Risk On Podcast
risk on podcast
Risk On Podcast
Half Cash Half Stock | EP 60
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Covering:
• BTC & equities ripping
• A16z raised a $2.2B crypto fund
• GME offers to buy eBay at 50/50 cash/stock
• Coinbase lays off 14% of staff while Hyperliquid out-earns them with 20 employees
Good afternoon. Welcome. Risk on episode 59, Fishhead Cannons and Charity Coins. Big, big last few days in uh crypto and finance news. Um brought to you by FOMO. Uh go mess around with their web app today. Download the app as well. Use promo code risk on 10% off all fees there. Go trade with us. Um and uh welcome. Good day today, guys. Uh equities are just ripping. Um turbo. I'm a happy guy. I'm a Google respecter, an Amazon respecter.
SPEAKER_04I was gonna say we've got two two Google guys here, isn't it? Shit, man. I'm sorry, I'm a bit sidelined equies. Kind of kind of sucks.
SPEAKER_02Fully sidelined or a bit sidelined?
SPEAKER_04Completely sidelined, yeah. Completely sidelined. Uh I know bad fucking stuff, guys.
SPEAKER_01Um he doesn't respect the US economy. Um just a bad guy.
SPEAKER_04I this whole time I it's been one of them ones where I've been watching it grind up and I'm like, don't want to buy here, you know, it could be the top, and then it just puts in a new high just within a few days, and I'm just a complete donkey who's sidelined again. Tough. It's the crypto mindset.
SPEAKER_01The crypto mindset is baked deep into your blood and your DNA.
SPEAKER_02The crypto mindset is a fucking cancer when it comes to like long-term thinking. Um I'm sitting here like trying to like you know, I was trying to like time some of my equity positions, and it was like, dude, like just go like look at the last 100 years of charts, like just yeah, fucking hold on to it. If you don't need the money for 10 years, 20 years, whatever, why are you thinking about selling it? It makes no sense to try to time this.
SPEAKER_01It's the ultimate, like, you know, they say time in market over timing the market. Uh, it's unfortunately true, as boring as that sounds. Um, but it's funny, we were talking right before we got on the stream. We were saying, like, you know, I don't know about that, he's sidelined over there, but wouldn't I like probably 90% of my, you know, uh port to overall portfolio of everything is equities, real estate, etc. Yeah. And I literally never look at this stuff. Like, I I see alerts. I've you know, obviously we're on Twitter, like staying up to date on everything going on, but like I rarely actually open up my equity portfolio. Yeah, I'm much more concerned about the five to ten percent of asteroid Shiba dog Inu going to the moon, and I have to monitor that all day, every day, and I'm stressing out, man. I've been staring at this chart, stressing. Um anything in the crypto world, it's uh I I view it as the um everything else is safe, but then you got the the this is the Google Zcash barbell, the and you gotta focus on the lower half of the barbell. Great barbell monitor that.
SPEAKER_04I think it's yeah, asteroid, asteroid uh Zcash barbell. That's what I'm on, that's what I've been on. Um don't have Google, unfortunately. Don't know how to do it. I leave asteroid, I'm gonna make up for it when I hit a 10x on this. Uh not gonna happen realistic. I'm probably it might, it might though. That's the reality.
SPEAKER_01That's why you stay locked into this stuff. Ideally, lower size.
SPEAKER_04I don't know if we've been good at doing the lower size thing in this regard, but maybe a little too much, a little too much in, but you know, we can dream.
SPEAKER_02We can dream are you guys big asteroid bulls still? Like, I know you guys have just kept on buying, but like, are you buying because it's a narrative that you think has legs, or are you buying because you think it's a coin that ETH whales are gonna pump?
SPEAKER_04No, I'm buying because I want you to be wrong. Um, it's purely a vendetta bit. Yeah, I want to be over there like I made seven figures off asteroid and you were sidelined. That is gonna that's gonna be fucking magical, I tell you. Probably not gonna happen, and uh probably the inverse will happen where I'll lose 30%, and then you'll be like, bro, yeah, you just lost 70k, you're in you're a you're a donkey. You're a must.
SPEAKER_02Swizzle, why, why, why, why, why are you an asteroid Swizzle?
SPEAKER_01Uh because would sometimes sometimes you gotta do things to make a statement. Sometimes you just have to make a statement. Um, no, I I think look, I think there's there's been such a dearth of on-chain, like it's been it's been a a desert, it's been a just a wasteland of garbage for months on end. And the volume is still not back. There's there's still really not a lot of sustainable narratives. Do I think the narrative itself matters that much anymore? Probably not, but there's something that happened here when I look at price action where the price stabilized up at this floor, like it did, it didn't retrace. And there's clearly some larger forces at play, in my opinion, when you look at the way the chart has been supported. Volume has gone down, and I in this case, I don't think it's a bad thing. Um, I I think there's some opportunity here. I think there's some opportunity here. I'm I'm I'm cautiously bullish. I love the one.
SPEAKER_04I love the one sellers have run out of tokens.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, sellers have to do that.
SPEAKER_04Until they do until they haven't, right?
SPEAKER_03That's all yeah, until until sellers perk up and become David Calkins again.
SPEAKER_02But the other side of the argument is maybe buyers have run out of money to buy it. Don't say that, bro. Don't say that for sure.
SPEAKER_01No, here's the thing. You're probably right, like 90%, you're probably right, would but we've all been doing this a long time. Sometimes you get this feeling and you can't really justify it or rationalize it, it doesn't make sense.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_01But there's just when you've been in crypto long enough, sometimes you just feel something like you just know what's about to happen. And it doesn't make sense. It shouldn't happen, probably, because the narrative has slowed down a lot. But I just feel it, man. I just I just feel like something's gonna happen.
SPEAKER_02All right, I I'll tell you the last coin I can remember where it shouldn't have gone up, but it did, was troll. Troll was the worst coin ever. That's a really good one. Dumb coin. I blasted half a percent at 25 million and wrote it to 270. That was just crime, though. Come on. That was just crime. That wasn't it? We don't use those words.
SPEAKER_01It doesn't matter what happens after that. What matters is is it gonna go up or not?
SPEAKER_02Asteroid is a good example at 50. Asteroid at a buck fifty, though, you think as what? Juice for a 50%. I think as soon as you set up. So you guys are betting multiple six figures on a 2x. No, no, no, no, no. On an illicit.
SPEAKER_01I am simply I am simply saying higher. I don't as soon as I put a price target on it, then I should get out of the trade because I think then you're anchored to something. All I know is it's going higher. That's asymmetric upset, you're saying. I don't know. I don't know. I have no real thesis. I have no real thesis, I have no explanation other than it feels good to hold right now. It just feels good.
SPEAKER_04It's screaming at me. Like the number 350 is screaming at me, man. I feel it in the chart. Every time I open it, would I wish you felt it, you know? Maybe you just have a lot of.
SPEAKER_02I wish I felt it too. But you know, I'm over here 2Xing my money, and like I'm up 50% on my Amazon position in the last year. It's boring. It's boring.
SPEAKER_01By the way, can you guys imagine if like a random non-crypto Twitter listener who like just accidentally clicked on this and started like listening for a couple minutes, and they're like, okay, these guys stock, bro. These guys are actual idiots. We are actual idiots. But the crazy thing is that this works what we're talking about in certain scenarios, probably not in a bear market like this, but at times that would be the mindset in a bull market that you should have, which is crazy to say.
SPEAKER_04Um, I'm surprised it isn't lower. You know, I I'm surprised it isn't lower. I'm surprised it hasn't broke down, and that's what's keeping me going, you know. It's not sub 100 mil yet.
SPEAKER_02Every time it goes to like 110 mil, we just see people spamming wallets that have like a million dollars and then throwing money into it to support.
SPEAKER_04I love I love saying that in group chats. I won't even look at the wallet tells me about Binance.
SPEAKER_01Binance is buying uh 40 million dollars in this wallet that only holds USDT Asteroid.
SPEAKER_02The Binance listing for Asteroid has been coming for about a month now. It's not even been alive for a month, but the Binance.
SPEAKER_01People talking about Binance listings because that's every time the coin goes up, wallet Binance wallet freshies.
SPEAKER_04Who's a providing culprit for that? Yeah. Plateau. She loves you know, she loves she loves going Binance Freshies, Binance Freshies, buying the chart, guys.
SPEAKER_03And it's like you look at the wallet, 10k in. No one's no one's asking them questions. No one's asking them questions.
SPEAKER_01I really don't like that. It makes me reconsider because I mean I've probably been in 50 coins where the Binance listing rumors have started, and not once has it ever happened.
SPEAKER_04Walk was a big Binance listing, big Binance listing, guys. Yeah, yeah. Big raise, big raise, beginning at the end.
SPEAKER_02I could really use the money I put in for the flog listing right now, guys.
SPEAKER_04Why don't you give Kiban or a bell? Why don't you give Cabano a bell for 20?
SPEAKER_02Can I have my 20k back? I've got a fucking couch to buy, man.
SPEAKER_04Jesus Christ. You probably you probably bought a couch without you probably found his new house.
SPEAKER_02So yeah, seriously. Um yeah, I don't know. I hope you guys win.
SPEAKER_01I mean, you know, whenever I say it, whenever I say it, I hope you literally don't want us to win, though.
SPEAKER_04Every time it goes down, the dripping stick is in the group chat.
SPEAKER_02I I I I want you to win. I really don't want you to win. I I hate wrong. I really hate being wrong. I I I'm okay being silence, being sidelined. I just don't get this one. Um, if it goes up and you guys make money and you get to rub it in my face, that'll be really fun for you guys, though. So I I I hope you get to do that to me. I I hope you get to feel like what it feels like to win when no one else thinks you can win. Um because it's really it's really a great feeling.
SPEAKER_01Um the good news is like, man, we all were forcibly we were forced to stop trading meme coins a long time ago because it just the the game stopped working, the game stopped being fun. I just like that we're having fun with it. One last hurrah for Sarah. Yeah, one last hurrah. One last hurrah.
SPEAKER_04Might lose Midfields but you know, at least we had fun.
SPEAKER_02The last thing I did want to say was yesterday. I don't know if you guys saw that Elon called every crypto a scam, basically. Yeah, not great in court, not great for your ass to repeat. You know, a bit shaky for asteroid.
SPEAKER_01No, he said most. He said most, but some are least.
SPEAKER_04No, no, oh, he's talking about asteroid here, guys. Yeah, talking about asteroid and doge. That's the best comparison. I love that one. I love that one. Let's get off an asteroid before let's get off an asteroid. Did you guys watch uh the new Anthem podcast? I did, man. I I watched the reveal, yeah, and like I was like, because I'm interested. I've been watching fucking Banks and the FaZe guys literally since like I was a kid, you know. Like, this is the YouTubers I fucking grew up on. And yeah, I was expecting some like I don't know, some horror story with the streamers, like he had some problems with it with the streamers, and then boom, Ansom's on my screen, and I was like, what the fuck is going on? Like what is this weird mix of people? Interesting idea. I know a lot of the streaming community, um, like uh like the the stable now's and a lot of people are not a big fan of this, so I think it's gone down mixed, mostly negative, but but mixed. Uh, I think a lot of people in crypto have a bad association of banks as well. And in all fairness, I everyone loves to call him a scammer, but like I I think he just got tied up in the wrong shit at the wrong time, um, which is also the excuse every scammer uses, but like I don't think he had ill intentions, but like neither did Ben Pasanek. So um, yeah, it's a bit of a funny one, man. I don't know. Did you guys watch this podcast? Just a couple clips.
SPEAKER_02I watched clips and I watched the reveal video, and like, dude, it's the only thing on my newsfeed right now.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, you do have to be talking about you do have to hand them to this. I know I have this sick painting in the background, and that's a nice little perk for us, right? Some artwork, but their their setup is legit. Like that's a great studio setup. Um I assume it's different location, like they're not there in the same place, right? No, they each have their own setup. But they put a lot of work into that. It looks great. I didn't really listen to enough of the content to say if it was helpful or not, but uh, I mean, would did they um did they like sound prepared? Like they actually had helpful. They sounded prepared, yeah.
SPEAKER_02They sound they they sounded prepared. I think it's a weird mix of people is my thing. It's like Ansom is this super integral part of crypto Twitter. Um tapped in knows everything very in-depth what's going on. Banks is more on the periphery of that and probably connects to uh Zoomers and Gen Z people, and maybe some people that are older um who do watch streaming and Twitch stuff already. So he brings that audience into it. Um, and I just am curious how the chemistry ends up building. I mean, we've been doing that, we've done almost 60 of these episodes, and so like we've gotten to know each other very well, and we can talk, whatever. But we we had relationships before that, right? So I'm curious how that develops. I think that's gonna be interesting because they are coming from two different places. It feels like a studio or polymarket, whoever their sponsor is, just plucked these two random people who might have no connection to each other and were like, go make a shop. And does that work? I I'm curious to see how it works.
SPEAKER_01Well, what was the main like were they just mostly shooting the shit, telling stories, or was it market focused? Like because obviously I saw the clip where they're I saw the clip where they're both pretty aggressively anti-crypto. I know that's the general sentiment around the world right now, but like, you know, we we've obviously called things how we've seen them here, and like we've you know been forced to be pretty bearish, but like I don't think we're ultimately like we haven't made these proclamations like hey, we're done, crypto's dead, we're done with it, right? We've just said it's in a rough spot. They kind of were of the very dismissive of like other than hype, they were like, crypto's dead, we're not gonna talk about that, right? Yeah, and yet both of them, I mean, banks started doing other stuff, but like that's really been the only markets they've like at least focused on in the in the media. So I'm curious like what their kind of angle is on this, like how how finance focused is it gonna be versus like cultural whatever. But yeah, I I I go on.
SPEAKER_02I assume it'll probably kind of be a balance of how we're how we do things, how it's mostly market focused, but you sprinkle in like relevant finance adjacent stories going forward. I think their viewpoint, uh Ansom wrote a really long tweet yesterday. Um, and this was kind of expressed in the show as well about how crypto, dead, AI, whatever, most profitable companies in the world are all gonna be turboted by everybody. Um basically proclaiming crypto dead. There's no reason to buy anything but stable coins, perps, um what do you think is an app that could do well is um and then basically saying you should just be in equities and bidding AI shit coins. That's crazy. That was kind of a sentiment um which a lot of people, a lot of real hardcore crypto natives, I saw dunking on that take, and saying, like, you're advising people to buy the top of the most speculative bubble, like bubbles in uh uh equities since the dot-com bubble, um, while crypto is just like you know, at bottom levels, this has to be a bottom for crypto. And I kind of agree with that take to some degree.
SPEAKER_01Like, I'm getting I actually do think it's worth us discussing this because I I can see both sides like at the same time, there's an argument to be made, and I think what he's alluding to is this idea that like crypto when it was really like when there was this like speculatory excitement, this we're talking like you know this this previous you know run up from call it 2016 all the way to 2022 or 2023, like it was very unclear what the for like what the foundation of crypto was. Like we kind of knew what it was, but there's all these different things could morph into. It was going to be the future of finance was like the moniker, but literally like internet, like money on internet rails. And as that started to like unfold, there's all these companies that were clearly, as a result, like way overvalued, like they never amounted to anything. Some found product market fit, but like becoming to be more like clear what they fundamentally are. There's still some of that that exists. But in a way, this is where crypto and AI are so interconnected, is like that speculation has morphed, and a lot of those people have shifted from crypto to AI. And that's why I think there is a reasonable take to say, like, maybe AI is like that industry is the final form where it's overtaking it's so much more, but it's also pulling in where all that speculatory excitement was. So then you talk about where in the phase, where in the cycle are we, but like you could argue, well, that that was all a culmination to get us to the real thing, which is AI. I'm not saying I believe that, but like it kind of makes sense as an argument, doesn't it?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I I I think so. But it's it's like he says, like, oh, you should be buying stocks and these AI companies, but it's like a lot of people don't have access to these AI deals. Where do you you can't get exposure to private markets here? And a lot of these explosive moves are happening on private markets. By the time you get access to them, they're using you as exit liquidity. So where does that speculatory money go? Like, where's the gambling money go? You know, where's the guys looking for the fucking 50x go?
SPEAKER_01Um, and I really dislike that a lot of like the a lot of these prominent accounts are kind of saying, like, you should only be looking at private deals, you should look at these private deals. And it's like, that's not realistic because what the average person, if they try to go find it, the only you can find a way to get some type of proxy of access, but on very predatory terms. Yeah, very predatory conditions for your access. We all know, and you should not be doing that unless you have real access insight. The term is private for a reason, like it's not a public market.
SPEAKER_02So and I think that's a bull case of things like hyperliquid, though, is they can create liquid markets for private things like this. Yeah, potentially democratize that process, like Trade XYZ or whatever, like someone's gonna build that out in crypto on crypto rails.
SPEAKER_04Didn't they just they they've just uh trade XYZ put in like a more focused like approach on on uh private markets, didn't they? Um I think today, which is kind of pricing out ventriles um since they're just simply doing what they do now. Uh but it's still like you get an access to them uh way higher than you would like, you know. It's like, are you gonna hit a fucking hundred X on them? No, so it's a bit of a tough one, but I do see where he's coming from. It is a controversial tweet, but like you know, I I don't think it's too crazy from like what is actually reality now. Like a lot of these crypto projects, especially if you still like go through the top 100 crypto projects, it's like the most outrageous slop you've ever seen. We didn't really cleanse, you know, this cycle, we didn't really cleanse the the dog shit because they're all sitting on these crazy treasuries of Ether and Bitcoin, which holds up their value. So yeah, we we haven't added like who the fuck uses polka dot? You know, I don't want to show you.
SPEAKER_01So now that said, and this goes back to now like Wood's side of the argument, which is potentially like everyone's jumping ship at around or near bottom, I think the clarification of that is like it doesn't mean it's a bottom for everything, but what you could see is like in a way, the pump funification of everything, like the dilution of coins and all of these different assets. If, and I'm not saying this happens, but if we see a consolidation cleanse where it's like, okay, there are a few real things that are very interesting and not dead yet in terms of narrative, and all of a sudden you start to see gradually, it's not gonna happen all at once, but all the dispersion siphoned into people being excited about two, three, four, five assets or whatever that are somewhat more real or have the potential to be real. We like Zcash, we think there's a real narrative. People like hype, obviously, Bitcoin, Ethereum, whatever. Like, if it gets consolidated into a few and people start to recognize like the dispersion is going to condense as the market conditions improve, there there is definitely some asymmetric upside on a few of these. I we can't say which ones they're gonna be, but like there's a case to be made that the great consolidation happens within that cleansing, and you feel you see a few assets really outperform. I think that's very possible. Yeah.
SPEAKER_04I I gotta say, I don't you mentioned Zcash. I'd hate to be that guy, but that chart looks fucking really good at the moment. One of the only cryptocurrencies I hold. Don't want to be that guy, but that chart looks amazing, man. Big big privacy guy. It looks good, I gotta say, it looks good, but also that is that looks horny. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it is my back bias, but like damn like one thing I want to say going back to I mean the really interesting thing about Zcash is sorry, go ahead, Wood.
SPEAKER_02Go ahead. Oh no, no. Um I just wanted to go back to Pump Fun quickly and say that the one thing Pump Fun did was it eliminated incentives for people to build in crypto. Like no one, like, why am I gonna build something when I can dev meme coins or I can trade uh I can ride meme coins to billions of dollars that have no fundamental value because we're just speculative, we're just gambling. Meme meme coins and pump fun really extracted all of that, like uh I don't I don't want to say um like what made crypto, right? Like the character, like the camaraderie and all of it. I think I I think it took a big chunk out of what everyone came here for in the first place, the culture is what I was looking for. Um and I think we need to see a return to that, like a return to we're building these for these principles and for these reasons, um and that there needs to be a cleansing of some sort to get back to that. But like if we take a really hard look at ourselves and look at the last three years of what we've made money on and what we've traded and what's in the top couple hundred, like and for us to sit here and be dunking on anyone telling us that crypto is a scam, like, come on, guys. Yeah, as a bit of a take a hard look at yourself. Yeah, take a hard look at what you traded. Go go look at your trade.
SPEAKER_01But I but I think there's an element of like what we're already seeing is like that process has happened, and you know, there's now a fragmentation of like it's just different communities now. Like that world, that crypto meme coin, like uh it is it is full of basically just like coordinated manipulation. Like that's going to exist forever now. It's not going away, but I do think it's a it's a smaller bubble that's like there's not a lot of people left doing that. It's not gonna be this whole thing, the whole world's coming to do it. It's it's like the slot machines component of all this. And it it will have its, it's an entertainment space, it'll have its pros and its cons, but I think you're gonna see a fragmentation where it's like the people that are spec, you know, trading and speculating and and kind of you know joining in the community around Zcash or they're big in the hype perps trading ecosystem or whatever, it's just not the same people. So I think there's a fragmentation of these different sectors now that need to actually maybe they all get looped in from a stigma standpoint, but they're not the same people anymore, they're not the same like communities. And eventually I think that becomes clear. It's like, okay, those are different industries in a way.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, yeah. The vet the the guys buying Zcash are very different to the guys fucking bidding pump fun, like two different fucking sides of the planet right now.
SPEAKER_01The people in your meme coin trading chat that no matter what, they're not they're not looking at the Zcash chart, they're not looking at Ethereum Ethereum or Solana or whatever. That's irrelevant to them, you know.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, that's actually a good point. I think even last cycle that was like completely different. Like, like you said, everyone was looking like the Bitcoin moves will be celebrated, you know? Like Bitcoin makes a big move up, everyone on the timeline euphoric. And now it's like no one holds any matrix. Yeah, no one actually cares.
SPEAKER_01Like the whole point, you know, the the in 2023, the meme coin trading frenzy. The reason it blew up, what in my opinion, was this this concept of stacking soul, stacking Solana, because you had this massive community, people were super bullish about Solana, it had just survived the darkest depths of a bear market and clearly had this momentum. Every at least my mindset and everyone in my group chat's mindset was like, How do I get my hands on more Solana? That was why people were doing it, yeah.
SPEAKER_04And Steam coins were like a vehicle to get more Solana, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, that's all I was doing. I was trading into I was trading against Solana and holding Solana, you know, it's funny as my stable coin.
SPEAKER_04It's funny. I I'd never done that. I always stacked USDC um pretty much the whole way. Like I had some Solana, but I would I would separate it a lot. Like I wouldn't treat the Solana as my main stack. Everything I would trade, I would literally trade straight to Jupiter.
SPEAKER_01Um keep because you're the Capri Sun generation sets. You're uh the the young young grasshoppers came in and they played in the stables.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, how many more Capri Suns have you had in the last four or 48 hours?
SPEAKER_04Embarrassing amount, embarrassing amount. Like the sugar fucking ticks out of me now.
SPEAKER_02Like you're gonna need diabetes by the end of the street games.
SPEAKER_04I'm on a speed run. I'm on a speed run now of diabetes, it's kind of bad. I've only got like three left though. So that's disgusting.
SPEAKER_01Got on a call with him when he woke up uh yesterday morning and he sounded hung over as shit. I'm like, dude, did you have a big night out last night? He's like, the Capri Suns are hitting me.
SPEAKER_04Capri Suns, bro, taking me out. It's taking me out. It's heavy drink, you know, heavy drink. You guys wouldn't know. You guys wouldn't know. No one knows the situation. A Capri Sun and the Zinn. You're back in the game, bro. You're back in the game. No matter what's coming on.
SPEAKER_02That's just a cancer waiting to happen. Um I wanted to pull up this tweet. Uh I just DeFi hacks in April summarized. I saw this. You guys see this.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, fucking hell. That's a bad one, innit? What like shit? What is it?
SPEAKER_01Oh, there was another one, another one a day or two ago. Yeah, yeah. With the ETH wallets.
SPEAKER_04What's the reasoning for this? You know, what's the what's the upswing? Is it AI?
SPEAKER_02Is it North Koreans hard at work?
SPEAKER_04I've no, yeah, yeah. It might be the Koreans hard at work. Like, yeah, there has to be a specific read, like none of this shit just like you know, no, no, no amount of hacks just spawn in one month and everyone goes, Oh, this is normal. Like something has to have ticked. And I feel like the only thing that did tick is AI.
SPEAKER_01Let me ask you guys a question though, also. Count all these, how many of these protocols have you heard of? Yeah, I mean, fucking drift.
SPEAKER_02I've only heard of drift because of your connection there, Swizzle. Um, and and you telling me about it before. But if I hadn't known that, I would have heard of none of these.
SPEAKER_04You know what? You know what is a is a possibility? All of a lot of these are exit scams by team. Allegedly.
SPEAKER_01Allegedly. Yeah, um, very, very, very possible.
SPEAKER_04Likely very, very yeah, yeah, honestly. Because that they're going crypto's in the mud here. Um, I'm trying to buy my new fucking penthouse. Let me slip out real quick.
SPEAKER_02Um, bro, imagine exit scamming for 60 grand. Yeah, that's pretty simple, huh?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's not a great one, isn't it? Tetanus finance, uh, theta nuts. What is it? Uh theta nuts finance 50. I've heard of nuts. That was for sure. Just the founders were like, all right, theta nuts didn't work out.
SPEAKER_02But like Raya Finance has 19 almost nearly 19 million dollars. What the f who is giving Raya Finance 19 million dollars? That's just insane.
SPEAKER_04Scallop 100.
SPEAKER_02Kelp Dow, I still can't get over Kelp Dow having 293 million.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, that's a crazy one. That's a fucking insane. Sats.
SPEAKER_01Now that you mention it, that has got to be what's happening.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, yeah. Like founders just go and look, guys, we need to get out.
SPEAKER_02So I I saw this guy who works for the Solana Foundation tweet. Uh, DeFi summer of 2021 was basically the dot-com bubble of 2000. Uh, eventually tech uh recovered and it ate the world. So will DeFi. Don't bail on it before you get a chance to make billions. Billions on that.
SPEAKER_01Billions, make billions on your five percent yield.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, but billions is a big stretch, you know. Tops out six percent yield, and you you may lose everything. Uh, but you could make food. You could make six percent. Well, hold on. I love how this guy, this guy, the guy who tweeted this, Abdul. I see previous head of some head of DeFi at Monad. Fucking hell, man.
SPEAKER_02So we're a desert dwell, also a desert dweller.
SPEAKER_04Big guy, yeah. Fellow, fella.
SPEAKER_02Uh yeah, I I think to your point, Sats, just like you can risk everything to make six percent. Um, and you look at these numbers of all the money taken in one month, and you're sitting here saying to yourself, you know what? I think I'm gonna put my money in Ave, which or whatever, which is the safest one, right? Ave to stop, yeah, yeah. Um, yeah, it's a low point, but like we come to crypto for asymmetric returns. DeFi doesn't have that. No. Why am I gonna why am I gonna risk my money here? Unless I'm trying to evade taxes and I have no other option. That's the only reason. That's the primary use case of these things.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, and I think that's a lot of the money left in these broccals, like people who made like ancient whales who made money um and they never poured out and realized it, and then they get caught in this shit storm, get caught playing in kelp DAO fucking around. Yeah, I mean Jesus. Getting burnt on kelp Dow is a is a tough one. I I think if I got burnt in these one one of these things, if say if Camino got burnt, yeah, I would have lost some cash, I would have lost maybe 15-20% of my port nearly. Um, and I would have felt like a right twat because someone who sat through FTX and then you get burnt, like there's actually no excuse. Like you're just a moron.
SPEAKER_01Um, but look, man, like at the same time, like if you are gonna use these protocols, like Camino, it's different than using Tetna nuts or whatever. Like, use the top protocols, yeah. You know, like don't you like these have got to be the ones where it's like you're so much further down the risk curve, and they're probably I bet these guys are you know offering you 16% yield or something crazy. It's like you should be able to read between the lines and know that if you don't know where the yield comes from, you're the fucking yield. You're the one customer that they have, and now you're 52ks at risk. Like probably wanna think.
SPEAKER_04But then you say look at you say look at the big protocols, it's like Ave just got fucked, you know. That I still haven't pulled, I still haven't pulled out of Camino. I pulled out some, I put pulled out like another five percent or something.
SPEAKER_01But Ave did get bailed out, right?
SPEAKER_04They did, yeah, they did. Um but like still I think I'll end up net, I'll end up net zero and taking everything out of DeFi within the next few months because I just couldn't sit through the pain of of losing money in that dumb way for what an extra two percent than what I would be earning in safe assets.
SPEAKER_01At this stage, the the reason you do it is familiarity and comfort, right? You've just been doing it that way for so long, you're used to it. I think that's the other reason. Um, like actually, user interface with a lot of these crypto products is just way slicker, too. And we get used to interfaces being better, and it's like you go to TradFi products and you're like, man, it's so bulky and hard to navigate, but it is safe. Um, so there's something to be said for that too.
SPEAKER_02Who should feel dumber? The guy that lost money on Kelp Dow or Swizzle this morning when he realized he was holding the top charity coin that's chart, that's just ripping fees off of every transaction.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we might need to talk about this a little bit. I add some unpleasant information here.
SPEAKER_02So all the new meta Pump Fun is pushing. Um Pump Pump Pump Fun announces they're burning$307 million of their tokens as like a bulk case for their chart. All of the Pump Fun KOLs, aka their seed investors are going on every podcast talking about how great their buybacks are, yet they fail to just look at the chart and like open their eyes. I think like you know, I I saw Dudas doing do something. It's like just look at the buyback numbers. I don't think dudes has eyes.
SPEAKER_04No, yeah, I he's looking at a different charm, man. He's looking at a different chart. He's looking at his unlocks, uh, like the closer face against his unlocked he's looking at going down one person. Look at his chart.
SPEAKER_02This is gonna be a movie. Um and so they so so they make that announcement, which doesn't go over that well, which basically is confirming that um they're not doing an airdrop, right? Like you can't you can't just burn all your airdrop money, and then conveniently they slide in. We're doing charity coins now. Um and um so doing charity coins, it's built on the back of donate.gg, right, Setz?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I I see. I don't know how it works when you buy the actual tokens on Pump Fun. Um, I know what happens when you donate through donate.gg itself, but I don't know what happens on the front face when you buy the token on pump. Um don't know what the fees are there, but what I do know that's the nasty thing.
SPEAKER_01I assumed they would have like the wherewithal that like whatever fees they collect would be also going to the charity, and I'm not so sure anymore. It might be like business as usual for pump. And business as usual, yeah. All I'm doing is I don't want to say that I don't really know how it works, but I have a bad feeling that there is just another level of moral depravity going on here. Yeah, and uh we know for I still haven't pieced two and two together. I I hope that's not the case.
SPEAKER_04All we know as a fact um is donate.gg charges three percent fees on your charity donations.
SPEAKER_00It used to be four, yeah.
SPEAKER_04Used to, I think it used to be four. Where then fees go, you know, it's it's a bit shaky. You scroll down, it's like we use it to off-ramp, we use it to transfer to USD, USD and send to the charity. I don't remember when off-ramps took a three percent fee. Um I don't remember that at all. So, you know, where's the other 2.9% going? Say you you know, off-ramp fee is 0.1%, which is pretty standard. Where's the other 2.9 going? Like who's whose fee whose wallet am I donating to here? You know, it seems uh it seems a little crazy. What don't you?
SPEAKER_01Yeah. This is on the donate gg website, or this is on the pump donate gg disclosures.
SPEAKER_04Um yeah, donate the GPS.
SPEAKER_01Charge fees for for donation processing, digital asset conversion, off ramping, routing, settlement, other related services. That doesn't sound like a thing that requires three percent.
SPEAKER_04Three percent, yeah. Um which yeah, three percent is the number, like 100% confirmed on the donate.gg website. So yeah, it is a little maybe there's something I'm missing, you know.
SPEAKER_01So who's the found? Do we is the founder doxxed of donate gg? Do we know this person?
SPEAKER_04Yes, yeah, it's leap. Sleep. Um, but yeah, I don't think a lot of people are asking the question, like, where's the three percent go?
SPEAKER_02I think everyone's just like ah, you know, it goes into his pocket, everyone knows where the money goes. We're not like you know, jumping to conclusions there. No, people just it's crypto. Yeah, no one does anything out of the goodness of their fucking heart in this industry. This guy wasn't like, oh, I'm gonna launch a donation website so we can donate all this money and I'm gonna do great for the fucking world. He was like, Oh, I'm gonna try to make money off of this. How can I how can I make money off of charity? And like, that's pretty low, man. I'm not gonna lie.
SPEAKER_01Shame on pump fun for the I'm not gonna lie. Shame on donate GG and shame on Swizzle for buying one of these coins without doing what was going on.
SPEAKER_02I saw the Wishcoin yesterday have like 25 mil in volume and be a two million dollar market gap. And if that's if there's ever a sign of a farm, that's it.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, that's it.
SPEAKER_02Like washing money left and right through it, ripping fees off of it, market making, stealing like this goes back.
SPEAKER_01I mean, guys, this goes back to what we were talking about, where I'm like, this is not the same industry as Bitcoin and Ethereum and Silana. There's not the same industry as people who are even perps trading alts. It's not the same industry. Um, no, it's not and and I think we need to create a separation where people understand that that this is not going away, these types of things, it's gonna be an industry, it's the slot machines of the whatever you want to call it, like, and we need to find a way to separate or you know, and and not have crypto be defined by this. Um because I think there's there is a there is a fundamental difference. Like it's totally different to like even gamble and speculate and perps trade, you know, uh I don't know, chain link or whatever you want. That's fine, it's different than this, you know.
SPEAKER_02Um yeah, and I think you need to decide, you know, what part of the industry you want to be in, but the problem is that historically speaking, this maybe grayer side of the market is where you get asymmetric returns from.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and I knew you were gonna say that, and you're right. You're right.
SPEAKER_02And so it's that's the reality of the situation, and that is where I made the most of my money. I know you guys are in the same boat, so it's you know, it's like the guy that logs into crypto every day just to shit on crypto. Like, I I can't say that I can't hate it. I don't love what it's turning into to uh to some degree. Like, I I the I think the intentions were different at first, at least I like to think so.
SPEAKER_01Um it was just a little more like I don't want to say the veil was off, but like it was a little more like transparent because it was an entertainment ecosystem, right? Now it's like there's a lot more going on. This is like institutionalized extraction, you know?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, it's probably a good way to put it.
SPEAKER_01That's why we don't fully check out because we recognize there may be gains to be made here, and that's a reality.
SPEAKER_02I just don't see that changing though, either. You know, like Sats, you uh a few weeks ago were like, oh, we're gonna be trading in the Zcash trenches this time next year. Um gold boiling. God boiling.
SPEAKER_01But like that would be cool, that would be very cool, actually.
SPEAKER_02The reality situation is like I just keep I I had this horrible. I was saying something earlier in the show. We have to take a hard look at ourselves and think about like where we are as an industry and what we all like traded and made money on the last couple of years, like nothing of substantive value, but like we haven't come up with a new meta since the meme coin supercycle meta. People call the AI thing like the AI meta, but that was just meme coins with a different wrapper, right? Yeah, we have to do that. We have done like nothing that has provided asymmetric returns in multiple years now that has been of any intrinsic value whatsoever.
SPEAKER_01Um, and how do we there is a new there is a new meta that that I don't know if the gains are asymmetric, but people are really they are trading crazy volume on them, and and that's prediction markets. Like that has emerged. It's it's not it's a crossover, it's not all the same people, but like it's it's definitely there's a lot happening there. I mean, is that crazy to say?
SPEAKER_04No, I don't think so. I saw I saw something uh the other day actually, and it was uh the top hyper liquid perp traders like buy wallets are also the top some of the top guys on polymarket and calci. So there's clearly money who is very, very smart and very good playing these markets as well.
SPEAKER_01Um, and it seems they're also paying attention, but it seems like this little cohort of the guys chasing asymmetric returns are not paying attention to it because it's like they can't hit that massive play, I guess, but they can, but I think you know it's it's not the same as a it's not it requires a different type of calculus, it's like you have you have to find an edge in markets of any kind, and you have to figure out how to like arbitrage your edge and and and find a way to exploit your edge. And I think it's just a new system, it's like you know, it's a little bit different than trade in crypto, um, but in a way it's similar.
SPEAKER_02Can you give an example of of of what you mean, Swizzle? Like finding a lot of people.
SPEAKER_01Well, I think like some of these the top polymarket traders, for example. Uh I I read a story about this guy who uh this was back back a couple years ago, um uh during I forget which election it was actually, but like they he basically was trading like every political event outcome, and he made like$300,000 on the on Trump getting elected at the at this election cycle, and made most of the money after it was already known that Trump was winning because he was basically able to like arbitrage across like delayed feeds or whatever, and like basically as soon as had the as soon as he had the information confirmed, he had these ways to get all these different bets at different spreads in and everything. Like that is kind of similar, you know. You think about like uh maybe it's a weird example, but like the you know, DeFi farming and everything that happened back in the day, like some of the same skills are associated with that, where it's like figuring out where you can find a little bit of an information gap, information edge, and then exploit it as quickly as you can before that edge disintegrates. Um I don't know if that if you guys agree with that, if that makes sense, but like I think there's there's things within prediction markets where people who are trading crazy volume are finding a little bit of an edge and um figuring out better ways to like exploit that edge.
SPEAKER_04Yeah. I I I kind of agree. I kind of agree, but it's like it takes a lot of um a lot of brain power, what a lot of people don't have to figure out that said edge because it's not easy, and you're fighting against some of the smartest people in the world, and now you're fighting against AI bots and shit like that who are trying to do the same thing.
SPEAKER_01Um but yeah, I can't is that any is that any different than like um the way people are trading meme coins now? Is it's all wallet tracking and and bundles and trying to get in and out and And you know, liquidity pools and all that stuff. Like it's gotten very complicated if you want to be good. Um, I think there was like a mindset shift because meme coin, the meme coin super cycle was this crazy little phase in life where like you had to dumb yourself down, and it was really simple. It was like buy coin, hold coin longer than people think is rational, and that was how you won. Um, but for most of history, it's been like figuring out ways to operate quick and with an edge and on smaller margins at a and scale that out is typically how people have made gains, right?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, yeah. Yeah, the the mean point soup cycle was very, very different to real it's tough. It it brings us back to the question: do we ever think that sort of market will ever return? Yes, I don't know, man. I don't know.
SPEAKER_01I think you just need frothy market conditions, right? Like, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_04But it's like bringing back it brings us back to Ansom's tweet. Like, is money interested in other things right now? Um like what's gonna get Bitcoin? What's the what's the news story that gets Bitcoin back to 120k? You know, that's the way I look at it right now. That's the way I look at the Bitcoin chart right now. What because it's not stocks ripping to all-time high. We it's not Trump speaking about it anymore. It's what news story brings us back to 120k? Well, right now.
SPEAKER_01Here's the thing though national reserve sentiment is so bad, so bad right now. Yeah, Bitcoin is up 14% on the month.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, true.
SPEAKER_0114% is a lot, right? Like, I know that we're down a lot from all-time highs, I know, but like it's it's not like in the short term over the past 60 days, like it's been this terribly performing asset, like people are making it out to be. Okay, to play devil's advocate here.
SPEAKER_04Last month the stock market went up 11%, and Bitcoin went up what 14 and Bitcoin's meant to be the volatile asset here.
SPEAKER_02And Bitcoin is a volatile asset, relative to that.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, it's yeah, yeah, yeah. It's pulled it's pulled a 14% move while stocks have pulled an 11% move.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, my thing with Bitcoin right now is you're exposing yourself to volatility, and but like your upside uh hasn't been any better than equities.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, this is what I struggle with, huh? Yeah, this is what I struggle with.
SPEAKER_01Well, yeah, look, I hold no Bitcoin, yeah. So I sort of agree with you. But but it's a much harder game. Asset selection is a much harder game.
SPEAKER_02Yes.
SPEAKER_01If you choose the right ones, Zcash is up like 40%. Uh hyperliquid is up uh only 12. I guess that's a bad example. You guys are gonna make Venice token is up. You guys know the VVV, it's like an AI token, it's up 40, 32. So on the year, that's up 500% or something. Sorry, 70%.
SPEAKER_02You said he airdropped me like 40 grand earlier in the year. 30, 20. That was awesome. Um, yeah, I don't know.
SPEAKER_01All I'm saying is maybe maybe it's not Bitcoin, but like there's a there are pockets, there's pockets of outperformance.
SPEAKER_02There's yeah, pockets of outperformance, we're gonna get that, but like there's no path to a meta of any sort that will lead to the type of froth we experienced in DeFi summer, meme coin super cycle era, AI stuff. Like, there's nothing on the horizon that I can even envision coming close to that to provide.
SPEAKER_04But then again, every every bear market is like that. Like, yeah, it was the same sort of thing. But it is in my opinion, it hasn't got to that point yet. In the I feel like it sounds bad. I I just I would like lower Bitcoin, but so would everyone.
SPEAKER_01So, what about this? What about this? When did when is like the anthropic and open AI IPOs?
SPEAKER_04Um, I think anthropic delayed it. Um, I think open AI is planned for like Q3.
SPEAKER_01Okay, so later this year for both, or maybe beginning of next year, like I think next year for anthropic, maybe.
SPEAKER_02Fourth quarter 2026 OpenAI.
SPEAKER_01Okay, so is it I'm not saying this is what's gonna happen, but could it be fair to speculate? Like this is like there's a crazy build-up, and there's everyone like is focused on that up until the point of the IPO. Maybe a couple crazy weeks post-IPO of action, and then a lot of money has been made and realized there.
SPEAKER_03True.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it you guys may be right. Maybe it doesn't go back into crypto, maybe it goes somewhere else. Maybe it stays and doubles down where it's at. But there's always these inflection points in in history and market cycles where massive wealth, generational wealth transfers happen and gains are made. And then there's an excess of like frothy capital, people who are put it's put in their hands where they've never made that type of capital before. And then they want to go put it somewhere else, and there's a rotation of sorts that happens.
SPEAKER_04Um, is that into crypto?
SPEAKER_01I don't know if that's I'm not saying it's into crypto, but it's it's feasible that like this whole thing where all anyone can focus on it's it's only AI, that's the only thing that exists, that's the only thing that's happening. Is it gonna be that way for the rest of time? Like history would say that there's probably gonna be some type of rotation, and there will be a rotation into another area that will that will have you know a big a big uh wealth of the big event, yeah.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I see what you mean. It does make sense. Um, it's just I think it depends where AI is at the time. Like, is AI if AI stagnates between then and now, or is it still like booming as it is now? Um because I think a lot of them are running into problems right now and with how expensive it is. Like, I anthropic is uh obviously spending a lot of fucking cash on keeping servers up, and they're struggling with the amount of users. I don't think open AI is struggling yet, but um yeah, it's uh these businesses take a lot to run, you know, they're expensive. I saw something like he's yeah, he he's that's the I can't remember the number. I don't want to say uh a wrong number, but like the amount they spend a year is just info.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I've got it right, I've got it right here in the notes actually. So like, you know, all of these the Mag 7, they all have their earnings, right? And they all I think they they all beat uh revenue expect they all beat expectations on earnings um and revenue. Uh but the the caveat is like the combined AI capex across these mag 7 companies is approaching like five 500 billion, 600 billion for 2026. So that's the thing where every people can't decide because earnings are justified, like revenue is justified.
SPEAKER_02Like these companies are consistently outperforming expectations, growing rapidly, but their spend is growing rapidly on the manufacturing companies now, but they're not even like like there used to be these tech giants who had like low expenses, tons of revenue per employee, and now it's like they gotta spend all this fucking money for the first time. And how does that affect multiples going forward?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, especially when RAM and these community these computer parts, what they actually rely on, are just skyrocketing. Like I think I you guys might not see this the most, but I used to like build a lot of PCs and shit, like real nerd shit back in the day.
SPEAKER_02Don't surprise me based on the Rubik's Cube if we're being yeah, there you go.
SPEAKER_04And uh yeah, the the RAM I used to put in my computer even three or four years ago used to cost me$200, and now that same RAM's costing me like$800. So it is actually insane. Like and you gotta think that's a consumer product. Like a lot of people just go buy on Amazon, and it's just now priced a lot of people out of even owning a computer, let alone owning a AI subscription that costs$200 a month already. You now have to pay for the RAM to put in your own PC, and you gotta buy this expensive ass software and computers to actually fucking run it. Um yeah, crazy.
SPEAKER_02Uh, you know what? We're all just gonna start rotating into fish-headed Asians who uh have tiny cannons, right? This is insane. This is my favorite story. So many goods, so many good memes. So many good news. It was so good. I know everyone's been talking about it. Um, but the line, I bet your little Asian fish head wife doesn't have these cannons, is the funniest thing I've ever read in my goddamn life.
SPEAKER_01This is Tradfi, folks.
SPEAKER_04This is Tradfy. This fits the narrative, you know. This fits the narrative of what everyone thinks uh like investment banking's like. Like they all were like, Oh, yeah, it's this crazy internal thing, and then now people are gonna see the story and be like, We were right. Umsane man.
SPEAKER_02There was that. I mean, saying his balls didn't taste like curry, um like little what is the context of that?
SPEAKER_01I'm a little confused how that came up.
SPEAKER_02He was Indian, yeah. He was an Indian guy. He was Indian, so there were tons of Indian jokes in this, and apparently the guy, it was all bullshit, and the guy was some married dude who got fired or something and uh threw a bullshit. Oh, it's not true? No, it's not true at all. What? Um yeah, it wasn't true.
SPEAKER_01Oh, I thought this was all real.
SPEAKER_02I thought it was real. It's real, but none of it actually happened. This guy made it all up. But did he? Allegedly. Allegedly.
SPEAKER_04I don't know. Seems pretty like it to me, you know. I like the story. Sometimes you call it the truth get away, get in the way of the story.
SPEAKER_02It's like it's like he wrote like an erotica novel and then was like some R. It was like performance art for him. But did you guys also see Brian Johnson, the like life guy who wants to live forever, post posted the uh microbiology report of his wife's vagina? Sabac and then tweeted out I just like I just had oral sex with her and then tweeted out their microbiology report saying it was like the most pristine vagina of all vaginas out there. Top one percent, top one percent vagina, top one percent. And then Henry, pull up pull up this last tweet because this is my favorite tweet.
SPEAKER_04Is that gonna start being the flex? Like, is that gonna be like the flex, like yo, my wife? Top one percent, bro.
SPEAKER_01Like, top one percent, but then look at the I don't know if a lot of people are on the same page as Brian Johnson.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, look at this ball look at this ball noer report though. Bullnoer report just combining two stories, the two tweets into one. Imagine during the microbiome report with the picture of the JP Morgan woman with cannons. Wait, so this woman didn't this woman didn't do any of this stuff? No, but I like to think she did. Imagine being out there, imagine being imagine being the guy and and having to go and say you cried because she was like making she was like a good looking woman. Yeah, I don't think anyone is gonna be crying over any of this.
SPEAKER_04I saw loads of people like uh like I'm gonna start applying for JP Morgan, bro. Get me in the fucking get me in JP.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, crazy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't know, man. Um, anyways, I'd love that tweet. Um, cool. Uh that's all I got, guys. Um good chatting today. Uh we'll be back Tuesday, 12 o'clock Eastern. Let's hope Bitcoin goes to 150k in one candle this weekend.
SPEAKER_01That'd be great. I'm here for that. As long as our as long as our altcoins go along with them. Specifically Asteroid.
SPEAKER_02Specifically Asteroid. Yeah, I I hope so too. I'm wishing you guys luck. Good luck. Good luck on Asteroid. I'll be there cheerleading you from the sidelines. Um all right, thanks guys. Uh, we'll be back Tuesday. Uh go check out FOMO and their new web app today. Um, promo code RISCON, download it. Um play with it, trade with it. Just don't trade charity coins. Um, and we'll be back. Sweet guys.