Market Outlook Live! (Jun 17, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

JOIN THE COMMUNITY VIA PATREON/DISCORD:
Become a "Premium Member" by subscribing on Patreon ( https://www.patreon.com/dtoptions ).  This gets you access to the Discord, including the daily voice chats on market days, as well as access to exclusive video content posted on Patreon, including all of the daily voice chats in their entirety.

BUY DT'S BOOK
🛍️ The Super Wheel Options Strategy: https://amzn.to/3v7gAXh

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Edition of Market Outlook Live. I hope everyone is having a lovely morning today. So today the market is sharply changed. Market Outlook Live. Apologize about that. I was previewing the audio there. Looks like everything is good. Yeah, so the market not doing much today. If we jump into the trading platform here, right now, the ES is down 10 points on the day. That's down 0.1% on the day. Not much of a move here in the ES. I would consider a 10-point down move, pretty much just being unchanged on the day. The NASDAQ, the NQ futures here, are up 69 points on the day. That also pretty much an unchanged move. Up 0.2%, but kind of a nothing day. The Russell, though, is moving around. The RTY futures up 17.5 points. That is 0.6% up on the day on the Russell. So the small caps doing a little bit better today. If we take a quick look at volatility, just to complete the story here as far as the index futures, the volatility index here of the VX futures trading at 1858. That is up 16 cents on the day. So volatility ticking up ever so slightly today. And I think that is in large part because today is a Fed day, as far as there is a FOMC meeting today. There is the FOMC Fed rate decision that comes out at 1 p.m. Central Standard Time today. They're not going to raise rates, right? They're not going to lower rates. They're not going to do anything. Everybody knows that. So nobody cares about the Fed rate decision. But 30 minutes after that, at 1.30 p.m., Fed uh Chairman Warsh, the brand new Fed chair, he's going to give his little press conference. So he's going to speak. And when he starts speaking, that will probably move the market around. Because he's probably going to speak a little while. This will be his very first conference here as Fed chair. And he's probably going to speak for a lengthy amount of time, being the initial press conference. So who knows, you know, if he gives any kind of guidance going forward that sounds kind of dovish or hawkish or, you know, a mixture of both, you could see some swings in the market as he's speaking. So that is partly, I think, why volatility is ticking up ahead of that event later this afternoon. We take a look at some of the non-index futures, what's moving around today. Let's start with what's moving to the downside today. Right now, the biggest mover in the futures markets to the downside on my list here, netigas down 2.5%. So netigas is trading at 3.158. Uh, kind of been trading a little bit in a range. Obviously, you get some good two-sided action in Netty Gas. It's very volatile, but I'd say it's been trading kind of sideways here for the last three, four weeks. Ethereum is down today. If we take a look at the Ethereum futures down 40 points here, that is a 2.2% decline in Ethereum. Right now, the Ethereum futures trading at 1755. The Bitcoin futures are also lower. Uh they're down 510 points. Right now, the BTC futures trading at 65,225. They are off about three-quarters of a percent today. Copper is moving lower as well. The HG futures are down about a quarter of a percent, but copper still hanging out here near its recent highs. It's kind of been trading in a range here up here toward its highs. Copper has been pretty strong here lately compared to a lot of the other metals. Some of the currencies are a little lower. The Canadian dollar down 0.2% today. The Euro is also down 0.2% as well. Uh the Aussie dollar down less than 0.1% on the day. Really not much going on with the currencies. Not much going on with the bonds right now, though they might the bonds may move around when Walsh speaks later this afternoon. So pay attention to the bond market, especially this afternoon. The bonds and the index futures. They're gonna they're gonna swing a little bit. Right now, though, the ZB, the 30-year bond futures, are down two ticks, basically nothing going on here, but trading uh at 113.04. So that's uh that's toward the higher end of its recent range here. So the bonds uh are definitely uh have rebounded off of the bottom they made about a month ago, where we had the kind of mini crash here in the bonds that really spooked the market. They've had a nice rebound in recent weeks. We take a look at the 10-year note of the ZN futures here, down three and a half ticks, trading at 109, 26 and a half. So down 0.1 percent, not much uh movement there in the 10-year as well. For those interested in the two-year, down 0.05 percent. Basically, not much going on in the two-year. Some of the futures that are moving higher today, brutal is up uh 148. So that's uh now CL the Q6 contract is trading at 76.81 a barrel. That is an increase of 2% on the day. Now it's had a wide range today. So, you know, is the deal with the US and Iran is it gonna hold? What's going on there? You know, you so you're gonna have some volatility here, but still, oil trading at the lower end of its recent range, where we had the big drop three days ago when it, you know, we found out over the weekend that the US and Iran had come to a deal, had the big drop, and then dropped further. Today, we really don't know where it's going. So the bulls and the bears are fighting it out there in crude oil. For those that are playing the agricultural futures, not my favorite products to trade, I typically really don't pay too much attention, but they are moving around a little bit today. Uh the wheat futures are up 2% on the day, and the uh soybean futures are up smaller, up a quarter of a percent on the day. Corn is up 1.1% on the day. For those playing the metals, uh precious metals like me, I'm bullish in silver. I've got some positions on in silver, and silver is up today, so it's accommodating me a little bit today, up a little more than half a percent. Right now, the SI futures are trading at 70.46, so that is good for my portfolio. The gold futures are also up. If we take a look at GC, up about 0.3%. Gold right now trading at 4367. Some of the stocks that are moving around today, obviously the big one in the news these days, SpaceX. This is the fourth day of trading in SpaceX, and it has been going straight up and you know, had a nice uh overnight session. It was up big. And then as soon as the market opened, it's sold off a little bit, right? It's coming back down to Earth. So it traded all the way up to $213 and change at one point today in um the stock market trading session, and then had sold off now, it's trading at $190. Actually, just dipped down another dollar, trading at 188. Wow, this thing's really moving around, very volatile, especially early on. If you're new to these tech IPOs, right, they can be very volatile. I'm zooming in on the one-minute chart here, and you can see some crazy movement on this thing right now. So, one of the problems here, of course, everybody's trading it, but you know, right now, not a lot of shares out there, probably a lower float than most of your other big mega cap tech stocks. It's gonna get pushed around a little bit. You can see some wild swings up and down. So, this is one of the reasons why the other day, when I made my video about SpaceX, as far as on the IPO video, I mentioned, hey, if you're gonna trade it, trade it small. Buy a couple shares, buy 10 shares, 20 shares, whatever you're comfortable with, but just hey, don't go put a whole bunch of money into this thing right now because you're gonna see some wild swings. Let the markets settle down, give it a few weeks. Give this chart some time to actually have some history. Right now, we we don't even know, like you can't even put like a moving average on this chart. You can't put you know Bollinger Bands or like there's because there's just not enough history to get any technical indicators that are going to be worth worth a crap right now. I don't get IV rank right now here inside Tasty Trade because IV rank is the uh number of your IV uh your implied volatility percentages over the last year. Well, obviously, this thing's only traded four days. It hasn't even had a year of trading. So no IV rank is reporting. Uh, even the IVX numbers, are they real? Well, you only got four candles, right? So you you just you can't you can't really judge this thing yet uh properly as a trader. So just be careful if you're trading it and be prepared. If you do trade it, trade it small, trade it responsibly. If you're doing it with options, do define risk trades. Don't go sell naked puts or naked calls in this. Uh this it's just too dangerous right now. Uh, give it some time to actually have a history so we can actually figure out how this stock behaves. Every stock has its own peculiarities. You know, they all act a little different. And right now, you just don't know anything about this stock. So I wouldn't go sell a naked strangle, for example. It's just too dangerous. Uh, taking a look at some of the other big tech stocks moving around today. Let me pull up one of my watch lists here. Uh, some of the big movers today, if I sort by change percent to the upside, ARM is up $25 today. Yeah, trading right at just a hair under its all-time high. ARM right now trading at $420 and 72 cents, uh, up 6.25% on the day. Very strong move here in ARM. AVGO Broadcom is up $20 today, and that's a big move in a big company. AVGO is a trillion dollar company. So this is yeah, up 5.4% on the day, trading just under $400 a share, trading uh $397.13. Now, uh AVGO at one point got as high as $495 a share. That was just about two weeks ago. So it's still you know 100 points off its recent highs here. Uh so yeah, I think it's got some more room to run here. If we take a look at market cap, I'm just curious what is the market cap of AVGO these days? $1.8 trillion. Yeah. So when it was up here at $500 a share, that would have pushed it past the $2 trillion mark in market cap. Yeah, so definitely a big, big company. So that will move uh the Nasdaq around a little bit, the Nasdaq 100, if you're paying attention to the NQ or if you're taking a look at the index of the NDX, and that is a big component. Intel is up big today, up three dollars and forty-one cents. That's a 3% up move in Intel trading at one $120.50. Although, if you look at the chart, it's been trading in a nice range, nice sideways range. Maybe a good trade would be a strangle, although I still I still feel like this thing has room to run to the upside. So I think this is more like a cold spring. It's gonna trade sideways for a little bit, but then it's gonna pop out and start running again to the upside. So I'm not selling calls in it right now. I am selling puts. I think the puts make sense. I sold a put yesterday, two days ago, well, two days ago. Sold a new put in this because the last one came off as a 50% winner. And I'll just keep selling puts over and over again in Intel until until it doesn't work anymore, or until I get assigned shares, I'll run the wheel. Then, you know, if I get if I sell a put, it finishes in the money, I get assigned 100 shares of Intel. Then I'll start selling calls against it and just run the wheel. And then once the calls are assigned and my shares are called away, just start selling puts again. AMD also having a nice upday up $13.37. That's a 2.6% upday in AMD trading at $521 a share. That is very near its recent all-time highs it made two days ago. Micron is up again. This is you can just say that every day. Micron is up. Uh, micron up $18, now trading at $1,039 a share. Um, this is about a 1 3 quarters percent upday in Micron. The stock that has gone you know in the last year from you know under $100 a share to more than $1,000 a share. Just crazy. This thing now is a trillion dollar company, $1.1 trillion, right? And nobody saw that coming. Wasn't crazy the AI boom and this run on memory. If you told somebody a year ago Micron was going to be a trillion dollar company, they would have laughed at you, right? They just it would have just laughed in your face, and I would have been one of those people. Um, SandDisc, if I can actually type the ticker right, SNDK is the ticker for Sand Disc, down uh $20 today, but still hanging out here around the $2,000 range because like Micron, you know, it's had that run in the last year as people gobbling up memory because of the AI boom. This thing in the last year has gone from somewhere around, I want to say $50, oh less than $50, $30 a share to $2,000 a share. Yeah, just crazy, crazy move. Some of the big tech stocks that are moving lower today, other than SpaceX, which we've already looked at, meta's down about $20 on the day, trading at $580.41. That's a three and a quarter percent down day in Meta, Google down two and a half percent on the day. That's a ten dollar down move in Google, Amazon's down five and a half dollars today. That's 2.2% down in Amazon. So, yeah, definitely a mixed bag on the tech stocks. We see some weakness here in some of the big names. IBM down six dollars today. IBM had this nice run to a high there uh a couple of weeks ago and really has slid off in a big way. Microsoft down two percent today, and that's an eight dollar down move. Microsoft has been really disappointing after you know, I mean, it's been weak for a while. If over several months, it just kind of stair stepped lower and lower and lower and lower. And I just thought, man, this is crazy. Why is Microsoft not participating in the big AI boom, the AI rally? Because there for several months, it just this chart looked like death. And then it had a little bit of a pop, but a very brief pop, like a one-week pop, and then traded sideways for about three weeks, then popped again for about three days, and then since this little pop, uh, about three weeks ago, nothing but red candles. It's just just red candle after red candle after red candle. It's uh very disappointing because I've got a bullish position on Microsoft. If I would have, you know what? I'm gonna quit, I keep being bullish in Microsoft because damn, I just think this is this down move is overblown. But if it wants to keep moving down, I guess I'm gonna have to switch gears and uh start putting on bearish trades in Microsoft. Tesla down small today, down $7. That's a 1.7% down move. I guess it's not that small, but uh Tesla trading just under $398 a share. Apple down a buck fifty today, Netflix down 34 cents, NVIDIA down 45 cents, not much of a move in NVIDIA. We take a quick look at the semiconductors, pull up SMH, the semiconductor ETF here, is that is the biggest driving force of the market is semiconductors, really driving tech and the market. Right now, SMH is up $18.27 on the day. That's a 3% up move in the semiconductors, so that's a good move. Right now, SMH trading at $634.56. Quick look back at what the market is doing because they are there is a little bit of movement now. This morning, the market really wasn't moving much, but yeah, right now the ES still unchanged on the day. NASDAQ up 117 points, that's a 0.4% up move. So the NASDAQ, just looking at the semiconductors, you know, looking strong. I think the NASDAQ wants to finish green on the day. The ES doesn't know what it wants to do. The Russell though, Russell up 0.7%, Russell still moving higher. For me and my positions, I don't have too much to do today. On a mostly unchanged day, you can see I've got a mixed bag of red and green as far as tickers up and down. And most of the moves, I take a look at the PL on the day. We're dealing with very small up and down moves as far as PL on the day. I really don't really done anything. I didn't take any trades today, I don't think. I don't think I had any opening trades, closing trades. Uh I did close a trade, well, uh closed and opened a trade in SpaceX. I put on a bullish trade for tomorrow, a call butterfly in SpaceX, but that was when it was up this morning. And now it's down twelve dollars. So uh already showing a loss on that trade. It is what it is on that. I bet a short dated trade on direction got the direction wrong. Well, I say I got the direction wrong. That doesn't expire until end of the day tomorrow. But it's not going my way right now. But we'll see. We'll see what happens tomorrow. We'll be on the stream tomorrow, so well, maybe we'll see together. Maybe I'll close it for a win tomorrow. Could happen. Stranger things have happened. Uh the other trade that I put on um the financials. Yesterday, when I looked at the chart of the financial sector with you guys, we took to look at um how the various sectors have been performing, and I mentioned the financials, which have not participated much in the big rally this year. You know, all of a sudden, about two weeks ago, the financial stock started taking off. I had a uh iron condor in JP Morgan that no, you guys, you've been watching these episodes, have been fighting that iron condor in JP Morgan as it stair stepped up. The call credit spread side of that iron condor kept having to roll the put spread up to defend it. And yesterday I just closed the whole thing. I basically closed it for about a scratch, maybe a small little loser, but I just got out of the trade. I no longer liked it because JP Morgan just wants to go up, and the iron condor is not the right trade if it just wants to go up. So I got out of that. But looking at XLF, you know, is this the start of something? Are people rotating out of some of, you know, maybe their tech positions and energy positions? Um, because those have been the big sectors that have driven the market this year. It's tech and energy are your biggest performers. And energy, especially because if the war in the Middle East ends, I think a lot of people will rotate out of some of their energy plays. Where will they go to? A lot of them are probably already into tech. They're going to look at maybe some of these other sectors, maybe a financial, which again, uh, the financial sector didn't really participate in the the rally yet. Maybe it's got some room to grow. I I bought uh some uh some calls. I went to the 93-day cycle, I gave myself three months to be right. I bought the At the Money calls in XLF, bought two of them because it's it's cheap. The financials are not like the tech sector. The tech stocks, many of the individual tech stocks have IV ranks of you know 80 right now, yeah, 100 right now. Some of the IVX numbers are 100%, 120%, 150%. You know, the IVX here in the financial sector ETF, the IVX is 19%. This acts nothing like the tech sector. So because of the low volatility though, buying options kind of make sense. You know, they're they're cheap. So I bought a couple of the 50 Delta calls, the at-the-money calls, and we'll see what happens in three months. You know, maybe I'll make a couple hundred bucks. Maybe I won't, but we'll see. So those were the only trades I made today, really tiny little trades that really don't matter. Uh, I did those trades uh with my Discord members this morning and our uh Discord voice chat for members of the DT Options Patreon. They have access to the DT Options Discord where I hold a morning voice chat each and every trading day. That was part of what we did. We also took a look at some other uh example trades that I didn't actually put on myself, but some of the members did. Right now, got put ratio spreads on and MES, they're all doing fine on a day where the market's not doing anything. Uh the ARM trade up $25 here, and I do have a bullish trade on, but this trade expires tomorrow and it's a max loser. Unless ARM jumps up $80 tomorrow, this is gonna be a loser. So I don't expect ARM to be up $80 tomorrow, although honestly, stranger things have happened in this market, but yeah, it's already showing a max loss, so there's nothing really to do. You just let it go, it'll expire uh all out of the money tomorrow. No reason to close it myself and pay a commission. Dell, right now, uh Dell is up $9.34. This is a call butterfly that's also a full loser. It expires tomorrow. Dell, there's no way Dell's gonna go up $160 tomorrow. So there's no way I can win on this trade. But you know, I put this on 16 days ago, Dell crashed down pretty hard right after that. Again, once it becomes a quick max loss, you just leave these kinds of trades on. No reason to pay any kind of commissions or fees to close a trade, you just let it go. GDX strangle. So this is a strangle that went kind of against me at first. I was down a couple hundred points or a couple hundred dollars, rolled. It's a couple of times, added some calls, ended up having to adjust the strikes a couple of times. And we're fighting this position back to well, we're only down $52 on it, you know, and I'm leaning a slightly bearish now because of the big up day. I'm at GDX, the gold mining sector ETF here is up $2 today. That's a 2.3% move. And I don't necessarily want to be neutral.

SPEAKER_01 22:24

This is one I want to lean long. I think I'm going to close the call side of this trade. If I can get filled. I don't think I can get filled. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 22:41

Bit ass spreads are really wide on that. I'm just going to cancel it. I don't necessarily have to do that right this second. But I'm probably going to get out of that side of the trade. If I can't get out of the call at a decent price and I want to lean long, I can roll the put up. Or what I could do is just add a second put. I don't mind selling another put as only one contract of this GDX. Not a very big product to $89 stock. Um yeah, maybe just add a second put to get some more bullish deltas here. Because I don't want to be leaning short. But it's fine today. We'll address it tomorrow if I need to. Helping that short put we just sold a couple of days ago. Nothing to do there. Microsoft down big. Some max loser, nothing to do there. SCHD holding uh 1,200 shares of SCHD down 11 cents today. Some of that may be uh I don't know. It could be something to do with uh energy today. I know there's some energy components to SCHD. Energy, the energy sector is down on the day. So that may be what's holding that back, although it's been very strong all year. This particular ETF. SLV silver, this is the ETF version of your silver futures. Um yeah, up a little bit today. Not moving much, so not much to do. TQQQ, the triple levered Nasdaq ETF. Uh Nasdaq, the NQ futures up 30.3%, so I'd be up 0.9%, right? Three times levered. So the gains are three times as much. The losses are three times as much as well. Yesterday, the down day kind of hurt us because it's three times the losses on a day where the market's up, it's three times the gain. But this has been a nice position all year. I've been in and out of it. It's not something I just want to hold all the time because on big down days, I'm it can really hurt. XSP, all of my butterflies, put butterfly, call butterfly, put butterfly, call butterfly, put butterfly, call butterfly. The first two here expire tomorrow. Call butterfly, max loser, nothing to do there. The put butterfly, winner, nothing to do there. You just let them both expire tomorrow. And then the other butterflies expire next week, two of them expire next week, and the other two expire two weeks after that. And they're all showing some profits, the further out ones. The ones that this week I'm gonna have one winner, one loser. Yeah, these have been great trades all year. One of my best performing tickers, actually, XSP, uh mainly doing butterflies in it all year. So anything from you guys in the YouTube chat? Questions or comments? Again, I don't have much to do in my account today. On a day where the market looks like it's just waiting for the Fed chair to speak later this afternoon. Kevin Walsh is going to give a speech at 1.30 p.m. Central Time, you know, an hour and a half before the stock market closes. And it when he starts speaking, the markets, even though they're not moving around much right now, probably will move around. You're gonna get some good two-sided action. If you're one of those people that like to scalp things, it's a good scalping environment at that time because you're gonna get movements up and down. So no matter what direction you pick on some of your stuff, you might have the chance to get it in and out, you know, for a profit. Yeah, speckled dust. Good morning. Yeah, appreciate that. We've got uh, what is it, EQT? I I know I probably mispronounced your your name. I I apologize about that. It also wishes us uh good morning, yeah. Uh speckle, what are your thoughts on a strangle on an SMH? I wouldn't do that. I do not like the idea of selling calls on these high-flying tech stocks, or in this case, tech ETF. I think you're gonna hate having the call on. I like the idea of strangles on even even strangles on things that are moving up slowly. SMH is not that though. I mean, this stock chart. You're just gonna hate the trade. I wouldn't do it. This this chart right here screams don't sell a call. Just don't do it. Um yeah, if you want to sell the puts, sure.

SPEAKER_01 26:55

Wouldn't sell the calls. And yeah.

SPEAKER_00 27:02

With the volatility of the IVX, 55%. This is an ETF, this is a basket of stocks, it's extremely volatile. I like the idea of just doing a spread. Maybe sell the uh 25 delta put here, the 560 put. If I go $5 wide, let's see what the price is. 123, not bad for being that far out of the money. Go a little closer, maybe the 30 delta. Do the 580 and the 575. 165 credit, I like that versus 335 max loss. Love the trade. Go $10 wide, $325 credit versus $675 max loss. I like the trade. Matter of fact, I would put that on right this second. I've got plenty of trades on though. And SMH is up today. If it was down big today, I'd definitely put that trade on. But I've got plenty also of tech exposure. If you don't have a whole lot of uh semiconductor and AI related names in your portfolio, yeah, if you want to put on a bullish trade, I think that's a good one. I do not love the idea of selling calls or call spreads, even if call credit spreads, even though they're defined risk. I just think as soon as you put it on, you're gonna start showing a loss because these it never has a downtick, right? So I'd avoid that right now. Sell strangles on things that are not moving around much. I like selling strangles on things that are moving down, actually. It actually makes it those products a little easier. Once things really start running to the upside, the calls become kind of tough. Even if you can defend them because you're rolling the puts up, because that's the defense, right? As the stock goes up, you keep rolling the puts up, roll rolling the puts up to defend the call. But all you're doing is you're just trying to, at that point, you're just trying to stay even. Or if you just sold the put without the call, you'd actually be profiting on that put the whole time. So yeah, just and you never know. I mean, the semiconductors could come crashing down tomorrow, but right now, I'd be that's just a you'd be wild ass guessing to bet on that. Right now, they're telling you they want to go up. So you just you gotta you gotta play what you see right now, and right now, it says it wants to go up. So I never like trying to call tops, I never like trying to call bottoms. When things are clearly trending in a direction, just go with the direction. Don't try to fight it, don't try to be that that special snowflake that sometimes I'm I'm gonna catch this falling knife, or you know, I'm gonna uh short this thing that's screaming higher. Don't do it. Yeah, that's when that's when you get run over. I speak from experience on that, by the way. All right, any other quick questions or comments before we get out of here? The ES still unchanged on the day. Russell up almost a full percentage point now. Russell, really strong, NQ up a third of a percent on the day. All right, well, that's been it for this uh edition of Market Outlook Live, guys. I will be back with you tomorrow. Remember, for those of you trading this week, there is no trading on Friday. Friday is the Juneteenth holiday here in the U.S. It's a federal holiday and it's a stock market holiday. The major stock exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ, they will be closed on Friday. So there will be no trading. So take that into account tomorrow. Thursday is our last day of trading. If you have options positions, Thursday tomorrow is the weekly expirations as well. So pay attention if you've got things that are expiring this week, they expire tomorrow. All right, guys, have fun trading. Peace.