The AI POWER GRAB Has Begun... What It Means For Your Portfolio!!

The biggest AI story isn't a new model—it's who may end up owning part of it.

Reports suggest OpenAI is discussing giving the U.S. government a 5% equity stake. At the same time, Washington has already demonstrated its willingness to intervene in AI model releases and exports.

Could regulators become shareholders?

In today's Wall Street Truth Bomb, we break down what this could mean for investors, AI competition, market structure, and why this may be one of the most overlooked risks facing the AI sector.

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Truthbombs videos are for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed by Mark Malek or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Siebert Financial. These videos do  not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Listeners and viewers should consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

The government just proposed to own a piece of the most powerful AI company on earth. Everyone's calling it generous. Well, I'm going to call it something completely different and a heck of a lot more accurate. By the end of this video, you're going to understand exactly why a 5% government equity stake in OpenAI is one of the most consequential market structure shifts in decades, what it means for your portfolio right now, as we speak. Now, here is what you've been told. The Financial Times just reported that OpenAI has begun preliminary discussions to hand the US government a 5% equity stake in the company. At OpenAI's last private valuation of $852 billion, set during its record-breaking $122 billion funding round in March, that slice is worth roughly $42.6 billion. Wow. Sam uh CEO Sam Altman has framed the proposal as a way to share the upside of the AI boom with the American public. The structure Altman is proposing is modeled on Alaska's permanent fund. That's the state-owned corporation that invests oil revenues and pays annual dividends to Alaska residents. The broader vision would have Washington holding 5% stakes across all the leading US AI developers, potentially including even Google, Meta, and Anthropic, of course. Altman has been pitching this concept directly to the Trump administration since early 2025. It's not a brand new idea. It's an idea, though, that has now taken on some very specific urgency. And on the surface, sounds like capitalism at its most elegant. The private sector builds something extraordinary. It finds a way to let the public participate in the gains. Who could argue with that? This is supposed to be the dream. And I can argue with it and I will. But first, let me give you the context that makes this story very different from the headline. Pay attention. But first, if you like this type of content, my friends, please click like and don't forget to subscribe. It's important to be in the know, and this is exactly how you do it. Now, here is what has been happening while these equity discussions were come were underway. And this is the part that nobody in the mainstream media is connecting for you right now. Just over two weeks ago, the administration imposed export controls on Anthropic's two most capable models. That's called the Claude Fable 5 and Mythos V, citing national security concerns. Anthropic was told effectively overnight to cut off all access for all foreign nationals, including its own employees who are not U.S. citizens. The NSA, which had been actively using the Mythos 5 build, was pretty much caught in that same dragnet. This marks the first time the United States has applied export controls directly to an AI model rather than to the hardware powering it. A landmark regulatory precedent. The restrictions were lifted, though, on July 1st, after Anthropic spent 19 days in emergency negotiations with the Commerce Department, ultimately agreeing to deploy new safety classifiers, submit to government model evaluation, and accept an explicit warning that restrictions could be reimposed if circumstances change or if Anthropic fails to adhere to its commitments. Meanwhile, OpenAI was separately asked to delay the full public launch of its GPT 5.6 model at the government's request. The first time the U.S. government has preemptively asked an American AI company to restrict a model launch before release. Two leading AI companies, two government interventions in model distribution, one equity proposal on the table. You don't need to be paranoid to notice the pattern here, do you? You just need to be paying attention. Now, I want to be precise here. The equity proposal and the model restrictions are legally distinct events. I am not drawing a straight line between a model ban and an equity concession. But what I'm saying is this the environment in which these discussions are unfolding is not a voluntary marketplace, it is a regulatory pressure cooker. And a regulator with profit participation operates with a fundamentally different set of incentives than a disinterested regulator. Here's the shadow data that the mainstream narrative is missing. You know I love the shadow data. Go back to the Celect boom of the late 1990s. I experienced that front and center. I was in it. Competitive local exchange carriers, that's what CLEC stands for. Private companies that these were private companies that gained access to incumbent telecom infrastructure through regulatory mandate. Private capital flooded guys into that sector, not because the economics were fundamentally sound, but because regulatory access was the actual product being sold. The companies that won were not the best operators. They were the best at navigating the regulatory environment. When the regulatory tide turned, the capital literally evaporated. We now call it the dot-com bust, but it was very much a part of the C LEC overbuild. But the telecom implosion inside was a specifically, uh it was specifically a regulatory access story. And it took a decade, literally at least, to untangle. AI infrastructure spending today is being priced in part on government relationships. The companies with the best government contracts, the best security clearances, the best regulatory access are commanding the highest multiples. That's not purely a technology trade. That is a regulatory access trade. And those trades carry a risk profile that is very different from what the market is currently pricing. I want to ask you something directly. If the government owns 5% of OpenAI, what does the government regulate? This is not a rhetorical question. It's a structural one. A shareholder doesn't want the company it owns to lose market share. A regulator is supposed to make decisions that are good for the entire market, even when those decisions may hurt individual companies. When those two roles live in the same entity, well, you don't get better regulation or better investing. You get muddier versions of both in service of whoever holds power at the very moment. And history is not ambiguous on this point, my friends. Government ownership of stakes and industries is it also regulates, produces regulatory capture. It produces political favoritism, it produces market distortion that takes years, sometimes even decades, to correct. The early telecom era, the savings, savings and loan crisis. Look virtually, look at virtually any industry where government sat simultaneously on both sides of the table. The outcomes are consistent. And my friends, in case you didn't know, they're not good. Here is what this means for your portfolio. And it matters right now. AI is the most important technology investment theme of this generation. Full stop. The companies building it have created trillions in market value using private capital, venture funds, institutional money, and yes, retail investors like you and me. That model works because the government, in theory, stays neutral. It sets rules, it enforces them. It doesn't pick sides. The moment the government becomes a shareholder in open AI, it is no longer neutral. It has $42.6 billion worth of reasons to want OpenAI to succeed. And it's already demonstrated with the anthropic export controls that it can pull competitors' products off the market literally, literally overnight. I'm not saying open AI is a bad investment. I'm not saying the equity proposal is corrupt, but what I am saying is that the structural risk of owning AI companies in an environment where the government is both a regulator and potential co-investor is now meaningfully higher than it was just six months ago. The concentration of regulatory power inside the same entity that owns the asset is a risk that the market has clearly not fully priced in just yet. Watch the next six months carefully. If Washington moves forward with 5% stakes across multiple AI companies, if those companies continue to receive favorable treatment in government contracts and regulatory decisions, well, you'll start to see a bifurcation in the AI market. The government aligned players will look very different from the non-aligned players. And the non-aligned players, those are the ones who don't play the equity game, will face a regulatory environment that the market has also not quite yet modeled. The core principle that built this country's economy in 250 years, free markets, private capital, and the rule of law is not patriotic rhetoric. It's the actual mechanism by which the AI revolution is happening. Venture capital funded it. Private enterprise built it. Competition, competition is driving it forward at a pace no government program could ever replicate. And the moment you introduce a government shareholder into that equation, well, you change the math in ways that are very, very hard to reverse. Sam Haltman is an extraordinarily shrewd operator. If he genuinely believes a public wealth fund is the right architecture for democratizing AI's financial gains, I can follow that argument on its merits. But those merits need to be evaluated in the clear light of day and not inside a negotiation where the other party has already demonstrated that it can flip a switch and pull your biggest competitor's product from the market overnight. Wow. So your truth bomb for today is this the government owning a 5% of open AI does not make AI safer. It makes the regulator richer. And when the regulator is richer, the regulation, well, it bends. Join me every day for Wall Street Truth Bombs, where I drop them right here before the market figures them out.