Market Outlook Live! (Jun 23, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Market Outlook Live. We are live on YouTube. I hope everybody is having a lovely day. No, today is a bit of a down day in the market. The tech stocks are selling off in a pretty significant way today. I mean, you don't get down moves of nearly 3% in the NASDAQ, uh, like we just did uh very often, but that is what is going on. The NASDAQ is the index that is down the most today because uh obviously it's the most tech heavy of the major market indices. We take a look at the SP 500 futures. Let's pull up the ES futures. Uh ES right now trading at $74.64, down $77 on the day. That's a 1% down move for the NQ. Again, very tech heavy. Tech is taking it on the chin today. Uh right now the NQ is down nearly 800 points on the day, trading at 29,857, down a little more than 2.5% on the day. It was down a little more than 3% earlier in the session, so it has rallied a little bit, but just a little bit. The Russell, also negative on the day, although less so. The Russell down only 0.5% on the day, down 14 points. And if you pull up the VX futures, the volatility futures here, the VIX futures are trading at 1930. So they're up 80 cents on the day. That's a 4.3% increase in volatility. If you take a look at some of the futures that are not the equity futures, what is moving around today in a big way? Well, the big mover to the downside, unfortunately for me, because it's one of my uh bullish positions, I've got quite a bit of uh bullish exposure in silver right now. The SI futures are down a little more than 5%. SIU6 is trading at $62.64. I am in SLV, the ETF, which is trading at $56.20 now, um, dropping $2.70 on the day. That is not great for the share position that I've been in for a while. Silver has just steadily stair stepped down. That's hurt the share position. I've been selling options around it though, both puts and calls. I have a short put that is in the money now, uh, pretty deep in the money. Uh it's a 62 delta put now, it's a 60 strike, and we're trading at 56. So $4 in the money. I'm prepared to take additional shares at that price if need be, because at some point I'm probably gonna have to average down on these shares anyway if we keep dropping. 60 is a nice uh spot to go ahead and average down. Plus, I get $5 credit on that put. I get a lot of premium on that put. Plus, I've gotten several dollars of premium along the way selling some other options. So my cost basis is quite a bit better than the $78.74 that the share position is showing. My cost basis is probably probably down around $74. Maybe I I don't know the exact number, but it's considerably lower than uh the trade price here that's being reported in Tasty because that's only factoring in the share position. It doesn't factor in the premium I've made from selling options around the share position. I did sell two new calls today because this down move is so vicious. I needed to add some calls, sold two calls this morning. So I've got one short put, two short calls plus 100 shares. It's kind of a covered strangle. It's got a lot of positive deltas, though. The total on the shares plus all the options together, I've got 132 positive deltas. So total, my position, it's like being long, 132 shares of SLV. Very bullish position. I need SLV to go up. I cannot buy an uptick right now. If anybody can make silver start moving up, I'd appreciate it. Because this move here, where we went from $80 down to $56 as of today, I mean, this has all happened in about a month. Well, maybe, maybe five weeks, maybe a month plus one week. This has been a pretty nasty drop. And uh hopefully we eventually get a move back up that is just as quick and violent. I would like that. I'd appreciate it. I know some of you guys are probably long, some of the precious metals as well. And silver and gold continue to take it on the chin. Gold is not down nearly as big as silver on a percentage basis today, but it is down one and a quarter percent. You can see also the last month and a half, and gold has not been good. It is trading at the lower end of its recent range as well. Its stock chart looks very similar to silver's stock chart. So, yeah, right now the precious metals do not look good. Crypto does not look good either. If we pull up the Ethereum futures, uh the ETH uh contract here, ETHN contract is trading at $1,665, down $76. That's a decrease of 4.39% on the day. Bitcoin down very similar, down 3.26% on the day. The BTC futures trading at 62,640, dropping 2,100 points on the day. Copper, just like the precious metals, gold and silver, copper is having a bad day, down three and a quarter percent. That's a pretty big drop in copper. Although it's still up toward the higher end of its recent range, it has not seen the sharp fall that silver and gold have seen. So if you're a copper bull, you're still probably okay right now, where the bulls in silver and gold are crying. I can vouch for that. Netty gas is down 1.6 percent today. Crude oil is also down. I think uh the market has pretty much priced in that the war is over. Uh CL Q6 is down 43 cents. Uh CL futures trading at 73.43 a barrel. Uh, for all intents and purposes, you know, the market uh it doesn't, it's not worried about oil anymore, right? Uh, we haven't actually been worried about oil in about a month. I mean, if you look at the stock chart, the market told you a few weeks back that, yeah, you know what, the uh the fear and uncertainty in oil is kind of priced in, and you know, I think we don't have to worry about that crazy upside risk in crude oil anymore. Some of the currencies are also moving around. Uh, this 6e contract, that's the Euro futures, the euro down 0.4% on the day. You see four big red candles the last four trading sessions. So the euro has been dropping sharply, the British pound down about a third of a percent as well today. Uh, yeah, and the 6C contract, which is your Canadian dollar, down 0.3% on the day, Japanese yen down small, 0.1% on the day. Japanese yen chart looks very ugly as this thing just stair steps down every single day. The bonds are up today, the ZB taking up six cents. That's a good sign because you know we want bonds to go higher. They were they were trading way too low just a couple of months back when they got into the 109 handle. Now the ZB trading at 112 and 28. So uh up about 0.17% on the day. The Zn, the 10-year notes, up five ticks, trading at 109 and 13.

SPEAKER_00 7:43

And that's about it for the futures.

SPEAKER_01 7:44

For those playing the agricultural futures, they were higher today. The ags, uh, well, soybeans was up a quarter of a percent on the day. Corn was up earlier today, but it looks like it has since sold off because I don't see it in my list of gainers. Let's see. Yeah, it reversed its move. It's actually lower on the day, now down about a third of a percent in the ZC futures. And for those in the YouTube chat, yeah, welcome. Uh Donald, what are the details of your SpaceX position? It's a put credit spread that is in the money now. So obviously, put credit spread bullish position. SpaceX been going down. I put that on very early uh when SpaceX pretty much first got options. So and it's gone down ever since. So I'm gonna be um a loser right now. I've got 24 days left in the trade, so it was a 31 DTE trade when I put it on. We're at 24 days. We get an up move. We're getting a little bit of up move in SpaceX, it's one of the few tech stocks that's actually up today. SpaceX, though, is an IPO, and because it's very early days in SpaceX, it's not really gonna have much correlation to the market. SpaceX is gonna be all over the place and do its own thing for the first couple of weeks probably of trading. So, you know, just if you're in a position, you know, SpaceX is gonna have a mind of its own. Um, there's a lot of randomness to it. So be careful, define your risk, do a spread like I did. That way, you know, if you uh you get the trade wrong, you know, you defined your risk, and you know, you're hopefully prepared to take the loss on a defined risk spread trade. I wouldn't do naked options right now because again, there's just way too much randomness. We take a look at what some of the tech stocks are doing, though, because that's today's story, is what is going on with tech. Let's start with the big movers to the downside. We got to start with the chip names. So micron is down $130 today. That's a big move, right? Down almost 11%. Now, Micron, of course, has had some gigantic moves to the upside. So this seems this normally in most stocks would be a crazy move, but in Micron, just because of the volatility, you know, this is this is not that unusual, unfortunately, right? For those playing it, you get whipsawed a lot on big up moves and big down moves. The last couple of weeks have been kind of rocky. I mean, we're still drifting higher in MU, but it does look like we ran out of steam a little bit where we were kind of exploding higher there for a while. I would say the last two weeks, I mean, we're we're mixing in some big red days with some big green days. Overall, the green days are pushing it higher a little bit, but I don't know if this thing is getting close to finding uh a ceiling, or at the very least, maybe it just drifts up like a normal stock rather than explodes higher all the time, like it was doing there for a while. Big down day, though, in MU, big down day also in Qualcomm down a little more than 10% on the day as well. Qualcomm down $22.50, trading around uh $199.50. Big down day. Also in ARM. Yeah, all these chip names getting killed. ARM down $35 on the day. That's an 8.5% decrease in ARM. ARM trading at just under $373 a share. AMD down $31.50 on the day. It's a big drop there. AMD down five and three-quarters of a percent on the day, trading just at $520 a share. Other big movers, Tesla, not a chip name, but down about 5% on the day, down about 20 bucks. Nvidia is a chip name, down three and three-quarters of a percent. Nvidia dropping around eight dollars, trading just above two hundred dollars a share. Intel down five dollars. That's a big move in Intel. That's a nearly four percent drop in Intel on the day. And I do have an Intel short put position. Now, Intel actually opened the day down ten dollars. So even though it's down five dollars, which is still a big down move, it's rallied. It's it's rallied a lot since the open. So Intel is actually pretty strong despite the weakness in the market. I know uh still it's down, but you know, my short put position really didn't like the ten dollar down opening. The five dollar down opening, uh, you know, we can deal with, but ten dollars, ten dollars a big move in a hundred and thirty dollar stock. Coinbase, of course, on the weakness of Ethereum and Bitcoin, crypto was very weak today, the crypto futures. So Coinbase and Sympathy is gonna be down, and it is down uh 3.3% on the day. Broadcom, another chip name, down 3.1% on the day. Oracle, also in that AI compute space, down almost 3% on the day. Google down $3, which is about a 1% down move in Google. Google had a very nasty drop on some bad news uh yesterday. We do have a few tech stocks that are higher. We mentioned SpaceX, SpaceX again, just IPO, and it kind of does its own thing. Um, but IBM bucking the trend, that is news related. Uh some uh firm, I guess, recommended IBM as a buy, and I guess the market reacted by buying it. I don't understand how people read uh those kinds of recommendations from banks and institutions, you know, whether it's a buy or a sell, and actually think that's that somebody's opinion is actually a good idea to go and buy and sell things. But sometimes the market does react this way, but IBM up $14 today, that's a five and a half percent up move in IBM. Microsoft's also up. Microsoft has been very badly beaten up. This chart looks like death. And on a day where the Nasdaq's down whatever it is, two and a half percent, whatever it was last I looked, Microsoft's up two percent. That's interesting. Maybe maybe it's found a floor. I don't know. One day is not a floor, but if we start seeing, you know, we get three or certainly four green candles in a row, I think that'd be a good sign for Microsoft because it hasn't had that in a while. Microsoft really needs to start moving back toward the upside because this thing was a $550 stock. Now it's $700. Well, now it's $374. So yeah, $175 off the share price in the last uh seven, eight months. That is a severe haircut. Amazon uh having a small green day up uh $1.78. Apple also up on the day, up $2.20. Meta also up a very tiny amount, up a buck fifty. So that's uh not much of a move. Netflix up 14 cents, basically unchanged on the day. But the fact that those stocks are unchanged to up small, I think is uh a positive sign for for those stocks on a day where tech is really selling off hard. Taking a quick look at some of the sector ETFs, let me go to one of my ETF watch lists and just check out what's moving. We know tech is what's killing the market today. XLK, the tech sector ETF, down 3.64%. But you do have some positive sectors. Uh you do have uh consumer staples. A lot of times when the market's doing bad, people will rotate out of tech and into more defensive sectors like consumer staples, and that's what's happening today. Consumer staples up almost two percent on the day. XLU utilities is up one percent, XL V healthcare is up 0.8%, the financials uh no the charts are loading slow here. Uh XLF, the financial sector ETF, up half a percent, energy's up half a percent. Uh XBI, the biotech industry ETF, uh, is up one percent. So biotech doing well. Really, it's uh tech that is down big, industrial is down one and a half percent, also down big, and then metals, anything metal related, gold, silver, copper all got killed today. So a lot of the mining companies are not doing great. So that was a very quick and cursory look at what the market is doing right now. Let me switch back over to my futures watch list and see what is going on with the ES and the NQ. Yeah, the ES still down 90, that's 1.2% drop. NQ down nearly 900 points, it's a 2.9% drop. And the RTY now down 2350, that is a three-quarters of a percent drop. So, you guys hanging out in the YouTube chat, if you got questions, comments, anything, feel free to ask away. Uh yeah, eGuti. I don't know if I pronounced your name right. I apologize if I didn't. Do you trade options on SCHD? No, they do have options, but the premiums are not very good. It's a very, very low IV product. When we go to the options chain for SCHD, the IVX in the July monthly cycle is 12.1%. The IVX in the August monthly cycle is 13.5%. That's extremely low volatility. So um you go to the options chain, go to the side here, IVX, 13.5%. That's your actual implied volatility percent there. That is, I mean, that's so low, that's almost bond like volatility. If I go to uh TLT, which is your uh long bond ETF, your 20, 30 year, you know, like ZB uh futures type bonds. Uh, this is the ETF version of that, yeah. TLT. Yeah, the August monthly cycle, IVX, 11%, right? Really, really low IV in the bonds because they they barely move compared to equities. But SCHD is very like much like that. Very low IV. With low IV, it doesn't make sense to go and sell options on this thing. I go the 59-day cycle. If I sell the 30 delta put here, I get 35 cents credit. That's not great. Buying power reduction 544, which is okay, I guess, in a $30 stock. Uh but still, it's not a lot of credit. Tying up $540 to make 35 cents, that's not great risk reward. That's not a smart use of capital. I can go find many more uh trades that make much more sense as far as you know putting up less money to make a lot more. So and I'm holding shares. I would never sell calls against the calls, really wide bit as spreads here in the August cycle. If I go to the July 24-day cycle, tighter bit as spreads here, but still I sell the at-the-money call, the 47 Delta call, which has a very high chance of me getting my shares called away. I'm only getting 32 cents to sell the at-the-money call.

SPEAKER_00 19:02

It's not a lot of premium. Just it's not worth I can't do it.

SPEAKER_01 19:10

So for me, SCHD, and for most people, SCHD is a buy and hold strategy, right? It's it's more of a long-term passive investment. The option markets I don't think the it's a problem with uh liquidity as far as people trading it. It's just there's not enough IV there because it's a basket of a hundred stocks, mostly dividend-paying stocks or blue chips, not as tech heavy. So it's a lot of low IV stocks that are in that basket of stocks, too. So it just doesn't move much. So it makes a lot of the strategies I like, which are short option strategies, it it makes it not great. It's kind of like the financials. I don't do a lot of uh trades in financial stocks because the IV is way too low on financial stocks typically. If I go back to the financial sector ETF, XLF, take a look at what the financial sector IV is. The IVX is 18% in the August cycle. That's extremely low IV compared to other sectors. I mean, XLK, the tech sector, the IVX is 40% in the August cycle. I can go get some juicy premiums by selling these options. Or I can't get anything selling options in the financial sector or you know, some of the banks. I don't know. What's Citigroup looking like? It's got an IV rank of 38. IVX. Not bad actually for an individual bank. The banks usually don't have you know, they're gonna have IV typically of like 20 to 25 percent. IVX of 32% is not bad in a bank. Citigroup trading at $145 a share. Bit S breads are pretty tight. If I sell this 18 Delta put for $2 credit, buying power reduction of $13.37. I don't hate it. If you want a bullish trade in a bank, if you want to sell both sides, sell the 16 delta call, you get a 343 credit on a buying power reduction of 1458. Yeah, like the trade. If I needed a trade, I'd put that on. P50 number 84%. And what I like about it for me, because of the way I trade, I'm mostly trading tech stocks, so every now and then it's I I need to remind myself, go put on something that's not an AI related name. You know, some that way you have some diversification. So I don't trade a lot of the banks that often, but every now and then it'd be good for me to go put on something in a sector I normally don't play around in. Some of the things I did today, uh, I had some shares of TQQQ that I got out of, you know, because the NASDAQ was down three percent overnight, still down three percent, and uh I had a Share position lost a thousand dollars on the share position today. Now that thousand dollars that it pulled back today before I got out of the shares, I basically got out where I got in the last time I bought in about a two weeks ago. So no harm, no foul really on that. Um, I also got out of some of my call butterflies and XSP because we pulled back so much today in ES. Some of the call butterflies. I've got one that expires this week that was already a max loser. I didn't have to do anything to that one. It's a max loser, it is what it is. I just let that expire worthless on Friday. But I had another call butterfly out here at nine days that was only like a 45% loser. I went ahead and took that off. I I just booked that 45% loss because I didn't have high hopes that I would was going to win after the big down move today because it was already kind of you know a long shot position, and it just got a much longer shot of me winning on that trade. So the fact that I could get out at a smaller loss was good. So I took that off. The one at 17 days I had on, uh call butterfly, also I was able to get out of that for about a 40 to 50% loser. Because those positions, uh again, because of the big down move, the pop on those, uh, the likelihood I was going to win was very low, I'm sure, you know, less than 10%. You know. So I'm just gonna book the 50% loss and move on. Why take a hundred percent loss? Now, a lot of times these butterflies, the reason I put these on at 21 DTE is because if you put it on at 21 DTE and the market moves drastically against you pretty early in the trade, you're showing a loss, but you're nowhere near the max loss yet. So a lot of times you can just go ahead and book that lesser loss and then put on the new trade that's better strikes for you. Because the butterflies really don't start moving until kind of late in the trade. You don't see big PL swings.

SPEAKER_00 23:52

So that's one nice thing about them. Yeah, yeah, in the chat. Uh says thanks, DT. Yeah, no problem. Anything else from you guys? Uh don't have much to do in my portfolio.

SPEAKER_01 24:10

Again, I closed uh some bullish trades that I I didn't want to have on right now, obviously, with the market settling off big today. And I'm really not interested in taking any new trades, uh, even though I freed up some buying power getting out of the TQQ uh position and the XSP positions. I could put on some new trades, but I think today with the market being down kind of big, I just want to sit and wait, see what happens. The only position that really has just kind of bugged me all year, silver. Silver's been the worst trade uh all year for me. I had that $6,500 loss on silver during the crash in January, where silver crashed 30% in one day, and I was holding a pretty sizable position at the time. Uh now I'm back in it, and this has not been working. I've been playing silver all year, and it's yeah, it's definitely been the worst trade all year. Uh oddly enough, the market I've played the stock market great. The ES, even with the downturn in the market, February and March, I played that thing beautifully because I was mostly neutral to bearish. You know, I like I really timed getting out a lot of my bullish stuff and getting into some more bearish trades. And then on the way back up, I was also timed that well, getting back on the bullish side. So uh ES, MES, uh your SP 500 products, XSP, they've been my best performing ticker all year. And silver has been my best my worst performing. Like if I could have just you know not played the metals, but the good thing about silver is I don't mind holding shares long term. So this loss here, I don't necessarily ever have to realize it because it is an asset. Silver is one of those things that's never going to zero. If I hold it long enough, it'll go back up. So that's the beauty of holding something like a silver rather than like an individual stock, you know, like a uh like a McDonald's or a Walmart or something like that. You know, can stocks go to zero? Yeah, they can go bankrupt, even though the stocks I just mentioned, Walmart and McDonald's, I don't think they're going bankrupt anytime soon, but there is risk. You know, sometimes stocks they reach a peak. Well, maybe that industry reaches a peak. Remember the car industry, you know, the biggest companies in the stock market at one time in the early part of the 20th century, Ford was the biggest company. And then later on, say 19, what was it, 1970s, 1980s, General Motors is the biggest company in the world. For decades, it was the big American car companies that were the biggest companies in the world, and that's long past. What's going on with those stocks these days, right? So sometimes stocks or just sectors in general, they they reach a peak and then they start declining and they never recover. And that is some of the risk you get with equities, with especially single stock risk, with market ETFs, sector ETFs, industry ETFs, baskets of stocks, a little less risk on that. Certainly with commodities, especially ones that appreciate in value, like a gold and silver. It's a rocky road, but long term. I mean, is gold and silver ever going to be worthless? No, there's always going to be a demand for them. What I like is making sure that, you know, as I'm trading, if I have to take shares of something, it's something that has some value. It's an asset worth me owning. Yeah, you guys in the chat, appreciate the questions. Uh, Donald, are you going to do these market updates regularly on YouTube? Yeah, right now my plan is to do that. I've enjoyed uh doing these on a daily basis.

SPEAKER_00 27:43

So I hope you guys have been enjoying the new format as well.

SPEAKER_01 27:49

My plan is to, yeah, the 30-minute-a-day YouTube video, and they are these are available as audio-only podcasts. Right after the show uh airs, I upload the audio-only version of the recording. So if you guys want to listen to it on like a Spotify or a uh Apple or whatever, wherever you get your podcasts, it is available as a podcast. Typically, that's available in your podcast platform, whatever it is you listen to. Uh usually about 15 minutes after I stop the recording. Usually it's already there for you. Yeah, speckle. Love your content, DT. Appreciate that, Speckle. Alright, guys. Anything else?

SPEAKER_00 28:29

Last chance for questions, comments, anything before we jump off. One thing I do want to mention, there are some earnings tomorrow for those that want to play them.

SPEAKER_01 28:40

These are not the sexiest stocks. FedEx reports tomorrow morning. $321 a share stock. IV rank. Nice. $84. Not the most liquid stock though, so it's not something I like playing. Really wide bidass spreads. If you play it, maybe do a spread. You know, put credit spread, call credit spread, iron condor. Naked options, I wouldn't feel comfortable with because the bid ass spreads are like a buck fifty wide. Really wide bid ass spreads. Uh, another one that reports in the morning, KBH, which is KB Homes, one of the big home builders, not very liquid. Don't even bother trying to trade options on it. It's not worth your time. I mention it because one of the home builders, if you're following the home building sector, you know, that might be a stock to track. Yeah, Donald, he says, yeah, great format. Look forward to the audio version when I can't tune in here. Yep. Well, a lot of people like audio versions because, yeah, it's better, especially if you're listening like at the gym, which is where I listen to a lot of my podcasts. I actually, you know, go to the gym about four, sometimes five days a week, uh, or about an hour and a half, you know. And you can't watch a video while you're lifting weights, obviously. So having the audio only version of the podcast certainly makes sense. All right, guys, I'm gonna go ahead and jump off. Guys, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have fun trading and peace.