Market Outlook Live! (Jun 29, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:04

And we are live. Welcome to another edition of Market Outlook Live. Hope everybody is doing well today. Been kind of a back and forth day in the market. We've seen some good two-sided action in this market. Overnight, the ES and the NQ, they both were higher, and then they really went higher. And then this morning they sold off to practically being unchanged on the day, now rallying again. It's been uh it's been an interesting day, uh, especially considering that this is a uh shortened week. It's a holiday week. So uh we're only gonna have four trading sessions this week, Monday through Thursday. Friday will be a stock market holiday. It'll be uh July 3rd. The markets will be closed in observance of the July 4th holiday. So they have to give them a oh a Monday through Friday holiday. So since um the fourth falls on the Saturday, they're gonna give them the uh third, the Friday, the third, as a holiday. So I will not be doing a market outlook on Friday because there's no point since the stock exchanges will be closed. But right now, um the stock market is trading, and right now all signs look like uh this market wants to go up. Right now, the ES is up 62. It was as high as 80 at one point, and then it sold back off to only being up about 30, and now back up at 63. Now some some pretty good action here. Again, I'm a little surprised. I thought today would be a boring day. But if you look at the one-minute chart here in the ES, you can see uh when the market opened here and we rallied and then we sold off hard and then came roaring back a little bit. Uh, right now, though, the ES trading at 7464, up 62.5 points. That is a 0.84% up day. If we move over to the NQ, the NASDAQ futures. Right now, the Nasdaq is up 350 points, that's a 1.2% gain on the day in the NQ. The RTY futures, the Russell 2000 futures, are up uh 14 points. That's a half a percent. Oh, actually, they're down 14 points, excuse me. Well, so the Russell it did reverse as well, but it actually did not rally back. So if we take a look at the one-minute chart on the Russell, you see we dropped, it went negative, it did rally back, but it didn't didn't recover from the drop here earlier in the morning. So the Russell was actually down on the day. I did not see that one coming because the Russell was up half a percent this morning. Now it's down half a percent. Interesting. And then /vx, the volatility futures here. Uh down 41 cents. So volatility is contracting. So, and this is about where we were at the beginning of the trading session when I first got up this morning. The VX futures, I think we're down 44 cents, 45 cents, still down 41 cents. So volatility is not ticking up. So this is not a market that seems like it's really worried. So, no, but again, some good two-sided action in the major indices. Taking a look at some of the futures, the non-index futures, what's moving around to the downside today? Netty gas is our big mover down, down 3% on the day. Silver, which continues to be my nemesis, right? The silver trade, it just keeps costing me money. Uh, silver down another 2.2% today. Of course, I'm in the uh ETF SLV. SLV currently trading at $52.39 after making a high of $110 or so back at the end of January, first of February. Remember, first trading day of February was the big crash where silver and gold both dropped like 20-25%. Really nasty. Then I've kind of been stuck ever since, and then we've been really trending lower in both silver and gold here in the last month. Right now, my SLV position, yeah, 100 shares, down quite a bit on the shares. We got a short put that is well underwater. I'm at about $8 in the money, so down about $800 on the position, which makes sense. About eight dollars of intrinsic value now on that in the money short put. And then I have a put butterfly, kind of as a downside hedge for this week. Expires three days, so expiration on Thursday this week, because there's no Friday trading. So the end of the week expiration is Thursday. This put butterfly printing a little bit of a profit. Uh, and I'm gonna hold on to it all week and could eke out, I don't know, two, three hundred bucks on this, which would be nice just to help erase some of the losses going on with the rest of the position. So that was silver, gold also down one and a half percent today. Its chart looks very similar to silver, a lot of correlation. That's actually the one ounce uh gold futures, but it's essentially the same as the GC futures. Here's GC down one and a half percent. Bitcoin is down 1.2 percent. Right now, the BTC futures trading at 59,300, kind of at the lower end of their range. The Bitcoin continues to drop, crypto just uh keeps dropping and dropping and dropping. And of course, the crypto-related stocks like a Coinbase, not had a good year in the last year as coin as uh Bitcoin and Ethereum and everything else has been falling. This though is holding up surprisingly well because it did find a bottom, you know, back in February. It's kind of been trading sideways despite the weakness in crypto, but Coinbase is a real company, a company that's not a real company, micro strategy or strategy is what they call it now. This stock looks like death. Having a tiny update a day. But I yeah, I don't love this. I'm not about to go jump in on a bullish trade on this. Uh, yeah, I don't know where the bleeding stops with uh crypto, but right now I'm in a wait and see pattern when it comes to crypto. You know, I used to trade uh you know Bitcoin and a lot of the crypto related stocks like Coinbase was one of my favorite things to trade right now. I'm just kind of leaving all of that stuff alone. Uh copper, the HG futures down one percent. So, you know, copper, gold, silver, all the metals getting beat up a little bit today. For those doing the agricultural futures, corn is down two and a half percent. That's a big move. The corn chart here does not look good either. It's in a clear downtrend and it has been for uh more than a month. Right? Looks ugly. Wheat is also down big, uh, down one percent. I didn't check out soybeans. Let me pull up uh Z here. Soybean futures, yeah, down 1.3% today, although its chart looks a little better than corn and a lot better than wheat. Wheat look uh actually it looks a little better than wheat and a lot better than corn. The corn chart really looks bad. Uh these are not products I typically trade. I uh I don't follow the agricultural space uh like in real life, so yeah, I don't typically trade corn, wheat, and soybeans. I know some people that come from like farming families often, you know, have a little bit more you know, real-world exposure to a lot of these products, so they like to trade them for me. I tend to hang out in tech-related things. What is oil doing today? I have not that's another one I haven't paid attention to. Oil seems like it's a boring product now that you know the Middle East situation. I don't know if it's straightened out, but the market doesn't care anymore. CL trading at $70.33 a barrel, up one dollar today. Basically a nothing move. $70 a barrel. You know, it's about as low as it's been in three months, so yeah, not much going on here in C L. The currencies. Let's see what is moving around. The Aussie dollar down 0.2%, the Japanese yen down 0.1%. Pull up the euro, the 6E futures. 6E is going the other direction, and the Euro is up 1.28%. 6B is up a third of a percent. A little bit of a mixed bag with the currency futures. Moving over to the bonds, the ZB, the 30-year, up one tick, trading at 114.06, still at the upper end of its recent range there in the 30 year Zn, the 10-year note, down two ticks trading at 110.6.5.

SPEAKER_00 9:02

Not much of a move, uh, less than a tenth of a percent there.

SPEAKER_01 9:07

So moving over to some of the big stocks moving around. Let's sort by change percentage to the downside. What's moving lower today? Micron is down 59 points. It was down a hundred points earlier in the session. Intel, which I have a position in, I've got a short put and Intel, a little bit underwater on that short put. Intel currently down three dollars and eighty cents. It was down nearly ten dollars earlier in the session, though, so it's definitely rallied back. Both Micron and Intel have rallied back. ARM when I first looked at it, it was down like $25 today. Now it's only down $3.50. And you're seeing some big moves, some really wide swings. Apple uh down $2 today. It was up this morning when it first started trading. And you still see this sector uh almost rotation between the memory stocks and like your traditional mag 7, mag 10 type stocks. It seems like when Micron and SandDisc and all of that crowd is moving up, your mag 7 type stocks are moving down. And then when the memory stocks are moving down, the mag 7 stocks are moving up. It's almost like they have an inverse correlation these days as people rotate in one and out the other. Uh Oracle down 60 cents, 60 cents, not much of a move there. To the upside, some of the big tech names moving up, Amazon up 4.5%. That's a big move in a big company. I don't know uh what's going on there, but you know, Amazon up $10.65. I don't know if that's on news. Just taking a quick look at some of the news being reported inside the Tasty platform. I don't see anything offhand. It could just be people wanted to buy Amazon today. It's been badly beaten up. The stock chart looks horrible. The last two or three months in Amazon, it's been in a clear downtrend. Having a big upday. Now it's just one upday, but hopefully, you know, if we get three or four green candles in a row, I think that'd be a good sign that maybe the bottom is in there. Tesla is up four and a half percent today as well. Similar kind of chart. Well, really, all the mag 7 been trending lower the last couple months. They're all having a good day today for the most part. Google, same chart, looks bad for the last couple of months. Having a green day today. Google up $12.77. That's a nearly 4% up day. Palantir in this chart looks like death. Um, Palantir uh $3.71. That's a 3.25% up move in that, but again, it's been trending lower for a while. Meta is up today, another chart. Again, all your mag 10 type stocks, they just look bad. SpaceX. Let's talk about the SpaceX trade. So obviously a recent IPO, so you don't have much history with this, but we had the big move up, which you expect when something first IPOs. A lot of times the only thing you can do is buy, buy shares. So it naturally these things get pumped. And then as soon as options are available, as soon as people that were in early start taking profits, it comes back down to Earth and it finds a range to trade in. And right now it looks like it's found a range in this $155 range, $150 to $160 range. Seems like that that's where it wants to trade. Because the last five candles, that's where it's mostly hung out. SpaceX up a dollar and sixty cents today, trading at $154.85. That seems like a fair price. I mean, it IPO'd the uh the first tick when it IPO'd was at $150. So, I mean, that's basically where it IPO'd. Now taking a look at some of my positions, just quickly here. Right now the ES up 55. I've got some MES positions, some put ratio spreads. I've got 4x2 put ratio spread at 63 days, and a 4x2 put ratio spread at 80 days. These are nicely green today, showing some positive PL. Longer data trades, and they're working. These are trades I wouldn't take off for less than 50% max profit. And I'm only at 28% on one and 10% on the other, so I'm gonna hold for 50% profit on those. Typically, I'll ladder into these every couple of weeks. Sometimes I'll have you know several of these positions, four or five different positions on right now. I only have a couple kind of light on positions. I don't want to add another one yet, because this one is at 80 days. Typically, I ladder in at 90 DTE is when I put these trades on. So I'll probably give this trade another week to work, and then I'll put on the next and ladder in, you know, another um tranch of that. Uh GDX, the gold miners are down big today because gold is down. So this is the gold miners uh ETF. Short put here is a 40 delta. It's not good because originally I probably sold that around a 20 delta, so it's gone against me in a big way, losing money on the put. Added a call to defend the put. Call is only a 13 delta. I could actually roll that call down a little bit if I wanted to defend this a little more. For me, though, at this point, I'm comfortable taking shares at $73 a share. And really, I wouldn't take shares at $73 a share because there's $4.63 premium on this strangle. I'd take shares at what uh $68 and change, somewhere around $68.50 is where I'd be uh assigned shares as far as a cost basis. I would be I'd be happy taking shares of the GDX ETF, the gold mining seg. I it's not like it's going to zero. It's not single stock risk. I think long term, you know, it's got some positive drift to it, just like you know, the rest of the market. Gold has a positive drift to it. These mining companies have a positive drift. I don't mind taking shares. I'll run the wheel if I happen to get a sign on the put. So I'm not being extra aggressive here defending that put. Other positions, Intel, the short put I mentioned I had on, and Intel was down huge earlier when Intel was down $10. Now I'm only down $3. Yeah, I'm back basically back to being breakeven on the trade as far as my PL open. You know, I'm basically I'm exactly at zero as far as break-even. I've been in the trade 11 days. Intel is very volatile. It's had some huge up moves, it's had some huge down moves. I've been close to being a 50% winner at one point. I was holding for 50% profit, and then I had that those profits erased and I've been down, you know, 100, 200 bucks on the position. Now I'm back to break-even on the position. Some pretty wild swings. If you're uh trading Intel, be prepared for some pretty crazy PL swings on, especially your naked uh options positions. For me, I don't think right now I'd be comfortable selling a naked call. That's why I don't have a strangle on. Just because I fear the upside more than the downside in this thing right now. But the puts, I mean, I could always take shares on the puts. Don't necessarily want shares of Intel. I mean, it's a fine company. I don't I don't think it's going anywhere. But this is one I probably, if it starts going badly against me, I probably would be pretty aggressive, start selling some calls and and as a defense. But right now, I don't need to do anything. Uh anything else. SCHD down 18 cents. So this is the Schwab dividend ETF. I know a lot of you guys probably hold shares of this in your long-term passive investment accounts. It's a pretty good down day in that. On a day where the ES and the NQ are up, kind of strange that that is uh down kind of big, but it is what it is. A lot of times it does move in the opposite direction of the market, like for diversification reasons. I do like holding these shares. Because a lot of times, yeah, you'll get days where the market's up big and this will be down, or the market's down big and this will be up, which is kind of nice. You know, you don't want things that all move in the same direction, because again, it's a lot of directional risk at that point if you're trading everything that all moves together. Of course, the silver position we've already looked at looks ugly. SpaceX, I do have a put credit spread on in SpaceX. I have the 170, 165 put credit spread. Only has 18 days left. I would like to roll it from the July monthly cycle out to August, but I don't want to pay a massive debit. I was willing to pay 20 cents. That's what I put in an order for. I'm just letting this sit today. If it happens to get triggered, great. I don't want to give up more than that. Right now, looks like the uh counterparty to this trade wants me to give up 45 cents. I'm not paying 45 cents to roll. Because if you you don't want to have to pay a debit to roll a uh a credit trade. Because you're giving up some of that credit, you're actually adding to the potential max loss every time you pay a debit. I don't mind giving up 10 cents, maybe 20 cents, uh, of my 175 credit I received on the trade. But if I give up 40 cents, that's that's too big, you know. That's I'd rather just hold the trade to expiration and see what happens if I gotta do that. Which I'm comfortable doing that. Remember, on a any kind of defined risk spread trade, you should be comfortable potentially taking the max loss should it come to it. So if if I can't roll or uh break even or a small credit or small debit, I'll just wait 18 days and see what happens. And if I take the max loss, it is what it is. Right now I am I'm holding shares of TQQQ. I bought back into this, I bought 150 shares this morning. I had the same position on on Friday uh when we met on the live stream, and I mentioned that I probably would close that position and not hold it over the weekend, and that's exactly what I did. I got out of the position like one minute before market close on Friday, and then I got back into it this morning, right before market open. And this has been a wild ride. I've been up and down quite a bit on this position with the wild swings in the uh the NASDAQ this morning. Right now, it's not that's about where I got in at. And then uh some other things, uh XSP, which is your mini SPX index, lots of butterfly spreads, a put butterfly spread, broken wing put butterfly spread that expires this week on Thursday, because no Friday expiration. This is a winner right now. Um and unless the market crashes in a big way, it's gonna be a winner. So not worried about that position. Um then I've got another broken wing put butterfly for next Friday's expiration, so not this week, but next week's expiration, and then another put broken wing butterfly for the following Friday's expiration, so three weeks out, and then a call butterfly also 18 days, uh, three Fridays from now. All of those are fine, though. They're all these are mildly bullish trades for the put butterflies to extremely bullish trades for the call butterfly. And on a good update, they're all showing positive PL. Yeah, thank you guys for hanging out in the YouTube chat. Yeah. Yeah, if you got questions or comments, feel free. Yeah, Eric. Eric Tampa says, good morning, DT. Good morning, guys. And uh yeah, Avery, correct? Let's see. I thought I bought some call options, and this is from Wade. He says I bought some call options on AMC stock. Wow. Uh at two at the two strike for my first options trade. Yeah. Yeah, I wouldn't have done that. I haven't looked at AMC. I haven't looked at a stock chart of AMC since 2021 or whatever. Like when the uh whole Wall Street vets thing went on. For one thing, is this thing is just not gonna trade. And it's a two-dollar stock.

SPEAKER_00 20:59

Like at this point, like if you go buy the two what what did you do? You you bought calls and you paid 26 uh 26 cents. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 21:14

The thing is, this is such a low-price stock. Anything that gets below, say, ten dollars for me, no longer am I really that interested in trading options on these things. For one thing, it's such a cheap product as far as these calls and the shares. You know, why not just pay a hundred bucks to buy if you're in a cash account, you'd have to pay 200 bucks to buy a hundred shares. If you're in a margin account, you're probably gonna get the shares for a 50% discount. You might get them 100% as far as your buying power effect. Why deal with the long options? Just buy some shares, and then you don't have to worry about expirations, right? You can hold the shares forever if that's what you want to do. I would not want to be holding shares of a $2 stock. This thing is priced at $2 for a remote. Right, this thing's more likely to go bankrupt than ever come back to five dollars a share. Just my opinion, right? And then buying puts, like if you're bearish, well, I would never buy a put on this either because damn, it's trading at $2, it can only go to zero, right? It's already practically there. So yeah, once you get things below ten dollars, yeah, it's tough. Um, if you got a smaller account, you can put on smallish trades and better stocks. You don't have to trade garbage because let's be real, this is garbage.

SPEAKER_00 22:31

Go hell, let's go, let's go find you a trade.

SPEAKER_01 22:37

Um, you know, you want something kind of smallish. Hell, silver. I'm in silver, but it's $52 a share. This particular ETF. Maybe you're bullish in silver. I I'm not saying you necessarily are, but maybe you are. And you want to put on something that doesn't cost much. How about sell this 33 delta put and then buy the put $1 below it? You get a 32 cent credit and you risk $68. And that's if you got a really tiny account, just a few hundred dollars, and you're looking for something to play just for funsies. Yeah, you're not gonna get anywhere with these smallish type trades. If you're in a really small account, what you really need to do is you need to build the account. You need to deposit money into the account. You need to work a job and build the account up so you can take some better trades. And the reason is these smallish type trades, you're just gonna spin your wheels because of fees, you know, uh interest of commissions. Uh if you can make it a $4 widespread, the $49 and the $45, you get a $106 credit. You get $106 credit for putting on that trade. You risk $294, right? Still not a terribly big trade. If you're trading with, I don't know, $5,000 account, you know, this is certainly a trade that's comfortable. So don't go trade the the garbage stocks. I mean, you can turn things into really tiny spread trades and actually trade um some of the commodities like a gold or silver or things like that, or even some some of the bigger tech names, like an Intel is trading at $124 a share. Yeah, you can't go do a naked option. You can't sell this put that I sold, but you could probably sell that put and then buy the put two and a half dollars below, you get a 65 cent credit. Your max loss on the trade is 185.

SPEAKER_00 24:24

You're only risking $185 to make 65. So yeah, I would avoid, you know, if you're brand new to options trading, you want to trade.

SPEAKER_01 24:39

You want to trade what everybody else is trading, basically. I know it's kind of, you know, a lot of people especially uh they want to trade unique things. They want to be the special snowflake that goes and finds that weird ticker that nobody else is trading. But you know what everybody's trading? Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, SpaceX right now, right? Those things have extreme liquidity. Your market ETFs, SPY, QQQ, IWM, some of your commodity ETFs, SLV, GLD. Now, why is everybody trading that stuff? Well, the reason everybody's trading that stuff is because everybody's trading that stuff. That's the reason. It's because there's liquidity there. It's you got good markets, good tight bit aspirates. It's easy to get in and out of trades. And for the most part, you know, these well, you don't really have uh a market index can't go bankrupt. It can't go to zero. Spike, UQQ, IWM, they're never going to zero. Silver and gold and oil and bonds, you know, they're never going to they don't they don't go bankrupt, right? Single stocks have risk, but if you're trading the really big companies that are the market, I mean Nvidia's the market, right? Tesla is the market, Apple's the market. They're not. Could they go bankrupt? Sure, but it would be it would be a crazy kind of event. AMC could file for bankruptcy in about 10 minutes from now. And I wouldn't be surprised. I don't think you would be surprised. Avoid that. Yeah, do you manage the XSP broken winged butterflies 50% or you let them expire? I'd let them run to expiration typically. And the reason is it's an index product, there's no assignment on uh index. But when you trade SPX or XSP or VIX, the VIX is an index as well. Remember, those are indexes, meaning they don't have shares. So all you can trade on them is options, and the options always settle to cash because there's no shares to be assigned. So I can put on those uh butterflies and just let them go. Because however the trade happens, it all gets settled to cash. I'm not going to be assigned a hundred shares of anything. On a stock, you would have to manage at some point. You would have to close the trade at least a few minutes prior to expiration if you're somewhere in the money. If it's way out of the money, like if it's a full loser, and you know, you can let that expire. But if you're somewhere inside the spread toward expiration and it's a stock or an ETF, yeah, then you would have to manage it early unless you want to get uh assigned. Yeah, I guess, but it was more just to learn how options work and experiment. I'm only holding it for a week or so. You're up a hundred from it, you're up a hundred dollars from that from a two-call.

SPEAKER_00 27:27

And AMC, how many contracts did you buy? You you you bought more than one contract. Huh. Yeah, when I saw it was just it was trading for like 20 cents or something.

SPEAKER_01 27:42

I assumed you had a small account. You may have a big account and you might have bought a thousand contracts on that thing. I don't know. Which wouldn't make sense why you would be up uh a hundred bucks, yeah. If you got a whole bunch of contracts on that thing. What's the open interest on the two call? Damn, it's got nearly 70,000 open interest. So there's 70,000 contracts on that call that are open positions. Wow. Is is that you, Wade? Are you are you most of that 79,000 open interest here? And if you look, it's all the open interest is on the call side. Got no open interest really on the puts. Because the puts, again, why would you buy a put? It's a $2 stock and it can only go to zero. Are you really playing for a $2 move? Yeah, you bought $12, okay. That's still I mean, if you made $100 on 12 of those contracts, I mean you got some kind of decent move on that. But I I actually didn't pull up again, I haven't looked at the stock. I don't know where this thing Yeah, I guess if you bought it a couple of days ago, you did get a bit of a move.

SPEAKER_00 28:54

Well, congratulations on your wealth, Wade. Good trade, huh? Alright. Any uh other questions or comments before we get out of here right now?

SPEAKER_01 29:12

The market is still higher. ES trading up up $63.50 today. Pretty good update. Right now, the ES up 0.87%. The Nasdaq is now up 400 points on the day. Man, this thing was up 450. It fell back to unchanged on the day, then rallied back up 400. Just a wild day in the Nasdaq. It's a 1.3% increase in the Nasdaq. The Russell's still down on the day. The Russell's selling off still down 22 now in the Russell. That's a three-quarter of a percent down move in the Russell. For those that want the audio only version of this podcast, typically uh after I do these live on YouTube, about 15 minutes or so, 10-15 minutes, this will be available as an audio-only podcast. Uh, for those that want to listen on a like an Apple or a Spotify, wherever it is, you get your audio podcast. If you listen to this as an audio podcast on those platforms, please give the show a thumbs up or a five star rating or whatever it is that you do on that particular platform to help the show rise a little bit in the algorithms. All right, guys. Well, have fun trading these crazy back and forth markets, and I will be back with you tomorrow. Peace.