Only 10% EV Market Share by 2023?! with Analyst Cliff Banks

"We'd  need a World War II strategy to pull this off."

Cliff Banks, founder of AUTOVATE and The Banks Report, has spent a decade bringing automotive investors, dealers, and tech firms together to understand the role of capital in retail transformation. Unlike many EV optimists, Cliff brings a decidedly measured view—one shaped by capital flows, manufacturing realities, and political headwinds. His forecast for 2030 EV adoption? 10-15%. Not 50%.

What we cover:

The manufacturing reality check: Where will the plants come from to hit 50% EV adoption? Ford and GM are getting criticized, but could they have done it differently?

China's unfair advantage: Why their EV dominance is a national strategy (like World War II mobilization), not a legacy automaker innovation story

Detroit vs. Phoenix whiplash: Living between two markets shows wildly different adoption curves and consumer mindsets

Political polarization hurt EVs: The conversation became politicized from day one, damaging innovation and development

Tesla's market share rebound: Despite Musk's White House ties, Cliff predicts Tesla gains share in 2026 as political affiliation recedes

Autonomous + EV = the real demand driver: Rivian's CEO predicts autonomous features will be expected by 2030. If true, EVs will surge because autonomy requires electric platforms

Used EV growth is guaranteed: 5x growth over the last 5 years, another 5x coming regardless of Trump administration policies

This is a capital markets lens on the EV transition—grounded, skeptical, and deeply informed by what investors are actually doing (versus what regulators or advocates want them to do).

About Cliff: Founder of AUTOVATE, a premier conference for automotive investors and dealer executives, and creator of The Banks Report. Based between Detroit and Phoenix, Cliff has been tracking capital flows in automotive retail for over a decade.

🔗 Learn more about Recurrent: https://www.recurrentauto.com
 🔗 Learn more about AUTOVATE: https://www.autovate.org

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Self-driving capabilities or autonomous capabilities are going to be a feature that's just expected in vehicles by 2030. Autonomous and EVs pretty much go hand in hand. I don't know if you can have real autonomy without it being an EV.

SPEAKER_00 0:17

Welcome to EV Insider by Recurrent, where we make it easier to buy and sell electric cars by giving you access to leaders from across the industry. Let's get started.

SPEAKER_02 0:28

I was so impressed at Autovate in the in September at like just the fact that all of the strategic decision makers at so many the leading industry companies were there and also talking really openly about how they're thinking about the market future. Right. Super, super cool event.

SPEAKER_01 0:46

Right. Yeah, and we've we've been at it for it'll be our tenth year this coming September. So I think we've figured out a model that works for us. You know, we're very protective of the audience, obviously, uh, and um intentionally so um and of the content in terms of not allowing sales pitches uh or even presentations as mainly conversations, as you know. I mean, you contributed greatly. You helped kick us off this.

SPEAKER_02 1:12

I was gonna say, hey, you're protective of the audience and the content, but you let me in there. So I'm not that protective.

SPEAKER_01 1:19

Big part, big part. I mean, but it's a big, you know, you're a big part of the conversation. And you're you've been one of the ones driving that in recent years. And you know, I think you might for me, even though we may disagree some on numbers or whatever, you're you're still one of the primary experts that I pay attention to in the space. So yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:36

Um, thank you. So one of the things we we got uh we did in our little debate in uh in our conversation in September was what the what the EV market, what EV adoption will look like in 2030. And I sort of like my my signature move right now, my signature claim is gonna be above 50 percent, and there were gasps from the audience. Yes, like I mean people were like, yeah, oh you know what's what's your view on this? Like, where do you come out on like EV sales in 2030? What do you think?

SPEAKER_01 2:07

Yeah, I well, I think with with the Trump administration still being in play through the through 2028, we're gonna have uh some challenges getting anywhere close. And I think right now what we're seeing is a pullback from many of the prognostications or even expectations that some of the automakers had. You know, things things could change. I mean, China coming in could change the equation considerably, but that doesn't look like it's gonna happen for a while. I'll tell you, I uh I've at a dinner, I think I mentioned this a couple times here. I I was at a dinner at uh in Vegas at NEDA five, six years ago now, and that question came up, and my answer was ten, fifteen percent at the most. I s I pretty much still hold to that number. Um I think what we're seeing is a re-evaluation of where that market is really going to be. And now the product plans are and manufacturing plans, and that's a big part of this too, Scott, is where is the manufacturing gonna come from to hit that 50%? Um the you know, the the vastly different plants, different type plants. I I just I think it's gonna be a long game. The only way we could pull this off is if we adopted a World War II strategy in that we're all in as a nation, companies have put you know put aside what they're doing and go all in on on the you know on the EV.

SPEAKER_02 3:40

Invest in in training, invest in tools, invest in infrastructure, and then by the way, we're not gonna give you right very many cars. Right. Uh oh right, right.

SPEAKER_01 3:49

Yeah. Uh so now you're so what do you do as a dealer? If the dealer plays a big role. And could they have could the manufacturer have I mean, could there have been more EVs sold if more dealers had been all in? Yeah, but I don't know how many. I mean, I I don't think it would have made a big difference. Because I don't think there were that many people coming in and asking either. That that were serious.

SPEAKER_02 4:14

Yeah, yeah. I I I do think it depends on the market though. Um for sure about about how many people are walking in. I just had a conversation with a dealer in the Dallas Fort Worth area who franchise dealer group, yeah. He said that 50 to 60 percent of all their use used sales this year were electric. And I was like, This is in Texas. Are you kidding me? Yeah, yeah, like that just blew my mind. I I expect that in Seattle where I live, or in LA, but in Texas, really, he's like, Yeah, we're selling hundreds a month.

SPEAKER_01 4:48

Yeah, yeah. So I I mean there's I would see somewhat of a market, but again, pricing probably played a huge role in that. Yeah. Also, I mean, because yeah, obviously those incentives were very good, and these EVs, once they would drive off the lot, you know, I mean, they're they get pretty, you know, the DVD, I don't want to see lose their value, but yeah, I guess that's essentially what happens.

SPEAKER_02 5:12

Uh well he was specifically talking about the used EV sector and feels like yeah, and how that feels like because of the higher depreciation that we've seen on the new ones, like he could sell a ton of used cars, three-year-old used cars at twenty thousand dollars. Like, that's an incredible with a lot of cool technology. It's an incredible deal. And frankly, like even after the expiration of the of the um tax credits in uh, you know, uh on September 30th, like the used EV prices have come down even more. So, like that that parade is continuing.

SPEAKER_01 5:46

One other thing that's interesting, you know, we've seen some stories over the last couple of weeks about EV sales or EV leases. I think JD Power came out with this. You know, the the EVs coming off-lease are going to be a record amount next year, and what is that gonna do? Probably not a whole lot because the number of sales is haven't haven't been there.

SPEAKER_02 6:09

So it's probably gonna be a well, I mean, so just to to get the data out there, over 2026-2027, there will be a million off-lease EVs coming back into the market.

SPEAKER_01 6:19

Over the two years, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 6:21

Over two years. It's six, it's like uh it's six hundred and fifty, and maybe it's more than that, but it's like four hundred, I think, and six hundred and fifty over the next two years. Um, in terms of overall supply, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 6:34

But divide that by the number of dealers that are selling cars, included the including the independent use car dealers, and yeah, and rotten that out over several months, it's still a pretty pretty low. I mean, it's not going to impact pricing, I don't think.

SPEAKER_02 6:48

Right.

SPEAKER_01 6:49

That's interesting.

SPEAKER_02 6:50

So at the automate conference in September, um, I was like the only person who was like a dedicated EB sort of like, you know, speaker, right? But it came up electric vehicles came out in nearly everyone's conversation. Yeah. As you sit back and reflect, like what were the big themes that you felt like you heard from everyone about electric vehicles and where the market goes in the next couple years?

SPEAKER_01 7:15

Well, I think we all at the time knew the yeah, we we all knew that the tax credits were going away. Right. Yeah, we were like two weeks before the end of the tax credit. So yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, maybe a week before. We um so I think the at least the general conversations throughout it was that EVs probably over the next few years it was gonna be a challenging market. Um and I think you know, you like I said, you you gotta you know run the Trump administration through that filter. You've gotta you have to look at the manufacturing capabilities capacity. And we're seeing, you know, we're seeing the re the retraction or retreat from the manufacturing and then even the the building of the plants.

SPEAKER_02 8:05

Yeah, I was gonna say, what do you think the odds are that the automakers overcorrect to reduce supply to below where the natural market demand is? Because it's hard making these really long-term investments, and I feel like the federal policy has been pinging back and forth like so I feel for them, but like what do you like? Do you think that this looks this right now is an overcorrection, and all of a sudden we're in a supply-constrained world for you know a couple of years to come?

SPEAKER_01 8:33

Uh yeah, probably, because I think uh you know, it's gonna take Ford a while for it to launch its quote unquote Model T moment that it announced a few months ago on the EV side, um with a moderately priced thirty thousand dollar pickup truck. And there's no guarantee they're even gonna get it right on that. Um yeah, I I think yeah, I think that could happen. But that's not a bad thing to have more demand and supply. Especially if you're a dealer. I mean you yeah, you that's true, you would be able to you know make make more money on that. So uh I and look, overcorrecting, I mean, it's not the first time it's a manufacturer would have overcorrected one way or the other on anything.

SPEAKER_02 9:29

I mean, you know, so I yeah, I just feel like like over the past sort of seven years of of ev of the EV market, like it's just been uh one series of overcorrections after another from just about everybody, you know, like both directions, you know. Like I mean, I'm gonna coin this uh the the bolt index of like every time they they say we're gonna kill the bolt, that's a sign that like EV sales are about to go crazy, and every time they say we're going all in on the bolt, that's a sign that EV sales are about to drop. It's just this worst timing.

SPEAKER_01 10:03

Yeah. I yeah. It leaves, I'll tell you, it does leave some of the these automakers in the quandary like for it. I mean, because they have to uh now they do they have to really have two plants. I mean two two drivetrains. I mean you you can't, you know, you gotta have the EV and you gotta have the ice engine or hybrid now. I think it was where everyone's going. Which means Toy Dog was right all along with their strategy, I guess. I I think it's a shame. I you know, as I look back on this, and you know I've talked about this, I do think it's it's a shame that the conversation on EVs when it started became such a politically polarizing conversation from the work go. And and I think that hurt um that hurt our development and uh progression and innovation in Space. Certainly more and more people are talking about uh you know, like GM's cruise, Ford's blue cruise or whatever they call it, um you know, abilities, you know, Tesla's continuing to move forward with FSD uh with true believers and rightfully so. I have a colleague here, I mean Scottsdale, who swears by it. I mean so I mean I've got people telling me they'll uh take their kids to school, I mean, and the car they never touch the steering wheel and the controls. Uh so now so w what does that have to do with uh EVs? Well uh autonomous and EVs pretty much go hand in hand. I I don't know if you can have real autonomy without it being an EV vehicle. So what does that do? I mean, does that does that change the the dynamic? Uh maybe, but then again that but then again that's a market-based change. It's not a regular government regulation that's not artificially driven, that is the consumer demand wanting that.

SPEAKER_02 12:06

There are there's a lot we don't know about the EV market in 2026. A lot, right? Anything could happen. Are there one or two things that you feel like you can set your watch by? This is going to be true.

SPEAKER_01 12:16

Tesla will increase market share, and the Chinese market will plateau, if not start to retract.

SPEAKER_02 12:26

We are gonna find out whether that was true when we when we meet again at August. Yes, in September. Yes, yes. All right, cool. Great to have you on the talking with you, man. Yeah, you too. Cool.

SPEAKER_01 12:38

All right, all right, we'll see you.

SPEAKER_00 12:42

Thanks for joining this episode of Eevee Insider. Be sure to like, comment, and subscribe. And we will see you next time.