Market Outlook Live! (Jun 26, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:04

And we are live. Welcome to another edition of Market Outlook Live. Hope everyone is doing well today. Today is an interesting day in the market because the ES and the RTY are really just unchanged today, right? The SP and the Russell, but the Nasdaq is down a little bit today. Tech is selling off, but tech has been doing some weird things in the last couple of weeks. Um there has been this rotation out of uh especially the Mag 7 type stocks. I've noticed that the Mag 7 stocks look kind of bad. All of them look bad. But the market, oddly enough, is near all-time highs because of uh some of the momentum plays with some of the memory stocks like Micron and Sand Disk. You do have a lot of strength right now, and the energy sector's been strong all year. But you would think because the market indexes, uh especially the SP 500 and the Nasdaq, they are uh cap weighted, right? They're they're weighted based on market cap. So the biggest companies have the biggest weighting, and the biggest companies are the Mag 7. And the fact that the Mag 7, the last uh month or so, to me, most of their charts look pretty bad. Let's actually jump in to the charts here. Let's start with a quick overview of what the market is doing right this second. Right now, the ES is unchanged on the day, down one point, it's moving around, it's basically unchanged. The RTY down two points, basically unchanged. It's yeah, these are nothing moves. Now we've been up slightly and down slightly in both of these indexes today. So it's a market that doesn't really know what it wants to do. Maybe it doesn't want to do anything today. But the NASDAQ has been down most of the day. The NASDAQ actually traded all the way down to 29,170 or so uh during the overnight session. Right now, we're at 29,525, so we've rallied quite a bit off the bottom. And you know, that was good for me. I actually bought some shares of TQQQ earlier in the overnight session on the bottom, uh, toward the bottom of that move. And even though we're still down on the day of the NASDAQ because I bought in a low on the day, you know, I made a little money here trading the triple levered uh NASDAQ product here, the TQQQ. Uh other than that, I don't have a lot going on with my portfolio on mostly an unchanged kind of day. If we take a look at volatility slash VX, which is the VIX futures, uh VX is trading at $19.30, up 19 cents on the day, so volatility increasing ever so slightly today. And some of that is just some of the big crazy moves in tech. Let me actually pull up one of my tech watch lists here. Pull up the uh watch list here I've created on a lot of your big mega cap tech names. Today is a really strange mixed bag. Apple is up five dollars. Now, Apple, one of the Mag 7 stocks, has looked pretty bad lately. Uh up a little bit today, but you can see the gigantic down move it made yesterday. So, I mean it's you know having a day today, but but compared to the down moves, um, today's rally is not going to make up for what has seen a drop from around $317 a share to $280 a share as of this second. AMD is down $14.50, but AMD is still trading up here toward the higher end of its range. AMD's been one of the hot momentum kind of plays lately. Amazon, again, one of the Mag 7 type stocks, is up $4.20 today, which is a nearly 2% up move. But if you zoom out on the stock, you can see this thing has been stair-stepping down for a couple of months, maybe three months. This has been a slow grind down. Amazon made a high back in the first part of May of around $278. Amazon is now trading at $231. So a pretty severe haircut in a very big company. ARM is down on the day. ARM down 14 points. That's a 4% decline in ARM. And that's uh the sixth straight red candle in ARM. It made a high of $454 just a week ago, and now it's trading at $333. I mean, these moves are insane, up and down in some of these stocks. AVGO Broadcom, down 11 points today. This is another one that in the last couple of weeks has just fell off a cliff. It's uh it's not a mag 7 type stock, but that it's in the Mag 10 index, right? The Mag 10 is your Mag 7 plus Broadcom, Palantir, and I believe AMD. So uh this this looks ugly. Speaking of Palantir, since I mentioned it, one of the ugliest looking charts you'll ever see. Palantir in the last few months has gone from, I mean, it made a high of what $206 a share. Now it's trading at $112. This thing has been cut in half in less than a year. Uh you know, obviously, back in the day, you know, a couple of years ago, when it was basically a $10 stock, all the YouTube gurus were pushing this thing. Everybody was pumping this thing. Go buy Palantir, it's going to a million dollars a share. And they successfully pumped this thing up. But at some point, you know, it you have to have a company that's profitable, and the profits have to make sense compared to the share price. And this thing really just got ahead of itself. And I think a pullback was eventually going to happen. I I wouldn't have predicted that the thing would get cut in half the way it has, but that has been the case so far in Palantir. Uh, going over some of the other mag 10 type stocks, Google has not looked good in the last month. It's been slowly trending lower. I stared stepping down in the last month. Google currently trading at $341 a share. It made a high of a little over $400, maybe $410 just a month ago, now trading at $341. Meta is another one. This chart, I've been saying for months Meta looks ugly. This has not been a good looking chart. We zoom out and go back uh uh you know a little less than a year ago, it was trading at $800 a share. Now it's trading at $553. Microsoft, one of the ugliest charts, especially if you if you have some recency bias, just look at the last month in Microsoft. That is like falling off a cliff. This thing in the last month has gone from 464 to 369. You know, it's lost about a hundred points. Uh yeah, just again, these mag 10 type stocks, they don't they don't look good. Tesla trading at 378, also been trending lower a little bit, although its chart is not quite as ugly as the rest. It's still it's not trending higher for sure. Nvidia is another one. NVIDIA in the last two months has lost nearly 20% of its value. You know, and it's kind of been a sneaky little sell-off in NVIDIA because it's not huge down moves, and there has been the occasional green candle, but overall, I mean this thing has gone from $236 and change down to, as of right now, $192. That's a good sell-off in a very large company, the largest company uh by market cap. And that's what's weird about this market when they were trading near all-time highs, and the biggest stocks in the indexes are all that they're all of their charts look bad, right? So, what is saving this market? Well, obviously, MU Micron. This thing just continues to scream. Uh, some of the other memory stocks, uh Sandisc, now currently trading at $21.66. I mean, this thing was was $50, and now it's you know almost $2,200. Uh just insane. WDC Western Digital. I haven't checked this lately on $610 a share today. This is another one that went from you know $50, $60 a share till $600 and change here. It actually got as high as almost $800 a share just a few trading sessions ago. So the memory stocks continue to be strong. We take a look at DRAM, the memory ETF, you can see, yeah, the memory uh industry here still strong. And a lot of that's where a lot of that money is going. People are rotating out of those traditional Mag 10 type stocks. A lot of your software names, a lot of your cloud service provider names, because that's what most of the Mag 10 is, right? They're semiconductors, they're cloud providers like an Amazon and a Google, Microsoft has some exposure there. Uh software, Microsoft makes a lot of software. Uh, Oracle is another big software maker. You can see its chart looks almost exactly like Microsoft's. Remember the Cliff and Microsoft where it had a little bit of a pop and then dropped about a month ago. They're almost the same chart. If you overlay Microsoft onto Oracle, the charts, they're practically the same. And as a matter of fact, you want to get really freaky, do Palantir as well. All three charts look exactly the same. And if you go to IGV, which is the tech software ETF, its chart, I mean, that's that's the software industry right there, right? That's and what is the biggest components as far as tech software? Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, other names in that space would be Adobe, which we know Adobe, just this stock has languished for nearly two years now. I mean, this is this is this chart looks like death. Um some of your software names that I right now look bad. Now, I think eventually, especially things like Microsoft and Oracle, I mean, I think people will eventually rotate back into these once the memory trade plays out. Because right now, that's where all the action's at. Everybody's playing the memory stocks. Eventually, they'll rotate back into some of those Mag 10 type stocks. They have to, right? Microsoft's not going anywhere. Nvidia's not going anywhere, right? Those are real companies with real profits, and their technology is going to be needed. Uh the chip space is not going anywhere. People are still going to need NVIDIA and AMD and Broadcom as far as the chips. Intel uh as well. You know, those names will be around. Also, at some point during the AI buildout, um, right now, you know, early on in the AI build-out, uh, the AI boom, it was all about, hey, we need semiconductors, we need chips. That's why NVIDIA and AMD exploded. Right. And then after that move happened, it's like, okay, we got the chips. We need some memory. Now, Micron and Sandis and all of that explodes. And at some point, they're going to need the software, and then people are going to rotate back to Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, you know, those names. And then at some point, you also need energy to power all of this. And at some point, I think you're going to see some serious movement in the energy sector. I mean, the energy sector's been strong this year anyway, mainly due to the Middle East conflict. But I think part of the AI build out will also be a real boom in energy at some point. So you're going to see rotations from these sectors slash industries. Uh, the money has to move around, right? And when trillions of dollars move into something like a micron, for example, it has to move out of something. What did it move out of? Microsoft, Amazon, Meta. It moved out of all of those names. Um, yeah, for those of you in the YouTube chat, yeah. Good morning. Hope everybody's having a lovely day trading today. Yeah, happy Friday. Yeah, Microsoft bottom. You can't call a bottom yet, right? You've got to actually have the chart confirm that you know something different is going on right now. One green candle doesn't tell you anything. If you get three or four green candles in a row, that's a good sign. Uh, one green candle. I wouldn't go sell a naked put in Microsoft today. That's you're you're asking for a lot of potential pain and heartache. Yeah, let's jump into uh one of my watch lists here. Let me pull up the futures watch list because we've talked about a lot of the uh what's going on with the indexes and you know individual equities. Let's actually take a look at some of the futures, the non-index futures moving around today. The big mover to the downside is crude oil. If we pull up CL Q6, uh CL is down $3.13 on the day. That's a 4%, 4.4% decrease in crude oil, trading at $68.76 uh cents a barrel. That is a new recent low. That's the lowest it's been since going back to March 2nd or 3rd. This is uh yeah, many months now, several months since the last time we were at this level in CL. Again, the market is pretty much priced in. That everything in the Middle East has played out. The war is over, even if the war, even if the war wasn't over, if they started bombing again today, I mean, the market's kind of already priced in all of that fear. Yeah, and the market has realized, you know what, this uh this conflict in the Middle East really didn't disrupt things as badly as we thought. And a lot of that has to do with the production of non-Middle Eastern uh countries as far as crude oil. Obviously, the U.S. is the biggest producer of crude oil. China obviously has crude oil. Uh Russia, big oil and gas producer, Canada as well. You know, uh there was not nearly, I mean, there was some disruption, obviously, but you know, if this kind of event would have happened 20 years ago, you would have seen crude oil go to $200 a barrel because the Middle East was uh a much bigger player in that space as they dominated the oil and natural gas kind of space. But now so many other countries have realized that energy independence is so important. You know, that's why you know about 20 years ago, especially the United States really, you know, we were already producing some oil and gas ourselves, but it was like, hey, we're gonna become completely independent where we don't need any oil at all from any other country, especially uh Middle East, you know, that way we don't have to worry about that geopolitical stuff. And uh yeah, it's interesting that you know I would have thought this would have been worse than it was, but we came out of that pretty well, I think, as far as the uh the overall market. So CL down quite a bit. Um anything else moving? There's not a lot of futures that are actually lower today. Uh mostly uh oil related, uh Brent crude obviously down, gasoline futures are down, heating oil is down. For those playing the ag futures, uh wheat, corn, soybeans, they were all lower today. Wheat was the biggest mover down, down uh 1.8%. Uh soybeans down 0.3%. Let's take a quick look at what the bonds are doing today. So the ZB, the 30-year bond is up one tick. When I got up this morning, it was actually down pretty big. We were down about 12 or 13 ticks earlier this session. So the bonds have actually rallied today to being unchanged, if not one tick up. Yeah. ZB trading at 114.04 ZN, which is your 10-year notes. They are also up a little bit, up six and a half ticks trading at 1109.5. Bitcoin is positive today. The BTC futures up 540 points. That's about a 0.9% increase, trading just a hair under 60k. Bitcoin, uh really crypto in general, has been very badly beaten up. This this is not a good looking chart either, and this is the future, so it's not a continuous contract. But if I did uh iBit the ETF and zoom out, I mean since we made this high back here, uh October of last year, I mean, this has been iBit was trading at $72 a share that day and is now trading at $33.85. That is more than a 50% cut. Right? That is just crazy how much value uh crypto has lost, and a lot of that is just nobody's interested in trading it right now because it's not the trade. Everybody's on the AI trade. Uh the metals are moving around a little bit today as well. We sort by change percent. Gold and silver have been badly beaten up, they're getting an upday today. Uh, gold is up one and a quarter percent, up 50 points. Right now, GC is trading at 4097. SI is also up a little bit. Uh the SI futures are up 1.2% as well, very similar to gold. Right now, SIU6 is trading at $59.55. My SLV position because I'm using the ETF, I've got a lot of stuff going on. It's a badly beaten up position because the shares are deep underwater, and I've been in this for a while as silver has been in full-blown crash mode. Down uh $2,500 on the shares, down about $800 on the short put. I do have a put butterfly that expires next week, a downside put butterfly. So if uh silver continues this down move over the next week, probably make a couple hundred bucks on that, which will help offset some of the losses going on with the shares and the put here. Ideally, though, I'd like a couple of updays. We're getting one today. I'd like an upday Monday, maybe Tuesday next week. You know, if I can get uh SLV to go up three or four points, I'd probably start selling some calls again. I sold some calls earlier in the week and they were like a one-day trade where I made 50% in one day. But that was one of those days where silver was really in crash mode. It went down like 7% in that one day. So it was just perfect timing selling those calls. Some of the other futures moving around 6E, which is your Euros, the Euro future, uh up a quarter of a percent, not much of a move. I would say the currency's not really doing too much today. And taking a quick look at my portfolio here. I've got some put ratio spreads in MES. They're fine on a day where the market is unchanged. So it's perfect for that trade. GDX, this is another trade's gone badly against me for a while. Um started life as a short put. I've sold some calls against that short put, turned it into a strangle because I needed to defend the short put. At one point, it was at the money, maybe in the money a little bit. Now we're back out of the money, we're having a good upday because gold was up, so the gold miners are up. But the put is a 33 delta put, so we're back out of the money. The call is a 17 delta call, so overall the position is 16 long deltas. So that helps, uh, as far especially if this does turn around and start going lower. I'm only losing $16 for every point GDX goes down now, where if I didn't have that uh that short call to offset some of those deltas, yeah, I'd be losing what $33 uh dollars every point we go down because the put has 33 deltas. So if you're new to options trading, one of the most important metrics you need to pay attention to is delta. Delta tells you your directional risk on the trade. It tells you basically how much you lose or make for every point that you go up and down in the underlying stock or ETF. So it's something you should know on every single position you have. You should know the delta on that position, and if it's not a delta that um makes sense, you need to adjust it. Like, for example, I know I like selling puts around 15 to 20 deltas. So this GDX put that I have on. All right, I probably sold that as maybe a 15 delta put. Now it's a 32 delta put. So I know that put has gone against me because if it went in my direction, the deltas would go lower. It's actually gone up, meaning the risk on the trade is going up. That's why I sold the call against that. Because by selling the call, I reduce the deltas by 17, because I sold the short call, which is short deltas. Overall, now the position now has a total delta I get out of that of 15 total deltas, exactly where I started life on the trade. So that's how you manage these sorts of positions, right? You you start with a certain delta in mind, and sometimes you need to make some adjustments or some defensive plays to get those deltas back to where you start. Intel down big today, down $4.60. It's a pretty good move. Intel is very volatile, it it makes big moves every day, up and down. Uh and I've been in this particular trade for eight days, hasn't done too much yet, uh, mainly because it's been big up and down moves. It's pretty much where it started life at when I put it on eight days ago. I've been selling puts on a regular basis in Intel. They've been they've been a profitable trade. I'm gonna keep selling puts over and over again in Intel until it stops working. Uh, anything else uh notable? Yeah, this right here, SCHD. I know a lot of you guys, if you have uh passive investment portfolios, many of you guys hold shares in this particular ETF. This is the Schwab Dividend ETF, up 32 cents today. That's a big Move. This is not a very volatile ETF. It's a basket of uh around 100 dividend paying stocks. And those kinds of stocks, dividend paying stocks, are typically your blue chip names. They're low volatility stocks. And yeah, it's a good move in that. You don't see uh, especially when the market's not moving. Yeah, it's unusual that that is up as big as it is. Uh anything else. I've got this shares of TQQQ. I need to monitor this position. At some point, I may just close out of this and just call it a day on that. I may not want to hold those shares over the weekend. Um XSP, I put on some new trades. So one of my core strategies is every Friday I put on two butterflies at 21 DTE. I put on a put broken wing butterfly and a call broken wing butterfly. The call broken wing butterfly I do a little different though. I break the wing so I can't lose to the upside rather than the downside. The put butterfly, I do that the traditional way where I can't lose to the upside, but I lose massively on the downside on that. Which is typically the way you would put on a put broken wing butterfly. But the coal uh butterfly, I break the opposite wing. And that's just because of the positive drift of the market. You know, a lot of times, you know, you the market can move above that butterfly, and I don't want to lose if uh, you know, the SP really screams higher. So a lot of times I break it, so I can't possibly lose uh to the upside. But those have been great trades all year. One of the best performing tickers for me, XSP. Um other than that, right now I am just in a wait-and-see mode here for today.

SPEAKER_01 23:43

One thing I could do, am I ready to put in like a stop loss order on this?

SPEAKER_00 23:52

Yeah. At some point I'm gonna get out of that trade today because this takes up uh quite a bit of buying power. This TQQ position, uh, I have 150 shares, and I only get like a 25% margin relief on this leverage ETF because the broker requires a little bit higher margin on this because it's a riskier kind of product. So I bet my buying power on that is 10 grand or more. So it takes up a lot of money to hold that position. I don't want to hold it over the weekend, so I'll probably get out of that before close today. For those of you in the YouTube chat, if you got any questions or comments, trade ideas, problem trades, anything you want to discuss before we jump off of the stream today. I appreciate you guys hanging out. One thing to note next week is a four-day trading week. The market will be closed next Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the July 4th holiday. So they're gonna the actual federal holiday will be Friday, July 3rd, and all the federal employees will get the day off, but it's also a stock market holiday. The exchanges, uh, New York Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ, they will be closed, so there will be no stock trading that day. And so there's no stocks trading that day. Uh we won't meet, so there will not be a market outlook next Friday. The futures, I think, will trade half a day, so you might get some futures trading that morning, but you can't trade stocks, and if the stocks are not trading, there's no stock options trading either. So when you trade futures and futures options, I think until noon on uh Friday the third.

SPEAKER_01 25:30

Alright. Taking a quick look here.

SPEAKER_00 25:36

Yeah, I've got a few people here in the YouTube chat. Doesn't look like anybody had any questions. Well, I'm gonna jump back into the trading platform then. I'm gonna go ahead and uh put in a stop loss order. I'll just put in a bracket order. My cost on these shares was $73 even. I'm just gonna go ahead, where are we trading at? $73.50. I'm gonna get out at $73.25, which is pretty aggressive. That's probably gonna get triggered pretty quick. I'll put in a take profit at $80, which is way above where we're trading, but I can adjust, I can adjust these later. So put that in.

SPEAKER_01 26:15

Dismiss all of these notices. There we go.

SPEAKER_00 26:20

Yeah. I just want to make sure we lock in. That's a winning trade. So and I for those that were with us yesterday, I was in and out of shares of TQQ um yesterday. I played the triple levered NASDAQ yesterday. I didn't make anything. I uh got in and out of it, I think three different times during the the trading session yesterday. And uh yeah, I scratched because yeah, I had some stop loss, I had some bracket orders, take profit stop losses, and uh and they all got triggered at some point, and in the end, uh yeah, it was a non-event yesterday. Didn't make anything, didn't lose anything. Made a little bit today, though. All right, last call for those in the YouTube chat. Last chance for questions or comments. If not, we will call it a day. Well, actually, call it a week. Overall, pretty good week, I would say, in the trading uh portfolio here. The only problem trade for me, really in the last couple of weeks, has been the silver trade, but the silver trade is a longer term trade. I'm prepared to hold those shares of SLV for a while. I don't mind adding to the position if that short put gets assigned. I don't mind running the wheel on it. It's one of my go-to strategies anyway, especially on things that I don't mind owning. I don't mind owning those shares. So uh the wheel strategy, of course, is you sell a put, and if you get assigned the shares, then you turn around and sell cover calls against the shares till the shares get called away, and then you start selling puts again and hence running the wheel. Matter of fact, if you haven't already, check out my book, The Super Wheel Option Strategy. This book here, it's available on Amazon. You'll find a link in the description below to that book. It's about the wheel option strategy. It covers, especially if you're brand new to options traders, uh, to options trading. I wrote that book specifically for new options traders, although it's got some more advanced concepts in it as well. But you know, I speak to you guys in like normal kind of English. Like I don't cover a lot of you know the calculus behind options or anything. So it's a pretty easy to understand book. It covers all the basics of you know what options are, puts and calls, long and short. I cover a lot of your uh standard kind of basic options trades, what a short put strategy is, covered call, what cover strangles, things like that. I cover all the Greeks, Delta, theta, Vega, Gamma. Um talk about what implied volatility is and the importance of liquidity and all of that. So if you're brand new to options trading, check out that book. I think uh I think it'll help you help speed along your uh your education in this if you're looking to get into options trading. All right, guys. Well, I'm gonna go ahead and get out of here. Have fun trading and