Risk On Podcast
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Risk On Podcast
Are we back (again)? | EP 56
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BTC is ripping, stocks are at all-time highs, and sats is fully sidelined calling 78.3K the top.
On the menu this week:
- sats mapping out his exact path to topping the market (starts shorting 78.3, capitulates in the 80s, buys the top — the playbook is set)
- Swizzles hype bags and his new life as an OpenClaw pilled perps guy
- Wood bought lighter after specifically saying he would never buy lighter
- Allbirds pivoting to AI and what that tells you about the current market
- Sailor's Strike "savings account" and where exactly the yield is coming from (don't ask)
- Tether walking in and bailing out Drift, mogging Circle on their home turf
- Why CT feels dead right now and what to actually do about it in a bear market
- World Liberty Finance's 2-year cliff + 2-year linear unlock (who could have seen this coming)
- Claude Opus 4.7, diminishing LLM returns, and Anthropic holding Mythos hostage
- An all-time Jeff Epstein clip to close things out
Remember I said at the end of last stream I was like, oh, I think we're gonna be back at seven uh 68k. I was knee sliding, happy of myself being sidelined, and this is now me. The sidelined dog. I don't trust the bounce, but I I secretly do trust the bounce, but I'm sidelined, so I can't trust it. Um because I'm praying for lower, because I have no coins. Uh embarrassing, embarrassing, truly embarrassing.
SPEAKER_02This is the classic. Uh, we've all been here before where it's like when when prices are chopping or not looking good and you're sidelined, you're very confidently bearish, right? And then and then stuff starts to go up and we still don't know, but all of a sudden you gotta you gotta keep talking confidently, you gotta keep being uh we don't trust this. But we know what's happening in your mind right now. Yeah for sure, Sats.
SPEAKER_07We we know you're a little stressed. You know, I'm looking at this chart, I'm instantly thinking, range high, it's over, range high. Send it down, send it down. Let's revisit range lows, time to correct the shorts. You have to say it for your well-being. And and you know, you convince yourself, you know, once we break set 60 uh 76k, you know, I might start start to get bearish. No, I'm gonna I'm not gonna get bear, I'm not gonna get bullish there. I'm gonna wait till 78k, then I'm gonna start. I'm gonna say, guys, time to sell, time to correct the shorts. We're going lower, and then I'll capitulate in the 80s. Um probably by the top. Let's go! Welcome!
SPEAKER_06Risk on episode 56, brought to you by FOMO. We got Sats, dirty, dirty sideline bear. Last Tuesday saying how sidelined he was and how and how uh how we were topping. How's it feel to do, big pussy sets?
SPEAKER_07Uh not great, man. Not great. I remember, you know, last cycle I had these tweets as well. Whenever we whenever we would go up, I would tweet like, don't be a pussy or something like that. Like, everyone stop being a pussy, like just get long. And now here I am. The tables have turned. The I'm now a pussy. I um I just man, I just I'm just bare pilled. I'm just bare pillowed and the market's ripping, it's just nothing worse. It just doesn't get worse. Like, stocks are all time high. Like, how the fuck are stocks at all-time high? Like, what the hell is even going on?
SPEAKER_02Not only that, you're also self-aware enough. You have you're literally have mapped out your entire journey ahead of time. And instead of just bidding, you say, No, I'm gonna wait for this and then that, and then when it finally gets here, I'm gonna capitulate and I'm gonna buy. And it's all playing out exactly as you said.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I'm gonna buy. I'm gonna buy like 80 plus, and I'm gonna top the market. It's gonna go to 82, 83, and I'm gonna top it. And I'm just I'm gonna be happy. You know what? I'm just gonna be happy because I'm like, you know, I ran this playbook. I might not have made money, but I was right. Um, but nah, man. The market does look, you know, the Bitcoin chart does look uh appeasing. Um look, okay. It look it looks juicy, I agree. It does look juicy, but but stocks are all time high and Bitcoin's fucking lagging. You know, it's the classic old bear case argument. What happens if stocks pull back?
SPEAKER_06What happens scared money doesn't make money, Sats. Tales old as time.
SPEAKER_07Real shit.
SPEAKER_06Dreamers, believers, permables.
SPEAKER_07I am sidelined. However, the one thing I'm not sidelined on is Zcash. I'm still a privacy guy. No one can shake me out of this fucking bag. I am a privacy guy. So I've caught some of the move. I just haven't caught the move on majors, and I haven't caught as much of it as what I what I should. Um, but I'm still a privacy guy. But yeah, the Bitcoin chart does look good. However, we are approaching serious resistance, folks. Serious resistance, uh 78. Beware. Beware, range high. Where is that? Where's the resistance at? For me, 78.3. 78.3 is my is my line in the sand. Um I'll be taking some short positions. I'll be taking some short positions at 78.3k. Um I will probably get stopped out. Um and I will be sad about it, but you know, um, I've got to cope and crack some bear shorts. If it the worst case scenario for me here is we sprint past 84 and we just start ripping towards the 90s, then I'm in a rough spot, you know. I've got no coins, I've just got my Zcash. Um I'm in a bit of a tough spot. Saying that, Solana doesn't really hasn't really moved. Hasn't really moved if we're being honest. Um still in a rough spot, still good value. I have missed the whole hype run. I don't know about you guys, but like I well, I didn't miss all of it, but I caught like maybe 20% only. Um yeah, like the chart looks amazing. Probably the best looking chart right now as well.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, I don't own a single hype token ever since I sold mid-20s. Uh post-yes, I have just been I don't know, waiting for like 15 bucks or something. I don't know what I've been doing. My head's been in my ass. I've been just like telling myself that I'm gonna I'm gonna get this magical price, and then I never get it. And then it turns out that Jeff only wears the same pair of blue lemon shorts every single day. And just like me, and I was that's all I needed. If he had just said that six months ago, I would have just turned it in. I'm a simple guy. People have complicated thesis, all this stuff. I I'm pretty straightforward. Easy man to please.
SPEAKER_02Easy for you guys. Fortunately for you guys, fortunately for this show, we're not all sideline dogs. Uh I bought a lot of hype. Um, I actually thought I was really late, and I thought I was chasing late when I did because I bought most of it a little bit sub-30, but most of it was like around 30 bucks, 31 bucks, even 32 bucks. And I felt like I was buying a little bit too high and chasing at the time. Been a nice run. However, uh, I did sell half uh when things got scary a few weeks a couple weeks ago when it when it dipped to like 38 bucks or something like that. Um, so I don't love that execution on it. It felt like risk management at the time. Um, but yeah, I I hold that's my largest holding. I'm I am primarily in hype. Um, I don't hold much, basically no Bitcoin. Um, but I am, as you guys know, we talked a little bit off stream. I'm thanks to OpenClaw, I'm a little bit of a perps guy now and big love guy. Proud to say I'm a privacy man once again.
SPEAKER_06Oh, well, I will never forget uh before you get into this, you telling me, I was telling you that I was like, you were asking me how to short things like four months ago. You're like, I don't even know how to do that. And here you are.
SPEAKER_02I still don't do that. No, it's not even in my DNA to short anything. I I couldn't imagine having to truly express bearishness in such a fashion. I would never have interest, I don't even have interest to learn how to short.
SPEAKER_06I'm surprised you're not like a 20x, 25x long guy, to be honest with you. Like maximum. I'm dabbling with 2x long.
SPEAKER_02That feels spicy to me. A 2x long feels egregiously spicy right now. This is how it begins. This is how it stops. Yeah, I I just man, I've heard I I've seen so many of the horror stories with people. And I'm like, I also I I got hurt enough badly enough on 1010 just holding spot. So I just I've seen what can happen. And, you know, I it's like you've been around long enough, you're like, okay, I I just can't fall for that trap of like, well, the liquidation is just only, you know, it's 40% lower. There's no way that could hit. It's like that could hit at at any moment. So I I'm I'm not trying to get liquidated, um, but I am playing around a little bit because I've I've got my AI powered up uh assistant, and I gotta be honest, guys, open claw has been an insane resource here. Um, you know, I placed these bids and I don't even know what my mindset would have been for all this because I missed that short squeeze where it had where it you know ran up, and I felt so much FOMO when Zek was running up. But I patiently waited and you know, my open claw assisted me on finding levels to bid. $332 was where I placed my bid. What did it get down to before everything popped this morning? Like 331.93 cents or something. So um it's obviously not gonna be a hundred percent hit rate, but I just feel like um I feel a little bit of certainty like uh being able to like identify levels and like I've never been a risk management person. I'm learning how to do it because based on how the last year went. It just feels necessary, you know. Um now you've got the edge. You've got the edge in AI.
SPEAKER_07Who would have fucking thought? I'm a quant now guy.
SPEAKER_02In case anyone's looking for a quant, I'm available. So what's next?
SPEAKER_07High frequency trading. High frequency trading is next. The next jump is coming up here.
SPEAKER_06So uh oil's nuking, equity's ripping, BTC going hard, SAT's the sideline to bear. Posting that he is, he's calling for 88.3 resistance and he's in a short. Top collars are just poor and dumb. We're just gonna forget about that. Um $400 million worth of shorts were just liquidated. I'll be called we got Bitcoin funding rates turning the most negative since 2023. Signaling a potential market bottom.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, potential, potentially.
SPEAKER_02I did I did see this. I don't I saw this article last night uh when I was doing research, and I don't know if this I couldn't believe this is true, but it says that this is over a 30-day period too, so it's not just today. Uh the Bitcoin funding rates hit the most negative since the FTX blowup uh over this past month, despite us being we've been grinding higher for what, like uh a week and a half, two weeks? It probably hasn't been as long as I think. It feels like we've been going up for a long time now.
SPEAKER_07It's been about about two weeks.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. So throughout that period and the the two weeks, what day is it today? April 17th. So this is from April 1 and on. Uh, funding rates have been consistently as negative, meaning shorts are piling on aggressively as the FTX bottom. Um, and it said historically this is these types of funding rates when they last for that long very often result in in strong short squeeze setups. So I think Sats, to your point, that doesn't mean that we just are up and we're back in a bull market, but maybe this is this counter rally that's gonna be strong during that. You see it. You I feel like you see a big counter trend rally every bear market. Yeah, we don't I'm trying to remember like historically what's happened, but yeah, I mean it's it's um it's just I I find it hard to be bullish.
SPEAKER_06Here he goes, here he goes.
SPEAKER_07I just find it hard to be bullish overall crypto here when like I feel like a lot of investors just got sucked up by this whole AI stuff, and I don't think a lot of people realize how much capital left to go play the AI game. And yes, we're seeing right now, like it's getting throthy, like we're seeing the same shit we saw with the metaverse, where stock companies just dead companies go, okay, we're gonna become a metaverse company and our stock goes up 30%. Um, we're seeing that happen right now with AI companies. We're seeing shoe companies turn into AI companies and and rally 30%. Usually a sign of massive throth in that space.
SPEAKER_02But it's just are you referring to all birds, the AI company, the AI company?
SPEAKER_07I am, I am, yeah. I am.
SPEAKER_06Um that's a great exit scam, by the way. I love that.
SPEAKER_07Exactly. Yeah, that's exactly what it is, and that's usually the sign that you know AI is getting a little bit crazy. Um, not not as in tech wise, but in like market-wise. Um, but it you know, it is a clear picture when stocks are literally what they broke out um nearly two percent above all-time high. And you know, Bitcoin, yes, we're up, don't get me wrong, we're up, but we're nowhere near stocks here. We're no we're not playing the same game. Um and it still seems like, yeah, the the the market and the money, liquid money in this market is interested in other avenues.
SPEAKER_06Um man, can you imagine if you rotated all of your crypto holdings when Bitcoin was in like 110 to 120 into equities and also real estate? Can you imagine?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, yeah, you've just you've just hit the fucking absolute jackpot.
SPEAKER_06I just described myself set. Oh, here we go.
SPEAKER_05No big deal.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, here we go. Did you see that post I put in about uh what's that guy's name? He runs a runs a runs a questionable gay, Christmas gay podcast um about him exiting property. Thoughts on that?
SPEAKER_06Oh, that guy? Yeah, real estate guy? He's just such a thick miner, man.
SPEAKER_02He's what's a grand. Who is that? I saw everyone post him. I've never heard of that yet.
SPEAKER_06He has this famous podcast called Ice Coffee Hour that's like big with like the wannabe like Tradfight community, and he talked about that and they interview a bunch of people and talk about money. And he made this whole long-form tweet about how he's done investing in real estate and how it's like uh how the returns just aren't there anymore.
SPEAKER_07Um his argument was like he gets he gets a five percent yield on the property, but then he has to deal with all the shit when he could just hold a T-bill now. Uh like it actually doesn't work out to be that profitable. But I'm not a big real estate guy, I don't really know.
SPEAKER_06Well, he's not wrong. I mean, he's not right at all. I mean, uh prices are so ridiculous. Like people buying like the the valuations of we don't want to talk about this, but the valuations of properties are so obscene right now. Um that way saying is exactly true, and like you can only charge people so much money for rent, like people can only afford so much.
SPEAKER_07So I I don't think he's wrong.
SPEAKER_06I do think he's annoying though.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, so like property values outweigh how much rent is actually uh even possible to charge.
SPEAKER_06If I didn't have kids and a family, there's no world I'd be buying houses. Yeah, or like owning property. Like it just doesn't make any sense at current prices. But if you have a family and you have kids and you need your kids to go to school and you want like a community and you want to be able to like travel to travel with them and make that easy, like owning property is the best and easiest way to do that. Um and also if your time horizons are long, like if you're gonna buy a few things and you're gonna hold them for 30 years, like who gives a shit? Yeah but if your idea is to like buy something for five or ten years and rent it out and like whatever, then that might not make so much sense.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, it's it's it's become a become a very, very long-term game, not as long-term as it was before, but yeah, it's I saw uh I think it was trade and axi tweeting as well, like everyone always bets against the US economy, and but it always manages to make this like fucking V reversal. Um and it's always the case. And I I saw that this this whole move on on stocks, especially in the SP, is the most one of the most volatile weeks in the SP's history. Um and we've like I think everyone knows here, everyone probably listens, the SP averages around 7% a year, 6% a year on average returns. This past week we've moved over 13%. Um that's wild. It's wild, yeah. It's absolutely wild. Let's go. When I look at this chart, I'm just like, oh my, like it's it's unstoppable. It's unstoppable.
SPEAKER_06And it's like yeah, you look at this chart and you be like, and to me at least, I'm just like, I don't even need to own Bitcoin. Yeah, I I own Bitcoin for volatility. I'm getting it.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, you get it in stocks now. It's uh it's madness. And yeah, I think we're seeing a lot of these big uh companies postpone their um IPOs as well, it seems. It seems SpaceX has just pushed theirs off a little bit. Um, same with anthropic. Um, and it's like these valuations, what these guys are gonna launch at is gonna be uh absolutely insane. Like I have no idea how this plays out. I feel like to me, it feels like a route to fleece retail. I I would love to be proven wrong, but obviously these investment banks have got to sell these deals to willing buyers at IPO price. And what is what what is the IPO price of SpaceX? Like, gonna be it's gonna be in the trillion. Two trillion or something. Two trillion. So they they the investment banks who who who when when when there's inevitably IPOs, they've got to call up people on day one and or or pre pre-launch and convince these guys to buy. How many guys are they gonna be able to convince to buy at two trilli? Like that seems a very good thing.
SPEAKER_02At the same time, though, all this stuff is reflexive to uh it's all connected, right? So it'll all be reflexive. We talked about the real estate market and everything. It's like a lot of these, a lot of these people working in AI, there's so much of this, you know, you can call it froth, you could call it a bubble, you could call it, you know, legitimate, whatever you want to call it. The reality is a lot of these people who are super paper rich right now have not realized any any uh liquidity yet. Like they haven't they haven't made their gains because they haven't had their IPO, they haven't had, you know, unlocks or whatever. That's coming real soon when these IPOs do hit, when they start to vest and everything, it's just gonna there's gonna be a flood of money in this specific sector that's gonna flow other places too. So um, you know, it it's uh it's crazy, it's a fascinating time, but like there's uh there's so many layers to this, and you add in all the geopolitical turmoil, and it's that's why we've got crazy volatility going on right now.
SPEAKER_07I I it's funny you say like unrealized gains and you know the all the all the all that money. I I know I know two people who are up nearly 10 figures on anthropic right now. Um, and I yeah, they they were telling me like some of the deals they got and some of the people were in the deal. Some some of them are up like way more. Like you said, 10 figures.
SPEAKER_0510 figures? Yeah, someone's up to the. Who do you know up 10 figures on anthropic? You know uh Dario?
SPEAKER_07No, that's you know, yeah. No, that there's there's apparently there's two guys who are up just like a complete obscene, obscene amount. Um, and obviously, like how the fuck is that like that it's gotta come from somewhere when they start to start to try and even offload, maybe they never will, but like, yeah, it seems I don't know, everything seems very f frothy here.
SPEAKER_02By the way, um speaking of froth, I this is this is uh completely unironically. My friend's mom sent this to him uh uh when the Allbird stuff came out. Yes, uh yes for one. Too bad we don't own any Allbird stock. Dang. Uh tried to explain to her.
SPEAKER_06Okay, maybe Sats is right.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. There's a very failing shoe company bought out of bankruptcy for peanuts. She said, but they're pivoting to AI, I heard on the radio. So there's no froth here, guys. There's no froth here.
SPEAKER_06No froth here.
SPEAKER_02It's a very rational market.
SPEAKER_06Given how frothy like equities may seem, crypto. It feels like most people are pretty sidelined on it right now.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, is that for a reason, you know?
SPEAKER_06Like I is it for a reasonable.
SPEAKER_07It's just is there anything interesting going on at the moment? Like, I feel like in the world, maybe I'm just this is me being turbo bear-pilled here, guys, but like in the world, is there not just uh there's other things that are just changing the world more than what crypto was or is right now, and you know, the bet is is always reflective that you you're betting on is crypto gonna change the world in two or three years time more than what ai is. Like, I just maybe it's a bad way to think about it, but you know, it doesn't matter.
SPEAKER_02Right, but it's a di it's a dynamic narrative because there's so there's so many factors involved in this. At the end of the day, if you boil it down to what is crypto and what is Bitcoin specifically, like there are there are a lot of claims, there's a lot of things that people want to accomplish with it. Some people really believe in it, some people are using it as a as a you know a speculatory form to make money. At the end of the day, Bitcoin has in its history, at least in the last eight years for sure, has been an expression of if the markets are risk on or risk off, right? And when excess liquidity comes into the markets and people are looking for a way to express tail end that they want tail end risk, that they want to have exposure to things that are further out on the on the curve, Bitcoin is one of those assets. You know, it's not the only one, but like if you have froth in markets, you have people who are bringing are getting confident in the market again, especially in the case like now where all there's been so much selling that's been done. A lot of the people who are bearish have sold, have gotten out. Um, it's a relatively small asset class if you compare it to a lot of these other like core institutional assets. Um and so I don't think it takes as much, as much money to move this asset as you know, some of the other, some of the other kind of comparables uh that would be viewed as risk assets. But you know, that's why it kind of always trades alongside like tech stocks, it trades alongside some of these other assets because when there's money in the system and people are looking for ways to get like reflexive upside, um it's just kind of like been ingrained into society as this is one of the things that can give you access to the upside when when things are frothy. Yeah.
SPEAKER_07So it just travels down, travels down the risk curve into you know riskier assets, and Bitcoin's one of them. Yeah. I I do it's always a tail as old as time that in it. Like it does happen, don't get me wrong. But like, yeah, um I guess I'm just being bear bearish on like all altcoins as well at the moment. Like, but it's still it's like I I think I have a lot of contrarian opinions in in Solana as well. Like I think Solana are doing a good job at the moment. I think it's one of one like it's gonna be an attractive uh asset next cycle. Um, a lot of people disagree with me. They say they're gonna be it's gonna be the next Ethereum, but yeah, I'm between a rock and a hard place right now with it.
SPEAKER_02Uh yeah, I mean I I think it's it's tough because it's one of those things, of course, if you really boil it down, like the the things that would make these like materially fundamentally valuable, um like right now, like the asset prices, even after these corrections, probably don't justify like their true value today. So there's so many, it's it's it's like there's so many factors at play, like with a Solana, for example, where it's like if the world that they are expressing the possibility for, the vision plays out where all this infrastructure and and rails move on to Solana, it's probably exponentially more valuable than even what its all-time high was. Like if they were to hit that best case scenario and it's truly adopted, I think you see like exponential uh growth and value in terms of what it is. Like, you know, there's just it's a crazy vision for for what you could accomplish with Solana. That said, how likely is that that happened? If it doesn't happen all the way, then is it worth anything? Really hard to say. So um it's there's so much speculation still, and I think it's like there's like you if you're rational, there's tons of reasons to justifiably talk yourself out of this. You just have to understand that like not all the participants that are taking place in buying these assets are rational people. Yeah, you know, and and I don't know eventually there's a reckoning where stuff needs to create fundamental value or not, but that could be 15 years from now before it finds its true, you know, place of like realistic value. Um until then it's it's gonna swing both directions and it's gonna the speculation probably continues, right?
SPEAKER_07Just just while I remember it, did you guys see the strike from um Sailor and actually the fundamentals of like look into actually what it is and uh and how how it works? Uh it's fucking crazy, man. It's crazy. I listened to one of his podcasts um on it, and then I watched the Coffee Zeller video after. And he goes, like, he goes, Oh, this is a financial instrument. Like this is a financial instrument, it's a bit of financial engineering, um, where you're gonna get safe dividends. And then uh someone asks him, they go, like, oh, so can you turn the dividends off? And he goes, Yeah, of course, of course. And it's like what? Like, yeah, and he's pitching it as a bank account, he's pitching it as a savings account, and it's like it's like what happens if it drops below your hundred dollars, and he's like, Oh, we're just gonna turn the dividends off and buy back the chart. And it's like, what if increased selling I oh I you know, we don't know, you know, it's uh it's a new product, it's a simple product, and it's just it's a little bit scary, you know? It's a little bit fucking scary. Um but once again, maybe overthinking it a little.
SPEAKER_06Like maybe uh our guy Guart, I don't know if you guys follow Guar Corey Guard on Twitter, he's funny as hell, tweeted this today. Find you a girl who doesn't ask where the yield comes from about strike limits with the picture of Bible.
SPEAKER_02I was gonna say that's not a real uh that's not a real STRTR.
SPEAKER_07Do you know where he's generating the yield from as well? This is like so his idea is uh strike or Bitcoin averages on in his mind 30% a year. So if Bitcoin averages every year 30% a year, he can afford to pay the dividends payments. But what happens when Bitcoin doesn't achieve the 30% a year, you know? What does that mean?
SPEAKER_02Taylor's not even up 30% on Bitcoin and it's like No, no, no, stats. No, no, no, we don't talk about that. We don't talk about that.
SPEAKER_06Like we said last time. This is a 2027 problem. We're not we're not we're not bringing this problem into 2026. Yeah. Um then stopped this picture and thought it was Jeffrey Epstein.
SPEAKER_07We had to get close to my mother about to give it a different angle. I was like, who is that? Who is that? Oh my god.
SPEAKER_02See the video that came out, I think it was a couple few weeks ago, where some guy was this old guy was on a podcast and like had he know he knew Jeffrey Epstein, but he had no idea what had happened with all this stuff. No way. Oh my god, I gotta find it. If I can find it, we'll play it. We'll play it. Nothing to do with crypto and AI, but it lives under a under a rock, man.
SPEAKER_07Under a rock.
SPEAKER_06That's absolutely incredible.
SPEAKER_07That's impossible not to know, you know.
SPEAKER_05Oh my god, I gotta find this.
SPEAKER_06It's gotta be, yeah. We'll we'll pull it up in a little bit. But so prices are good. On chain's kind of heating up. Swizzle got airdropped a cool like $200,000 in unk in UncCoin.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_06Um nothing is realized.
SPEAKER_02Nothing is realized.
SPEAKER_06Swizzle in true in true fashion has not sold anything. Sats, who everyone calls an unk, even though he's two years old. Um, in the chat we have with the FOMO guys, they called you an unk. Sats, but I'd always think it's funny.
SPEAKER_07People think every group chat, every group chat just associates me with being old. I I think it's because everyone when ETB became a bit uh like everyone knew of ETB, everyone considered us like the old guys. Um and I kind of just got looped in with everyone. Um everyone I know is old, and then I would get clowned in the young guy chat, so they would remove me, going like, this guy's on the other side, guys. This guy doesn't know what's going on. So not a bad thing, you know.
SPEAKER_06Uh so Uncapped that ripped up to 20 million. It was kind of interesting. They they started this whole kind of airdrop meta, which has been fun. Um, I never got the airdrop, and I in famous last words told people in a chat that I was gonna buy it at 1.5 million, and then it just went to 20 million the next day. Good stuff, good stuff. So um I did just put that bottom in, so you're welcome on Colders. Oh, did you actually? I actually did, yeah.
SPEAKER_02I actually haven't I I've I've been intentionally not even looking at the chart. Um oh we're we're looking good.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, we're looking good. Um so that's been fun on phone. That's my first on-chain trade since in probably over a month. So I said last episode I was gonna bridge money on-chain. Um I did. It took me it took me a few days. Um I bought I bought I bought a bunch of lighter and then I took I sold some of that lighter um at like a 10% profit or so. To buy to go gamble, to go gamble on-chain. I took it. Welcome back, man.
SPEAKER_07Welcome back to the card.
SPEAKER_06So I'm back to the on-chain game. I'm back to the on-chain game.
SPEAKER_02Wait, time out. You said uh you said you you you on-ramped and you bought lighter.
SPEAKER_06I on-ramped and I bought lighter.
SPEAKER_02Did you not am I tell me if I'm wrong? Did you not on the last episode, I'm pretty sure you said something like, I'm an on-ramp, on-ramp money. My my business is I turn small amounts into large amounts. I'm not gonna go fucking buy lighter. I think you specifically identified lighter as the one thing that you were not going to buy.
SPEAKER_06I didn't. But that's exactly what I did.
SPEAKER_02And then it's the only that's actually the only thing that you did.
SPEAKER_06Only thing in the bug was a buck good size of lighter. And then but I did sell some of my lighter to then go gamble on FOMO now. So now we're getting.
SPEAKER_02Can you just like walk us through the process of how you came about buying lighter then? Because that's uh it's just amazing.
SPEAKER_06How I came about buying lighter. Uh it's the it's it's the classic uh I missed out on the main runner, and it's time to buy the beta. And that is exactly it. But altcoin major is all this time. Altcoin Majors edition. That was that that was the thesis. Um, like I said, I'm a simple guy. Um, I caught I'm actually up on it. I bought around like low, close to a buck on most of it, so we're we're okay. Um, I sold some to put that bottom in on UncCoin for all the unks out there. You're you're fucking welcome. Um, and we're gonna see where that goes. And it's funny because yesterday our boy him.eth crashed out and quit memes.
SPEAKER_05Yeah. Uh disappointing, man. Disappointing. And then he joined the biggest meme group.
SPEAKER_06And then he joined the biggest meme coin chat and all crypto on the same day.
SPEAKER_07Yeah. Special. Great guy, honestly, honestly, great guy. Um, I've got to say, his tweets are. I wouldn't be surprised if he's just Rage Mate. Like, if this is just just full rage base. Um exactly.
SPEAKER_02It's just a bummer because we made him the KOL of the week. And oh my god, bro. That's he's now he's not even he says he's not a KOL anymore. What do you do with that?
SPEAKER_06You know, he's not a KOL anymore.
SPEAKER_02We got a crown, new champion.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, new new call of the week. We should bring that back now.
SPEAKER_06Like Yeah, we should. Guys, being tweeting consistently is so fucking hard. I took a few days off and it felt so good. And then last night I was like, I have to, I like had to start tweeting again. Like my account was gonna die.
SPEAKER_02You gotta maintain your brand image, you know.
SPEAKER_06You turn off your engagement, your engagement gets crushed, your brand image gets crushed, so I had to go into some chat to find some pastas at least to like toss out in the timeline. You know, I couldn't real sweet.
SPEAKER_07I couldn't tweet some shit in group chats. Crazy.
SPEAKER_02But if you don't, if you don't keep tweeting, they might they might start mistakenly thinking you're a nice cat. You gotta be careful about that.
SPEAKER_06I know, I know.
SPEAKER_07I know I was thinking about this um quite quite a lot actually, because I haven't twit I haven't been tweeting a lot either. And it's I find that CT has changed so much this cycle. I think a lot of people don't know what it was like in previous cycles, but I just feel like the value you get from this space is it has diminished a lot. Um it feels like a lot of the big players, I don't know if they're just not on my timeline anymore. I just don't really see anything crazy interesting. Um and it just feels like a lot of rage-based slop uh nowadays on CT. Um, but it's also because we're in a we're in a downtrend and a lot of people log off and stop stop tweeting interesting shit because there isn't a lot of interesting shit to tweet about. But it does feel it's it does feel a bit counterintuitive to be to be scrolling the timeline all the all day right now, like it was fucking six months ago to a year. But yeah, I I think also as well, I think Gainesy hits this well when he talks about it. Like it is a subject of the markets just being down, um, and it will return. But yeah, I think the question right now. I have a question for you though.
SPEAKER_02I have a question for you guys. Like it obviously has changed. I don't agree with that, or I don't disagree with that, but as part of it, I have a little bit of a concern that like I feel like the the algorithm messed things up too. Like, some people stopped trying to tweet as much because it's like the the algorithm just funnels it has a way of feeding certain like types of accounts better now, and it it almost like the algorithm feeds the toxicity a little bit because you can't really get value. It's like I can't even scroll my timeline chronologically if I want to anymore. You know, it's it's gotten pretty different.
SPEAKER_07I saw Thread Guy speaking about this. Um, and it it it was uh it was Rasmir saying to Thread Guy, great characters, by the way. Um you already know it's a good story with these two involved. Uh Rasmir was saying to Thread Guy that his his content or his content on Twitter was slopped now. Um and Thread Guy went on stream, like went through his own tweets, and he was just tweeting one-liners, and he was like, I don't even realize I'm doing it. It's just the algorithm rewards these one-line tweets with no no real thought behind them. And he's posting his uh theses and his interesting tweets, interesting thoughts in his Telegram. And I feel like a lot of people went down that route because the algorithm, like you said, just doesn't reward that sort of content anymore. It doesn't reward a long-form content, it doesn't reward a new idea, it it rewards uh trying to go viral. Um I think you've probably hit the nail on the head, like that's what CT has become now. Everyone's trying to just go viral instead of tweeting something interesting. Like it's rare, you you you you scroll down, you see a long thesis on whatever, um, with what more than 50 likes now. Um but you'll see some guy fucking rage baiting or taking the piss out of Sailor at 500 likes, which is fantastic. Um interesting place right now. Interesting place.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, it definitely is. I mean, long form Twitter, Seth, that's like your bread and butter. I'm a big long-form guy. You're a big long-form guy. I've been tweeting one two-sentence tweets for two, three years now. That's it. Um I've been tweeting slop forever. Thread guy's new to this game. That's the old man.
SPEAKER_07You've been there, you've been there, you've done this.
SPEAKER_06I've been tweeting slop. Um yeah, but I do agree. Um, I CT is a weird place. There's nothing, like, you're not gonna see anything if you're as if if you're as involved in the space as the three of us are, and I've put like I've put the time in and the energy into like forming relationships and a network in the space, like you're not gonna learn anything. You want CT first. Um so like if you're out there and you're like scrolling CT as your primary like thing, like my advice to you is make some friends, find people whose tweets you do like, DM them, become friendly with them, and then like you know, over time that relationship will turn into something that you'll probably get into group chats on Telegram or whatever. Um, form your own community and find like your crew um to find things and trade together. Um and now starting in a bear market is the best time to start that community.
SPEAKER_02That's what I was gonna say. That's that's like now's the time to do it because everyone, for the most part, like engagement is down across the board. If you reach out to someone, like during bull market, when things are hot, like they're probably not gonna respond to you. But like most of these, even these big accounts are not getting that much spam or engagement. And so if you just reach out to them, they're probably gonna respond to you, they'll probably engage. Like this time, this the bear market in 2022, I didn't know anybody, man. Like, I was like on the outside looking in. I knew who all the accounts were. I had been putting in the work, but like I didn't have any of the network. And I just knew a couple people. But when the bear market was slow and you hung around, I would reach out to people, you know, whether it's, hey, can I help out with anything? Hey, just wondering, you know, I have a question about this. Like, you gotta be careful about just like asking for stuff that that, you know, is an annoyance for them. But like I literally made all my connections during the bear market when everything was dull. And then you find yourself in the group chats that are that are popping off in the bull market. Those start with the people that hang around when nothing's going on. And they're mostly just shooting the shit, talking about nothing, like getting to know each other. That's really what's going on. Like, yeah, what ETB was probably gonna go down as somewhat of a legendary chat in both directions, good stuff and bad stuff. But like, dude, that wasn't like big names at the before the bull market hit, right? Like, that was it was just a butt, it was a ragtag group of people that like it was like you just you just basically added people to the chat that you liked, right?
SPEAKER_06Yeah, and then ruthlessly kicked out everybody and didn't.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, that's the thing in ETB. There was no one like with like a massive following or like massive crazy influence. It was literally just a bunch of degenerates, and it ended up being the one of the most profitable group chats probably of the cycle. Um, but that's all it's like.
SPEAKER_02Degenerates, but like they were people that put in the work during yeah, during that time too.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, 100%.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, yeah, definitely. You have to put in the work like the thing that people I think uh there's this guy, uh Ben McKenzie from the OC, who's like trotting around the world right now, promoting its book about how crypto is a big Ponzi scheme and fraud, which like, yeah, no shit. Like the goal is to be early to the Ponzi and then sell on everybody. But like if you're like I don't know why you say it's such a bad thing. Um if you but if but in all seriousness, like the people that are getting dumped on are the people that are fucking lazy and aren't doing their work and they're they're texting their mom, oh, I heard Alberts just pivoted to being a data company or whatever, and they're buying the top of Alberts, like, yeah, like that's always gonna exist as lazy people. But if you are like putting in time and effort and building community and network within crypto and grinding and trading daily, like I know people who have been nothing but profitable for the last six months in this space, yeah. And all they do is eat and breathe and sleep fucking cryptocurrency trading. That's all they do, and like that's a level of commitment. I think that is the one thing that's in common with everybody I know that has been hyper that's been super successful in this space is that they've done nothing but sacrificed their life to this shit. Um now, whether that is good for you mentally or not is a whole other discussion.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_06Because uh it can take a fucking toll on you know your body, your mind, your relationships, and everything, but like like anything else, like anyone who's successful at anything, like you have to give everything to it, in my opinion. Um, and that sounds so annoying and stupid to say and like fluffy, but it's true. It's true, it's true.
SPEAKER_07I like all of us have literally done that exact same process of literally just like not complaining in a bear market and just getting after it and just starting to do shit, and yeah, just turning up, and now here I am complaining in the bear market about um and situation. So, you know, maybe I haven't learned from uh previous cycles, but yeah, yeah. Uh I think general advice to people if you're still here and like if you're if you're still you've been plodding on this past like six months is like yeah, like you've you've done fucking well. Um you've done well. And I think I was saying this to someone who they were down, they were down 40% on their port, yeah. And they were saying to me, um they're probably listening to this like right now, actually. And it yeah, they were down 40% on their port and down quite a significant amount of money. There were seven figs. Um and I was like, I was telling him, like, you're actually in a really good spot and you don't even realize it. Um because you compare yourself to you're comparing yourself to some of the best traders in the space all the time. Um and some of these guys are up in the last six months, and they've been up for the last bit like in the bear market, like we just said. And I was like, you're comparing yourself to the top 0.0001% of this space, but the rest of this space is unironically on its fucking knees. Most people lost everything this past year. Like there's a lot of people, I would say honestly, but most CT accounts, 80% of CT accounts lost everything. And it's always the same way, it's always the same process in CT. But it's like if you just survive with 50% of your cash, you're in such a good spot because the market is in a place where you're it's sort of reverting, you know, it it gets to a point where it can only get better, and you're sitting on 50% of your cash, and it's like imagine if at the start of last bull market, imagine if you had the amount of cash you're sitting on right now, you know, you're gonna make a fortune. So it's literally just sometimes about waiting and being being grateful that you've got the amount you do now, comparing yourself to where you started at the start of the cycle and going, you know what? I can find I can deal with this, you know? This is okay.
SPEAKER_06Like so many of us started last cycle. I started last cycle with like four thousand dollars.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, bro. That's all I did.
SPEAKER_06Like if you told me I'd have the amount of money that I could start with today going into this, I'd be like, oh my god, like are you kidding me? Um and I think that's the mindset people need to have is like I didn't like if you didn't lose like the only thing like the thing everyone always says is just don't blow up. Stay in the fucking game. Because as long as you're in the game and you have a bankroll, like you can you can you can win. Um and if you're still here, then you've done that, and now it's maybe time to fucking win. Um or not, and we hit 83 80, what, 80 80 spot three? Is that your number, Sats? Yeah, 78-3? What was it? Yeah, uh it is uh 78.3 uh yeah, we we tapped it 7833, and now we are down. And stats did not have limit orders in to short.
SPEAKER_07No, I didn't. Yeah, I would be up 0.3% right now, guys. Be up 0.3, that would be a good cope, little cope, little cope play right now, but uh I would have got stopped out and been angry anyway. So you know what can you do?
SPEAKER_06I love it. Um did you guys see tether bail out drift and just mock USDC, by the way?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, yeah. What happened? That's a so so yeah, correct me if I'm wrong, Wood, but it was uh obviously the drift hack happened. What was it, 120 million? Um and obviously Circle is the biggest player on Solana. Uh Tether don't really get used much on Sol. Um everyone uses Circle. I use Circle, I probably all three of us do here. Um Tether came through and just said we're covering the we're covering the hack. Um and yeah, I mean, you know.
SPEAKER_06And as a result, they can only use Tether on their platform or something like that. It's like the one term of it. So basically Drift is one of the larger G5 products on Solana where Tether doesn't have a strong foothold. And Tether comes in and says, We'll bail you out. Here's money, but you have to only use our currency. And it's another strong move. Strong move makes Tether look good, makes Circle Circle just I mean, I feel like they just keep dropping the ball.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, they've been taking some L's. They've been taking some L's, and it's like it's it seems easy preventable. Like I with the hack shit as well, like with this the drift money as well, they didn't freeze the money, did they? They didn't freeze the money. I don't I I might be getting that wrong, but there's been a multiple cases where they've just been the slowest movers to react on freezing hacked money and uh intervening when it's time to intervene. And it's just becoming a bit of a pattern, and it's like this is such a simple thing to get right, but maybe I'm uh oversimplifying it. But you attract like a team of ten people on this to work around the clock and be alert at all times when there's big things that happen to act quickly, and they just don't seem to have that, and it's taking them days to react. So yeah, I don't know. Maybe it is time for Tether to sort of take control on Solana. Maybe I'm looking too far into it, but yeah, maybe I think it's we're all probably ingrained into our brains that we all use Circle as well. Like they're the default.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, the first mover advantage is so significant. We saw the same thing with Pump Fun, um, but at a larger scale, like you know, USDC is just what most people in the United States at least think about using. I'd say, yeah, I mean, it's uh a lot of that's there's a reputation that coin, you know, Coinbase and associated entities are just there's a there's a in an industry that's just filled and rife with like a lack of trust and credibility, they have that, right? Um, but it doesn't mean that they are good operators, it doesn't mean that they're really doing things right, they just have that reputation baked in right now, which is great for them, but um it seems they've made a lot of mistakes as well.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, yeah, I think tether for me, when I first started trading crypto, I don't know, years ago, like had just said this like smear campaign against it. And I just always there was always tether fun, right? And I was like, oh circle is just like US regulated company. I'm just gonna use that. Like they're it's not Coinbase, they're flipped with Coinbase, like this is the safest thing.
SPEAKER_07Um the Arabs love tether. The Arabs love it. The Middle East loves tether and they love T. I thought they love Tron. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, they love they love Tron and Tether. They don't like you you can say, oh I'll pay you in USDC. They're like, nah, Tron and Tether, bro.
SPEAKER_02Like well, yeah, it's Tron is Tron is it's USDT is is the sp the stable coin that's used.
SPEAKER_0799%, right? Exactly, yeah. So there it seems to be just a massive divide as well, there is like I don't know how it is in Europe as well. Um like I don't know if tether is big in like Central Europe, but I think they must be, you know, they're fucking printing cash, so they've got to be big somewhere. Um tough one.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, well, um it's it's good for the Solana um ecosystem.
SPEAKER_07It's very good. Like, thank goodness. Does anyone use drift? Does still anyone use it? I don't know.
SPEAKER_06I was telling you guys a few episodes when the hack happened that one of my seed investments um uh sent a message out saying that they had no exposure to the drift attack and that it's like a DeFi protocol. Yeah and then and then 30 minutes later said half of our money was in drift and gone.
SPEAKER_01Oh god.
SPEAKER_06So funny. They they there's a this guy at the founder sends a message saying everything's good, no worries. 30 minutes later, they put a tweet out, and that tweet could share in the chat, like, dude, you just said we had no exposure. What the fuck?
SPEAKER_02I feel like that's I am curious. I wonder, I don't know if you guys know where we can find that, but uh I pulled that up, but like pre pre-hack, I'm curious like how how many people use drift? Like how much how much uh how much money was on the platform? Because I think they had some. I haven't even thought, you know, when I'm thinking about where to trade, like it doesn't even no shade at all, but like it literally doesn't even cross my mind to use drift, you know. I don't think you're alone there as well.
SPEAKER_07Everyone, everyone thinks that and I've been a Solana guy too, but I just didn't even cross my mind. No, I think they had some good yield pools on there, and it's people farming the yield. I think they had like probably five or six percent on some of the USDC or USDT or whatever it was, um, pulls on there. So I think it's people trying to squeeze out that last percentage wherever they can who got caught. But then, like, yeah, if you keep size on drift, I mean I I don't know what to tell you, man. Like, I really don't want to tell you. And once again, it's a lot of people. Yeah, no, quite literally. You're keeping size on drift and then it gets exploited, it's like fucking hell. Like, tough shit. But maybe some people will tell me the same, like, I imagine if something happens to hyperliquid and my whole HLP position gets fucking destroyed, then everyone will be like, oh, you shouldn't have done that. And I'll be like, Yeah, you're probably right. You're probably fucking right, but here we are. Um that does worry me a little bit. I was actually thinking about that the other day. Um I making a little bit of a bold move, keeping a decent percentage of my portfolio in HLP. Maybe. Oh, the vault. I mean I've been a big HLP guy for a long time. A long time.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, it's been an attack factor. They've people have tried.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, I mean, people have tried, it's proven resilient. Um, I mean, anyone will tell you SATS as uh from uh from as as an old guy who likes to practice some uh risk management. Maybe don't put everything in it.
SPEAKER_07No.
SPEAKER_06Yeah. Just maybe like 20%. Anything above that.
SPEAKER_07About 35%.
SPEAKER_06I think you're uh I think you're I think you're you're you're you're at the cusp of maybe being irresponsible, but not quite the border encroaching on it. You're incredibly.
SPEAKER_02I thought Sats was about to say he uses it as his as his savings account in the bank. I think he might take a little bit out of the vault.
SPEAKER_07I did that on FTX. I think I told the story before. Like we did. We know, we know. Exactly. That's why I'm saying get paid for my job, and I'll be like, FTX, straight to FTX. So yeah, no, I I don't do that anymore. I don't do that, but it's about 35% HLP. Um you know, sometimes, sometimes I'm there late at night going, you know, is that a good decision?
SPEAKER_02Like, I kind of know I kind of know it's wrong, but dude, I think that's your answer right there. If you were literally up at night, like, hey, uh, should I be doing this? Yeah, maybe maybe de-risk a little bit. Who am I to talk about de-risking though? I'm just an oak.
SPEAKER_06So just an oak, just an oc. We're all just fucking unks.
SPEAKER_07Um I don't know if we have this in the show notes. I like my fucking Google Chrome isn't uh or my docs aren't opening, but did you guys see uh the new Opus uh from Claude? Opus 4.7. Yeah, do you have you activated yet? I have, I've been blasting it uh quite a lot. Uh noticeable improvements, I think. Um it felt like the past two weeks, I don't know if they I think they probably do this on purpose because it makes sense, but I think they sort of degrade performance um of the previous models before they release the next one. So when the next one comes out, they just put it back to what it already is at with some extra features, and then you're like, fuck me, this is amazing. But it just feels like it feels better, don't get me wrong, but like it's nothing like fucking groundbreaking stuff here. And the UI feels the UI feels a little horrible, I can't lie. But I didn't know this until the other day. The UI changed materially, yeah. The the UI changed um quite a lot, and it feels a little bit feels a little bit clunky. Um doesn't feel great. I've seen a lot of the same feedback on Twitter towards them. But I didn't know they vibe code everything internally, as well as everything in-house that's insane. Absolutely insane. Um yeah, and but I can tell that the UI feels vibe coded uh right now. Before it didn't, but yeah, I would say right now the the UI does feel a little vibe coded. But yeah, I thought that was absolutely insane. It shows how far this has come.
SPEAKER_02Like, does it feel a little bit to you guys like? I mean, I don't know. Um it's it's hard to say this, but like it feels like we're sort of fast approaching. Remember like how crazy each iPhone release used to be, and there was like insane changes to each one, and it was you know materially different. And then at a certain point, there started to be all these new iPhone releases, uh, and it's like they were basically like, oh, the camera's a little better or whatever, but it's like it's kind of the same thing. And then the and then as soon as the new one came out, the old one would battery life would just die.
SPEAKER_04Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Uh are we hitting that like diminishing returns point of some of these LLM releases where they're like, wait, we know these other guys are gonna release something, so we need a new model coming out. Uh it's not gonna be that much different, but we gotta keep the the circuit going. Yeah, the will.
SPEAKER_07I think I think perhaps, but it's like we still haven't reached that point of. I know everyone, I hate even saying it, we haven't reached that point of AGI. Um, and I think that's the point where everything changes really. Because right now, Claude, um, as a as a service and what when you're coding, especially, it's about 75 to 80 percent of what a software engineer, like a trained software engineer who works at a fan company can do. Until we're above that, I think it still makes sense to, yes, they're minor changes to maybe the average user, but the more advanced user who's using it to code at a decently sized company or using it to run a company to do these sort of tasks, it makes a difference. But I think to the average end user, they won't even notice these changes at all. But I can I can definitely say UI, like creating UIs and creating websites is definitely changed a lot. Uh, it's got a way better at that. But on the coding side, it feels, yeah, feels very minor.
SPEAKER_02Last thing on this, uh, we don't have to go on about it, but you know what's was a little demoralizing about this one? It just feels like a little bit of a um like just like a flex by Anthropic, is like basically there was all this shit that came out about mythos and how insane like mythos is. This, you know, their their craziest model, like it's doing all this stuff, it's finding vulnerabilities and old software and all this stuff. And then they're like, okay, we have a release, but it's Opus 4.7. You guys don't get mythos. Like, we have that, it exists, but you but you as the customer, no, no, no, no. You guys can just have the 4.6 or the 4.7, and we're gonna hold the powerful shit back for ourselves here.
SPEAKER_07But in the announcement, they they they even put the mythos stats on the right, uh, to compare like what it would be like to mythos, which no one has access to yet. Um but yeah, it's like I don't know, I don't know when they I think they postponed the IPO for that as well, didn't they? They want to release that uh before the IPO and obviously fucking bounce up their valuation. Uh but it's I don't know, man. Is it gonna be as good as they say, or is it just a massive marketing thing? Perhaps. I I saw Trump has switched his stance on anthropic completely now. Um, yeah, no, he now think they were a national security threat about a month ago. Now they're complete. These guys are the best. These guys are the best.
SPEAKER_02So we probably just probably got his internal deal done, right?
SPEAKER_07Part of the deal. Yeah, they've probably got his internal deal done. The Trump family are now in, and yeah, it's time to get bullish anthropic for them guys. Um crazy, crazy reality. Uh I don't know. Did anything else a crazy, crazy switch up from me here, but did anything else come out about the world of liberty finance stuff?
SPEAKER_06No, I haven't seen anything. I I mean, yeah, they did they came out there at like a two-year vesting period for the remaining 80% of all investors' numbers. Uh investors uh oh, that was great.
SPEAKER_02I tweeted about this. Um, yeah, they they the timeline is crazy, right? Is it actually outrageous? Just a pulse. Yes, no, it's really outrageous.
SPEAKER_07Um I'll send Henry my tweet about it.
SPEAKER_02Um, early supporters.
SPEAKER_07This is a bad one, man.
SPEAKER_02Um for early supporters, the locked early supporter tokens move to a two-year cliff followed by a two-year linear four years? So sorry, is that stuck? That might be starting now, too. Yeah, I think two year cliff. Oh, okay. You guys made us think you want your you want your tokens unlocked. Sounds good. Four years. Two years we'll start the we'll start the slow drip.
SPEAKER_07This is insane, man. This is insane. Every every opportunity they take to take a like a thing like this, they do. And yeah, I just it's unbelievable. Wait, Henry, pull up my tweet. Pull up my tweet. That's a good one. That's a good one. It is just uh it's true though, man. I imagine be in this position, you got unrealized gains, you can't even touch, locked away, and then they're like four-year vest. Good luck.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, but most people at least probably just sold their 20% when it unlocked and made 20x on it, and they're just like, whatever. It's fine.
SPEAKER_02That's true. That's that's that's the other side of that.
SPEAKER_06I don't feel bad for these WLFI guys, I feel bad for the other idiots who got fucked longing WLFI.
SPEAKER_02But both things can be true. You can we can have no sympathy for people who hold uh World Liberty Financial tokens, and we can still say this is obscene, right? Like, you know, what happens to USD one after this inevitably?
SPEAKER_07I feel like the whole world liberty finance stuff is is it's inevitable that like it's gonna it's gonna come under a lot of scrutiny, um, especially when Trump is out of office and even in the midterms and everything like that. What happens to things like USDT? Like, where does that or USDT USD one? Like, I feel like they went hard on Binance. They didn't really, they've sort of an ignored soul. Um like I don't know where that leaves them as a whole.
SPEAKER_06Like, it will be relevant until the Trump family is no longer in office or has any sway over politics, and when that is over, it will be obsolete and go to zero.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. Look, man, every single industry, every bubble, there's a bunch of people that jump in as opportunists, and then like the real one or two real winners will emerge or or the whole thing won't happen, and then those others will leave. And it's like this is USD-1 could not more clearly be just opportunists who are able to rally around basically having a voice here, and they're I don't know how much they care in a couple of years.
SPEAKER_06Nobody, nobody in crypto respects them. Yeah, let's be clear um about that. No one fucking uses it um unless you're trading in the bunk trenches.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Everyone knows the end game with that, and yet they will probably succeed. Um, I don't know who these other dudes are, the non-Trumps involved and how they position themselves for this, but they'll walk away pretty wealthy, probably need no repercussions. But uh I don't think anyone does serious business with those guys ever again, probably.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, that's the thing, man. Like you go into office or like you like, you know, you become whatever with the Trump family, and your reputation is pretty much damaged indefinitely.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, it seems people forget though, no? Like it just seems people just like they're like you do all this sketchy shit, especially in crypto. I feel like people do this crazy sketchy shit, and then they come back, they they go dark for three months and they come back and just start tweeting like everything's normal.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, they do, but no one ever trusts you again, right? I think like all you have in this space is your fucking reputation and trustworthiness. And if you throw that away, like it's gone forever to some degree.
SPEAKER_02Like you those guys are the one cyclers. There's like a rare that you could probably count on one hand. The people who have done really fucked up shit and blatantly scammed, and then they just are able to come back the next cycle and magically everyone forgives them and they do it again. There's probably five to ten of those people in the crypto space who somehow get a free pass and just do it over and over again. We all know who those guys are. Uh, most of the people they're one hit wonders, they're out and no one no one will engage with them again.
SPEAKER_06As it should be, which is the right thing. Um on that note, let's wrap it up here, boys. Um, hang on.
SPEAKER_02I got one thing I want us to end on, would we gotta play the we gotta play the Jeffrey Jeffrey Aston video? All right, give us two more minutes here. This is worth this is worth your Friday afternoon episode. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I forgot about this, I promise.
SPEAKER_03There are many, many uh figures in our society who contribute an enormous amount to our culture and people who have unconventional personal lives. Um and and yet they seemed exempt from criticism, you know, uh Jeffrey Epstein. Jeffrey Epstein, I see it.
SPEAKER_04No one, no one, you know, uh uh uh criticizes him and yet it's a double Jeff Much has been said, much has been said about Jeffrey Epstein. Terrible things.
SPEAKER_03Jeff I'm talking about Jeff Epstein, the New York financier.
SPEAKER_04Yes, we're talking about the same Jeff Epstein. No, yes, no, yes.
SPEAKER_03I what I never I never heard.
SPEAKER_04Oh, it was a big story in the news. Huge no, yes, for you to say no one ever took Jeff Epstein. Yes, Jeff Epstein, yes, the financier of the island. He had an island that I've never been to. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03I I'm pretty sure, with respect, if there was some news about Jeff Epstein, I would have heard.
SPEAKER_04Oh no, I don't know where you what rock you've been under. It was a huge story, and I have to Jeff Epstein is I have to tell you, he's gone. He's dead. He's dead.
SPEAKER_03He's dead, he's dead. Sorry, nice try. If Jeff, if Jeff Epstein, if Jeff Epstein were deceased, I'm pretty sure I would know about it. Now, I admit I've not, probably since the pandemic, I have not talked to him. That would make sense.
SPEAKER_04That would make sense. I uh for a number of years. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03I'll tell you there's one easy way. Let's call Jelaine Maxwell.
SPEAKER_04No, we're not calling Jelaine Maxwell.
SPEAKER_03Why not?
SPEAKER_04Oh, she's in prison. She's imprisoned for crimes she committed with Jeff Epstein. Jelaine's in prison. Yes, stop calling her Jelaine! How do you know these people?
unknownJim.
SPEAKER_03Jim. Jim, listen. Okay. I'm just saying, I don't I'm your friend. You you know what it doesn't matter what you do in your private.
SPEAKER_04I don't do anything in my private life.
SPEAKER_03Okay.
SPEAKER_07Bro, that has to be a bit.
SPEAKER_01This can't be real, dude. It's real. It's real. It was real. Oh my god. This was a while ago. It was real. Oh my fucking god. Let's call Ghallane. Let's call Ghalaine.
SPEAKER_07Let's call Ghulane. No, let's not call Galen. Oh man, Jesus. Bro, it's been living under a rock. Fucking hell.
SPEAKER_06Oh my god. Great finisher. Great finisher. That's incredible. Oh my god. Well, alright. Um, before we end off, up or down Tuesday, Sats. For your sanity, you need down.
SPEAKER_07We're the fry it's the Friday rally rallying into the Illiquid Weekend. We all know how this ends, guys. It's down, it's down on the weekend. Crack your shorts. Um yeah. I I don't see us higher than 78.3 come Monday. Well, you said Tuesday.
SPEAKER_05Are we a holiday? No, Tuesday. We chat on Tuesdays.
SPEAKER_02Oh, oh, sorry. I thought you were saying market open Monday. Okay, Tuesday. Yeah, we're down by Tuesday. I I'm gonna say higher. I'm going higher.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_02Swizzle.
SPEAKER_06Bullish. Bullish. As long as Sats a bear, I'm a bull.
SPEAKER_07That's that's my stance.
SPEAKER_06Well, as soon as I'm bearish on the I'm bullish until Sats is bearish.
SPEAKER_07Guys, we've already retraced the percentage. Don't want to be that guy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Oh my god. I'm bearish once Sats buys at 83k. Yeah, then we sell.
SPEAKER_06Then we sell. Oh my god. That's I think I can't believe you didn't have a fucking short open.
SPEAKER_07I know, I know. It literally tagged 78.3 on the fucking dot, folks.
SPEAKER_06You called it on air and then didn't act on it.
SPEAKER_07I love it. Yeah, you know, but at least I'd rather be right than make money.
SPEAKER_02We'll see what happens though. Trump very easily retracts everything. He said Rand comes out and says, We have no idea what this guy was talking about. We'll find out. We'll see. But then but then comes Sunday night, it gets fixed. So yeah, yeah, yeah. Basically, just enjoy your weekend, guys. Yeah. Enjoy your weekend.
SPEAKER_06Go outside, touch grass. Uh, don't trade all weekend. But if you do trade all weekend, do it on FOMO and use promo code RESTCON. And uh, we'll be back Tuesday. Thanks, guys. Good stuff, folks.