Risk On Podcast
Risk On with Wood, Sats, and Swizzle. Twice a week we cover the biggest stories in markets, macro, and everything in between. From crypto to equities to whatever's ripping this week.
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Risk On Podcast
Vibe Shift | EP 62
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Covering:
• BTC flat while on-chain rips
• ZEC is going vertical
• Cards fully retraced after unlocks
• SpaceX IPO coming in at $2.2T
And more.
Yo yo yo, good afternoon. Risk on, episode 62, brought to you by FOMO. Go download it today. Go use the uh web app, which is which is stellar, might I add. Uh use promo code RISCON for 10% off uh all of your trading fees today. Um and uh check it out. Uh how is everyone doing?
SPEAKER_02Amazing, folks. Amazing. I'm hearing on chain is ripping hard, and I'm only an asteroid, which uh not ripped.
SPEAKER_00We thought we were right, man. We thought we were right, and yeah, would Wood is getting not the last laugh, but he's currently getting the laugh right now.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Yeah, definitely not the last one. Let's not give him Murdy credit here. Um I'm still due a lot.
SPEAKER_00We're we're back to that that healthy range.
SPEAKER_01You know, simulation Ansom said the best thing to do would be for it to range between 100 and 300 for a little bit. Healthy little consolidate. He did say that. I would say that make you feel better about about your underwater bag. That's fake. You know, the chance looks salvageable.
SPEAKER_02I think you know, that's not a good word. Uh that's not a good word. Every time I've heard that about a chart, I'm in it, usually the arse falls out of it. Uh, salvageable is not the word I want to hear before I look at that chart.
SPEAKER_00Uh what's the saying we're supposed to use when when volume just dies and we say, oh, volume needs to trickle down before the next move up or whatever? Because everyone clearly left and they're trading somewhere else. There's a lot of things they're trading. They're not trading this coin. You know, they're trading.
SPEAKER_02My bags, that's for sure. Yeah. That is for sure.
SPEAKER_01Um boring. Henry's gonna pull up this chart just so you guys can see all the space beneath where you are and it's next level of support. Oh shit.
SPEAKER_00The next level of support doesn't really exist. Can you zoom in? Just zoom in a lot, please. Just zoom in.
SPEAKER_02Can they send this shit to fucking balls already?
SPEAKER_00Like, can they send this out of the way? There's not much room down there, yeah.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, man. So, guys, again, how many times do I need to express this to everybody? Coins that are heavily reliant on one person or one thing are not coins you want to be in. I don't want to hear it, bro.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I just don't want to hear it. This is Elon, bro. It's different. This is different. This is different. This is a this time is different 100%.
SPEAKER_01I'm just saying, as somebody who lost their leg and part of their arm on Dark MAGA back in the day. Oh, that was a bad one.
SPEAKER_00You know, we we thought this was the start of a movement here, and this would ignite the next leg of the bull. Or we we told ourselves that. Now some regret is being felt, but we're still hanging on to hope.
SPEAKER_01But I hope that our boy Print is listening to me, who would just hate every word coming out of my mouth right now. He'd be seething at it. Um but yeah, you know, I I I I I hope I hope it works out for you guys, seriously.
SPEAKER_00We'll see soon. It's either a McDonald's uh McDonald's or a W.
SPEAKER_02We'll see soon. I just saw I just saw how much I was down. I just flicked open the wallet. Um I don't like the look of that at all.
SPEAKER_00You can't be down that much. I feel like this is where you this is where you entered, pretty much, right?
SPEAKER_02Um, no, I think my entry was a little bit higher than I thought. Uh you know what happens, guys.
SPEAKER_01You buy, you go up 15, 20, you're feeling like you're on top of the world. Next thing you know, fries in the bag, bro.
SPEAKER_00Are we are we feeling a little bit that way on another coin, perhaps? Oh what uh are could we potentially be feeling that way on another coin, perhaps? The one uh the big one?
SPEAKER_01The big one, your big one, your privacy one?
SPEAKER_00No, I'm talking about uh Bitcoin. Michael Sailor coin, as we like to call it.
SPEAKER_01Um Sailor coin. Sailor, I mean, today, you know, I I don't know how I feel. All I know is it's coins are down, SP equities, all that stuff's down today. Inflation, and then it's because uh uh inflation came in hot, right? Um you know, Warsh and Trump are hell bent on cutting rates. How can you do that with hot inflation? Um Americans feel terrible about their finances. Anytime I talk to anybody outside of crypto, they feel like they're poor and like the world is going to shit. If you haven't, I I saw a treat by a tweet by Geiger Capital today that said if you are not making 30% more than you were making pre-COVID, you're losing money. Like in any other world, you get a 30% raise over four years, you're fucking thrilled. In in our world, in the real world, you've had to have had a wage increase of 30% just to be making the same amount of money you were before. So like people are making these huge wage increases, but they're spending all of it. Um, people are poor, man.
SPEAKER_02Um one owns these beautiful stocks or reputations.
SPEAKER_01No one owns these beautiful stocks. Yeah, nor like normal people don't have equity exposure that's gonna significantly uh that is per that is bringing their wealth up to a level that it needs to be. They're just relying on their W-2 wages. Uh they're fiat miners, as we used to call them back in the day.
SPEAKER_00Fiat miners. I like that.
SPEAKER_01That's a good one, right? It's a good one. Back in DeFi summer, we we coined that one. But um, you know, I don't know. Um I I I am generally bearish. Equities feel frothy to me. I'm feeling euphoria in all of my equity bags. I feel like I felt when Trump coin came out right now. Just like everything is up. I'm like about to start like spending money like crazy. Money's not an issue. Equities are just vertical. Um, some people think this is the start of a bubble, and you should just man the fuck up and bid into this green candle.
SPEAKER_02Uh what bubble? Definitely not crypto bubble, tell you that. Um, yeah, crypto bubble's definitely not here. The AI bubble, maybe. Um, but yeah, no one in crypto owns any anything related to AI. Um, definitely not crypto, bubble, tell you that.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, definitely not. Bitcoin, I don't know. Sailor bought 800 million today and the chart's going down.
SPEAKER_02It's not a good look. Not a good look. Not a good look.
SPEAKER_00Um now when you say down, you're you're saying it went from like it went down like 0.7% or something like that. Like we're still hanging on above 80k. I think what what would be the actual um like where's the legitimate area of concern?
SPEAKER_02I would say 78k.
SPEAKER_00There's a range break either direction right now.
SPEAKER_02I would say 78k. Losing 78k would be a bad look. But the the disastrous look on on the daily is losing 75.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I was gonna say I've seen 78, I've seen 76. A lot of people say 76, someone says 75.
SPEAKER_02Uh I'm saying I'm saying we lose. We if we lose 78, we're going to 75. If we lose 75, it's over. It's done. Um, we're back. We're back to death and despair on the Bitcoin chart.
SPEAKER_00But and on the flip side, we're looking at what 83 again, um 85, 86, 90.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, above above above 8.5. Above 8.5 is is is is the glory days. It's the glory days, and we're looking at 90s, we're looking at 95s after that.
SPEAKER_01Honestly, I'm not seeing very many people bearish on the timeline right now. I'm bearish. Feels like you're bearish, I'm bearish.
SPEAKER_00Check back in later today because all as you know, all it takes is one green day to have 99% of crypto Twitter euphoric, and it takes one red day for them to immediately all flip back to this is the biggest scam the world has ever seen, and it's going to 37k.
SPEAKER_01All we're seeing is is the whole timeline arrogantly being bullish. Like, I told you so, it's a foregone conclusion, number go up, we're gonna catch up to equities, like you're a fucking sidelined idiot bear. Like people, you know, I think I think I think people are very confident that it's a conclusion that we're gonna go up more.
SPEAKER_00Now, remember, part of that is because nobody here holds any Bitcoin, ourselves included, uh, I believe. And in fairness, uh, whether whether it proves to be kind of like a just a little bit of a um like a a bull uh bull trap type of situation, or that's gonna lead to a flush or not, like on-chain has legitimately, at least I would say in comparison to the past few months, has been hot. Like, there's definitely more money circulating on-chain than there's been in a long time. I think expectations were so low, it's really still a ball of a singular ball of money that's moving around from coin to coin. There's not a ton of sustainability, but like there's definitely action that's been happening. I think we're gonna get in. We got to talk about a bunch of that. But like, yes, we did we have whispered in a couple smaller group chats, we've said usually when all of these old coins start pumping randomly together, is that a good or a bad sign? Usually it's a very, very bad sign. Usually that's about that. Most people are like cautiously optimistic. And then you got the people on the timeline who just decided they're full bowl. But like, it's definitely historically not a great sign when all these 2023 meme coins all of a sudden have 50% pumps at the same time, and then we all think there's gonna be continuation on all of them. Probably not gonna be the case. Yeah, but some of them could, or some new ones could be. I love when we do this.
SPEAKER_01I love when we do this.
SPEAKER_00There is there is money on chain that wasn't there, so that's a good thing, I think.
SPEAKER_02Um, you know, I actually you see these old coins pump, and then you see all like the old relic guys who still are still somehow holding this coin.
SPEAKER_00They come out of the oh my god, guys. The question is, have they been posting the whole time and now the algorithm hits, or or they just they just wake up from hibernation and no, they still post, they still post.
SPEAKER_02There's guys out there, I promise you. There's guys out there who go meet you to a billion. Like there is there's still guys out there. There's there's alpha alfies of the world, and there's a hundred of them.
SPEAKER_01Dude, I got a DM from a Fog guy the other day.
SPEAKER_02Oh wow, what was he saying?
SPEAKER_01Jump back in, we're jumping back into Fuog. The the pond is warm, he said.
SPEAKER_02The pond is I haven't heard that in a long time. The only thing warm is cabana's pockets from the Binance listing.
SPEAKER_01Exactly. Um, yeah, so I I got that DM, but um, I did see this guy Lyx, who was a big an unk. He was tweeting that he was in troll, he had like one percent of it or whatever, and he sold it at the lows because he gave up, and then he was devastated. And I enjoyed seeing that, like honesty at least, versus so many other people who have been like cheerleading troll like and been quiet about it, and they're like, Oh, I'm still in it, like fuck yeah. I did appreciate him be like, yeah, sold at the lows. I thought it was fucking dead. That's what any normal sane person would have done. Um yeah, I I I love that coin. I made a lot of money on that coin, but I am I am sidelined here. Um I think this is a scam crime pump, useless pumping, troll pumping. Um what else is pumping? Anything else? Old and dead, fart coin pumping.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, these are these are leverage, these are all leverage plays, right? These are perps listed coins. It's gotta be mostly mostly perps that's driving it.
SPEAKER_01Probably.
SPEAKER_00Or or it's just like, yeah, the there's probably a group of people that were really focused on this for the last couple months. They noticed an opportunity, they had some supply control. How long how sustainable is that? Like, actually, troll did some pretty real volume.
SPEAKER_01The one thing about this that I don't like is that it's like there's no skill involved in being in this, right? Like, no, there's no skill. Like, how can you like it's all like how would how was I suppose like I guess the one thing that is talent-based is like we saw people piling into troll at like 40-50 million because they said, Okay, there's vote, there's real volume here. There's pattern recognition.
SPEAKER_00They knew pattern recognition before it. They've seen in the past what happens. I think like the one I don't to be honest, I think like but I still think from a process standpoint, buying troll at 50 million was kind of an egregious thing to do. It worked, but I don't, I don't think it was like a super like process driven, justifiable choice. Now, if you had seen troll pump to 140 million or whatever it did, I do think if you had said, okay, what's the next logical thing that happens? And I feel like in retrospect, the three of us all should have seen this, go buy useless, right? It's probably gonna, it's people are gonna, they've always equated those two. Like that would be a skill-based decision that I think would have made a lot of sense to do. I don't know where it's at now, but it definitely pumped like 70%. Uh, and that was all after troll. That's like pattern recognition that I think as a trader, shame on us for not seeing it. It's a little bit obvious. Um, but the first one, the first like coin that just wakes up out of nowhere. I I don't see how you just pile into that and after everything that's happened the last six months and assume it's gonna keep going up, you know.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I love that whenever some of this happens and you see like the second mover effects, like useless pumping here. It's so fucking obvious in hindsight, and I I never make the trade. Yeah, it's truly another.
SPEAKER_00But but like we'll literally talk about it. I think I'm in two group chats with you where we all said, Oh, useless, I'll probably pump next. And it did like a lot. Like you could have, I don't know how liquid it is, but you could have like legitimately semi-sized into that and and made a really good trade, and we all literally said it, but none of us made the trade.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, none of us made the trade. And the downside effect of troll and useless pumping is asteroids getting vamped. So you guys don't like this.
SPEAKER_02Not ideal, man. Not ideal at all.
SPEAKER_00The the only hope is you actually like this is where you know, we were the old adage, like respect the pump, is legitimately the only thing you can hope for in this case is I hope people made money doing all this. I hope, I hope people profited, and it wasn't like everyone chased in and then they all got smoked. Um, because that can create like a little mini like wealth effect on-chain where then you know the next thing that comes on has a little a bit higher of a ceiling, and then the next thing is a little bit higher of a ceiling. That is typically how on-chain bulls start, I feel like, is there's some it has to be something more significant than what just happened, but there's some type of like progressive chain reaction of of wealth effects where where people have wins repeatedly, and then it kind of creates a culture of you can hold something a little bit longer, whatever. We're not we're not really there yet, right now. Um, because most of the times with these types of pumps, people are 90% of people are losing money on this, yeah.
SPEAKER_02And most people didn't catch the useless pump. So and then they're now chasing, they probably just bought the top of troll and they're now down. Right. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01My thing here, back to this like skill-based thing that I struggle with, and I struggled this with this too when we had that other uh relief pump. I think it was from like 90 to like 105 or whatever it was, over it was like six months ago or so, or right before right, right before 1010 happened. We had some like relief pump, I remember, and then 1010 happened. And it was the same shit pumping. It was troll, it was useless, it was fart coin, it was old memes, popcat, whatever. And it just felt like we were gambling. Like it didn't feel like there was any like there was any edge. I mean, I didn't have any edge at the time. Any of the edge that I had in AI season or meme coin season was not, I couldn't translate that to what was happening. Like I wasn't a perps trader, I wasn't a chart trader, so it was really hard for someone like me, and the trenches were kind of like dried up or whatever. Um, and it was really hard, and I feel that way again right now. I feel like if you're an on-chain guy, um a lot of what's happening is kind of hard, unless you're I at least for me it is. Um people now that said, like VVV ripped, so you can say, okay, well, what's VVV? What's the next thing off of that? But it's all secondary movers that you need to be catching and looking for from the main runner. So VVV had pod, right? Um, but it feels like even though there have been opportunities, it's kind of been hard mode still. I don't know how you guys feel like that.
SPEAKER_00I do want to talk about I want to talk about the VVV pod thing because to me, that is I think we can abstract that to talk about it as real trading that occurred here. Um, compared to like what we were just talking about. Like, I think we're making an observation, but it's everything you just said, would, where it's like that's not, you know, there's not a lot of skill based in it. The skill is like wallet tracking and bundling and supply, like it's a different game. And I think what's interesting with VVV, I've I don't know about you guys, I think Wood, you you've been the same as me, were like staring at the chart since it was at like six bucks and haven't bought because it felt like it had pumped too much.
SPEAKER_01Yep.
SPEAKER_00But what what I like about this one and is really encouraging to me is like a lot of crypto is narrative trading historically. Identify narratives that are gonna pick up steam, that have an ability to create more speculation, or have the potential to be something real, and you identify that early. That absolutely is what VVV and Venice AI is. And like we're at that stage now where it's like, okay, now you have to make a decision. Has this pumped so much and I'm chasing if I go in? Or is this shit real? Like, because what the what we're talking about is like private uncensored AI, like they're basically trying to create the chat like a private, uncensored chat GPT that's democratized for everyone to use. Then you have to figure out, okay, where does the token play into that? Does the token actually have value accrual here? Because that's a fucking insane narrative. Like, that's like something that you can get really excited about, or you go into the deeper levels and eventually elements of that narrative probably get picked apart and broken up, and then you're gonna have some type of retrace. But like anyone who identified that, like because of the liquidity conditions, there was a huge opportunity where you could have been a week late, two weeks late, even three weeks late now, and still made a great trade. And and you could justify chasing into it because of the narrative associated with it. Um, and now we talk about that pod. I you know, I don't know a ton. There was an article written about it, but like this dolphin token that's basically like something, some underlying mechanism that's connected to the the the VVV token. And none of us caught it again, but like I think if you were really paying attention, you started to read up on that, you could understand why people would jump in and chase that. Like the whole thing makes sense, and I I like I want to see more of that happen in the space and less of the wallet tracking, like we're in this because so-and-so is gonna shill it or whatever, you know.
SPEAKER_02I just looked at the VVV chart for the first time in a while, and Jesus, yeah, mental shit.
SPEAKER_00I mean, one and I wanted to buy at like eight bucks, and we decided we were chasing, you know? Yeah, I felt like I was chasing, man.
SPEAKER_01I think, and then I guess this kind of leads us into uh Gainesy had a really good uh thing that Swizzle, you and I liked, and I think this is this is impacting me and probably why Swizzle and I both felt that we were chasing there. And um, I'll just read out. He said the easiest way to miss gains is by having uh battered bull syndrome, where you either don't buy the uh obvious coins or you sell them too soon. You can't get lucky and make it on a home run play. And I think for me, I have battered bull syndrome right now. Um like these coins are obvious. Vvv was an obvious narrative, is an obvious narrative. Ton when that first got bought by Telegram. That was an obvious narrative that a buck ten, even though it had pumped, like there was a multiple there to be had, and it was free. It was free money sitting on the table right in front of you. Um, and I think not just us, but a lot of people out there are sitting there being like, fuck, like, can I buy all this in? It's already pumped. Um, whereas back in the day, I would just blast into green candles, I didn't care. Like, my like whole my trading philosophy was I'm a fucking top blaster at heart. Like, I never bought bottoms, I would always buy tops and hope for continuation. Um do you guys relate to what he's saying here at all?
SPEAKER_02Um, yes, and no, I just don't really feel FOMO in this market. Like, I don't I don't feel FOMO at all. So I don't feel like I ever miss these pumps because I'm like, nah, you know what? Like, I don't really care because in the bull market, like this this is gonna be nothing, you know. Like, I feel like the only people who really, really miss these ones is like the ones who really, really need it. Like they feel this, I they spend all day waiting for these shit and then they miss it. Like, you know, I'm not really waiting. I'm not sitting around waiting all day. I'm just gonna I'm just waiting until condition conditions are good and I'll show up on chain and um hopefully perform a generational knee slide. But you know, I'm not really asked about missing a ton two X, three X. Like how much was it? Like two and a half X. Yeah, two and a half, like I I don't really care, you know. Um but I don't know. I I guess that would that would affect me a lot mentally if I was literally here all day, every day, going, I need to catch these runs.
SPEAKER_00Like Yeah. I mean that it depends though. I think there's also an element of that, like I what you're referring to is like the crazy 2023 meme coin days where there was 50 to 100 X's just sitting there that you could size into. Like I don't know if that's coming back in that fashion. I just don't know. But like, man, a two to three X in in a few days is or a week is pretty insane returns. If you're talking about something that's liquid enough, you can size into, relatively speaking. So, you know, I I think like Gainesy's got a point where it's like the the way people are conditioned is so crazy right now, yeah. Um that I could easily see either side of it. Like, you're probably smart for not having FOMO and like not wanting to try to chase into any of this stuff. But at the same time, there's an argument to be made that that Gainesy's saying that I think would and I kind of agree with a little bit, which is like the PTSD that everyone feels right now is kind of what creates the opportunity in these types of moments, also. If you have the balls to kind of like relinquish it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, definitely. I I I kind of feel like the people that are victory lapping right now, and I tweeted this. Uh Henry pulled it up. It's that a lot of people that are victory lapping right now are the guys that SAS dead fucking need it. The guys that round trip their coins from 120 to 60 are down bad and are here every day, and they're fucking victory lapping over catching a couple of multiples. Um it's like a desperation victory laptop. Yeah, yeah, exactly. I think that to some degree. Now that's not saying there isn't real money to be made here, because there certainly is. Um but it's not on easy mode at all. Still, um, there is money to be made, um, and you get paid to be early, right? But like do we feel like putting a lot of capital to work at this specific moment is smart still in crypto? I I just don't know.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't think so.
SPEAKER_01Especially when you look at like the Zec chart, which right now if Zek doesn't make a new high guys, I think you guys are dead.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean I I think you're bull market over for Zek. I think someone's been reading a few too many uh R89 tweets. Someone's been focused on Rex's timeline because I actually think that's a crazy statement to make. Yeah. Like, hang on, let's let's actually pull up the chart because that's an insane statement to make.
SPEAKER_02I don't think so. I don't think I think I think this this narrative survives. This is a one hour.
SPEAKER_00Pull up the daily or the weekly.
SPEAKER_02It's just based on Bitcoin, isn't it? I don't think it's based on Zach.
SPEAKER_00But but that's my point. So so Rex said this too. He said if it doesn't, if it doesn't like basically immediately break through uh the November all-time highs, then it's topped for a decade, he said. And I've actually seen a lot of people starting. Top for a decade. That is an obscene statement. It is going to be related to bit if Bitcoin loses 80k and it goes down, yeah, Zec's gonna go down too. The the problem is like if you treat like I know there's memetics to all this, but if you treat this thing like it's you know uh a new pair like launch on pump fund, then yes, like the the thing is gonna go down a lot if Bitcoin goes down at this point. Probably, maybe, although if you look at the ZecBTC chart, it probably looks pretty good. Um these things take time to play out, but like there's there's not a better narrative in in crypto right now. And like the thing pumped what 80 nine, 80, 90 percent this month. Like, I think it would be reasonable for it to cool off, and that doesn't mean that the narrative's dead if it cools off a little bit.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't think it's topped for the decade.
SPEAKER_00I don't think it could retra it could retrace all the way to like 400 bucks and it the narrative would be fine and the chart would be intact.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, but you guys know as well as I do that price drives narrative. This one this time's different, bro. Z C narrative wasn't so great at 200 bucks. I actually still believe. I don't think so. I don't think it changed.
SPEAKER_00I think I think there I think there's a lot of people who like to, you know, like to be like the short term, like they call a victory lap one direction and they say it's over, it's like they'll be right for like 30 days and then they'll be wrong again. Um I just think making gross overreact over exaggerations, like if this thing doesn't do this right now, like if it doesn't pump another 200% in the next three days, it's cooked, man. I I can't buy into that. I think that's crazy. Um I think there's a little there's a little sideline wood uh influence on this.
SPEAKER_02A little bit.
SPEAKER_01Let's go in for the intergalactic top on Zcash, intergalactic all-time top on Zcash because I sold my bag around what are the things sold like 450 or so on that on that.
SPEAKER_00And here's the thing I'm like I'm holding right now, I'm holding my whole position. Sats is holding his whole position. Yeah, if it retraces to what are we at right now, like 550 bucks. If it goes, if it goes below like 450 bucks, 400 bucks, people are gonna be calling us idiots, man. They're gonna be like, Yeah, you guys should have known that was the permitop. Like, like you round trip the bag, it's never coming back. And sure, I would be like, damn, I probably should have like shaved some off, but would that change anything for you, Sats?
SPEAKER_02Uh no. No, I am uh it's one of them bags. I'm just I'm just fully committed to. I don't really care about the price, you know. I'm literally in for the intergalactic highs or the intergalactic glows. Um, you're going XPL mode on this three years. I'm going XPL mode, you know. I'm going to which means you sell next week. I actually don't like honestly. I don't like I held through like nearly the whole retrace back to break even. I'm happy with sitting on this bag if it goes fucking minus 50%, minus 60%. I don't like I this is one of them ones that like I think it's a narrative winner, so I'm happy to just sit on it forever. Like either I either win big or I just I take the loss. Um I don't know. I don't really view these as trades. I don't really view this as trades. It's like I'm just happy, so content in like I just move it to a different wallet and I'm like I don't even know it's gone. Like I'm just like, oh, it's gone. It's already gone, so I'm gonna sit in the sit in the bag. But this is this is like how I hit a lot of like meme coin plays. Like I held on to popcat for fucking ages and ages and ages.
SPEAKER_01Popcat is my biggest regret of the meme coin cycle. I had half a percent of popcat and I got shaken the fuck out of it at a decent at like a at like a decent number. Um, I think on the pump, it pumped I I held it until it hit like 360 or 380, and then it retraced that down to like 100 or something. Yeah, it was the most vicious hold of anything in any meme coin this cycle. I I had to get it. Anyone who held Popcat is sick in that.
SPEAKER_00By the way, I love how I love how Sats is trying to back me up. I'm like making a semi-serious argument, and Sats is like, yeah, man, same here, it's not even a trade. This is an investment. It's kind of like Popcat.
SPEAKER_02It's kind of like Popcat. It's kind of like Popcat. That was the integral, that was the intergalactic hold. You want to talk about fucking holds? Popcat is the one. Popcat is the like I literally I held that shit from like two mil or like five mil or something. Um, held through all the retracers back to like four, like, yeah, I sat in that coin since like I remember I bought Popcat a lot on Christmas Day 2023. Um and yeah, I I I literally didn't sell uh didn't sell until like I didn't sell a coin until like half a bill.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, that's what you said it you said it yourself, this was a well, this is all narrative trading. Popcats the same thing.
SPEAKER_00Cat coins, cat coins were gonna catch up to dog coins, well privacy at the time, at the time there was there was a big case to be made for cat coins, I guess, right? The state of the world. It was the state of the world, you know. It was the state of the world, yeah.
SPEAKER_01Um intergalactic top on Zec. Sats is gonna hold through it all. This is gonna be his popcat round two moment. Uh in other news, Roaring Kitty got hacked last night. Yeah, and um our boy Swizzle was stoked. He bought the coin. Uh he pulled it up. Swizzle shills, we are rich. When was the last time something completely absurd like this happened and ran this hard, anyways? And one minute later, one minute the hacker comes down, red candle all the way to zero, swizzles, swizzle panic sells, only for it to fully recover and start running, anyways.
SPEAKER_00To be fair, I to be fair, just to be clear, I was saying when was the last time something completely absurd happened? I was saying it was obviously like a hack and a scam. Like I was not thinking, oh my god, Rory, Roaring Kitty is back. Like I knew that, um, but I bought anyways just a little rope bag. It was it was a small bag.
SPEAKER_02I love the we are rich in full caps.
SPEAKER_00And by the way, the rope bag was up like 4x. And then I was actually I had my I was hovering over the mouse. Maybe if it was the new FOMA mouse, I would execute it.
SPEAKER_02There you go.
SPEAKER_00Um but I didn't have the old mouse pad, and I was hovering over the sell button. I was about to clip out for like a 3x gain, and then I just saw this red candle drop like the old days, and then I thought back in the chat and it was like, oh, this is deleted. If I hadn't gone in and typed We Are Rich, I would have actually sold for the lesson in that. Yeah, I had to gloat though.
SPEAKER_01Swizzle was too busy uh knee sliding to sell. Yeah, the lesson is always fill fill before shell. Yeah, we won't.
SPEAKER_00And I guess on the back end, sell before you one click, uh one click full stack out before before knee slide.
SPEAKER_01But this coin's crazy, man. 44, 45 million dollars in volume, and like crazy.
SPEAKER_00Who's buying it? I think like real volume too. Like real volume.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I don't know. Not like Pump Fun market maker volume.
SPEAKER_00I don't know. I don't think so.
SPEAKER_02There's nothing worse than Pump Fun market maker volume. There's nothing.
SPEAKER_00You know that when you see it, right? You know that when you see it. I think it's real. I think people just came in and were I don't know who, but money came out of thin air there. All of a sudden, it was 50 million dollars of liquid capital. I don't know. You did see a bunch of these other charts, uh, Solana tokens get vamped by it. Yeah, we did.
SPEAKER_01We did see vamping. Yeah, I mean it's 7 million right now. People are still into it. Um our boy Trevor Cheddar. His thesis is that uh Ryan Kitty is gonna come and CTO this coin.
SPEAKER_02Oh, okay. That makes a lot of sense. Trevor now does work for Pump Fun. Um yeah, that might, you know, that might play a part in it. I don't want to throw some accusations out there. Trevor does work for Pump Fun, so um yeah, he might just be like, guys, this is going to a trillion dollars. Watch the chart move. Well, yeah, watch the chair, watch the chart. Watch the chart. It's it's a dudas, it's a dudas like thing. Guys, just look at the chart.
SPEAKER_01It's going up. Um but on a different on-chain coin, Swizzle, you're a goblin bull now, too, right?
SPEAKER_00Uh I'm I'm dabbling, I'm dabbling on chain. You're a back on chain. I can't. I'm gonna be careful talking about this stuff. I'm not here to show any tokens. And also, uh, I've noticed anytime I buy a token or say that I hold one, there's immediate, just aggressive red candles. Like 20 to 40, sometimes 60% red candles within two minutes of me buying with all my walls are tagged. So I'm not gonna, I'm actually not gonna talk about any of the coins I'm actively in because uh the axiom and what is the pump fun one called? Padre. They're all over me, man. Uh so no, I am not I'm not in that wood.
SPEAKER_01You're not in that?
SPEAKER_00Um no, nope. Not in any not in any tokens on chain currently for public token.
SPEAKER_01Well, why? Is is is it because whenever you so uh uh last time we talked about this, somebody said to us that whenever Swizzle buys a token, it's like stealing candy from a baby.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's not a good one. As would be evidenced by the 60% red candles associated with all my buys.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, taking it. They might they must view your wallet as a top signal now. They must go, oh Swizzle's in.
SPEAKER_00They're not wrong. It's a it's a good thesis for them to have.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you need to change wallets, man.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I mean I I do. I I have i privacy cash fund some wallets, but at the same time, there's like a little bit of uh ego still associated with like, you know what? Let them know, let them see it. I don't care. Yeah, yeah. It hasn't worked, hasn't worked well though.
SPEAKER_01Oh man. Um I don't know. Um what else? Uh did you guys are you guys uh watch guys? Sat, you're you're you're a watch guy. We have to talk about this.
SPEAKER_02The A piece watch?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we have to. Briefly.
SPEAKER_02Um you know what? I would you're an AP guy.
SPEAKER_01I have I do have a royal oak. I have an end I I I have an entry-level royal oak.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I I think uh it's an interesting one. I did review, I did, I did like read something from one of the watch guys. I don't know how true this is, I haven't verified it, but I did see that AP had a IP case in the US and Europe over the raw oak shape, and they ended up losing it. So it meant anyone could copy the raw oak shape on any watch. Um, because it was too generic, that's what the courts team does. I once again I didn't verify this, was what from someone on watch Twitter uh had a lot of likes, so I'm gonna take that as gospel. Um, but their idea was like, look, we're gonna front run everyone trying to copy the shape of the royal oak and we're gonna do it ourselves. Um and this is the best way to do it. But man, I just I don't think it's the way to go for a luxury brand like AP. Um I do I does this hammer AP prices, you know. I'm not I'm not that clued up on the watch market, I don't think so, but maybe. Uh I see everyone trying to panic sell their APs now, kind of. So I don't know, man. Not a good like look at these. They are pretty sick.
SPEAKER_01I kind of like the black one.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I kind of like them. Yeah, I do like them. But like historically, one of the most expensive APs to wear, like expensive raw looks to wherever grace the fucking face of the planet has been the blue ceramic AP. You know, what this looks awfully similar. This looks awfully similar to the blue ceramic. Um and yeah, the ceramic, like the white ceramic as well has been has been a very, very expensive piece. So yeah, I don't know. I think there's I think they're gonna be going for like 500 bucks and retail, they're gonna go for yeah, retail, and I think they'll probably resell for like two or three K in the end.
SPEAKER_00But is this like a limited edition, or they're just gonna churn them out, like as many as they want?
SPEAKER_01Limited, it'll be a limited edition.
SPEAKER_00It'll be a limited edition, yeah.
SPEAKER_02It depends how many they lock. Like the the the smart the smart thing to do is do like a thousand units, two or like ten thousand units, limited to that, only only that. Um, because then you can buy them for 500, but the resale might be absolutely insane.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, they're not doing that though. They're not doing that, yeah. They're trying to make money off this.
SPEAKER_01Um, yeah, I I don't know. I'm not gonna panic sell my royal oak. I almost did, you know, crypto Twitter will make you think that you own a Royal Oak, you're just like a poor basic crypto bro. Yeah, and then you like go into the real world. I was telling my um a uh buddy of mine um that I was thinking about selling it, and he was like, dude, why would you do why would you ever do that? That's the coolest watch you have. And um, he he has a he's he's like a consultant, he makes good money, he has a couple nice watches himself, and that was his take. And I was like, Oh my god, we live in this ridiculous crypto bubble where people think that like royal oaks are for fucking poor people and that date justs are like entry-level watches when like any normal person that they got themselves a date just would be like the proudest thing in the world they ever got. And we're here like making tweets. I I quote tweeted this and said as a joke, like, great, now I have something to pair with my black bay. Um, which to me was funny, but like to any other normal person would be so ridiculous to say, and so uh arrogance. It's like a five thousand dollar tutor watch. Yeah. But I've watched I actually think a black bay is a beautiful watch. Like I would wear a black bay. Uh the watch market, don't hedge, don't hedge now. Don't hedge now.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, he's backing up, he's backing up straight away. I think the the watch market though is in an interesting spot though, because uh especially the luxury watch market is because the fakes have gotten so so so good that no one can ever tell now. No one can ever tell. Like, I watched a podcast with um I think his name's Nico or something. Like he's a really big watch expert, and they gave him four watches, and he like like two were fake and two were real. And he he he couldn't eat like this is a guy who works at he sells watches all day, every day, watches watches for his whole life. He couldn't tell, couldn't tell which ones were fake. That is a sign that the fakes have got way too good. So that means like any old bozo is gonna have them on now. Like any old bozo is gonna have a Patek on. So yeah, that's a problem. Yeah, that's a problem.
SPEAKER_01It's a problem for an industry based on scarcity.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and the only way you can now tell is if you crack open the back of it and see what's inside. Like, you know, it seems, yeah, is it is a problem for an industry based on scarcity? That's the best way to put it. You're gonna walk around and see any old bozo, pateks, APs, day dates, which look one-to-one. That's pretty worrying. And I think we probably go back to everyone's rocking a Casio. Like, that's the way it goes back to. Um, we come full cycle, and the Casio analogs come back. It's a comeback.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I love that because I have two, I have two watches.
SPEAKER_02I was gonna say, I know you have a Casio, don't you?
SPEAKER_00One of them it was gifted to me. I didn't buy it, but I had a Casio gifted to me. Yeah, it's a custom actually. Custom engraving, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Custom oh wow, holy shit. Jesus.
SPEAKER_01I also don't think that 99% of the world gives a flying fuck about watches. No, so like myself, by the way. I don't think any old bozo is gonna be wearing a day date down the street.
SPEAKER_02Um I I think but the problem is it's gonna be a load of 20-year-olds with fucking APs on, you know. It's gonna be the the the 20-year-old, he's got uh he's got this AP Skelly on, but he bought it for $1,500 in China.
SPEAKER_01But I think that's why you see the move to vintage watches so much right now. Yeah, I agree. I agree. I'm a big watch. The past two watches I've bought have been have been vintage, and I find myself wearing them a lot more. I might actually ditch my new watches that I have.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, um I'm uh I'm a big, big fan.
SPEAKER_01Although this watch thing is bad timing for me to dump my my Royal Oak.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't know, I don't know if prices.
SPEAKER_00I'm curious, has the market has the market like adjusted? Yeah, is there a place where do you go to actually see pricing on this?
SPEAKER_02I know there's neither Besel or Chrono 24, yeah, that's uh you sometimes struggle with charts though in this shit, and there's so many different versions and models.
SPEAKER_01Um, like the Royal Oak is one base version, but then there's fucking 20 different like 50 different yeah there's the 15500, the 15400, the ultra thins, there's all these different things.
SPEAKER_02I mean the the AP Skelly, man, it's just fucking it's up only right now. That's a cool watch. It is a cool watch.
SPEAKER_01Um, I don't just like I I I I I have nice watches and I'm like like my AP I wear five times a year, if that there's never a reason to wear it, it looks ridiculous. I feel ridiculous wearing it. Like, who am I gonna wear that around other than like crypto guys?
SPEAKER_02That's kind of true.
SPEAKER_01Uh where else am I gonna wear that? Am I gonna go to my buddy's house rocking a royal?
SPEAKER_00Do you do you yeah, I was gonna ask you if that happens a lot. Do you feel embarrassed walking into social events with certain watches on?
SPEAKER_01Like, yes and no.
SPEAKER_00Um, like are there events where you're like, man, I don't I don't think I can wear my AP or whatever. Like I just can't wear my on.
SPEAKER_02I think it depends on what you got. Yeah, I think I think with the vintage watches and shit, it's a great conversation star. But yeah, like the a roll oak and uh the the slash day just like the what uh the the day just yeah the day yeah no day just not day data. I think day dates are nice. I think day dates are nice. I think I'm a really I'm a really really big fan of vintage day dates. Story for another day. I I love these things. I yeah, but I new day dates not a fan.
SPEAKER_01I have a new uh Swizzle. We have the same watch. The uh white gold olive one. I love that watch, it's beautiful. Yeah, uh but yeah, do I ever feel weird going into social situations? Um, yes, I do. Um, and so I don't.
SPEAKER_00wear the nice ones that often i find myself wearing like i have an i have an explorer two and then a sub and then i have a tutor ranger that i wear all the time and then my nice watches just sit in a fucking shelf and don't get touched a shame and it might be time to it might be time to sell them you treat your watches the same way uh sats does with his zcash there you go it's hidden away it's hidden away waiting for the moment it's supposed to be waiting for the moment speaking of which sorry uh uh rough transition but last thing I did want to mention the Zcash thing uh did you guys see Ray Dalio? No what is not this is adjacent to I'm I'm making the Zcash connection but uh Henry I think we've got it on the share link but Ray Dalio came out anti-Bitcoin as he has done in the past he's a big gold guy and he he was talking about how it's the reasoning it's not behaved as a safe haven asset. Um and he says first off Bitcoin lacks privacy transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled which is why central banks aren't looking to hold it um second has a high correlation with tech stocks um I think Ray Dalio has no idea what he's just walked into and what he's done and I can only imagine the army of uh of Zcash maxis in the comments but he sort of just uh accidentally shilled Zcash did he not I think so I think so and you know that might be that's a sign you accidentally shill the bags the bags must be good you know guys what if it wasn't an accident well we've seen that's the funny thing we've seen a lot of this over the last couple of months there's a lot of big names on these you know the the the really popular podcasts or these you know people in the financial world where like those who are clinging to the negative Bitcoin sentiment that every cycle they seem to have like some new attack on Bitcoin and why it doesn't compare to gold or why it is in safe haven asset whatever it seems like the one they're the this conglomerate is sticking to right now is is they've all discovered miraculously they they must have not known before but like they've all discovered that Bitcoin is not private and that it's it's a public ledger and it's very easy to trace. Yeah um I've seen numerous occasions of this uh the guys on the all in pod were talking about it you got Ray Dalio here um I you know I I think it's like it's it's just interesting like this seems to be the main attack on Bitcoin that and the quantum fud now yeah the lack of privacy I mean and the transactions also take a year but like yeah no one's supposed to talk about that but I'm gonna say something unpopular here but you know you know that you guys are buying Zek on a exchange right no well but okay my Zec shield I have shielded Zec. Where did you buy it from so yeah I bought I've bought on different exchanges that's true but you can buy on an exchange and then shield I don't think there's any issues there.
SPEAKER_01Like there's like what's what's the critique on that exactly the critique on that is you're buying you're buying something that is private. I mean the only way it ever truly becomes private is it is if you can transact with it.
SPEAKER_00Right and I think widely transact with it. I am glad you brought that up actually because if you go if you guys remember the electric coin company do you remember in January there was this big blow up of like um the original um like group that was like the Zcash Foundation that was working on the Zashi app they all left this uh company and created yeah and created their own there was a whole bunch of information on why it happened people freaked out it was all advertised as the team was leaving Zcash which turned out not to be true. It turned out that there was issues with the foundation and they ended up creating a private company so that they could work on the things they wanted. What happened was they migrated from Zoshi was the old old app and they now have a new app that they released called Zotal Z-O-D L. And if you download Zotal and you use it you'll see that one of the things that's in beta right now is they actually are working on an integration where you can it's called pay with Flexa where basically it's in beta right now so I don't know how scalable it is but you can you can actually spend Zec at retail locations and it comes out of your Zotal wallet which is shielded so you're spending shielded Zcash out of your wallet the same way you would with Apple Pay. So I think a lot of people are just blatantly throwing these claims around and they're forgetting about the fact that people work on these issues and when there's good teams working on things they make progress and they make developments. And so I think they're very aware of what that accusation is the the easy thing to say is well right now today in uh May of 2026 you can't do all this stuff and so therefore what use do we have for it?
SPEAKER_01Okay what happens when they figure that out and all of a sudden you can at scale spend your shield Z cash and make private transactions what do you do with the argument then I hope number goes up into the right dramatically for you it will I love how I I go I go in this monologue and then Sats just simple he's right will just sitting there getting hard over there getting he's just doing he's doing PL calculations in his head he's wondering what he's gonna buy with his Zach bag I know what I'm even doing I know I'm rambling on that but my point is a good point it's a good point I just think it's you know people need to like do a little bit of diligence before they just start blindly throwing fire no for sure for sure it's one of the bags you don't even calculate the PL because you're never selling never selling it no need to right never selling yeah no need to sell I'm just a privacy guy I just spend my privacy cash you know I was someone was making a comment about something this morning and I was going I do you guys uh keep all of your tweets or delete them I keep all of them keep them I keep I keep on into and I was going back and I found a tweet from like about exactly two years ago in 2024 of me shilling Palestine coin. Oh dear and there is there is no more belligerent bull market behavior than hard shilling a palestine coin on the TL yeah that's impressive people are people are people are out here saying we're in we're in early innings of a bull market on-chain is back and I found I went back that's that that's what a bull market is a bull market is you shilling palestine coin on the TL it is not whatever we have going on here.
SPEAKER_02Is that what's his name pal Green?
SPEAKER_01That was a pal graini coin me and pal were we're we're we're hard we're we're tag teaming palestine coin together I think pal still has like go palestine in his in his thing it's not go palestine it's um what do they say about palest save palestine so yeah damn what a coin eh what a coin wait what my my tweets only go back to 2020 uh 27th of December 2024 what the hell is going on here no no I don't yeah my my my when I scrolled all the way back at the on the 27th of December 2024 I was shilling flock you were hard shilling fog when's the last time you shilled a coin Sats oh man um I don't even know a long long time ago I can't even remember I think the last coin I might have ever shilled was uh believe yeah not a great one so that's you learned your lesson yeah I didn't believe I think it was believe enough to fuck that we should have a time to wrap up I don't know what is yeah I was gonna say before we wrap up I think Pasternak uh somehow escaped all the negative drama like his name is out of the news now jail to no jail to he's gone he fell face to the earth with his with his eight figures and he's good to go um hopefully you all do the same bull market comes back we all rip and make generational life changing money um wait no though hold on the last coin I shilled was Zach you just shielded Zach like two seconds ago yeah oh well on the timeline that is on the timeline I went hard for Zach went hard for Zach went hard for believe both great coins all right let's wrap up we'll we'll be back Friday uh 12 o'clock Eastern like always um let's hope you know we recover from whatever these uh red candles are um go download FOMO in the meantime go check it out uh go check out their web app go trade on chain let's find out if roaring kitty is about to CTO uh RKC probably not let's hear Trevor himself probably not uh we'll be back see you guys have a good one good stuff