Market Outlook Live! (Jul 10, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

And we are live. Welcome to another Market Outlook Live. I hope everybody is having a lovely day. It's Friday, it's the end of the week. And this week started off with some real excitement because of the um, I guess the war was back on between the U.S. and Iran, and certainly we had a lot of volatility and a lot of crazy action in the markets early in the week. And today, all of that is just a whimper, right? We're ending the week with uh a very tiny little whimper because the uh ES basically unchanged on the day. So sharply unchanged in the ES, right? Uh down only four points. The NASDAQ is selling off a little bit, down 135 points. That's not quite half a percent down day here in the NASDAQ. The Russell is actually the one that is moving the most down 24 points. That's a 0.8% decrease in the Russell 2000. And if we pull up the VX futures, take a look at what the VIX futures look like, down 19 cents. So volatility is contracting. So the market's telling you not really worried about too much today. So uh unchanged to down slightly in the indexes, but it doesn't look like much is really going on. If I actually take a look at some of the futures moving around today, if we sort by change percent, what is moving lower today? Natty gas is down almost 4% on the day. Netty gas had a big down day yesterday, having another big down day today. Silver, my old nemesis, down almost 1.5% today. Although we had a pretty good up day yesterday. Just taking back a little bit of what we got yesterday. I think I'll be fine on my silver position. Gold down 0.85% on the day, gold down 35 points, trading at 41.05. Crude oil down 25 cents. I mean, that tells you right there the market is not concerned about the war. Crude oil uh CL is trading at $71.83 a barrel. The bonds are down six ticks, trading at 111.08. Still hanging out here at the lower end of their recent range. Uh we've been hanging out here for the last three trading sessions. The 10-year notes down four and a half ticks, trading at 109.04. The euro down very slightly, not much of a movement in the currencies. The euro down 0.1%, British pound down less than 0.1%, copper is basically unchanged on the day. The Aussie dollars basically unchanged on the day. Futures moving higher, wheat is up 4.2 percent. For those playing the agricultural futures, probably not a product most people uh trade. Ethereum, the Ethereum futures, again, another product most people are not going to trade, but it is interesting that it's up two and a quarter percent, up 40 points. A good sign that maybe crypto is turning around a little bit. Bitcoin up 1.2%. Uh Bitcoin is up 760 points. So the BTC futures trading at 64,145. Uh, Japanese yen is up a third of a percent. That was, I guess, the only currency that's really moving the Japanese yen, though tends to do its own kind of thing.

unknown 3:31

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 3:32

Pretty boring kind of market, right? Outside of uh, really, I guess outside of natty gas, if you happen to be playing that, most of these moves are not much of a move. My silver position, I've got the SLV shares and a short put, and then both of those positions are in deep duty, right? I did sell some calls the other day to help the short put. I got a 65 call in August, I got a 71 and a half call in September. Those are fine. Uh on a day where silver's not making a crazy move. Actually, I'm fine on all of this. So GDX, the gold miners ETF, will move down in sympathy with gold a little bit, but down about half a percent, down 44 cents. GDX trading at $75.31. I've got two puts versus one call now. So kind of a ratioed strangle. I did have two puts and two calls yesterday, but I closed one of the calls because I was getting too many negative deltas. The trade became a negative delta trade. I wanted to keep some positive deltas, so I closed one of the calls. So I've got two 20 delta puts and one 24 delta call. Overall, I've got 15 positive deltas. Uh working out today, volatility probably contracting a little bit today. Uh let's see what is moving as far as some of your major stocks. Pull up one of my tech watch lists. Let's sort by change percent here to the downside. Intel down four and a half dollars. That's a four percent down move in Intel, and I've got a position, got a strangle now. Started live as a short put, but I sold a call to help defend it. I've actually sold a couple of calls in the last week to help defend this position. One call came off as a 50% winner in like one day, so I sold another call, a lower strike call. And this one's okay. And the put is okay today, right now. We're not down much on this position. Now two bucks, that's not much of a loss. I'm still pretty confident I can uh erase that. All we need is Intel to have a good upday. I mean, Intel can have days where it's up five dollars or even ten dollars in a day, and you know that would really help that position and basically erase most, if not all, that loss. Uh Netflix is down 3.2% on the day, down $2.42. Netflix now trading just a hair above $73 a share. IV rank of 97. I think it reports earnings, yeah, July 16th. So that is next week. So that's partly why the IV is so elevated. SpaceX is down $4.34 today, trading at $147.90, still hanging out around this $150 area where it looks like it wants to hang out. So um I did have my put credit spread in SpaceX that was pretty badly underwater. I had time to wait it out. I had another 42 days, but my short strike on that uh put credit spread was the 170. I didn't feel great about the trade, so I took it off, took a $2 loser on it. You know, I figured I'd just cut my losses and move on. I put the trade on back here when options first uh opened. I think it was this candle, and that 170 put credit spread. Seemed all right when it was trading here, but you know, once it got down here and it's just kind of hung out in that range, it's like, yeah, you know what? It was fun to trade it the very first day, you know, options traded and put that trade on. But you know, it wasn't a great trade. Just take the L and move on with life. No reason to keep fighting it out and let the $200 loss turn into a $350 loss, which is what the max loss would have been on the trade. ARM down 2.5% today, Oracle down about 2.5% today as well. The Oracle chart. Every time I pull it up, it's just this chart looks so bad. Qualcomm down uh $4, that's about a 2.2% drop in Qualcomm. Yeah, I guess the uh memory stocks and the chip stocks are all weak today. Micron down $20, uh trading at $9.71. Google down five dollars and seventy-six cents today, down 1.6 percent. Um Apple, which was I thought Apple was higher when I first looked at it this morning. It might have been uh just barely. It's at a range here, but right now Apple is down almost three dollars. That's not much of a move in a $313 company. So what is moving higher? Meta. Meta, I don't know what the news was, but meta's been moving, had a big day yesterday, having another big day today. Meta's up $38. That's a 6% jump in Meta. That's helping uh keep the market up. Nvidia up 2%, up $4. Coinbase up $2.32, up one and a half percent. That's on the strength of Bitcoin, obviously. Uh AMD basically unchanged on the day, Tesla's basically unchanged on the day. Taking a quick look at some of my positions, MES. Let's see, what have I got here? Ratio spreads. Call ratio spread, which I just put on four days ago. It was a 33, 31 DTE sort of trade. I like to keep call ratios shorter time frames compared to my put ratios that I put out at 90 days. So it's a 30-day call ratio, been in four days. It's uh making a little money. I'm gonna have to wait it out a little bit before I get to a decent profit, but we'll just let that keep working. This is a put ratio that is already at 46% profit. This is a 90-day trade, been in at 22 days. 46% is very close to 50% where I take my profit. Matter of fact, I've already got the working order sitting here. If we get to 50% profit at some point today, you know, that should come off. And then I've got another 4x2 put ratio down here that I just put on nine days ago. Still has 82 days. 21% though of the uh profit on the trade. So, I mean, that's great in just nine days, already at 21%. Remember, I'm gonna hold for 50% profit though. So I just let all of that keep working. RTY, the Russell 2000 futures here. I've got an iron condor. This was another 30-ish day trade, been in it four days, already at 27.5% profit there. That's great in just four days. No, that's just let that keep working. I'll wait for 50% profit on that as well. Uh GDX and in uh silver, we've already took a look at the metals-related positions. They're doing okay today, although they're not in trouble, so I don't need to do anything. The Intel trade, despite Intel being down, this is not terrible either because I did have for the call. The call profited greatly on the down move. I guess that that call had some teeth to it to start the day as well. So, yeah. Uh SMH, this was a brand new trade we put on yesterday. Uh put credit spread in the semiconductors 565-560 semiconductors down a little bit today, down $2.37. So, not helping the trade, but it's not much of a move against it either. Uh, brand new trade though, one day. Still got 42 days on the trade, just let that keep working. This is a brand new trade I put on this morning with my uh Discord members. So I've got my members only uh Discord for patrons where we get together and hold a live voice chat uh every day the market is open in the mornings. And this is a broken wing put butterfly. So um this is SPX. This particular butterfly, if I pull it up, let's go ahead and get into the trade page, go to curve and analysis here.

SPEAKER_00 11:24

Let me zoom in a little bit.

SPEAKER_01 11:29

So the way this works is I did a $30 spread on this side of the butterfly and a $60 spread on this side, so that forms the broken wing. I made sure I got a credit. I received a $205 credit, so $205 credit. The center of the spread here, I have an extra $3,000 of profit potential because of the $30 wide spread. So in this skinny area up here where we're trading at now, I make $205. If the market goes up, trade sideways comes down, but just a little, I'm gonna make $205. But if we get inside the butterfly spread, I have $3,000 of extra profit potential. If I pin the two short strikes exactly at expiration, I could make $3,205. And the max loss on this trade would be $27.95. So if the market crashes hard and finishes below the butterfly spread, it'd you know take a pretty serious move to get there, but it's certainly possible, you know, I'd take about a $2,800 loss on the trade. So that is that broken wing butterfly in SPX. I also put on a new uh call butterfly in XSP, the mini SPX. Um I've got that as well. I can show you guys that. As well, I got a lot of butterflies in XSP, so we actually need to turn everything off except the one that I just put on this morning if I can find it.

SPEAKER_00 12:58

There we go. Let me zoom way in on this. On this one, yeah, I did uh what did I do?

SPEAKER_01 13:06

I did a five dollar wide uh call credit spread, and then I did a eight dollar wide call debit spread. So the way I broke this wing, I broke it to the upside. So XSP is trading down here, and if I never get an up move, I'm just gonna lose everything I paid for the trade. I paid, I think a buck fifty, buck sixty, you know, for the trade, 160 bucks. But if I get the move right, I stand the chance to win an extra five dollars because of the spread here. It was five dollars. I could make upwards of six fifty, six sixty. And if it goes above the spread, well, because I broke the wing in such a way that I can't lose above the spread, there's no way I could get hurt on a big up move. I'm still gonna make around 150 bucks, even if you know XSP just explodes higher. And I like breaking these call butterflies to where I can't lose to the upside because these are more directional plays. I'm this is more of a you know, I'm prepared to lose if the market goes down. What I don't like is losing when the market goes up, but it went up too big. So that is that broken wing butterfly there, XSP and another trade I put on this morning with the members of the Discord. And for those of you interested actually in joining the uh Discord, uh just check out the links in the show description. Uh, you'll find links to my Patreon. Just look for DT Options on Patreon. When you sign up and become a patron, you are granted access to the DT Options Discord where we have the uh daily voice chats. Uh basically very similar to what we do here. You know, I share my trading platform. You guys get to see all the trades I make for the day, opening trades, closing trades rules. You guys get to ask me about what you've got going on with trades, uh, trade ideas, we get to discuss strategies. Sometimes we do some back testing, we do some pretty interesting things. We've got a really nice trading community there in the DT Options Discord. So if it's something that interests you, check that out. We'd love to have you guys. Uh, those of you in the YouTube chat, you've got questions or comments. Uh, I know typically we talk a little more about these markets. These markets, though, today, not doing much, right? Not the most interesting market today. Right now, the ES is up six, the Nasdaq only down 36. Those are basically unchanged moves. Like, there's nothing going on in the SP and the Nasdaq today. Russell down 20. That's a that's a real move. That's a bit of a down day in the Russell. But with volatility contracting, the market, it looks like everybody went on holiday. It's like a summer break, right? Uh, let's see. Yeah. We've got Eric and Speckledust saying, hey. Uh let's see. Uh uh Lorman Fam. I I doubt I pronounced your your name right. I apologize about that, but he asked, can you run a back test on double calendars with Lovic 16, 15, and 14? I'm sure you can. I can do it in Tasty. I'm not gonna do that here. Uh but yeah. You may be surprised on those that they don't they're not as good as what you might think.

SPEAKER_00 16:20

Uh Tuesdays and Wednesdays, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 16:25

Yeah, are you asking me to perform back tests for you? Like, you know, I get this a lot in the comments. Hey, can you perform the no, I'm not I don't sit around and just perform back tests for people. Like, I got stuff to do. Alright. Yeah, the wizard, distro tube. Yep. I tell you what, I'll make one one exception since you asked nicely, right? Let's do the uh double calendar. Yeah, so let's go to the back test tool. If you guys are new to tasty, I'll show you how to work this tool. You have symbols here. Now you can't just pick any symbols, it's got to be something in the list. SPX thankfully is in the list, of course. Uh, five years, we'll do a five-year back test, and I will start with the short options. So let's uh sell a put first. Sell a 30 delta put, which is exactly what I wanted. We'll do these 14 DTE, which in this there's like a one-day offset, like one DTE is really a zero DTE. So I'll do 15 DTE, uh 30 delta put, add another leg, sell a 30 delta call at 15 dTE, and then I'm gonna link some long legs to these. So I will link a long put uh negative five, five dollars below at an extra week's time, which would be 21 DTE. Here I'll enter 22, and then I'll link the short call, a long call, that's five dollars above where the short call was priced at 22 DTE. We take profit at 20%, and that was from the video the other day, and we'll do since he asked Tuesday and Wednesday and use VIX. Let's do VIX. He wanted, I'm not gonna run three different back tests, max VIX 16. We'll just use 16. You're not gonna get a lot of VIX under 15, and especially under 14 anyway. It's gonna drastically limit the number of your trades. Uh VIX just doesn't get that low all that often. So I'll stick with 16. And you can see these straight lines sideways, just there's no VIX ever below 16 in 2022. You just take the entire year of 2022 off from trading. Right? That's part of uh you know something you gotta consider here. Yeah, pretty much every market kind of meltdown, you know, when VIX gets elevated, even a little elevated. Yeah, I mean, you're taking weeks, if not months, off from trading. That's the straight lines.

SPEAKER_00 19:07

So you're not gonna have a whole lot of trades.

SPEAKER_01 19:14

Yeah, if you're doing this on SPY, yeah, do you make the uh wings one dollar instead of uh well I made these wings five dollars in SPX because SPX has five dollar wide uh strikes. Yeah, you just make it as small as you can.

SPEAKER_00 19:28

I mean one dollar's fine in an SPY. Yeah, return on capital 111%.

SPEAKER_01 19:39

It's not great compared to if you just did it in all volatility environments, you know, this thing was what, 300, 400%? So I I kind of knew it wasn't gonna be a great test, but since you asked since you asked nicely, I ran it for you.

SPEAKER_00 19:54

That's the only one you get.

SPEAKER_01 19:56

So now if you do that trade in SPY, uh SPY is one-tenth of the s the size of SPX, so it becomes a really small trade in SPY, which might be okay if you got a really small account, but it might be too small. You know, if you can do it in SPX, it's probably the better product. You want something kind of in between SPY and SPX? You there's the ES Futures, which is five times the size of SPY, one half the size of SPX, so it's a nice middle ground, the ES Futures. But the problem with the ES Futures is sometimes you you don't have small strikes to make the spreads. Sometimes you gotta get kind of wide on those spreads, which can make the the pricing a little funny.

SPEAKER_00 20:48

Uh yeah. Thanks. It was from the video you posted the other day.

SPEAKER_01 20:51

Thought the return was great. Yeah, the return is great.

SPEAKER_00 20:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 20:55

If you can stomach the wild PL swings. You know, it's a trade that's gonna have some some it's not a smooth ride up, you know. It's not like a short put kind of strategy and spy, right? It's not gonna have that same kind of smooth, gradual drift higher. It's a choppy road, right? But over time, yeah, you you make more than what you lose. So probably not a trade that you can just that can be your main core trade. Like that's the trade I'm always in. That's the only trade I do. No, but it's something to mix and match, right? Sell some puts in SPY or some put credit spreads in SPY. Also do the double diagonal and a SPX. Maybe do, I don't know, iron condor occasionally, maybe some short day. Maybe you're a zero DTE iron condor. Like you can uh, you know, have multiple things going on. It'll help you be diversified by strategy, it'll help diversify some of the risk because each trading strategy has its own unique risk to it.

SPEAKER_00 21:54

So mixing and matching strategies does help protect you. Back to the trading platform here.

SPEAKER_01 22:03

Right now, ES up 10, NASDAQ unchanged on the day. Yeah. Taking a quick look at my PL on the day. I mean, most everything is positive, which is great, but we're not seeing any real big swings in anything. So for the most part, I don't have uh much to do. I did take the two new trades with my Discord members. Uh, one thing we did discuss this morning in the Discord, I think it was something I discussed with you guys, is how to search for new trades. We went over this a little bit yesterday, but here in Tasty Trade or on your trading platform, I'm sure you have watch lists, right? Go to a watch list. And what I like to do is search for IV rank that is high if I'm selling options. If I, for whatever reason, wanted to buy an option, I'd probably want low IV. So I'd sort by things that have low IV. One thing that I like in Tasty is I have this uh indicator column. If I move my head out of the way, the indicator column tells me earnings and it also tells you dividend, uh, x dividend dates as well. But the earnings events is really important. For example, if I wanted you know to sort by high IV, well, the highest IV on the board right now is Meta. Meta has 119 IV rank. That's crazy high. Would I want to go put on, you know, like a short put, short strangle, short iron condor kind of position in meta right now? Well, it reports earnings in 19 days. So probably not. I probably wait until uh 19 days and maybe put on something right at earnings, or some people like to do pro post-earnings trades, wait till the day after. So earnings, you know, because we're at the start of the earnings season, I like things that I have at least four weeks of time, about a month of time on. So if I'm scanning like the earnings column here, I'm looking for anything that's got like 28 days or more, you know, like earnings 27 days. VST, you know, has high IV rank, doesn't report for 27 days. Maybe I could, it's not a ticker I ever traded, but you know, it is in my watch list here. 32 days here in eToro. That's not very liquid. I wouldn't trade that. 54 days in Figma. Not something I'd trade. Uh, Broadcom. Earnings in 55 days. IV rank 39. Yeah, could I find a trade here? Well, let's go and see what I would do. Right now, Broadcom, I know, is kind of range bound. And so ticker I do pull up and look at the chart almost every day, even though I don't trade at all that often. But because it's kind of range bound and it's got decent IV. Let's see what we could get for an iron condor. I'll sell the 16 delta put and buy the wing $10 below. We've only got $10 wide wings to work with here. I get a $145 credit, which is a nice credit to be that far out. That is not bad. Now let's hope we get something juicy on the call side. Go 16 delta call, $10 wide. Yeah, the call was not as juicy, only a dollar credit on the call side, but that still brings our total credit to $256. We're risking $750 basically to make $250. So three to one risk reward. You wanted to bring the call side in since they weren't very pricey. Uh maybe 19 deltas on the call side, thing ten dollars wide. Bumps it up to about a 285 to 290 credit. So, you know, this just me showing you a little bit of how I go through some of this, and uh yeah, I just got filled on something, did I? I didn't put that order in because I didn't need the Broadcom trade. No, I got filled on MES. The put ratio that I had in for a 50% profit, it got filled. So that came off for a 50% profit. I could put on another one. Typically, I would wait till Monday. I like spacing these out like every two weeks, and Monday will be about two weeks. So I'll put the other four by two spread on on Monday. I'll probably do that with my Discord members. I can go over that with you guys real quick. So on Monday, what I'll do is I'll go out to whatever cycle is closest to 90 days, which right now is this 98-day cycle. On Monday, it'll be a 95-day cycle, but close enough to 90. And I'll go and I'll sell the 10 delta put. And I like making these around 150, sometimes 200 points wide. Let's probably say 200 point wide in this case, put debit spread. So sell the 6650, buy the 6850. I pay 1460 for that. The multiplier in MES, the micro ES, is 5, not 50. So 5 times essentially 15 bucks, that is a uh 75 credit I get on the trade. 75 or excuse me, 75 cent debit I pay on the trade, $75 debit. So $9.25 is the max profit on that spread. That's some nice downside protection, you know, that I don't have to pay a lot for. And then I just go back and double up the put, uh, the short put. Now I sell two puts versus buy the one. Now it brings the overall credit to $33.75 times five. On a two by one. Max profit though is $11.65 because of the embedded spread that had that extra you know $1,000 of profit on it. And this is what the put ratio. I know I've covered this with you guys, but such a cool trade, so very flexible. Uh it's a trade I think every options trader should know about. I think you owe it to yourself to explore the wonderful world of the put ratio spread. So one naked put, and then the put debit spread. The market's trading way up here. And the market goes up forever, trades sideways, comes down, but doesn't go down very much. I'm gonna make $168 or so. But if we get inside the spread, especially late in the option cycle, I have the chance to make another $1,000 because of the 200-point wide spread here. Times five. Well, I have the chance to make $1,168 if I pin the two short strikes exactly at expiration in 95 days. The risk on the trade is if the market crashes real hard, there is one naked short put as part of this trade that could start losing in a big way, but we're so far out of the money and with so much time on the trade in 90 days. I was able to get way out of the money on a 10 delta short put. You know, this trade, if you back test it, it wins like 95 to 97% of the time. Very high probability trade. That's a trade I would manage at 50% of the credit received, which you guys saw me take 50% on that last trade.

SPEAKER_00 28:44

Good thing about using the futures like ES or MES, you get the margin relief.

SPEAKER_01 28:49

You know, futures come with a portfolio style margin system, so you get great margin relief.

SPEAKER_00 28:54

Be careful, those trades are a little bigger, a little riskier than you think. Let's see.

SPEAKER_01 29:03

From you guys in the chat, yeah, questions, comments for those of you uh watching the stream live on YouTube. Like, subscribe for those that are gonna listen to the audio only version of the podcast, because I do release this as an audio uh podcast on your Apple, Spotify, all of that stuff. I I push all of that out to uh podcasts as soon as I'm done live streaming each day. That typically is available within five to ten minutes after the stream ends on YouTube, so you guys can listen to the audio only version if you're listening in a car or at the gym. And on those platforms, your apples, your Spotifies, give the show a five-star rating, help us grow in the algorithms. Yeah, Speckle asks, what would a typical profit target be for a calendar? 20%, 25%. It's about as high as you want to set. It's really tough to get you're not gonna get to 50% very often. I I got I wouldn't even try.

SPEAKER_00 30:03

20%, I think, is a good number.

SPEAKER_01 30:09

And to be honest, I know you know, like the the tasty uh guys like recommending like 50% on iron condors. And I'm I mean, I've got an iron condor in RTY right now. It's 30% in just four days. Uh these don't actually work out like this very often. Sometimes trying to get to 50% on an iron condor takes forever. And sometimes you just it just never gets there, right? Especially if you're managing early, not not trying to let things go to expiration. And I don't like letting like an iron condor go to expiration. I would probably take this off, you know, early. In this case, it was like a 30-day iron condor. I'd probably manage it like a week out, you know, like seven DTE. I there would be gamma risk if I let it go all the way to expiration, especially if it starts threatening one side. So I'd manage this early, but then you'd be surprised sometimes. You can be in these iron condors and they just man, that's really tough to get to 50%. So even an iron condor, sometimes I, you know, I can get to 30% like I am now. Well, just take it off, be happy. But those calendars, yeah, especially. Yeah, be happy with a 20%, 25% win on a calendar spread. There's never and really any trade. When we talk about profit targets, there's no right or wrong answer. The the right answer is did you take a profit? Any profit that you uh think is a good profit and you're ready to close a trade and close it, book that win and move on. There's never ever a right or wrong answer. Um, it's never wrong to take a profit. Let's just put it that way. It's never wrong to close a trade. Uh I won't say it's I can think of some unique situations because of bad pricing, wide bid ass spreads, things like that. But you know, if you think it's time to take a profit, take it. If you think it's time to take a loss, like I mentioned earlier this morning, I took a loss on that SpaceX uh put credit spread because I just didn't think the trade was ever gonna win. I was already down a lot. Like, hey, why don't I just cut my losses here? You know, I didn't think more than about 10 seconds. And then I bet say it's the right thing to do. I'd feel better just getting out of the trade. Don't want to be in the trade. Yeah. It's never wrong to take a win. It's never wrong to take a loss. If it you think it's the right thing to do, do it. You'll feel better. Uh if especially if it's something that's kind of bothering you because it's a risky trade, a lot of times you'll immediately feel better as soon as you're out of that trade. All right, guys. Well, that's it for this week's edition of Market Outlook. I will be back with you guys on Monday morning. Right now, the ES and the NQ are actually green on the day, so this market might actually start rallying. That would help my portfolio. Have fun trading, guys. Peace.