Layoffs Are SURGING… But NEWS Headlines Say “EVERYTHING IS FINE”

The latest JOLTS report says the labor market is “unchanged”… but that headline is hiding a much bigger story.

In this breakdown, we go inside the real data:
Why job openings are quietly declining year-over-year
The truth behind the so-called “hire surge”
The alarming rise in layoffs (especially white-collar)
Why the quits rate is flashing a recession warning

This isn’t stability… this is a trend shift.
If you’re watching markets, the Fed, or the economy — this is the data that actually matters.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Here's a bomb blast. The Joltz job number just dropped. And every anchor on financial television right now is reading you the same headline. Job openings, unchanged at 6.9 million. Here is a truth bomb, though. Unchange is not at all the same thing as stable. And what the interior data in this morning's report is showing is not stability. It's a labor market that's quietly cracking while the headline number sits frozen in place. By the end of this bomb blast, you will know exactly what the three interior signals in today's Jolts Report are actually telling you. Why the higher bounce that every anchor is celebrating this morning is not what it looks like. And what you need to watch between now and Friday's April payrolls number to know whether this market is cooling or cracking. It's important, so you better pay attention. Now, here's what the financial media is going to tell you is happening this morning. Job openings for March 26 came in at 6.9 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says the number was little changed from February. And on top of that, hires jumped. Total hires in March came in at 5.554 million. That's a gain of 655,000 positions. In a single month, the hires rate went from 3.1% to 3.5%. Now, on the surface, that looks like a rebound. The story writes itself. Openings help, hires bounce, the labor market is resilient. The Fed can stay put. See you tomorrow. That's the story. And here is what's wrong with that story. The hires number that they're celebrating this morning bounced from the lowest level since the economy shut down in March of 2020. You don't get credit for bouncing off a crisis floor. You get credit for getting back to where you were before. And we are nowhere close to back. Let me take you inside the data. First, if you like this type of client content, please click like and consider subscribing. It's important to be in the know, my friends, and you know that this is how you do it. Okay, now let me show you what is actually inside this morning's Jolts Report. Start with the headline number itself. The BLS says job openings were little changed at 6.9 million. What they mean is 6.866 million, which is not unchanged. It's down 56,000 from February's revised 6.922 million. And here's the comparison I want you to hold on to. March 2025, one year ago, job openings were 6.952 million. March 26 this morning, 6.866 million. That's a year over year decline. I did the math for you. The headline says flat, the calendar says the trend is moving in the wrong direction. Now, let me address the hires bounce because the media is going to make this top line story and they're going to get it exactly wrong. Yes, total hires went from 4.899 million in February to 5.554 million in March. That is a 655,000 job gain. That sounds great. Here's the context that changes everything. February's 4.899 million was the lowest hiring figure recorded since the economy shut down in March of 2020. When you bottom out that hard, any bounce looks like a recovery. But 5.554 million in total hires is still far below the 7 million plus levels we saw when the labor market was actually healthy. This is a bounce off a crisis floor. It's not a trend reversal. It's what happens when a number gets so bad that the next print has nowhere to go but up. Now look at the layoffs number. This is the interior signal the media will not lead with today. I promise you. Total layoffs and discharges in March came in at 1.867 million. That is up 153,000 jobs from February's 1.714 million. And here's the year-over-year picture. March 2025, 1.595 million in layoffs. March 2026, 1.867 million. That's that's bigger, just in case you weren't paying attention. And that's an increase of 272,000 or 17% in 12 months. You can't call a labor market stable when layoffs are running 17% above where they were a year ago. Now, if we go deeper into the layoff data and it gets more specific and possibly even more alarming, professional and business services, meaning the white-collar economy, saw layoffs spike 99,000 in a single month from 428,000 in February to 527,000 in March. That sector doesn't produce those kind of one-month moves without structural pressure underneath it. And for establishments with 5,000 or more employees, the largest company in America, the companies in America, the layoff rate doubled in one month from four-tenths of a percent in February to eight tenths of a percent in March. When big companies start accelerating cuts, the downstream effect hits small businesses and consumer spending within two to three quarters. You can pay attention to that and you can check me on that. It always does. Now, the quits rate. And this is the number that should be headlining every financial show this morning. And it really isn't. You can check me on that too. The quits rate in March was 2%. That sounds like stability until you look at where it was in February. February, the quits rate was 1.9%, 1.9%. Workers quit when they feel confident. They stay when they feel trapped. A 1.9% quits rate is the level you see at the edge of a recession, my friends. Not in the middle of what the financial media keeps calling a resilient labor market. March ticked back to 2%, but the fact that it briefly touched 1.9% is the canary and the coal mine. And I'm watching that number very, very carefully. And I reported it to you here last month as well. Year over year, total quits are down 285,000. That's not contentment. That is fear wearing the mask of stability. And one more interior data point that nobody's going to talk to you about today. Federal government hires in March came in at 19,000. That's down from 26,000 in February, down from 28,000 a year ago. Federal job openings fell to 76,000, down from 92,000 in February and 122,000 in March 2025. Federal government is not just slowing. It's not just slowing, it's hiring. It is in contraction. And those workers who are not being hired or who are being let go are not being absorbed by the private sector fast enough to show up anywhere except the unemployment data and the months ahead. Let me give you three specific signals to watch from here on, because data without a framework is really just noise. Signal number one, Friday's April NFP, that's the non-farm payrolls number, is the verdict on this morning's report. The March hires bounce in jolts. If it's real, it should show up in Friday's April nonfarm payrolls. If payrolls disappoint on Friday while jolts hires bounce in March, that tells you that the bounce was a statistical artifact, a one-month noise event inside a deteriorating trend. If both jolts and payrolls are weak in the same week, well, you have the first confirmed two data point convergence of a labor market transition. Two major government data releases moving in the same direction as in the same week is not noise at all. That is a signal. Watch for the divergence or the confirmation on Friday morning. You bet I'm going to be talking about it on Friday. Now, single signal number two, professional and services layoffs. That sector spiked 90 at 99 by 99,000, excuse me, in one month and is now running at 527,000. White collar layoffs cut deeper into consumer spending than retail or hospitality layoffs because those workers have mortgages and car payments and retirement accounts. They stop funding when that happens. When professional services layoffs accelerate, the slowdown is not a headline in six months, is a reality in your investment account in three. Watch that subtable and every jolt's release from here on in. If it prints above 500,000 again in April, the trend has serious uh has actually been confirmed. Now on to signal number three that I want you to watch. That's the quits rate. It's sitting at 2% right now after briefly touching 1.9% in February, as I just told you before. If the next jolt release for April shows the quits rate back at 1.9 or below on a sustained basis, that is the line in the sand, my friends. Below 1.9% historically precedes consumer spending contractions by one to two quarters. The quits rate is the most honest signal in the entire data set because it's driven entirely by worker behavior, not employer announcements or government estimates. Workers vote with their feet. Right now, they're not moving. And when workers stop moving, the economy is not far behind. Now, put all this inside the Fed picture. Jerome Powell is gone. Kevin Warsh has already pre-announced he will not cut rates in a stagflation environment. Meanwhile, Brent Crude is still at around 114. National gas prices are 448, and the labor market is now showing in confirmed BLS data releases this morning, declining year over year openings, layoffs running 17% above last March, white-collar cuts accelerating, a quits rate that briefly touched the lowest level ever recorded, and federal employment picture in contraction. The Fed can't fight both fires simultaneously. Warsh has told you which fire he's gonna fight. The labor market is on its own. It's unfortunate, but it's a fact. So your truth bomb for today is this. This morning's Jolt headline says unchanged. The interior data says job openings are declining year over year. Layoffs are running 17% above last March. White collar layoffs spiked 99,000 in one month. Quits rate briefly touched the lowest level ever recorded. And hires bounce came off a COVID era floor. Unchanged is what the headline says. Cracking is what the trend shows. And in a labor market, the trend always wins. There's no free lunch on Wall Street, my friends. Join me every single day on Wall Street Truth Bomb where I drop them right here before the market figures. My dear Truth Bombs community, we're rolling out a new live stream designed to keep you ahead of the market. It's called the Radar Report. And it comes out every Thursday at 4:30 p.m. EST, Wall Street time. No spin, no delay, just the raw analysis you know you get from me. The shadow data, Fed moves, inflation shocks, geopolitical risks. Who knows what I'm gonna show you next? We're gonna decode it as it happens. And this time, you're gonna be part of it. Join me, ask me your questions, and challenge the narrative because that is how we all win together. Because in this market, if you're reacting late, you're already losing. First live streams May 7th, 4 30 p.m. Wall Street time. Don't miss it, guys. I can't wait to see you there.