Market Outlook Live! (Jul 6, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:04

And we are live. Welcome to another edition of Market Outlook Live. I hope everyone is having a lovely Monday morning. So the start of another week, obviously, yes uh not yesterday, last week was a holiday week, only uh a four-day trading week because of the Friday, July 3rd uh closing of the stock market due to the observance of the July 4th holiday. So you know now we get back to normal trading. No more holiday weeks for a while. We had a lot of holiday weeks, uh like back to back to back to back, right? Uh well, Easter, Good Friday, and you know, you had uh Memorial Day and uh yeah, Juneteenth, yeah, July 4th, and now we shouldn't have a market holiday until September, right? So we've got you know a few weeks now of just normal five-day trading weeks, which is what I prefer. I hate all of these stock market holidays. We got too many damn holidays. I'm just gonna go ahead and say it. I know some people love holidays as a trader. Uh my life is a little dimmer when the stock market is closed. So I actually prefer having the opportunity to trade. So, all right, let's jump into the charts here and see as what is going on in the market today. So, right now, all of the indices are green. Uh, the Dow is actually pretty much unchanged. The Dow's been red most of the morning, now up nine points, which is a basically an unchanged move. It's not any serious move there in the Dow, but the ES is up 54 points. That is about a three-quarter of a percent up move in the ES. That's a nice move. The NASDAQ, which of course is very tech heavy, and tech is having a good day. The Nasdaq is up 1.6% on the day. Right now, the NQ is up 480 points. That's a good move. And then the RTY, the Russell futures here, the Russell 2000, is up 24 points. That's a pretty decent size move in the Russell, up about three-quarters of a percent, very similar to what the ES was up. So for me, you know, this is one of those deals where a lot of times, you know, in my experience on these uh weeks where you had short trading because of a holiday, that four-day week we had last week, you know, the futures market did trade Thursday night into Friday morning, even though Friday the stock market was going to be closed. The futures traded overnight and then half of the morning the next morning, and they did push the uh indexes up a little bit last week on that you know low volatility half trading day. And I thought because of that, maybe we'd get a pullback today, but we didn't. I was actually kind of surprised at the strength of this market today. So this is a market that when I was uh you know taking a look at my um charts and my watch list and everything this morning, it had a this market had a feel like it really wanted to go up. So, and because it had that feel, I did actually put on a trade as far as just trying to you know make a little something. I put on uh 100 shares of TQQQ, the triple levered NASDAQ ETF, 100 shares, um, you know, which is you know um for me a lot of times I'll put on somewhere 100, 150 shares, sometimes 200 shares, depending on how big of a position I want to put on. I mean, it was just nibbling a little bit with 100 shares. I could make this bigger if I wanted to, but that's what I've got on right now, and I've got it bracketed because obviously I'm doing the show here. If something happens and I'm not paying attention, I do have a stop loss order here uh at my cost basis. If I, you know, if something turns around in a drastic way here. But I've got that going on because again, I just thought this market had the look like it really just wanted to go up today. So I was gonna play it that way. The VX futures, the VIX futures trading at 1749, so down 41 cents on the day, a VIX of around 17.50. It's telling you that this market is not really all that concerned right now, right? All signs point to go in a market where the indexes just continue to stair step up and volatility continues to drop every day. Uh, it's you this is not a market that you want to start shorting, right? You never short these kinds of markets. Uh, futures that are moving lower today, really not much. There's very few futures products that are actually lower on the day, unless you're trading the currencies. The Japanese yen down about 0.8% on the day, had a big up day on uh Thursday or Friday last week, and uh had a nice little pop, and now it's just basically reversing that whole move today. Uh, if you're trading the Canadian dollar, uh 6C futures down 0.3%. ZB, the 30-year bond, is down six ticks. Uh yeah, down six ticks, trading at 112.08, uh, down about 0.17% on the day. So the bonds, the last three trading sessions have been kind of weak because we were trading in the 114 handle. Now we're trading in the 112 handle. CL is down four cents on the day, basically unchanged on crude oil. But the Middle East situation seems to have resolved itself, and nobody is all that concerned about oil anymore. You can see for the last two months, oil has just been stair stepping lower, and I expect that trend to continue. Futures moving higher, pretty much everything else is higher. So most of the futures products are up today. Ethereum is up 3.3 percent, and Ethereum needed an upday. Crypto has been badly beaten up. The BTC futures, Bitcoin, up 1.3% on the day. Right now, the BTC futures trading that 62,465, and that's the highest they've traded in about a week and a half or so. Some of the other futures moving lower or higher today, excuse me. Uh silver is up 2%, which helps me out. You guys know my silver position, uh, which is a bit of a mess here. 100 shares, one deep in the money short put, a couple of short calls as well to hedge what was going on, the nastiness in that short put trade. Um, but today I needed an up move, right? I need some serious up movement in silver, and I'm getting it. So, right now, we take a look at the chart here in SLV, the silver ETF. You can see the last eight candles. I mean, well, the last seven candles after the bottom, but this kind of mini crash that we had in gold and silver, gold's chart looks very similar where they were looked like they were in full-blown crash mode there for a couple of days, and then found a bottom, and they have been drifting higher, which is good for me. And typically long silver and gold. Uh gold right now, the GC futures up 31 points. That's a three-quarters of a percent up move in GC, trading at 41.56. Uh, copper was also higher this morning when I got up. Let's see if it's continued that trend. Yeah, still up. Copper is trading at 6.2210, up 0.8% on the day. And some of the uh currencies, uh, we mentioned some that were lower, such as the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar. We do have some currencies that are higher. 6A, the Aussie dollar, up 0.3% on the day. The British pound is up 0.1% on the day. And that is basically what's going on in the futures. For those playing the agricultural products, I typically don't play the ag futures, but soybeans up 3.6% today. Wow, look at this candle. That is a wild move there. ZC, the corn futures, also up 3.5%. And to round this out, ZW, the wheat futures, up 1.9%. A much smaller move there in wheat compared to what is going on in soybeans and corn. So yeah, the aggs are really moving. Yeah, good morning in the chat. Eric in the chat says, Morning DT. Yeah, for those hanging out in the chat, if you got questions or comments or anything you'd like to discuss, uh please feel free to leave all of that in the chat and I will try to get to your questions and comments. Let's take a look at what some of the big tech stocks are doing because tech obviously is helping lead the way higher today. So some of the stocks that are moving around, Apple is up four dollars today. That's a 1.3% up move in Apple. And you see, Apple, the last six trading sessions, has been very strong. AMD is up nearly 50 points today, up 48 on the day. That's a 9.3% up move in AMD trading, just a hair off its all-time highs. Amazon up $1. Not much of a move in Amazon. ARM is up $14. That's a 4.5% move in ARM. Although ARM, the chart, if you're looking at the video version of this podcast, ARM the last two weeks has been trending lower. AVGO is up 14.5 points. That's a 4% up move. Uh AVGO, I would say, in the last month, has kind of been trading sideways. Kind of looks like it's kind of range bound. Coinbase is up just one point today, not much of a move. Even though crypto was strong, Ethereum and Bitcoin, both the uh futures products were up big. Coinbase, you would think, would make a bigger move up today, just in sympathy with what's going on with crypto, but it did not. Google is up $2.60 today, that's a third of a percent. Intel up $4.88. That's a big move, up four percent. And I've got my short put still in Intel. This thing, wild PL swings. I mean, I'm up $123 PL on the day just from the crazy up move today, but I was down a hundred and something dollars on the big move last week, right on one of the days left. Like wild PL swings on the short put. The volatility in Intel is through the roof. We've got a 98 IV rank. We've got a 100%, I think, IVX in this. It's just really, really volatile. So if you're gonna go and be like me and be bullish and sell a putnum in this thing, expect some pretty crazy movements. Some other tech stocks that are making sizable moves. MU, actually, this is not much of a move in MU, kind of a muted kind of move. Up 23 points, trading just a hair under a thousand, nine hundred and ninety-eight, nine hundred and ninety-nine points uh on MU up 2.4% on the day. MU, if you look at the last week, looks like it has also been trending lower. I suspect some of that is profit taking and people rotating out of this to play some of the other tech names. Trading at 195.78. NVIDIA is one that in the last uh two to three months has been drifting lower. Which, you know, NVIDIA is one when I see a chart like this, I'm tempted to get long. Like I'm tempted to go, you know, sell some put spreads or you know, do something in it to to get some uh some positive deltas, maybe even buy a call debit spread, maybe something at the money. Um Oracle up 1.7 uh well uh a buck eighty today, but not much of a move. This is a nasty chart. The Oracle chart just looks horrible. This is not one I would go and put on a bullish trade today. I would leave Oracle alone right now until it uh until that chart looks a lot better. Palantir up two dollars and seventy cents today. That's a 2.1% move in Palantir. Palantir trading at 132.12. Palantir looks like it might have hit a bottom about a week ago. The last five candles, six candles, all been green candles. There is one red candle there, but it was a gap up, so really six uh up days in a row. I would say that uh yeah, Palantir, I think that the down move might be over, and now might be the time to nibble on Palantir with some short puts. If I wanted to go put on a short put kind of trade in Palantir, uh has earnings August 3rd, but that's still almost a month away. Plenty of time for a short put trade to work out if you get direction right, especially. If I went and sold a 17 delta put, that's the 110 strike in the August monthly cycle, I get a 305 credit on a buying power reduction of $1,100. Great risk reward there, you know, risking $1,100 essentially to make $3. I like that. Pop on the trade 78% P50 number, 87%. For me, all signs point to go on that trade if you're bullish in Palantir. Obviously, if you're not bullish, if you got some other directional assumption, that short put trade might not be the best trade for you. Although if you're neutral on Palantir, still that out-of-the-money short put trade might be an okay trade for you just because you know a short put isn't all that directional. I don't have to get direction right on a short put. Yeah, I would like Palantir to go up, but because I'm so far out of the money, uh, the 110 strike put, Palantir is trading at 132. As long as Palantir doesn't drop more than 22 points over the next 46 days, I still win on the put. So I mean it's short put is to me more of a neutral to bullish trade rather than just a balls out uh bullish trade. Like a long call is definitely a bullish trade. You have no choice but to get a move and get a move in a hurry to win a short put, you've got some room to be wrong. And that's the way I like to trade. Most of my options trades, I are trades I don't have to be right on direction. Uh because that's the only way to trade. If you're putting on primarily trades where you have to be right on direction, uh you're going to struggle to make money because unless you have a crystal ball, which I don't, you're gonna have trouble picking directions consistently, repeatedly. You're just not gonna be able to do it. Qualcomm up $9.47. That's a 5% up move in Qualcomm, but Qualcomm has also been uh trending lower over the last three weeks or so. But having a nice updated day, but I need to see a few more green candles in Qualcomm before I would you know start selling puts or put spreads in this thing. SpaceX down 72 cents right now. It was up two or three bucks this morning when I first got up. Um, but this is not much of a move, right? It looks like you know, after the first you know, six trading sessions or so, SpaceX, it has found a range. It wants to trade somewhere around $150 to $165. I guess got a 15-point range that it wants to be in. Right now I do have a trade on in SpaceX. I have my put credit spread that I sold the first day that options were available. I sold the 170 and 165 put credit spread. That was not a good trade because uh we're trading below my spread now. I'm in the money, just a little bit in the money. But I was able to roll originally this was a uh July cycle trade. I went ahead and rolled out to August to give myself an additional month of time on the trade. So now I'm in a 46 DTE trade. So I've got 46 days to let this play out. And if SpaceX has any kind of up movement at all, you know, over the next 46 days, I'll be fine on the trade. And if it doesn't, well, it was a defined risk trade. I'll take the max loss, and hey, that is the risk with defined risk trades. Tesla's up pretty good today, up 16 points. That is a 4% up move in Tesla. Yeah, you can see Tesla's chart. Also kind of rangy, kind of choppy, up and down. A stock that looks like it doesn't really know what it wants to do right now. Taking a quick look at some of my positions that we haven't already taken a look at. Uh MES, I've got some put ratio spreads on. I also sold a call ratio spread uh this morning in my members-only Discord new trade I put on in the chat with those guys. I did a 4x2 call ratio spread, just your standard uh call front ratio. So the opposite of what I do with the puts, right? The put front ratio. Um, this is a bearish trade, a call ratio. Well, really, it's it's more of a neutral to it's almost a bullish trade, really. A call ratio. It's almost it's basically like a call butterfly, except you didn't bother paying the extra money to buy that extra long wing. Ideally, you know, in a market that drifts higher, this trade actually has the chance to make a little bit of money. So if a market just screams higher, though, I'm not gonna like this trade at all because there's two naked short calls that are part of this trade that are not going to like a crazy up move in the market. But yeah, it is what it is. Overall, I I'm still not gonna hate this trade, even if I lose a lot of money on the short calls, because it means the put ratios are gonna do well. Plus, if I'm you know long, TQQQ, for example, you know, some of my other bullish positions are gonna do well. So this is kind of a a little bit of a small bearish kind of edge, but just a tiny little bearish edge. But all these ratios doing fine. The put ratios, I mean, this one here put on 18 days ago, still has 73 days, but I'm already at 40% max profit. Well, not max max profit, uh 40% of the credit received on the trade. I'll take it off if I get to 50%. And heck, I can be at 50% tomorrow, right? Certainly this week, if we get some some up movement this week, you know, that trade will probably be a winner and come off. And then I put on a new put ratio last week. I think on Thursday last week we put on a new one. It's already at a 12% profit. Yeah, so those keep working. Another new trade I put on this morning with my Discord members. We uh put on an Iron Cod door and RTY, the Russell Futures. So we sold a essentially a 10 delta strangle, so around 10 deltas short put, short call, and then we went 50 point wide for the wings. Now, 50 point wide wings, uh RTY, the Russell futures, the multiplier is 50, not 100. So in stock and ETF options, you multiply everything by 100. 100 is always the multiplier in options, but with futures products, each futures has its own unique multiplier, and it's not a hundred on most things. RTY, the multiplier is 50. So this 50 point wide uh spread on the iron condor is really more like a 25 point wide spread if you were doing this like in a stock or ETF equivalent. So it's a $2,500 spread or $2,500 wide uh iron condor here. I got a credit of what's the trade price? $7 times $50. I got a $350 credit. And if the spread was $2,500, if I got a $350 credit, max loss is $2150. That's the way this iron condor is laid out. If I collapse all this and go into the curve and analysis, we can actually verify that that is all correct. What I just mentioned on those prices. Let's turn on the expiration PL. And there we go. There is the iron condor. So the Russell is trading here. If we trade in a range over the next 32 days, I'll win $350 potentially. Now that's the max, right? The credit I received on the trade is the max on the uh iron condor, $350. And if it finishes outside this very wide iron condor, if it finishes above either of the long strikes, I suffer potentially the max loss of $2,150, $2150. Now the pop on this trade was probably, I guess, north of 80% the P50 number, it's probably 90% or better. Pretty high probability trade. But you know, it's a bigger product, the RTY futures, the Russell, and that was as small as I could make that particular Iron Condor with the strike selection that I wanted. So if you're trading with a very small uh account and you can't put on a trade that's a you know like a $2,500 uh kind of trade, then you could always go to the ETF version of the Russell, IWM, which is trading at $290. Basically, it's uh one-tenth the size of RTY, but remember IWM, the multiplier on a stock ETF is a hundred. RTY's multiplier is only 50. So really notional RTY is five times the size of IWM. So I know the math is confusing sometimes because the multipliers and the futures are a little confusing, but if you trade the same products all the time, like I know ES and RTY, the multiplier is 50. I know MES, the multiplier is five, just because I trade those all the time. MCL, the micro crudal, is another one I trade uh often enough. I know the multiplier is 100 and now, which makes the math easy because MCL is just like a stock or ETF every Things times 100. Other things that's been a problem, GDX, the gold miners here, this ETF. I rolled it six times. Today, though, it's doing fine. I've got two puts versus two calls, two 21 delta puts versus two 14 delta calls. Got seven long deltas on uh the trade uh per contract here. Now, right now everything looks good. Uh I'm leaning a little long, and GDX really isn't doing much today, unchanged on the day, which is really helping both the puts and the calls. I'm just trying to chip away at some of this loss. And if I can make this loss quite a bit smaller or even get back to break-even, then eventually chances are that'll be about the time that it'll be time to roll from August to September anyway, and then at that point I'll put this back out to whatever trade I want to be in, because I'm not necessarily wanting to be in this trade. This is a trade I ended up in as a defense. This actually started life as a short put, right? And ended up you know with puts and calls. Uh other things, uh SCHD down 27 cents today. That is a pretty big move in that particular ETF. That's the Schwab dividend ETF. And on a day where the market for the most part is higher, the ES, yeah, and the NQ, RTY, all still strong. Yeah, SCHD, which is a basket of about 100 uh dividend-paying stocks. Yeah, strange that that is down as much as it is. Uh, other than that, uh, got some long calls and XLF, not my standard kind of trade, but uh a couple of weeks ago I mentioned that the financial sector really hadn't participated at all in the uh market rally, the big market rally as far as with tech and energy and you know a lot of other sectors. I thought this was due for a move, so I bought some calls just because they were cheap. Not a lot of volatility in the financials. Um, it's not worth selling puts in it to get long. So I was like, well, I'll just buy the at the money calls at 90 DTE. And now I've been in the trade 19 days, got 74 days left. It's been going my direction. I'm already up 102, right? I'm up a buck. Now I paid 190 per call here, so $190 times two. I've got two calls. So I paid $380. If I make 50%, if I get to $190, that's the profit, you know, about two bucks. I'll probably just take profit and move on. I'll let that keep working since it's going my way. Then I've got a ton of various butterfly spreads in XSP, the mini SPX index. So put butterfly that expires at the end of this week, unless something unless the market crashes, I can't lose on this. And actually in a big down move, but nothing like serious, you know. I I've if the market went down 300 points, I'd stand to make a lot of money, actually. So I actually don't mind a pretty serious down move in the market on some of these put butterflies. I doubt we're gonna get that. And if we don't get that, well, I'm pretty much at the uh credit received on the trade, you know, 42 cents uh be the profit on that, and that'll be fine. But if we get a down move, which is really what these are for, is kind of hedges to the downside. But this put butterfly, broken wing put butterfly comes off on Friday. Then next Friday at 11 DTE, I've got another put broken wing butterfly and a call butterfly as well, call broken wing butterfly. Those are for next Friday. And the call broken wing butterfly is already in the money and it's already showing a nice profitable PL. I mean, I'm up $122 on that, only paid $150 for the butterfly. This is one I could argue that I could, you know, take that off for a profit, but if I paid $150 for this butterfly and I've got uh $8 uh wing on that, uh max profit $650. So I mean there's more profit potential on this. I think I do want to hold it a little while longer to see if I can't get a little bit higher PL before I shut it down and move on. Then out at 18 DTE, another put broken wing butterfly and call broken wing butterfly. Um they've got too much time and they haven't they've only been on four days, they haven't done much as far as PL just yet. But yeah, these have been great all year. Alright. You guys in the chat, if you got questions or comments, go ahead and get them in. Right now, this market, yeah, all signs point to go. As tech obviously is leading us higher here, the tech sector XLK, if I pull up the tech sector ETF, up 2.5% on the day. Of course, tech is the biggest sector of the market, especially with the NQ, right? Very tech heavy, the NASDAQ. Um that explains the story right there. We take a look at the semiconductors, SMH, up 3.3% on the day. Although the semis look like they've been kind of stuck in a range, trading sideways, maybe even trending a little lower, but just a hair. I don't think uh I would be all that worried right now if I was long semiconductors, you know, the market. I know some people you you get a lot of fear-mongering as far as hey, is the the the bubble about to burst as far as uh the AI names and the chip names. I I don't see any sign of that. I think some of that is just people being uh sensational for clicks and views, especially financial media. Um nothing people say in the financial media space is anything you really should pay attention to. Most of it is all just uh BS, and again, most of it is just to generate clicks and views. The market will tell you when the uh when the rally is over. Um right now, the market again, all you gotta do is clue in on what the indexes are doing and what volatility is doing. Right now, with VX trading at $17.49. This is not a market that is worried. Uh, outlook on memory. Right now, I I think you gotta be long, right? If if you're gonna pick a direction, um pull up DRAM here. DRAM is the uh round hill memory ETF. You can see it's had a big run up now. Sold off the last week, maybe week and a half here. Now, some people might get worried that you know this is a sign of you know everybody's about to dump all the memory stocks. I don't think so. The biggest components of this, I mean, Micron is probably the biggest player in that space, and Micron, as far as I know, they they uh they're turning profits and they're selling everything they make. Matter of fact, they already have orders to sell everything they'll possibly make for the next like two or three years, like something insane. Like Micron is not going away as far as a company and a profitable company. Now, how that affects you know the stock, you know, people buying and selling, who knows? But I can't imagine that Micron is about to go back to a $50 stock. Like, that's not happening. Uh so get that out of your head. Uh, but you know, are we in for some chop, right? Are we in for some two-sided action? Maybe, because we haven't had a lot of it uh over the last uh year, year and a half year, it's just kind of been straight up and to the right. But for me, if I'm playing this, I have to be bullish. And if you're playing this, the only trade that makes sense. I'm just gonna go ahead and tell you as far as an options trader or put credit spread, it's about the only thing that makes sense. And there are reasons for this. For one, you get a great price on these put spreads. I just went to the 30 Delta and I did a $10 wide spread and I got a $410 credit versus a max loss of $5.90. That is stupid good pricing. Like that is insanely good. I don't care if you're bearish on my front. If somebody's going to sell you that put credit spread for that credit, you need to take it. Because I don't have a crystal ball, and neither do you do you. You don't know where this thing is going. But if these put spreads are going to trade this expensive, this rich, you got to sell them. There's no reason not to. The call spreads, I can tell you, since the put spreads have such good pricing, the call spreads absolutely suck. The same thing on the call side, 191 credit versus an 809 max loss. Yeah, you may be bearish, and so you're thinking, well, I gotta go do a call spread. You don't know where it's going. Don't don't sell these cheap, trashy call spreads. Sell some put spreads. Right. A lot of times the trade that I want to do has less to do with assumption and more. What are the options actually priced as? Right? And right now, the pricing of options in Micron tell you you need to be bullish. Uh even if you're not bullish in a directional assumption, the put spreads are rich, so sell them. The call spreads are cheap, so buy them. Both of those are bullish trades. So the bearish trades just don't make any sense right now. So you gotta be bullish. If you're not bullish, if you're like, man, I but I I can't go sell a put credit spread or buy a call debit spread on my cron because I think it's about to crash. Well, if you think that, then just don't trade it. Because I I don't think it's worth the puts are too expensive to buy, and the calls are too cheap to sell. So hope that answered your question. I didn't really give you an outlook necessarily, but if I'm trading it, yeah, put credit spread, I think, is is the trade to do there. My outlook is, you know, long term, I think Micron's got a lot more room to run to the upside. For shorter term trading, I mean, there's a lot of randomness and short-term trades. Like if you're somebody that puts on trades that expire this week, hell, I don't know where it's going in a week's time. Neither do you. I mean, it's just all kind of guesswork. But if you tell me well, you know, two months out, where do I think Micron's gonna be? I think it's gonna be, you know, 1300, 1400, probably. That's what I I would assume, that's how I would trade it for that assumption. Doesn't necessarily mean I'll be right, I don't know anything. Alright, anything else? Last chance, questions, comments, anything before we jump off the stream here, market continues, its upward trend. ES now up 58 on the day, the Nasdaq up 507 on the day, the RTY up 21, Bitcoin up 910, trading just at 62,500 in the futures, silver up just a hair under 2%, gold up 0.9% on the day. Yeah, they're just uh buying everything today, right? Yeah, appreciate that. Uh the pastor in the chat says thank you, appreciate you. Alright, guys. Well, that is it for this edition of Market Outlook. I'll be back with you guys tomorrow mor morning. Have fun trading.