Risk On Podcast
risk on podcast
Risk On Podcast
How to Trade any Market Conditions | EP 49
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
Covering:
- Building Discipline After Liquidations
- Keeping Charts Simple
- Picking Moments Not Chop
- Adapting Styles and Avoiding Round Trip
Welcome. Good afternoon. Episode forty-nine of Risk On brought to you by FOMO. Go download today. 10% off all trading feet. Join us all there. Especially this guy that we got here, Pingo. Who uh one of the co-founders of FOMO has uh eloquently described as being the next LeBron of FOMO. Even though the current guy on the leaderboard of FOMO is this guy called Clavtard. Henry, can you bring up Clavtard for me? Yeah, this is Pingu. Pingu's got competition.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, this guy's this guy's this guy's the trader in the market right now.
SPEAKER_01Come on, Pingu. You had one job, man. We needed you to be top of the FOMO leader. Yeah, this guy took the crown today. This is this is our next LeBron, our GOAT.
SPEAKER_02This is my next LeBron. This is the on-chain. This is the next character we all needed, I think. Um I'm actually not familiar with uh Clabtard's trading. I don't want to I don't want to go too crazy on him. I mean, he might be a genius, and I might be fucking fudding him right now.
SPEAKER_03Pingo is Clabtard a genius.
SPEAKER_00I actually don't even know that is to be honest.
SPEAKER_03We just saw the picture and we thought it was ridiculous.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we were just pre-show, we were we saw uh Say's tweet about how you know uh FOMO is gonna create I think it was talking off the Thread Guy show a couple weeks a week ago or whatever, where he's talking about how there's gonna be these new financial trading celebrities. So I I just pulled up the charts on FOMO, and that just happened to be uh the name that popped up. So um yeah, good stuff. Good stuff. No Clavtar to follow.
SPEAKER_03Um yeah, fun stuff, guys. Uh we'll get into your stuff, Pingo, in a little bit and chat with you more about your experience and what you're up to. Um, but uh we'll start off with equities falling off a fucking cliff, Bitcoin losing 70. Uh no better. Well, that's all that's usually I do that and I get to pat myself on the back. You're you're taking a page out of my book.
SPEAKER_02Yep, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm uh mission become more unsufferable in the bear market. Uh, you know, I'm getting there day by day. Um people not people not liking me at the moment, uh especially the trench guys over clear clear things. Um but you know, what can you do? What can you do? Uh we move on. I did sell the top.
SPEAKER_03So you did sell the top on stream, and I was sitting there as you were saying it, and I was looking at it, I was like, you know what? My Bitcoin that I bought at like 65k is at 74 now. Like, that's a pretty good game. And you were like, bear my and I think your quote was round tripping in a bear market's the worst. And I was like, I really don't want to do that. And here I am.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that shit does suck. That shit does suck. Um glad, you know, sitting in cash not to be that guy. Not to be that guy right now. I'm feeling a lot like wood, night yeah, now you mentioned it.
SPEAKER_03I'm feeling a lot like Well, you know what, I I I am gonna one off you here a little bit, Sadh. Um you know how how I'm in this negotiation over this fucking house. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. So I sold a bunch of equities. I sold I sold a bunch of spy in QQQ um much higher than where it is now to pay for this fucking house. And it ended up a great fucking trade.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Is the house has the house gone through? No, I still don't know yet.
SPEAKER_03But if it doesn't go through, I'll just buy my equity for six-seven percent cheaper, even if not more. Yeah, you go. Oh, so you so you lucked into uh being well positioned. Yeah, I lucked into being well positioned, not for the first time either, because I did this over the summer. I sold all almost all my Bitcoin at 120k because I had to fund a purchase for something.
SPEAKER_01Well, it sounds like this woman you've been negotiating with uh you might have to throw her a kickback after all this time.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, she's fucking killing it.
SPEAKER_03Pingu, are you sideline now? Did you sell the top or are you getting your dick kicked in?
SPEAKER_00Actually, surprisingly, I sold at 115 um and kind of the same way like uh would uh in regards to his house. I didn't really buy a house though, I just bought some cars, and then I, you know, I was like, I'd rather just have something to say, okay, yeah, you know, this bull run I got this out of it, versus just round tripping everything and now being in like despair and talking shit on Twitter with everyone just because I'm upset about my life. So I mean pretty much what I did.
SPEAKER_02Um Twitter is uh CT's in a in a weird spot right now. It's kind of it feels very different to previous bear markets.
SPEAKER_01Like it's it's kind of a dark place, huh?
SPEAKER_02It is, yeah, it is. And it's not to say that previous bear markets hasn't hasn't been a dark place, it sure has, but yeah, now we still have like the trenches like still trading, and like before it was just no one, like everyone just just left. Um but yeah, we we have the trenches um still trenching. Uh we have yeah, I think that's the only subgroup of of CT that we left that we have. We have the small section of perp guys who trade no matter the conditions and they win. Um like Pingu. Uh and then yeah, that's the that's the only people we got left right now. And then people like Wood.
SPEAKER_01Why is Wood still on? We don't know. Yeah, we don't know, we don't know.
SPEAKER_02We don't know. He's still tweeting though.
SPEAKER_01The agenda is unclear. Uh the motivations are unclear. He's just there.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah, yeah. Nothing worse than a not a nice cat 69 tweet in the bear market.
SPEAKER_03Nothing worse. I'm I'm I'm I'm figuring it, I'm I'm figuring life out still, guys. And I like all of you guys, so you know, why would I leave? Um but I I did have a tweet the other day that said uh the uh it was the uh pipeline from uh crypto Twitter into Ryan Selkis is as strong as it's ever been. And I feel like that is crypto Twitter in a nutshell right now. You got a bunch of like angry, angry people that are just on this path like hating the whole fucking world. Um and the bear market is really extrapolated and making it ten times worse. Um but it's it's a really fucking uh it's a really bad place, and price action does not like make it any better. Um Pingu, are you trading perfs right now? I I follow your channel pretty nicely. Um are you positioned into this move? I I know you were kind of preaching like we need to break 74 cleanly. Um walk us through the last like week of your trading.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so I actually haven't been trading too many trades just because we don't have any confirmation. So the way I trade really is once let's say, for example, a you know a range is broken, I usually wait for a retest, and then on the way back up, that's where we trade. So you can see that we hit like we originally broke the range of 73.7, so we did take that position. Um and our exit was gonna be at 75.1, so it broke or broke 75.1 for a little bit, but again, like that was our take profit zone, and then now I just haven't traded since because we haven't really gone back to that range at all. So I'm actually leaning towards more of a bearish structure now, um, just because in terms of the uh exponential moving averages, we're now trading below them and we're actually rejecting them quite hard. So uh, but I usually have rules, right? So my rules, like I said, is just and you know, I think a lot of people should have rules in general in trading, mostly for perps. But something I've learned over the years is pretty much Friday in like the next two hours. Um I no more positions on perps. Saturday, no trading at all. Sunday night, if you're trading, you're basically just looking for quick moves and then wait till uh 10:30 a.m. once an hour after the NY open, and then look for your trades. That's pretty much how I've dodged a lot of liquidations and noise, and you know, with whatever's going on around the world. Uh things tend to happen most on the weekend when the markets are closed, and then it kind of just lets me do my own thing. I don't even look at the charts until like Sunday night, and whatever happens after that, we just figure out from there.
SPEAKER_02So that's actually a that's a pretty good point.
SPEAKER_01Can you talk to us about how you developed some of these rules? So, like, I think most the three of us, I I don't know if these guys were on earlier, but we just recently started following your channel. Love how you like I think you you lay things out for people very clearly. You've clearly got your structures, you follow the EMAs, like you have your basically thesis you develop, and then you're very disciplined, which I think is like most good perps traders. We see like discipline is one of the hardest things. Even if you identify something, like you know, choosing not to trade at certain times is probably one of the hardest parts, and and you seem to be very like solid on that, uh, when to trade, when to not trade, and be patient. But most people have a story in crypto who are successful trading, like they learn the hard way in some capacity, or there's some like experience that like no one has the exact same rules that they trade off of. I'm just curious, like, how did you develop this? Like, you know, what's your level of accuracy on this? What are, you know, are there times where your your system has caused issues for you? Like, can you just give us the genesis a little bit about like why your rules are what they are and like what creates what makes them good for you?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, of course. Um, so over time, like I said, when you're first starting out as a trader, mostly for perps, there's a lot of noise in the market in regards to you know how people trade. Everyone in this room, like all four of us, are different traders, and that's what I think makes trading so fun is you know, for example, I might see a bullish structure and you might see a bearish structure. It doesn't mean either of us are wrong. It just simply means that my setup might play out first versus your setup. But for me, what I learned is, you know, um, in regards to my strategy, was simply that the focus was what's causing me to have the most liquidations and why do I keep making the same mistakes? Like, why is my trading plan over the years, like let's say for example, I had a crazy few weeks and then I would lose it all the next week, and I'd try to sit down and be like, okay, what kind of mistake did I did? And that was the main reason why was number one was of course overtrading, and number two was discipline. Um, over time, the more you know, the more times you have liquidations, you realize as a person that you know enough is enough, like clearly something is wrong where I need to fix it, and trying to stick to those rules again comes with time. You're not gonna, you know, one year be the greatest perps trader, and then the next year you're gonna lose it all, and then people don't understand that psychological effect that has on you when you're in the highs of you know winning. And of course, everyone's a genius in a bull market, but when it comes down to a bear market, things are a little bit different, right? You have to preserve your capital, and you also, if you do make a mistake, you have to realize very early on, okay, maybe I'm not in the right trade. Um, and I think that's pretty much from my strategy setup where I learned again no Friday trading and just trading in regards to the exponential moving averages. I kept it very simple. People on YouTube, you know, trade the 50 exponential, the 200, and it doesn't mean they're wrong necessarily. I just I personally don't like trading setups where you know the average person that's going to be learning perps is doing the same thing. Like a lot of times from beginner courses or anything like that, you'll notice people say, Okay, make sure you guys have these exponential moving averages like the 50 and the 200 because they're very important. And you'll probably see a lot of times on Twitter the minute you know we break the 50, everyone goes berserk and they're like, Oh my god, Satoshi's selling, this is what's happening. We just broke the 50, right? And that's why I don't like doing that. Personally, I like the nine and the 20. And again, at the end, at the end of the day, they're still indicators. It doesn't mean that you know you can use this indicator and become some kind of guru. And to your next to your question was, has the setup failed before? Yes, it has, right? For example, when the Iran-US thing happened, we started to see the market a lot more volatile, even though we were seeing breakouts that weren't as large as they once were. Because with the uncertainty in the market, we saw profit taking happening a lot quicker, even on the perp side, the choppiness. Like I think it was like three weeks before I even entered a trade because we were just ranging so bad, and that is the hardest part where I realize a lot of people struggle is not being in a trade is still a trade. You don't have to force a trade just because you know you're bored, and that's where a lot of people make those mistakes. So, um, in regards to your last question, was uh, you know, hit rate. I don't really know my hit rate, I would assume it's like 85% or higher because we don't really lose a lot of trades. And the reason why we don't lose a lot of trades, it doesn't mean that I'm some kind of guru or anything, it just simply means that when it comes down to my trading style, let's say Bitcoin's a 74,000. Um, we can just use the example of 73.7, like my my last trade 73.7 on Bitcoin. And I said, look, realistically, if Bitcoin breaks 73.7, then our exit's gonna be 70 uh 75.1. But the difference was when we enter a trade, we always put a trailing stop because when we're trading a breakout, you'll initially notice that there is volume that comes into the market, right? So once that volume comes in, we just put a trailing stop. And if for those of you that don't know what a trailing stop is, it just simply means that you're putting your stop loss in profit. If the market reverses, which it has, you're still walking away with something. And I think that once you master that rule mindset, then you're not really worried about perps in general. And what I mean by that is sometimes I'm in a trade, let's say I'm up like 1500 bucks and I'm I'm and I'm going to bed. My thought process is okay, I can either put a trailing stop here at 1500 profit and I go to bed happily knowing I made 1500, or I close the trade here and I take whatever's on the table. But this way it's a win-win situation. I think a lot of times what people do is they'll be in a trade, and it can be for meme coins as well, it can be for anything. Um, they'll be in a trade and they'll say, you know what, I'm up X amount of money, but tomorrow I can make this much more. Maybe I should hold, and they wake up and they get liquidated. And I think that's something that a lot of people need to focus on too, is you know, and and this goes for everyone. I've the amount of DMs I've gotten since I've you know uh started rising on FOMO and and just stories of people saying they blew it all, the same thing comes from all of their stories is they didn't take enough profits. And I think you need to realize at the end of the day that not only is are the market conditions really bad, but a lot of people are you know in a panic state where we see that these trenches in general. I see you know coins going from 300 to 900k and then to zero within the next like three hours, maybe. And I'm not talking about rug poles, I'm not talking about that general consensus, whatever. That that's a whole different world, but I'm talking about coins that have a great narrative, but they can't even break a million, right? And that's where you need to realize is okay, am I, yeah, sure, I might look like an idiot taking 2x, 3x, and you know, people make fun of me for that lately, but I at the end of the day, like those 2x, 3x positions add up. And if the coin goes to zero, anyways, I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to make money, right? And at the end of the day, if I don't want to be a bag holder, then I'm taking those. So it goes for both ways. That's where my technical analysis comes in, at least from the perp side into meme coins to just the foundation of it.
SPEAKER_03So yeah, Pengu, um, I think you just described more rules than all three of us have combined.
SPEAKER_02Bro, the only one, the only ones I have, I have a I have a similar one when I I was really hard like trading perps was I never traded a Monday. I never traded a Monday, and I would wait for a Monday range and then trade the Monday range. Um but no, I think I'm also an EMA guy, a big EMA. A lot of people fucking laughed at me for the EMAs, but they only work because loads of people look at them. Um and I like that shit too. Um, but no, uh, you're definitely better than me at fucking trading perps nowadays. So they can't fucking.
SPEAKER_00Perps, like I said, is over time. It's not it's not a skill. Like, I'll be completely transparent with you guys. I didn't profit in perps until year three. Um, and even then I didn't teach anyone until like year seven. I've been trading since 2016, but you can't become a teacher, and I'm not talking about those course gurus, right? Like, oh, they do one year of like forex and they're like, all right, guys, join my paid channel here. You know, I'm not like I'm not talking about those guys, I'm talking about people that are like genuinely profitable. Like, it's very hard to teach what you see and also teach it in a way where someone can learn. I think that's like the the bigger issue in regards to that. Like, for example, I look if you look at my trading style, it's naked. I don't have like crazy things on my chart, it's just a very naked chart, and I just give the levels and those levels end up playing out. And people are like, Oh, how did you know that level is gonna play out? And that's where I think I struggle with is like I can see it, but someone else might not see the same thing. So, me trying to teach that is why, like I said, it took so many years. Like, I'm like, okay, well, if someone's trying to learn perps and they know nothing, how can I word it or teach them in a way where they can at least start picking it up, you know, sooner or later. So that was my struggle over the years.
SPEAKER_01I think I think that's what I've liked about following your channel because I've you know I've followed a number of these people, and me personally, I'm actually not a perps trader. Like, I'm always more of like a size spot trader. Like, I take generally longer time frames, sometimes for better, sometimes for worse. But like, I think the way you do it, you just talked about having less on there and the simplicity. Like, I feel like a lot of people, not to say that these complexities can't factor in, can't help you. If you're advanced and you know how you're using them, sure, it's better information. But I feel like a lot of early perps traders like get super into like all these different indicators and drawing all these different, you know, fucking lines and circles all over the place. They got their clouds, all that stuff. And it's like, man, you probably not only do you not need that, like if you're if you're like entering into this, you should probably keep it very simple. And I feel like you've been kind of laying that out in a way for people where it's like, okay, like just keep an eye on this, keep an eye on this. I'm not gonna like throw all this stuff at your brain to process. And the reality is like you know, you don't have to process, you're not going to be able to process every factor that goes into what creates these moves up or down. It's like you just you almost want to focus on specific variables that you are like have a concentrated awareness on, right? Um but I don't know, I feel like it's just a it's it's kind of like um, you know, you're at the craps table or whatever, and people all of a sudden want to do all the bets, all these different places, and it's like the more complexity you add, the more you have to manage and the harder it gets in a way. Um, for sure.
SPEAKER_00Um, and I think that's why, right? Like I've seen some crazy UFO drawings, and people are like the Ichumuku Cloud or like this and that. And I think like that same thing, right? It's like it doesn't mean that their um strategy is wrong or anything, but as a beginner, if you're starting out and you have five different indicators and two indicators are telling you to be bullish and three are telling you to be bearish, you're gonna have a hard time making a move. And the hard the thing about perps, for example, and I guess for meme coins as well, is if you'll notice, like I guess we can talk about meme coins real quick, and then I'll lead into the perp side of things. But if you notice the way I enter meme coins, it's not like there's no like you know, someone's like, Oh, Pink of Charts is like a delusional trader. Like, I've never seen anyone on foam will trade like this guy. And for me, it's like I don't really have a plan when I enter something, right? Like, I pretty much just trade momentum. If I see something early, I'll enter it. And I think for me, it's the reason why I've had such a great past month is because I don't hesitate when I execute. Like, for example, I'll talk about punch, right? A lot of people saw that punch.
SPEAKER_03I want to get into something first, Pengu, before you get into your point. Sorry, is uh I remember like two, three months ago, I made fun of you for selling something early. Uh oh my god. That's crazy. What was this? I ripped what what comments is it? It might have been. Oh, it was penguin. Oh yeah, yeah. We'll talk about penguin quickly because I caught the move on penguin and you didn't. Um Pingu Pingu sold all of his penguin at like 15 mil or something like that. What was it? It could have been lower. 12 million, yeah, yeah. 12 million. You you owned like close to 1%, I think. Close to 1%. You sold it all. And then you woke up in the morning, um, it was above that, and then you said you sold it all. I entered it around 15, 16 million above where you sold. And I just kept saying to you, if you can't hold, you won't be rich. Uh and then it proceeded to go to what, 120 million? 170 million? 140. 140. He knows the number. He knows the number. Yeah, I know the number. I didn't know the number. I knew the number two.
SPEAKER_01It's it's back below his entry now. Yeah, there you go. Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER_03I knew the number two, I just wanted Penguin to say it. Um and uh I remember saying that to you, and then I I I didn't sell the top, but I think I sold most around 90, 900 million or whatever it was. Um, and then after Penguin, I proceeded to round-trip a bunch of things, and then you just fucking sold for your little dicky 23xs and were consistently profitable. And I'm here like with my you know, with my zero dollar profit or negative profit, because I round-tripped everything. And um, you know, so it goes to show that like you are gonna miss some if you sell too early, but you're gonna consistently make money, and in these types of market conditions that we're in today, that's like the most important thing is securing your capital, protecting it, taking profit when it's there, and not being fucking greedy. Greedy people make money and make money when it's in easy mode. Um, that same greed also causes them to round trip at all, usually. But like greed, greed is not a trait, a good, a good bear market trader trait. You need to be the least greedy motherfucker possible, and I think you you're doing a good job of that right now.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, like um, yeah, just in regards to my penguin trauma here, uh yeah, it wasn't uh actually the penguin, like I was very early on it, but I didn't necessarily think it was that great of a meme. I didn't like I don't think anyone expected the White House and stuff to start tweeting. And like I said, those things, like that's why I enjoy meme coins is you know, one day you're in a coin and the next day the White House is tweeting about it, and you're like, wow, what happened, right? And I think you can't no one in here can say, Oh yeah, you know, I saw that coming. But um same thing. I was happy with my penguin profits, you know, I did whatever I needed to. Um, and at the time, same thing, right? The conditions weren't necessarily there for the trenches, like, we didn't have any runners at all. A lot of coin people were like, Know they're vamping, there's pvp, whatever, but we didn't have that, you know, meme organic runner. And Penguin was that organic runner. What happened after was, you know, I again wasn't on the meme coin side that much at that point either. I was still trading on my own side walls and doing my own thing, but um, you know, I think the whatever penguin did was, you know, good for the overall meme coin mark in general because we saw a lot of coins start coming up after that. But in regards to profit taking, there are mistakes, of course, I've done, and I'll give you guys two quick stories here. Troll. I was in troll at I think I want to say like 15 mil. I sold at 75, and I bought a GTR, and you know, I was like, okay, I hit my goal, I'm buying my car. I don't really care what happens after that. And it went to 247 million or something, and people were my tweeting DMing me and tweeting, they're like, You're an idiot, you sold, you could have made this much, you could have made that much. And again, like now we look at troll, and you know, people are still tweeting and they're saying trolls are going to a billion, and it's like they're down horrendous. And at the end of the day, like I got something out of it where I was happy, right? Um, and the uh if you like from previous uh runs, I guess like my GME trade, like I don't know, that's where pretty much I guess Pingu charts kind of started growing was my GME trade. I was in GME very early and I was delusional as hell. Like I was one of those people that were like, you know, no matter what happens, I'm not selling. And uh it was at like I want to say like six million, and then the kitty guy came back and it ran to like oh I think like 80 or something, and it was a 10x with size, and it was like 300. I think at peak it was like 430 grand or something I had, and I just sold all of it, like like two clipped it, didn't even look back, and then literally within an hour later, Andrew Tate came on and it went to a million dollars or something. And the same thing, right? People were like, You're an idiot, whatever. And I think at the end of the day, as long as you're happy with what you make, it doesn't matter what people say, right? People are always gonna have an opinion. Same thing with punch, and I'll give that example real quick was punch trade for me was execution in regards to how many people were talking shit about it. And I looked at the chart and I'm like, it's not breaking anywhere lower than if it wanted to die, it would have died by now. And the fact that it didn't, I did get a bit lucky, of course, with him finding a girlfriend or whatever, but um you know, whatever, great. I made you know 82 grand and whatnot, and then people were like, Oh, you're an idiot, you sold, we're going 100 mil, and then now I'm getting the blame because they're saying, Oh, I sold and I created the top. And like I said, there's you're never gonna make anyone happy. And I always tell this to people, I'm like, dude, if your coin was so good, it would have broken with or without me, anyways. Like me doing something or taking profits should not be the end of your coin. And if it is, it's not a great coin. Um, and I guess Penguin was a great example of that, right? Like I sold and I had 1%. I still, you know, had a lot, and you know, the coin went higher, so it was a good coin.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, I I was gonna say, I think the um the reality is the market punishes everybody in in different ways at some point. And so, like, I think a trader like you who has more discipline and uh basically that mechanism is like capital defense, where it's like you you're protective about making sure you lock in profits and you limit your downside. And that can sometimes punish you, probably more so psychologically, in like true bull market conditions, where it's like, you know, things just do irrational, they have irrational runs, and it's like, well, man, I sold something after I hit a 3x and then it ends up going 30x or whatever. And it's like that'll be painful, but you haven't lost your capital. You just like have this theoretical thing you missed out on. Uh, I think people like me and Wood, for example, like I would say we're kind of like bull market genius traders where we have crazy risk tolerance, crazy risk appetite. And we're the late buyer or the early buyer who delusionally holds, and the payout on that can be so and you know, so asymmetric, that's how it's justified. But the flip side is we have much more capital risk because of the round trip, because potentially entering higher and being in the red as, you know. Um, so like, you know, someone like me in this case, it's like I have to recognize in these conditions, they're not my optimal conditions, I have to more so just like when it comes to the lower caps, like not trade at all right now because the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Um, but I, you know, I I can stomach and bull market some of those nasty round trips, some of the lost capital, because the upside will play to my advantage. There's just time and a place where, like, I think to your point you made earlier, there's no specific expert way to do it. It's all strategy-based, and I think you have to be consistent and understand the pros and cons of your style. And that's where a lot of us go wrong is like you hit these conditions where it's not optimal for your trading style and you try to press on, anyways. In those cases, it's kind of like adapt or die, adapt to a different trading style and learn how to execute that, or recognize that you trade less and you figure out when the times you can really like pounce on the market are. And you know, for someone who's a little bit more uh or less less able to protect their capital in the way you do, I think they just have to be have to be much more careful about when they enter trades. Um, so you know, I it's interesting like hearing different people's perspectives because I think uh a year and a half ago, the conditions we were in, I would have told you, hey man, I I don't love that trading style of yours. But right now I'm listening to you and I'm like, yeah, man, I wish I operated that way.
SPEAKER_03So yeah, and in bull running.
SPEAKER_02Bro, white two gets down on himself, yeah. Like he's been down on himself for a bit, like he actually killed it, this market.
SPEAKER_01Like he there's similar trading styles except Pingu's just confident in himself, man. Yeah, optimistic.
SPEAKER_03Y22 is also a good bear market trader. I am I am maybe I might be, I mean, Swizzle might be worse than me, but I'm pretty bad at it.
SPEAKER_01I gotta be top 1% more.
SPEAKER_03Like, I I just like I I I can't believe I talked myself into gas, Ralph.
SPEAKER_02I was gonna mention the man. Yeah, Jesus, bro.
SPEAKER_03Uh you talked your oh sat stat, you started the bags meta, if you don't remember that. This is all your phone.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I had that I had that one sweet at the start of bags saying it was gonna be the future. Uh it was the future for a week.
SPEAKER_03For one week. Yeah, for one week. Too much money.
SPEAKER_02I did uh I did make a lot on gas. I I did get I did get hammered on Ralph though.
SPEAKER_03Um did you get rugged on Ralph, like me? Like you woke up in the morning like five.
SPEAKER_02But no, I I got rugged, but like I was I I caught it in the first like 10-20 minutes of it. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01I remember sets, you and I were DMing each other because we saw that and it happened so fast. Like literally, I I saw it happen in the first 60 seconds, and I sold as soon as I could, and I still barely got back out like breakeven or whatever after being up like 200%. But we were both like, oh man, wood's gone, wood's dark, he's asleep. He's not gonna like this when he wakes up.
SPEAKER_03I woke up, I I woke up like seven hours after it happened. Yeah, it wasn't. I didn't even catch it within it was just like game over. Beyond. It was like it was beyond over. I I I think I I had like 150 grand in it when I went to bed, and I woke up to like 20,000.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that was a cool one. But those but those are just not good trading conditions, man. Like gas, I my average entry on gas was like two million and with size, hit it all, and then I somehow ended up trip was the most disgusting thing.
SPEAKER_02That was on FOMO as well, no?
SPEAKER_01I lost money on it because the 20 minutes the rug happened, or you know, whenever it happened, it's like okay, I was like at dinner or something, and by the time I came back, I had full round tripped it.
SPEAKER_03I gave back all my gas money on Ralph, I think.
SPEAKER_02Bro, Ralph was a tough one, man.
SPEAKER_03And then and and then I gave back all my penguin money on various like shit coining things, and then I retired from shitcoining.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't I don't blame you.
SPEAKER_03And now I'm still here tweeting, but I am I am I am a retired trench trader. I just get to watch Pengu trade shit coins all day. But and something else I do want to talk about is you know, given like mark conditions, equity is kind of rolling over today. Um and I think like a lot of people are so fixated on like catching bottoms and tops. Um and my guy Chumbawamba, I don't know if you guys follow Chumbawamba, he's one of my favorite follows. Um, it's been around for a long time. He has a speech today about how you can be bearish and still be positioned. And I think that really resonated with me because I've I have big exposure to Bitcoin and to equities, and I'm very bearish on the market right now. I think we go lower. Um that doesn't mean I'm I'm selling everything today. Like I'm not here trying to time markets. And I think a lot of people are so fixated. I don't know, did you call top, did you call bottom, did you execute, did you sell everything, and hold on and re-enter lower. Like it's okay to like have longer term horizons for the majority of your positions, especially when it comes to majors, absolutely Bitcoin and equities, and like just hold through volatility. Go look at the all-time spy chart or whatever you want to, like QGQ, Bitcoin. We're gonna go up eventually. Like you just need to manage through the volatility.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I I think a lot of people a lot of people who've been here cycle on cycle understand this, but I think uh yeah, like I said at the start, like the the people who are left on CT are the the new guys. And they are yeah, fixated on selling the bottom and buying the like or selling the top and buying the bottom. Uh they don't understand it. You might be in a whole different position because like you're not holding shit coins, you're holding stocks. Um arguably shit coins in themselves. Uh but yeah, it is uh it is a crazy market right now. It's a crazy market. It's tough to uh like for me, I've uh as of as of last pod, I I went nearly fully cash, but I uh like everything.
SPEAKER_03You don't own anything.
SPEAKER_02No, I don't own anything. I don't own a single bit of Bitcoin. I don't I'm a dirty bear, bro. I'm a dirty bear. But like like I said, we were talking about trading styles at the start. I'm much more reserved than probably everyone here. Uh like throughout the bear market or throughout some of the bull market, I I made a lot on the early meme coins, the popcats and the shark cats and the shit like that. And I was sitting 70% cash for the majority of the bear market. And yeah, and I still I still do that. I will never drop below below that that amount. And what I mean by cash is like just big core assets, like the golds and the USD. That's all I pretty much sit in. And the Swiss franc, uh, as of recently.
SPEAKER_03Um you need to buy the Swiss franc too.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, uh, and that's the way that's the way I feel comfortable. I I I I I play with the the other 30% of my portfolio, and I I'm fully, fully accept like the money I trade with could go to zero, um, and I would be completely fine with it.
SPEAKER_01And I think I got I got PTSD sort of from FTX where I was gonna say we've talked about this in the past, like you have you have very specific trauma, which is it's probably constructive for you. Yeah, but like you have very specific trauma and experience.
SPEAKER_02Oh, did we lose him?
SPEAKER_03Oh, yeah, basically Sass has specific trauma. Oh, he's back. Is he back?
SPEAKER_02He's getting that. It's the hotel Wi-Fi taking him out.
SPEAKER_03You guys hear me? I'm here. We could hear you. I can't hear him.
SPEAKER_02I can't hear him.
SPEAKER_03I can hear him. Uh we were saying he he was about to say he was he was talking about your uh FTX trauma and how you were like hours away from losing all of your money.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, man. Now, because of that, you're so inclined to not yeah, uh I've also given it back four times over. Uh like I gave it up.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, that's a good thing to talk about that no one else really does really is clear about all that often.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I I I I've I've round tripped uh a six months. How many times can you talk this to? Yeah, four times. Uh four times. Yeah, zero to to to a lot of money. Um the that amount is up to everyone's imagination. Uh it's embarrassing to even uh mention the position or the positions I had, but yeah.
SPEAKER_03I need to hear it. I need to hear what what what did you believe in that you round tripped?
SPEAKER_02Oh man, uh you remember. I'll tell you mine after. You remember, oh my god, it's one of the metaverse coins that um it begins with an A. I can't even remember, man. It was it's like a race from my memory and trauma. But uh I I made an absolute fucking killing on it. Um I can't remember what it was called. A AVI or something, AVA? One of them shitters, man. It was one of the metaverse things, and I thought it was the fucking I thought it was amazing. And I I made a killing on spot. I was one of the honestly one of the first people to buy this. It went to uh it went very, very high, and then I took profit on my spot position and I added to perps um and I doubled down and I was up a significant amount on perps, and yeah, one day it had a crazy wick to the downside and my whole position got liquidated. Uh and that was that was the first loss. The second was oh, what was I doing, man? I can't even I can't even remember the exact things I was doing anymore, but I think it was like ING or some bullshit like that, XR, but it was AXS. That was the coin I fucking I round tripped everything on the first time. And then yeah, a lot of them was just like it just triple down on on perps, like because I would run these small accounts up, I'd run these 5k accounts to just a like ridiculous amount of money, and then within three days I would fucking zero out again. Um and it's just something you don't return from mentally. Um that's why I'm so protective over my cash uh now. Um it pays off during the bear market because I'm sat on it's still 70% of my portfolio, which like I've managed to hang on to pretty much all my gains. Um obviously I've given back some uh across the time. Like I'm not at a portfolio all-time high anymore, but yeah, man, I yeah, I definitely definitely suffer from some PTSD from this market. Uh I think like like a lot of people who've been trading for a long time, so yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_03My I I I thought that looks was gonna be the future.
SPEAKER_02Oh bro my god, man. Lux looks a bad bro, looks dydx. Oh man, I got yeah, I I caught a lot of them moves at the start. Yeah. I just but the the the painful thing is I was up a significant amount of money, and I somehow managed to to just dribble it away because I was like, I was so attached, I was so attached to portfolio milestones. This was my problem. I would be like, oh, I get to a million dollars, I'll be happy. I'll get to 900k and be like, I need to squeeze another hundred K, fucking zero out, and it'll be the same, yeah, it'd be the same at different milestones, two, three, four, five million dollars. Oh, just that little bit more, and then you fucking you fuck it, and yeah, it's just yeah, you fill with regret.
SPEAKER_03One thing I think it's interesting that I do want to talk about um is I feel like my confidence is horrible when it comes to trading right now, and I kept a lot of my money for the bull market, right? And my I'm like, I'm never gonna, I'm like in my head, like you're never gonna make money again, whatever, but like it's not a me, it's a market thing. The market's horrible. Like, I I I'm not a good bear market trader, I'm a good easy market trader. I have to recognize your guys, right? How do you guys how do you like mentally come back from round tripping, I guess? And like I'll put it to you first, Sats, and then we can all take our turns. I'm pretty sure all of us have given back significant amounts of money. Pingu, you're not you're not special here, are are you? For per se, I've I've done stupid things. Alright, I love it. I love it. So mentally, because I I think a lot of our listeners have probably been like, oh my god, my portfolio ultimate was this, now I'm here, I have no capital to trade with. What do I do?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think how do you come back from it? If you're if you're actually zeroed out, if you're actually zeroed out, bro, you go get a job. Like insane. You go get a fucking job, bro. Like when I zeroed out, I went and got a fucking job. Like, that's the only way out. Like, you don't the the last thing you want to do is sit on CT and be fucking annoying and and be depressive. Like, that's the last thing you want to do. I remember I saw a Gainesy clip about this. Like, if you've got a decently sized CT account, you don't go on CT and start being a fucking bitch on the timeline. Like, it's just it doesn't get you anywhere, and and people just see you and uh instantly write off your takes in the future because you're just moaning. Like, we've all been there, especially the people who've been around here for a long time. You fucking zero out an account and you just gotta go back to work and suck it up and come back with a bit more capital. Like, I literally went back to work for two and a half K a month um and came back into the market, uh, made money, lost it, done the same process two more times, had to go back, get the fucking in fact. I went back to the same job. That's a funny story. But I literally have to go back and be like, guys, like I know I said I'm quitting a few months ago, but I'm fucking back. Um that what happened previously. Uh but no, I think now like I've learned my lesson, and it's like I said, I sit 70% cash and I'm happy with zeroing out about 30% of my portfolio. Um so every trade I take, I I'm literally happy with watching that go to zero. I I wouldn't even it wouldn't even cross my mind, I wouldn't even be upset about it. I'll just continue on with my day.
SPEAKER_03How do you how do you like okay? So like you're used to sizing trades one way. Now now you have to size trades completely differently, right? Like you zero yourself out, you're making two and a half K a month, you were taking, let's say, fifty thousand dollar positions, now you're taking five hundred dollar positions. Are your rules the same? Like so something I've struggled with is like, you know, you you make in a bull market, you make X amount of dollars on something, and then in a bear market, those gains are heavily muted. Like you're making 10% of that, maybe, but you're still like mentally kind of holding out, like, oh, I made this on this, therefore I can comp this to that, but the comp just isn't there, and that's where I fucked myself over. How do you mentally pivot off of that and like adapt your trading style to your new reality? I guess because you're not the same trader you were anymore.
SPEAKER_02For me, for me, it was like it was using accounts. Like I had I had one account I ran, this was on perps during FTX era. I ran like$500 to like 231k. I remember it very, very specifically. Um, and it was literally just I didn't trade, I didn't trade for maybe three months. Um, and I was waiting for this like week period where I just thought it was uh it was during when Recproof was was a really fucking big trader. I don't know if anyone even remembers him. He's still a big trader now. Uh he went really risk on. And I remember I saw on his channel, he was like, I'm gonna throw the fucking, I'm gonna throw the kitchen sink at this market in the next two weeks. And I was like, fuck it, I'm gonna do the same. Yeah, I loaded$500 on and yeah, within a few weeks, honestly, within like a month, it was at like 230k. So I think it's just choosing your moments where to just go crazy, crazy risk on um and not trying to force trades in a shit market like right now. Like I would not like that, I'm not taking any perps positions right now because I just don't think it's worth it. I'm not here to trade chop. Um, I'm not here to trade chop in these these these bad conditions. But if we get a sign of a like a decent relief rally, I will turn my head to alts and start trying to like you know get aggressive on perps on on some of these alts um and nail some of the like 10% moves. Because that's all I that's all you need on um say you have a$500 position or you have$500 in your account, you hit a fucking on 10-20x lev. This is not me advising, go fucking leverage trade. Like I was I was a hyper gambler at the end of the day who who just had a little bit of experience, but yeah, I would chuck 20, 20, 30x lev on some of these alt moves, and but you know, back in the day, every like Bitcoin would go up one percent and all these shitty little ults would go up 10%. I remember I made a killing on sushi swap. Uh like who the fuck who the fuck trades sushi anymore? It's just a different market, so yeah.
SPEAKER_03Pingo, walk us through some of the dumbest things you've round tripped and mentally how you came back from it.
SPEAKER_00Uh well, I don't think you necessarily always come back from that mental challenge. Like I said, um, you know, being up six six figures on perps, and then like I said, the same that's where those rules were born, right? Like the whole um taking the profits when you when you see them versus you know, oh, I could go higher. And and and so that's mentioned something that's I think resonates with a lot of people is you know, even when you're at the seven-figure mark, eight-figure mark, whatever, or even six-figure mark, it's that I and I'll give you guys a story here. Like, I've I saw it live, like um, you know, like everyone you people see you winning in real life, and they're like, Oh my god, like teach me crypto, whatever. Uh one of my friends, like, he you know, wanted to join crypto, and he's like, Okay, my goal is to hit six figures, like 100k was his goal. So I'll just give you guys a precise story. Here's 100k to hit the goal. Um, and you know, I told him like realistically, like, how much do you have capital to start with? He was starting with 10 grand or whatever. And I told him, and I told him this very specific, and I said, Look, like, once you hit your goal, it's out, like you are out of the market. Once you're at that goal, it's time to exit. There's no what ifs and you know what what it could be, etc. So, long story short, he ends up hitting his goal, doesn't listen, and liquidates his whole portfolio zero, and you know, like it's the reality of things. And I think after the what happens after that from the mental challenge, is you don't necessarily come back from that. You always have rules in place then moving forward. Like Zap's mentioned, like he's 70% cash now. It's not a bad thing to do. And I do the same thing. And I and I'll I'll tell you guys transparently like I was buying Pokemon cards just for fun because I'm like, oh, I can either lose this in the market or I can have some Pokemon cards to play with. And I got lucky on the Pokemon cards too, because Pokemon went crazy, right? And same with like Rolexes and whatever. It's just I my idea was if I'm up, you know, let's say 50,000. Okay, I can sit here and flex that you know my little crypto wallets at 50,000, or I can take this and you know go buy something in real life with it, I'm gonna enjoy. And yeah, if the market crashes from there, am I still gonna have my enjoyment versus just whatever happens in the market, right? People say, Oh, yeah, I'm gonna sell the top at 115, 120, and then I'm gonna write it all the way down, I'm gonna short it. That's not how things work, though, right? A lot of times there are a lot of people who get liquidated, things happen. For example, a great example of this is October 10th. What happened on October 10th, I haven't seen in my whole life in in regards to perps. Like that was not normal. People say, Oh, yeah, no, that's what you should have, you know, leverage was all time high, everyone aster came out, and this and that. And and you guys need to understand, like, there was traders that were on 2x leverage, 1x leverage that completely got wiped out. I have friends that got wiped out for nine figures on that because literally order books went to zero. And I'm not saying any exchange was you know perfect, even exchanges that I was on, I was seeing some massive uh order book fluctuations, and I'm like, this is not normal. So I think um, you know, moving forward, a lot of people are now gonna see 1010 as an example for the next bull run when they're up, you know, whatever amount of money, and they're like, hmm, I should probably take some profits. It's a good example because guess what? The next day you wake up, you might not have those profits again. So I think that's the way I move. I don't really come back from you know round-tripping in regards to like my six-figure story, like, you know, yeah, I was up six figures on perps and then round-tripped it back down to literally zero, got liquidated, and I'm like, damn, I should have just taken profits. I can't, I kid you not, I gained like 10 pounds already, more than I already had um two years ago, and I was like, dude, like I it was a big mental challenge for me because I was like, I that six figures I kind of used for so many different things. So I'm like, next time I make that money, I'm exiting, and that's what I did, right? So now you see it, like when I'm trading, people are like, What are you doing? Why are you trading like this? And I'm like, Well, because I just I'm happy with what I have, and I think a lot of people need to understand this too. Um, just a quick last point here, is I came from nothing. I don't have I didn't have like uh, you know, like oh, you know, rich parents or you know, I I was successful in life or anything like that. Like, I was literally working as a dishwasher. I I came from nothing. So for me, even to this day, even till now, in this very moment, even punch, whatever you see my FOMO portfolio is the way I see life is okay, I spent eight hours washing dishes for like a hundred bucks after taxes. So if I also tell people, be grateful for what you have in regards to the market, because again, like there's people out there that don't have not only don't they have don't have anything, but that's the reality. They work 40 hours a week, nine to five, they come home, whatever, after taxes, they're maybe bringing in two grand a month, and you're sitting here complaining that you only made five grand, you only made ten grand. So I think for me, that's the biggest thing, and why I take profits the way I do is I know that hey, like if this was a normal life and a normal job, for me to make this amount of money, it would take years. And I think once people start realizing that, they will start taking profits faster because they'll be like, Um, yeah, this is a 10-year salary. Who wants a round trip for 10-year salaries? Right, there's a very select few people in in here that are listening that were like you know, delusional to say, if it's not a million, I'm not selling. And yes, it has worked out for them, like Dogwith Hat, Popcat, you know, Fuag, whatever. It has worked out for some of these folks, but the reality is, most people, it's not gonna be like that. It's gonna be close to their amount of life-changing money, and then they're gonna round trip it. Yeah, so bro, it's funny.
SPEAKER_03And love Penguin just keeps rattling off all my wins, which is funny you say I feel like we've all like everyone who's round-tripped a significant amount of money has been through the same mental process.
SPEAKER_02Like, I've been literally the exact way you say where you cat you you see the amount, you round-trip say two, three hundred K, and you're going, fuck, that's a that's a lot of years' work. Like, I've lost a lot of time there. That's how I said this is what got me really in a bad place back then. It was like, fuck, I I've lost five years of my life, what I'm gonna have to work for now. And yeah, but by and I used to calculate it like by the hour and get really granular with it. And I used to be like, fuck, I what have I done? And and it's yeah, I it's hard to it's hard to explain to this to people who haven't been through these crazy, crazy uh round trips. And you know, it's it's stupid. Like, don't get me wrong, I'm not glorifying round trips here. But um, I think some of the best the best perpetrators come come off the back of them.
SPEAKER_01I think there's something to be said with that, and I've I mean I've I've done the same as with you guys. I've I've round tripped egregious amounts, right? But uh I think the the people that I see that really struggle is like I think there's this there's this balance, uh especially in crypto because it's 24-7 uh where it's beneficial to be chronically online and to be always engaged, always locked in. That's how you catch things, that's how you get a sense of the narrative that's forming, that's how you get early, it's how you have some edge. And so like indisputably, being chronically online, being locked in, being always focused on this is a very beneficial thing in terms of like that wealth accumulation. But it's also this crippling thing where like, okay, something happens, things start to go wrong, and those who can't get out of it, who it's their whole world, who it's it's what they exist in, it's so easy for that uh compartmentalization to get lost, where it's like you know, the that whatever you see in your account balance, it's like real, but it doesn't feel real because it turns into this game. And all of a sudden, like when things go wrong, I think there's a a balance you have to find of like that PTSD should be real, you should feel it, it should, it should like you should internalize lessons from it, which I feel like everyone on their journey as this happens, they that happens. But can you also rem separate yourself from it? And like if that stuff is like ruining your life, like if you can't like enjoy a nice day outside or hang out with your friends and not be thinking about it or whatever, then there's some fundamental level of overexposure, not just in capital, but in like your brain, that you're just overexposed to all of it, and that clouds your judgment, it clouds like your ability to process what's happening. And I feel like we've all like on we've all been in this enough. I I'm pretty confidently can say the four of us have experienced that in some capacity at some point. But you have to come out the other side of that if you want to stay in this game for a long time, you gotta have some type of balance. Um, and so even if you do lose everything, like you gotta be able to be in a place where you can understand, like, that's not my whole life. And I truly believe you're not gonna be able to be successful and bounce back from those mistakes if you can't process things in that way. Um, and I think a lot of people right now in bear market conditions are probably stuck in that where they're like just thinking every minute of every day what went wrong, what could have been, what should have been. It's like, yes, true. Learn from it, but you gotta keep living, like you gotta keep doing other stuff. And it's not just gonna be that tunnel vision.
SPEAKER_02That was the I I've made that mistake before as well. Like you just like I I didn't leave the fucking house for like a month. Like I generally I couldn't fucking move. Like I literally couldn't get out of bed. Um like it was the it was one of the craziest things I've ever gone through. I wouldn't wish it on anyone, honestly. That that feeling of you literally you just you have no motivation to do anything. Um I think I mentioned this before, but like yeah, my dad's uh my dad's a gambler himself. He's he used to bet on horse racing back in the day, and I he's dragged me out of some uh some shit situations. Um of me I have to I just be honest with him. I think that's the bit the the best thing you can do is be honest with the people around you, and uh I would say like look, this is how this is how much I've I'm down, this is what happened, and you know, he's the one who got me to sell my or withdraw my my holdings from FTX and stop me losing from literally every single penny I had at the time. So yeah, I think it's it's beneficial to just be open with people and uh tell them what you're fucking going through because it fucking sucks, man.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. For me, after losing everything last cycle, um all the things I made from DV Summer and Abex and everything, round trip and all of that, just like revenge because I I lost it all by revenge trading in the bear market. Thinking, oh my god, I had this amount of money, I have to get back to this. So I just like traded myself to zero, basically. Playing on-chain shitters when on-chain was dead and whatever. Um and then I took like I took like a year off probably. I just didn't like I I stayed on I stayed on CT, but I didn't like trade. I just like kept like a high level engaged with it. And so that when I came back, I was like a new trader. Like I like all that trauma had been erased from me. It was like, you know what, like you had this experience, you made a lot of money, you could probably do it again. But you need to like you're starting here, starting all over. And that I didn't carry all that baggage with me because I had put so much time between myself and the space and that like trauma of losing all that money. And like I think to myself, like, okay, like maybe that's just what I need to do now, um, is just take a break. Like, there's no reason to be here and be trying to make anything. You just need to like look like go do other shit, go get a job, get a hobby, go like spend time with your family, with your friends, like live your fucking life and separate yourself from CT, and then when it's time to come back, you'll know when it's time to come back.
SPEAKER_01By the way, that's what I that's what my plan was. That's what I was gonna be doing right now, but you guys got me on this fucking podcast twice a week now.
SPEAKER_02So there's no escape, bro. There's no escape. You're stuck, you're stuck here now. There's no fucking going in.
SPEAKER_00That's a good point though, because like I I feel I I feel like that, like, I mean, just no escape part. Like, I can't escape. Like, even for me, like I tell this to my wife all the time, like, even when we're on vacation or like anything like that. Like, I I I I feel like a little crack addict just sitting there, like staring at the charts all day long, right? And like, it's like even if I want to take a break, I can't, because it's like people depend on me in regards to the charts, right? Like, I'm sitting there, like, markets doing nothing. I'm like, okay, you know what, it's a good time to take a vacation, and then I land on the plane, it's like, oh, Bitcoin just broke five thousand dollars, everyone's in my DMs, like, what's going on? Like, and I'm sitting there trying to update the charts, and like the same thing, right? It's like for me long term, I know that um, you know, I said that for me, realistically, this is my last cycle. Like, whatever happens from this point towards we go towards, you know, whatever the bear market or whatever. Like, I've I feel like I've made enough money um to just do whatever I want to do now, and I'm very grateful for that. But at the same time, um, you know, just in regards to my goals for the chat was just I want to make profitable traders, and I think I've done a good job of that. So now at this point for me, it's like I know deep down, like I'm always gonna be tied to this market somehow, whether it's meme coins or just doing, you know, like I I had a good friend, I'm not gonna name names because I'm sure a lot of people know him too that are listening on the call, but he he uh he he was very early on Pepe and stuff, like um, you know, and he told me something that'll always stick with me. And I'm like, dude, like you're up, you know, eight figures. Like realistically, it was it was like eight or nine figures. This is an insane amount of money. And I was like, Why are you what are you doing? Like, what's the point of it? And he's like, I want to be at the point where he's like, I want to be an on-chain terrorist, and I'm like, what does that even mean? And he's like, for the next cycle, folks, I want to be able to clip you know, everything and their hopes and dreams, just so that I'm I I can say that I did it. And I'm like, there's people out there that like that are like that, and then there's people out there that are like just very you know grateful for where they're at. So you know, I think what does that even mean? He wants to he wanted to kill every coin, like he's that was his goal. He's like, I want to probably lost this person kept it all? Yeah, he he's he's like a big reason of why some of these coins don't move. Um, he's yeah, like I said, like there are people out there that are just like that, and then there are people like you know that you meet that are cool and everything, but uh I think right now in regards to the market structure, it's miserable, right? So I mean like I'm seeing that I'm seeing a level of hate that I've never experienced before, just because like I said, I've I don't know why, but realistically, like it's just you know, I didn't nobody really knew who I was like a month ago. And I I I think I'm very I'm very grateful for FOMO because I think it's a great app, right? So you you have people like me that like you know have been doing this for a long time and nobody gives a shit, but now you have an app that shows okay, these guys are profitable and it gives you a base that you know you can say, Oh yeah, this is what I do.
SPEAKER_02So I think becoming like people just become very, very unreasonable in bear markets. That's why you see so much increased hate. Like uh I bro, I I get like you know, I work for a launch pad, yeah, and it's fucking crazy. Of course, yeah, yeah. I mean, I'm surprised you wake up the next day, bro. That's crazy. You're in a whole different world right now. Yeah, and it it's it's like it's like uh their coin goes down, and then that's inherently my fault, man. Some of the DMs you you get, you get a lot of fucking death threats as you can fucking imagine. It's crazy shit. Yeah, crazy shit. And yeah, I think emotions just get heightened. And like I I mentioned this at the start of the s uh the pod. I think there's a lot of new participants this cycle who got caught in this whole meme coin stuff. And they yeah, I think I think a lot of us who have been around for a few cycles, it's like never become a community member, never can't become the last guy coin.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, or whale chat.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, never join the whale chat. Oh my god, yeah, and it's never be the last guy on the fucking chain. Like, I remember there were still guys holding it on Avax like back in the day, uh when Trader Joe happened, and then we had the we had the final soldiers who just never left. And I think a lot of these guys, like the new guys, just never never saw the concept of just never become a community member, never get bogged down on one thing, get stuck in the market on one thing, always be moving with the times. And I I think that's why we see so much hatred, and you know, I I guess it's just new participants got burned, just like every cycle.
SPEAKER_00For sure, every cycle, every cycle we have, you know, people like the blind leading the blind on TikTok, right? Like you literally see those meme coin traders where it's like they're live streaming to like a thousand people and it's a 10k market cap, they're like, Everyone buy, everyone buy, right? And then those people get burned, and then you have the people that you know they hear a success story of, for example, Dog Wave Hat. How many times do we see that story? You know, people made millions and millions of dollars, and people are like, Oh, I should look into this meme coin stuff, and they came in thinking the same idea, and then next you know, they're buying like Rhizmus and you know, the stupid coins like that, and it's like, yeah, they get burned on those two. So I think over time, experience is one thing, like you have to go through one cycle and lose for you to be profitable on the next cycle. There are a select few that, of course, get lucky, right? So they get into those coins or whatever and they make millions of dollars and they never come back. And honestly, good for them. I'm jealous of those people that never come back to this space because it's just extremely toxic. But um, in general, like I think it's always you know just a good idea to understand that everyone goes through this, it's not you. Like, I feel like people blame themselves a lot where they're like, why me? Why me? The victim mentality of you know, why why can he do it and I can't do it? And I feel like a lot of times people just need to understand that it just comes with experience. Like, there are people that are better than me in regards to trading meme coins, and you know, I'm not gonna sit there and compare myself to them. I'm just like, cool, it's it's you know their turn right now, but I don't know, maybe in two years it might be my turn where I'm like the now the you know, like the Ansom or whatever, and it's like people don't choose that, it just happens.
SPEAKER_02So gone stats. Yeah, I was gonna say the like I think you you go on these accounts uh of of people who just spread the most crazy shit, or they they they're probably the the it's probably the same people fucking hating. Yeah, you look at the account creation and it's like mid-2025, and it's like fuck man, fuck you saw you joined at the fucking at the at the top, uh, or that it's like it's like January 2025, just as Trump happened, like yeah, fuck man.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. Last thing I want to say before we get out of here is like a lot of this stuff too, and people, you know, they round trip or whatever, they attribute their success to something other than like right place, right time, and luck. And I do think luck plays so much into this shit.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 100%.
SPEAKER_03And they they're like, oh my god, I made a million dollars, like that's all me, and then their ego gets you. And they're like, oh, like I made a millionaire, I'm gonna just gonna size up, even though they've never traded that type of size before. Um they're they're used to trading$5,000, now they're trading half a million dollars, and you're like, you've never traded that type of size before, you have no business doing this. Um and they attribute some someone really successful told this to me uh this year. They're like, you know, don't think that you did this yourself. Like take time away, reflect on it. Like you got lucky to some degree, right place, right time, a lot of it. Um and if you don't acknowledge that to some degree, like you that's how round trips happen, and that's how giving market money back to the market happens because you have a god complex and you think you're the most talented person in the fucking world. And the reality is you're an easy mode trader during good times and you made some money there. Um and I think people's ego cost a lot of round tripping.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think I think the market always adjusts your portfolio size to where to where you should be, naturally. Every single time, it will always self-adjust the way you should be. And that's a tough reality to accept. Um, it's a tough reality to accept. And that's not be me being harsh on on people who may be listening right now uh who are in that shoe. That's not me being harsh. I've literally been in your shoes before. You've just got to accept fucking reality and stop trying to blame people and fucking get on with it because we've all been there. Um and you're either gonna be here next cycle to make money back or you're not, and I'm gonna make it again. Uh, and that's the reality.
SPEAKER_03So I am gonna say you should blame Satsats and you should blame Bong Fun, and you should tweet at him and you should tell him that he needs to do a better job. So if you are down bad, if you are down bad, go at Satsats. Um and download FOMO, revenge trade there, make it all back, during bare recognition. Um, but uh yeah, good episode today, boys. Uh thanks, Pingu. It was great chatting.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, of course.
SPEAKER_03Thanks for having me guys. You imparted a lot of wisdom on us all today. We could all learn something from your rules. You literally have uh I mean, I don't think I have a single rule. So that that's good. Um and uh yeah, uh we'll be back. What day is today? Friday? Today's Friday.
SPEAKER_02Weeks flying partners.
SPEAKER_03We've got a weekend coming up. Um prices look just like bad.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Um Pingu, give us your give us your take on like where you see things heading.
SPEAKER_03Quick take, yeah, yeah. Quick quick take before we go. Where are we headed? What are you looking at right now in terms of like a setup?
SPEAKER_00Um uh I mean uh okay, so just real quick, I think we're still in a range. I wouldn't like realistically, I wouldn't really I'm not really looking at anything unless we break 60k. If we break 60k in my next level, and I know people are gonna be like, uh, you know, fine, fine God, but it's 47.8. It would be the next level. Fucking gold.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, but that's that's if you lose 60k. That's if you lose 60.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so that's only if we lose 60. So if we can get to like yeah, so right now, like I said, we're at 69, but I think if we can break this range of 75, then it'd be around 83. So we're in a point of a neutral position where I'm not taking anything, I'm just gonna let the market come to me. And I think a lot of people just need to understand that you know, right here is where you make the mistake. You enter here, and uh you're gonna get chopped out alive. So it's better to just sit on your hands and again, whichever, whether that's in cash or meme coins or whatever, and just be prepared for a worst case scenario. So that's my worst case scenario is 48.7, and then no trades.
SPEAKER_01So no real like directional insight right now as to like 69 back up to 75, back down to 60.
SPEAKER_00Like, no, there's no confirmations, like there's literally nothing on the chart that's gonna be like, yeah, this is where we're going. Because again, like A is weekend, and B, I'm leaning a little bit more towards the bearish setup now. Um, only because we already broke we broke 75 and we couldn't hold it. So I'm actually leaning towards a bearish setup. Where if we do end up breaking 60, then yeah, it's like you're gonna see you know people on the TL start posting ropes, so it'll get interesting.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, bro. 47, fuck me, bro.
SPEAKER_00I think 47.8, and that's based on the weekly, and that's again, like my lines are very precise, and the reason why I'm aiming for that is just based on previous structures. Like, people need to understand that you know, we've already we've already seen a capitulation at the exact same level we're currently on. It was uh within two days back in August 4th of 2024. We were at 65, and we candled within two days down into 49.7. But that's the thing, we've already had that test. The only test we didn't have was 47.8, and that's based on you know how I do technical analysis, that's the level of my interest. So that's if we break break 60. I'm not here to doom and gloom. That's only if we break 60. If we don't, great, we'll just continue running from 75 to 83. But right now is not a point for you know to deploy capital or anything because again, we don't, there's it's a range, and with range, you don't want to play with uh you know guessing, it's a worst thing to do.
SPEAKER_02I hate to be that guy, but I would fucking love 47k. Yeah, I think 47k give it to me. Don't be that guy. I hate to be a type of fuck me. I would break my rule of 77 cash, bro. I would be down to 10, man.
SPEAKER_03I would be things for 47. Holy, which is how you know we won't get it. Look at it as we're getting excited. We won't fucking. Oh my god, holy seven.
SPEAKER_00We hit 47 and then the key's going lower, and we just continue to get it.
SPEAKER_01Stats, if you're happy about 47, think about how happy you'll be at zero.
SPEAKER_025k, 5k shit.
SPEAKER_00Wait till Ethereum is$30, guys.
SPEAKER_02Oh my uh, it's going back twice the old price. Let's get better.
SPEAKER_00We're going to 83 yet.
SPEAKER_03Oh bad. All right, guys. All right. Have a good weekend. Uh go download FOMO, follow Pengu charts, um, and use uh ref code risk on. Yeah, risk on. 10% off your trading fees. Um, and uh we'll be back Tuesday, 12 o'clock. Bitcoin's going to 47k. You heard it here first.