Reliable Wealth Financial Hour Podcast

Stress testing your retirement plan

Bob Falter Episode 11

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0:00 | 31:19

In this episode of the Reliable Wealth Financial Hour podcast we explore the critical transition from wealth accumulation to distribution, focusing on strategies to help you manage your portfolio against market volatility, inflation, and healthcare costs. We discuss why the Reliable Wealth Financial Group advocates "stress testing" portfolios to uncover hidden risks and to help you assess whether your strategy aligns with your personal comfort and history. 

For additional information and important disclosures please visit www.rwfhour.com






SPEAKER_05

This is the Reliable Wealth Financial Hour with Robert and Cole Falter, their family, and they're a team helping you navigate your retirement journey.

SPEAKER_06

Over the next hour, tips to optimize your savings. What if that savings is in risky investments in the market crashes? Right. That's a huge thing to think now instead of dollar cost averaging your dollar loss averaging. Strategies to protect what you've earned.

SPEAKER_05

Is that gonna last you all the way through retirement? And ideas to help keep your retirement assets on track. So let's get started. Here are Robert and Cole Falter and the Reliable Wealth Financial Hour.

SPEAKER_02

Welcome. We are so glad to have you along with us. We're talking today on the Reliable Wealth Financial Hour about one of the most pressing topics today, and that's retiring in uncertain economic times. We're dealing right now with global unrest, inflation, we don't know where that's headed. And then, of course, rising health care costs. And these are things that retirees see as big challenges. And Bob and Cole, I think that really demands a smarter, more resilient financial plan.

SPEAKER_07

I definitely agree, Cheryl. And good morning to all our listeners out there. This is the Reliable Wealth Financial Hour. We are uh definitely looking at your retirement income for the future. And that's why we're discussing this today, aren't we, Cheryl?

SPEAKER_02

We are. I thought we should start with the big picture. What are both of you hearing from clients right now? Those that are getting ready to retire, say in the next two years, one year.

SPEAKER_07

We've had a lot of appointments in the last couple weeks, haven't we, Cole? Both here and in Charlottesville, in Harrisonburg and Charlottesville, right? In both of our offices. Yeah. And the people that we've met with, it's kind of a common theme that runs through all of them, that they are definitely preparing more to play defense, and they're looking at holding on to their principle, and they don't want to spend down the principle, right?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, well, I think we're seeing a lot of concern right now. You know, and even though times look fantastic, better than they've ever been, oh yeah, it's hard to say what's looming around the corner.

SPEAKER_07

I agree with you there. You know, it's it kind of gets irrationally exuberant. That was used a long time ago by Greenspan, who was our way back in the 90s.

SPEAKER_02

Alan Greenspan.

SPEAKER_07

Alan Greenspan.

SPEAKER_02

That's going back a little bit.

SPEAKER_07

That's going back a ways. Yeah, that's dating yourself. And he said, you know, the thing that was driving the 80s and the 90s in the market straight up was irrational exuberance. And I think that's what we're seeing with the AI bubble, don't you, Cole?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I mean, we could be, you know, a lot of these companies, they shot out the gate, you know, hot and heavy and have grown to unimaginable heights. Unimaginable. And so the question is, you know, how sustainable is this? Yeah. It's hard to say.

SPEAKER_07

And then you throw in there a little bit of, you know, it's kind of like seasoning a big stew. You got your potatoes in, you got your beef in, but then you start throwing in a little bit of war in Iran, and then you season it with a little bit of economic downturn, and then you season it with some unemployment because big companies are laying off, and pretty soon your stew gets kind of yucky. It almost sounds like a goulash.

SPEAKER_02

I think it's more that or maybe a burgoo or something. But you know, you you've got to add in gas prices. Oh, don't forget that.

SPEAKER_07

Don't throw in the gas prices. You don't have the right seasoning.

SPEAKER_02

Because I filled up the tank the other day and I was shocked. It was $80.24.

SPEAKER_07

And everybody's caught has some concern because eggs have not come down in price. Beef is not coming down in price. And now they're talking about inflation and they're talking about interest rates going up this year. And that's what's driving gold down in March, isn't it, Cole? But the dollar is showing stronger signs. But is that sustainable? I guess that's the real question. Overall, when we look at that picture, that causes our clients that actually some concern.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_07

They want to make sure they're moving from, you know, the point in life where you're growing and you're working and you're making lots of money and you're accumulating. You're putting money into your retirement plans, you're putting money into your investments, you're putting money into houses and building, but now you're getting ready to move from the accumulation stage to the distribution stage. Within a few years or a few months, you'll be retiring. You're going to unplug that paycheck and it's not going to come in anymore.

SPEAKER_02

Well, Cole, you specialize in the protection side of things. So, how does all of this uncertainty, you say you're getting questions about that? How do you answer those questions? What are the options?

SPEAKER_01

I mean, that's a really good question. You know, I will start just by saying this isn't anything new. It may seem like debt is rising more than it ever has, and that's true. Inflation is rising again, and that's true, but we've seen all of this before in history. Yeah. And so when we sit down and decide how we coach a client to navigate through retirement, it's keeping all of these things in mind. In our office, we study market history. And that's very closely. Yeah. We really look at market history, don't we? Yeah, that's right. And that's because, you know, as a retiree, nearing retirement or in retirement, you don't you want to make sure that you're protected. Right. And so a big part of our practice comes with identifying do you have the proper protection in place where if anything happens, that we've set your plan up to be protected over time.

SPEAKER_07

And we can even stress test your plan that you have in place. Because and a lot, I think this is probably a better time to stress test now than ever before because you see your market, you see the stock market. I mean, the fear of missing out is just exuberant. Everybody's trying to become a stockbroker, aren't they? Hey, can you buy a scan disk for me? Can you buy this? Can you buy that? Can you put me into some really aggressive stuff? That's not our business model. We can do that. And this might be a time to do that with a toe in the water, but this isn't a time to change your whole strategy. Because, you know, taking risk when you don't need to take risk is a really, really important discussion that we have. I just got off the phone and a Zoom meeting with a new potential client. And he said to me, you know, he told me how much his investor, his stock broker had him in the market. And the gentleman is in his mid to late 70s. And with that in mind, and I've seen a lot of clients like this, Cheryl, why do you have six, seven, eight hundred thousand dollars in aggressive stocks that could potentially lose 30, 40, 50, 60 percent or more? And now you're still counting on that advisor to still make good stock picks when he's just using a computer to make those stock picks. There was a time, Cheryl, in history, and I don't know if you've ever heard about this, but and Cole, this is in the book when you're studying, they actually had back in the 1999s a chimpanzee picking stocks.

SPEAKER_02

Oh, I do remember. Yes.

SPEAKER_07

Yeah, and the chimpanzee would throw darts at a stockboard. That's crazy. The chimpanzee was doing well, but that was in the 1990s. Yeah, you know, in the market, you couldn't pick a bad stock in the 1990s. Didn't matter what you bought. It's kind of like the AI bubble that's going on right now. If you pick anything that has to do with chips and microcomputers and all that strategy, it's gonna go up some until it isn't. And then when it turns, who knows when and how fast the bottom is? Didn't we see that back in 2020 when the market crashed because of COVID?

SPEAKER_02

But it came back pretty quickly.

SPEAKER_07

It did, thank goodness. And you know why it came back? That's important to understand. Because could it take the same drop and could it come back the same way again? I don't know. Is your gun loaded with that many bullets? The reason it came back the last time was because they continued to print money and print money and they gave away stimulus and they said, just go ahead, stay home, we're gonna lock you in your house and we're gonna give you money to stay home. I don't think they're gonna do that anymore because now they're clearing off their balance sheets. They're too far in debt. I don't see how they could do that again. Well, it's not that they can't. It's not that they can't.

SPEAKER_01

They can always they can do whatever they want, to be honest.

SPEAKER_02

That's true. That's true.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and you know, that's the biggest piece. It's not necessarily whether or not we know, you know, is this event going to create a market downturn? We have no idea. No one does really. Yeah. And if someone's telling you they do, they don't. It's you can't time the market. But I think that there are things you can do to mitigate the risk. And so it's really a matter of defining how much risk are you taking, first off, are you comfortable with that? Some people, they like to take risk into retirement, but I don't think that they're properly looking at history. You know, risk is not a bad thing. It's a great thing when you're my age and you have time to recover. With more risk comes more reward. But when you're nearing retirement and you need this portfolio that you built up over years and years of working hard to now provide enough income to live with the rising cost of inflation, with the rising cost of healthcare, there's a certain strategy that you can pivot to to make sure that it's there when you need it. Right, exactly.

SPEAKER_07

You know, and being crazily aggressive when you don't need to is not necessarily the best strategy. If you're feeling like and you you might want to get a stress test, not for you, for your heart, okay, but you might want to test your portfolio. We have the capability to do that, don't we, Cole? Yeah. Tell them a little bit about how we stress test their entire portfolio so you can see how much risk you're really taking. That's important to know.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. So we have proprietary software that will take a full picture of your current portfolio and analyze all of the funds inside. And so one thing that does is it tells you what you have. A lot of people don't even know what they have. Right. And so we can fine tooth comb your portfolio and identify what's inside of your investment portfolio. And it makes it easily recognizable for the average layman because it gives you the risk and a speed limit sign, doesn't it? Yeah. And that's the big thing, you know, with a few different factors, it can tell you how risky each one of those items are. And so oftentimes what we find is people say, they come in and they say, Yeah, my advisor has me invested moderate. We throw it in the software and we find out that 50% of their portfolio is extremely risky, and 50% of their portfolio is sitting in cash. Right. So that equals moderate. Not really.

SPEAKER_07

It's kind of like having your feet in two different buckets, one's in the fire and one's in the ice. Oh, I'm just feeling comfortable here. No, you're really not. You think you are, but they're not aware of all the details and they don't see that. They just listen to what their advisor says as opposed to understanding what's really going on in their portfolio. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Well, and the nice thing with that speed limit sign is it will tell you, uh, based on a few different factors, how risky that specific investment is inside of your portfolio. And so when we look at the full picture, if you're nearing retirement and you're driving 70 or 80 miles an hour with all of the storms that are brewing of rumors of wars in Iran and things like that, maybe you don't want to be driving 80 miles an hour into the storm. And so that's where we can adjust and reduce risk and really ultimately provide income.

SPEAKER_07

Right. And that's probably one of the easiest and best things we do. And that's why we're offering the complementary analysis of your portfolio. We can take your portfolio, stress test it, go over it with you, whether you're in Texas, California, or in Virginia, right near our office, watching it on the whiteboard, and we'll show you in detail and go through every step. And that's probably the thing that we do the best. It's not about you know, there's a lot of advisors out there that you feel like you're just trying to be sold something when you go into their office. We're not trying to do that. We are trying to help educate you. What we do best is educate. And we show you here's how you got where you are, here's what we need to do to change this so you can get on a better trajectory. You know, so we want to make sure that we show you and educate you and take the time to work with you. Whether it takes one meeting or ten meetings, it doesn't matter to us.

SPEAKER_02

Bob, here's the thing, though, when you've had a stock market that's been really as good as it has been of late, it's hard to imagine that it won't be.

SPEAKER_07

That's right.

SPEAKER_02

So I imagine you are overcoming some of those feelings when you meet with people and you say, hey, we have to stress test, we have to see what would happen if, and they're going, Yeah, but you know, back several months ago, we did uh, you know, the topic of normalcy bias.

SPEAKER_07

Remember, we talked about normalcy bias, and things are going so well in my life that I just think they'll continue. And I don't think things will change. When in fact you've had that cough for a couple weeks, maybe you do need to go to the doctor and check it out and find out what's going on in life, really, you know? So we want to make sure that you understand what's going on because any, you know, anything could jump out of the closet and cause our market to go down. It's just incredibly, incredibly high. And according to history, which Cole said a few minutes ago, we analyze history very closely because everything's based on what happened before in life. Don't you agree, Cheryl?

SPEAKER_02

Of course. If you don't look at history, if you don't look at what has happened, it's hard to deal with what could happen.

SPEAKER_07

Right. So, you know, you kind of think uh here's a silly analogy, but I think it works really well with this. You know, you're in the fourth quarter and you've got the lead in the game, you're maybe five, six yards from the goal line. The clock's running out. You don't really need a Hail Mary pass at that point. What you need is maybe just kneeling and the ball, and that'll win it. You know, you've already got the game one, playing it safe, controlling the clock, taking sure yardage, making sure that you don't you're avoiding turnovers. You don't, you just need to bleed the clock out. And you've won the game. Why would you want to take risk when you don't need to? And and I heard, you know, one of the coach Bear Bryant's one of the big statements that they made is championships are won by playing defense, not by looking at the movie of the greatest game that you won. The highlight reel. Exactly.

SPEAKER_02

You know, but Bob, there's fear of missing out.

SPEAKER_07

Oh, yes, there sure is, Cheryl. Fear of missing out is really playing it hard right now, and that's why we've gotten a lot of calls from a lot of people that are clients of ours. They want for us to change slightly, and we talk them down off the edge, change slightly their portfolio. And we can certainly do that because that's one of the things that we're capable of doing as our financial advice, and we get into their portfolio. We show them the risk that we can take, but we also show them that we have our finger on the pulse and we can change it at any moment. We don't set it and forget it, and we watch things changing in the market all the time. And we make adjustments as we need to, just like if you're in a sailboat and you're sailing across the country over, you know, you want to head to France or something. You see a huge storm coming across. It's time to pull into port and let the storm go by. I mean, we keep the wind at our back, pushing the sailboat in the right direction, making adjustments as we go. Because when the tides in, all boats go up, and when all boats are going up, we can get some really great interest off of some of those stocks and some of those investments and some of those bonds.

SPEAKER_02

So, what about health care costs? What can you do, Cole?

SPEAKER_01

If you're talking, you know, average over time, healthcare has been one of the most inflated expenses, especially for retirees, than anything else. And so with that being said, health-related expenses can be very expensive. And with that being said, you know, finding plans and policies that are specifically designed to reduce that is kind of what we specialize with. And so a lot of our plan includes that. We talk about what does it look like if you need long-term care? What does it look like if inflation continues to rise? Are you producing enough income from your portfolio to pay for those higher expenses throughout retirement? One of the biggest things that people miss, I think, is really that long-term care piece. A lot of people think I'm healthy now, I may not need this. And that's true, you may not need it. But if you do need it, it can absolutely devastate a retirement plan. And so that's where sitting down and identifying how much risk are you taking in this area? Do you have long-term care protection? And honestly, nowadays, we don't even use traditional long-term care because premiums increase every year, and it gets to a point to where you're paying something that you may not ever use. Right. And so rather than going down the traditional route, we have policies and programs designed to not only take care of that long-term care piece, they act as a great investment vehicle as well. So you're using it no matter what. It has the long-term care protection, but it also includes growing and accumulating money over time.

SPEAKER_07

And if you're able to do that and accumulate money and you, let's say you're flourishing in your 80s and 90s and you don't really need long-term care, that's fantastic, you know, because you've taken really good care of yourself and now you have all that money put aside. Isn't that nice? An additional tax-free income. You know, a methodical, calculated approach often triumphs over reckless gambles because it reduces the uncertainty that you have in the future, and you're managing your risk through preparation and through studying things. And that's what we do with our clients. That kind of reminds me of a story I shared with Cole just before we got on the show today. It's an interesting story about a guy that really, really won air miles. Okay. There was a company back in the 1990s called Healthy Choice, and they had a lot of different products available, but they announced back in 1999 that they were going to offer 500 air miles for every 10 product barcodes from all their different products. For every 10 product barcodes you submitted, they'll give you 500 air miles. So everybody started thinking about this. But what this one guy, David Phillips, he researched all the products and he came up with the best value, Cheryl. He found that a 25 cent pudding cup could give him a value because he bought 12,150 pudding cups for only $3,000.

SPEAKER_02

Okay.

SPEAKER_07

He hired a bunch of volunteers to peel the labels, sent them into the company, donated all the pudding to a food bank, earning a tax deduction, and he earned 1.2 million air miles from Healthy Choice.

SPEAKER_02

Wow.

SPEAKER_07

He'll be flying for the rest of his life for free. Thank you, pudding.

SPEAKER_02

That's an amazing story.

SPEAKER_07

You know, but he was he said rather than just picking all these products and sending them in, why don't I just pick one that I can really save some money on? So when you strategize, instead of taking reckless gambles and just buying stocks just because they're going up, or buy the dip, buy the dip, you know, you got to watch for falling knives when you're doing that because you want to make sure a gold price fell. Should I buy it now? You know? So that's an important conversation to have because we need to determine what is your true risk temperament. What is your gut instinct telling you? Because we don't want to get too far from your gut instinct. You're leaving a legacy of consideration. You don't want to just leave things wide open so that they're undetermined, providing not only for yourself and for your nursing care and for you to be taken care of the way you want to be in the future, but you're also providing for future generations. And you're ensuring the continuity of care and that the power of attorneys are all in place and that you have all of the paperwork documented. And you want to avoid those difficult conversations because how difficult do you think it's going to be or that it would be if something had happened or something happened to you? You were laying there and you couldn't discuss things, and they had to make a decision. You're they're standing next to your bed and they're making a decision on whether to stop, you know, your care and whether to pull the plug. That's a tough one if you haven't spelled it out.

SPEAKER_02

Well, and there can be very different feelings from family members. So what you want is what matters here.

SPEAKER_07

And when you have major life events that change your life, you know, have a new baby. Cole's got a new baby that's what, nine months old now. You know, Eleanor is such a blessing when they bring the baby over to the house or we go to their house to see the baby. You know, Leah and Noah are so precious and six and seven years old to fantastic time. You guys took a retreat to Washington, D.C. the other day, didn't you? Yeah, it was a field trip. Wow. A field trip. One of those field trips? Yes. They had a blast, you know? Yeah, that's great. They rode on one of those non-air conditioned old smelly old school buses. No, they didn't. Two and a half hours with a bunch of screaming kids. Can you imagine? Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_02

No.

SPEAKER_07

No, I can't. But they did they took a really, really nice bus, and there were four or five buses and took all the kids up there. But you did walk a lot, didn't you?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, it was a lot of walking. Yeah, it's a lot to see.

SPEAKER_07

It's very educational. So, um, but we want to make sure that we're taking care of the next generation. We want to make sure that we're setting things up for them. We want to make sure you're taking care of you, that you've got all the paperwork. Because Lord knows you don't want to wind up in probate court if you don't need to be, because you are going to go to probate court if you have a will. Should you get a trust? That's a decision that an attorney and you make. You know, we're not state planning attorneys. I want to stress that. We don't give legal advice. We can certainly come up with the questions that you can ask one of the attorneys that we're associated with, and we can guide you to the right spot to get the answer. You're comfortable with. And we're doing that with our clients now. So these are things that a lot of people put off, Cheryl, Nicole, don't they? And the reason oftentimes they put them off is it's just I don't know where to start. So we'll give you a place to start.

SPEAKER_02

That's so helpful because it is so easy to just keep pushing that ahead of us. You know, we talked about the rise in gas prices. And what I've been noticing lately are all of the rescheduled or canceled flights. There's a problem with jet fuel with the straight of horror moves being blocked on and off. So if you're planning a big trip this summer, keep that in mind. But there are lots of places online where you can check to see for flight delays and flight cancellations and things like that. But that is just one more uncertainty that people have in the back of their heads. I do. You do.

SPEAKER_07

It's interesting because we often make plans, but then maybe we have to adjust those because of circumstances and situations that we're going through. But the four most dangerous words that have to do with the stock market is it'll be different this time.

SPEAKER_04

Right.

SPEAKER_07

Right. It'll be different this time. When you go back and you really look at history, all this has happened before, hasn't it? You know, we've had economic crises before back in 1999 for sure, 2007, 8 when the banking industry failed. But, you know, we've seen these and we study them closely. And what sets us apart as the reliable wealth financial group, very, very different business model than most stockbrokers and most financial advisors is we look at history very closely. We tend to call things a little differently than most advisors. And we don't, we don't have a big, huge firm that's telling us to pass on to our clients what they want them to hear. You need to leave their money in the market. You need to put as much money in the market. You know, when I see a guy like we've seen a lot of ladies and gentlemen in the last couple weeks and appointments in our office that are 70, 75, 80 years old, and they have a huge amount in cash in the bank, making 2% or 3%, and then they have a huge amount sitting in very, very aggressive stocks. It tells me that there needs to be some education there. They just don't have all the details. And so that's the thing that we plan to do when we set aside the time to sit down and say, what other options are available? What else could you do? You don't have to just fix that sink using a hammer only.

SPEAKER_01

I like to think of us in the analogy of any sort of good, let's use like jewelry, rather than going to the cookie cutter jewelry company that you see 15 of them, whatever name you want to fill in the blank there, that has all the same items, and you might find something you like, and it might be in your price range. We're like the custom guy down the road that spends hours building your piece custom to you. Right. And that's what we do. We build retirement plans. Now, with that being said, there are a bunch of different tools we can use to design the perfect retirement plan for you. And that's where when my dad says one meeting or 10 meetings, sometimes it takes multiple conversations to identify what is it that you're trying to design here. And what we're familiar with that I think kind of sets us apart is we work with hundreds of retirees. And so we know as you near and enter into, you know, last throughout retirement, what tools will provide the correct role that you're trying to design here. And that comes with, you know, what we do in our office. And so when we're designing this retirement income map, it's a long process, but I think it's worth it. Because we define all of the risks that maybe you weren't even aware of and design products and or investment strategies to mitigate those risks and plan for the goals that you have in mind.

SPEAKER_02

What do you think is the most important question someone should ask?

SPEAKER_07

What is sustaining them right now? Have they calculated or are they about to calculate? We had a whole show on Social Security. Have they gone through the questionnaire that we often provide for Social Security to see when exactly is the best time? Are you maximizing your income? Do you have a pension? Are there any other sources of income like real estate rentals that money is coming in on a regular basis? So that's what you have as your bedrock to sustain you now. What can we do with this savings plan that you have? Whether it's $200,000 or $2 million, it doesn't make any difference. It's all deciding what is the best use of this. And should you set it up? How much can you tolerate market risk? You know, we're working with one in particular client that I'm thinking of, and he has more than enough money to be able to sustain and live on. But he wants to make sure he has some a bedrock set up for uh lack of market risk and make sure that his wife is taken care of with guaranteed income for the rest of her life. That's what he's looking for, that's what she's looking for. So, what is the goal? Can we get forty or fifty or sixty thousand dollars a year every year for the rest of our lives? And that's where we educate you on what tools are available, what's available out there, because a lot of people don't even know that the moderate box of investing is exists. They only think of the aggressive box, the stocks and mutual funds, or the conservative box, the CDs. That's all they think is available out there. So we have to educate them on all the other tools that are available and how you don't use a hammer to build that's the not the only tool you use to build a you know wall in your in your bathroom, right? So, with all that in mind, educating you on the tools that are available and showing you what we can do and how we can use things to set you up for income, because isn't retirement all about income? It's not about how much you have in the bank, although you would think it is, the balance is not the key indicator of what you have for income. Because if you take two different balances, you take a $1 million balance and you take a $600,000 balance. The $1 million balance is sitting in the bank getting 2%. You're only getting $20,000 a year. The $600,000 balance is getting six or seven percent. You're getting forty, forty-five thousand dollars a year of interest and dividends. You can take the eggs without touching the chicken, take the interest in dividends. So we have a slogan that we often use in our seminars. For your retirement plan to be totally stress-free, take your income from the I, interest in dividends. Don't touch the G. Don't touch the growth. Because the G can turn into an L. And right now it's still going up with the market, but who knows when and where that can change. And there's a lot of our CFOs, 60% of the CFOs in America have predicted a recession this year. That's a lot of people thinking that the market's going to turn. So if it does, are you protected for the downside? With all that in mind, this is probably the best time to have a financial review of your accounts, take a look at what you have, and make sure that you're not losing money, that you're taking income the right way, because you don't want to be selling shares and taking income from the sale of those shares of stocks and mutual funds, especially when the market starts down. But the most important thing are our clients. We want to make sure they're well taken care of in this time of financial turbulence. Thanks so much today for listening to the Reliable Wealth Financial Hour. This is Bob Falter, your host. I was joined by Cole, my son, my business partner. And thanks, Cole, for being here. I appreciate it very much. Thanks for all that you added to the show and taking care of the retirement income map and all that you do. And Cheryl, thanks for guiding us again.

SPEAKER_02

Likewise, Bob and Cole. We'll be talking with everyone again next week at this same time. So I hope you'll join us again then too.

SPEAKER_05

To learn more about the Reliable Wealth team, be sure to visit our website, reliablewealthfinancial.com.

SPEAKER_00

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