The Consumer is OFFICIALLY DEAD Based ON BREAKING REPORTS....

Uber stock jumped after earnings, but buried underneath the headline numbers was a much bigger warning about the American consumer. In this video, we break down Uber’s earnings, the CEO’s macro warning, collapsing consumer sentiment, rising credit card stress, Shopify and PayPal signals, and why Wall Street may be ignoring one of the most important consumer cracks of this earnings season. The market is pricing in recovery before the consumer has actually recovered — and the next retail reports could decide whether investors finally wake up.

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Transcript

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Uber stock just jumped 10% on an earnings report where the CEO warned you that the American consumer is breaking. Only one of those things is true. By the end of this video, you'll understand exactly why today's Uber earnings report contains the most important and explosive consumer warnings of the entire earnings season and why the market completely missed it because the data is hiding underneath the guidance beat. It tells you something about the American economy that every investor needs to hear right now. So pay attention. Here's what happened this morning. Uber reported Q126 earnings. Gross bookings came in at 53.7 billion bucks, up 25% year over year, and was ahead of the 52.8 billion estimate. The guidance came in above expectations. The stock jumped 10%. Financial Twitter lit up with buy calls. And the crowd completely missed what the CEO actually said. Here is the exact quote from Dara Hoshahi said on the earnings call. He described what Uber faced in Q1 as a, and I'm reading directly, quote, complex macro backdrop marked by weather disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and gas price volatility. He then went further. Pump prices across the United States have surged roughly 50% since American military operations in Iran commenced in February, 50% in three months. Total revenue came in at$13.2 billion against an estimate of$13.29 billion amiss. Gap earnings per share, 13 cents against an estimate of 70 cents. That's not a rounding error, guys. That's an 81% miss on the bottom line. The market saw the booking beat and the guidance line and they bought 10%. It didn't stop to ask why the CEO of the company that moves 150 million people a week was using the words complex macro backdrop in the same breath as a revenue miss. If you like this type of content, guys, please click like and consider subscribing. It's important to be in the know. And this is how you do it. Okay, here is the shadow data that I love to bring out. The number that doesn't fit on a CNBC banner, but changes everything about how you read this market. 49.8. 49.8. That is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April 2026. And before I tell you what it means, let me tell you what it is. The Michigan survey has been running for 74 years, 74 years of data through the Cold War, through stagflation, through the 2008 financial crisis, through the COVID pandemic. Remember that? I know you do, through the 2022 inflation spike that had everyone screaming about the cost of eggs. In all 74 years, through every crisis every American investor has ever lived through, consumer sentiment has never been this low. 49.8 is the lowest reading in the history of the survey, not close to the lowest, the lowest. And here is what makes that number more alarming. Not less, it's not partisan. Sentiment fell across all demographics, all income levels, all ages, all political affiliations. Believe me, I tracked that stuff. The survey director noted that consumers across the board are blaming the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy. Year ahead inflation expectations jumped from 3.8% in March to 4.7% in April, the largest one-month spike since the tariff shock of April 2025. Consumers are not just feeling stressed, they're actively expecting prices to get worse. And Uber is not the only company that's sending this signal right now, guys. Shopify reported Q1 revenue of up 34%, and that's a pretty strong number, then guided Q2 to growth in the high 20s, a meaningful deceleration. The stock dropped 8%, and Shopify, remember, processes more than$100 billion in gross merchandise volume every quarter. Their platform powers millions of merchants selling to millions of consumers. When Shopify tells you that spending is slowing, that's not a Shopify story, guys. That is a consumer story wearing a Shopify uniform. PayPal beat estimates and fell nearly 10%. Their CEO cited a quote, complex and dynamic operating environment. Three different companies, three different sectors of the economy, three different executives using three different sets of words to say the exact same thing. And then there's the credit card data sitting underneath all of it. American consumers are currently carrying$1.277 trillion in credit card balances, the highest level since the New York Federal Reserve began tracking this data back in 1999 when my son was only one year old. 90-day serious delinquencies, the point at which a debt is statistically unlikely to be repaid, have climbed to 12.7% of outstanding balances. That's the highest level since 2011. The year America was still digging out from the financial crisis. Higher income consumers are still spending big time. Lower income borrowers are rolling into serious delinquency at a pace that echoes the post-crisis years. The K-shaped economy is no longer a theoretical framework, guys. It's in the data. Here's what all of this means for your portfolio and why the Uber stock popping 10% is actually the most dangerous part of this entire story. Pay attention. When a market ignores the CEO quote, ignores the revenue miss, ignores the 81% EPS miss, and buys 10% because it liked one line in the guidance, is telling you something very specific about its current state of mind. It's telling you it is pricing in the resolution before the resolution exists. It priced in the Iran peace deal before the deal was signed. Now it's pricing in a consumer recovery before the consumer has actually recovered. The market has one eye on the future and both hands covering the present. Here's what you want to watch over the next two weeks: retail reports. We got Home Depot, we got Walmart. That's a biggie. I love watching that one. Target. These are the companies that'll tell you what the American consumer is actually spending on at the shelf level, not what they are booking on the app. If the Michigan sentiment data is right, if Shopify is right, if the credit card data is right, those retail numbers will confirm it. And when retailers confirm what Uber and Shopify and Michigan and$1.277 trillion in credit card debt are already telling us, the market will not be able to look away. The SP 500 is at a record high, guys. And the consumer underneath it just posted the worst sentiment reading in 74 years of recorded history. That's not a contradiction that you can sustain indefinitely. Either the market comes down to meet the consumer, or the consumer has to come up to meet the market. One of those is a lot more likely than the other, and I'm sure you will agree. So your truth bomb for today is this Uber's CEO just told you that the American consumer is getting crushed by 50% higher gas prices. The Michigan sentiment index is at the lowest level in 74 years of data, and the market bought the stock 10% higher because it liked one line in the guidance. That's not optimism, that is willful blindness. And the retail numbers coming over the next two weeks will decide whether the market finally has to open its eyes. Join me every day at Wall Street Truth Bombs, where I drop them right here before the market figures them out. My dear Truth Bombs community, we're rolling out a new live stream designed to keep you ahead of the market. It's called the Radar Report, and it comes out every Thursday at 4:30 PM EST, Wall Street time. No spin, no delay, just the raw analysis you know you get from me. The shadow data, Fed moves, inflation shocks, geopolitical risks. Who knows what I'm gonna show you next? We're gonna decode it as it happens. And this time you're gonna be part of it. Join me, ask me your questions, and challenge the narrative because that is how we all win together. Because in this market, if you're reacting late, you're already losing. First live streams May 7th, 4 30 p.m. Wall Street time. Don't miss it, guys. I can't wait to see you there.