Inside a VC’s Mind What Gets You Funded & What Kills Your Startup pt 2, John Forbes, Julian Capital

 Startup Wins Podcast, Season 2, Ep 6, Part 2 of 2 

The cold email is dead—or is it? In Part 2 of our conversation with John Forbes, Principal at Julian Capital and operator of Deep Checks, we go deeper into how VCs actually think, what's really happening to software in the age of AI, and why Austin might be the most underrated startup city in America. 

Plus, John gets personal—sharing his heroes, his hard seasons, and the life philosophy that drives everything he builds. 

💥 In this episode, you'll learn: 

• Why a great cold email still beats every warm intro
• How deep tech VCs do due diligence on brand-new, unproven technology
• Why AI is compressing SaaS margins—and where the real defensibility is going
• What LinkedIn spam is doing to founder outreach (and what actually works)
• Why Austin's emerging startup culture beats Silicon Valley's for builders right now
• John's personal hero (hint: it's a Founding Father) and what he borrows from him

🎧 Whether you're a founder trying to get your first VC meeting or an operator figuring out your next move, this episode is packed with actionable insight and rare candor from someone living it every day.
 
📩 Reach John directly: john@deepchecks.vc 🔗 Apply at Deep Checks: deepchecks.vc
 
🔔 Subscribe to Startup Wins for conversations with top VCs, founders, and operators shaping the future.
 

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Hosted by Brandon Na, Managing General Partner of Good Peoples Ventures

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Welcome to Startup Wins. Twice a month we share real stories and smart tips. Subscribe and join the journey.

SPEAKER_02 0:09

Welcome back to a special episode of Startup Wins. We are continuing with our great interview with John Forbes in part two of two. John's the principal at Julian Capital and general manager of Deep Checks. It's the best place for Deep Tech founders to reach thesis-fit investors. Today we not only talk more about how VCs think when startups approach them, but also learn more about John, who's an Austin-based VC and maybe someday going to be the first VC on Billboard's top 100. Hope you enjoy. Okay, let's go. Now, Deep Tech and Climate Tech seem to be international. So do you find yourself being pitched by a lot of companies that are outside the US, or are the are most of the solutions in the United States for Julian?

SPEAKER_01 1:04

Yeah, I mean for Deep Techs, our geography is surprisingly diverse. We see companies from all over the world. I would certainly say that there are larger pockets that we see from the US, Canada, and Europe, but see stuff from all over the place, and then as as a fund and particularly largely focused on US, Canada, and Europe.

SPEAKER_02 1:24

Okay. Are are there any particular regions outside the US though that you're finding maybe are starting to come into, I guess, your you know uh uh vision uh uh for for the future? It just it just seems like such a like for example, China being obviously a big competitor and also just a big country and having lots of pollution, for example, when when we're talking about climate tech. Um do you find companies coming from China or maybe even India?

SPEAKER_01 1:54

Yeah, I mean um at least in terms of what we are what is coming to us, less so from China, but certainly many from from from India.

SPEAKER_02 2:02

Okay, yeah. No, that I can imagine because I think India has a lot of issues around climate that uh could definitely be solved from what from what my my layman's uh understanding uh of it is. Well, tell tell us a little bit about why why you guys chose deep tech. You know, I mean I know it's it's it's of interest, it does align a little bit as far as climate and a little bit of your background, but um, why deep tech versus like healthcare or perhaps education, couple sectors that seem, you know, to obviously make impact as well, or or you know, even AI or or whatever. I'm I imagine AI is becoming a larger component regardless.

SPEAKER_01 2:42

Totally. Yeah, I mean, you know, for us it's where we think the largest, many of the largest companies are to be built that have structural advantages that we're able to wrap our heads around. Namely, the why now is answered for most deep tech companies. Meaning the companies that we're backing generally have only been made technically possible over, say, the last year, the last couple years. Oftentimes it's like people's research that has just come out that is that is being commercialized. And so it's it we're able to get to competence on the reason why this particular idea hasn't been tried before, and it's because it's just been made possible to commercialize or bring to market, but generally come commercial trends or policy trends or uh you know demand inflection trends and you know a convergence of factors that have led to this being the particular right time to bring this business to market in a market where we can confidently underwrite the demand for it. And so that I would say is our more polished answer, and our more personal answer is like we get to live in the future at the forefront of sectors that fascinate us every single day, meeting with people that are chasing their life's work. And to me personally, at least, that is just incredibly motivating. And then in in in terms of why why that versus uh other other sectors, we actually all came from software. So I was working it and trying to start software businesses myself. So we're so we're Julian and Jacob. And I think within software in particular, we're seeing a confluence of trends where you know margin compression is happening in the age of AI. The the defensibility of software is is going to zero and it's becoming easier than ever to build a software business. And so we think there's going to be you know millions of great uh smaller software businesses that are built in light of the cost of making them going down, but the defensibility and durability of these businesses are are getting harder and harder. And then you know, in terms of AI, undoubtedly you know, like more opportunity than you can um imagine. But as as we know, it is a quite crowded space. And um so we'll we'll do stuff that the AI is a part of, but we like to have it be connected to hardware that we can underwrite is defensible. Okay.

SPEAKER_02 4:57

Well, I'd love to dive in a little bit more into the AI part of the conversation because it's just such a ubiquitous uh part of society right now. But um I'm curious because you you'd mentioned a lot of it's been recent, some of these innovations have been recent. How does due diligence play a role then? Because I mean I imagine due diligence is is is even tougher if it's a very recent, you know, change or all these statistics are sometimes you know, like new, right? So I don't know where they even get the numbers.

SPEAKER_01 5:27

Totally. Yeah. So I mean, I think the the challenge that many investors will face investing cross category within deep tech is how do you do technical due diligence? And founders will have the flip side of this. A lot of times it is educating VCs on the remaining risk that you have to get your products to commercial scale. And so, you know, for us, we seek to understand what the degree of remaining technical risk is from the place that you are to full commercial scale. And within the steps that it takes to get there, is it known engineering challenges to be able to get your product from lab to pilot to commercial? Or is there remaining scientific risk in being able to do so? Say you have a therapeutic and you're not sure if it's going to work and you need to get your trial data back to know whether or not it stands the chance of having the efficacy that you want. Something like that might be harder for us to wrap our heads around compared to you have a you know flow battery system and and you roughly know what the path to scale is to look like using known engineering challenges. So that's that's generally our approach, is like we try to understand what the steps are from now to scale and what the degree of risk associated with those steps are, and then look to the quality of the background of your team and the people that you are hiring to be able to pare down that risk over time.

SPEAKER_02 6:49

Well, is deep tech uh an industry for the VC where you have to hit uh more home runs, or rather, there's more strikeouts uh in in deep tech than other industries, or is it the same? Um would you say it's you know you need to have the same amount of home runs? Because, you know, I mean the general principle or general thought around VC is right, you have a lot of potential misses, and then you get a couple successful companies that that that help the LPs you know stay happy. But is deep tech riskier than I would say other industries?

SPEAKER_01 7:26

Yeah, I wouldn't say I wouldn't say riskier, it's just risk can come from different places. Uh you know, you might have a more uh you might have a longer time to revenue, which mean there's more fundraising risk at the first couple stages, or your technical risk is much harder to pare down than that of like a software business. And so are you hiring the right team and able to go figure out those steps? Sales can be really challenging. You're oftentimes working with large companies and changing pieces of their supply chain or process or core business function, and those are decisions that are not made lightly from customers. And so they each come with their own set of challenges. If you were to flip it back to software, it might be easier to build, might be easier to get people to buy, but it might be harder to get people to stay. And so, like there's you know, whatever business that you're building, it's going to have its inherent trade-offs of what is challenging and what is you know easier compared to the other. And they're each probably going to have the the flip side that that gets in the way of the thing. And so I think for us, you know, the there's there's no difference in our eyes in terms of number of of home runs versus versus other categories. It's just a different set of risk profiles that we're assessing on a company-by-company basis.

SPEAKER_02 8:33

So SaaS has taken a big hit because of AI. And now obviously everybody's using CLOD or or they're using some sort of you know uh faster mechanism to to solve some of the issues around software. Um, do you do you feel like you're seeing a lot more adoption with AI just to keep up and and to be more attractive for even you as the VC? Um, or is it just something they use as a sexy term to kind of you know hypothesize that they are expediting the process uh via that that? Or are there any particular areas that you you're finding that they're using AI more?

SPEAKER_01 9:15

Yeah, totally. I mean, uh by means of startups, there's all there's all sorts of startups within our world where like AI is part of the solution. Um there's things like you know material discovery or genome editing or all sorts of other areas that like have been made possible because of advancements in AI that are tied to real world systems. And those businesses are quite exciting to us. I think you know, for for us and really for everybody else in the world, it's it this is the like technological wave of our time. And so I think everybody should be trying to figure out ways to better leverage and use it. And we certainly are. We're baking it into the products that we build, into the workflows that we have, and we're we're constantly trying to think about how we can leverage this tool to be more effective in our jobs, to be of better support to the founders that we work with.

SPEAKER_02 10:05

And and how how are you personally using AI to kind of expedite, maybe improve your processes? Um are there any things that you're seeing where you're benefiting more in either the sourcing or um, I don't know, even these interviews, right? Because you could literally probably talk to a uh um uh a fake AI of sorts uh to to interview. Um, and who knows? I think podcasts will potentially move that direction. But but yeah, how how are you applying AI in your own life?

SPEAKER_01 10:37

Yeah, I mean, I think one of the most interesting ways that we get to use it being a generalist fund is, you know, we have this tool that puts information at our fingertips, and so it it makes it much more feasible to be investing across such a wide array of sectors because it no longer is you need a even if like say I had a PhD in X, that PhD would only be applicable, directly applicable to X, and there would still be so much more that I would that I would need to know and understand. And so I think by being able to ask the right questions and having the information there, it makes my job of asking the right questions to founders and coming with a prepared mind, you know, much much easier than it would have been pre-LLMs.

SPEAKER_02 11:24

Okay, that makes sense. And um, are there any missing opportunities uh for founders in terms of, you know, I mean, just literally just emailing you and just saying, hey, can we have a meeting? Or are there any other, you know, ways of basically uh you know communicating to you guys just just to hopefully get a conversation going?

SPEAKER_01 11:44

So I mean so I mean again, we look at every deck that comes through Julian Capital and Deep Checks. You can always reach me at John at deepchecks.vc. And I think whether you're emailing me or really any other VC, a good cold email works. It doesn't even really have to be that personalized. If you just give me the surface area of your deck, who you are, what business you're building, a couple highlights about it, and a meeting link. I should be able to decide from that whether or not it's going to be in scope for our fund and book a meeting directly with you. I I think there's it's a cold email is an underappreciated art, and uh I think you can you can reach people that's uh you can reach anybody with it if you if you if you write a cold email that's it's all about just matching incentives, right? And so yeah, you you I whether it's me or anybody else, I think a good cold email works.

SPEAKER_02 12:30

And do you feel like that's also the same uh case for like LinkedIn, for example? Because I've I've found that it seems a little more spammy here on LinkedIn um in recent times. And I'm I'm curious, I'm curious about it.

SPEAKER_01 12:43

LinkedIn's really hard for I I inundated with LinkedIn spam. I try my list, but I'm I'm not always I'm better by email, is what I'll say.

SPEAKER_02 12:52

Yeah, yeah. No, earlier this year, uh when I was approaching a lot of founders and um a few VCs to speak to, I had never experienced as as much of a dearth in response. Whereas last year for some, and it was weird. I don't know if it's it's been you know in the past few months or or in the past six months, but yeah, LinkedIn seems to be just inundated with with uh spam. Are there any other communication channels that you guys are using um as well? I mean, um I don't know if Angelis or other forms of uh VC kind of sites have been useful. Um it just seems like every day there's a new one, like Happenstance, for example. And any any that you can think of?

SPEAKER_01 13:36

Yeah, I mean our our best ones are are email and and website. Some VCs are are more active in their Twitter and and LinkedIn DMs and prefer those, but yeah, for us, email and site are definitely the best.

SPEAKER_02 13:49

Okay. And then then obviously one more is just in person. So you here are in Austin. So what what's nice about that is obviously people can meet you. Are there any events that you go to on a regular basis that they can look out to to find you at? Or you know, how how how how can they find John? Where is John?

SPEAKER_01 14:08

Yeah, yet again, email is the best. I I certainly try my best to go out to events when I can, and especially ones that are relevant to the sectors that I invest in, but email's your your best bet. Okay, got it, got it.

SPEAKER_02 14:22

There's a theme here. Just kidding. Um, but but but I'd love to talk about Austin because you know both of us found this location to be kind of the future, or at least that's our belief, I imagine. Um now, why do you think personally Austin's a great place? Um I'll I'll give you my opinion here in a little bit, but but curious what what why you thought, and because, like, for example, you went to Berkeley, so you were in the Bay, which is considered one of the best uh you know startup communities in the world. I personally think it's saturated, and I think there's other reasons why perhaps the Bay is not as much of an opportunity, but you also are from LA. So like I think LA has a growing startup community. Um, both of them are very expensive, and so that's one of the reasons why I think it's challenging. But tell us a little bit about your thoughts around Austin.

SPEAKER_01 15:09

Totally, yeah. And I mean, I think it's been great to have the experience of I I grew up in Redonda Beach, which is right next to El Segundo, which until two years ago was a sleepy little industrial town, and now it's it's chained quite a lot, and I've got to see SF from the vantage point of Berkeley and the city proper. And you know, I think that there's something special about growing ecosystems. So SF is obviously established and is the number one startup ecosystem in the world. That's incredible. LA and Austin, I think, are these emerging ones. And there's a a feeling I've felt going from SF to LA, LA to Austin, where because it's growing, the willingness to share the pie is higher. People are very open with their Rolodex, people are there to get to know you as a person before they want to know what you do. They um they genuinely want to be of service to one another. And I've I've felt it the most in Austin because I think it's the most naschant of all of them. And people recognize that, you know, uh a tide lifts all boats. And with Austin, maybe it's a mix of southern charm and and and it being uh uh you know a new and growing ecosystem. But I think that's one of the things that is most resounding about the city, and it's one that I've genuinely enjoyed um today. And so for me it was a mix of, you know, I think it is going to be one of the best places to build energy startups and manufacturing startups and robotic startups and uh certain slices of bio startups for structural reasons that I think are there to stay. And I think there's just certainly more work to do, but it is on the path towards it. And uh as mentioned the music earlier, so it it's just a it's a great city to live. There's a ton of live music, and I've I I I enjoy those other parts of it personally as well.

SPEAKER_02 16:54

Um I I saw recently the airport is is expanding, so it'll double in size, I think is what I read. So because we have a smaller airport here, um, but having that for the future is great, obviously. And the traffic, I I I I imagine you probably experience this is is is pretty great. Yeah, um, you know, so it's starting to resemble um some of our past homes. Um so I'm also from Seattle, and uh that that's definitely a different ecosystem, I would argue. But um yeah, it it does feel friendlier here. Uh I don't know about you, uh, but it does feel definitely friendlier. Yeah, the southern charm, maybe, maybe is what I think that's part of it. But I wonder are are there other elements, and I'd love to even talk about the culture uh some more, but um, is it the land? Because I mean there's a lot of land around us that is uh barren, like it's it's unused, and and like where I moved recently, you know, it was all farmland uh before they built the community. And it's still there's definitely a lot of opportunity moving forward as far as growing other parts to it. But um, do you think land is is is part of the advantages or any other specific things you think Austin has besides maybe even the feel and and and potentially the future in regards to startups or just in general? Like one thing that I I would argue uh that I find um Austin has, it has both the liberal and also the conservative constituency. So you get both perspectives. Whereas I feel like maybe on the West Coast it's a it's a bit more liberal, or or maybe in the deep south it's it's somewhat conservative, but yet has this other element to it. You know, you go to the Midwest, it's very friendly, but at the same time they have these other elements, and then obviously the Northeast is different too. So um I do find it's very fascinating because in in the state of Texas it's it's very conservative for the most part in most cities, but then here, weirdly enough, we have this big liberal, I can't remember what they called it, that some friends would describe it in ways that just uh kind of funny um as far as what the city's like. But yeah, that that's one reason why, and that's why I'd love to talk more about culture. But yeah, I was just curious if you thought of any other things. Um, because I'm still speculating why it's such a great place, even though I do feel something that it it it's the future.

SPEAKER_01 19:21

Yeah, totally. I mean, I think it's a it's a it's a city in change, right? Like it's it's it's had this mantra of keep Austin weird for some time and was a you know, they they call it the live music capital of the world, but that's probably Nashville today. There's maybe less of that today than there was some time ago. You have the the mix of political party, you have honestly a lot of people coming from a whole bunch of different places, so I think you probably like you you have a mix of of culture that is emerging to the city and reshaping what what the culture is to be. And I think it all of it, you know, the the influx of of uh of of people from other places, the the growth in in tech and other industries, like it it it generally is just making it more metropolitan. And I think like places that have a large combination of different types of people and industries and things to go do and values that are prioritized, I think. You know, the more melding of those uh you can get, the more interesting the place is going to be because you have influences from all over the place.

SPEAKER_02 20:26

I would agree, I would agree. And and and I forgot, there's another element. It's it's more affordable, or it's very affordable uh comparatively, right? So you don't have to pay three times, four times um the amount just to get a house. Um I I personally was able to buy a house that's a third of the price of what what it would be like in Seattle. Um try trip try San Francisco and LA. It's a it's a large, large district. No, it's it's it's almost impossible. I I don't even know what people do in San Francisco, frankly, just to just to find a place to buy. Um and it just seems like it's gonna get crazier and crazier over time. Well, cool. And we're gonna we're gonna end uh obviously with a few standard questions that we always love to ask our our you know guests. Um, but any last words as far as like what you might recommend to other startup founders, maybe from how to build the startup? And then maybe secondly, um, and I'm happy to you know say it again, but you know, like what they can do to stand out to you, um, even though I know we did go over these two broad, you know, kind of um areas. Uh, but yeah, what what what do you think startup founders can do that will really really help them if there's any last uh thoughts that you can think of? Yeah, totally.

SPEAKER_01 21:39

I mean, I you know, I've I've in part lived this myself, and I would just say like it is like it can be the ride of a lifetime, and it will push you in ways that you didn't know that you could be pushed, and it is extremely challenging, but it's also extremely rewarding. And so pursue problems that matter to you and and give it your all, and um, you will certainly. come out with some with some good stories from it.

SPEAKER_02 22:02

Yeah, no, I I completely agree with that. Now now uh one one thing that you made me think of is are all people um able to build a startup? Like do you think that anybody can do it or do you think certain personalities um are better for it?

SPEAKER_01 22:20

Yeah I mean like any psychological disposition that people have there are qualities that make people better for certain things versus others and there's certainly traits that make you more apt for the types of things that it that it takes to be a founder. So sure there's got to be some qualities that that like help people lean towards the disposition to to be able to do so but I don't think that there's a right answer to the equation. I think all sorts of like peop people from any background from any psychological disposition from any life experience can do it. You know it's it's just are you are you are you doing it for the right reasons and are you are you willing to put yourself through the gauntlets.

SPEAKER_02 22:58

Exactly um and then like I said uh any anything that you'd like to say to startup founders out there that do want to approach you and then maybe get a chance to have that extra meeting and you know on that note um are there specific areas that have been actually pitched to you that are not your expertise and probably not that you don't I mean it probably would not be best to reach out to you with.

SPEAKER_01 23:23

Yeah totally I mean I as mentioned our fund does hardware and and deep tech across the the spectrum. So if you are building in the physical world in any way shape or form it is potentially in in scope for us and it is almost certainly in scope for deep checks. And so I would say to the degree that it's useful please apply at deep checks we would love to be able to help get you introductions for your fundraise. It's a very easy way to get in touch with me but you can email me at uh john at deepchecks.vc anytime and I'll certainly take a look.

SPEAKER_02 23:50

Great. And here's that standard part so what we love to ask our our guests are some questions that kind of give us a little bit more of who you are. And one of the questions I'd like to start off with is is kind of it's a tough one because a lot of us go through challenges in life and this is in honor of my cousin who unfortunately took her life and you know we hit these points in different parts of our lives but sometimes we don't have other folks to help us in those situations and so it ends up being us. Has there ever been any tougher times in your life that you can think of and how did you get through them? What what what helped you get through those harder times?

SPEAKER_01 24:34

Yeah totally um I I would say certainly and I I I won't go into context on the circumstance but on the context of the getting out from them. You know there's I think when you're in a dark place it's easy to just shroud up into a corner and throw everything else to the side and when you do that then you've you're going even further into the hole and you don't have ways to be able to get yourself out when it probably is the things like eating well and working out and make sure they make sure that you're sleeping and taking care of yourself and like surrounding yourself with people who love you that can help you get through the situation that like is going to be the thing that gets you out of it. And so you have to fight every instinct to just shroud up into a ball and hide from the world and um you know find a way to like through the absolute like desire not to do these things do the things that's that's you know keep you healthy and and and get you out from that time even if it's something that you like don't even want to do in the slightest.

SPEAKER_02 25:38

100% 100% thank you. The next question is um do you have a hero? Any heroes that you can think of that have kind of helped you along your career or life?

SPEAKER_01 25:50

Yeah I mean I I love to see uh archetypes in people and so there's um yeah I think there's I I I look for things in people's lives and especially through things like biography where I can I can pull bits and pieces and see where I want to apply it to my life. And the the closest that I've got to a distinct hero is Ben Franklin. I've read his book back to back many times and for a combination of uh you know he was he was industrious he was virtuous he was a business person he was a scientist he was engaged in the community he was principled uh he lived uh quite a varied and ad and adventurous life um for for for many such reasons I I I admire him and um model some of my ambitions after his well you you're the first person who's actually picked Ben Franklin out of the 50 or 60 people have asked that question so that that that's amazing that's amazing.

SPEAKER_02 26:41

Now the next question is is is related but it isn't necessarily the same and and again you know pick whoever you like or pick who if you have several are there any role models uh that you have as well because I think today it's it feels like we need role models more than ever but but I'm curious if you've had any great uh folks that you look to emulate in that respect. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 27:08

Yeah totally so I mean I I think a lot of the people that I that I respect the most um use their vocation as like a means of fulfilling the vision that they see for the world in a broader context than that which the vocation itself could do. And so this is things like you know you may have started a business in that certain domain but that business also happens to be the platform by which you go do policy work in that area or you go speak at conferences or you like are a part of the broader ecosystem that is pushing towards the vision of the world that you that you care most about. And one of the most resounding examples I can give is uh one of my favorite books is Let My People Go Surfing by uh Yvonne uh Queenard the um uh Patagonia founder and littered throughout that book are choices of value that he has made in the way that he is building his business and living his life that run much deeper than what the business is itself there. They're true and genuine expressions of value that are arguably the thing that made the business as as incredible as it was. And so people like that who are like genuinely able to live to a strong sense of of the virtue that they that they care about in the world and the the thing that they pursue it with is like the vehicle but not the end by which they pursue those ambitions is really inspiring to me.

SPEAKER_02 28:36

So not not to discount the other person who did bring up this individual you speak of but so you are the second person who talked about him but you elaborated and articulated really well. So thank you for that and uh a reminder to our listeners um this person seems to be someone to to look up to so awesome all right last question very easy what do you like to eat uh John or what what what are some of your favorite restaurants uh we like to ask our guests yeah uh so I uh it's actually been a while since I've had them I grew up loving a good rack of ribs and I live in Austin Texas now so I'll end on that answer again that's awesome uh yeah we live in the barbecue capital of the world or at least one of them uh I I I have been told um I've been to Salt Lick I think once and then I was researching a few other places I don't know if you've had a chance have you been doing any of the barbecue kind of tour yet not yet Terry Black's yeah Terry Black's couple times awesome well I know we said it multiple times throughout the interview um you know and how to reach out to you but are you also available on LinkedIn despite all the spam or what what's the best way to reach you? Is it the email or any other route?

SPEAKER_00 29:50

Yeah yeah I'd I'd be on LinkedIn but uh email's the easiest way to get in touch with me okay and and I imagine you're yeah uh yeah John at jeepdeepchecks.vc perfect perfect and and and I imagine you're you're open to having more interviews on a podcast uh when the time makes sense right absolutely all right well awesome thank you so much john for your time today and it's been you know great getting to know you and also uh understanding more about the VC part of this industry thank you Brendan it's been a pleasure I'm a version of an ever single if your calendar isn't already set you're missing out on startup wins industry leaders top advisors and incredible tips await come back for future great episodes and entertaining guests and come back for more insider strategies and incredible stories from the brightest VCs founders and operator experts we're bringing you the best in the business twice a month hit that bell and stay winning with startup wins see you soon