Market Outlook Live! (Jun 18, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Welcome to another Market Outlook Live. I hope everyone is having a lovely day today for those trading these wonderful markets. Having a big rally today. We had a quite a bit of a sell-off yesterday as the new Fed chair, uh the Fed chair Warsh uh gave his press conference yesterday afternoon, and he kind of spooked the market a little bit. We started the day with an upday and we ended the day with some pretty violent uh down moves yesterday, but we're going back in the right direction today. So good day in the market today. Right now, if we take a quick look, jumping into the charts, and let's see what the index futures are doing right this second. We take a look at the ES. The ES is up 71 points. That is about a 1% up day in the ES. And you can see yesterday's uh rather wide range started the day with a big up move and we sold off hard. All right, and then today capturing uh rebounding uh quite a bit. We're not quite to where we were yesterday, but nice upday regardless. And honestly, yesterday's little pullback, I think, was probably kind of healthy. I mean, we're very near all-time highs in the ES. Uh I uh I don't mind us taking a day or two for a bit of a breather every now and then. The NQ is up and astounding 631 points. That is a 2.1% increase in the NQ. So the NQ has actually erased all of its deficit from yesterday. The tech heavy NASDAQ tech was actually quite strong yesterday, very resilient, even though we had a little bit of a sell-off yesterday. Tech, a lot of the tech names remained green on the day yesterday. They're doing well today. The Russell, taking a look at the RTY futures. The Russell is up a nice amount as well, up $40. That's a big move in the Russell, up one and a third percent on the day. So a broad market rally, right? There's some breadth to this as far as all your major indices are higher on the day. If you take a look at volatility, the VX futures obviously will complete the picture because volatility is down 61 cents. That's a 3% decline in volatility. So why is the market happy today? Well, I think a lot of it has to do with the Middle East, right? We've got the uh agreement between the U.S. and Iran. I think Trump signed it uh yesterday. Uh, it's all official. Well, I say it's official, but you know, we'll see if the peace holds. But right now, everybody assumes that everything in the Middle East is going to get straightened out, the oil's gonna start flowing, the ships are gonna start moving, so I think the market is happy about that. For those of you in the YouTube chat, give me a yay or a nay on the audio. I'm not previewing the audio today, but I'm assuming you guys can hear me because nobody's complained yet.

SPEAKER_00 2:58

So all right. And we got speckle in the chat. Good morning.

SPEAKER_01 3:14

Alright, let's jump into what is moving around today as far as some of the futures products. Yeah, appreciate that. Uh, audio is fine. Appreciate that speckle. Some of the big movers to the downside. Most of the futures products are actually lower today. I know we talked about the index and uh the index futures being higher, but a lot a lot of your commodities are lower today. One of the biggest movers, or actually the biggest mover to the downside today, is silver down six percent. That's a nasty move, especially again. I'm long silver, you guys know. I've been complaining about silver for really a while for a few months. I've been complaining about silver because I'm holding uh some positions in silver right now. I've got 100 shares, I've got a short put on as well. I don't have any short calls on at the moment because I was waiting for silver to rebound to start selling calls again, because I think my assumption is we're kind of toward a bottom and we're gonna rebound, so I don't want to sell calls down here. But right now, the SI futures trading at $66.42 and a half cents. That is pretty low, right? This is way off the highs from January when we got up to $123 for silver. So yeah, I don't know if we're going back up to $123 anytime soon, but $66 is definitely pretty low, right? And definitely at the lower end of the range for silver for the last six months. Gold also had a nasty day today. The GC futures down two and a half percent. Gold currently trading at $4,268. That's the GC Q6 contract. Copper's also down today, down 1.4%. The HG futures trading at 6.4055. Copper still, though, I mean it's kind of been trading in a range. It found a range up here, it's trading near its recent highs. Copper's been pretty strong compared to gold and silver. Other futures that are moving lower, crude oils down today, which you would expect with what's going on with the Middle East. Now you expect oil to start dropping a little bit. Right now, the CLQ6 contract trading at 63 or excuse me, $73.37. $73 a barrel. That is the lowest we've been going back to before the conflict. I think this is yeah, the last time we were this low, we had to go back to March 10th uh in the CL. Brent crude is also down. Uh the BZ futures are down $2.41 today. That's a 3% down move trading at $77.14. For those playing the agricultural products, corn, wheat, soybeans are all lower. We'll pull up the chart. They're all down by a similar percentage, too. They're all down about one and a quarter percent. Uh ZW, the wheat futures, down $7.75 today, trading at $6.05 even. Are there any futures moving higher today? It's just everything is red. All the currency futures are lower. 6B, the British pound, down about two-thirds of a percent, 6E, the Euro, down half a percent, the Canadian dollar, 6C down 0.4%, 6J, the Japanese yen down 0.2%, and the Aussie, 6A, down 0.2%. So obviously, strong dollar, right? When the dollar is strong, you know, that's what all is paired against all of these foreign currencies, is the US dollar. So when the dollar's strong, all of these are dropping. When the dollar is weak, all of these would be green on the day. Sorting by change percentage to the upside, other than the index futures, is there anything else green? Well, there's two things we need to point out. Natty gas up one and a half percent. Right now, the NG uh futures, the NG N6 contract is up. Uh trading around 3.193. That's a 1.5% move. Would say NG has kind of been trading in a range. You got good two-sided action here, but I think it's been behaving itself recently. Sometimes NG can make some pretty violent moves. Uh ZB is also up. So the 30-year bond is up very big. And then the bonds are not the most volatile product, right? But right now the ZB is up 23 ticks on the day, trading at 113.24. That is a two-thirds of a percent up day in the ZB, and that's great for the market because that means rates are coming down, right? Because rates and bonds have an inverse relationship. When the rates go up, bonds go down, and when the rates go down, bonds go up. And right now we want the rates to go down and bonds to go up. This is what the market really wants. Now, this was spooking the market when the ZB dropped all the way down here to, I mean, it got under 109 at one point and got down into the 108 handle. That was not what the market wanted. But here in the last few weeks, bonds have been behaving themselves. The 10-year note also up today, up seven and a half ticks, trading at 109.25 and a half. That's a 0.2% increase in the 10-year. The two-year up one tick. So not really moving the two-year. Some of the stocks moving around today. Let's take a quick look at some of the big tech stocks. We'll sort by uh change percent. We'll start with the downside. The big mover to the downside is SpaceX. SpaceX does what a lot of these big tech IPOs typically do. As soon as they open, everybody rushes in and buys them, and they have a big spike. But then people sell, right? Naturally, people got to take some profits. Also, in the early part of the IPO, all you could do was buy the shares. Um, the shares probably I doubt you could have even borrowed shares to short sell shares. There were no options as well. So, you know, now that you know trading starts to normalize, you get more two-sided action, and it will probably come down and settle into some kind of range. I don't know where I don't know where this thing is going as far as what's a fair price for this right now. For me, I think if it dropped to 150, you know, which is about where it opened, I might uh start leaning a little bit long in it. But right now, up here at 178, you know, I think it's still got some room to fall. So uh if I if I play this, I'd probably play it with options anyway. And I would do defined risk spreads, you know, some kind of debit spread or credit spread or butterfly spread. I wouldn't do naked options. I you don't know where this thing is going in the end. No one knows, no one can predict the market, right? Markets are random, nobody knows anything. So, especially on an IPO, as there's so much unknown because you have no data, you have no past data really to work with yet. Just be responsible if you're trading SpaceX. IBM is down big. This one kind of shocked me this morning because tech has been strong today, right? The market is rallying in a serious way. The NASDAQ's up huge. Most of the big tech stocks are up, but IBM is down sixteen dollars on the day. I'm sure that's news driven. I don't know what the news is about, but you can see it gapped down this morning and has since sold off after that. Uh really nasty move. That's a uh more than 6% drop in IBM. But if you look at the chart, I mentioned this the other day that uh IBM, the chart, looks bad. The last 12 candles, 15 candles, however many candles this is. I mean, it it can't find a green candle. Like it's just red candle after red candle after red candle. Uh yeah, I don't love this from a bullish perspective. I wouldn't go sell puts on it today. I know it's down big, but just I don't know. I I never try to catch a falling knife, and right now I need to see this thing find a bottom. I need to see three red candles in a row before I say, okay, the bottom might be in. Now I'll sell some puts in IBM. Right now, I just avoid it. If you're a bull, if you're a bear, yeah, I would play the momentum and I would, you know, put on something like a call credit spread, maybe, because IV rank is pretty juicy, or put debit spread even. I don't mind that. Uh, I don't know if I'd sell a naked call in this because a lot of times these tech stocks, when they do rebound, again rebound violently violently. Um, but if like gun to my head, you force me, yeah, yeah. You have to put on a trade in IBM today. I'd probably put on a bearish trade instead of a bullish trade. Because again, I don't like trying to catch a falling knife. Uh Palantir is down. Um, looks like it's down $3.30, down two and a half percent on the day. Palantir has been another one of the tech stocks that just has kind of been lagging behind as far as you know this market rally the last few months, it has not participated at all. Had some two-sided action, but for the most part, I would say it's been trending lower, it's been stair-stepping lower for the most part. So, this is another one I've kind of been avoiding as far as putting on bullish trades. Valentir over the last three or four years has been a stock I've repeatedly just sold puts over and over again in. Right now, I don't want to go sell puts on something that doesn't look all that great, especially when you consider the rest of the tech sector is screaming higher. I think it's a bad sign when you find one that's uh going sideways or stair stepping lower. I think uh there could be bigger issues uh involved with some of these stocks. Tesla's lower today. Right now, Tesla's now six dollars and thirty cents. That's a one and a half percent decline in Tesla. Might be moving down in sympathy with the big move down in SpaceX today. Microsoft is down a couple of points here, down uh $2.36, down 0.6% in this chart. Well, this chart does not look good. It looks very similar to the IBM chart. You've got about 12 to 15 candles, and they're all red. It's just this is not a good looking chart. Microsoft's chart looks bad. If you zoom way out, it looks it looks horrible. You remember back here? AI screaming higher, all the AI stocks making a high, making another high here, you know, getting back to it, and then that was November of last year, and it's been down we go. So um yeah, but of course, those are the outliers today. Obviously, the market's up, so you got a lot of tech stocks moving higher. Some of the big movers today, Intel. Intel is up $11.36. That's a nearly a 10% up move in Intel today. You see the gap up trading pretty much at all-time highs, trading at $132.54. I do have an Intel position. I have yeah, a short put. This is a short put we sold three days ago. I can't remember if I put this on with you guys. I think I put this on with my uh Discord uh membership. Um, but we talked about it here on market outlook at the beginning of the week. I had a short put that came off as a 50% winner, so I sold the next one. And Intel has been moving lower most of the week, but the big up move today, we're back in the green on this position, so it's doing what it needs to do. Just let that keep working. MU is up 86 points today. MU now trading at 1129, and that is an all-time high for MU. So that's an 8% up move in one day, too. Just crazy move. These AI-related names. I mean, this this chart is crazy. And this is why, you know, when you see some of these charts like a MU or Intel or AMD, and then you go look at the chart of Microsoft, and you're like, man, something's wrong with Microsoft. Why why is it chart? Why does that chart look so much different than MU's right now? Because right now, everybody is scooping up everything tech related, anything that is remotely AI related. People are jumping in. ARM is up $27 today. That's a 6.6% increase in ARM trading at $446.55. That's a new all-time high in ARM as well. You're looking at the chart here with me on the video portion of the podcast here. You can see we've gone from $100 a share, around $120 a share, about two months ago, maybe three months ago, and we're trading at $446 a share. This thing has uh three times its price in about three months. Just insane. AMD up another $25 today. That's a 5% increase. And AMD trading, not quite at it at all-time highs. It's uh very close, though. It made an all-time high a couple of days ago. It's uh just a little under, but AMD trading at $538 a share. AMD is another one about three months ago, it was trading at $200 a share. Now it's five hundred and thirty eight dollars a share. Just a wicked up move there. Qualcomm is up about nine and a half dollars today. That's a 4.5% up move in Qualcomm. Qualcomm trading $222 a share now. AVGO had a nice upday, up about 4.5%. Nvidia is up uh 2.3% on the day. Yeah, a lot of your mag 7 type stocks. Amazon's up 1.8%, meta is up uh 0.75%, Apple's up 0.6%, Netflix is basically unchanged on the day. Taking a quick look at some of what I've got going on with my positions, mostly it's a good day. Uh the MES positions, I've got a bunch of ratio spreads, put ratio spreads. They're doing well. Put on a new one this morning uh in the Discord. I ended up putting on a uh two by one put ratio spread. The shorts are at the 10 delta mark. I go about 90 days. It's a standard trade I always put on. I've always got these uh put ratio spreads in MES going on. So I did a two by one, actually, it's a four by two because I did two contracts, but your standard two by one ratio spread. I've got some other ratio spreads here as well. On an upday, nothing to do with these, and even on a down day, they've got some downside protection because there's some put debit spreads embedded uh in these uh option positions as well. So nothing really to do well with any of that. All of my XSP positions, which is the SP 500 uh mini index, it's the mini uh SPX call butterfly that expires today, it's worthless, so it's a max loser. I had a put butterfly that would expire today. I've already taken off for a profit. So I profited on the put butterfly, lose on the call butterfly, and then next week's put butterfly and call butterfly. We'll worry about those next Friday. Then the following week's put butterfly and call butterfly. We'll worry about those in two weeks. And then because we don't have a Friday, which is typically when I put these on, I put these on every Friday at 21 DTE, but tomorrow's a market holiday, no trading. I had to put on the new uh put butterfly and call butterfly today, one day early. So they're 20 dude, 22 DTE for three Fridays from now. Put butterfly and then the call butterfly. So yeah, got a lot of these positions on. Uh also SPY, we put on a put diagonal spread for Monday morning. Well, Monday afternoon is we'd have to manage this before Monday expiration, but it's essentially put it on today. When we come back and trade on Monday, that'll be the day we manage this. Um we put this on in the Discord this morning. Some members were interested in that, so we put that back on. It's one of our standard kind of campaign type trades. Now we got shares of TQQQ, the triple levered Nasdaq. Obviously, the NASDAQ is doing very well right now, so that position. I don't have to worry about that at all. Right now the NQ is up 2%, and because I'm triple levered, that means I'm up six percent on these shares. So risky position, right? Triple leverage, great on the up days, not so great on the down days. SpaceX, down big. I did have a call butterfly. We put this on yesterday. Call butterfly, one day trade. Because I thought SpaceX, which had a down day yesterday, might have an update today. It did not. The selling continues. This is a max loser. Nothing to do here. You just let all of this expire today. Uh silver, we talked about the silver position earlier that silver uh and gold were both down big. Here's my shares of silver down a little bit on the shares. Uh the put is just in the money. I've got the 60 put, and we're trading just under 60 right this second. But this is about as low as silver's been. So I'm not too worried. Uh, I think, you know, if I get assigned at $60 a share, I get another 100 shares at $60 a share. I don't hate that because I could average down my average share price. It's being reported here at $78.74 for this hundred. But remember, I've sold a lot of options around this. I bet my average share price, if you consider all the options, premium is probably closer to $71, $72 a share. Take another uh lot at $60 a share, plus I keep $5 of premium on this option. That's a lot of premium. So yeah, the yeah, and and I like accumulating shares of things like silver. Like silver is never going to zero, so I don't mind holding the shares. And I can always sell puts and sell calls around it and run the wheel. Uh Intel, we talked about, was up big. We're fine here. GDX, the gold miners. This is interesting because this morning the gold miners were up almost $2 and now they're down one dollar. So big intraday uh swing there in the gold miners. Now gold is down big. So I would expect the gold miners to be down big, but they weren't this morning. I I don't know why they were up when we first opened and now down, but this is actually what I expected. I expected them to be down today, but yeah, not great for my short foot position here, but nothing to do there. Still out of the money, well out of the money. Just let that position keep going. I've got lots of things that expire today. Um losing positions that expire. You see, they're all zero DTE. So I had a call debit spread and arm, and a call butterfly and Dell. Neither one of these stocks have gone up, at least not enough for me. Um Dell and ARM both up big D. Day, but these are max losers, nothing to do. All those options expire today. Just let them expire. No reason for me to close them and pay uh fees to close. Just let all those come off the books. And yeah, most of my positions, I really don't have much to do today. Today's an easy day. Markets up big, and I'm leaning bullish. You know, so PLs look pretty good on most things. Yeah. So for you guys in the YouTube chat, yeah, questions, comments, yeah. Good morning, DT. Question for that portion of the net lick held in cash, does it make sense to keep it in cash or invest in a uh ST highly liquid product to get some uh return on it? You certainly can. Uh, it'll depend uh, you know, it'll depend on your account size too. Uh you you have to understand, like if you're you want to go and hold some T bills, for example, or uh you know, your risk-free rate or some of the ETFs that mimic holding T bills. What's what's the rate now? 4%? Uh is 4% gonna do a lot for your cash? It'll depend. Like if you're trading with a seven-figure account, yeah, that'll make a difference. If you're trading with a 10 grand account, it's not gonna do like it's make a couple hundred a year, maybe. I I don't know, but yeah, it'll depend on account size, whether you think it's worth it. Uh also, are you wanting to take some risk with that money? The larger your account size is, the less risk people typically want to take. Because if you've got a large account, you've already made your money, you've already got your retirement, you've already got your nest egg, right? So those people are much more likely to be uh more conservative with their money. Or if you're just dealing with $20,000 account, $50,000 account, you know, you're probably gonna want to take some bigger swings with your money. So but there's no right or wrong answer as for you know, do what you want to do. Yeah, I don't hate the idea of you know keeping some money in some of those like treasury kind of products. If you want to hold bonds or some of the bond ETFs, you know, and try to make that risk-free rate with your with some of your available capital. And most brokers will allow you to uh get a big margin uh relief by holding some of those treasury ETFs because they're risk-free anyway. So a lot of times I know Tasty give me like a 92 or 96 percent uh buying power relief on those products. That way, you know, all your money that's tied up into for, for example, like a T bill, I can still go use that to trade. You know, because they're only gonna make me put up a small, very tiny percentage of the buying power for that because again, it's a risk-free asset.

SPEAKER_00 24:54

So I hope I hope that was the uh what you were asking there.

SPEAKER_01 25:01

But for me, I typically don't uh do that with my account because I I take a lot of trades and usually got a lot of my account in stuff, and things move around. Buying power on some of these products, like especially the futures products, like those MES positions, move around a lot sometimes in a big market correction. Buying power can explode on some of those positions. And if I've got all of my available cash tied up, for example, in a bond uh ETF, like a T bill or a Bill or a S-gov, something like that, then I've got to sell those shares to make room for buying power. Yeah, it'd be a constant adjustment of trying to buy and sell shares to keep as much cash invested in that stuff as possible. And for me, yeah, I just don't think you know it would be worth it for me. I'm not trading with $10 million, though. Like if you if you got a very large account, well, if you got a very large account, you're probably gonna be much more responsible with trading anyway. You're probably much more interested in long-term passive investments, you're probably using options more as hedges, right? You're not necessarily trying to make money with options, you're trying to protect what you've got at that point. For me, I'm trying to hit a lick, right? I'm trying to make some money. All right. Anything else? Questions, comments, anything from you guys, the market screaming higher while we sit here. ES still up 61, NASDAQ up 604, Russell up 34.

SPEAKER_00 26:34

All signs point to go in this market.

SPEAKER_01 26:42

Well, I hope you guys have enjoyed this trading week. The shortened trading week reminder: tomorrow is a stock market holiday. Tomorrow is the Juneteenth holiday. Um, the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, you know, the major U.S. exchanges are closed all day tomorrow in observance of the holiday. So there will be no trading. So there will not be a market outlook tomorrow. So we'll be back with you on Monday, guys. Have fun trading and peace.