Episode 083: When You Do Not Want to Go (And Why Going Anyway Might Be Worth It)

Ever talk yourself out of plans you were actually looking forward to? You are not flaky. Your brain is just running a prediction that is almost always wrong. 

Harvard psychologists call it affective forecasting - your brain’s attempt to predict how you will feel at tonight’s dinner, that birthday party, or the small group you committed to weeks ago. And the research is clear: we consistently overestimate how draining social events will be and underestimate how good they will feel once we are there. 

In this episode, we explore why your brain keeps giving you the wrong preview and a simple approach that gets you through the door without committing to the whole evening.

 What you will walk away with:

• A name for the mental pattern that talks you out of showing up
• The surprising reason your post-event mood almost never matches your pre-event dread
• A low-pressure way to honor your relationships even when your couch is louder than your RSVP

SCRIPTURE HIGHLIGHT:  "Be devoted to one another in love. Honor one another above yourselves." (NIV) Romans 12:10

Research note: This episode draws on affective forecasting research by Daniel Gilbert and Timothy Wilson (Harvard/UVA) and a week-long social interaction study by Gillian Sandstrom and colleagues (Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2022).

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

You are listening to your next best step. I'm Coach Janet J. Today we're talking about that moment where you are already dressed, your keys are in your hand, and every part of you wants to text, something came up, and stay on the couch. If that has ever been you, this is going to make you feel oh so seen. You said yes two weeks ago. You meant it then, and now it's the day of, and the couch is calling your name like it has something personal against your social life. Researchers at Harvard have a name for why you are so sure you will not even enjoy tonight. And the data says your brain is almost always wrong about this. Here's the scene: you agreed to go to dinner with a group of women from church, or a neighborhood gathering, or a birthday party for someone you genuinely like. And at the time you were enthusiastic. Absolutely count me in. Then the day arrives and suddenly you have a whole internal courtroom going, I'm so tired, I don't have anything to wear, I won't know anyone, I could just stay home and finish that show. They probably won't even notice if I'm not there. And that last one, that is the one that seals it for a lot of us. We convince ourselves that our absence will not matter, so we cancel. We stay home, and sometimes we feel relieved for about 20 minutes before the guilt settles in. If this is you, you are in very good company, and there is actual science behind why this keeps happening. Psychologist Daniel Gilbert at Harvard and Timothy Wilson at the University of Virginia spent decades studying something called effective forecasting. That is a fancy way of saying predicting how you will feel in the future. And what they found is that we are surprisingly bad at it. Specifically, we consistently overestimate how negative a future experience will be. We predict more discomfort, more awkwardness, and more exhaustion than we actually end up feeling. And it applies especially to social situations. If you listened to episode 58, you might remember me mentioning a University of Chicago study where trained commuters who were randomly assigned to talk to a stranger ended up having a significantly better commute than those who sat in silence, even though almost everyone predicted the opposite. Well, research Gillian Sandstrom and her colleagues took this idea a bit further. They asked participants to have a conversation with a stranger every day for an entire week. And every single day before the conversation happened, participants predicted that it would be more awkward and less enjoyable than it turned out to be. Every single day. Their brains kept giving them the same wrong forecast, and reality kept proving it wrong. The conversations were less awkward than predicted, more enjoyable than predicted, and they left a more positive impression than predicted. So what does this mean for you and that dinner you're thinking about canceling? It means your brain is giving you a preview of tonight that is almost certainly worse than the actual experience will be. Your forecast is off, and not just a little. You know, this is one of those places where the research lines up with something that God already told us. Romans 12, 10 says, be devoted to one another in love, honor one another above yourselves. I want you to sit with that word devoted for a second. Because devoted is not a feeling. Devoted is a decision. You do not feel your way into devotion. You choose it. Some mornings I am not feeling particularly devoted to my workout. Some evenings I am not particularly devoted to that small group or that dinner or that phone call. The feeling just isn't there. And devotion says, I am going anyway, because this matters. Because the people in that room matter. Because something does happen when I show up that does not happen when I stay home. And notice the second half of that verse. Honor one another above yourselves. Sometimes honoring someone looks like showing up when you would rather not. It looks like walking through the door, even when the couch is louder. That's not people pleasing. That is love in action. Now I do want to pause here because I know what some of you might be thinking. Janet, sometimes I am really exhausted. Sometimes I genuinely need to stay home. And that is absolutely true. And I am not talking about the nights when your body is telling you something real. Rest is biblical and it is necessary. We have talked about that on this show many times. What I'm talking about is the pattern, the default to canceling, the automatic, I don't want to go, that shows up almost every time, even when you are not actually depleted. The voice that talks you out of connection before you have even given yourself a chance to experience it. If you are honest with yourself, you probably know the difference between I need to rest tonight and I just don't feel like it. The second one is the forecasting error talking. Mentally, every time you follow through on a plan, your brain predicted would be unpleasant and discover it was actually enjoyable, you are retraining that forecasting system. You are building evidence that your predictions are not always trustworthy. And that is powerful cognitive flexibility. Emotionally, showing up when you do not feel like it often meets a need you did not realize you had. Laughter you weren't expecting, a conversation that reminds you someone sees you, a hug that you didn't know you needed. Physically, isolation is linked to increased inflammation, elevated cortisol, and disrupted sleep. Social connection, even brief, has measurable effects on your nervous system. Your body actually benefits when you walk through that door. Spiritually, devotion is practiced, not just felt. Every time you choose to show up for someone, you are living out Romans 12 10. And the Holy Spirit often works through the people we almost did not show up to see. Here is your next best step. And this is simple enough to even use tonight. The next time you want to cancel plans, pause. Do not text yet. Instead, tell yourself this. I will go for 20 minutes. If I still want to leave after 20 minutes, I will. That's it. 20 minutes. You are not committed to the whole evening. You are not promising to be the life of the party. You are giving yourself permission to show up small. And here is what happens the vast majority of the time. You stay. Because once you are there, once you are in the room and someone smiles at you and you settle in, the dread disappears. The reality replaces the forecast. 20 minutes. That is your next best step. So here's the thing I keep coming back to. Your brain has a forecasting error when it comes to social plans. Research on effective forecasting consistently shows that we predict worse experiences than we actually have. Romans 12, 10 reminds us that devotion is a decision, and showing up for the people in your life is love in action. And the 20-minute rule: it gives you a low-pressure way to get yourself through the door, even when everything in you wants to stay home. On Friday, we're talking about what your garden teaches you about patience. Even if you have managed to kill every plant you have ever owned. You do not want to miss that one. Follow or subscribe wherever you are listening or watching so you do not miss an episode. Take your next best step.