Market Outlook Live! (Jun 22, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

JOIN THE COMMUNITY VIA PATREON/DISCORD:
Become a "Premium Member" by subscribing on Patreon ( https://www.patreon.com/dtoptions ).  This gets you access to the Discord, including the daily voice chats on market days, as well as access to exclusive video content posted on Patreon, including all of the daily voice chats in their entirety.

BUY DT'S BOOK
🛍️ The Super Wheel Options Strategy: https://amzn.to/3v7gAXh

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to another edition of Market Outlook Live. Today it doesn't look like the market really knows what it wants to do. Bit of a mixed market today.

SPEAKER_01 0:13

For those hanging out in the YouTube chat, give me a yay or an A on the audio. Alright.

SPEAKER_00 0:24

Taking a quick look at what the market is doing today. Looks like the ES wants to uh be red today. ES has been mostly unchanged today, although it's starting to sell off a little bit, down 24 points. Right now, the ES trading at 7547, down about a third of a percent on the day. The NQ is a little down to I mostly unchanged this morning, uh, but has since sold off. Um down 0.2 percent right now. The NQ U6 contract trading at 30,664 points, uh down about 60 on the day. The RTY futures, the Russell futures are actually green on the day. The Russell's up 17 points, trading at 3,017. That is a uh move up of 0.6 percent in the Russell. And to complete the picture, let's take a look at the volatility futures, the VIX futures here, trading at $18.35, down 14 cents on the day. So volatility is contracting a little bit today. Some of the futures that are moving around that are not the index futures. Let's start with the big movers to the downside. Crutol. The CL futures are down right at $2 on the day, trading at $73.90 a barrel here in the CL Q6 contract. That is a move of 2.6% down on the day. You're paying attention to Brent Crude. We'll take a look at the BZ futures, also down nearly two dollars, down $1.88 on the day, trading just under $78 a barrel. GC is down, that is your gold futures down two-thirds of a percent on the day. Gold right now trading at $4,217. The bonds are down half a percent today. Right now, the 30-year bond, the ZB futures, trading at $112.27, and that is a move down of 17 ticks here in the 30-year bond. Other things moving around a little bit today. You happen to be playing the agricultural futures, corn is down more than one percent on the day, uh, wheat is down about half a per percent on the day. Silver, which was up earlier, is now negative on the day. Again, kind of a lot of markets don't that don't really know what they want to do today. Uh, silver was well in the green earlier, and now it's sold off slightly down now, uh, down about 0.17% on the day. Right now, the SIN6 contract trading at $66.20. The euro not moving much. The currency's kind of a non-event today. Right now, the 6e futures down 0.1%, not much of a move. Copper really not moving today, basically unchanged on the day. The HG futures. Yeah, you can see copper's been trading in this range for uh about a month or so. So copper trading near its highs, but it's kind of uh found a ceiling here, it's been trading in a rather narrow range there. Japanese yen is positive on the day. The 6J contracts here up about a quarter of a percent. Some of the other futures making big moves up. Bitcoin, Bitcoin is up 3.4% on the day, the BTC futures trading at 65,385, Ethereum is up about 3% on the day as well, the Ethereum futures trading at 1764. Natty Gas is up one and a half percent. The NGQ6 contract trading at 3.323. Uh the British pound up half a percent. So I mentioned the currencies weren't really moving. This I guess would be the exception. 6B up half a percent. Uh, this is trading at 1.3263 on the day. Let's see what some of the big movers as far as stocks are. I'm gonna pull up stockwatch list of some of the big tech stocks. Right now, Apple is positive on the day. Apple's up almost two dollars trading at $299.90. AMD is also positive on the day. AMD is up ten dollars trading at five forty-seven forty-one. Amazon down big. Amazon's down ten dollars on the day. Wow, that's a four percent down move. Not exactly sure if that was uh news related or not. ARM is down about six percent on the day. ARM is down twenty-six dollars, arm very volatile, one of the big uh winners here in the AI uh race as far as uh one of these stocks that has been just exploding to the upside, but very volatile. Obviously, you get some big up moves occasionally. You get big down moves as well. Some of the other chip names are also selling off a VGO Broadcom down $15 today, trading just under $396 a share. That's almost a 4% down move in Broadcom. Google, wow, yeah. Uh some of these Mag 7 stocks are down big today. We just mentioned Amazon was down more than 4%. Google was down almost 7% on the day. Google is down $24.50. That is a very big move and a very big company that that's uh you know heavily weighted in the SP 500 and the NASDAQ. So uh right now Google trading at $343.33. I do not know why that is moving the way it is. Kind of shocking, actually. That's the first time I've uh looked at uh Google this morning. I mean I looked at it pre-market, but yeah, I don't know what is going on. Let me actually pull up the one-minute chart here. Yeah, you can actually see it started dropping.

SPEAKER_01 6:43

Um yeah, pretty much as soon as the market opened. Yeah, it's just been a stair step down ever since.

SPEAKER_00 6:52

IBM is down about three dollars on the day. Intel is up big on the day. Now, Intel here is uh up about six dollars. That was news driven. Intel making a new all-time high, trading right at $140 a share as of this second. That's a up move of four and a half percent. Getting back to some of the mag 7 stocks that aren't doing well today, meta down $15. That is a 2.7% drop in Meta. It's trading at $561.72. Microsoft down more than 2% today, Microsoft down uh about eight bucks on the day, trading at $371.63. The Microsoft chart for the last three weeks has just been nothing but red candles, it's not a pretty chart. Microsoft kind of looks sick to me, especially considering the strength of so many of the other tech stocks. Microsoft has not looked good in a while. MU Micron is up $55 on the day, making a new all-time high. So, yeah, it's kind of weird. We've got some big tech stocks that look kind of nasty. Then you've got stocks like Intel and Micron that are making new all-time highs, even though ARM was down big. I mean, it's fresh off all-time highs. Micron trading just under twelve hundred dollars a share now. Netflix is down big today. Netflix down three dollars and twenty-three cents now. Trading at $74.15 a share. That three and a quarter down move there. That's a 4% down day in Netflix, and its chart just looks terrible. I mean, for almost three months straight, it's just been a steady decline, just a stair step lower. Yeah, this is not I would not be bullish in Netflix. I know a lot of people might think, yeah, you look at a chart and you're thinking, well, I should jump in on the bullish side here, right? Well, I don't like trying to catch falling knives. So uh this is one of those situations where I often talk about wait for you know three green candles, right? Wait till something definitely changes, till it clearly finds a bottom. You get like three or four green candles in a row where it's hitting back up. Because right now, I you know, you're just wild ass guessing if you go and sell a put in Netflix right now. I just wouldn't do it. Nvidia's down small today, uh, down 87 cents, not much of a move there. Oracle is making a nice move down, down $5.37, down 3% on the day. Oracle is one that had a big run up, and then it's like it just hit a ceiling, it hit a wall up here, around $250 a share, and it's been selling off for the last three weeks. Palantir is down six dollars on the day. That is a big move in Palantir. That's a five percent down day in Palantir. It's another one the last three weeks have not looked good. Palantir currently trading at $122.42. Qualcomm is up on the day, up about three bucks. Qualcomm trading at $229 even. SpaceX, of course, a recent IPO, down uh today. This third day in a row, it's down. You often get these with these IPOs. Early on, everybody's bullish. Pretty much the only trade you can put on is bullish trade, and then once real trading starts, you get people selling. So, where is it going to settle in as far as a range? I don't know. The IPO wasn't the IPO opening price somewhere around $150. I imagine probably a get down somewhere there and probably start acting more like a normal stock. Long term, you know, I'm sure it's gonna go up in the long term, but in the next couple of weeks, I uh who knows? This thing could be all over the chart right now, though. SpaceX trading at $167.31, down almost 10% on the day, down $17.50. Tesla Tesla was down pre-market. You know, this is another one that uh kind of shocked me a little bit with Google. You know, once the market opened, you know went down in a big way. Tesla was actually down uh several bucks pre-market and now is up eight dollars and sixty-eight cents. So right now Tesla trading at four hundred and nine dollars and eleven cents. And let's get back into my futures watch list, see what the market has been doing the last few minutes while I was talking. Yeah, ES still down 30, NASDAQ down 80, the Russell up 17. That's pretty much where they were as far as the index futures. Let's talk about earnings. There were no earnings event uh this morning. Uh, no companies worth mentioning that reported, but we do have at least one company reporting tomorrow morning. CCL Carnival Cruise Lines to report before the bill tomorrow morning. So if you want to trade this for earnings, you'd put on a trade today. A lot of times I just sell strangles in this. CCL is a company I uh a ticker that I do trade on occasion. Uh it's usually got pretty good markets, liquid markets usually got pretty good IV, which it does. If I go to the 60-day cycle, the IVX is 50%, IV rank is 56%. A lot of times I would just sell like a 15 to 20 delta kind of strangle. I'll do the 19 delta put. Maybe the 19 delta call will make it perfectly delta neutral. So that's the 26 put, the uh 37 call, get a buck 30 credit on a buying power reduction of $300. Um, that's you know, for one contract. So a lot of times I get people that ask, hey, what can I do with a small account? All I can do is spreads, right? All I can do is credit spreads or debit spreads or maybe butterflies. Well, no, you can still sell naked options because you get a stock like this, that's a $30 stock. You can certainly sell a naked put or naked call or both, you know, a naked stringle in this case. And the buying power, only $300. That is uh uh a nice small size, even for somebody trading with just a few thousand dollars. Uh, one contract of this is a perfectly safe trade, maybe even two contracts. Like if you're trading with a ten thousand dollar account, you want to do two contracts of this. I think it's still a perfect size. Obviously, if you got uh a bigger uh account size, you would do a considerable uh a number of contracts on a small stock like this. Yeah, speckled dust in the chat. Appreciate the uh sound check there. For those in the chat, if you got any questions or comments, uh feel free to leave those now. I don't have much to do as far as my trading on the day, as far as uh I came into the day using plenty of buying power, um, and my portfolio on a day where the market doesn't really know what it wants to do, doesn't really require much management. Got a bunch of put ratio spreads in MES on a small little down day, nothing to do here. I mean, the trades are working, just let them work. Uh AbV, this is another ticker I should have mentioned. Ab V a healthcare stock. Normally kind of kind of boring play. Ab V though, up $12.31 on the day because of a uh I believe they acquired a company, I think they bought somebody, and it popped on the news. So we actually should switch to the screen here. AbV up $12.51, trading at $229 even. Actually go to the chart. I do have a bullish trade on in AbV right now, so that's good for me. It actually helped me because my bullish trade I put on a few days ago has not been working, but I get the big pop today. That kind of helped me out there. Got a uh call debit spread, out of the money call debit spread, playing for AB to drift higher over the next 60 days. I need an up move of another you know 25 points or so to really start profiting on this. But you know, get the right move today. Hopefully, there's some follow-through on this, and we'll be fine. Uh GDX, this is the gold miners ETF. Got a short put. The gold mining sector doing bad today. Gold was down, so the gold futures, so a lot of the gold mining companies are also down. A lot of times, though, move in sympathy somewhat with gold itself, although the miners being stocks companies. You know, sometimes there will be a divergence between gold and the gold miners, but today both are down. GDX down one and a half percent on the day, hurting my short put a little bit, but I'm not too worried about it. It is a sector ETF, and this is a stock or ETF here that I don't mind taking shares of if I needed to. I it probably won't come to that because I got a lot of time, 60 days on the trade. I'm still out of money, out of the money on the put. Uh it's a 30 delta put currently, so it's not in the money. But this is one of those trades, like when you think about defending trades, like this is one I'm not really worried about that. Put I could just let that go and without management if I really wanted to, just because I don't mind taking the shares. Then I'll just run the wheel on GDX. It always is liquid, it always has good IV, the great uh sector ETF to get into if you're looking for a product to trade. If you've never traded GDX, check it out. I think you'll like the options markets in there. Intel, we mentioned, was up big. I've got a short put in it. It's doing fine. We're at 21% max profit, and there was a roll involved in there, but it's doing fine. Been in the trade for four days, so yeah, it's doing what it needs to do. I had a put on before that it came off at 50% profit, and then four days ago we put on the next one. We're just gonna keep riding the wave up until Intel decides it doesn't want to go up anymore. I'm just gonna keep selling puts on it. Uh, other things to mention here. SCHD for those holding shares of SCHD, this particular uh Schwab dividend ETF, it's up nine cents on the day. Not much of a move, but it's a move up on a day where the ES and the NQ are down. I often mention that SCHD, this particular basket of stocks in this ETF, a lot of times it kind of does its own thing. It's nice, uh a nice way to diversify as far as a lot of times the ES will be down, this will be up, or you know, the ES will be up and this will be down. So you get some different movement. You know, sometimes it it helps to diversify your portfolio a little bit, kind of balance things out. You don't want a whole lot of correlated positions that all move together all the time in your portfolio, because you know, if everything kind of is correlated and moves together, you know, if when you get a big crash down, for example, you know, everything will drop if it's all basically the same kind of correlated positions. That's why I like SCHD. It's also why trade things like gold and silver and occasionally wool or bonds. You know, you want to do some things that are not necessarily always the SP 500 or the Nasdaq 100. Uh SpaceX, so big drop we mentioned earlier. I've got a put credit spread here. This is in the money, just in the money. So this is not good. This trade has gone against me. It's a bullish trade, a put credit spread. And SpaceX has dropped considerably since I put this on on day one. Right? I probably shouldn't have traded this the first day or whatever. No, but hey, it is what it is. I put on a bullish trade, it's a defined risk trade. I got $175 credit for this $5 wide put credit spread. So $5 minus $175 means my max possible loss is $325 on the trade. So I'll hold this for the next 25 days and see if it comes back to me. And if it does, great. If it doesn't, well, I define my risk. So it's a spread. The max I can lose is $325. XLF, this is the financial sector. I'm bullish in the financial sector, so I bought some at the money calls, about 90 days out. Uh give myself about three months on this. Having a good upday in the financial sector, despite you know, the tech doing badly. Financials are doing well today. Then I've got a lot of uh butterfly spreads and XSP, a mixture of put butterflies and call butterflies uh laddered in. So I've got some that expire this week, a put butterfly and a call butterfly that expire this week, and then next week I've got the same a put butterfly and a call butterfly, and then two weeks out, the same, another put butterfly, call butterfly. I put these on every Friday at 21 DTE. I put these on every week, so you know I end up laddering into as many as six of these. And that's what I've got on right now. Uh, right now it looks like for this week the call butterfly, again, I put this on two weeks ago, 21 DTE. It's only got four days left. And when I put this on, the market was trading a bit higher than it is now. So this call butterfly is going to be a max loser, most likely. It's already printing a max loss. The put butterfly is actually going to be a winner. It's a broken wing put butterfly. It cannot lose to the upside. In fact, if we got a serious market sell-off, this could actually profit quite a bit more because it would actually fall into the profit tent of the put broken wing butterfly, but I'll get a little bit on it regardless. The ones that are further out in time, I got in at better prices uh compared to where we're currently trading in the SP 500. So most of this stuff is showing positive PLs. So, but we've got time on those. I don't have to worry about those. Only ones I need to worry about are the ones that expire this week. And because this is an index product, I don't have to manage it. Indexes, there's no assignment, there's no shares on an index product. So XSP, I just let these go to expiration if I want to, and no harm, no foul. Everything settles to cash. But a lot of times I will manage these if they're showing, um, especially early on in the trade, if they're showing a pretty decent profit, and a lot of times I'll take profit, you know, lock it, lock in that win, and move on. In this case, I don't think I'm gonna have anything to manage with either one of these trades. They're pretty much where they're gonna be at on Friday, probably. So I'm just gonna let all that expire on Friday.

SPEAKER_01 21:29

All right.

SPEAKER_00 21:31

That is a very quick and cursory look at the markets and my portfolio for you guys in the YouTube chat. Questions, comments, trade ideas, anything you want to get in before we call it a day. Right now, ES still down about 32 points, NASDAQ down 105, about a 0.4% drop in the ES, 0.3% drop in the NQ. The Russell is still positive. On the day, Russell's still up at 16 on the day. That's a half a percent up the day in the Russell.

SPEAKER_01 22:15

Oh, nothing from you guys.

SPEAKER_00 22:17

All right. Well, we'll keep this rather brief today. One thing I wouldn't mention is uh for those wondering about my portfolio. If you've followed the channel or maybe any of the Discord members here, I earlier this morning I did have some shares of TQQQ. I got out of those that share position this morning because I thought the NASDAQ looked kind of weak and uh was selling off. So sold my shares at uh $83.30, which was a fine. It was actually for a small profit from where I got in the last time. Um we have sold off since I sold those shares, so looks like that was the right thing to do, at least for right now. Uh, if it looks like the market wants to go back up, I might jump back into that position because this is a uh a core kind of position for me is shares of TQQQ, as long as the NASDAQ is in a bullish trend. So the way I play this for those new to the channel, uh I've done a couple of videos in the past on TQQQ. Take a look at that. So the way I do this is I go to the actual underlying that uh TQQ TQQQ is based off of. So go to the QQQ chart, the standard Nasdaq ETF chart. As long as my EMA ribbon here, and I've got five EMAs, I've got the 8, the 13, the 21, the 34, and the 55 EMA, as long as they're in a bullish signal, I stay in shares of TQQQ. When they flip over into a bearish signal, like back here during the market meltdown of February and March, I get out of shares of TQQ, right? And I I stick to this pretty close, you know, because I got out on the way down here, and I did get back in on the way up. Um, but here recently, I mean these EMAs, especially the top ones, the 8 and the 13, looking a little muddled, and really we haven't gone anywhere in the last five trading sessions, so yeah, I'm not sure if I want to hold those shares right now. I'm breaking my rules a little bit by being out right now, but I don't know. Uh I just uh sometimes you get intuition. I just got out of those shares. So as long as QQQ though is in a bullish signal, usually I'm holding shares of the TQQQ. And why do I use the chart for QQQ to determine how I trade TQQQ? It's because TQQQ, being triple levered, has a natural volatility drag, so uh its chart is a little funky compared to QQQQ just because of that natural uh volatility drag and price erosion to it. So that was a little bit of a topic there for you guys. Yeah, in the chat. Uh iTunes, do you trade leaps as well? Very rarely. Now I I typically don't go and buy leaps calls. That's not one of my four strategies. Uh certainly fine. Uh, you can certainly use it uh in if you want to replace, for example, holding shares of stock for you know just going and going out in January of 2027 or well January of 2028 is even because that's a year and a half out, and it's a a good time period to be out. You want to go buy like a 70 or 80 delta, you know, long call and something to be bullish. It basically works as a proxy for shares, but it it doesn't cost you quite as much to hold the option as the shares. The difference is the option has an expiration, all right. And if you don't finish uh in the money or you don't exercise the option, you really have nothing at the end other than cash where the shares you could theoretically just hold the shares forever and always have that asset, uh, especially if you're trying to acquire shares. Usually not what I'm trying to do in most things, you know, usually not trying to load up on shares. There's things I don't mind holding shares temporarily, but uh outside of the SCHD position, which you know I've I've held those shares for a little while. I'm usually now if I get a share position, I'll usually as an opportunity to run the wheel. You know, if I get a sign on a put, I'll take the shares and then sell some calls. Hopefully get my uh shares called away at a profit and then move on to the next trade. My trades are typically in the 60-day range. No, for most things. No, I've got some strategies that I put on that are a little shorter dated in time, month or less. Most things I'm in that 60-day range. A few of the strategies I use, I go out as far as 90 days, but usually not further than 90 days. So, and because of that shorter time frame, I'm usually mostly selling options rather than buying options. Because in that shorter time frame, you know, three months or less, theta is working in your benefit. You know, as each day passes, the price of the option uh erodes a little bit, and that time value is ticking out of that option as we get closer to expiration. And theta ramps up the closer you get to expiration. So 90 days that's working a little bit, 60 days it's really working, 30 days is really working, and you know, so that's why short options work best on shorter data trades. Um, if you're buying options, that's why people buy leaps, is because you go out a year, theta's barely working for you at that point. You're right. That time value is not punishing you way out in time the way it would be if you buy a call. It's a 30 DTE call. Theta's really punishing that call each day. Unless you're getting the move right. If you're getting the move right, you can overcome it. If you're not getting the move, though, that call is gonna lose value really quick as a 30-day trade. On a year, you've got time to let things play out, hopefully get the move right.

SPEAKER_01 28:09

Yeah, anything else before we jump off.

SPEAKER_00 28:12

Appreciate you guys for hanging out with me today. Hope you guys have been enjoying the the market outlooks here, the the new daily live streams. For those that want audio versions of this uh as a podcast, I do put this out as a podcast. It will be up in just a few minutes after uh after recording. So if you want to listen on a like an Apple or Spotify or wherever you download podcasts, typically, if you can't be on YouTube for the live stream, you can go back and listen. Typically, they're up and available, and sometimes as little as 15 minutes after I'm done here, you should be able to grab the audio podcast. Alright, guys. Well, I'm gonna go ahead and jump off. Guys, have fun trading on the day, and I'll be back tomorrow. Peace.