A SUPERSTORM that THE FED and YOU have NEVER Seen BEFORE...

Oil near $120. Wholesale inflation rising. The Fed turning more hawkish. This week’s market action may have sent one of the clearest warnings of 2026 so far.

In this Wall Street Truth Bombs weekly recap, Mark Malek breaks down why the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, rising producer prices, and the Federal Reserve’s shifting tone all fed into a fourth straight losing week for equities. While AI remained one of the few bullish themes, even that story faced geopolitical and national security risks.

If the market has been treating oil and the Fed like two separate stories, this video explains why they are actually the same story — and why that matters for your portfolio right now. Based on the recap, the biggest risk is a supply shock the Fed cannot fix, which leaves equities exposed if inflation stays hot and rate cuts disappear.

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Transcript

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I'm Mark Malik, founder of Wall Street Truth Bombs and CIO at Siebert Financial. This flash recap is sponsored by Seabert Financial. We're investing is for everyone. Now, let's break down the big themes that drove the markets this week and more importantly, why they matter for your money. This was a week that the Bulls tried to grab, and the Bears, they took it back hard. The major indexes closed lower for a four-straight week, with the SP 500 touching four-month lows by Friday, and the Dow Jones falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time this year. The setup was classic. Monday and Tuesday, it looked like a recovery. Wednesday through Friday, well, it looked like a route. And the reason it fell apart tells you everything about where we are right now. Now let's get to the themes. Theme number one, the energy shock that is rewriting the macro playbook. The dominant narrative of this week was an oil price surge, unlike anything markets have dealt with in years. Brent crude surged toward 120 bucks per barrel during the week, its highest level since 2022, as the Iran war triggered a near total shutdown of tanker traffic through the now very well-known Strait of Hormuz. The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows. And this week, Qatar's largest gas field came under attack, and Kuwait refineries were hit. And traders stopped asking if this is a problem and started pricing in how bad it gets. Energy stocks have become the only game in town. XLE is up 27% year to date as of Friday. ExxonMobil has surged 30% and Chevron is up 20%, while the rest of the market is literally bleeding. Higher oil is not just a pump price problem. It's a tax on every consumer, every business, every earnings forecast in America. Now, theme number two, that is the Fed's impossible position. The energy shock alone would have been a challenging situation enough. What made this week truly dangerous for equities was the Federal Reserve confirming on Wednesday what the bond market had already been pricing in for weeks. The producer price index for February 26, released the same morning as the Fed decision, came in at seven tenths of a percent for the month. That was more than double the three-tenths of a percent consensus and pushed the 12-month wholesale inflation reading to 3.4%. That is now the largest year-over-year advance since February 2025. By 2 p.m., the Fed delivered its verdict. Rates stay at 3.5 to 3.75% for the consecutive second month. Now, that was not a surprise, and the dot plot now shows just one cut in 2026, down from where markets expected literally two or three cuts just 90 days ago. Seven of the 19 FOMC members now see no cuts at all this year. And the Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%. That should not surprise you. And then PAL said something that got buried in the headlines, but shook every serious portfolio manager in the room, present company included. When asked if a rate hike would come back on the table, he did not rule it out. If you're finding value in this, do me a favor, hit that subscribe button and turn on notifications so you never miss these weekly breakdowns. Better yet, come back every day because we drop these videos every single day. You don't have to wait for the recap to find out what's going on with the market. Okay, now we go on to theme number three. AI remains a bullcase, but geopolitical risks are closing in. The one storyline that cut against the bearish grain this week was artificial intelligence. Nvidia's annual GDC developer conference kicked off on Monday in San Jose. And CEO Jensen Huang did not disappoint. He unveiled the Vera Rubin platform. That's the next generation AI chip architecture, delivering 10 times the performance per watt compared to Grace Blackwell. That's their current chip that everyone talks about. And projected that cumulative AI infrastructure orders from 25 through 27 could reach, get this,$1 trillion. That is a staggering number and it underpins the bull thesis for the entire AI supply chain. But on Thursday, a federal criminal case involving the co-founder of one of AI's most important server manufacturers and the alleged illegal export of$2.5 billion in NVIDIA chips to China reminded investors that AI infrastructure build-out is not just a tech story, it's a national security story as well. Investing in your future doesn't have to feel intimidating. At Seabert, you're never on this journey alone. Our team of advisors, brokers, investment managers, and insurance professionals is with you every step of the way. We believe your financial plan should be as unique as you are, not a one-size-fits-all template. As a leading brokerage and financial services firm, we tailor our solutions to your goals, your timeline, and the life you're building. If you're ready to take the next step toward true financial freedom, visit siebert.com to learn more. Now, here's the through line connecting everything this week. The Iran war is driving oil prices higher. Clearly, oil is pushing wholesale inflation higher as well. And higher inflation is forcing the Fed to pull back on rate cut expectations. That chain reaction is the single biggest threat to the equity market's current valuation framework. Growth stocks were priced for a world where rates were coming down and the macro picture was clearing up. That world is looking increasingly distant. And the fourth consecutive losing week is the market telling you that it knows that really, really well. So here's the bottom line this week. Stagflation is back. It's a serious market discussion. And the Fed just told you it cannot rescue equity markets when oil is near 120 bucks and wholesale inflation is running at 3.4%. The energy shock from the Iran war, combined with the central bank that is now discussing hikes instead of cuts, is a combination that historically does not end well for equities. Watch the Strait of Hormuz. Watch the Fed speakers who come out of blackout next week. They're going to be all over. And watch the SP 500's four-month lows as the line in the sand. Here's the truth bomb for the week. The market spent all week watching oil and the Fed as if they were separate stories, but they are the same story: a supply shock that the Fed has no tool to fix and no choice but to stay hawkish on. And when the central bank cannot come to the rescue, history says equities do not just pull back, they look for a new floor. And nobody knows where that floor is right now. Make sure you smash that like button and subscribe so you never miss the truth about these markets. I'm Mark Malik, and this quick recap is sponsored by Sieber Financial, where investing is for everyone. Tune in every day to Wall Street Truth Bombs because I drop them here before the market figures them out.