Crypto Guys Trade Oil | EP 46

Talking:

• BTC rips to $70K as $210M shorts get wiped
• Saylor buys $1.28B BTC
• Do AI agents even need crypto?

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

Morning, good evening, good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to Risk On, episode 35, where uh or no, episode 46, Jesus. I don't know where I got 35 from. Uh where our only goal today is to have more listeners than Swizzle's arch nemesis Ben Cowan. Um as you can see here, he only has 298 viewers, which is like, you know, for a guy as prolific as Ben Cowan is at bear posting, you would think a couple more people might tune in. Um not today because dirty bears aren't well liked. You know, when you have a face like that, you know.

SPEAKER_01 0:36

Let's not talk too much shit. His his listener count is going up, and as I mentioned last show, I was not trying to create beef. I said he's been right, and I have great respect for Ben Cowan. He did not enjoy uh he did watch the clip and did not enjoy the clip. Um, my apolog my sincerest apologies to Ben Cowan. I I have nothing against you. I told you I respect you greatly. Um, but yeah, I extended the olive branch. We'll see, we'll see how it plays out. Um, it would be nice to get more listeners than him here, though. Uh I can't say I'd be mad about that.

SPEAKER_03 1:11

Yeah, he didn't like that tweet. He didn't like that tweet. I'm not surprised to be fair. We were laughing at his hairline. Not ideal. Um not nice of us.

SPEAKER_01 1:19

We can it wasn't our best work. Um wasn't you know the crazy thing was I was I probably shouldn't even say this. I was driving, uh I was driving through the mountains, so my service was kind of spotty, and I I got like a string of a bunch of notifications, and I kind of saw the initial one and I assumed it was like other people talking about it and then seen it. But it was actually I got notifications because he made a bunch of drafts and he like posted and then deleted and then posted and deleted like different iterations of him saying my PFP was stupid, which I agree. My PFP is pretty dumb, but I love it. Uh but yeah, he he made like seven or three or four different uh posts before he decided which one, which anti-swizzle one he was gonna like.

SPEAKER_03 2:02

So yeah, I saw that. What did he delete? Did he delete all of them in the end?

SPEAKER_02 2:08

He deleted a few and then he kept one up. Let's go. He ended up going with this bad boy. Imagine sitting around talking shit about my profile picture, and then yours is this, and he mocked Swizzle Suey.

SPEAKER_01 2:31

I'm just I'm just supporting local artists, right? Who was our guy? Uh literally one of the nicest people I've ever met. I'm trying uh Petricky. Petricky, yeah. One of the nicest salt of the earth people. I support artists in the space, you know? And uh for him.

SPEAKER_02 2:48

Callan hates the small guy, the little guy. I think that's the narrative here, right?

SPEAKER_03 2:53

Yeah, hates the small guy, hate swizzle, big big swizzle hater.

SPEAKER_02 2:57

Big swizzle hater.

SPEAKER_03 2:58

Imagine sitting around talking about this. Damn, it's not ideal. We did laugh at his headline, so maybe deserved. So maybe deserved.

SPEAKER_01 3:06

My hairline's not great on my PFP either. So uh John's taking stair point. We can move on. I'm sorry, Ben. Sorry.

SPEAKER_02 3:15

We're we're sorry, Ben.

SPEAKER_03 3:16

We're deeply sorry, Ben. And he was right. He is right. Uh his bear thesis is uh is taking us out right now. Mark it's shit in the bed, and we were laughing at him, so maybe we should have to be able to do that.

SPEAKER_01 3:25

Woke up this morning to him being even more right, actually.

SPEAKER_03 3:28

So disaster, really.

SPEAKER_01 3:30

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 3:30

Absolute disaster. We've got Trump saying Trump simultaneously saying the war is gonna last until September, and then also saying that the war is a 12 or 15 out of 10 in terms of success, and he would bomb again, and then also saying that Cuba's gonna fall soon.

SPEAKER_01 3:48

All in 48 hours. He's talking Cuba now. I didn't see that.

SPEAKER_02 3:54

He's talking Cuba, but you go better, he's just banging down dictators one by one. And the market is loving it too.

SPEAKER_03 4:02

Yeah, it's loving it, it's loving it. I'm loving it here as well. Obviously, can't leave.

SPEAKER_02 4:07

Um is there any indication of when you can leave?

SPEAKER_03 4:10

I have no idea, man. I have no idea. As you guys, as you both know, I've been going through the ring of food poisoning in the last 24 hours, so I've kind of been checked out, just you know, casual missile alerts on the phone. Um you sent us the missile alert yesterday. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It doesn't get better than that.

SPEAKER_01 4:26

So for those of you who weren't on last uh on Tuesday, um, Sats is stuck in Dubai. Uh he he's gone through food poisoning. His gym that he's been working out at uh was literally bombed. Uh it was a small bomb, so he was fine. Uh small bomb. But uh and he's gotten kicked out of two Airbnbs now, so not a not a great week. They're kicking you out of your Airbnbs too.

SPEAKER_03 4:54

Well, it's just like we have we have a week, and then yeah, that they they have to move people on because I've got people booked, and I'm trying to extend, and it's like no, we can't extend, so I've got move Airbnb every week right now. It's just a massive shambles, man. I'm yeah, like I said this before before the show is I'd never thought I'd say this, but I'm trying to be back in the UK right now. I never thought I would say that.

SPEAKER_02 5:14

Really, yeah. I feel like people shit on the UK, they shit on it like all these like American cities. Now I'm gonna fall into this trap too because you have to pay taxes and the weather is crappy. But you don't have to be neighbors with Iran. That is a positive positive, positive, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 5:32

Some what people overlook, um, and then you end up like me, some sort of clown sat in Dubai right now, can't leave, uh dreaming of being cold.

SPEAKER_01 5:42

So you know, you know, the one thing that has been spoken of though is every time we talk about FOMO and our trading on stream, SATS has always had the excuse. I'm in the UK, I can't trade on FOMO. I don't really know what the excuse is now. You're you're in the Middle East, man.

SPEAKER_02 5:58

You could show us how it's done.

SPEAKER_03 5:59

Yeah, see trade. Should I load up a 10K account? See how see how quickly I can run that shit down.

SPEAKER_01 6:05

As long as you do better than Wood in our risk on account.

SPEAKER_02 6:07

I think that's when it's zero for uh No, we still have I'm down 60%. All right.

SPEAKER_03 6:12

No, would you have that whole bag, bro? Like he just he he moves on his own. He moves Wood moves as a solo mover.

SPEAKER_02 6:17

You guys are you guys are hard to track down, you know, and when there are things happening and in in the heat of the moment, you know, the market moves quickly. I move quickly. You guys are slow unk boomers. Real. What can I say? I'm on top of things. 60% down. You are on top of things. 60% down. But people want to hear the legendary sets trade, see them trade.

SPEAKER_03 6:41

Maybe I had my track wallet. Uh, what was what was big the like the beginning of the cycle, like for the first six months, and then yeah, I started uh buying and selling things uh pretty fast, and that didn't go down a treat. So I was like, maybe I should get off the doc's wallet. Yeah, never went back.

SPEAKER_02 6:57

Doc's wallets are tough. I I I do think this is a good opportunity to chat about like the state of the trenches last night. Because I know Swizzle kind of got into an argument with some people last night about a coin, and then I've had some ridiculous things said to me. Like, there are still people really actively trading this market, like there's some chats where scans are happening left and right, um, but every runner is just like going to then like the floors are just horrible right now. You got bean at like 5 million, and that's like the biggest thing in the market right now, uh, which is really sad to say. Punch is at 6.8 million now, down from 55.

SPEAKER_03 7:30

What? Yeah, oh wow, I didn't know. Jesus Christ, yeah. Punch got taken out back, man. Gorilla Capital took that out back.

unknown 7:39

Gorilla Capital.

SPEAKER_02 7:41

Conway is at 400k last night, and I had I had uh our girl Play-Doh tell me that that uh Conway was a disaster. It should have done so much better, it had supply in such great hands, and it topped at 12 and it's now at 400k. And I was like, excuse me, and she was like, Yeah, it had supply in great hands. I was like, dude, it's at 400k. What the fuck are you talking about?

SPEAKER_03 8:02

It had supply was in fantastic hands, they just happened to have sold.

SPEAKER_02 8:06

But it seems like every coin everybody is saying right now supply, like supply control, supply control, supply control, but nobody can control the fucking supply.

SPEAKER_03 8:16

Yeah, yeah, that's it. Yeah, I think um I think the current reality of the trenches is that a lot of people just don't have the same size they do, they did back then. Um, and that it comes down to that's why the ceilings are low because people see a thousand dollars right now and they insta-cell. Back in the day, everyone had six-figure ports, so it was okay to hang on to a low four-fig, fucking even mid five-fig positions. Um, but now everyone everyone sees like four hundred dollars and they're like, wrap it up. I'm out, I'm out, I'm done. Um, it's a tough market. It's a tough trenches are in a tough spot.

SPEAKER_01 8:54

And this is this is the point I made uh last night when we were talking to some people. Um, like I'm not actively trading this market. I know wood is not. Sats, I don't believe I mean, I know you're kind of working on trying trying to help with the infrastructure layer, but like you have even actively stated, like, hey, I I am with one of these launch pads running product, and I'm saying there's not much worth trading. I think like the I didn't even realize there was a subset of people that were like so actively trading it still, but there clearly is. And my point was like, look, we were people like us, uh, or or you know, there's a bunch of others who were these marginal buyers who basically they didn't play any of these micro trench type things, and then they would wait for um basically like the confirmation of a meta, confirmation of like some type of sustained um mind share on something. And then they would, these types of traders would be the marginal buyers who would enter at higher levels, and then you'd almost pass it on from the trenchers, quote unquote trenchers, to like now it's a real token that has been established that people trade as opposed to like the trench gambling. Um, I think those marginal buyers are gone, have been gone for quite some time now. Or if there are any left, there's only a few of them left, and they'll probably be out of money soon because they get they're the ones just getting farmed. And the point of that is to say, like, there's just no incentive for those types of traders to be on right now because the risk reward does not add up because they're looking to put size into things, and you cannot put size into anything right now, regardless of what your definition of size is. I'd say anything that you get, you know, five figures plus, like these just aren't liquid trades, and like there's 80%, 80 to 90 percent downside imminently, and at best, you're looking for a two to three X, uh, and you have no idea when the rug's gonna be pulled. And so I just don't think there's conditions that make sense. The marginal buyers have all kind of been extracted away, or they realized, you know, we're we're we're just gonna step away until better conditions arise. We all hope better conditions arise and you can get back to some of this on-chain trading. But right now, like that system, like the the symbiosis of of the on-chain ecosystem is broken because like you only have the trench gamblers, you don't have what I would consider to be like traders who are going to like you know kind of step in once they see there's there's something there with some continuity and sustainability. Everything's done after 48 hours.

SPEAKER_03 11:28

Yeah, yeah. And uh what's the last coin we did see like last over a week right now? Like, I don't even yeah, punch, that was the last thing, and uh but that didn't even last for a week.

SPEAKER_01 11:38

It hit it hit a high, and then it there was no second leg, it's just been a crawl down. Like if there was any type of like rebound attempt, it lasted for maybe 30 minutes, hour, two hours, and that doesn't count. So um I would say, like, you know, that's just where we are in the market, and that's kind of how it's been for a while.

SPEAKER_03 12:00

You know what's really interesting how Penguin played out, like now in hindsight, you look back and penguin ran to a hundred plus mil, and we didn't have a single thing really happen after that, apart from apart from punch. And it's like, yeah, well, look back then, like we used to have a hundred mil, two hundred mil runner. You'd have all these different coins spawn after it. We just didn't have any of that.

SPEAKER_02 12:21

Um with mudang, we had the penguin afterwards, we had the elephant afterwards, we had all these betas of mudang, and we just didn't see that with penguin.

SPEAKER_01 12:31

But that, but see, this is where I actually think this is the fundamental difference. And like, I think most people who have been trading on-chain for a long time don't even realize because they don't see the change every day. I don't think they realize how their like psychological approach to everything has changed. Like it everyone is fundamentally acting differently, in the sense that like what you would have had in the old days with Wiff or you know, whatever, was though there would be significant retraces on those coins. The the derivatives or betas or new things would pop up, and then people would would basically flip those and they would rotate back, and you would have the second leg uh of you know, it was like an ecosystem almost, and there were established coins to trade that people use TA on, all this stuff. They just move on to the next thing now and they don't come back, and therefore it's this vicious cycle where you know it gets smaller and smaller and smaller because like that doesn't exist anymore. There's no rotation back. It's just like if I wasn't in this thing early, I can never support that token. I have to find the next one. And that used to be the case when it was at 50 million, and now it's the case when it's at like 50k, 50 million like and and so that mentality has a toll that that kind of carries throughout everything. And and I don't think people actually realize that they are all part of that as well. It just kind of slowly happened little by little, and now here we are.

SPEAKER_03 13:58

Yeah, it's tough, it's a tough reality where we are. Um, we spoke about this before the show as well, like just the state of where CT is right now. Um, and I was saying, like CT has changed so much in the last six months, and I think the main thing what's changed is people stopped really getting paid to shill and they started getting paid to FUD. And I think that's changed the whole dynamic of how CT is right now, and it's become a very toxic place. But once again, bear market stuff, like this is just what happens. But yeah, this whole this whole game of paying to FUD and I don't know, man, it's just I'm not a fan of it. It's made at least the trenches subsection of CT quite uh quite fucking exhausting.

SPEAKER_02 14:40

So yeah, I mean CT is a brutal place to be right now. I mean, you don't know who is being paid because back in the day, if people were shilling things, you could uh often assume that they were being paid to do so, but now with the invention of being paid to FUD, you just have no it just feels like everybody is incentivized both ways now, and you have no idea who's bought, who's not bought, who who sold their account. I was asked to fucking um be a escrow for someone selling their Twitter account recently. I just like didn't realize that like people were selling Twitter accounts like left and right. Yeah, I just didn't realize that was a thing. Um and so now it's like you don't know who who owns these accounts anymore, what their motives are. Um and like during bear markets is when a lot of these accounts get sold too, right? Because people need money or whatever it is. Um and so between people selling their accounts, advent of being paid to FUD, paid to show, uh, you don't know who's real and who's not real anymore, and you don't know who's incentivized to say what anymore. And ever and everybody's just mad all the time. It just feels like you don't know what's real and everybody's fighting, and it's a really sad place. Um and I think like that was a big reason why we started to to do this show, right? I think we felt that there wasn't there weren't enough people like speaking genuinely just like their opinions and like not with any sort of incentive behind it. Um and I think you know, credit to us a little bit, we've we've managed to kind of just like speak our mind, stay truthful, and not really like I don't know, I don't take money to do anything. Um I don't think you guys do either. So like that's great. And I think Greg thankfully he said something really nice to us the other day. How I'm gonna shill our pod here a little bit. He said how you know watching our show, it's better than going on CT. And that really had us had me thinking about like what the fuck happened to the crypto Twitter we love. Um and do you guys think it can come back?

SPEAKER_03 16:46

I think it can come back, but like it's gonna take a lot of time. Uh it's gonna take a lot of time. I I feel like the the people we had last cycle on CT have sort of like just disappeared. They just uh they retired or they just they got sick of the space and uh and sort of packed up. Um and now this new gen of CT, I I guess it's the trench CT or whatever. Yeah, everyone's uh I guess FUD for hire. Um and it makes the place very disingenuous, and not to say that it's been the most genuine place ever before, but like yeah, the idea of getting paid to FUD just isn't it, it just creates this whole like FOMO, for example. Um I think that's the the key example. I know we're fucking we're uh the sponsor of the show, but when they do fuck up, we will be the first to mention it. Um but like on the timeline, I think it's very, very clear there's some people getting paid to FUD FOMO. Um and it just yeah, it makes the what we knew of CT just I don't know, it just doesn't it doesn't go, oh I want to get on here and uh you know soak up some information from smart people or something along M lines because you open up the timeline, it's just some guy getting paid to shit on X platform or X compare. It's just it's boring, man.

SPEAKER_01 18:02

Yeah, my like my re my um attempt at like navigating through this right now has kind of and I don't know if it's the right way to do it because certainly like I'm going to end up missing things, I'm not gonna have like up-to-date information on a lot of what's going on, especially on chain. But like I I've just been trying to, and it's it's easier said than done, but I've been trying to cleanse the timeline that I have where basically if I see like shilling or fudding of whatever, anything, companies, tokens, whatever, I'm just trying to like clear that out and I'm trying to focus on following people who are posting more objective content and whether and it can be directionally biased, but like if they're posting TA-based stuff, um, you know, macro views, like things that I can kind of latch on to and I can know like that person may be right or wrong, but they're they're putting some evidence and and like you know, like something like that's a little bit more um just like tangible in front of me. I want to see that stuff. And then like I'm gonna just hope that the timeline gets cleansed, where you're gonna start seeing the people who are a little bit more authentic start to rise to the top, probably have to wait until market conditions get better to kind of see people rise up and gain traction and credibility again. Um, it is hard to do though, with the way the algorithm has been lately, because you go, you know, click a link and follow something that someone sends that's one of these, you know, people that are clearly a paid chill or footer or whatever, and then they keep popping up on your timeline, even if you don't follow them. So it's a little bit easier said than done to do, but like I'm trying to focus on people who are trying to provide value, um, a more objective value. Um, and I think that's probably the way to go until we see a little bit of cleansing in the timeline and some of this stuff washes out.

SPEAKER_03 19:52

I just I don't know what if it if it will wash out, you know. I hope it fucking does, but yeah, I think it's just gonna take a get to the point of where people just become very, very hyper-aware of what's going on. I think it's getting there.

SPEAKER_01 20:04

It's alright. I think it's happening though, right? Like there's a dis people are becoming desensitized to it where it's like they see this stuff and it's like I'm just gonna ignore it because this guy's just constantly doing this stuff, you know.

SPEAKER_03 20:14

Yeah, there's very, very specific accounts who you see uh you know, and they still do it, and then you call them out on it and then they like fuck with you over it.

SPEAKER_01 20:21

And we don't reference these accounts, we're not going to because we don't really want to shine any more attention on it. We just want to focus on the news, we want to focus on, you know, we'll give you our opinions, but like um it's really based on just like what we're seeing happening, and uh there's not an incentive for it. We're just trying to help here.

SPEAKER_02 20:38

Yeah, my favorite thing though was Greg calling Sats an unk when Sats is like two years old. Yeah, real shit. Real shit. As we sit here talking about uh reminiscing over the old days of CT as if we were unks. Um but yeah, you know, who knows? You know, price pr price going up uh certainly fixes a lot of things, and in a bull market, you know, uh uh people aren't really funning anything. But I do think the advent of the vamp was when the negativity started. I think we can trace back all this shit to the vamp, to vamp culture, which is still happening today, which is just so crazy. Every coin there's 20 of them were vamping stuff, but it feels like when vamping coins started is kind of when all this funding started because you had incentive for other people's bags to do poorly. Whereas historically there weren't enough coins, and if there was one good there, there was one doge, like we wanted that doge to do well. We all bought the same fucking doge. Whereas today there's 55 of them, if not more, and we're all fudding the other persons because we all want to be early to something. Um I think that it all it all goes back to Pump Fun, right? And the advent of this stuff. Um but yeah, yeah, who knows? Maybe we'll get out of it, but people will build through the bear market. Say had a really good tweet the other day how, like, right now is when you just want to keep building things. And I think our version is. Building and contributing to the space is going to be through this show. People will build new products, and our goal is to keep building through this. Yeah. In another note, did you guys check out uh what Meteora did with their new dynamic terminal?

SPEAKER_01 22:17

I've been meaning to play around with it. I actually think it's pretty interesting. Um you want to give the rundown on it?

SPEAKER_02 22:23

Yeah, quick rundown of it. Soji was on the show a few weeks ago. He kind of let us know this was coming, but essentially they are trying to change the way people view LPing, right? And we talked about this. Like when when people think about pools and about LPing, they think about impermanent loss mostly. And they don't really have clarity into like how their position is doing, whether they're up money or down money or whatever. So this so they made a few changes um to it and made it look more like a terminal, um, which I think uh whether or not you think it's good or bad, I think I think more people should be buying and selling coins using pools because it's a great way to enter and exit things without one, without hurting a chart, two without realizing slippage, three, you can earn fees while doing it. Like it's an absolute no-brainer to enter and exit coins you want to, especi especially with size, using using meteor or using pools or LPing. Um, but I think there's just a huge mental hurdle to it because I think last cycle, at least for me, I was so busy in these polygon like APY farms getting wrecked half the time that like impermanent loss was like such a terrifying thing for me to have to overcome. Um, and then now there's all these tools and it feels a little more complicated. So I think this is a really good step in the right direction to kind of normalize LPing and create a product that people who are trading on Axiom or Padger or whatever these terminals are called nowadays, um they can kind of see and relate to more. Um I think it's a good step, I think it's a step in the right direction. Um I've try I've gotten mixed reviews, some people don't like it. Some people think it's too clunky, some people think it's hard to understand. A lot of the old users dislike it, but they're trying to change the conversation around it and they're building something and they're trying to build new shit, which I think is is good.

SPEAKER_03 24:21

Yeah, I don't think that can be a negative. I'm gonna give it a go actually. Uh I don't know what coin I'm gonna fucking use it on yet.

SPEAKER_02 24:27

That's a problem, right? Well, you'd have to own a coin first set.

SPEAKER_03 24:33

Very true. That's uh big hurdle. It's a big hurdle. You've actually got to open it up and buy it and decide there's a good token, which is uh mission impossible in this market right now.

SPEAKER_01 24:43

I do think it sheds light on an interesting issue, and like you know, Soju and the team are like really clearly like attacking it head on. Um, but it's like I I think the old like the the people who are their their user base, the people who actually are comfortable with and have been using out like that feature to LP, like I think the product for for that subset of people is pretty straightforward and simple, and they've gotten used to how they use it. And now they're like, you know, Meteor is like, hey, we need to change this in a way that's approachable to this like newer generation of trading, and we we want to make it like that that terminal experience that is what obviously has picked up Steam. Um it's just like two different subsets of users. So it's like, how do we acquire, you know, this new user base and make this more approachable to everybody without kind of alienating the the user base we have? Uh it's kind of a tricky problem to solve. Um, I haven't used this new dynamic terminal yet. I'm actually, I'll probably try it out this weekend. Um, but I'm I'm intrigued to see how it plays out and like, you know, I'm sure they'll respond to feedback. But like this is interesting and it sort of shows you the way everything is trending, right? Like everyone has to kind of like get on board and accept, hey, everyone's trying to do things faster with less patience, like less friction, and and you got to do that now. And if you're not building a product that represents that, then you know the what's left of on-chain traders probably aren't going to identify with it. Um yeah, it's interesting.

SPEAKER_02 26:19

Yeah, it's exactly right. You need to adapt to what people become popular. And if you're not, then you need to make something like you know, I I think the next step here will be to build something as simple as FOMA.

unknown 26:31

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 26:31

Where you just click a few buttons and it gives you suggestions, and and then all of a sudden you're LP and you're doing it cross-chain and you're doing all this stuff.

SPEAKER_01 26:40

I hope they can do this and retain the core like value prop of the product, though, right? Where like you're still achieving the same thing, you're providing liquidity to the tokens and you're making it a little more um effective in terms of entries and exits. Yeah, but but making the process easier. That would be great. I'm sure they will.

SPEAKER_02 27:00

Another thing we never talked about, speaking of Meteora, is last week, because we didn't we we we weren't on Friday, there was the whole scandal of Axiom, right? And everyone thought it was gonna be Met who was gonna go down for it. And this was right after we had Soju on the show, and we were like, ah, I don't know what's gonna happen here. And it turned out to not be Met, and it was it was it was it it was somebody else. But this has I've this made me think a lot about this, which was the second this happened, everybody starts pointing to a polymarket um that came up on this, which was oh, who um who's gonna who is Zach XPT gonna have? And it came out that someone related to Axiom who was then fired made like a couple hundred grand off of this polymarket thing. And all of crypto twitters losing their mind over someone making$200,000. Like$200,000 is like insane. Like people trade, like I we've all made lost more than that on coins before. Like there's not even the liquidity to buy enough of anything on polymarket outside of sports, right? Sports is different. Um, but when you look at anything, if you look at like their political stuff, you look at their crypto-related things, um, there's no liquidity. You get slipped buying a hundred dollars of something in most of this stuff. Like there's a pool out there today that I was looking at um for like uh who's gonna be outed from the Trump administration in 2026. It had lifetime volume. Wait, well, look at this the DHS hearing. Well, we're seeing last week, yeah. Last week, you know,$200,000 of all-time volume. We have shit coins doing$200,000 of volume in two minutes on the Solana blockchain. And here we are, like saying that Colchi and Poly Market are gonna like change the way people hedge risk in the world. And they're so illiquid, and people like their first thing to do is to go claim that people are insider trading on these things, but like you can't even make meaningful money on this shit. I I I'm just like I really am struggling to understand the valuations of these things, and maybe I'm short-sighted, but like, is I just don't think there's even the appetite to gamble on this stuff. I don't know anybody who uses polymarket or college.

SPEAKER_03 29:19

I don't either.

SPEAKER_01 29:20

I don't either well people people are using it. Like, you know, there was the uh, I don't know if you guys saw during the State of the Union, there was like um now again, some of the stuff you're used to trading, you might not think this is crazy, but it was like$25 million worth of volume uh traded on mention markets of words people thought Trump was gonna say during the State of the Union. So are those numbers astronomical? No, but for the fact that it's this tiny niche thing that, you know, is subject to just what is gonna come out of someone's mouth and it's all instantaneous to the minute stuff. Like, I think that's why the narrative the prevailing narrative has taken over of like the financialization of everything, not just equities markets or crypto markets or whatever, but like we're financializing everything. And that's the narrative that's being pushed. I think yes to your guys' points. Like there's a lot of people, go back to the shill, you know, paid shill conversation. Like, there's a lot of people who are talking about this stuff who have Calci badges or polymarket badges on X. And we don't know if they're really actually making bets or maybe they're making$5 wagers and everything. Um, I think you look at sports and I think there's a clear uh a clear understanding of me of like, okay, why is it this attractive? And there is much more liquidity. Like 80% of uh 80% of the liquidity on Cal She is through sports markets. Uh, last time I checked. And like what you see is like, okay, that's peer-to-peer. There's no house taking an edge. It's just like the odds change in accordance to who decides to bet on what. And I think there's something that's very attractive about that concept that you have peer-to-peer uh like betting and settlement as opposed to um, you know, you're you're betting against the house and there's a VIG and all that stuff. Once you abstract out of that and you get to politics and mentions and everything, it's like, yeah, like it's it's tough to see the the liquidity being like being market made and having all this deep, you know, um like trust, trustable um kind of like backing to it because um there's so many liabilities towards it. And it's just like uh, you know, if someone is betting a large amount of money, why are they betting so much money on something like that? Um that's at least for the short-term markets. I can understand the 2028 political, you know, presidential election or whatever, but the stuff you're referring to would, it's definitely like, yeah, I just don't see how that becomes this, you know, uh organic daily activity that creates asymmetric returns. There's not enough money or backing in it.

SPEAKER_03 31:55

Yeah, that that uh screenshot would put in the group chat of the hundred getting slipped on a hundred dollar buy.

SPEAKER_01 32:01

So I yeah, we we did this. It was like it actually doesn't even tell you how much what that slippage is, but it's concerning if if you can't put$100 on something and not get slipped. Um, I don't know how you how people trade this, you know, day trade this stuff. Um but supposedly it's happening, it's just not in large uh notion, not large notional amounts.

SPEAKER_03 32:23

That that was one of the craziest bits of CT this side as well when everyone got the couchy badges.

SPEAKER_02 32:28

Yeah, people were trading ten dollars because they're and and we were like all mocking them because they had no edge, but like it turns out that that they just didn't have enough liquidity to trade anything. You couldn't put more than ten dollars into things and you couldn't actively trade it. There's nothing to actively I mean you you can't have an edge on every single thing going on in the world, right?

SPEAKER_01 32:48

Now the average person will have fun. You know, we remember uh one of our friends was betting on dancing with the stars on polymarket. Uh and it was like, you know, you put ten dollars on that, maybe that's like a fun thing to do on the couch or whatever. But you know, there's a difference if you're talking about this becoming like a true, you know, financial, you know, uh like in institutionalized platform, uh, you're gonna have to find a way to have more liquidity with these things.

SPEAKER_03 33:16

Wasn't that Y22? Betting on Dark Files, man. What a guy. What a guy.

SPEAKER_02 33:21

But like the valuations the valuations here are crazy. You got Calchi at 11 billion and polymarket is similar around 11 billion. They're both let me see, poly polymarket valued at nine between nine and fifteen. Jesus. Like, what is like going on to justify well?

SPEAKER_01 33:40

I think I think again predominantly sports, sports, politics, like longer time horizon politics. Yep. Um, those things are real, I think. And uh again, the peer-to-peer settlement is very intriguing, but a lot of the narrative around financialize everything, you can bet on anything at any moment. That's a sexy narrative. And I don't know if that part is as sticky as um you know they want to make it out to be right now.

SPEAKER_02 34:08

Yeah, I feel like it's so prevalent here on CT, and then I go walk around outside or talk to my neighbors. I've never heard anybody talk about polymarket or calci in real life before.

SPEAKER_03 34:16

I've heard polymarket, I haven't heard Calchi.

SPEAKER_01 34:19

So the question is, are we early to it? Is this really a trend that's happening and it's just early, and these are household names a year from now, or is this like a small bubble that's kind of overhyped in a small community?

SPEAKER_03 34:33

I think it's a little overhyped. I think it has been from the start. Um, like the idea, the whole idea of prediction markets seems so good, like you said, it's a sexy idea. But in practice, yeah, these markets are not liquid. And yeah, I don't know. People like people love to pitch it as it's not a crypto product, though, doesn't it? That's the whole thing. Like polymarket doesn't seem like a crypto product.

SPEAKER_01 34:55

Uh well, their stuff is getting embedded into news streams. You got CNN has polymarket odds on the bottom ticker, you know. It's like if it, you know, on one hand with elections, like it's proving to be a more accurate, those lines are more accurate than traditional polling. So, like, that's interesting, right? Um, what does that mean? I don't know what that exactly means for their like growth proposition, but like it's very, you know, it seemed there seems to be something there, the fact that it's like an gives you more accurate predictions of things that are gonna happen because when people put money behind these statements, it's like you know, they're they're looking to put money where there's an edge. And so, in a way, the insider activity is almost like beneficial for like news markets to basically abstract what's actually happening.

SPEAKER_02 35:43

Yeah, I yeah, it's just weird to me how people freak out about the insider trading activity when it's like people aren't making that much money off of it, like you know, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 35:52

I think it's more principle though though, isn't it?

SPEAKER_02 35:54

Yeah, yeah, maybe people and crypto crypto people being principled is absolutely comical.

SPEAKER_03 36:00

Yeah, that's very true as well.

SPEAKER_02 36:01

Like it's the greatest thing in the world seeing some seeing the people that are being principled about it. Um, we've all done things we're not proud of before, probably, but like you know, uh the people who are really outspoken about it, I feel like tend to have done a lot of things that you should really not be proud about. Um so that's just been my narrative. Speaking of crazy valuations, Tether is just running around tossing money at everything that walks, it looks like you guys think they just put money into eight sleep since Tether's investing in sleep companies now.

SPEAKER_03 36:36

Good product though.

SPEAKER_02 36:37

You're an eight sleep guy?

SPEAKER_01 36:38

Are you an eight sleep guy?

SPEAKER_03 36:39

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I am, I am. Uh I couldn't recommend highly enough. Is uh is Game Changer. If you haven't got one, definitely go buy one, and I'm not sponsored. Sponsor us.

SPEAKER_01 36:49

We have to question everything now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anything that gets that gets uh promoted here, we gotta know if you're being paid.

SPEAKER_02 36:56

Yeah. And then then they put and then tether put 200 million into WAP, I believe.

SPEAKER_03 37:02

That's an interesting one.

SPEAKER_02 37:04

Have you guys got to do it?

SPEAKER_01 37:05

I still don't understand what WAP is. Set you tell us.

SPEAKER_03 37:08

Yeah, it's like a it's like you get paid, you can get paid for clipping. It's like you can sell courses through there. Like it's been around for a while now. Um I know some it's got decent leadership. I know that. Like uh there's a lot of big people leading it. Um I don't know if you guys are familiar with Ivan Gadsey, but yeah, he's a guy there. Um big course guy, big course guy. Um, but yeah, it's an interesting one. I haven't really delved into the product and used it myself, but I remember Believe had a partnership at one point with them. Take that as you as you will. Uh that was an interesting one. I remember shilling that like it was uh like we just discovered bread. Uh not my proudest moment. Um yeah.

SPEAKER_01 37:54

So here's so here's one interesting thing. Like, I'm just kind of thinking about this as we talk about it, but tether, like our understanding of what tether is as an entity, I feel like is kind of changing in real time. Yes, because we know of tether as like the stable coin issuer, right? And like it's this crazy lean company. Not I don't know how many employees they have. Like a year ago, where I think they had like 20 or 30 employees or something something crazy like that, less than 100. They they've probably made you know somewhere around north of 13 billion dollars uh in their you know company treasury off of their stablecoin business. But now they've started basically just like investing in all these consumer products. So this one yesterday with eight sleep was kind of the big talking point because they're in the mattress game now, I guess. You guys remember they did Rumble? Uh yeah, Sats. You probably know Rumble. It's like a streaming platform, streaming video platform. This again, WAP. I don't know. They bought stake in uh Juventus, the soccer team. Um, I know Paolo's Italian. So, but basically, like this is kind of uncharted territory where it's like there's this core business that's a stablecoin issuer, and then they started adding, you know, they have a bunch of gold and bitcoin on their balance sheet. They're the largest private gold owner in the world. That's insane. But like, I don't I don't think they run like a traditional company. I could be wrong. I don't think there's like shareholders and board oversight. It's it's kind of just Paulo buying whatever he wants, and he seems to be into consumer products now.

SPEAKER_03 39:25

He probably just used 8 sleep and was like, wow, great product.

SPEAKER_01 39:28

Yeah, I mean, he's sitting on this massive pile of of gold, and you know, no pun intended. Like he's actually literally sitting on just endless money. And now he's basically created this tether ventures or tether industries or whatever it is. And like, what is tether? Like, like, do we have a good understanding of what this company is? Is this smart? Are they are they diversifying and now it's gonna become this massive multifaceted business? Or are we watching them kind of veer off and like lose focus? And it's like, oh, he's just gonna do this shit now. Oh, and now he's gonna do this. A mattress company. I love mattresses. Like uh, I don't know. I'm very and and these might be great investments, but I've never really seen uh well, I don't know. Is this like a normal trajectory, or or is this I think so?

SPEAKER_03 40:14

Uh you get to a point where you're in your company where you you're making shitloads of money, you don't know what to do with it. Um, tether is a company that sort of runs itself now. Uh they're gonna print money either way. So yeah, I guess if you're powerly, you just start chucking shit at things you like. It's funny because all the crypto uh products, what have uh tether uh as in in the round, I've been absolutely hammered on. So yeah, uh plasma and uh the dreaded Ubit, I've been I've been absolutely destroyed on. So interesting.

SPEAKER_01 40:46

Yeah, just curious to see if this plays out that these are like aligned, like these are all strategically aligned into some category, or if it's like, no, they're just gonna pick and choose um work.

SPEAKER_02 40:56

But Tether could end up being one of the most important financial institutions in a way that SoftBank has been over the last 20 years going forward. They have except that they don't have shareholders or anyone to answer to. They just have endless money and an ability to do whatever the fuck they want to and influence the world in any way they see fit. Um, and I think especially once this Clarity Act happens and they can invest maybe more freely and do things more freely with their capital, um, we could really see that start to see like uh long-term impacts of them um not just in crypto, but everywhere. Um, as they become one of the biggest banking players in the world. They already are.

SPEAKER_03 41:42

Yeah, they already are.

SPEAKER_02 41:43

And not only people with that money.

SPEAKER_03 41:45

Yeah, I feel like like traditional finance, like they're not really caught up with Tether. And then they just see these massive rounds and they're like, oh shit, yeah, these guys exist.

SPEAKER_01 41:55

Like speaking of uh of Clarity Act, um, I know we we don't claim ourselves to be the political experts here, but where where do things stand on that? Because we had this March 1 deadline that came and passed, right? Like there was a big, you know, lot made out of like March 1 is the line in the sand. Uh and then it clearly did, you know, there was not an agreement. Uh it sounded like the banks were kind of holding them hostage on some of the stablecoin yield or whatever. Um, and now and I don't know if you guys have seen it, seems like a lot of comments coming out from the Trump family or the Trump admin that are kind of like almost seeming like they're trying to bully this through kind of comes across a little panicky to me. What do you guys think?

SPEAKER_03 42:42

Yeah, it does seem a little panicky. Um, obviously, deadline close. I know you're a big clarity guy. Big clarity guy.

SPEAKER_02 42:49

Um Swizzle Swizzle has said that he's waiting for the Clarity Act to have passed so so that he can allocate. This is a big no, but I allocated already.

SPEAKER_03 42:58

So I mean you pre-fied, you pre-fied on the clarity act.

SPEAKER_01 43:01

Yeah, I was betting on the March 1 pass.

SPEAKER_02 43:05

Swizzle said I'm gonna wait till the Clarity Act passes to allocate. Allocates anyways. Allocate, man, it didn't work. Yeah, I mean, I think Trump and his son specifically are really trying to bully this board. But I mean look at the Trump family, you see how much money they've made off of this. And you say, okay, if if you're a rational person, you just say, okay, what do they stand to gain off of this? It has to be a shit ton of money. Like they founded a stable coin company just in time to get the clarity out of pass. Like they certainly certainly to prosper off of it. So it's like I don't know, it feels it all feels kind of icky. Um but you know, hopefully for us it have passes, so our bags can keep going up. Um and it's done in some like way that is good, but I just don't know. Um last thing I want to talk about that I thought was funny, guys, was cracking. Getting Federal Reserve access as the first crypto firm ever. And they list the budget Kraken.

SPEAKER_03 44:06

Yeah, they it's an interesting one because they are they're becoming a bit like the glorified Mexi. They just list anything. If it's got a name and you're paying, you're going on Kraken. So yeah. Bit of an interesting angle, but like nothing surprises me at the moment.

SPEAKER_01 44:22

Um what does that actually mean that they got access to the Federal Reserve, by the way?

SPEAKER_00 44:26

That sounds horrifying. Sounds yeah, but I I don't know what it means. Um I don't either. Not sure I want to. Not sure I want to. Fed master account through Kansas City Fed.

SPEAKER_02 44:39

It has gained access to its central bank's core payment system.

SPEAKER_03 44:43

Interesting.

SPEAKER_02 44:44

Which means it's a momentous integration of crypto infrastructure into the US financial plumbing. I don't know what any of these words mean. They're very big. All I know is that the Chilhouse account tweeted that Kraken, if you're if if if your coin is listed on Kraken, someone is doing crime on it and it's probably going to zero. And I will always remember that tweet.

SPEAKER_01 45:12

But like, how did it end up being Kraken, man? Like, it just doesn't seem like uh the most All those listing payments were used to lobby. Yeah, I guess so. I didn't realize Kraken was like that big. Like I knew they're big, that's maybe not the right weird way to say it, but like you would think it would be someone who's really kind of like established like institutional relations, you know, the Coinbase, the um I don't know. I guess I really can't think of anyone other than Coinbase that I would expect that to be. But um yeah, I we'll revisit this one next week because we don't know enough information on it, but it's very bizarre. Very bizarre.

SPEAKER_02 45:56

Looks like we lost that. Um I think we can probably wrap up here, anyways. Um as uh prices keep going down. What's Bitcoin at now? Twizzle. What are we doing? 68.5 equity is getting hammered. SPY down 1%.

SPEAKER_01 46:16

Let's see. A liquid weekend. It's gonna be aggressive one way or the other.

SPEAKER_02 46:21

I wish there was just something to do on chain to pass the time, but there just isn't. And it's just like, you know, time to touch grass, get hobbies, and build, I guess, right?

SPEAKER_01 46:31

Maybe hang out with your kids, would you uh that's what I'm doing.

SPEAKER_02 46:35

Getting beat up. I didn't sleep last night. These fucking kids wake, they keep you up all night. Um, anyways, uh, we'll be back Tuesday. We have a special guest on Tuesday.

SPEAKER_01 46:45

We do. Um, yeah, can we announce that? Uh let's announce it. So we're gonna have Avi, Avi Patel from CLED coming on. Um, and yeah, we're gonna talk CLED. I think it's been a little silent. Crypto Twitter kind of moved on, but uh it, you know, we're we're gonna dive deep a little bit and see what he's been up to. And um, he's obviously been in a lot of polarizing situations, running back to the launch coin believe days, but um he's running an AI company and we want to see what's going on with that.

SPEAKER_02 47:19

So yeah, I think he's one of the most polarizing figures we had come out of the AI ICM meta. Um people love Cled. Like lots of prominent people on Crypto Twitter loved Cled, right? Um, and so I think it'll be fun to hear from the man himself. I don't think he's done many shows either. Uh, so it'll be it'll be cool to chat with him and and and learn about what he's building in crypto, outside of crypto, and how the two things are being buried together. Um, it'll be a fun conversation. Also, going over his stories with Pastor Knack will definitely be a must. So tune in Tuesday. Um, we'll be having Avi Patel from Cleton. Uh 12 o'clock Tuesday. Um, yeah. See you then. Uh go download FOMO. Promo code RISCON, 10% off all of your trading fees. Uh best multi chain trading experience in the game. Download it today. Join us there, join everyone there. Trenches are dead, but it's never dead on FOMO. Um, and we'll see you guys Tuesday.