Market Outlook Live! (Jun 16, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

And we are live. Welcome to another Market Outlook Live. Hope everyone is doing well today. And for those in the YouTube chat, give me a yay or an A on the audio. Everything sounds good.

SPEAKER_01 0:19

And we are live.

SPEAKER_00 0:21

Well, I can preview the audio myself, apparently. That was uh me coming through the speakers there. Yeah. Alright, so what is going on in the market today? Well, this bull market is taking a little bit of a breather today. We have some uh a little bit of a down market, very tiny down moves, really. The ES down 15, kind of a nothing move, down 0.2 percent after yesterday's big uh up day. So uh today I would say more than the market going down, the market's just taking a pause, right? There was a lot of excitement in the market yesterday, actually, a lot of uh excitement in the market on Friday with the SpaceX IPO. I think, you know, after a couple of uh big high volume days, you know, the market just wants to take a pause today. And that's exactly what's going on with the ES. We take a look at the NQ, the NASDAQ futures, down 259 points. That's down uh 0.85% on the day. That's the biggest mover to the downside as far as your index futures. Taking a look at RTY, the Russell 2000 futures, they're down about a third of a percent, down 10 points. Yeah, today really, I don't think this market wants to go anywhere in a hurry today. Taking a quick look at the VIX futures, the VX futures are up two cents on the day, so not really expanding volatility, not contracting volatility either. Another sign that this market, again, we'll probably end for a bit of a boring day. Futures moving lower today. The big story, obviously, is CL. That's been the big story for a few months now, is what's going on with the Middle East and crude oil. Well, we think the war is over. I mean, we got the big move down yesterday in CL, and that move down continues today, down another $3.07 in the CLQ contract. Uh CLQ6 is now trading at $76.34 a barrel. So that is uh as low as we've been in two months in the CL contract here. If you're paying attention to Brent Crude, we can pull up the BZ futures as well. But you can see very similar chart right now, Brent Crude trading at $80.06. That is the lowest that has been really since uh all the way back in March. So now that's the lowest we've been in almost four months there in Brent Crude. Other futures moving lower, the Ethereum futures are down a little more than 2%. Ethereum uh ETH, the futures are trading at 1780 as of this second. Moving over to the BTC futures, the Bitcoin futures, they're down uh 885 points, trading at 65,690. And that is a 1.3% decline in Bitcoin. Now, both Bitcoin and Ethereum had huge updays yesterday. Most of these products had big up days yesterday, and they're just either not going anywhere fast today or pulling back a little bit, as you would expect after a big market rally that we've had in the last couple of days. Silver had a big upday yesterday, actually had a couple of big up days, uh Friday and Monday. Taking a breather today, down half a percent here in the SI futures. The SI futures currently trading at 69.805. Gold is also down a little bit today. Gold had a big Friday and a big Monday, but today uh not doing much. Now six and a half dollars. That's not much in the GC futures. Uh GC currently trading at 4345, down about 0.15% on the day. The copper futures, I haven't taken a look at them in a couple of hours, but they weren't doing much either today. If I pull up the HG futures, they're up a quarter of a percent. Copper trading at 6.5125 on the day. Taking a quick look at some of the futures that are moving higher on the day. Netty gas is up 2% for those that are ballsy enough to play the NG futures. Natural gas, it's not something I typically play. I've played it a little bit in the past, uh, especially with the uh ETF, the UNG ETF, but Netty Gas is such a volatile kind of instrument. Uh, this uh for those that are kind of new to trading, this historically has a nickname. People call natural gas the widowmaker. Why is it the widow maker? Because it is it has ruined a lot of traders over the decades. So right now, net gas trading at uh $3.21. Taking a look at bonds. The bonds are higher today, which is good. We actually need bonds moving higher. So this is uh the one product I would say that is uh not taking a breather today. This is doing exactly what it needs to do. The ZB futures, the 30-year bonds, up 10 ticks, trading at 112.28. ZN, the 10-year notes, uh up four and a half ticks, trading at 109.25 and a half. And that is a move up of about 0.1% in the Z N. The ZB was up about 0.3%. Um, the two-year uh bonds, not really moving, but two-year notes here, the ZT. Yeah, basically unchanged on the two years. For those playing the currencies, the currencies not doing much today, like most other products, the 6E futures up 0.1%, so that's your Euro futures, British pound up 0.05%, basically an unchanged day in the pound. The Aussie dollar is practically unchanged, uh, doesn't even register as far as change uh 0.01% change on the Aussie dollar there. The Japanese yen down a very tiny, uh down uh uh point zero eight percent. Yeah, not much going on in any of the currency futures right now. Uh, some of the big stories, though, today SpaceX continues to be the big story, right? This is the third day uh of trading right at IPO'd on Friday of last week at a big day trading day on Monday, having another big trading day today. But here's the thing it now has options. If I go into the uh trade tab here in Tasty Trade, we now actually have options. They just started trading this morning. Um, no open interest. You say I've got open interest as a column, but don't worry about open interest, open interest resets every day. Uh well, actually, volume resets every day. Uh, open interest continues, but open interest, there's no open interest at the start of the day, and open interest, the numbers don't get updated until tomorrow. So there will be open interest. It's just right now all the numbers are at zero. If I go to volume, you can see volume, which does get updated. You can see, you know, there's plenty of volume, right? People are trading these options already on day one. And if you're unfamiliar with how volume works, volume is the daily volume. So these actually reset to zero tomorrow morning, and then tomorrow the options volume start at zero and then increase throughout the day, where open interest is telling you how many open contracts, uh, whether it's short contracts, uh long contracts, tells you how many are currently open. But this number, again, uh will even though things are trading, that number gets updated tomorrow. So open interest will not show us anything. But bid ass spreads here look pretty tight for those wanting to trade options on SpaceX. I mean, we're getting 50 cent wide, 60 cent wide bid ass spreads on a $208 stock. Again, the very first day it's trading. I mean, no, 50 cent wide is kind of it's not very tight, but still, uh, as people jump into this, these are going to tighten up to where we're gonna have you know 10, 20 cent wide bid ass spreads, maybe tomorrow. I I don't know. I think this is going to be a very liquid product, though. We're gonna have a lot of options volume in SpaceX because I think this is a product people are interested in. I know I'm interested in people that are part of my Patreon and my my Discord membership. All of them are interested in SpaceX. Like this is the the neighbor down the street, right? You know, one of my nieces and nephews that don't even trade, they're interested in SpaceX. And that this is what everybody wants to trade these days. Taking a quick look at some of what's going on with my portfolio today. Um, let's start with the market stuff, so MES stuff. Uh, I've got put some some put ratio spreads here. Nothing going on today, so nothing going on with these positions. These positions, though, are perfectly safe. I've got several two by one put front ratio spreads. These are mainly for downside protection in the market. So these are well below where the ES is currently trading. And if ES falls toward the spread slowly over the life of these trades, they stand the chance to make quite a bit of money. If the ES never falls, they'll make a little money. They're not going to make a lot. But again, the the big money to be made is in a market correction, uh, especially like a lengthy bear market where the market steps down over a number of weeks into the spreads. We're not getting that right now, which is fine. I don't want that. I want the market to go up. This is mainly hedging other bullish positions that I have on. Uh, if we take a look at some of the other market stuff, I have XSP, which is the SP 500, uh, the mini SPX index. So uh just a different way to play the SP 500 with uh you know an index product, the XSP rather than futures, like an MES. So you for futures you can use ES or MES. Uh the S is the big boy product, it's 10 times the size of MES. Uh you can think of ES also as five times the size of SPY, so it's a big product. MES being one-tenth the size of ES, that means it's half the size of SPY. Still not a tiny product, so be careful if you're brand new to trading futures and futures options. You know, this product is bigger than you think, but technically speaking, on a notional value, it's half the size of SPY. It's also half the size of XSP, because XSP basically is the same size as SPY, it's just an index, not an ETF. And this is what I typically do my butterfly spreads. I've got uh put butterflies, call butterflies, I've got three of each on, laddered in every week. I do them at 21 DTE. I put on a uh put and a call butterfly both every uh Friday at 21 DTE, and I've laddered into six of them at this point, which you know, if none of them come off early, right? And you can have as many as six on in my case. And these have been a great strategy really all year, especially in a bull market. The call butterflies just print money, and the put butterflies, I do them as broken wing butterflies, where I can't lose to the upside on them. So I don't expect to ever lose on these. It's been a serious uh move down in the market, which we really haven't got lately. So, yeah, these things have just been great. The put ratios and MES also have been great as far as I've never been threatened in any serious way on those. I've also got shares right now of TQQQ. I've got 175 shares of that, losing a little bit on that today with the NASDAQ being down. Of course, this is triple levered, which means you know, when the Nasdaq is down 1%, this is down 3%. Right now, the NASDAQ, the NQ futures, are down uh 0.8%. So that means I'm down what 2.4% on the position. So, you know, it's great on the up moves because I get three times the reward. Not so great on the down moves because I get uh three times the risk on the way down, but uh this has been great all year because it's been a very bullish year. This has been printing money for me all year. I'm I'm up. Uh uh I I've been in and out of shares, you know, uh at times in the market, because when the market turns around, I get out of the shares, and then when the market starts going back up, I get back in the shares. I've made about four or five grand on shares in TQQQ this year. Um it's been a great trade just to help offset some of the losses, especially earlier in the year when the market had the little meltdown in April, or uh actually it started in February, the market meltdown. We had February, March, but April was when we really turned around and started going back up. And that's when I really started heavily trading these shares on the way back up to uh capture some of the profits in the market rally. Because this market rally has been historic, and I wanted to take a little bit of leverage, right? And you so the three times leverage is great. Again, it is risky, though. This is not something you'd want to put like a sizable amount of your account in because um it if you ever woke up one day and let's say the NASDAQ was down, let's say it had a serious down day, like a 10% down day, well, you're down 30% on that position, right? So, and that's gonna hurt. So you got to be careful playing the triple levered ETFs. Uh, some of the individual stock names, I don't have a whole lot going on today. I mean uh some of the positions I might need to pay attention to. Intel down $7. That's a big move in a $120 stock that's down five and a half percent. I sold a put in it yesterday. Now I took a put off that I had. Uh I took a winner in Intel. I had a short put that was about a 50% winner, which is typically when I manage those. Took it off, got another short put that I sold yesterday, very first day up, right? So only been in the trade one day. And then we get the big down day. So I'm showing a negative PL early in the trade, but that's fine. It's just the first day of the trade. Intel probably gonna go back up tomorrow. You never know, but yeah, Intel's volatile. They could go up $10 tomorrow, and then I'll be back in the green on this. Now, nothing to do here though, I don't need to defend that. This is a 16 delta put, well out of the money, the 90 strike, and we're trading at 120 uh yeah, 120.70. So I'm $30 out of the money. Do not need to do anything to defend that. If I needed to defend it, how would I defend a short put? Typically, selling calls against it is the way I would defend it, but again, in this position, perfectly safe right now. Uh GDX, which is the gold miners ETF. I have a strangle, a short put and a short call, and I defended this yesterday. I had to roll both the put and the call up because GDX was going up and it was threatening the call side of this strangle. So I rolled both the put and the call up a strike, up $5, uh, because I'm concerned that GDX is going to keep going up and keep threatening the call side of this strangle. And it is, it's up again today. It's up uh $1.45. That is a 1 3 quarters percent upday in GDX. So I'm really glad I adjusted that strangle because I'm up on the position today as far as uh the daily PL because I adjusted the strikes. Had I left them where they were yesterday, I would be uh at a loss today. I'm probably down $150 on this trade today, where I'm only down now $66 total on the trade. So chipping away a little bit at this loss, I'll keep defending it, hopefully get back to break even. But ideally, I'd like to eventually make a profit on this trade. And I think I will uh in the end. Just gotta give it some time, and hopefully GDX and the gold miners will settle down and quit being quite as volatile as they are at the moment. One trade I need to pay attention to here is JP Morgan, JPM. JP Morgan is up ten dollars and thirty-nine cents today. That's a three and a quarter percent up move. That's a huge move in a bank. Financial stocks aren't very volatile. You know, the IV in them is typically very low, very low compared to like your tech names. The fact that this thing just went up ten dollars today, wow, that's not what I wanted on an iron condor. And iron condor, my short put is the 305, my short call is the 340. We're now trading at 330. So I'm 25 points away on the put side, but only $10 away on the call side. So it's starting to push toward the call credit spread side of this trade. I'm not going to adjust it today, but if we come back tomorrow and we have another update in JP Morgan, I'm going to have to I'm going to have to roll this thing up. I'm definitely going to have to roll the put spread up as a defense. And if I roll, if I'm really aggressive, I'll roll the put spread up a lot in order to finance rolling the call spread up so it gets further out of the money so it's not as threatened by these up days. Right now though, I'm gonna sit on it. Other things moving around. Oracle down two bucks, not much of a move in that. And this is a call debit spread, and it's out at 66 days, out of the money call debit spread, kind of a lotto ticket kind of play. I've got two months, more than two months, to wait on that. So I'm not in a hurry with that. Plus, it's a debit trade, a debit trade. I paid the debit and I'm just gonna sit on it, and whatever happens, happens. So debit trades typically are defined risk. So I went into it uh with the understanding that what I paid for the trades, the max amount of money I can lose on it. So I just put it on and let it go and see what happens. So now right now the ES down 13 points, the Nasdaq down 250, the RTY down $7. So the ES and the RTY, the SP and the Russell, aren't really doing much. They're just basically unchanged for the day. It's the Nasdaq, it's the the tech heavy Nasdaq index that's making a little bit more of a substantial down day here. Down now 260 points. That is down uh 0.8% on the day. So for those of you in the YouTube chat, if you got questions or comments, trade ideas, anything you want to talk about, get it in now. Um I shouldn't have much more to do with my portfolio as far as trading today. If the market stays like this, I'm pretty much uh done, and I'll come back tomorrow and see where my positions lie tomorrow. Gonna take a quick drink of water here, guys. Um a little bit under the weather today, although I'm I'm gonna fight through it. One of the things with being a content creator, you know, we we're kind of like the postman, um, rain shine, uh, right, hell, flood, tornadoes. Uh same thing with YouTube content creators. No matter what happens, you know, I schedule a live stream, I'm gonna be here.

SPEAKER_01 19:39

Um nothing from the YouTube chat.

SPEAKER_00 19:46

Well, let's get back into the trading platform then. I'm gonna take a quick look at what some of the big mega cap tech stocks are doing. I've got a watch list here, some of the more important tech names just to see what is moving around today. If we sort by change percent to the upside, the biggest mover to the upside is SpaceX, even though it's way off its highs. This thing traded all the way up to $225 a share this morning, and now it's trading at 210. So, but still trading at 210. That is a $18 up move in one day. So that's a 9.3% up move in SpaceX. But again, IPO, this is you know, this is something different. Let's get into the things that have been trading for more than three days. Google is your biggest winner. Uh, well, in at least in this watch list, I only got about 20 names in this watch list, but Google is up about $5 on the day, up 1.3%. So in a day where a lot of the tech sector is kind of weak, Google is strong, so is Amazon. Amazon's up 1% on the day, up uh $2.68 right now, trading at $248.70. Meta is up a little bit on the day. Meta has had a had a good day yesterday, having a good day today, up four dollars and fifty cents. That's a three-quarters of a percent up move today, had a big up day yesterday. IBM is up a couple of bucks today. IBM has kind of sold off the last couple of weeks after having a big run-up in the last month or two. Apple's up a dollar, Qualcomm's up 63 cents. Those are about the only big tech names that are up today. Most of your tech names are weak. Intel, which we already looked at because I've got that Intel position I just took a look at, down uh 5.6% on the day, AMD is down, 3.6% on the day, AMD down $20 on the day. Trading at 526.81. Netflix is down a little more than 3% on the day. Podcom is down three percent on the day. MU, which was up pre-market, is now down $34 on the day. That's a more than 3% down move in MU, but it's still very near its all-time highs. Palantir's down about 3% on the day. Uh Nvidia is down 1.5% on the day. Microsoft's down one and a half percent on the day. Tech stocks definitely getting beat up a little bit. If I pull up my ETF watch list, let me sort alphabetically here. Take a look at what some of the major market sectors are doing today. XLK, which is the tech sector, it's gonna tell the story for the NASDAQ, uh, down one and three-quarters of a percent. So that's what's holding the NASDAQ down. And then energy is another big story because of oil and the Middle East. XLE, the energy sector ETF, here is down 34 cents. That is a 0.6% down day. Not much going on in there, but remember JP Morgan. I mentioned that was a kind of a crazy move for a financial stock. XLF, the financial sector ETF, up big today. Up uh 67 cents here in XLF, that is a one and a quarter percent up day. And if you look at the chart for the last week, we uh week and a half, maybe, yeah, the financials are really starting to take off there. And I should pay more attention to this chart because if people are going to start rotating out of some other sectors and into financials and start pushing those banks higher, maybe I don't want to be in that iron condor in JP Morgan anymore. I've been in this iron condor, by the way, for about a month. I've been in this thing for a while. Matter of fact, I just don't like it anymore. I've I mentioned on the stream yesterday or maybe uh the previous stream. Sometimes when you take a look at a trade and you just don't like it anymore, like hey, if I was putting on this trade today, would I put on this trade? No, I wouldn't. If I was taking a look at JP Morgan today, I'd be bullish. I wouldn't be neutral. Then why have the neutral trade on? Why not take this trade off and put on another trade? Whatever trade you want to be in. So yeah, and I'm about at breakeven on this trade. I'm down 18 cents or whatever. That's fine. Why not just get out of the trade? There's no reason to hold a trade that you don't want to be in. You know, once your assumptions on things change, just get the hell out of the trade. And this is something that I've had to learn over the years. Sometimes I've I'll be stubborn. Many of you guys probably have suffered this same affliction where you put on a trade. You have an assumption of some kind, you put on a trade, and things quickly change, and that trade goes badly against you, and you know that that trade's a bad trade now, but you hold on to it. It's like, hey, I'm gonna make it work. I'm not going to close the losing trade and then maybe take the other side of the trade or just move on to a different ticker entirely. No, I'm gonna make this trade work, I'm gonna force this trade to work, I'm gonna beat this thing into submission. And what happens is early on, you could have got out at a small loss or maybe no loss at all. But you're like, Well, I'm gonna stick it out because I have to be right. I can never admit I was wrong on a trade, so I have to hold it. And then that break-even trade or even a small loss becomes a bigger loss, then it becomes a really big loss. Keep holding it, keep holding it, it eventually becomes the monster loss, right? So, and then once you've taken a few of those, you know, and I've taken a few of those where I knew I could have got out earlier, and I even considered getting out earlier, and I didn't. And once you take a few of those hits, you learn. It's kind of like I I often analogize uh some of these trading concepts to children. Children quickly learn what to do, what not to do. Uh, as a child, the first time you burned your hand on a hot stove, right, you never did it again. Right, right. First time you uh got shocked by an electrical outlet, hey, you quit playing with that electrical outlet. You know, that's what traders sometimes need to be like, right? The first time you burn yourself on some of these bad trades, learn from it, right? And whatever the mistake was that you made, don't do it again. If you were trading too big, don't do it again. If you're in a trade that no longer makes sense because your original assumption no longer applies, get out of the damn trade, right? All right, quick last look at the market here while we wait. The ES down 20. Yeah. This market, yeah. I'm pretty sure this market wants to go down today. I think this is just a breather. We've had two good up days. I think this is just people taking a pause, some people taking profits. Um, the Nasdaq now down 335 points. That's a big move. It's starting to become a real down day in the Nasdaq, now down 1.1% on the day. Don't love that while I'm holding shares of TQQQ, uh, but that's part of the deal. Wild wild swings and triple levered products, right? And it's just part of what I got to deal with there. But other than that, I'm okay with my portfolio on the day. Uh, one last chance for those in the YouTube chat. Questions, comments, anything. Got a couple more minutes, and then we're gonna shut it down for the day. All right, yeah. Sound is fine. Speckle, speckle also was uh thanks, DT. Appreciate the content. I appreciate you for hanging out. All you guys in the chat, thanks for watching. For those that are listening to the audio only version of this podcast, maybe you listen to it after the fact on a uh Apple or a Spotify. Please give the show a five-star rating. Help us grow in the algorithms. And uh, other than that, for those uh that are interested, check out my Patreon. I do have a Patreon, the DT Options Patreon, where subscribers, I have a members-only Discord. Just subscribe to my Patreon, you get access to a members-only Discord where I hold a live voice chat each and every trading day. Uh, we start 15 minutes before the stock market opens, and we chat for about 45 minutes or an hour. Each day the market is open, and I share my screen, very similar to what I just did here. You guys get to see uh trades I make that morning, opening trades, closing trades, roles. Oh, we often talk about various strategies and you know educational stuff. People get to ask questions to me, bounce ideas off of me. I get to bounce ideas off of members of the Discord as well. We've got a nice trading group there, uh a fun group. One of the the highlights of my day each day is being a part of that trading group. And uh, if you're interested, please check out DT Options over on Patreon. All right, guys, have fun.