REPORT: Increasing drone attacks on Zawiya risk triggering an oil shutdown and wider conflict in western Libya

Repeated drone strikes and rising militia rivalries in Zawiya pose a strategic threat to Libya’s key oil infrastructure.

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Increasing drone attacks on Zawiya risk triggering an oil shutdown and wider conflict in western Libya. Executive Summary. Heightened tensions between militias have coincided with unprecedented drone strikes on strategic oil facilities in Zawiya that pose a risk of further escalation, including the potential for a shutdown in refinery operations and an offensive by forces closely aligned with the Tripoli-based government. Drone attacks have increased amid heightened power struggles. On August 11, Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation reported that explosive-laden drones struck two diesel storage tanks at Libya's largest operating oil refinery at the Zawiya Oil Complex in the coastal city of Zawiya, about 47 kilometers west of the capital, Tripoli. The incidents marked the latest in a series of drone attacks recorded in Zawiya over four consecutive days, following an FPV drone attack that punctured a tank containing unprocessed naphtha on August 8, a strike on a water desalination plant the following day, and a separate incident in which a tank holding some 4.5 million liters of gasoline was hit on August 10th. Although no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks and Libyan authorities have not reported any fatalities, ACLED data show that these attacks constitute an unprecedented string of drone strikes in Zawiya. They also come amid heightened tensions between rival militias in the city, whose influence extends beyond Zawiah's borders. At the center of these local power struggles is Mohammad Barun and the armed groups under his command on one side and several rival factions on the other, including Othman al-Lahab's Al-Silah Brigade and Al-Nasser Brigade, as well as the Petroleum Facilities Guard led by Mohammed Kashlav. So far in 2026, ACLED records over 30 armed clashes in Zawiya, most of them brief and triggered by persistent disputes over territorial control, the illicit economy, including fuel smuggling, and tit-for-tat attacks. Some of the most intense clashes, including one on August 4 between Bahroun's and Lahab's forces, and another on 8 May between Bahroun's and Kashlav's forces, extended to areas around the oil refinery and already made use of drones. Outlook latest strikes heightened the risk of a halt in oil refinery operations and an offensive by state-aligned forces. Xavier's high levels of internal tension, the unprecedented scale of these latest attacks, and the national importance of the city's oil facilities all increased the likelihood of further escalation in the immediate term. This could include an attempt by forces more closely aligned with the Tripoli-based government to launch an offensive in the city to bring it under tighter control, a move that would likely spill over beyond Xavier. The NOC's board of directors has already declared a state of maximum alert and warned that, if the attacks continue, it will be forced to declare force majeure and halt operations at the refinery.