Market Outlook Live! (Jun 30, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

And we are live. Welcome to another edition of Market Outlook Live. Hope everyone is doing well today. Right now, the market is mostly green, so probably good for most of you. I know the general market tends to be more bullish than bearish, and for me even, you know, I've been trading for a number of years, but I'm still pretty much a permable. I typically am putting on a lot more bullish trades than bearish trades. So on a day where the market is going up, I'm typically making money. So all right, let's go ahead and jump into the trading platform here. Alright, let's take a look at what the index futures are doing today. Right now, the ES up 23 points. That's a 0.3% up move in the S P 500. The NQ is up 288 points. That's a pretty nice move. That's a 1% up move there in the NQ. Yeah, just my microphone here to where I can actually see my charts here. The RTY, which is the Russell, basically unchanged on the day. The Russell really isn't moving right now. It's actually been slightly lower this morning to slightly up right now, up two points, basically an unchanged day. Kind of a small range in the Russell. And of course, to complete the picture, let's take a look at the VX futures, which is your VIX futures. Right now, the VX N6 contract is trading at $18.26. That is uh down 16 cents on the day. That's about a 0.9% drop in volatility on the day. And for those of you watching on the YouTube chat, give me a yay or a nay on the audio. How's the audio? Yay or nay. I'm assuming you guys can hear me. Sometimes we do have technical difficulties on these live streams, though. They're always a little bit hit or miss. Looks like everything's working fine, though. Taking a look at some of the futures that are moving around, let's start with some of the futures that are moving lower today. It's really crypto continues the uh the move down. So let's start with the Bitcoin futures down 1920. That's a more than 3% down move in the BTC futures, trading at 58,635. That's uh that's about as low as we've been, right? Pretty much hanging out at its recent lows. So Bitcoin and Ethereum, Ethereum's down a similar percentage amount. Yeah, Bitcoin has just continued to just get killed, right? If I pull up a chart of iBit, because it's an ETF, we got a continuous contract we can view. You can see we've been cut more than half, right? iBit here made a high of about $72 a share, currently trading at $33 a share. That is like a 60% cut in Bitcoin, really in well, about eight months. So yeah, it's uh I know a lot of people are holding Bitcoin, and I know it's not good for you, but if you're was long-term investment, right? If it's something that you were planning to hold potentially for years, possibly decades, you know, occasionally you're gonna have these kinds of moves on any asset. You were holding shares of SPY or holding gold or whatever it happens to be, you know, you're gonna have the occasional bear market. I know it's a little weird because Bitcoin, you know, historically, because it's a rather new product, it was just always going up. You really didn't get you know any kind of lengthy bear markets, but they were bound to happen at some point as this thing became more of a typical kind of trading and investment kind of instrument. But right now, I don't know where the bleeding is going to stop. Will Bitcoin continue lower? Possibly. My thinking is though, it's got a little bit more room to fall. This for me, it kind of reminds me of uh when FTX, you know, that hold debacle. I think some of these crypto firms, I think a couple of them, one at least one major firm like a MSTR. I think once something like this goes belly up, you know, then the bottom will you know fall out, right? Then you know, crypto will make a hard crash down, you know, you'll get you know a little bit of a you know a capitulation point where you know maybe we get down to say 40,000 in Bitcoin after an event like that, and then people start buying back in because now you know everybody wants to get long at the bottom. But right now, I don't know when the uh bleeding is going to stop in crypto. Oil is down a little bit today. Uh crude oil down 45 cents. This is the CLQ6 contract, trading at $70.30. Basically, where it's been trading at the last three or four trading sessions. Gold kind of has found a range here. The ZB, the 30-year bond, down 12 ticks, trading at 113.25, down about a third of a percent on the day, but 113.25 at the higher end of the 30-year bonds recent range. Zn, we pull up the 10-year note, down six and a half ticks, trading at 109.31.5, down 0.18% on the day. Some of the futures moving higher today that are not the index futures. Netty gas is up about 4% on the day, trading at 3.305. Silver, which is helping me, is up nearly 3% on the day. And I needed an up moving silver. I'm getting killed on my silver positions. Um, SIU6 here, the SI futures are trading at $60.29. If I move over to my positions, where I've got my options positions, I've got 100 shares plus a badly underwater short put. Sold two calls yesterday to help offset the losses on the short put. I've also got a put butterfly as a downside hedge just for this week. Got a lot of stuff going on, but I'm down quite a bit of money. I've been in this position, especially the shares for a while. So uh, you know, I'm down uh $3,200 or so total on all the positions. Some of those losses are losses I'm never gonna take. Uh the options losses, the 758, I'm never realizing that loss. I'll just take assignment before I close that put for that kind of loss. Uh right now, though, SLV trading at $54.15, which is $1 above the top strike of this put butterfly. So, you know, if I don't make any money on this butterfly, that's fine. This was a downside hedge to protect what was going on with the other positions. But if we get a drop in the next uh two and a half days, you know, this week, it drops another two points. You know, I'd probably make a buck, maybe two bucks on this trade, which will be fine. You know, it'll help offset some of the losses going on everywhere else. And if uh silver all of a sudden turns around and starts screaming higher, I don't mind necessarily losing on the put butterfly because I'm more than gonna make up for it on the shares and the short put, which are again badly underwater. Uh the short put has 64 deltas. The long shares have a hundred deltas, obviously. That's a one lot, hundred shares equals a hundred deltas. So, I mean I've got 164 long deltas just on those two positions, so an up move is gonna make me a lot of money, right? Uh, because I'm so badly underwater. Let's see. What else is moving as far as the futures? Copper. Copper is up 1.84%, trading at 6.277. And if you're a currency trader, most of the currency futures are higher. The Aussie futures, uh, 6A. Trading 0.5% higher today. Pretty good move. GC is up um 0.1% or so, 6B, 0.1%. The euro basically unchanged, not much really moving around with the uh other currency futures. Let's move to the gold futures. GC is up 0.3%. So silver making a pretty good move up. Copper was also making a pretty good move up. Gold, not really, just up very tiny, still toward the bottom end of its recent range, right? Gold and silver, their charts look very similar, had the big run up early in the year, then the big crash that happened, which started a lot of my pain and heartache. And then they've kind of just uh drifted lower the last few months. Where will the bottom be on this? It's kind of like Bitcoin. I don't know. I don't know where the bottom is on gold, silver, bitcoin. I don't know if I necessarily try to call a bottom in any of them right now. Now the silver position I'm already in, so yeah, I've got to play it. But if you're not in it, you know, I wouldn't necessarily, you know, be super bullish on uh like a gold or silver. I don't mind the idea, like if you're looking for a brand new trade and you're just now starting out. Selling puts in gold and silver, I think, makes sense, but I'd probably sell both sides of the trade because you you never know, right? I never try to catch a falling knife. So instead of just selling a put, I'd sell a put and a call. I'd sell strangles in gold and silver if I was putting on a brand new trade today. Anything else in the futures moving around that we need to talk about? I think that's uh that's pretty much it. I today seems like a pretty boring day. For the most part, the market was not moving around early this morning. The ES, the NQ, the RTY were all practically unchanged when I uh started looking at the markets about an hour and a half before market opened this morning. Like they really weren't moving at all. Then all of a sudden, after the stock market opened, the ES and the NQ, they started drifting higher. Now, it's a short week, four-day holiday week, right? We're not trading on Friday. Friday, which is July 3rd, the stock market will be closed in observance of the 4th of July holiday. So, because of that, you know, this is a weird week, holiday week, short trading week, could be low volume uh kind of a trading week, uh lower liquidity. A lot of times on these kinds of weird weeks like this, you do get this kind of slow drift up kind of stair step higher in the market. It's the way a lot of times happens, unless there's some kind of weird news event that kind of pushes us around. I don't think there's any real news uh this week as far as like economic data. I think there's a jobs report on Thursday, Thursday morning that might move the market if it's some kind of crazy number. Um, no real big earnings or anything this week. Um Nike reports after the bell today, I think. That's not that's not a big company. Nobody cares about Nike's uh earnings as far as it's not gonna move the ES or the NQ in any kind of serious way. But yeah, but right now the ES up 32 and a half. You can see when the market opened this morning. If I zoom back out, here's market open. And yeah, we just before that you can see we weren't really doing much, and then all of a sudden we want to move a little bit in the ES. Same thing in the NQ. If I pull up the one-minute chart, except maybe a little bit more exaggerated in the Nasdaq. See the Nasdaq all of a sudden really wanted to take off once the market opened. Just didn't want to do anything in the morning or overnight session, right? And just trading sideways the whole time. So, what stocks are moving us around? Well, let's go ahead and pull up one of my watch lists, and of course, it'll be the tech stocks that are moving us around. Let's start with some of the ones that are moving lower. So these will be the ones kind of uh moving against the market. Coinbase down five and a half percent. Now, Coinbase obviously very crypto related. Bitcoin getting killed. Coinbase is getting killed, right? Coinbase down uh eight dollars and forty cents today, trading at 143.23 as of this second. Oracle is down three bucks today, down two percent Oracle's chart looks bad, really bad. The last uh 15 to 20 candles in Oracle, it's just all red. Well, they're not all red, they're some green candles, but they include some gap downs where you gap lower and then you trade higher from the gap down. So technically the candle's green, but that's really a red candle in my mind. This is a bad chart, just an ugly, ugly looking chart. Netflix is down a dollar thirty-four today. Netflix chart looks horrible, just absolutely horrible. This is another kind of you know, do you want to catch a falling knife? You know, for me, I'm not gonna go load up on short puts in Netflix at the moment, right? Because I don't know where this thing is gonna stop. But right now, Netflix trading at $72.31. Meta is down today, one of the mag 7 stocks that's down. Um, most of the mag 7s up, but meta down eight bucks. That is a one and a half decline, one and a half percent decline in Meta uh Amazon, the other mag 7 stock that's red today, down $2.9%, not much of a move. Qualcomm's down a couple of bucks today, down one percent. These are smallish kind of moves. Now, what is moving higher? Intel, the big mover. Intel up eight dollars and thirty cents. That is more than six percent uh uh increase in intel. That's uh a good good move. That helps me. Got a short put in intel, and yeah, I'm at 35% max profit now. Most of that is because of the last two days. We've had two really good up moves in Intel. And you know, you get direction right on a short put, they work out rather quickly. When you don't get direction right, you know, things take a little time. But right now, um getting direction right on that. Uh AMD up $25 today. AMD very volatile lately, up $25, down $25, up $25. It's kind of been trading in a range, although it has some slight upward drift, but in the last two or three weeks, you've had some good two-sided action in it. IV rank of $103, so volatility, sky high. And again, these are big moves when something's moving 25 points up and down every day. Um that's unusual, especially for a stock as big as AMD, kind of a one of the mag 10 stocks. SpaceX up big again today, up six dollars and thirty-six cents. It was up like eight bucks or so yesterday, and that helped me because when SpaceX first got options, I sold a put credit spread on it. And then SpaceX started going down. This was in the money. I was still in the July cycle, so today would have been 17 DTE. You know, getting late in the option cycle, and I was underwater. Uh, so yesterday I rolled, and I uh it was gonna require a massive debit. I was gonna have to pay 40, 50 cents debit to roll, and that was too much. Yeah, you never want to pay a debit typically to roll. I was willing to pay 10, maybe 20 cents. What I ended up doing is I put in an order for the maximum possible debit I'd want to pay on that roll, put in an order for 20 cents, thinking if SpaceX rallied really hard, maybe it'd get filled. And that's exactly what happened. SpaceX, I think, was down a dollar or two uh early yesterday and then just rallied like seven, eight dollars. And very late in the day, finally, that 20 cent debit for the roll did get filled, which moves the spread from July out to August. Now I have 52 days to wait on this trade to potentially work out for me. And right now, I mean getting getting a good update a day is helping. Now I'm no longer in the money, right? So I was $20 in the money on this spread a couple of days ago, right? And now I'm out of the money. So, of course, brand new stock just IPO'd, a lot of volatility. So, this is another stock that can make some kind of crazy moves. Right now, though, nothing to do on that. Some of the other big tech stocks moving around. ARM is up eight dollars and change, uh, about a two and a half percent up move in ARM. Apple having a good day. Apple's up five dollars on the day. That's a one and three-quarters percent upday in Apple. Nvidia is up three dollars and eighteen cents. That's a one point six percent increase in NVIDIA. Broadcom is up two dollars, half a percent up on the day. And Tesla, which was actually red, I believe, earlier in the day. I want to say pre-market, this thing was down about five dollars. Now it's up two dollars. So big reversal there in Tesla today. Google's up a dollar. Yeah, a lot of these stocks. And it's uh has the feel this market wants to go higher, right? This market just wants to continue climbing higher right now. Especially when you, you know, are like me, you know, I I pay attention to what's going on in the overnight section. Then I always get up. I I'm up three hours before the market opens every morning. Typically, you know, I get up and check out what's going on pre-market and some of this stuff. You know, a lot of these uh mega cap tech stocks were mostly unchanged to a little lower, and now most of them are higher. So it does give you the sense that overall this market today does want to go higher, which is good. I've got shares of TQQQ. I bought a hundred shares, uh, so not a terribly big position. A lot of times I'll buy 150 shares, sometimes 200 shares. But this market, uh especially early in the day yesterday, and I thought, yeah, I wasn't sure where this market wanted to go this week. Clearly wants to go higher. I guess I should have bought a bigger share position, but the 100 share position working out today. TQQQ up $2.70, so obviously I'm up $270 and 100 shares. So that's working. Uh my put ratios in MES are working out beautifully. Got a 4x2 put ratio spread at 62 days. I got a 4x2 put ratio spread at 79 days. Uh the 62 days spread is almost at 50% max profit, 43%. So getting really close to me just taking that off for a win and then putting on the next. Uh the one at 79 days is only at a 25% max profit, but I've only been in the trade 12 days. And these are standard core uh strategies for me. I'm always putting on these put ratio spreads at 90 DTE in MES. So I put this on at uh 91 DTE, right? In 12 days, I'm already at 25% max profit. You know, when you get direction right on these, and uh also volatility contracts in the market, these do work out rather quickly, even though you think, oh, 90 days, that's a long trade. Well, most of the time I'm in and out of these things in three weeks, maybe four weeks. It's not like I'm holding these things, uh, these uh trades for three months. It's rare that I'm really holding this thing uh past a month. Oh any other positions? Uh GDX, I rolled this today. This strangle has been a mess. Uh it really started live as a short put that's gone badly against me. Sold some calls against it. Well, sold one call right now. I've got one contract. I could add contracts to this and make the position bigger if the extra credits I would receive from selling more puts and more calls helps me finance maybe a roll lower. Right now, though, I'm just gonna stick with one contract, but I may add to the position if I need to later. Right now, though, I rolled this uh in the Discord group, my members only Discord, so that's for uh members of the DT Options Patreon. I hold a live voice chat every trading day. I get together with my uh patrons on Discord on a live voice call, share my screen. Everybody gets to see all the trades I make. I get to you know see what kind of trades they're making. We get to chat about the markets and trading strategies, and we have some really interesting discussions in that group. So check out the DT Options Patreon if you're interested in becoming a member of that group. But yeah, this morning I made that role to help protect that position. Other than that, I didn't really have much uh to do. The silver position, I uh added calls yesterday in defense of this, and I'm getting an update a day, which is what I needed, so nothing to do there. I made the SpaceX roll yesterday, and I'm getting an up move, which is what I needed. Everything's working today. Uh I'm getting exactly what I need out of most of these trades. XSP. Lots of uh but broken wing butterflies, which are slightly bullish trades, uh, and then a call butterfly, which is definitely a bullish, uh, it's a really bullish trade, and on an upday, they're all working, right? They're all showing positive PLs. So pretty s uh uh easy day for me. Didn't have a lot of uh uh headaches with the portfolio today. Uh for you guys and the YouTube chat, if you got questions or comments or anything, feel free to ask away. Got a few more minutes here on stream. Uh yeah, audio is good. Appreciate that speckle. Yeah, all good. Yeah, do you trade the prediction markets? Tasty's web platform recently introduced that feature, has been curious about it for a while. I I do not, I I know nothing about how prediction markets work. Um yeah, I don't know. It's not something I've I've ever been interested in, to be honest. Uh I'm not sure if it ev I I know some people do trade that stuff. It doesn't seem all that appealing to me. I'll be honest. Uh maybe maybe it's just because I'm a I'm a boomer and an old fuddy duddy. Uh but you know, those kinds of prediction markets like uh even sports betting, you know, really doesn't interest me all that much because I'm just not sure there's any uh real Edge to trying to play that kind of stuff. But again, it's not something I've ever really looked at because I I mean I'm I'm trading other things. But yeah, Tasty recently added uh prediction markets as far as over here in my tabs. If I click on predict, this wasn't here, you know, a few days ago. Now all of a sudden it's here. Now I can bet on well, I mean I can bet market-related stuff, like you know, where do I think the 10-year uh treasury yield is going, or the Bank of England rate decision when when their uh central bank decides on uh rate decisions, or the Bank of Japan rate decision or whatever, you know. You know, these are interesting, market-related. Like, could I uh bet on some macro economic kind of events? Could be interesting. I really am not a macro kind of guy, though, so I wouldn't I wouldn't feel comfortable playing any of this stuff. I mean, I I consume a little bit of financial media, you know, in passing, but I I don't I don't live and breathe, you know, what's going on with you know the central banks in Japan or Australia or Canada or whatever, and want to go bet on rate decisions that those nations make. Uh yeah, can you go over how your put broken uh butterfly strategy works for XSP? Sure, I absolutely can do that. Just for you, uh Kana in the chat. So the way this works, go to XSP. I put this on every Friday at 21 DTE. So it's a three-week trade. XSP does not have shares, it's an index. Uh so SPX, SSP, um, VIX, the VIX, those are indexes. They don't have shares, so you don't have to ever worry about getting assigned on an option. So, because of that, that's why I choose this product. It's the same size as SPY, but SPY, if I let it expire and an option was in the money, I'd get assigned shares of SPY. I don't want shares. So I do the index XSP. I go 21 days. So on a Friday, I do the 21-day cycle for three Fridays from now, and then I go down to the 25 delta put and I buy that put. And then I go seven points below and sell that put twice. So it's a $7 widespread here, and then below this I go 14 points twice as wide below. So 725 minus 14, that would be 711, and I buy that put. Let's collapse a sidebar. Let me go into the curve and analysis here. I've got a million XSP positions. Let me turn all of this off. It is interesting what the total graph looked like, but this is what you're interested in. That is the example, put broken wing butterfly. You break the wing, so you make $7 wide here on the debit spread, $14 wide on the credit spread, twice as big on the credit spread. And the reason is to force this trade to be overall a credit trade. And if you receive any credit at all, that means you cannot lose to the upside on this put broken wing butterfly, because the market tends to have a positive drift. It's going to go higher most of the time. And you want to make sure you can you don't lose any money on that event. But here's the thing the market goes lower, you have the potential to make upwards of, in this example trade, $727 of profit if you pin the two short strikes exactly at expiration. So this really makes money in a lower market, a market that's stair-stepping down. Like if we were in a kind of a lengthy bear market where the market was kind of grinding lower all the time, these would print a little money. Now you would occasionally take the max loss because the max loss is below, and the max loss is substantial, $673. Right? But you're not going to take a max loss on this kind of trade very often. Again, you that typically would happen in a bear market, but in the bear market, you're also getting a lot in this uh a lot of trades that finish inside this profit area, this bear profit area. So it actually works out great. I hope that answered the question on the put broken wing butterfly. Because it's if you do this on an index product, you don't have to worry about management. Just let it go.

SPEAKER_01 26:24

Just let it go. Let's see.

SPEAKER_00 26:29

DT, uh, your feed keeps getting cut out by ads. Is there any way to stop them from popping up? I'm missing some of your inspiring uh discussion. Um yeah, I probably could go in and disable the uh the ads on the live stream. I'd rather not do that because when they play back uh as far as recorded content, I I'd have to go back and able the ads. Obviously, no, I'd like to make uh a few pennies on these streams. If you don't like the ads though, get a browser that does not show ads. Pro tip uh the brave browser has ad block out of the box. You'll never see a YouTube ad when you use that browser. If you're on Chrome, Google Chrome, or any kind of Chromium-based browser like a Microsoft Edge or whatever you're using, install an ad block. Uh uBlock origin is typically the one everybody installs. So that is just something that it's easy. Go install that, you'll never see another ad. You'll never see print ads, multimedia ads, any of that. And of course, yeah, uh you're right. Uh fake in the chat, uh fakeologist, Tim, one of our members, he mentions, yeah, yeah, I'm not gonna get paid when you guys block the ads. But you can, if if you want to block all the ads, but also still make sure that your favorite content creators all get paid for their ad revenue they would have got had we served you ads. Go pay for YouTube Premium. It's a few bucks a month. And then every time you go and watch videos from me, you're all all your content creators, you won't see ads, but that premium that uh YouTube premium membership, you know, we'll we'll get a little bit of that, so we still get compensated a little bit. Uh yeah, well, I mean you want to support your favorite content creators because nobody, I mean, that's a lot of work to make videos. I've been making video content on a regular basis for nearly 10 years now. I've probably recorded nearly 2,500 videos over the years on my channels and done hundreds of live streams, and you know, it's a lot of work. You know, typically it's not just the recording of the videos because you got to do prep work sometimes, something, and depending on the topic, it can be a lot of prep work. Video editing, I edit all my videos, and the editing process takes as long as recording the video. And then you gotta create thumbnails. I create all my thumbnails. Like I I take care of all of that creative process, it is a lot of work. So, yeah, definitely, yeah, definitely support your favorite content creators because I promise you, they're overworked and underpaid. Yep. Alright, yeah, anything else? Last chance for questions, comments. Yeah, Death says, Cheers, DT. Thanks for the content, dude. Appreciate your time. Long time tasty trader came across you recently. Yeah, appreciate that. Yeah. All right. Well, I'm glad we got to share a little bit about the put broken wing butterfly there. The markets today are accommodating me as a primarily bullish trader right now. The ES up 40 points. That's the highest it's been that I've seen today, up half a percent. NASDAQ up 359. That's a 1.2% increase. Russell up eight points now. So the Russell is starting to turn green on the day, up a quarter of a percent. All right, guys. Yeah, Donald in the chat. Uh yeah, DT. I don't mind paying you. Thank you for your effort. I want to see your content. Appreciate that, Donald. Appreciate that. Um, all right, guys. Well, I'm gonna go ahead and jump off. I'll be back with you guys tomorrow morning. One content note, a reminder, remember, it's a holiday on Friday, the July 3rd. Uh it's a stock market holiday, Friday, July 3rd, will be closed in observance of the July 4th holiday. So no trading, stock exchanges will be closed. I won't do a live stream that day either, because why would we be here? There's going to be no trading. So just a four day week this week, but I will be back with you guys tomorrow on Wednesday and on Thursday, and then we'll have the three day holiday, and then you know, next Monday we'll get back, hopefully, to normal weeks that are not interrupted so often by these holidays. All right, guys. Peace.