. Everything else is seeing huge moves to the upside, uh, basically because, again, uh a lot of this stuff has been depressed because of what's been going on with geopolitical tensions plus fears around inflation. You know, the market had a little bit of fear baked into it recently. But now things are just exploding higher. Ethereum is up 9.2% today, the Ethereum futures up 152 points, trading at 1817. And this is a huge move because uh crypto has been in free fall for several months now. Crypto really needed a good day, and Ethereum's having it. So is Bitcoin. If we take a look at the BTC futures, Bitcoin is up nearly 5% on the day, up 3,025. And that's trading just under 67,000. Looks like the BTC futures are trading at 66,685. So uh Bitcoin and Ethereum are having a day. The precious metals for those playing. I'm pretty much always long silver and gold. So uh I've been having a rough time because both silver and gold have looked like death recently. But the last two trading sessions, they've rebounded in a big way. Silver is up four percent today, the SI futures trading at $70.81, and I needed that in a big way. We move over to the GC futures, the gold futures. Um, we're up three and a quarter percent in gold today, up $137, and that is uh last price of GC trading at $4,376. Oh, big, big day in the precious metals. Other things moving around, the HG futures, that's your copper futures, are up 0.7 percent, but copper has not been beaten up the way gold and silver's been beaten up, copper trading near its highs. So copper's been strong. For those playing the agricultural futures, your corn, wheat, soybeans, all of those are up nicely today as well. Moving over to the bonds, let's take a look at the ZB futures, which is your 30-year bond. Uh 112.23 is the last price. That is an increase of 11 ticks in the bonds. That's about a 0.3% up move. We move over to Zn, the Zn futures are your 10-year notes, and they're trading uh a little higher, up uh 0.2 percent, that's a seven tick increase. Zn currently trading at 109 and 23 and a half. For those playing the currencies, let's take a quick look at what the euro is doing. I don't have it handy on my watch list, but 6e up a quarter of a percent today. We move over to some of the other major currencies. 6b, the British pound, up about 0.16 percent today. 6J is your Japanese yen. Um, basically unchanged on the yen today. 6A to Aussie dollar, which does tend to move around, especially uh when uh we're getting these kind of risk-on, risk-off kind of events. Uh the Aussie dollars got a lot of exposure to things that go on in Asia, especially. There's some correlation with copper and with what goes on in China. Um, 6A sometimes can do its own thing. And the Aussie dollar is up more than half a percent. So that's a pretty good move in one of the currency futures here. Taking a look at what some of the big tech stocks are doing today. Obviously, with the ES and the NQ up big today, a lot of your tech stocks are going to be moving. Uh, right now, we cert a sort by change percent to see what is moving uh higher. So the biggest movers to the upside, MU Micron up almost 100 points today, trading at 1074. That's uh a 9.5% increase in MU SpaceX. Of course, this just IPO'd on Friday, so this is only the second day of trading up $12.42, trading at $173, um, up about 7.5%. I did play the IPO on Friday. I bought a few shares. Uh I bought them around $160 a share and I sold them at $172.5. Made a little bit of change, but it was a one-day trade, just small trade. I played for fun. I don't know where SpaceX is going here in the next couple weeks. You're gonna have some volatility. You can already see with the first two candles, it's a volatile product because again, it's just now starting to trade. So be careful. This is not something I would tell people to go load up on a big share position right now. Um, now when the options start trading, I will trade the options. Um, I believe they're trying to rush uh getting the options listed. I think the options may start trading as early as tomorrow. Uh, right now, yeah, options are still not listed. So all you could do is uh buy the stock right now, and that's partly why the price is going up. Once we're able to play the options and potentially do some neutral or even uh bearish kind of trades in SpaceX, it becomes a little bit more interesting. Coinbase is up uh 7% on the day, and of course, that's because it's so heavily tied to what's going on with crypto with uh Bitcoin and Ethereum and all the uh the crypto related products up big day. Uh Coinbase is up big. Oracle is up uh about five and a half percent here. Oracle trading at 194.5, and pretty much all the tech stocks. You can pretty much see everything is green. Meta's up five percent, Palantir is up about five percent, Qualcomm's up four point three percent, arm is up four percent, Amazon's up three and a quarter percent, Google's up three percent, uh, and Amazon and Google are big companies. I mean, you're talking about you know multi-trillion dollar companies, Amazon being up almost eight points today. That's why the NASDAQ is up like two and a half percent today, is because Amazon is up big. Google, which is a multi-trillion dollar company, is up big, up uh $11. That's a 3% increase in Google. Um, Nvidia is up three percent, uh Broadcom's up 2.3%, Microsoft's up two percent, and you got a lot of stuff moving. Really, uh, it's a pretty broad market rally, too. It's not just the tech sector. If I go into my watch list here and go to some of my ETFs, sort by uh symbol here. I take a look at some of the sector-related ETFs, there's really gonna be one that's a big loser, and it's the obvious one XLE, which is the energy sector. Uh obviously, with all the energy futures coming down, oil, gas, and all those related products. This is down today, right? Energy is gonna be the one sector that really suffers, but pretty much everything else, consumer staples, which is a very defensive sector sector. Uh you know, consumer staples does well when the market's doing bad. And consumer staples doesn't do well when the market's doing good, the market's up big today. So people are rotating out of consumer staples, so it makes sense why it's down small today. XLV healthcare down a little bit today. Uh healthcare. Yeah, I I could use uh healthcare to go up a little bit. I'm actually long a couple of the healthcare names. I'm long uh AbV and I'm long Pfizer right now. So not good for me that that is down. Uh pretty much everything else is doing fine. Obviously, tech is up big, uh up 3.5% if we take a look at XLK, which is the tech sector ETF. I mean, that is why the NASDAQ, which two-thirds of the NASDAQ 100 is uh tech stocks, that explains the NASDAQ right there. Industrials are up 1.7% right now. Um basic materials. XLB is up uh almost 1% today. XLY, consumer discretionary, is up almost 2%. There, yeah. Again, a very broad market rally today. Let me go back into my watch list here, make sure I pull up the futures, because I do want to monitor this uh as I'm talking to you guys because I need to pay attention to what's going on with my portfolio. Uh yeah, right now I actually we should take a look at my portfolio. Right now, the uh ES, the MES, uh, I've got positions in up 130 points. That's that's a nice day. Got these put ratio spreads. Now, these put ratio spreads are mostly bearish kind of trades as far as they're I put these on kind of wide and to the downside, way below where the market is trading. These are kind of hedges, crash protection, basically. Uh, I don't have anything to do with these today because there's uh these things don't really get hurt in an upmarket because I put these on for a credit. I sold these for a credit, and because I sold these put ratio spreads for a credit, I can't lose to the upside. So there's no risk at all in the up market, and they do profit in a big down market potentially, but we're not getting that. So these are just again hedges, they're just insurance. Just let those keep working. Other than that, I mentioned I was long uh AB, I've got a call debit spread. Uh AB down big today. And but I've got 67 days on this spread. This is a call debit spread, the 250 and the 260. Uh AB trading at 221. I need AB to go up about $40 over the next two months. I don't know if I'm gonna get that, uh, but it is what it is at this point. Uh we'll just have to wait and see, but it's a defined risk trade. If it doesn't work out, the most I can lose is what I paid to buy the spread. So uh low risk, kind of high reward trade. ARM up $13. This is a call debit spread that it actually expires Thursday this week. Friday is a stock market holiday, so there's no Friday trading session this week. So Thursday is your weekly expiration this week. Um, this is gonna be a max loser. Uh, nothing I can do. Unless ARM has a hundred points of upside potential here in the next couple days. This is almost certainly going to be a max loss, already pretty much printing a 90% max loss already. Nothing to do. I'm just gonna let that expire worthless. No, it's a trade that you know would just expire worthless on uh Thursday, and then I'll put on something else. Uh Dell, this is another max loser, expires on Thursday. So the arm trade, the Dell trade. I put these on when the market was higher, the market sold off. Oddly enough, the market might may rally this week. May rally in a big way. And the arm trade might come back to me. The Dell trade has no chance. I think this was part of an earnings trade maybe that went bad a couple of weeks ago. Um, I guess direction wrong. Basically, it played it to the upside, it went to the downside, but it's a cheap trade, paid $145 for. Yeah, it's already a max loss. Nothing to do here. You just let that expire. No reason to close a trade that's already a max loss because why pay closing commissions? Why pay a fee to close a trade that you can't lose any more on anyway? Just let all of that expire. Uh, EEM, emerging markets. So this is an ETF. I put this trade on about five or ten minutes before close on Friday. One of the DT Options Discord members asked me uh about EEM. He was interested in trading it. It's like, yeah, I've traded it a little bit in the past. I haven't looked at it lately, but I've uh in the past what I would do is sell puts, sometimes run the wheel on it. And I was like, yeah, you know what? Since you reminded me of it, I'll go sell some puts right here before Friday's close. And then I wake up today and in one day, we're at 33% profit. I make 33% profit in one day. I probably should close the trade. A lot of times I'd wait for 50% profit because that's my profit target on short options trades. But if you give me 33% in one day, I'm always going to take it. Why not? You get such a quick move in one day, just take that money, right? You got hit over the head with a quick uh free trade as far as a free profit in one day. Really, just a couple of hours worth of trading, because I put it on at the end of the day Friday, and we've only been trading an hour and a half today. Yeah, I'll go ahead and put in that working order to close that trade. And if it gets filled, great. If not, again, I'm not in a hurry necessarily to close that. It's obviously the trade's not in any real trouble. Uh GDX, a strangle. I did have to uh defend this. So when we met earlier this morning in the DT Options Discord, where my members only uh Discord were patrons of uh subscribers to the DT Options Patreon, they have uh membership access to my Discord. And I hold a live voice chat there every morning, uh right before the market starts trading. And you know, we get together and chat for about you know 45 minutes, hour uh every day that the market is trading. And this is one of the trades that I had to play around with this morning. It's been kind of going against me a little bit. Uh I had to roll the put up and roll the call up because the call was starting to get tested in this trade. So, but now I'm back to being uh much more uh delta neutral. I've got seven long deltas, so I'm leaning a little long, which is what I want in this because I think gold and silver, uh the metals are going to start moving back up because they've had a period of uh going down for a while, but they look like you know they may start heading back toward uh the moon, hopefully. I don't want this thing to shoot up in a big, big way because the short call could get hurt. But right now I'm hedging my bets a little bit. I'm playing both sides of the market, selling the put and selling the call, basically a strangle. Uh Intel already had a winning trade that I took off uh this morning in the Discord as well. Um, members of the Discord got to see me close a put for around a 50% profit, and I sold another one. So we're just gonna keep selling puts in Intel. Intel just keeps going up every day, up three and a half dollars right now. Now that has come down a little bit. It was up more than that when I uh took my winning trade off. So, but still nice upday on Intel. This has been a good trading vehicle here, really the last few months, Intel has. Now, if you've been selling puts in it, especially, because it's been a pretty bullish run, you've done well. But even selling the call side, you might have done well because Intel has had some good two-sided action. So uh whichever side of the trade, maybe play both sides, sell or strangle, you've probably had opportunities to profit on both sides of that trade. Uh JP Morgan, not really moving today. I've got an iron condor that I have rolled once in defense because JP Morgan has moved been moving higher. I had to defend the call credit spread by rolling the put credit spread up. Been in the trade for 28 days, really hasn't shown a profit, but it's one of those things, if enough time passes, this thing has to profit. It has no choice because as long as I'm in the center of this iron condor, you know, as we get closer and closer to expiration, this has to show a positive PL at some point once all that theta decay happens. Uh so I just need a little more time to pass, and I should hopefully profit on this trade. Let's see, Microsoft, that's a call debit spread that's pretty much not good. All right, it's going against me, has been going against me. I got a lot of time on this trade. So this is a a cheap play, cheap lotto ticket kind of play. So yeah, I only paid a buck thirty-two for it for the chance to win. Well, ten dollars widespread, buck thirty-two, eight sixty-eight is the max profit. Uh and I've got more than two months to wait on that. And that was uh that was Oracle. That wasn't Microsoft. My bad. Microsoft. Uh similar play though. The Microsoft wins, a full loser. I have very little chance of winning on that. The Oracle win, though. Yeah, this one's okay. I've got time to wait that out. Uh, some other things moving around. SCHD down six cents today. This is the Schwab dividend ETF. Losing a little bit today, which is interesting since the broader market is rallying. Now, SCHD does have some energy components uh to it as far as some energy related stocks, and all those names are down big because oil's down big today. So that's probably what's keeping that down. Silver. Here's my silver position. I'm playing silver with the uh ETF SLV rather than the SI futures. Um, I've got 100 shares. They're doing well today, but you see overall I'm down on the share position. I've been holding these for a few months, and I've been selling options around it. Got one short put. It's up big today. Two short calls, down a little bit today. I'm tempted to get out of the calls. You guys get to see this on camera. I'm just gonna close this. I don't like the calls anymore. They were there mainly to hedge uh what was going on on that short put. Short put. I've rolled it. Already out a month. I've got a lot of time left. Um this was originally a 32-day put that I rolled to 67 days, but I had some 32-day calls that were there as a hedge. I no longer need those, I don't think. So I'd rather just close the calls because the calls, if silver and gold really start rallying in a big way, I'm not gonna like having these calls on. Let me pay 24 cents to get out of that. If they'll let me. No, the greedy market maker on the other side of this trade, he wants me to pay 26 cents. And I'm out. So paid 26 dollars to get out of that trade, but that's fine. Uh I'm more than gonna make up 26 cents on whatever I make on the put, and especially if the shares profit, because I'm down, you know, $1,500 on the shares, and if I get back to break even on that, I'll be fine. I'll probably get out of the share position because I've made several hundred dollars actually selling puts and calls around the shares because I've been running this kind of covered strangle uh over and over again in silver. It's been a great trade. SPY is up huge today. Got a double diagonal spread on in SPY. Um, this is expires tomorrow. This is not a good trade because a huge upday just killed this trade because the call calendar part of the double diagonal. The strikes are the 752, 753. And spy's just blown past it. Trading almost at $7.55 now. I have very little hope of actually making money on this trade, but it's a small trade, and I will take it off tomorrow, whatever the uh win or the loss happens to be. We get a pullback tomorrow if the market goes down tomorrow. I might be alright on the trade. If the market keeps going up tomorrow, it's a loss. It's not going to work out. Uh TQQQ shares of the triple levered NASDAQ ETF up huge today because the NASDAQ is up almost 3%. And that means the triple levered QQQ is up almost 9%. And I own 175 shares of that. So that's a that's a nice chunk of change. Nothing to do there, obviously. We just uh sit back and let that hopefully keep growing. Then XSP, the mini SPX, got a lot of butterflies. Put butterfly, call butterfly, put butterfly, call butterfly, put butterfly, call butterfly. I've laddered into them. I put these on at 21 DTE every Friday. So every Friday I put on a put broken wing butterfly to the downside and a call broken wing butterfly, but I break the call so I can't lose to the upside. And uh I put these on every Friday for 21 DTE. That's why I've got so many, because I get two three weeks ago, and then two more from two weeks ago, and then two more. They're gonna expire this week. Um I end up with six total on. These have been a great trade all year. These uh both the call butterflies and the put butterflies, they've been just printing money, so I just keep doing them. And they're small, defined risk trades, so um not very uh dangerous trades. Low probability trades, they only report when you put them on, they report a pop, a probability of profit of about 20%. But I've won on most of the trades I've put on this year. So even though it says the pop is 20% on these, I've probably on the call butterflies especially, the pop is about 20%, but I bet I've won on at least half. Now it's a bull market, so the market has been going my way. The put butterflies, because I break the wing in such a way I can't lose to the upside, and I'm putting them below the market. The put butterflies do have a high pop. And uh yeah, I haven't lost on one of those yet either. So yeah, been great trades. Overall, though, yeah, it's it's been fun. Uh take a quick look at uh what's going on in the YouTube chat. For those in the YouTube chat, if you got any questions or comments, feel feel free to ask. Uh yeah, speckle, yeah. Audio is fine, appreciate that. I I did see your message earlier, so I knew you guys could hear me. Thanks for letting me know. And then uh GNU Lynx. Hello, fellow Linux traders. Yep. Uh, and he meant it uh also wrote in uh Linux stocks, old school hard drive producers, Western digital and Seagate are winning. Yeah, yeah. Uh obviously, all the uh memory-related names, all you know, anything AI related. So Sandisc, especially. We take a quick look at SandDisc. Um, we saw Micron was up here. Sandisk is going to be up. They're they're very much similar plays. You can see the stock charts look very similar. Both of them just keep going straight to the moon. Uh Sandisc, as of right this second, is trading at $2,100 even. Right? So it's crazy. That is absolutely insane. This was trading at $39 a share two years ago. Actually, not even two years ago. That is about that's less than one year ago. It was wow, that's $39 to $2,100. I should have bought, right? Man, if if only we knew, right? But hey, yeah, did you trade options on euro usd or other currencies? I don't typically trade the currencies. Um yeah, I'm not much into any of the FX products. I mean, I do take a look at the currency futures all the time. You know, I'll take a look at 6E, but um I can't remember the last time I traded options on it. So it's very, very rare that I do anything currency related. But I mean, if you had an assumption, what would you want to do? What would a 20 delta put in this thing cost? Buying power reduction of $1,600. That's small. Uh but we get uh span margin here in the uh 6e futures. If I clear this out, uh I went to the 53-day cycle in 6e, sell a 20 delta put. I get a credit of $362 versus a buying power of $1,600. I like that. Now, this is a much riskier trade than you think because you get that span margin, that portfolio style margin in the futures. So buying power could explode much higher than this in this thing. So ideally, if you're new to how this works, I'd spread this off, make it defined risk, maybe sell the 33 delta, put and then buy the one right below. You get a 175 credit versus a 450 max loss. That's just an example. Put credit spread, a bullish trade. I I don't know if you would be bullish in the euro, but that's just you know you certainly can trade it. I just don't. I don't really, the currencies are not my thing. I find them rather boring. Uh, as far as sectors of the market that I tend to follow, you know, the tech sector, you know, that's that's my life, right? As far as uh not just my life, uh as far as you know, I play around with a lot of technology stuff, but in trading, I mean the tech sector is the driving force of the market, and that's where all the action is at, and that's where I typically hang out, and then the uh the index products, right? I'm always trading the uh SP 500 and the NASDAQ uh in some way, and usually in multiple ways. So you can actually see we've got lots of stuff in the MES futures and a couple of different expirations. I've got uh SPY position. A lot of times I have a QQQ position. I had a IWM, a Russell 2000 position that I closed this morning. I've got shares of TQQQ right now, I've got XSP, the mini SPX. Sometimes I have SPX positions. Uh so yeah, I'm usually involved in a lot of the market products um because I I prefer to trade those, honestly, um, the indexes and ETFs rather than single stocks for the most part. But uh as far as non-index stuff, if I'm going into any kind of futures or commodities, the currencies are not what I typically go to. I like the metals, I like gold and silver. I like uh you know, I'll pay attention to what's going on in oil. I'll even sometimes pay attention to what's going on with bonds, you know, more than more than the currencies. Alright, anything else before we get out of here? Last chance for questions or comments, market still up big, PS up 1.8%, Nasdaq up 3%, and the Russell now up about 1.1%. All signs point to go on this market. I hope you guys are leaning long. If you're leaning short, my condolences because it's not working out. I know the bears keep fighting, they they keep fighting us, they want to push this thing down, but we're not gonna let them, right? Actually, even though we had you know the the week or two where it looked like the market did want to go down, really at no point on the way down, did I think the bears were in control? The bulls have had this thing by the balls ever since August. Uh 1st of April. Uh 1st of April, this thing has just I mean, look at this chart. That has just been an insane rally in the market. And hopefully you captured some of it. I captured some of it. I didn't capture the whole thing. It's hard to capture the whole thing because on the way down, obviously it's very hard to be long. But you know, once we got back toward where we had been trading after the dip, I certainly started leaning very bullish and uh recovered a lot of the losses that happened earlier in the year. Obviously, when the market was down, you know, 10, 15, 20 percent, whatever we ended up getting down here. You know, we've more than recovered that. Hopefully, you guys have been able to participate in what has been really an exceptional bull market year. Alright, guys, well, I'm gonna jump off. That's been it for this edition of Market Outlook Live. I'll be back tomorrow morning. Have fun trading. Peace.