Market Outlook Live! (Jul 9, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

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And we are live. Welcome to another Market Outlook Live. I hope everyone is having a lovely Thursday morning. So uh yesterday was a bit of a wild day in the market. Uh we had a bit of a sell-off because of uh the Iran conflict between uh the U.S. and Iran. Looks like it's back on, right? There's no more peace deal. Uh missiles are flying all over the Middle East, and you know, yesterday markets sold off, right? But today it's all coming back a little bit, which is not unsurprising. I do think that because we've been through this a few times, at some point the market just no longer really pays attention. The market no longer cares. Uh, especially when it comes to oil, I think we realize that the oil markets are fine, whether whether the Strait of Hermuz is open or not, right? There's enough oil being produced in places like the US and Russia and Canada and South America. Like there's there's all kinds of oil production going on outside of that uh area in the Middle East. That, you know, the oil market will you know never really was all that in trouble as far as, yeah, oil prices got up to $100 a barrel or whatever they got up to. But when you think about inflation, you know, what the dollar is worth today, oil going from 60 to 100 is not like a crazy move. Oil going to 200 would have been a crazy move. That would have been something to actually that would have really caused some serious global financial crisis. But, you know, the the market just did not care the first time around for this conflict with our Iran, and today they don't care either because you know, after yesterday's down move, well, although yesterday was uh interesting because we had a big down move yesterday in all the indices, and then they all rallied hard, especially toward the end of the day. I think the NASDAQ actually ticked green before close yesterday. So even yesterday, you could see the market, it was more of a flash in the pan, a one-day event. It's like, yeah, the bad news, let's sell everything. But then, you know, cooler heads prevailed. They started uh basically all those down moves and the indexes and the metals and Bitcoin, it all reversed itself uh part of the way yesterday and into today. Right now, today, the ES is up 35 points. That's uh about a half a percent update in the ES. So the SP 500 doing well, the Nasdaq up 335 points on the day. That's a 1.15% up move in the Nasdaq. The Russell up a monster move of $38.50. That is a 1.25% up day in the Russell. And to complete the picture there, let's also look at the VX futures, the volatility index futures. Uh, VX is down 18 cents, trading at $17.75. A VIX of $17.75 is a pretty normal kind of VIX. That's where volatility likes to hang out most of the time, probably in that 15 to 20 point range, and that's where we're at. This is a market that is is telling you, hey, we're not really all that concerned about anything. So that really is the key. What are the indexes doing? What's volatility doing? And that tells the story. Also, let's take a look at what some of the other uh commodity futures are doing. If I get my futures watch list sorted by change percent, what's moving lower today? Well, netty gas down five and a quarter percent. That's a big move. Natty gas is a very volatile product, though. It sometimes can make some crazy moves, but a move of more than 5% down, that's a big move. CL crude oil down $1.15 today. So that is a 1.6% decrease in crude oil. Now CL, the Q6 contract, trading at $72.32 a barrel. It got as low, and well, at one point it traded down in the 67 handle, so only $5 above uh the bottom it made just a few trading sessions ago. So again, the market basically told you well, this war is not that concerning. Uh, some other big movers to the downside. If you're playing the agricultural futures, soybeans is down three-quarters of a percent today, but soybeans has been on a tear. Had a huge day uh Monday this week, had a monster up move. Ethereum is down slightly, basically unchanged. And I mentioned Ethereum mainly because it's kind of diverging from Bitcoin. A lot of times Bitcoin and Ethereum move together, but today Ethereum unchanged on the day, but Bitcoin is up 670 points. That's a little more than 1% up move in Bitcoin. The BTC futures trading at 63,100. Some of the futures moving higher today, the biggest movers are the ones that moved down the biggest yesterday, or the biggest movers up today. The metals. The metals were in full-blown crash mode yesterday. Today they're having big rallies. So silver was down big yesterday, it's up big today, up 3.6% in the SI futures, moving to the HG futures, copper, it is up 2.6% on the day. Moving to gold, the GC futures are up 55 points. That's a 1.3% upday in gold. And uh the gold and silver moves definitely helped me because of uh I've got silver. I've got the SLV uh ETF, which is basically an ETF version of the silver futures, and that that position was ugly, ugly. That's not that's not one ugly, that's two ugly. That position was ugly ugly yesterday. I have uh GDX, uh the gold miners ETF, and because of the move in gold lately, gold going down, that had been going down. It was really hurting, especially some short puts that I had on in that. I've rolled it a lot, I've turned it into a strangle, got some calls against the puts. Um, today it's not doing much. I've kind of neutralized uh things here by turning it into a strangle, but yeah, I'm down a lot on the position, one of those positions now. Just gonna have to hold on to it. It's probably gonna be something I'm gonna be in for you know a month or two at least just to try to fight my way back to break even, just try to claw my way back to break even. Uh we'll see. We'll see if I get there. Some other movers, not really much going on in the currencies, most of them making small moves. The euro barely moving today. Japanese yen also unchanged on the day, um, hardly any movement at all. The bonds, let's take a look at the 30-year bond, the ZB. Also unchanged on the day, essentially up one tick, trading at 111.08. That's still pretty low. Obviously, we've seen uh the last seven candles or so in the bonds have been a pretty serious uh sell-off here. So uh ZN. Let's also take a look at the 10-year note. The 10-year up half a tick, basically unchanged on the day, but you can see the candle though, it's a pretty big green candle. So these did uh actually open lower today. They have since rallied to being up small here. Uh well, I say up small, it's actually uh up five ticks. That's a pretty good move.14% in the Zn there. Some of the tech stocks moving around today. Let's see what big stocks are making big moves today. Apple down a buck 60, not much of a move there. AMD though is making a real move, up 38 points. AMD trading at $555.50. That's a lot of fives, right? AMD up 7.4% on the day. ARM is also up big, up 34 points. That's an 11.5% update in ARM. ARM, the chart, you can see it'd been trending lower for the last two weeks. Having a nice pop today, though. AVGO Broadcom up six dollars. Uh, this is uh 1.63% increase in ABGO. Not a terribly big move compared to what was going on in AMD and ARM. Uh Google is down almost nine points here on the day, down 2.4%. A lot of this is the same sector rotation we've been seeing when like the hot uh memory uh names are moving, like your traditional mag 7s are going down, right? If the the microns of the world are going up, your mag 7s are going down, and if the mag 7s are going up, microns going down, it's a sector rotation. I apologize, you guys probably hear the train, the train track very close to this office where I have my recording studio here, and yeah, there's a train outside blowing a horn very loud. Yeah, IBM is down six dollars and seventy-four cents on the day. IBM has actually had a nice little run up here, but down six dollars and seventy-four cents. That's a two percent decline. Intel is up about three dollars right now. It actually had a nice little gap up this morning, it has sold off a little bit, it was as high. And this morning I saw it up about five dollars. Now it's up a little less than three dollars, but still up two and a half percent. I do have an Intel position. I have a put that was getting badly beat up because of the move down. I have since uh turned this into a strangle. I sold a 180 call. The 180 call pretty much the next day was a 50% winner, so I took that off and then sold the 165 call. This is a loser because I put this on yesterday and we're having an up day. So the uh short call, losing a little money, but I'm more than making up for it on the short put, which has got more deltas on it, so uh I'm not too worried about what's going on with that call, but it did kind of neutralize some of the directional risk on the trade by adding the call. Only have seven positive deltas on this trade, so it's a slightly bullish position, very slight bullish position. Some other of the big tech stocks moving. Micron. Micron's up 72 points. You know, that's a that's a big move there. Uh NVIDIA is down again. Mag 7s are all down with micron and sand disk and all of that are running. So uh NVIDIA down two dollars and twenty-six cents. That's a one percent decrease in NVIDIA. Big move here in Palantir down six dollars. That's a four and a half percent decline. Pretty good size move in Qualcomm up, Qualcomm up eight dollars and thirty cents. That's a four and a half percent up day in Qualcomm. SpaceX is up two points, one point three three percent up on uh SpaceX chart. Wow, what happened to that chart? That's not a the right chart. What in the heck? Yeah, there's something uh buggy here in the Tasty Trade platform getting data for SpaceX. Every candle is two candles, right? But you get the idea. Um SpaceX had the big run up right at the IPO, and then the big run down back down to exactly where it opened at 150. And since then, the last couple of weeks, we have just been uh range bound between 150 and 170. Tesla is up above 24 today, not much of a move in a $395 stock. We'll basically consider it that mostly an unchanged day. Yeah, taking a look at some of my positions. I don't really have any problem positions today because all of my problems were from yesterday on the big down day. The big up day is reversing a lot of that. Although some of the damage really only have one trade that was really damaged from yesterday's move, and that was GDX. This became a big loser, and then me defending it uh wasn't great because selling calls against it, and now it's having an upday the very next day. I got whipsawed a little bit. So that is the one problem trade. Everything else really was not affected um by anything. I did this morning in my members-only Discord put on a couple of new trades. I sold a strangle in Uber, the uh August cycle, the August monthly cycle. I sold the 62.5 put and the 87.5 call, got a 152 credit on that trade. Buying power reduction, I think, was around eight or nine hundred dollars. So not a lot of buying power required for a $152 credit there. And then another new trade put on this morning in the Discord with our members. Uh SMH, the semiconductor ETF, up $21 today. That's a 3.5% up move. But I sold a put credit spread in there for it's a $5 wide put credit spread, the $565 and the $560. At a $155 credit. On a $5 wide spread, a $155 credit means my max loss on this uh position is $345. So $345 risk versus a $155 reward and the short put, so $30 Delta. So well out of the money. I thought that was a good price on that, so I went ahead and took that trade. Um, most everything else, I really don't need any more trades. I've got some extra buying power if I find anything interesting to trade. Um may take an earnings trade today. Delta Airlines reports in the morning, so uh Delta is uh a ticker I do trade on occasion. Delta usually has pretty good implied volatility, so selling options in there is usually pretty good. A lot of times my go-to trade there is just selling strangles. Yeah, you guys in the YouTube chat, yeah. If you got questions or comments, feel free to ask away. Got a couple of folks watching here. Yeah, Andrew, uh enjoying your book on the superwheel strategy, learning a ton. Appreciate that. Yeah. So I wrote that book and published it, what, about two and a half years ago. And uh it was a learning experience for me as well. A learning experience, not just from you know, when you actually have to teach people stuff, you you learn, right? That's one of the reasons why I like doing this channel with you know teaching people about options, is you know, it reinforces uh some of this to me as well. You know, if you if you want to really learn anything, this is anything in life, you want to really learn a subject, yeah, teach others. And then you'll become a much better uh, in this case, trader, for example. I'm I'm a much better trader now, having had to write that book, having had to make YouTube videos, having my uh uh members uh only Discord, uh, you know, where my Patreon members have access to a voice chat we do every day. We have a little trading group. And yeah, yeah, you you learn a lot doing that. For me, that was the very first book I'd ever written to. And that yeah, if you've never written a book, uh yeah, there's a lot to it, right? There's a lot to it. And I did the whole thing myself as far as uh, you know, I wrote obviously wrote the book myself, formatted it myself, you know, did the cover art and all of that, and uh just because I wanted to know the whole process. If I do future books, I may outsource some of that work. Uh, but yeah, it was a it was a lot of work to get that book uh published. So for those uh interested in that book, I'm glad he mentioned it, the Super Wheel Option Strategy, especially if you're a newer options trader, you'll get a lot out of that book because I I do cover a lot of the basics of options trading, and I try to explain it in simple terms. I cover the Greeks Delta, Theta, Vega, Gamma. I cover you know implied volatility, implied volatility rate, the importance of liquidity and various uh option strategies. Mainly I focus on the wheel strategy, which is a system of selling short puts to get long stop, and then once you get the long stop, you sell cover calls to get the stock called away, and then you repeat the process. So, yeah, it's a great book. Uh link in the description below. The book is published on Amazon again. Link in the description below. For those watching on YouTube, please like, subscribe, share. For those that are going to listen to the audio only version of this podcast on an Apple or a Spotify, please give the show a five-star rating or whatever uh thumbs up, what whatever platform you're on, you know, help us grow in the algorithms. Getting back into the charts here. MES uh ES futures here now up 40. So very strong day here in the markets. Let me pull up my futures watch list as we talk here. You can actually see the market is moving around quite a bit. NASDAQ now up 400. If I pull up the one-minute chart, you can get an idea of you know the volatility today. We've had some good up and down swings here. We've been positive the whole day though, but we've had uh some good two-sided action. Probably would have been a good day to be a scalper if you're somebody that likes scalping, you know, uh ES futures, NQ futures, or MES or MNQ futures. With good two-sided action, you know, both ways, up and down. Oh you had opportunities to to scalp a few bucks there if you if you're into that sort of thing. It's not something that I do very often. Taking a quick look at some of my positions in the futures, I've got the MES ratio spreads here. I've got a call ratio spread, which is doing okay. Put this on three days ago. It was a 32-day trade, now it's a 29 DTE trade. So, but right now showing a positive PL, fine on that position. This put ratio spread, 4x2 put ratio spread, that's uh one of my standard 90 DTE put ratios. Put this on three weeks ago, 21 days ago. Now it only has 70 days left. And we are at 42% profit. So 42% of the credit received on the trade. I typically take these off at 50%. We're very close. If I needed to free up some buying power, um, might maybe to take another trade. This is close enough. I mean, I could take this trade off if I wanted to. I'm not going to. I'm gonna let that keep going though until I get to 50%. And this 4x2 put ratio put this on eight days ago. Now it has 83 days left instead of 15% of the credit received on the trade. So it's working. So yeah, all of those are doing well. Just let those keep going. Then the iron condor that I put on three days ago in the RTY futures, the Russell 2000 futures. Put this on three days ago. It was a 32 DTE trade when I first put it on. Now it's 29 days, and in three days, I'm already at 23% profit. Wow. That trade is working out very nicely. Just gonna let that keep going. I'll hold out for 50%. Anything else I need to uh pay attention to, Intel doing what it's doing today. I've turned that put into a strangle. I've kind of neutralized the position. It's not the PL is not gonna move too much, I I don't think, on me today. Nothing to do there. Silver positions working out. At least, you know, I need up days. So this is one good upday. I'd like another one tomorrow. Can I get a second one? I don't get a lot of uh, you know, a lot of times with the metals, at least for the last few months, you know, I don't get a lot of you know a lot of green candles in a row, right? You don't see a lot of clusters of green candles on this chart in SLV uh here in the first six months of the year here. A lot of back and forth two-sided action, which would be great if you're selling strangles, which I mean I do have puts and calls. Not great for my share position, though, in the share position. I've been back holding that for a little while. Uh SCHD, not moving today. The Schwab Dividend ETF. Unchanged on the day. This thing was down pretty good when we opened this morning, but it's now fought its way back to being unchanged on the day. Uh SpaceX up a couple of bucks, my put credit spread. So I sold a put credit spread in this basically as soon as SpaceX had options available. Sold the 170, 165 uh put credit spread. We're trading at 150. And I've got the 170 short put. So I'm $20 in the money on this spread. That's not good. Probably gonna be a loser. But I've got 43 days to wait it out. Uh XLF had a horrible day yesterday, having a good day today, up uh 55 cents. It was basically down that much, I think, yesterday. It was down pretty good. Yeah. So we're fighting our way back from that big move yesterday. You see, yesterday it gapped down and then sold off hard. Yeah, we've uh we might have got half of that move back, but we need I I really would like to see it get back to $56 uh a share right now. We're at $55.50. I've got two long calls in it, the 55 calls. So I'm in the money, which is good, but just barely 50 cents in the money. I've got 71 days on these. This was a a 90-day trade. So I've got plenty of time to wait on that. Just yesterday's move was was pretty bad. Because I was up quite a bit of money on those uh those calls before yesterday. Then in XSP, got all my butterflies, uh, several put broken wing butterflies, and then one call butterfly. And the call butterfly, this one here, eight days, so this expires not tomorrow, but the following Friday, next Friday. And it's already showing a nice profit. This is one I could go ahead and close, just lock in a profit if I didn't want to take the risk of maybe having a down week. Because I'm just inside the spread. We're trading at seven fifty two, and the bottom wing is the seven fifty. So we're inside the spread where I need to be. But I'm not going to close that today. I'm going to let that work. If we have a good upday tomorrow, I'll feel better about just letting that ride. If we have a down day tomorrow, you know, I'll probably still be showing a nice profit on this as long as it's not some huge down day. But you know, I'll have to decide do I want to take some risk? Because you know, it's probably about a 50-50 shot. You know, if I'm going to a win or lose on this trade because we're just at that call. And who knows? What are the odds of us going up or down next week? Well, I imagine it's about a 50-50 shot, right? So do I want to go ahead and lock in a profit and just book the win and move on? Or do I want to be greedy and let this ride? Because there is the possibility I could make upwards of around $650 on this butterfly if I pin the two short strikes next Friday at expiration. An unlikely event, but you know, there's no risk for me necessarily just letting that go because there's no assignment in the indexes. So SPX, XSP, those products do not have assignment. There's no shares. So everything cash settles. So what's the real risk? Well, the real risk of me letting this go is I'm already up 140. I give all that back plus the 150 I paid for the trade. You know, it's a $290 swing in the opposite direction to hold for a potential, you know, extra $500 of profit. Yeah. What I'm gonna go ahead and book a win. I I think we're just gonna lock that in. I'll take uh $142 if they'll fill me at that price. I'll be happy with that. I paid about uh a buck forty, buck fifty for the trade, and if I get that back, yeah, hell I'm I'm good with it. I'm good on trades. How about you guys? Questions, comments, trade ideas, problem trades, anything from you guys in the YouTube chat. I appreciate you guys hanging out with me on this Thursday, July 9th. And of course, we gotta come back tomorrow for for some trading on Friday. I'll be doing a live stream again tomorrow. I've been doing these every day on YouTube, live stream every day on YouTube at 10 a.m. Central Time. Typically go for about 30 minutes, and then right after the stream is over on YouTube, these are published as audio podcast as well. So you can always download the audio only version of the podcast on your favorite podcasting platform. Alright, nothing from you guys in the chat. Well, let's take a quick last look. Uh one thing, because I'm not using a ton of buying power, if I were looking for new trades, uh one thing people often ask, hey, how do you find trades? Well, a lot of times I'll go to a watch list, like my ETFs watch list here. I've got a list of ETFs that I've created here, here inside Tasty Trade. Let's imagine that I want to go sell some premium. You know, a lot of times my go-to trades are sell puts, sell strangles, you know, uh credit spreads, uh, ratio spreads, you know, short premium kind of trades. One of the things I like doing is creating watch lists of some good liquid symbols, and then sorting by high IV rank. So, what has really high implied volatility today? Well, SMH, the semiconductor ETF, again, I already put on a trade there with my Discord members this morning. I sold to put credit spread, has an IV rank of 100, meaning right now SMH has a IV, an implied volatility of uh the highest it's been in a year. So what a rank of 100 or more means. That's the highest implied volatility in SMH in the last year. Um DRAM has a IV rank of 92. It's not the most liquid product. I did actually think about taking a trade in that this morning. EEM, Emerging Markets, has an IV rank of 87. This is another one I looked at with the Discord members, and I thought about taking a trade in it. Uh and it looked okay. Like this was one that was kind of, I was on the fence, but I don't mind selling this 19 Delta put, which is the 60 strike, for a dollar credit on a buying power reduction of 659. I don't hate that. I really wanted to sell a call as well, but the call side didn't look like it was actually it's not bad. The bid aspirates are okay. I sell the 19 Delta call here. Was that about the same? Yeah, 19 delta put, 19 delta call, so it's delta neutral, so I'm not directionally biased in any way. I get a total of 182 credit on a buying power reduction of 659. I like that trade. Matter of fact, I like that trade enough. Let's see if I get filled in it. And if I don't get filled in it, well, that's fine. I'm gonna put in the price I want. I didn't necessarily need the trade. A lot of times, if I really want the trade, I'll I'll take it down. That's a trade I could take or leave. If they're gonna give me the price, I'll take it. If not, well, I'll try again tomorrow. Anything from you guys before we jump off? Last chance for questions or comments. Appreciate you guys hanging out. That's a market that all signs are pointing to go right now. The ES up 45, the Nasdaq now up 410, the Russell up 35. Yeah. The the market does not care about the war. That is, you know, the one of the things I often tell people is, you know, don't pay too much attention to news. A lot of people, especially if you're people one of those people that are wrapped up in politics, you know, you watch a lot of political news, and the world's always ending, and you know, 95% of everything on political uh commentary is just all bullshit. So you gotta be careful with that. Financial media is not much better. You get a lot of BS and clickbait and sensationalized stuff. The market, the market is always honest. That's the one thing the market is. It's not biased, it's honest. The market tells you exactly what it thinks, and the market did not care about this Middle East conflict at all. So, all right. Well, that is it for today's edition of Market Outlook Live. I'll see you guys tomorrow morning. Have fun trading these wild and crazy markets. Peace, guys.