Risk On Podcast

DeFi Disaster | EP 57

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0:00 | 54:25

Covering:

- BTC nukes over the weekend
- AAVE / WETH still frozen
- Asteroid on a tear

And more.

SPEAKER_02

Welcome to Risk On, episode 57, uh brought to you by FOMO. Best multi-chain trading experience out there. Go download it today. Promo code RiskON for 10% something off your trading fees. Go get there today. Go join me. I joined the trenches back again last week famously. I said I onboarded some money to buy lighter, which I said I wouldn't buy. And then I took that lighter money, which I sold before the nuke, and then lost a bunch of it gambling on shitters this weekend.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, how are you feeling about that, Wood? I I think you might have said that you were gonna regret it. It seems that you do.

SPEAKER_02

I already regret it. Um I bought I said that I put a bottom in on Unk, and the Unks heard me put a bottom in on Unk and said this is my exit liquidity. Um, I I used to, I I used to be the guy out there, you know, selling on people. That used to be me. How about the now I'm tables have turned, I'm the washed up old guy who people say, Oh, wood bot, sold, sell. Time to get out. Wood candles, sell. Time to get out. Wood's a counter signal now. You know, you you spend enough time around here. You kind of lose your juice, I think.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, you you live long enough to become the exit liquidity. Um they steal your hard-earned beans, what you earned in the market, um in one pocket, out of the other. Some things don't change. Is the unk the only thing you bought?

SPEAKER_02

Uh no, I bought it. I I did make money trading some stuff.

SPEAKER_04

Uh and you didn't buy Astro Asteroid. I you know, I hate to bring this up so early into the show, but we got a sidelined asteroid guy here.

SPEAKER_02

Uh I mean, so asteroid was scanned. I saw we I mean I I fell asleep. Asteroid got scanned at five sub a milli in Ding in uh in Ding Slayer in our chat we're all in. Um and I fell asleep. I'm old. Because this happened at like 12 o'clock at night, I think. And I was sleeping. And I missed and then.

SPEAKER_01

But let's but let's be honest. Even if we all of us could have seen it when it first came out, none of us were buying that shit.

SPEAKER_02

Fully disagree, actually. I had money on on mainnet for the first time in forever. I've had money on mainnet for like two weeks now because I'm I'm in some other mainnet Ponzi token that I own way too much of now. Um, but I think it's gonna do well. Um I had money on mainnet, so I would have ripped into it.

SPEAKER_04

I saw it when it was scanned, and I was just like, nah, I can't even be bothered to buy it. Um didn't buy it. And you know, I don't even feel, I don't even feel like, you know, that feeling of like, oh, like I did I could have bought it at this price, so I'm not gonna buy that. I just don't even feel that anymore because I know I'm not gonna buy them tickets that low. So like I'm just happy with buying higher and confident it sounds egotistical, but like I'm gonna make more than the guys who were buying at that price uh to a certain level because of the size I'm buying suburb, like like above a hundred mil.

SPEAKER_01

That said, I don't what got into us, Sats, because you and I both we're just we've just been done. We just have no interest for at least a month, two months, go like no interest in anything, see price go up, stop caring. But something happened here where we were both like, man, I'm gonna throw some size into this. Like, yeah, like a throwback, like we need to put size into this.

SPEAKER_04

I don't know why. I don't know why. I I really don't know why. I think I I think I gave Swizzle a bit of FOMO because I was like, I'm sizing in at 130 mil.

SPEAKER_01

Like I think I saw something about like Sats was doing, I was like, wait a second, this guy is totally retired, but he's he's blasting into this thing, and I was like, I don't even know, I don't even really know what the meme is. I don't I'm I still don't really know what what it is, but I felt like I had to have some exposure, man.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, neither do I.

SPEAKER_04

And it's it's one of them things, it's like I know it gets said a lot on across CT, but it's like it's one of them narratives that comes along, and I I was listening to a Jack Doval space. You guys probably don't even know who he is, but Natalie. We don't know who that is. We don't know who that is.

SPEAKER_01

I'm imagining uh what's what's the rapper, the white rapper uh uh Jack Harlow? I'm imagining Jack Amazon. Does he look like Amazon?

SPEAKER_04

Does he look like Jack Harlow? Yeah, he looks a bit like Jack Harlow. Uh he looks a bit like Jack Harlow, and uh he buys he buys meme coins on Solana, and I heard him say something on the space, he was like, you know, this is one of the narratives that comes around every five years. And I was I heard that and I was like, you know what, Jack? You're fucking right.

SPEAKER_03

You're right every five years, he said.

SPEAKER_01

But we have five years. You can you can go on Twitter every day and find a narrative that only comes along every five years. So what was different?

SPEAKER_03

I you know what?

SPEAKER_01

Meme coin Jack Harlow shielded you, and you got in the case.

SPEAKER_04

Meme coin, and and you know what the the the story doesn't even then that meme coin Jack Harlow is the lead the lead CTO member of the Solana asteroid, which went to zero. So he wasn't even talking about the ETH one, he was talking about the Solana one, and I heard I heard him say that, and I was like, What this seems like extreme cope, extreme cope. I'm buying the ETH one with size.

SPEAKER_01

Um let's let's back up for a second, by the way. What is the meme? Let's just because uh you know, for anyone that doesn't know, I'll raise my hand. I I kind of know, but like, why is the why is this and why are we talking about meme coins again?

SPEAKER_02

This is the guy that Sabbath was listening to and said, I gotta buy this meme. You were like from so my body was this your conviction came from this guy.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, this guy's a good guy, I gotta be honest.

SPEAKER_04

He's uh he tries he tries a lot of things, he says a lot of words, but he's a funny guy, man. He's like there's a telegram sticker pack. I use them all the time of like of uh his face edited onto different things. You guys would have known it straight away. But this is the guy, bro. This is Jack. Um great guy, gotta be honest, great guy. Uh, did get did get this wrong with the with the CTO. But um, yeah, just a little bit. It was it was bold, it was really bold of him. I think you know, he I don't think he's been around for ages. Um and he's you know, he's learnt his lesson, I think. I don't think he'll ever do another CTO. Uh I think he's he's fully learned that. That's a bad idea, a real bad idea. Um but on the meme, so what it is is what I what my understanding of it is, because you know I don't do a lot of research historically. Um so I think someone's someone's daughter tragically passed away, and she wrote a note to Elon or something along the line saying she wanted this to be the mascot of SpaceX and be one of the first things to go to space um and be on Mars or something like that. Um and then yeah, it kind of picked up from there. Elon said yes, like he's fully, fully down to do it on Twitter, and then here we are. Like that's literally as simple as it is.

SPEAKER_01

Um wait, Elon's sending her to space?

SPEAKER_04

No, no, no.

SPEAKER_01

She's got like she's tragically passed away. Oh, okay. My bad, my bad, my bad. I I misinterpreted that.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, that's that's anything that's ending that Teddy. What she wanted to go to space, uh, to space.

SPEAKER_04

That's what's going on here. But yeah, uh, that's my that's my understanding of it. I could be wrong as well, but that seems like a great narrative. What the mascot of SpaceX um go into space, and it like it seems to be heavily reported on, and Elon's the type of guy who sticks with his word. So there's a lot of catalysts coming up for it. I hope, you know, what I'm making up. Yeah, we have two scenarios.

SPEAKER_01

Either we bought not the top, but we we bought at the most hype moment, and this is just gonna fizzle out and never be talked about again. 90% chance, 80% chance that happens. I don't know. Yeah, but the 10% chance, the 10% chance, whatever you think it is, this shit is gonna literally go to the moon. The mascot is going to the moon, and and stats and I had a revelation and we top blasted. And yeah, and we're gonna get rich from it.

SPEAKER_02

Scenario where you buy like within 15% of the top and it goes up like 15%, and you're like, fuck yeah, I'm up, and then you just get absolutely. No, that's basically exactly what has happened so far.

SPEAKER_03

That's what Asby in the group chat. Yeah, as we in the group chat goes, bro, we're up. We're eating right now. I checked up.

SPEAKER_01

That's not instead of DMing each other last night. Sats and I went to shit talking in the group chat right here with Wood just to rip on Inverbean's sideline. We were up maybe 15 to 20% max. And by the time I woke up this morning, that had retraced and I'm basically back to even. So we're on thin ice, but just something feels good here. I don't know.

SPEAKER_02

Guys, I have no FOMO about not being in this bag. I do have FOMO over like Print and Play-Doh, who are all up seven figs each on this thing. Uh I have FOMO over them, but I have no FOMO over who are top blasting size into Asteroid Shiba. Like just wait, look. Asteroid Shiba? This is like the GameStop mascot token.

SPEAKER_04

This is like You're gonna feel FOMO soon, bro. When it's at a bill and meme swizzle are knee sliding in the group tax.

SPEAKER_02

If this goes to a billion, I do not understand meme coins in this trading game whatsoever. Bro, my three years of my life have been a waste.

SPEAKER_04

My thing right here is it either goes to a billion or I sell for a 50% loss. No in between. No in between. You're not you're not gonna adjust there.

SPEAKER_01

This is this is you know what this is like, Wood? This is when stats was like, no matter what, I don't care, I'll write it to zero. I'm holding XPL for three years. I'm holding plasma for three years. I there's nothing needs to change my mind.

SPEAKER_04

I think I don't think it had a single red day since or a single green day since I I muttered them words, um, and it just plummeted straight to zero. Hopefully, we don't follow the same uh thing with Asteroid, but look, 70 mil, 70 mil, I'm done. Hopefully the the the future MMs aren't listening and they go, fuck this guy. This guy's fun. Stop this guy.

SPEAKER_03

This guy's fun.

SPEAKER_02

But I chart that 70 million is the most disgustingly gross-looking chart I can ever imagine.

SPEAKER_01

And I'm gonna go to the back of the couple of things. Well, you're talking you're talking about a thing that has that has not yet happened. It could very well be. No, I'm just saying, if it happens, it would be ugly. If it happens, it would be like that.

SPEAKER_02

It would be really ugly.

SPEAKER_04

If it goes to 70 mil, I put the final nail in the coffin when it goes to That's a Swizzle nose.

SPEAKER_02

You know how many times I've I've I've I've had Swizzle say to me, Fuck, I was the capitulation candle on this. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

You were the you were because I'm the guy that holds out, like I I'm like, I hang on to the thesis. I'm like, I I believe in this man, I believe. And then and then it just looks so gross that I'm like, I gotta get out of here. And that's that's the capitulation wake. Do you still hold Copperino? I do, I do. Oh my god. I haven't even opened my FOMO account in over a month because I can't bear to look. I'll do it for you.

SPEAKER_02

I'm gonna I'm gonna air out. Alright, so I'm gonna tell my how bad I'm down on stream right now on my FOMO account. This is fun. Um let's see, that's a really gross number. Because there was a guy named Zink who we're buddies with who was complaining about being down like a little bit of money recently. I think he was down 300k now. Yeah, dude, my my FOMO all time is down $470,000.

SPEAKER_01

Swizzle. Mine's actually worried, but it's a lot of this is do we speak the word? Do we say the word?

SPEAKER_02

Do not speak the word, but you tell something specific. Yeah, I I I I'm 50% that one token and 50% everything else. So I'm just I'm pretty bad. Swizzle, you're 30 days down 70 bands. I don't even I can't see your all time.

SPEAKER_01

You know what's crazy too is like, oh shit. Yeah. I only hold one token, I'm pretty sure. So it's a little volatile over there. FOMO. It will bounce back, it will come back. Guys, that's one of those ones I'm gonna check back in 2027 and we'll see.

SPEAKER_02

You know what the best part about being down so badly in 2026 for me is that I've been resetting my cost basis on all of my equities, which are up a gajillion percent. It's been lovely.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, so that is the crypto man equivalent of girl math right there. Like it's been really nice. I can offset some of these gains. I've obviously not could have just not lost the money and then you know paid taxes on a higher amount of gains, but no, it's nice to offset the gains.

unknown

Here we are.

SPEAKER_02

Um, prices, you know, over the weekend, SATS said we'd be down over the weekend. We were down because Trump like reverse tacoed. Yeah, he tacoed and then he untacoed, and then we nuked, straight-own moves got closed. Equity still went up tremendously, but crypto took a took a hit, but we're about the same price as we were on Friday, I think. Yeah, um, are just going to zero though.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, there's just no bid. There is no bid. It's just like it's it's like what I said at the um on last pod. I just feel like with alts especially, I think Bitcoin uh is different. Maybe Solana and ETH are different as well on hype, but they're the only four. But the rest is like there's just better things to risk your money on right now. It feels like there's more attractive things to gamble on for big money. And whether that's private deals and AI, I feel like that's what's going on right now. There's a lot of private deals in AI going on, and the money's just fucking sinking into these things. Um and not our old bags anymore because the people got like people got absolutely washed here. Um it will come back eventually, like we all said in the on the last pod, like money travels down further down the risk curve and it ends up in our bags, and then you know, ideally that our bags go up 5x and we sell. Um it usually doesn't happen, but that's the uh that's the gamble. But yeah, on last stream as well, I I literally said 78.3 and that was the pick o top.

SPEAKER_02

Um you didn't short it then, did you?

SPEAKER_04

No, didn't short, so all I've got is the participation medal, no money. Um dragging rights, dragging rights. The bragging rights, yeah. However, did buy asteroids, so there you go. Have you guys seen You're not up on asteroid? No, you know what? I'm up 5% Big Win.

SPEAKER_01

Have you guys seen like people have been buying on Solana, they've been buying whatever this liquid approximation token is for anthropic, like uh they're basically paying. I I don't really understand how it works because it's it's not it's it's like a proxy for the private valuation, but you have to buy it. My understanding is like people are buying it at like a 30% premium just to get exposure, uh, because those are like sh I don't really know what's like what is like creating the like what are you getting when you buy those anthropic shares? I guess people are putting them up on secondary and then you pay a premium to get access to them liquid on chain, something like that.

SPEAKER_04

I I I don't even think that's how it works. I think it's just a make-believe thing, you know.

SPEAKER_01

No, no, no. I think it's I think it is related to secondary shares that are for sale. Okay, but because they don't actually have them, it's like people who aren't supposed to really be selling them, so there's some premium. That said, everyone who's been buying on chain, like like 80 per 85% of people have been buying on chain are up on their positions, and it's just been rocketing. It's just been skyrocketing.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, I don't know how liquid it is. I did see someone's up 1.5 mil on this though. But I once again, I don't know how liquid it is.

SPEAKER_01

So over the weekend, that person, uh, it was at least someone was up unrealized, like three million dollars on it.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Uh 2.8. I think uh trying to find it.

SPEAKER_04

I mean, where's the where's the other side of the pool here? Like this this is what doesn't really make sense to me. Um like who are you selling into, you know? Who's your exit equity here?

SPEAKER_02

That's I'm sure it's a I'm sure it's a special purpose vehicle of some sort that raised capital for this specific purpose. Yeah. Who who who who pulled together shares from people to like market make it in some something I don't understand.

SPEAKER_04

Um I did see uh I you know I saw this on LinkedIn, funnily enough. Don't ask. I was fucking having a scroll. I opened it up and I'm gonna go.

SPEAKER_02

Are you on your LinkedIn arc?

SPEAKER_04

No, I I just I hadn't opened it in so fucking long. And uh I I saw one of the notifications uh in my email of one of my friends from like way back in the day getting a new job, and I was like, ah, let's go see what he's up to. Like, I like this guy. I opened up LinkedIn and I see some guy trying to offload his house in exchange for anthropic shares. Um like he's actively trying to sell his house for anthropic shares. Uh that was his whole thing, and it blew up on LinkedIn. Big story there. Um but yeah, it is it's getting crazy, you know. It's getting fucking crazy. 1.7 trillion.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, so Gum uh tweeted Gum Shoe, Gum says, whatever his name is. Uh he said Anthropic is now priced at a $1.7 trillion valuation. People are paying an 81% premium just to get access to it on Solana. The top holder on-chain is up $2.6 million. Um this was on April the 18th. So four days ago, this was over the weekend, just before the weekend.

SPEAKER_04

This is also on hype as well, isn't it? This is also on Trade XYZ, no?

SPEAKER_01

Um yes, I believe so.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, so I I just I wonder what volume this does, because obviously your volume is the way you're gonna get out of these sort of things. I I can imagine. Um let me see, anthropic.

SPEAKER_01

Personally, would you guys buy this approxim uh you know, this like on-chain representation of I will never buy anything at $1.7 trillion. No, no, no, no. Forget the price. I'm saying, would you buy like in in ambiguously affiliated secondary shares of a private company token? 100%.

SPEAKER_02

You would I will get I Swizzle, we make a living gambling on internet pictures.

SPEAKER_01

Made past tense, made past tense.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, yeah, very true past tense. But I would, I would, fuck it, but not at 1.7 trillion. Uh I think yeah, that valuation's just it's crazy, but honestly, it is crazy, but it kind of makes sense. Um we're seeing how how how their updates change markets, you know. We still we saw what they've done to Figma, and I gotta say, Claude Design fucking sucks. And Figma went down what 20% on that news? And Claude Design sucks. So I don't know, man. What happened to the thing?

SPEAKER_01

There was more to that, it turned out. There was uh a key figure of the board stepped down or resigned or something, and that happened to it happened to occur on the same day. So I think there was a little bit of Twitter um sensationalism about oh, this Claude feature dropped and immediately like Figma went down. I I think it was part of it, it might have been a small part of it, but I think it was more about everything that happened with you know, there's some drama going on at Figma as well. Um but it definitely played into the narrative of they keep dropping features at very convenient times.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, they do, they do. It also feels like it's just like one blow after another for Figma at the moment. Like I feel like ever since IPO, they've just been on this crazy downturn, like where nothing seems to be going right, and like they can't put a foot right. Like the IPO was such a hyped thing as well, and it just feels like it's um just fallen off a cliff.

SPEAKER_02

This tweet had me fucking rolling the picture of uh the anthropic CEO saying, Sir, another 22-year-old has found a job. They're just running around wrecking young children's lives. Yeah. Like imagine being SATS age. And being a new busy.

SPEAKER_01

I mean, SAT is thriving. Sats is thriving.

SPEAKER_04

I I think it's an interesting conversation. You know, I was I was having this with someone else the other day, and it was like I don't think the software engineers of today are completely fucked. Um I think they're gonna be fine, but it's the it's the guys who lack the creativity who are fucked. Um which is a lot of percentage of the population nowadays that they just want to you know do one thing and uh do it on repeat and not really have to think about anything else. But I don't think a lot of these guys are fucked. I don't think designers are fucked, I don't think software engineers are fucked, I just think they need to apply themselves into a different thing and stop trying to fight against it and all just move with it. It's the guys who keep on pressing against AI, and it's like you see these guys I I see a lot of people on like the tech side of Twitter, like I have another Twitter account that just focused on tech and uh in the in in the coding space and things like that, and you see a lot of uh software engineers sort of saying, like, oh I I don't use AI because it feels wrong, it feels like uh it's not the way, like it doesn't feel authentic. It's like shut up, man. What do you want they're talking about being authentic? Just get on Claud Code and stop being a donkey because you're like you're gonna just fade away into the fucking you're gonna fade away into the abyss because there's people like me just talking English to the prompt and outperforming you. So I don't know, man. I don't know. I don't think it's as bad as people say that, you know.

SPEAKER_02

I we did a call yesterday with um some uh uh AI founders, and you guys were all speaking a language I do not understand. It was like me looking at you guys talking and just being like ex like a whole bunch like you would go. And say like seven straight words, and I'd be like, I don't know what any of that meant, let alone together in a sentence. I don't even know the fucking individual word.

SPEAKER_01

Um you did not mask it on your face either. You were very you wanted us to know that we sounded like absolutely insane.

SPEAKER_02

Sounded insane. I was like, I don't know what you're talking about. But I think about like my friends that have younger siblings, like my younger siblings, and like being, I don't know, like not growing up with this. It's kind of like my generation, I guess. Like we didn't have smartphones really when I was I'm not that old, but like my I got my first smartphone when I was like 21, 22, probably.

SPEAKER_04

That's crazy.

SPEAKER_02

And it's crazy, right? I didn't know yeah. I mean, it's actually cool because I get to like experience college and after college without it, which I think is special and um seems like a maybe a bummer for those who don't get to do it that way. Um but like you know, I was behind the curve from kids a little younger than me who grew up with that stuff. Um, and so I I'm curious, you know, if you're 18 to 28, probably right now, and you don't have an established career or whatever specialty, like you're kind of facing a steep hill up, I think.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Um and like what are you gonna do as a 22-year-old who's a finance major trying to get an entry-level job?

SPEAKER_01

I think here's the thing: like, I feel like there's different iterations of this. You go through history, there's always reasons for the young generation needs to be scared, like why things aren't gonna be the same for them, whatever. You know, it could be Medicare, it could be uh AI now. I I think to me, like if you're young, you're fine because you're going to adapt and you're gonna learn how stuff works here because that's you don't have a foundational basis. And so as long as you're motivated to figure out what you want to do and then apply the resources you have at your disposal, which right now are the best we've ever had in civilization, um, you're going to be in a better place. And there's gonna be a lot of people who are older than you, who are in middle management or executive positions who are going to tell you that there's gonna be problems or they're gonna cut your jobs or whatever. And the reality is if if you adapt this stuff because you have time, you you don't have these predisposed habits and like assumptions about how things are supposed to work, you're you're in a position to excel ahead of those people. So I think to be to me, I think young people are at an extreme advantage right now. And I think there's a lot of people, I know CTOs at at other companies. I know people who are in senior executive positions, who are my peers, who, you know, the the response I get is yeah, they're reading about what's going on in AI, but they don't have time to really dig into this. They're busy just trying to continue on with things as the status quo. And they're aware of this stuff. But I think if you're young enough and you have time and you're figuring it out as part of your new foundation, like there's no reason to be scared. I think, I think that is where um people get it mixed up and people get it wrong, and they say this is a problem for the entry-level people, and and they got the got people who are trying to come up in the world. I think that's where the opportunity is. And um there's a lot of suppression happening right now where the kind of old guard is trying to make them think it's a problem, when I think it's really opportunity, more so than anything else. I think so as well.

SPEAKER_04

I think so as well. I think a lot of people are scared off by it, but it's like all this really does is accelerate people's learning to a crazy degree we've never ever seen before. Like, you no longer need a tutor because all the information is available to you at questions and it will ask you with non-biased. It's like the smart people will just get smarter, and the people who are falling behind will just fall behind even more. But the the the gap to being smart and having that access to information is now zero. Like, you no longer need this crazy degree, you know no longer need this access to certain education. Like there's guys at Stanford who will underuse AI and be outperformed by a guy who is using it effectively, like will essentially learn faster. So I think I do think a lot of people get down on themselves and say, like, oh, like AI is gonna replace my job. Like, yes, but like Swizzle said, there's gonna be so many other jobs that come out of the back of this, and it's about finding and being prepared for what they are. And I know it seems like that seems like a loose thing to say, like it's uh undefined thing, but it's like the gap to knowledge on this stuff is crazy at the moment. Like there is uh a lot of people who just don't know what it is, and as soon as you do understand what it is, you're at just a massive advantage.

SPEAKER_02

Like, I do think that a lot of people are so used to leveraging institutional knowledge, like uh institutions or people to support them and teach them, and this is a situation where you just really need to put it upon yourself to learn and like take the time and like grind it out on your own because no one's gonna fucking do that for you. And if you're willing to put the time in, um you can truly become an expert and make yourself marketable or whatever you need to to find a job. Um and I think that that's always been true to some degree, but this is the true democratization of building um and software usage for lack of a better word, um, for the first time ever. Like there's been barriers to entry forever, and those barriers are gone now.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah, and not even just software usage, like I think education in general has been democratized and and information is now a commodity and it's cheap to acquire. Like anyone, you can use the free tier of these uh services and and have access to so much stuff. I think like the the you know, we see on crypto Twitter there's constantly this saying of, you know, the joking around about like the permanent if you don't catch up and learn this, you're gonna be stuck in the permanent underclass. I'll see that. But in a way, that's actually the opposite is true because, you know, where it used to be like, hey, they gated off Harvard, they gated off Yale, I don't get to go to Princeton or Stanford, like I'm stuck, I have to go to the, you know, the state school nearby. And it's just I don't have access to the same network, I don't have access to any of that information. Guess what? Like now you have the ability to just at your fingertips have access to any educational resources you could possibly imagine. That wasn't true even a couple years ago. And um, so I think there's a lot of rethinking and rebalancing people have to do in how in terms of how they kind of rationalize what's going on here. But like, man, regardless of which side you're coming from, if you're somewhere in a position of advantages, there's a chance for you to really utilize this stuff and move faster. If you're coming from a place where historically you didn't have many advantages, there are now some tools and resources you just need to become aware of. And all of a sudden you can really attack some things and have the playing field leveled out a little bit, I think.

SPEAKER_02

It's so funny, Swiss. You said underclass, and I was on Twitter and this tweet just popped up.

SPEAKER_04

This is this is the number of reasons. And Dialgo. Yeah, this is funny for a number of reasons. Number one, he's coding on Windows, which just doesn't really happen anymore. Like, not many people do this, so like he this is clearly like a performative arse picture. Like he's opened up, opened up VS code and just gone, guys, go have a picture of me real quick because two minutes.

SPEAKER_03

Get the media. He actually isn't probably doing anything here. No one actually codes like this.

SPEAKER_01

But this is Sats and Sats just picking up the granular details in the meme in here.

SPEAKER_03

No, but I saw this earlier and I zoomed in. I was like, there's just no one does this.

SPEAKER_04

Like he's definitely just sat down and gone, get the media team over and get a fucking few picks. But man, um, yeah, I saw a lot of this, like Zuck back in the fucking office, grinding. Back in the trenches, back in the trenches. Yeah, I I did actually watch um what's that movie called? The one uh of him building Facebook, the social network. Great. Yeah, I watched that. I watched that the other day, and I was like, wow, it is fucking really good.

SPEAKER_02

Um what do you guys think the North Koreans are gonna be capable of now with all these tools? Like they've been getting people, right? They've been they've been they've made out like fucking bandits just with social engineering hacks and simple little tricks here and there.

SPEAKER_01

They we do have to get into this because we titled today the DeFi disaster, and man, it's being talked about a lot, but I don't like we were talking pretty stream about this. I don't really think it's being talked about enough. Like, I don't think we're factoring in the implic implications of how bad this is, right? Or at least what happens from here. Um it's pretty bad. Maybe we get into a little summary of what actually occurred. Uh I don't know if Wood or Sats, one of you guys, can lead us there, but uh and then we can kind of talk about the the implications.

SPEAKER_04

Trying to find the thing we put in the group chat of well, there's a laundry list.

SPEAKER_02

So first we had the drift hack, right? That was North Korean.

SPEAKER_01

This is what, two weeks ago?

SPEAKER_02

This is two weeks ago, a week and a half ago. And then there was another hack. Who was the who else got hacked shortly after drift?

SPEAKER_04

Um oh fucking now. I do know who you're talking about. It wasn't as big, but it was pretty big. It was like a 50 to 60 Mila.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it was something else. And then Kelpdow got hacked for 293 million dollars, triggering a $13 billion DeFi contagion event in 24 hours. Um which was incredible for many reasons. Um Aave lost. Aave didn't what what happened to Aave?

SPEAKER_04

So Yeah, that there was uh there was a bridge like layer zero, um what got hacked um using like a single signer thing, and they minted hundreds of millions of this wrapped ETH. Um they pot deposited into uh Ave and then they borrowed against all the assets which they just minted from the fucking thin air, um, which essentially gave Aave a load of bad debt pretty much instantly. Um and they had to pause the market and yeah, there's just a lot of repercussions with this, you know. Um personally, if I had funds, and it's very clear it's not even just personally, people are scared now and people don't see the upside of DeFi because there's just such crazy risks associated with it. Like being exposed to a market like Arvey now and you know, farming what for five or six percent yield, but your downside is a hundred percent and losing all your money because these export exploits are not like I was I would say a few years ago they weren't as common, but now they're happening a lot. Arve's gone through some fucking shit in this past year, and it just seems to be getting worse. And it's like yeah, we saw I think over seven billion dollars leave um DeFi across all chains over the last like 72 hours. Um not an understatement that people are fucking sick of it and people don't see the upside anymore. And I see a lot of people, even smarter people in group chats, going like, look, if it's not on an institutional account anymore, I'm not actually gonna play. Like, I'm not gonna, I don't, I'm not interested in DeFi at all with size. Um, and I think I'm in the same I'm in the same boat, and this is coming from someone who I've held a lot of this stuff in the past, you know, and I still hold a lot of HLP and things like that, but I'm gonna keep HLP because I'm a degenerate. But um things like Camino, you know, I'm a bit I'm a bit unsure on now. Um like I hold a lot on my port in DeFi. Pretty much, I would say 85-90% of my port is on-chain in crypto. So it's a little bit more.

SPEAKER_02

So my thesis to this and why the implications aren't as broad is that a lot of this money that is propping up DeFi is long-term crypto native money that hasn't paid fucking taxes, and that people can't go anywhere else with it. Like if it's me, I I've paid tax on my money, my money's been off-ramped. I would never in 10 million years put my money into a DeFi protocol. There's no world. I will buy treasuries, I will buy money markets, I will buy bonds, I will buy bond funds, I will get 4% yield somewhere else, 5% yield somewhere else. I do not need to do that in crypto. I do not need the risk, I do not need to cust, I do not need to custody it myself. Or do I want to custody it myself? I want someone else to do everything. I don't want to have to touch buttons, I don't want to do anything. I want to put it in my fidelity account and it get fucking dumb for me and not have to be able to sleep at night. Um, but I think a lot of this money is old Bitcoin ETH Wales that have never withdrawn it and they owe a tremendous amount of taxes on it, and they don't know what else to fucking do with it. I mean, so they're for that reason it'll never come up. Yeah, I mean, I think I think I'm just describing a lot of people that people don't want this money to enter the financial system. They've treated it as a bank account, and they haven't figured out how to get that money into the real world yet.

SPEAKER_01

I think like 5% of my port in my bank, the rest is all crypto, you know, I'm like I think, but like what you guys are describing is I think exactly why I feel like it should be more concerning because it's like removing the veil in a lot of ways. And I don't know if what you guys are saying is is we don't know if that's accurate or not, but it you know it's not a cra, it's not a crazy thesis. And like ultimately, this is supposed DeFi is the side, this is the side of crypto here. Like that's supposed to be safe yield. The word safe is supposed to, it has for that to work, for it to be anything of value, that has to be associated with what you're doing there. When you're generating yield, when you're using these protocols, like you shouldn't have to even think about these risks, right? Like there should be, there should be like a peace of mind that it's like, okay, I know exactly what I'm doing here. Um what's concerning is like the lack of reaction because DeFi is a prevailing narrative of crypto, has been for a long time. It's this this ideological future where we can all you know do this on our own and and like you know, keep custody of our money, but but generate yield, et cetera, et cetera. Um, this happens, nasty, disgusting exploits all over the place. This this Ave thing is bad, right? Um, kelp Dow. I don't know why someone would name something kelp Doubt and then someone would decide to put their money into something called Kelp Dow and think it's good. But like you do that, and the system kind of breaks and falls apart for whatever reason. We got a bunch of finger pointing, and no one wants to take accountability, and they're saying, well, give these crazy PR releases with a bunch of explanations about modular security and like whatever fuck all else. Like, we we don't care, we just want to know that it's safe. Um, but then this happens, and the the reaction was so muted. Like, I would have expected something like this to happen with the extremity that it did, and I would have thought that the Ethereum would have gone down 15-20% in a day. It really didn't move other than the fact that it was moving alongside Bitcoin, right?

SPEAKER_04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um as a result, it's like, okay, so does that mean these institutions kind of saw it or didn't even see it and just don't care that much? And if not, it means, okay, is institutional interest in DeFi as we have been saying that it is really not like as strong of an interest as we thought. So I find myself in circles where I'm like, man, the fact that this hasn't been overblown and the reaction so muted means like I don't know where this thing is going as a whole, anyways.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, yeah. I'm in the same boat. I'm surprised it didn't blow up even more. I felt like all the smart people were talking about it a lot and and sort of worrying that a lot of CT just weren't asked because a lot of people don't use DeFi anymore. Um like yeah, it seems it's in a bit of a tricky spot. But like I as someone who holds like a lot of this stuff myself, like through Camino and things like that, it's like it is unsettling, and it does it is making me reconsider like my whole portfolio structure of getting things out and getting things into safer environments because I don't want to be in the position where I wake up one day and I'm exploited and all my bread's gone. Um that doesn't sound like a fucking good day. And I know there's probably hundreds of thousands of people like me right now having that them same thoughts. So, what happens when we all you know bridge off? Um, like we saw in the past 72 hours, like seven billion dollars leaving. But yeah, it feels like we haven't learned, you know, this stuff has been going on for ages. Like we were talking about Chris on the last show, like BlockFi. When block like, think how long ago that was, and we're still at the same point where you can wake up in the morning and all your money can be gone. Um, that's not an attractive thing for anyone.

SPEAKER_01

Uh but that's the thing, like back back when it happened with BlockFi, like, okay, bad thing, but we could accept that because it's like, hey, we're in the early days, man. Like, this is an industry that's maturing, we're figuring things out, this is revolutionary, uh, we're not there yet. But like, you know, we just gotta work out the kinks. Now we're years later. This is like supposed to be a maturing industry. Like, this shit just can't keep happening, man. Like, I don't care what the reason is. Like, like social engineering, not a secure, you know, they say it's it wasn't like you know, code-based issues or ever. Okay. But that's almost worse. Nope, because you're investing in code. They had no fail safes in place, no protections in safe. Like you it's not something you can trust putting your money into.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, you don't end the story. You don't hear a Citibank or JP Morgan just going, guys, we got exploited. Unlucky. Sorry, guys, dude. Sorry, help you. Yeah, like vaporize into the wind. Like, you don't hear anything like that. And it's like, there's just no security on these things because they don't believe it themselves, you know. Like, we there's no good, there's no crypto account where it's like, oh, we'll offer you 250 grand if you lose all your bread. No, like we're not confident at all. All your bread's gone, you're fucked. Um, but yeah, the exploit uptick is is crazy, especially after you know all this shit about AI. I think it definitely assists them. But I think another thing as well, outside of crypto, we saw lovable get exploited as well over this last few days. What's that? It's a thing similar to Claude. Uh it builds apps, it's a one of the one of the biggest AI platforms, uh like vibe coding platforms. They got exploited in all the private details of what people were building, and some personal names, there was a big data leak. Um yeah, it's not fucking good. It's really not good. Um, and they addressed it in a really bad way as well. Um it just seems to be this massive uptick of big companies getting exploited. And I think it's it's a it's a symptom of a lot of things. The symptoms of a lot of things of where people build fast now. People build fast and then they they don't they don't think of the security risks, they just think of like how can we get out at the fastest, you know?

SPEAKER_02

Dude, look at this. Are they a TV chart? Insane TV dude.

SPEAKER_04

Insane.

SPEAKER_02

Like insane, down 10 billion since the kelp Dow thing. Well, how how do we how how do we how are we investing in things called kelp DAO? It's incredible. It truly is fucking incredible. We had that, we got like Rave Dow down 99. And people are like, oh, we should take this industry serious. We got fucking Donald Trump's monkey children out there like touting it. And what was Rave Dow?

SPEAKER_01

What was that stuff? Yeah, I saw these notifications about Rave crashing. I'm like, I've never even heard of that. What is Rave?

SPEAKER_02

I don't even know what it is. I have no idea what it is.

SPEAKER_01

I saw I saw it had jumped up, it was like a top five cryptocurrency for like for like a couple days, and I'm like, okay, this looks like a honeypot, but was it a real thing? I can't I I think I it had something to do with exchange crime, and I know I don't want to.

SPEAKER_04

Something related to Binance? Yes. I thought Binance were involved, of course they were. Classic. Allegedly, of course. Allegedly, please. Allegedly, and BitGet was somehow heavily involved. Um Bitget were heavily involved. Uh, I saw a lot of people flaming this this woman who's uh C level there because she said it was gonna be the next Ethereum or something on Twitter just before it crashed, as you do, you know. Rave Dow was gonna be the next Ethereum, some bullshit like that. It was some crazy, crazy shill. Um, and yeah, she's been getting a lot of shit on the timeline for it. But yeah, once again, not a good look, but it's it's also a case of where not Binance, Binance and Coinbase are completely separate from this and probably Kraken. Yeah, but a lot of these T2 and T3 exchanges have to find a way to survive a bear market, and it's not necessarily like let's just go scam our users, but it's like we have to generate volume somehow. Um, and some of it is literally getting list like like getting coins going on your platform, you list them first and you pump them, and you hopefully attract people to come and open gate accounts or bit get accounts. Uh like that's how they survive bear markets historically. And you know, it just it doesn't work like that as as easy as it did back in the day. Um, you end up with shit like this happening. Um, but once again, I don't know the full details.

SPEAKER_01

I just looked up what this rave DAO is, and honestly, if anyone bought this in the first race of it, I mean good going. I I don't know why you would have convinced yourself that this was I guess Zach XBT did a whole investigation on it, caught basically came to the conclusion that it's a pump and dump. Yeah, no shit.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, and then you still end up fucking bought. This has happened before in it. Zach will do a whole post on something, and people will be like, bullish.

SPEAKER_02

And then so so so this all happens. Um Arbitrum freezes funds. Uh they focus for a 71 million worth of ETH connected to the exporter on Arbitrum 1. Um acted with law enforcement, blah blah blah, whatever. The most decentralized platform in all of crypto, as Vitalik called it, I think, back in the day. Yeah, is now showing it as not very decentralized at all. No. Um, so another you know fallacy of crypto is which is decentralization on full display again today.

SPEAKER_04

Um it's all a lie. It's actually crazy because it's actually all a lie. Like it's like nothing is decentralized because they can just open up your fucking account and freeze it. Not necessarily it's a bad thing because these guys are committing fucking crimes, but like this means like hype as we know it as well, like hype is not decentralized, really. Like they can freeze your fucking wallet, you know? Like, it's just I don't know.

SPEAKER_01

It's a little it's how many points of centralization are there? Like, is it a is there one dictator who's the central point and we trust that person? And and and other than that, it's decentralized, but that one person can intervene. Is it five people? You know, like um seems like a lot right now. Seems like a lot of people can intervene. Yeah, this is a circuitous conversation, though. It's like, man, it's both people want to complain on both sides because you remember when Circle didn't freeze funds on which uh was this Drift? Was that Drift or something before then? Yeah, they didn't freeze the funds, people were up in arms, they were so mad at Circle. Why wouldn't you do this? Uh but then here it's like they do it, they freeze some of the money. How could they without decentralization? That's incredible.

SPEAKER_03

Without it going to decentralization.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah. So you gotta pitch a poison on that one. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02

But our boy Justin Sun came out and said that Tron's the most decentralized blockchain in the world. So he's we do trust Justin Sun with the keys. You usually have one guy.

SPEAKER_01

I trust Justin Sun. That's our goal. Look at Dan. Look at his chart.

unknown

Look at Tron.

SPEAKER_01

We were early to Tron because we got onto it last week. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, well that's quite literally. Quite literally. The chart I've actually just looked at the chart as well. It's up again. No surprise. Up again. Up again. It is up again. Literally, it's fucking.

SPEAKER_01

By the way, Justin Sun, not really related to any of this, but the guy just loves drama and he was like, oh, some shit's going on. I I gotta throw my name in the mix here. I gotta be involved in this scandal.

SPEAKER_04

This is a crazy comment because he's like, he's like, guys, if you want to do crime, come to Tron. Like, I'm not gonna freeze your money. Come to Tron. It's a kind of a crazy one. Like, I don't know. His chart is up only. Maybe the criminals are behind that. So never know. Allegedly.

SPEAKER_02

Allegedly, allegedly. It's funny. We have a friend who's in Bali right now who says he's staying at a $30,000 a week place, and they all use Tron to pay people with everything. And it's like you only go to Bali in the $30,000 a week thing if you're doing something sketchy while you're using Tron. And this guy, our Justin's son, facilitating crime around the world. What does he get?

SPEAKER_04

He bought a banana on the wall and just fucking ate it for like 50 million bucks. Yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Can you imagine having 50 million bucks to buy a fucking banana just to take this picture? It was an all-time picture.

SPEAKER_04

It was like this peak bull market as well. Didn't this banana rip to like 100 mil or something?

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it was so great. Banana tape wall, that coin. No, no, no, no.

SPEAKER_01

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Probably so. By the way, is this not to not to go full TMZ, but this guy's dating Eileen Goo? Is that true?

SPEAKER_02

Dude, good for him. I hope so.

SPEAKER_01

If you're dating Eileen Goo, you're, I mean Justin Sun is just he just wins. I mean, actually, he might have just announced that he is, to be honest. Like it might be, they might have never met each other, but he just said, Yeah, yeah, I'm dating.

SPEAKER_02

Or David.

SPEAKER_04

It's a good move. It's a good move.

SPEAKER_02

I mean, who's gonna like question Justin Sun if he says he's doing that?

SPEAKER_04

I'm not questioning him. I'm not questioning him. His charts up only. Like, fucking hell, bro. I'm not in. Why am I not in? I need to just every time I open the pod, I sit here. I'm like, it's about to break out. Like, I could be buying the top here. I'd look at the city.

SPEAKER_01

Full portron. We we're over here stressing the markets every day. We could just be full portron and just chilling.

SPEAKER_04

I'm gonna long it right now. I'm gonna long it right now and we'll come back to this one not fucking sidelined, man.

SPEAKER_02

Asteroid 147 mil. You guys are still flat to up small.

SPEAKER_04

Oh, for fuck's sake, man. Look, it's positive that it's holding on, you know. It's a bullish accumulation zone. I'm up we're just retesting. Prior resistance. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're just we're just it's a classic, it's it's bullish distribution ready for the next leg up to to a billion dollars.

SPEAKER_01

I'm not holding on to break-even and overexpose. That's not what's happening.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, no, no, not at all. That's not what's going on here. I'm fully prepared for the upside and the upside only. I'm not prepared for the downside. Yeah, um this is not me shilling asteroid, by the way, guys, but yeah, I do have to do that. Certainly it's looking back.

SPEAKER_02

I subscribe a 90% chance that we are down 50% by this time next week.

SPEAKER_04

That's not that's not why I want it here, you know.

SPEAKER_01

That's I feel like that's I feel like that's uh side bet bait. You're looking for a side bet here.

SPEAKER_02

I'm not looking for a side bet. I I just don't, you know, I'm just looking for an entry. The only so the thesis behind this is not attention, it's crime. It's that ETH people are gonna crime this up.

SPEAKER_04

No, it's Elon, it's Elon posting it, you know.

SPEAKER_01

I feel like we need this feature on the show. I think we need to have like a polymarketing. Like a side, yeah, a side bet side bet feature where usually Sats and I are in agreement and and we're going against Wood here. Is that is that normally the case?

SPEAKER_04

Um Yeah, I think so, honestly. I think so. That is pretty common. Um but Wood's usually, I don't know, Wood's usually the dirty bear. I've I've turned into the dirty bear.

SPEAKER_01

Um you are pretty bearish lately.

SPEAKER_04

I am pretty bearish. I am still like I said this in another, I'm still horrendously bear pilled on the whole market. I have no idea why I can't shake it. Um I can't shake it. I look at stocks and I'm like, this looks overextended. I look at Bitcoin and I'm like, wow, this is just not even moving, and stocks are all time high. I'm worried. Uh but I shouldn't be. It's gonna start ripping in my face and I'm gonna be embarrassed.

SPEAKER_02

But fuck yeah. My equity portfolio is at an all-time high right now.

SPEAKER_01

Damn it. Um what else we got, guys? I think Kevin Warsh is uh do we care about the about the end of the JPOW area? Should we pour one out for him?

SPEAKER_02

Pour one out for him. Lower lower lower interest rates, drive liquidity into the system, make this a 2028 problem. 2028 problem for the world.

SPEAKER_01

And Kevin Warsh, uh lighter angel investor. So did you see as well? Save my bags.

SPEAKER_04

Are you still in Lyon? I am. Oh fucking hell, man. Did you see did you see the uh the tweet from uh I put in the group chat of Sailor, the bubble, the orange bubble, and people running away from the orange bubble. Yeah what is he? He's gotta be trolling, he has to be trolling. There's no other way. He must be pre-planned this and going, you know what, this is gonna be a funny one, guys. This is gonna be a fucking good one. He is on a generational troll, it feels like the this yeah, oh my god. Come on, like come on, incoming. What does he mean? The bubble's gonna pop and everyone's gonna run away.

SPEAKER_01

Uh this is another thing as well. What what is he's gotta be doing this on purpose, right? Because he did the whole thing where he was in the life in the lifeboat a few months ago and like getting away from the ship.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, yeah. The ship's burning behind him and he's in the life on his own leaving.

SPEAKER_02

Uh guys, do we think Sailor's got a guy who makes these for him, or do you think he logs into Claude Code just like the rest of us?

SPEAKER_01

This looks like this this reeks of a guy who does it himself. This does it himself. This is low grade AI.

SPEAKER_04

Yes, this is one reek of a guy who made it to Claude. He's using Grok. Yeah, this is one prop Gemini or Grok for sure. Yeah, yeah, literally, 100%. I'm worried about like I was a big Sailor uh defender back in the day saying like everything's gonna be fine. The strike shit has me a little worried. That shit is not gonna be fine. That reeks so badly that something is gonna go wrong there, and it's it's reeking a desperation to me. Um and I think it's uh it's becoming a bit of a risk. Like for it's not something I really think about, I don't have the size to think about it, but it's like as a massive buyer, like a billion-dollar buyer of Bitcoin, if a sailor owns close to four and a half to five percent of supply. You're seeing him do the strike stuff where it's inherently, you don't even have to look too deep into it, it's inherently very sketchy and like non-sustainable. Like, are you getting a little worried? Are you going you know, this could end really badly? Like, I don't know. Maybe I'm overthinking it.

SPEAKER_01

Potentially, definitely because I'm bad. We probably need to bring on someone in who can do a deep dive and explain what's actually happening with stretch because stretch strike, I don't know how to pronounce it, but some people, you know, like I've seen multiple, I've seen people on both sides. Like, some people are saying, look, the only reason they can buy that much is because of the demand from retail buyers. But um, I don't know. Let's let's maybe find someone who's more equipped to talk about it than us. We have Rob on.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, well, we'll have Rob on to talk about it. Um, let's do it. Um, I think that about does it for us. You guys want to show anything else? Then we're good to log off for this for this Tuesday. Um, we'll be back Friday. Uh maybe we're tentative Friday. Um, but we'll figure that out Wednesday or Thursday. Um and yeah, good chatting, guys. Uh go download FOMO today, promo code risk on. Um, and uh we'll probably be here Friday. Uh maybe Thursday though, we'll keep you guys posted. Um and talk soon.