Market Outlook Live! (Jul 14, 2026)

DT takes a quick look at what the markets are doing today.  Feel free to post questions and comments in the YouTube chat.  Super Chats are always appreciated and are more likely to get a response.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

And we are live, live once again with another Market Outlook Live. Starting the stream uh about six minutes late. I actually started the stream on time, but then I realized I didn't have any sound. So uh we're back, and now hopefully you guys on YouTube can actually hear what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_00 0:21

Alright. So yeah, appreciate you guys for hanging out in the chat.

SPEAKER_01 0:29

Hopefully, uh everything is good now. Can you guys hear me? Give me a yay or a nay on the audio. Actually, I'll just preview it myself. It looks like it is all good now. Alright. Yeah, so let's jump into what the markets are doing today. So, right now, the ES is up 34 points, right? So this is uh about a half a percent up move in the SP 500 futures today. The NQ futures, the Nasdaq futures, up 358 points, up 1.2%. So the tech heavy Nasdaq doing well. The RTY futures, the Russell 2000, up 1350, up about half a percent. Although the Russell, you can see, was up quite a bit higher today and has since sold back off to being up just about 12, 13 points on the day. But green and all the indices, if we take a look at the VIX futures, the volatility futures down 58 cents, that's a 3.25% decrease in volatility in one day. The VIX futures currently trading at $17.20. That is a market telling you that it's not concerned. This is a market that doesn't seem to be all that concerned about much today. We had a down day in the indices yesterday, right? So we were red on the ES, NQ, RTY, all the market indices yesterday. Volatility was expanding yesterday. We had oil rising, we had bonds falling, we had gold and silver falling, we had Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies falling. And today we're pretty much reversing most of those moves. So the indices now green on the day. Uh the one that is not reversing on us, CL. Well, CL is having a down day, a small little down day, down 43 cents. It was actually up earlier in the session, now down 52 cents on the day. So I guess I could consider that a reversal. And certainly everything else I just talked about has reversed from yesterday's move. Gold up 100 points, trading at 41.05. That's the GC futures, up 2.5% today. Pretty big move, but it had a pretty big move down, so we're just taking back yesterday. That's pretty much the story of most of these products. SI, the silver futures, up 3.3% today. That's a pretty good update, but it had a pretty big down day yesterday, so it's a very similar kind of chart, right? It's just taking back yesterday. The HG futures, the copper futures, up 2.5%. Copper's been very strong. Where the precious metals, gold and silver, have been very weak. You can see in the last several months of the copper chart, looks pretty strong. And the last two weeks of copper definitely looks like it is in an uptrend. The BTC futures, Bitcoin, up 2,055 points on the day, trading at 64,405. That is a 3.3% increase in Bitcoin. Again, had a pretty ugly day yesterday. So today's move just erasing what happened yesterday. Uh bonds, let's move over to the treasuries. Let's take a look at the 30-year ZB. 30-year bond up 15 ticks. Well, it just ticked up another one tick, uh up 16 ticks, trading at a 111.07. Pretty wide range today. ZN, which is the 10-year note, up 13 and a half ticks, trading at 109.04, about a 0.4% increase in the notes there. Now, some of what is moving around the bonds and yields, yields and bonds have an inverse relationship. Was we had an economic report this morning at uh 7:30 a.m. Central Time, one hour before the stock market opened. We had the CPI report this number this morning, and the number, I guess, was good, so the market reacted positively. So that's part of why everything is smooth sailing today. For those playing the currencies, 6e, the Euro futures, up half a percent. If I move over to 6A, the Aussie dollar, that was the biggest mover this morning, uh, up uh 1%. 6C, the Canadian dollar, up two-thirds of a percent. 6J, the Japanese yen, up a quarter of a percent. So all the currencies uh futures are up, means the dollar is a little weaker today. Any other futures product, um, we need to talk about nettigas. Netty gas is one of the few of the futures products that's having a down day, down uh 0.7% on the day. Netty gas trading at 2.877. And for those playing the agricultural futures, corn and soybeans are down. Corn is down 1% on the day, soybeans down 0.7% on the day. Let's talk about some of the stocks moving this market. Let's first talk about a surprise earnings event. IBM, which was not set to report earnings today, it was uh set to report earnings in about a week, went ahead and reported early this morning. And typically that is not a good sign. That's never a good sign when a company reports earnings early. It usually means, hey, we know our earnings are going to be really bad. We just want to get it out there and be done with it. That's exactly what happened. I guess the earnings report was pretty terrible. The stock dropped $75 today. That is a 26% decline in one day in IBM. That's a pretty nasty move. Uh now, the good thing is with this drop, if you're not playing IBM, that just spiked volatility in a big way. Is now the time to go sell some options, go maybe to the August cycle, the 38-day cycle. I imagine you can sell some way out of the money puts for a decent price. I mean, I could go sell, well, I could go sell this 12 delta put, the 175 put, which is $40 out of the money for a $250 credit on a buying power reduction of $1750. That's you know, if you think that IBM will, you know, find a floor here, maybe even reverse this move a little bit, you know, that could be an interesting trade. Now, if you think there's still some momentum to the downside, maybe selling the put is a little too risky, or you don't mind selling the put, but you want to hedge your bets a little bit, sell the call too. You can go sell, well, hell, go sell the 12 delta call, which is the 275 call. Wow, there's actually some call skew here. That is $60 out of the money on the call side. Overall, you get a 470 credit on a buying power reduction of $2,100. You know, it's a risky trade, certainly, but you are getting paid to take that risk with volatility uh being quite elevated in IBM after this crash down here. But that was an unexpected earnings event. The earnings events that were expected, we had five major banks that reported this morning. So let's start with JP Morgan, which of course is the largest US bank. Uh JP Morgan is currently up 2.5%, trading at $343. That's an eight and a half dollar up move. Now it actually did open lower this morning. JP Morgan opened lower, and then as soon as the market opened, it actually rallied. And it was kind of weird. All five of the banks that reported earnings, they all reported great numbers. But for some reason, they all were down pre-market. But as soon as the market opened, they all rallied. I think the market just took a second to realize hey, these earnings reports in JP Morgan and Bank of America and the rest are all pretty good. Now they were all down, now they're all up. Bank of America's up uh a buck 45. That's about a two and a half percent up move. Bank of America trading just under $61 a share. Citigroup up a buck 81. That's a one and a quarter percent up move in Citigroup, Citigroup trading at 142. Wells Fargo also um reported good earnings, although it is down, down slightly, down 44 cents, not much of a move. And Goldman Sachs, which is the largest stock in the Dow because the Dow is not market weighted. Remember, the Dow is different than the SP and the NASDAQ and the Russell. They all weight by market cap. The Dow 30, though, they weight by share price. With an $1,100 share price, Goldman Sachs does move the Dow so down uh, or excuse me, up $75 on the day. So that's going to move the Dow. The Dow currently, if I actually go take a look at the YM futures, is essentially unchanged on the day. Now, how is the largest stock in the Dow 30 up 7% today? But the Dow is still down. It's because IBM, which we talked about, crashed 26%. IBM is also in the Dow. So they kind of canceled each other out there in those moves. Yeah, you guys in the chat, if you got any questions or comments or anything before I move on, feel free to leave anything.

SPEAKER_00 9:27

I am getting an alert on my phone. Give me just a second here. And nothing important there.

SPEAKER_01 9:40

Alright, well, let's take a look at some of the other big movers that were not the earnings plays. Any other stocks making big moves. I'm going to pull up one of my tech uh stock watch lists. Things that are moving other than IB other than IBM, which we know is kind of crazy here. Uh ARM down four and a half percent. Oracle, which is down practically every day. Oracle down one and a half percent. Really, really ugly looking chart. Microsoft is down five percent. Now, some of these stocks are going to be moving in conjunction with IBM. IBM kind of a software-related name, which kind of makes sense why a Microsoft and a Oracle and probably stocks like Adobe, which is a big software name, down eight dollars today, three and a half percent down move, Palantir software company, uh, actually up a little bit, up $2.89. Um, what's some other like cybersecurity companies like a CrowdStrike? What's it doing today? Wow, up 10% on the day. That's a move, right? Uh, this did not report earnings. This has to be news related, but I did not see any news. It's not a stock that I often check. It was just something that popped into my head to check here. Oh, that's quite a move. Some other big movers today, a lot of the chip names are moving. AMD is up 5.5%, up $30 on the day, trading at $564 a share. Micron is up $37 today, trading at $974 a share. It's a 4% up move. AVGO Broadcom up $11 on the day. It's a 3% up move. And Intel up 284 on the day, up 2.7%. Some of these stocks I do have positions, and I have an Intel strangle, a position that started life as a short put that kind of went against me, and I defended it by turning it into a strangle. Sold a call. I think originally I sold the 180 call, which became a 50-60% winner, I think, uh, pretty much like in one day. Then I sold the 165 call, just kept going down in price with the calls, and you know, chipping away at that loss on the put, uh, it's not much of a loss, $170, kind of a smallish kind of loss. I feel pretty confident I'll be able to get all that back and then eventually profit on this trade. But yeah, everything is working. Actually, just taking a look at my positions today, pretty much everything is working today. On a day where the market is up. You know, nothing is moving in a crazy way, just looking at PLs on the day. I don't have any negative PLs really. Uh, and I've got a couple of small little red PLs, but these are max loss positions. Like, I'm I'm not worried about that. That's already a max loser. I'm just waiting for that to come off the books at some point. Uh, the SEHD position, I guess, is a loss, but this is just shares I'm holding on to. Obviously, made a lot of money in this this year because uh, especially the rise in oil has been good for this stock. The energy sector outperformed, and there were a lot of energy sector uh companies in this ETF, especially in the early part of the year. Now they may have rebalanced it since then. Down 30 cents, though, in SCHD. That's a pretty big move in this product, especially when the market is up. But these are a lot of uh your dividend-paying companies, blue chip kind of names that aren't the sexiest kind of companies, they're not tech. And it is tech that's kind of moving this market today. If I pull up XLK, the tech sector, it is up one and a half percent today. SMH is up uh almost three percent. That's your semiconductor uh ETF there. It's definitely tech that's kind of pushing the market around, as well as because of the bank earnings, XLF, the financial sector up 32 cents, XLF, uh up half a percent. Pretty good moves. Taking a quick look at some of my positions. I've got a call ratio spread here in MES that expires in 24 days, looking good, nothing to do there. Um, and then I've got two put ratio spreads in MES. These are longer day to trades, 78 days, 94 days, both are okay. I don't have a lot to do, right? On a day where the market's kind of doing exactly what I needed, you know, because yesterday's down move kind of hurt. Today's up move kind of erases yesterday, kind of gets me back to where I needed to be on a lot of these positions. Got an iron condor and the Russell Futures, the RTY futures. Put this on yesterday morning, so it's a brand new trade really, just been in it one day. Still got 31 days. I typically do these around 30 days or so. Iron condors and RTY. I had one on last week. I took it off for a winner. In like four days, I took it off for a profit, and then I put on the next one uh Monday morning, this week, yeah, yesterday morning. GDX, this has been an ugly position I've been defending, but GDX having a nice day because gold is up. The gold miners are up. GDX is the gold miner uh sector ETF up $2.24. That's a 3% upday in GDX. Yeah, two puts versus one call. You got 217 delta puts versus 124 delta call. So yeah, carrying some some positive deltas, and we're having an upday. That's what I needed. And anything else? We've already taken a look at Intel Silver, my old nemesis, having an update today. So, you know, this big loser here we've been fighting for a few months, still got the shares. Nothing to do there, and then the options are working out the deep in the money put, which almost is like another 100 shares because it's pretty deep in the money. And uh let's see them, four and a half dollars in the money, so not real, real deep in the money, but it's a 71 delta put, so it acts like 71 shares of SLV. Having an update, so getting a little bit of profit on that. And then I've got two short calls, which actually you would think would be hurt by an update, but they're not. Why is that? Well, probably because volatility is also contracting a little bit in SLV, which is pretty much helping all short options, so yeah, everything is smooth sailing today. The SPX put broken wing butterfly I put on Friday last week. Brand new trade. Well, not really, because I mean I've been in it, put it on an end of day Friday, so I've been in it yesterday and then part of today, right? So about one and a half days. Hasn't really had time to do much. Had a down day yesterday in the market, had an update today in the market about where it was when I started the trade. We just let this go, right? Nothing to do there. Uber, I've got a strangle. The strangle has not profited, which is kind of weird. I've been in the Uber strangle for five days. You take a look at the chart of Uber, I mean, this screams strangle, right? In this chart, the last few months, just sideways, choppy sideways. I love it. Right? The last five days, you know, which is when I had my strangle on. You would think, man, this thing, strangle would be doing great. It's not, I guess because probably IV may be expanding a little bit in there. Delta-wise, I'm still perfectly delta neutral on the trade, so don't really need to do anything. Then XSP, the mini SPX got a few butterflies, put butterfly that expires on Friday this week, put butterfly that expires Friday next week, call butterfly that expires Friday next week, and then another call butterfly that expires three Fridays from now. 17 DTE. All of these are fine as far as the put butterflies, they're not gonna lose to the upside. The call butterflies actually need up movement. We're getting a little bit of an update. I need a bigger update, but I've got some time on these trades, 10 days and 17 days. So if the market does what it normally does and gives me that positive drift, I'll be fine. But here's the thing with this market: what's been weird, if I pull up the ES again, pull up the chart, the ES, the NQ, the RTY, they all look very similar. We made some all-time highs back here around June 1st, June 2nd, and then the market sold off a just a little bit, but it's like it's stuck in a mud, right? It's stuck in a range here. Not really going down, not really going up, a lot of choppy two-sided action, which would be fine for things like strengths, iron condors, um, even you know, out of the money, like a short put, short call, uh, ratio spreads. But for things that require movement, so directional trades, like that call butterfly that I just showed you, you know, those are very directional. I have to get a move in my direction to profit. You know, this is not a great market for that because it's a market that just doesn't look like it wants to move. The NQ looks very similar. If we pull up the Nasdaq futures, made all-time high back here on like the June 2nd, June 3rd. Well, I mean, we're in the middle of July, right? A month and a half later, and it's this chart looks very range-bound. Like a very tight range RTY, the Russell. A little different in the Russell. The Russell has carried a little bit more upside momentum through most of that time period. But still, I wouldn't say these are big moves. I wouldn't say it's like a raging bull market in the Russell, it's very tiny moves. And it I would consider this pretty rangebound, which it's been great for my iron condors. You know, the iron condor last week that we did that came off as a winner, and this one is already starting to show a profit, only being in it one day. Yeah, for you guys in the YouTube chat, appreciate you guys hanging out. I know we had technical difficulties at the beginning of the stream when I started this stream, uh didn't have working audio. I actually, you know, talked for uh two or three minutes before realizing we didn't have working audio and then had to uh delete the old stream without any audio and start a new stream. So started a few minutes late. Thank you guys for hanging out. If you guys got any questions or comments, feel free to leave them in the YouTube chat. Also, for those that will listen to this as an audio version of a podcast, because I do release the audio version of this as a podcast right after the live streams on YouTube. They go out to the world. So if you want to download the audio version on an Apple or Spotify, it's available. Please, if you listen on those platforms, give the show a five-star rating. For those watching the video portion of the podcast on YouTube, give us a thumbs up, right? Help us grow in the algorithms on any of these platforms that you may be watching.

SPEAKER_00 20:05

And taking a quick look at what the market is doing.

SPEAKER_01 20:18

Looking strong. Let's pull up the one-minute chart here on the Nasdaq. Actually, if I go back to 730, let's go back to when the CPI report came out. See this candle here, this giant candle. Let me move my head out of the way. This is 7:30, one hour before the market opened. The CPI report came out, and you can see the NQ shot up 200 points in one minute, right? And then kind of came back down to earth a little bit. So that was the action this morning on the economic report. Now, CPI came out this morning. PPI comes out tomorrow morning. So the CPI is the most important kind of inflationary report. And right now, this market is worried about inflation. So CPI is the consumer price index. PPI is the producer price index, it comes out tomorrow, and that's an important uh report too. So if that number is especially good or especially bad, it will move the market. If the number's in line, you know, it may not move the market much. I think we have uh other economic reports this week. I think on Thursday we might get like a retail sales or something, which is not nearly as important as these uh CPI and PPI reports right now, because again, it's the inflation concerns that has this market worried. A lot of that inflation concern is because of oil. You know, is rising oil prices gonna be a problem for inflation? Well, right now the CL contract, CLU6, up 16 cents on the day, uh, and was down 40 cents when we first looked at it. So it's moving around a little bit, but it's not really oil is definitely not exploding. Had a big update yesterday, right? Oil was up big yesterday. But I think the market is kind of priced in the situation with the U.S. and Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. I don't see oil. I can't imagine oil going to $100 a barrel. And $100 a barrel is not a very high price in oil these days. When you think about uh, you know, just the inflation of money, you know, $100 a barrel. I mean, we used to get to $100 a barrel at various uh weird periods of time, you know, 20 years ago. And that was something crazy. That was wow, that was an event. $100 a barrel for oil these days would not really be like some kind of catastrophic kind of move. A $200 barrel oil, you know, that would be something, you know. That would be a similar event to what $100 a barrel would have been like 20 years ago. Uh, just when you take uh just the price of money, the inflation over time. But I don't even see us getting to $100 a barrel. Having said that $100 a barrel is not much of a move, I can't imagine we're gonna get there. So this is one I would take the opportunity potentially because of the bump in volatility, because of this recent uh news in the Middle East. If there's gonna be some juicy options and the CL options, which is a big contract, I'd go to the micro crude, the MCL futures, and go sell especially some out-of-the-money calls. They're gonna be jacked, right? You're gonna have so much calls you right now. Volatility is high. You can go sell some crazy out-of-the-money calls for some juicy premiums. And if you can get a decent price on the puts, it might be worth selling some puts too, but definitely the call side of that trade is probably where you want to be. I have no idea where oil is gonna go eventually as far as up or down, but if you're gonna give me some really juicy premiums on the call side of that trade, it's probably something I would look at. We do have some earnings events for tomorrow. We had uh obviously a five banks report this morning. Tomorrow we got Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley's up eight dollars today, 3.6% up move. Now that's in conjunction with uh all the other banks having good earnings. Morgan Stanley's moving today with those kind of in sympathy. I'd be rank of 43. If I go into the August monthly cycle, the 38-day cycle, the mid-ass spreads are okay, 35 cent wide, which is not great, but it's not terribly wide on a $228 stock. I mean, if you're bullish, you could sell the 21 delta put, get a 355 credit on a buying power $2,700. You were wanted to be neutral, it'd be nice if they had $5 wide strikes. Because I don't really love like if I do a strangle, I don't want to be at 21 deltas. I'd like to be around 16 deltas. I gotta go all the way down to 13 deltas, so which is fine. Get a 189 credit on a buying power of 2000 on the 13 delta put, but I'm gonna add a 12 delta call as well. Gets me to 345 credit on a buying power reduction of 2300. I would say that's an okay trade, and the banks are not terribly volatile. They typically don't make big moves. None of the banks that reported yesterday really made much of a move, especially early in the day. They're starting to rally now. Um, the bidass spreads on that call pretty wide, 48 cents. That's the one thing. Morgan Stanley is not the most liquid, you know, it's got okay open interest, but it's not like a highly, highly traded company. I I think I'm gonna avoid that, but for those that were looking for earnings trade, you might can find something in Morgan Stanley. BlackRock reports tomorrow as well. BLK BlackRock, um, the option markets in it suck because BlackRock trades at $1,000 and $20, uh, yeah, yeah, $1028 a share. $1,028 a share. Because it's such a high-priced stock. You know, a lot of times that just dries up the option markets because most people can't afford a naked option. You can't go sell a naked put or a naked call on something that's trading a thousand dollars a share. It's just way too risky, way too much mind power. Even buying the options. I'd have to you know, buying the at-the-money call would cost me five thousand dollars in black rock. It's a very big product. So you'd have to do spreads, and you know, because of that, just not a lot of open interest. So this is not something I would trade. I the liquidity is gonna hurt you. You're gonna get terrible feels, just avoid it. But it does report, and the market will pay attention to what they report. Johnson Johnson also reports tomorrow morning. That's one of your kind of like dividend-paying stocks that people sometimes have in a passive long-term investment account. Not very sexy to trade, really doesn't trade much. You can see shares. Only 2.4 million shares have traded today. That's not a very big number. And the option markets are terrible. You can't really trade options in it. Uh, really wide bid as spreads, even though it's got decent open interest, uh, it's got a few thousand open interest on some strikes. The bid ass spreads are 50 cent wide, a buck 40 wide, buck eighty wide. Like it's some really wide bid as spreads. It makes it untradable, unfortunately. So I don't think I'm going to be playing any of those earnings. We do have more interesting earnings ahead the rest of the week. We have um United Airlines, I think reports. Um, I think we can play that tomorrow. And then Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix report later in the week. Those could be interesting. Netflix is definitely the most tradable out of that bunch as far as it's got good open interest, good liquidity. So if you're looking for any kind of earnings play this week, Netflix, I think, reports after the bill on Thursday, and I'll probably play that one. Alright. Last chance for any questions or comments from you guys in the YouTube chat. Get them in before we call it a day.

SPEAKER_00 27:58

As we watch this market slowly grind higher here. And right now the ES up 28, NASDAQ up 375, Russell up $9 on the day.

SPEAKER_01 28:18

Alright, guys, well, I appreciate you guys hanging out, and I will be back with you guys tomorrow for another market outlook live. Have fun trading, guys. Peace.