Risk On Podcast
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Risk On Podcast
The Best Trader You’ve Never Heard Of | EP 64
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Covering:
• Saylor bought another $2B and BTC is still nuking
• SEC signals no regulation on tokenized securities, HYPE rips
• TRX is still up only and no one's talking about it
• Trump made 3,700 stock trades in Q1
• "Have you tried Phoenix Trade?"
And more.
Good afternoon. Welcome. Uh Risk On episode 64 brought to you by FOMO, best multi-chain trading experience out there. Go download the app today. Go try it on their mobile app. Whatever you do, use promo code RISCON, 10% off all of your trading fees. Join us there. Go check out the Risk On account, which I have successfully drawn down about 90% in my trading challenge. Really crushing it, this bear market. We're brought to you. We're here today without Sassats. He's traveling in this place. We have our good friend Seemeister, the best trader you've never heard of. We're gonna call him. We're gonna glaze him a little bit. And uh Swizzle, how are you guys?
SPEAKER_03I love that label right there.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'll happily turn that on. Thanks, guys. I'm happy to be here.
SPEAKER_02Uh before Stream, we were telling uh uh Swizzle was going through and telling him why he actually thinks that about him and he wasn't just full of shit. Um Seemeister, I'm gonna go dick for dick or uh win for win with you, we'll say, at some point in the show.
SPEAKER_00Um let's let's I know we haven't had a win in a very long time, so begin to kind of reminisce on those wins, you know. It's been a while.
SPEAKER_02Your last win came at my expense.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think I was probably I think I was probably your exit liquidity on that, wasn't it? Oh no, actually the last couple of years.
SPEAKER_02I was your exit liquidity on Graphite Protocol. I bought a top, I was a top 10 graphite holder, and then I kept buying the whole way down from seven bucks because I was like, surely they're gonna fix this. And I'm gonna and then you and your fucking dad and SAT stats, I've I I remember selling on my head the whole way down, and I was fucking buying it at like four or five bucks.
SPEAKER_00Only to like you'll be happy to know that my uh my dad did not sell on your head. I think he still got that bag somehow. But uh I definitely was selling on your head, that's for sure. Uh but no, I mean that's some teaspoon.
SPEAKER_03By the way, is the deepest Sea Meister lore. Just right out of the gate, is that it's the only father-son duo on Crypto Twitter uh who's who's made it multiple cycles. I'm not sure I've seen another uh semi, not docs, but semi-doxed uh in terms of familial ties, uh relationship on crypto twitter.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's you know what, he's a real he's a real good trader. Like he oh sorry, I should say he's a real good holder. He's really a terrible trader. Historic holder historic holder holder, yeah. Like he um did you were you guys around in like 2021 um with like the NFTs on Solana and stuff like that?
SPEAKER_03Bro, bro, I knew who your dad was before I knew who you were. Because your dad, probably still to this day, I I wouldn't be shocked if he's still in the Discord, but like this guy was like leading the the Solana monkey business brigade, like following Conan James, getting updates on on the uh the merch that was coming for the for the various NFTs that were uh blowing blowing off in Solana. Um he was active, he was real active.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so Sea Meister's dad is Conan James, a legendary uh NFT holder, early Solana guy, just never sold any of it though. And he is out there today deep in the trenches with Veboo, defending Solana at all costs. And it is so funny that he's like he's still there, so like Veboo's making a fool of himself. We actually had Veboo on the stream. Um, I think we had him on stream, what, two, three months ago, Swizzle?
SPEAKER_03Yep, yep.
SPEAKER_02It was a great guest. It was right when he first got the job, but now he's out there kind of making a fool of himself, um, telling everybody to go download Phoenix Trade. I wanted to make the title of today's episode uh uh Have You Tried Phoenix Trade? And I was overruled by Swizzle. But um have you guys been following along with the Phoenix Trade hyperliquid V Boo drama at all?
SPEAKER_00Not a lot. Like, I I understand that everyone's kind of after Vu and Phoenix Trade's like not that great at dicks, is what I'm kind of gathering, but like not really.
SPEAKER_02Swizzle, have you been keeping up with it at all?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I mean the same thing is I just I I know we had him on the show and he was plenty nice to us, but it seems Vebo's going down the cringe path a little bit, where he's not exactly been the the most uh in touch representative of Solana lately, uh as they're taking a lot of heat. But yeah, I mean they're they're clearly trying to push is Phoenix Trade like a Solana back it's a Solana backed platform, it's like their perps product, or it's just like a team that was building on Solana?
SPEAKER_02I don't know. I think I think uh Toli is retweeting it left and right, Vu's promoting it left and right. I think it's one and the same at this point.
SPEAKER_03I have always kind of wondered, like I I know uh I'm I'm friends with one of the former Drift founders or co-founders, but like I've always wondered why did like like why has perps not worked on Seoul? Like it's it just seems like I'm I'm sure there's a bunch of more technical reasons why there's been issues, but doesn't it seem like it it should have like at least even predating hype shouldn't have been kind of the spot where most perps trading would have happened. It's just surprising they've never had anything sticked.
SPEAKER_02I don't know. I think I think um I think yes, I think you're right, but I think so many people thought came to think of Solana as the meme coin chain. I I I think the meme coins brought them a ton of attention, right? But at the same time, it didn't attract builders to like the likes of Hyperliquid to come to Solana and build their product there, they probably have better deals elsewhere. Um and no one created a sticky enough product on Solana. Honestly, like Hyper Liquid is kind of like a right place, right time thing, I think, to some degree. Um, yes, the product is truly amazing. Um, best in class product. Um, but like would it have been just as successful on Solana? Probably.
SPEAKER_03Um by the way, I I forgot. So this competition that's happening, uh where Veboo basically challenged, he called him a pro hyperliquid trader. I think uh Seameister, I think you know Drews. Uh we've been in chats with him before, but I'm in a chat with Drews right now, the guy who's doing this competition with Veboo, and he live posted to us in our group chat as he posted his initial trade when they started the the competition. And the only trade he's posted is he did a pair trade of long hype short soul. Uh against Veboo on this, and he's winning. I think he's up, you know, they started with 10 years, he's up like you know, two to three thousand dollars or whatever already. And V Boo, I don't know, I think he longed soul or longed gold or something like that. But I just thought that was hilarious that for this competition he just went pear trade long hype short soul.
SPEAKER_00But I mean, is Phoenix gonna do like an airdrop? Because you know, if you surely that's gonna kind of like attract a few people. I mean, I haven't used the platform, is it any good as well? Um, I know people love hyper liquid, I know it's great, but what's how much different is it, you know?
SPEAKER_02I think they're all kind of the same. The problem at this point is that hyper liquid is all the liquidity, and like you're yeah, like like like if CZ couldn't steal liquidity away, who's gonna steal liquidity from hype from hype?
SPEAKER_03But that's exactly why they're doing this, right? Like they don't really care what happens with all this, they're just trying to get eyes, even if people are clowning it, like they're gonna know what Phoenix trade is now. And then I think that's exactly what happens. Like, you guys remember when Leiter first did their like in the few weeks building up their TGE, I feel like Leiter flipped hyper liquid for like it might only been for like two or three days, but they flipped them in volume and like trade like trading fees and all that stuff. Uh and as soon as happened, they all went back to hype.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and I mean Asta had pretty much all of the global liquidity and crypto for a few weeks there as well.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah. So I I think Phoenix Trade can do this short term, uh, if they have a good points program or they they you know get enough eyeballs on this. Like that's clearly the plan. And then the question is like, is the is the product good? Uh it's just right now, it's like now the um the mode is so thick for hype, it's hard to envision. I also think it's like you start playing around, like I'm uh this is the first cycle I've actually traded perps. Sea Meister, I know you've you love to be a D gen hero a little bit on uh in the perps mode. Like uh we can talk about that later. But uh I feel like that's the tough thing, is like they're all functional, you can do the same thing, but like if you go trade on Aster and then you go trade on hype, it's like materially different. You know, it's just like a way better experience on hype. Um so I I I don't wanna I haven't tried Phoenix trade, so I'm not gonna I'm not gonna shit on them here, but like I imagine it's gonna be the same thing where they're like an early stage perps platform, it's just not gonna be the same experience. Um, but we could be wrong. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Conceptually it makes sense. I mean, yeah, obviously hype is like a yeah, great product, great amount of liquidity, all that. But like conceptually, Solana does feel like a great place to build, you know, a competitor to hype. Like it seems like the only chain that can kind of function in that way. Like, I know everyone loves to shit on sold the token, and fair enough, but like the network itself is you know, it's pretty unmatched, in my opinion.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. I think I'm gonna I I think I'm calling bottom on Solana here. Sentiment is too bad. Um, too many people shitting on it, grave dancing on it. All I see on the TL is people shitting on Solana and saying hyper liquid's the next thing, hyperliquid is gonna change the future of finance, like this time is different. Like, we we we've gone through so many cycles of saying that crypto is gonna change everything, and then that token ends up going to zero in five years. Um, maybe this time is different with hype, and it actually is gonna do it. I don't know. But I think Solana has proven that they can do this and they can do it for a long period of time, and then I think they'll be back. Um, and I think they'll build something else revolutionary, and I'm not I'm not ready to grave dance on Solana. Maybe this is my like dot ETH moment from 2002 or whatever. Um, but I think that people are drastically uh underestimating Solana.
SPEAKER_03I do love Solana, like I agree with you guys in the case, in the sense that like it's you know, for me it was my entry point, really. Like, I I wasn't super involved in the initial ETH DeFi craze. Like, I I I think the network as as a whole, like is so superior in terms of being a place to build. That's all that can all can be true, and it doesn't necessarily equate to like asset appreciation, though. And I think unfortunately, like some of the stuff that are real like foundational functional problems with Soul the asset, it's just like the writing's been on the wall for a couple years, and I think a really a a a good number of really smart people over the last year and a half to two years were really screaming about this. Like they were they were saying that these are things that needed to be addressed, and like the Seoul Foundation and Seoul leadership just didn't address it um or didn't care for whatever reason. Um like the network can be great and be doing awesome things, but like you've got a couple major problems. So one, the like if you get into the tokenomics, the inflationary uh the like the inflation schedule on uh like the soul emissions, uh there's been all this debate about the validators and all that. Like it at the end of the day, like simply put, it's an inflation heavily inflationary token. So there's just more supply coming in. They had opportunities with like their governance votes to change the emission schedule and make it less inflationary, and they chose not to do that. They opted and voted not to do that. Um that's a problem. Uh and then you've got like Pump Fun. You can love or hate Pump Fun, but like they're now releasing uh it's it's probably one of the you know the greatest assets Solana has in terms of like every time these tokens are launched, there's this locked soul that's held in a pool and basically sits there, which was basically a deflationary mechanism. And now they uh Pump Fun is uh I don't know if you guys saw, they're like switching over to an um their default option is gonna be uh USDC pair trading instead of Solana pair trading. That's a massive fucking problem for Solana, I guess it's like huge problem because that was one of the things, maybe it isn't everything, but that's one of the things that was combating the uh in uh inflation uh for the for the emission emissions issue. And so I don't know, man. Like I love Solana, I I think it's just a great technology, like it was something I was super bullish on for years, and I was probably one of the the final soldiers like fighting for it when people started to get really bearish. But it's a lot it's a lot of problems that they uh have not really focused on addressing in any way. So the token itself, like I agree with you. Maybe sentiment is a real thing, it's just a sentiment bottom, and then you know, as crypto starts to move up, it moves up again. I think whenever beat Bitcoin recovers, you'll probably see Solana go up. But is it gonna outperform? I don't know, man. It's it's kinda I hate to say it, but it's kinda hard to see it from this point forward.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think I I think I conceptually agree with you. Like, I I think the network itself will always I mean people always shit on Solana and say, like, oh, it's only for memes and all that, but like it actually does have pretty good like people building apps on Solana and as kind of like decentralized finance and all that stuff continues to grow. Uh I think the network will get lots of adoption, but I just have no interest in owning the token. Like, I I don't. And it's basically for what you said. It's like I can do a thousand, two thousand transactions and own one dollar of Solana. That's not great economics.
SPEAKER_03They've never done anything to make like the asset an important part of that ecosystem. So, like, yeah, I would way rather use Solana than any, like, please don't make me touch anything on ETH mainnet, please. Yeah, but like, and whatever else comes along, like I'm not falling for the monad trap or whatever, it's it's the best place. But but like Monad season, yeah. Monad season. Should I build Monday up here with with Meister? But yeah, like I'm with Meister, man. Like I can use Solana all day, every day, and not need to hold the token.
SPEAKER_02So yeah. You guys are right. Time will tell. And if V Boo continues to be what to to do what Vebu's doing, maybe you guys will 100% be right. Um, and uh, he'll just continue to dig dig the foundation into a deeper and deeper grave. Um, but in the interim, all anybody is talking about is Zek and Hype. Hype had the big news come out um where uh what is it, the uh innovation. Hold on, let me pull it up here. I don't know if you can pull up that tweet. Hype uh is going to be doing uh uh SEC is set to release so-called uh innovation exemption for tokenized stocks, which will pave the way for digital versions of securities. Hype was already doing this, and then last week there was the rumor that uh the that uh the Nasdaq and the CME were pushing for them to be uh regulated, right? And then Jeff goes to Washington last week, and then we get this news yesterday. And it seems that hype is kind of finding its moat. Um, price is starting to reflect that. It has been reflecting its importance for some time. People are saying, you know, uh, we had uh Ansem tweeting out yesterday, some other guys tweeting out that the SpaceX IPL will be the biggest event ever for Hyper Liquid, and we should expect a Solana type COVID-esque move in Hyper Liquid going into that. Um, Swizzle, you're the only hype holder here. Uh Seameister and I are dirty, or dirty sideline bears in it. What is your feeling on this? The dot HL is in the timeline. I can't log into Twitter and not see hype people everywhere. It's driving me crazy. I tweeted out this morning, uh, hot take, uh hyperliquid is this cycle Solana, which I thought was really, really funny. Because that's the only thing, that's the only thing anybody ever says. Um, this is generally bullish though. Um this is genuinely bullish, and I think it's good for the industry. Um I don't know. I think it's a path to like what, like maybe insider trading things first. I don't know. You tell me, Swizzle.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I mean, I I think ultimately it's like a yeah, depends what depends what lens you're looking at, it right. Like there's definitely ways you could look at this and say it's a bit concerning. Um but as far as like on-chain activity goes, uh it's pretty bullish, right? It's um it kind of gives you uh a little bit of um speculative clarity that like you're gonna all this stuff people have been waiting to see happen is gonna happen. And um this I just feel like a lot of the overhang and uncertainty and fear uh was hey, this all gets shut down, the SEC will never allow this or whatever. And now this is kind of like the wake-up call of like, oh shit, like this is really happening. They're actually gonna allow tokenized equities to have a path forward, and like obviously, given that it's the hub right now, like hype is a recipient of that. Um I do think you gotta look at like um I I don't know, like hype is already trading at I guess my question is are are you going off of the $12 billion market cap or the $46 billion FTV? Like what's what's the FTV? Yeah, but so what's the correct approximization approximation of like how do you properly value this or whatever? And I don't know if it even matters if it's just like it's gonna go up or gonna go down based on bullish things happening, but like I think for sure sometimes you can get caught in the trap of thinking something too consensus and everyone is talking about it, and therefore like you're it's late, it's like late innings. I feel like a lot of the times though, sometimes the the consensus thing is consensus for a reason, and sometimes it really is that obvious. If you log in every day, it's pretty clear what the trades are and market conditions have to be primed for it, you need the catalyst, etc. But like I don't know why you'd be if you were gonna have exposure to the market, I don't know why you'd be betting on other things than these consensus bets right now. I guess would be my take. Uh, but I mean I don't know. I'm curious your guys taking the other side of it, like why you're not comfortable holding at least like a insurance position, something like hype right now.
SPEAKER_00Um, yeah, I guess I could go. Like I think, yeah, I I think what you said was also a pretty good point. Like, if you are bullish on the market, then you probably should hold some hype. But the issues, I'm not very bullish on the market. Like, equity's just ripped so hard for the last like month. Um, Bitcoin kind of looks like shit at the moment. Like, I just if things hold up, I could easily see it double, I guess, and that would be amazing. But I just like I really struggle to buy it. I mean, maybe I'm just I'm mid-curving it to the max because every time I've traded hype, I've just lost shit tons of money. Um like I just really struggle to buy it hair when everything looks kind of dodgy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think I'm in the same boat as Sea Meister. I I I also held a very large bag of hyperliquid that I bought in January, um, around like 12, like $12 to $14 or so, and then I ended up capitulating it like for a very small profit, and it would be worth 4x or whatever it is now. So I I I have also I have a I have a bit of uh a bit of scarring from that, but for me it's pretty simple. It's like whenever I'd go to enter a trade, I I'd have to enter this hype trade with a decent amount of size. I know what my upside is, right? Like I'm looking at these comps that base 6 and Z tweeted out yesterday, I think, and it's uh you know, if it's comp to ice, it's 350 bucks, CME 435, Nasdaq 205, Robinhood 277, IBKR 151. Okay, do you ascribe any likelihood that this can be valued similarly to Robinhood? Because I I don't.
SPEAKER_03Um I think there's a I think there's a path towards it, yes.
SPEAKER_02Not in the near future, in the next five years, sure. In the next year, no.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I I think you always have to look at like uh base case, bull case. There, like there's all the range of outcomes. I think the best case scenario for hype is like, you know, everything that the dot HLs have been preaching about ends up happening, and there's a there's a chance that that happens because like the adoption curve has been pretty pretty crazy on this. That said, with all the you know, the amount of like I guess like the the type of traders that exist on hyperliquid compared to Robinhood are a much more um I would say like a val a more valuable customer because the amount of They trade is going to generally be much higher than like the average Robin Hood trader, and I think there's something to be said for that. Um but you know, the there's still the issue of getting onto the platform and onboarding your users and etc. And then some of the regulatory overhang. I I think there still will always be questions on that to a certain degree. Uh could it be worth a third of the value of Robin Hood and that be very uh realistic? Like, yeah, I think that's pretty realistic. Uh could it be worth half? Maybe. Does it become as valuable as Robinhood? You know, small chance, but that's you're you're now getting a little bit illusional, right? In the short term. Um so it depends on where you're at. Like I entered the trade, I thought I was late entering in the high 20s, low 30s, you know, around 30 bucks, right? Um I I thought I was a little bit late in chasing for the same reasons you're saying now. It's different as we're approaching 50 bucks. I think you just gotta continue to think about like stuff in bull markets is not gonna act predictably rational in comparison to these comps. So, like, if we were to get, you know, uh again, you have to decide how correlated you think this will continue to be to Bitcoin. Um in some ways, this is fair to treat this more like a tech stock than it is traditional alts the way we view them, because this really is like a consumer product, basically. Like this is a tech company, like not an alt alternative cryptocurrency. Um but I do think it'll be correlated somewhat to the market. So uh I don't know. I don't know. I I could see why you wouldn't want to enter here, but I'm also very comfortable holding for now.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I 100% on a hundred percent. I think Peg tweeted out something, I think it was yesterday or today, which we have up now, um, that crypto natives are having a hard time buying coins like Zec and Height because what Cmeister just said, BTC and ETH look terrible. And you know, the saying as always uh Bitcoin leads and money trickles down. We're not seeing that right now. We're seeing hype lead, we're seeing Zec lead, we're not seeing Bitcoin lead. And so for people that have been around for a while, they think to themselves, okay, sure, like yeah, I can buy hype, but I gotta get out of it pretty quickly because Bitcoin and ETH look and soul look like dog shit. So like I don't want to be exposed to alts that have that can go down 90% and then another 90% and then another 90%, like we've seen over and over again. Um, and is maybe this time is different, and we're seeing the a change to some degree. Like BTC and hype, uh BTC and ETH and Sol don't need to be going up for good companies that are like good tech companies that are building cool things like hype, like Zach is doing. Those can still go up while the core crypto assets look like shit. And are we seeing a change here? Maybe. And I think for me, that's a big reason why I can't justify buying these two assets here. I'm thinking to myself, Bitcoin looks like shit, eventually the rug is gonna get pulled. And time and time again, they just keep grinding up, grinding up, grinding up, and I'm sitting there like, fuck, like this doesn't make any sense to me. Um, and I think I'm struggling with that.
SPEAKER_00I think I'd be pretty I'd be happy to hold it, but like entering here just feels fucking risky. And like once you've been in crypto long enough, right? You kind of know that there'll be there'll be another time to buy a coin, you know. Like you can afford to kind of like sit out this run. Like, I'm happy for the holders, but I also saw how fast Zeke went from like 700 to like 200, like uh when was that, January, February? So the risk of loss just seems like better than the risk of gain at this price point. Again, that's if you're freshly entering, not if you're holding. If you're holding, I think straight for the stars.
SPEAKER_03I I think you guys are being like, that's the experience trader mindset where you're like also for you, if with that mindset, it doesn't even matter if you watch it run up way higher than you expect, because let's say it runs up way higher than we think and hits a para you know, parabolic price discovery, then it crashes down and you still end up buying higher than where it's at right now, that can still be a better entry than like top blasting lower because of the the lack of certainty of what's gonna happen, right? So I I think that's like a good mindset to have. That said, I think like to me, uh I don't know if we can pull it up or not. Like one of the interesting things I was looking at that is like is this beginning of trend or late stage trend, but like so we have this up here right now that like high BTC and the pair trade just hit an all-time high. I believe Z BTC is the same thing, right? Where like these pair trades, you're seeing the ratio like the the relative performance of these specific alts are are doing very well compared to Bitcoin. But meanwhile, if you look at at Bitcoin dominance, like BTC.d, which is basically Bitcoin's performance against altcoins as an entire asset class, like BTC dominance is rising again. It's it's on an uptrend, meaning like most of the most of like altcoins are actually performing pretty badly right now and are in a worse place to hold than Bitcoin while Bitcoin is struggling. So these are very like uniquely positioned. And the question is like, is this a pocket of time and you don't want to bet on this trend continuing because it's probably gonna revert to everything else? Or do you need to start looking at these two assets differently because they're not performing the same way as you know, the big grouping of like uh what we consider as altcoins historically? And that goes to Hake's point, which is like, I don't know, is this different, or is that a warning sign of like, hey, don't get too overly excited about what's happening here because it's temporary? And that's the question I asked as a trader.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I would say it's more likely that this time is different for hyperliquid than Zcash. You know what I mean? Because like there's actual revenues going behind hyperliquid, like they're buying back their token and stuff like that. Zcash is every other old hub that's ever kind of existed, but it's just the current narrative. And like it's great that it's privacy, but like have you guys seen how that moves? Like, it fucking runs up like 3, 4x and then just dump 70%. Like, that's every move in crypto I've ever seen. Like you're just crushing twists.
SPEAKER_03To me, it's why the hype Zek barbell is so interesting, though, because like hype has this legitimate argument, like, hey, you can treat this more like a tech stock. There's a lot more like fundamental like value analysis you can find to justify the price action in comparison to Bitcoin. Zek has that, what you're saying, but also it's it's emerging as the clear leader of like all of those assets of this like okay, if we're going to pile into one, this is the one that makes sense. And because of that, to me, like the Zek trade is actually way more asymmetric than hype right now. On a shorter trade, yeah. There's just way more risk, also. Like the volatility should can be expected to be insane. Um but as a you know, as a someone who enjoys that lifestyle and inflicting pain on myself, I'm more happy now to get into Zcash than I am to hype. Uh so I don't know, man. It's uh I see your point. Like that's it's a fair point.
SPEAKER_00No, I mean it's supposed to be fair, like six months to eight months ago, I would have just been I would have been basically parroting like everything you said, because like that's how I used to trade as well. But now I've just I've just had like too many scars of like ever since October 10th. You know.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so um you're not down as bad as our boy uh Mashi Big Brother. Did you see he's down 77 million dollars on perps this year? How does he have that much money?
SPEAKER_03Just in 2026, like just his calendar exactly.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 77 million. So Cmeister's out there. Cmeister went portfolio net worth long bitcoin at 90, right? Right, Cmeister?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, I went Newton mode on that, and uh let's just say I definitely accidentally broke. You're not as bad as Marty. Yeah, not as bad as Martian is like obviously like I've got like the Newton PFP and shit like that, and like every time in the last 12 months, I've basically got excited about like coins as they're about to load the top, and then I basically just go full Newton mode on the timeline, like post a bunch of like Isaac Newton memes and shit like that, and like it automatically precedes me losing like seven figures within the next few weeks.
SPEAKER_03Can you can you explain just because this is like the mo I feel like most people on crypto Twitter know this now, but this is also you've leaned into like the most niche internet uh investing meme and just made it your literally made it your personality and your profile picture. So can you actually like walk us through what Newton mode means?
SPEAKER_00Does someone have are we able to like put the photo on screen of like the Newton seashore, whatever the fuck it's called? The seashore? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um so yeah, basically like Isaac Newton, everyone's like favorite physicist, like back in the day, he got in early to like this uh sailing company. I I don't know what they did back then, but like and then this whole post of basically like a market bubble, right? Where like Newton enters, um Newton makes like a little bit of profit, he exits happy, then like Newton's friends get in towards the local top of this like chart, right? And then they all get rich. So Newton gets like real jealous about all of his friends getting rich, so he just apes back in with all of his profits, like adds margin on hyperliquid, um and basically just like gets the absolute local top and then exits broke, and that's pretty much like what I've done for the last like 12 months, like 2022 to like 2025, like made good profits, and then like 2025 to 2026 just aped every single local top and went new to mode and lost a bunch of money.
SPEAKER_03It's like it actually is the ultimate, like this is the ultimate like crypto uh like day trader experience, I feel like. And the crazy thing with you though, Meister, is like you literally say you're you call out what you're doing as you do it, and then you do it anyways. You're like, hey, I'm I'm Isaac Newton mode right here. I'm gonna buy because I feel this FOMO. I know it's the wrong thing, and then it happens, and you're like, see, I told you guys, and we're like, Well, yeah, but you so did you exit the trade?
SPEAKER_00You're like, no, I think like literally the last couple times I posted neuter mode was like October 5th last year, like five days before October 10th. So I made money for like five days, and then like sometime around January this year, when I just pull ported Bitcoin at 90k, and then when it went to 97k though, like I was up like almost 10%, and then just fucking bagheld that all the way down to 60k.
SPEAKER_03So, in fairness though, I have seen you in bull market, we've both seen you in bull market conditions do this same thing, Newton mode, and scale in and out, and like you know, especially back in the meme coin days in like 2024 or whatever, you would see we could see you, you would announce that you enter a trade, we would see when you entered and exited, and like you would go in, it would, you know, it would all of a sudden the the coin would go up over the next few days, like 20%, and then you would see this nasty red candle, and it'd be like, Alright, Sea Meister exited. So new mode worked for you with size on numerous occasions, which I I feel like that has to be one of the reasons you kept going back to it, right? Is like works very well in a bull market.
SPEAKER_00I think that's the thing, and I think that's why so many traders like end up losing it all at the same time, right? Like, I mean, after conditions change, because I was doing this for like maybe two years, and it was on like and it wasn't even on Bitcoin, that would be on like low-cat shit coins, like sub 100 million kind of thing. And it worked for two years straight, basically. Like, if you picked the right times, um, but then I kept doing that, and like the size just kept getting bigger, and then so for the last like last couple, like I lost like a probably down like 35% on the port, like from all the time lines. So it's not too bad. Like, I did learn a little bit. Um, but yeah, like people just don't learn, and they continue to do that. And after the after two Newton modes, I just have to kind of like be like, all right, maybe I should actually take this as a warning. Like it stops being funny on the third one, you know what I mean?
SPEAKER_03I think the other thing, I think the other thing as you look at on this Newton chart, like on the down, like there's the up, they re-enter, and then on that nasty down, this is where you see a lot of people, like especially like like beginning perps traders, maybe they made money on meme coins, they shift to perps, or like it's almost like the same phenomenon you see with like gamblers uh at the casino or whatever, where it's like they might size smaller, like invest a bit, exit happy, but then like when they start trying to like feel like oh okay, I I gotta double down, I gotta make more back, it's like the sizing goes up as the market conditions worsen. And that's the biggest problem is like if you know you can take your stabs at it if you keep discipline with your sizing, and it's probably not the worst thing in the world if you guess and you're wrong, but if you keep sizing up on the way down, that's how that's how it kills you, right?
SPEAKER_00100%. And I think like because we all we all came from like relatively small stacks, I think, right, when we started off in crypto. And so we we like did quite well in the trenches, like in the um kind of like the Solana memes of 2024 and all that. And you're starting off with like quite low stacks, right? Like maybe like low five figures or whatever, right? Um, and then you're trading that up, and you're able to kind of like almost full stack things because your full stack doesn't have quite the gravity of like trading with seven figures or whatever. Right. Um, so you get used to trading with like a big percentage of your portfolio, um, and it works for a while, but then like what happens is conditions can change, but also you're used to just going in with a full stack, and also your stack's a lot bigger than when you started out, and like all of a sudden the losses are like, oh wow, that that was quite a lot, you know.
SPEAKER_02Do you kind of grow to like the losses though? Because like uh during the World War II.
SPEAKER_00I did not like this loss loss.
SPEAKER_02Oh, your Bitcoin loss. Yeah, I mean that that was such a stupid thing. I I I was chirping at you not to do that for days on end. Um, if you recall. I should have listened.
SPEAKER_03I was on the other side, I was pumping him up. I was like, honestly, it's a good trade, man.
SPEAKER_01I think I had them up.
SPEAKER_02You were all arrogant because our boy Scooter XBT put you on blast uh on the TL basically saying you were a bonk insider trading useless, but it was just fucking Seameister being a good trader. You guys remember that? What was that story? So you scooter Scooter put put he put your wallet out there as a guy who was just incredibly who was very profitably trading useless. And he was and he was making the connection that it had to be it had to be some uh insider's wallet because no one could actually trade this well, and you were just like extracting millions of dollars out of useless and you were just crushing it, and it was just like no, that's just Sea Meister's wallet, and he was accusing you of being an insider, which you weren't.
SPEAKER_00Oh bro, it was ridiculous, right? Like I I managed to like I made a pretty good trade on Graphite last year, um and I was taking profits kind of like in the from like five dollars to seven dollars. I like sold probably like honestly, like half of the bag kind of thing. I still had like half ready. Um and then I bought I started rebuying back at like three dollars or something like that. I can't I can't remember the exact numbers, but at the same time I was also trading in and out of useless because that that was like probably like one of my best wins last year was like getting in a little bit, well actually following you guys into useless, and then basically just fucking yeah, I didn't go quite swizzle mode on it, but I held it for a while up to the top. Um, so I was I was basically trading all these like bonk uh bonk.fun coins, and scooter just basically saw someone like taking profit on them, and I was like, I just saw these posts with all of my wallets because I like moved them around. Who knows? I'm just like fuck me, like why is this guy like coming up at me? Like my face wasn't on like wasn't on like the actual um posts or anything like that, and you know, now it's accounts banned, so see you later. Um, is it banned?
SPEAKER_03I didn't know that.
SPEAKER_00I don't know if it's banned or if you're like Canada's account, but um but yeah, it was just like basically tracking all of my wallets, and they're just making up these yarns that I was like trying to manipulate at the price because I was buying low and selling high, like we all aim to do it for me, dude.
SPEAKER_01This is what we call blue trading. That's actually profitable trading, that's all it is.
SPEAKER_00It was like trying to say it was like manipulated the price of these punked up fun coins, but even weirder than that was like I was also trading like a bit of troll and fart coin at the time as well. Um, and he was saying I was like intentionally dumping these pumped up fun coins to basically like ruin them or something like that. I was like, What? Like, what's your logic here? Like that was pretty cooked though, because I ended up like having I like had all this graphite in my bag and I was like dropping like a stone, and I like felt scared to like sell the rest of it. But I was like, God, I gotta do something, you know what I mean?
SPEAKER_02SeaMester, how do you feel about this current troll run? As two of the only I I think you and I were the only guys who were in troll for the first run that I really knew of, and we both bought it. It was pretty funny because we both bought it, and you changed your PFP to uh free electron for a little bit, if you recall.
SPEAKER_00I still have it on my telegram, yeah.
SPEAKER_02You still have it on telegram. The only reason you and I you and I went into that trade together, and our thesis, it was this simple. It was uh free electron has been wrong for about 18 months straight. He's bound to get one right. And that was the only thesis we had. And so I bought half a percent of troll at like 30 million or something, and I think you entered shortly thereafter as well. And uh we were in and I I ended up exiting around 200 million or something. Um, and that was a great run, but now it's pumping again, and I'm sidelined and I'm like, I can't bring myself to buy it. I I I actually think it's a terrible meme. Um, have you seen that at all?
SPEAKER_00It's not funny, it's not like it's not a funny meme, is it? It's yeah. I I honestly only just saw that the other day, and I was actually shocked. Like it's back at like 110 million or something like that, and I'm like, who is buying this? But like, full credit to them. Maybe I'm like, hopefully, free electron's still holding the bag.
SPEAKER_03You guys know it's funny. I was I was much later to you guys than that, but I don't know if you remember this from the conversation ETV. I ended up buying a pretty big bag. I think I bought like three million tokens or something. I don't know when you guys entered. Would you entered at like 30 million or something like that?
SPEAKER_0230 million.
SPEAKER_03So I ended up.
SPEAKER_00No, this is the worst. Sorry, you guys.
SPEAKER_03No, I was gonna say I entered later, probably like 60 or 70 million or whatever. And I and I was saying to you guys at the time, I'm buying size of this only because I held so much useless. I think I was still holding 2% of the supply useless. And I was like, it is vamping my bag, and I need I I can't have this narrative happen. So I need to acquire enough that if this thing really starts to break out, I can one stack out of it and try to kill the momentum. That was literally my mindset. And then it started running so hard that I was like, uh, I don't know. I think I'm just gonna hold this with you guys. This seems like a pretty good trade now. Um so I sort of also ended up becoming a troll guy, not with nearly the size you guys had, but just from the standpoint of like it was a hedge against my other bleeding bag at the time.
SPEAKER_00No, this was actually the worst part though. I was actually a troll at the time. Like I made the joke that troll was gonna basically like I made the joke of like making free electron my whole personality, and then Wood got like a massive bag of it, but I was always too lazy to actually buy, and then it just ran without me. So I never actually like I never actually acquired the troll bag at that point. So I was kind of a troll lob for a little bit there, unfortunately.
SPEAKER_03So you were posting heavily, but you actually didn't hold it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean I did trade in and out of it a little bit during that scooter XPT side of um time, but I never like I never bought it at like 20 or 30 mil, even though I thought it was like a hilarious like joke.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it was pretty funny. It was some of the most fun I've had on crypto Twitter in a long time.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, um, yeah. There was a period last year where like crypto was genuinely quite fun, and then it just rapidly kind of like yeah, went downhill a little bit.
SPEAKER_02Uh we gotta bring that back. Uh Crashi as Clay was on Rasmir yesterday saying that Troll's going to 10 billion and it's gonna beat out Peppy.
SPEAKER_00I saw that post.
SPEAKER_02So um, you know, maybe maybe this time's different. I don't know.
SPEAKER_03I do think correlation. Is there a correlation like the more fun people have in the space, the more money is made?
SPEAKER_02Yes. I think there's a pretty good thing. I think it's the other way around. I think it's the other way around, though. I think I think it's the more money you're making, the more fun you're making. I think the fun precedes it in a way.
SPEAKER_03I think you're right. I think you're right. Like people stop taking themselves too seriously, they stop fucking like you know attacking everyone on the timeline, and all of a sudden coins start to look good.
SPEAKER_00Maybe it's always when people start like pocket watching that things start to like go bad. Like when everyone's like, oh, how do you sell like a bit of a squad? Like I remember back in the day when like you were one of the first to like run for the exit of like fog. Um and I just hated you so much for that. Did you? I was like, man, this guy's dumping my bags, they're gonna like doesn't he know it's gonna go to like five billion or something like that, and then I should have just been following you out the exit.
SPEAKER_02But uh yeah, yeah, I did dirty things to that chart. But you and I, Sea Meister, trade very similarly. We were talking to this pre-stream um whereas like, you know, and I think Sat said this about me last last show or a couple shows ago, when I was trading Fuck, I would like sell like a million tokens at 400 mil or whatever, and then 10 minutes later buy it all back. I just am a crazy flip-flopper. I would just like like, irregardless of the chart and whatever, I would just like be like, fuck, I should sell this, like, oh fuck, it's gonna go back up. Like, I should be buying it. And you do that very similarly, except I think I feel like you do it not just in memes, but also in perps.
SPEAKER_00Are you like I'm actually less emotional with memes? Like, I like back in the day, I'd like to buy them and then I'd like to hold them for a while. Like, I was a bit of a free extra electron believer, you know what I mean? Um perps, I'm definitely like that. Like I'll like intro long or whatever, and then I'll be like, oh no, I have like what am I doing here? I'm like lose, you know, like lose like fucking full light in a few minutes and then close the position. And it's just like yeah, I'm I'm very much like that with perps. Uh that's why I don't do them anymore. Like it's it's just it's it's a quick way to go.
SPEAKER_03You're done perps trading. You're just a spot guy.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'm I'm a spot guy. Um yeah, I'm definitely a spot guy.
SPEAKER_03Wow. So I've taken I've taken Sea Meister's uh I've taken the uh the torch from him because I I recently entered the arena.
SPEAKER_00Oh well, have fun with that. It's uh it's kind of you know, it's a challenging arena that one. Are you are are you like trading quite well with it, or are you like how's it going on the perps front?
SPEAKER_03Uh it's going pretty well, actually, but you know, we've talked about it on stream a good amount. I use like open claw, I use uh a lot of like these AI tools to help me basically like monitor my emotions, and so I force myself to be very objective. Uh and I also I don't even know if it counts as the same thing because I'm taking like 2x leverage max on on anything, and uh you know it that still counts as perps, but like I'm I'm very conservative and I'm to this point forcing myself to be disciplined. So we'll see. The perps journey is uh I feel like there's many stories of people having success in the early days only to have it eat them later on. So I'm probably just early in that stage of the journey.
SPEAKER_02Our boy Andrew had a good tweet saying perps are merely a tool to turn your money into Arthur Hayes' new Ferrari. I I wish you luck, Swizzle.
SPEAKER_03It seems fair.
SPEAKER_00Oh, that's true.
SPEAKER_03I've only got one position open and been pretty poor.
SPEAKER_02The problem for perps traders is that we're is that in most crypto people, like we're fucking addicts. Like you just need to keep clicking buttons no matter what. Like, even when there's not a trade, you force trades. And you're like, oh, like I just closed this trade, I made, I made 20 grand. Great. I need to find the next 20k trade, I need to find it right fucking now. And I can't wait. I just go, I scan every single new pair, I I go scan uh every pair on hype, and I find whatever coin I think might break out, and you're just like it's like playing slots at that point. At least that's how it is for me. Um, that's my personality. I think that that that's a lot of per people's personalities. The those are not the ones who are successful over a long period of time. But you can catch lightning in a bottle, but you end up giving it all back as well.
SPEAKER_03I think anything I was just gonna say, I think anything over like 3x leverage, you're basically just gambling, right? Like it's like taking a swing at the casino or rolling the dice or whatever, because there's just so much like anything can can be manipulated in this world where like prices can wick to whatever level they need to. Uh there's just always bigger players, but um yeah, I I think I think that's also what makes it so like enticing for people is some of the same phenomenons of like how quickly wins and losses can be stacked.
SPEAKER_00I think the worst part for me, like for me I was never like the leverage, like I never got liquidated or anything like that, but it's just how easy and fake the money and the position sizes are when you're on a platform like that. And it's like I'll enter, you know, a long like Solana at like 120 bucks or whatever. All of a sudden it's down to 115, and I'm all like, well, I've got a lower price now, I've got to lower my entry, and like all of a sudden you're like long 30,000 fucking Solana, and you're like, what am I doing here? It's a Monday afternoon.
SPEAKER_02We've all been there before.
SPEAKER_00That was just so easy to do.
SPEAKER_02So it's like so dangerous, it's so dangerous, it feels like monopoly money.
SPEAKER_03So that that's the other thing is like if you look at like I don't know how transparent these are, but if you actually look at the like what's like keeping these books together, and this is clearly probably what happened on 1010 to a certain degree, is like there's just not that as much money as you think that's propping up whatever the price is being held on either direction. And it's like, you know, you you probably assume that some of these coins you see they're they have a $10 billion market cap or whatever, and you don't realize that there's probably like $500k on each side preventing like some cascade to a massively gapped uh price difference. You know, it's just like these things are just not nearly as liquid as people seem to think that they are, and that's a huge problem too. And you know, that's why we saw in 1010 like Avalanche. You guys you remember what happened to Avalanche? It was like I think it was trading at like 25 bucks or 26 bucks, and it literally wicked down to like five dollars or something like that.
SPEAKER_00I think Adam went to like a Sind or something like that, right? Like Adam has like actual people working on it, and it went to literal zero for like a minute, which is just scary.
SPEAKER_03Like because there's just not that much like trading interest or open interest or volume, whatever on a normal normal basis, and so most of these market makers probably just assume okay, we can probably cover it with a couple million bucks of liquidity, right? In both directions. Um I just don't think they were I I bet it's hopefully better now, but I I don't think they were prepared for what happened at all.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it it was definitely like a turning point. It's crazy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean definitely. I think back to what we were saying before, I think people need to start having fun again. Um, and I think I'm starting to see a little bit of that with hype and Zec to some degree. Like people are enjoying bullposting these bags. The difference we're seeing is there isn't like that asymmetric upside that people get really excited about in crypto. Like back when the memes were starting, like if you were holding like whiff or whatever, you had like forever to buy that coin and make insane multiples on it. I think it's hard for everyone to get excited about making a 2x on hype right now. I think we really need to see some sort of on-chain meta take place somewhere where there that like if if there's a hype wealth effect, maybe there's a hype EVM season. If there's a Zek wealth effect, maybe there's a Zec on-chain season. I mean, I I I have no idea, but like I think that is really what is gonna get people fired up again. Um we need someone like Seemeister to be able to start with nothing and go catch Mishi, Stan, Fuag, all those other wins, you know, and get really, really jacked up about it. Because right now, like I view it as um, you know, the downside risk of holding Zek and hype is great relative to the upside risk. Um, and I just like really am waiting for something to take place on chain, but I've been waiting for months now.
SPEAKER_03That's the other crazy thing about on-chain. Like, you know, we talked to this guy Logjam uh earlier in the or last week, and like I think you you see some cases of there's some people who flaunt some huge wins on FOMO, shout out FOMO, or like you know, they'll post a screenshot of some great PL. The tough thing right now, though, is those wins are like you're seeing someone flex like a six-figure win on a position that you know the token topped at like four million market cap or whatever. And it's like, okay, that doesn't really seem like a thing that incites excitement for us unks to come back in and start trading on chain, you know, like we want to buy something at 50 million that runs to 300 million or 500 million or whatever. We don't want to try to get in there and you know top a coin that that has no liquidity.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, you get you literally have to like full stake Hitler, like 4% of like the coin supply at 4 million. I was like, fuck man, like get like get on these people. Obviously, six figures is a lot of money regardless of the circumstances, but I mean how many losses have they like do you have to sit through to get to that? You know what I mean? Like, I don't know what's gonna go to four million, you know what I mean? Like, not in this stage. Whereas like there was a bit more like it's kind of like how Zeke can hype are now. Like, people like, okay, fog is like the meme of the time now. I'm just gonna buy FORG on like a 38% dip, and then I'm pretty confident I can like 2x my money pretty soon. And it was like you had that for like a year and a half, and it was it was good times. I I miss it, to be honest.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I miss Deepa too. Maybe it'll be back, maybe one day. Sats, who's not here, is very bearish on the future of on-chain. Um, I think we'll be back. I think it'll all I think it always comes back. Um, I guess so. Cmeister, you're not holding much outside of Bitcoin right now. What would make you deploy more capital into crypto? Or are you uh or is there like nothing, or are you just kind of like in uh waiting mode?
SPEAKER_00I think I'm in waiting mode. Um like to be honest, like I know I just said I wouldn't buy hype at this price. Like I was pretty keen to buy hype at like 36 bucks, but then all the news like released and then I just got sidelined. Um but I probably would have allocated some of my Bitcoin stack to hype at that point. In terms of everything else, it's it's really hard. Like, I mean, when I think we've both been in this state for a while, I think you were like this before me, but it's kind of hard to for me, it's hard to see like every other market just go like parabolic in the last six months and be like, yeah, this feels like this is room to run. So I kind of like am looking at everything in general and being like just a bit risky that it's like I lost like everything I had in 2021 to 2022. I don't want to do that again, you know what I mean? Um, yeah. So I think it's just like a general risk-off mood. Uh but in the same note, like I do think like hype is definitely like a coin. And I just to be honest, if Solana like got to a very discounted level, that would be pretty attractive as well, I have to say.
SPEAKER_03And you don't think the current levels we're seeing are discounted levels?
SPEAKER_00They are discounted levels, but like I mean, you know, I thought back in 2021, right? I thought like $100 Solana was like a bargain and then it went down to eight bucks. Like, you know, like it's you just never know in crypto. It's kind of and I think like it's I mean, I guess what would this be? Second cycle. You kind of get like that PTSD from the previous cycle. Um so it's just it's hard to things are discounted, but they're not obvious discounts, you know what I mean?
SPEAKER_03Right, right.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. And as far as the PS uh PTSD thing goes, I have a question for you guys, and I'm something I've been wrestling with. If you've had a good cycle, you know, a lot of people make a lot of money in one cycle, they either give it all back, or they're not able to replicate that success from cycle to cycle. I think we saw a lot of ETH DeFi guys do really well and they held on to ETH DeFi for too long, right? They stuck in with it and said, This is the future, I'm gonna hold it, it's gonna come back. Never came back. As a result, they underperformed this entire cycle. Um, they didn't adapt. Do you guys feel like you like I guess uh Sea Meister, do you feel like you've developed an edge where you can come back and trade as effectively as you did last cycle and the next cycle? Um or do you think that like things are changing underneath your feet and uh you might not come back? Or are you gonna try to come back?
SPEAKER_00I yeah, that's a good question. I I feel like at this current point in time, I'm like still a bit scarred from January and like entering that going new to mode and then like losing that money. Um so at the moment I feel like kind of scarred, and I'm not sure how I would like be able to come back and like throw it around the same kind of size into like the same kind of sized coins as I did last cycle. Like looking back, you know, like I think I threw like 500k into useless at like 20 million market cap, and like that seemed so natural to me at the time. Yeah, whereas now that just seems like incredibly retarded. You know what I mean? Like, yeah. So I'm not sure if I could like do that level again. I think I will be better if I just I think there are lessons you learn, but I think you also lose your edge as you play this game long enough. I don't know if how do you guys feel about that?
SPEAKER_02I agree with you very fully, actually. I've been wrestling with lately, it's like pretty much that that exact same thing. I was thinking back to ARK. Uh you guys remember ARK, the AI 16Z competitor? Um I bought I bought a million I bought $1.2 million of ARK at like 170 million market cap, and I 2X'd it, two and a half X'd it or whatever. Um, and then I ended up round tripping it because I didn't sell because I wanted more, right? Because this was coming off the back of Trump, off the back of AI 16Z, and I had done really well and I was fucking greedy. Um and now I think I'm kind of scarred from round tripping that type of money and from giving back that type of money. Um, and the idea of ever putting that much money into a token again seems preposterous to me. It's like, what the hell was I thinking? Like, how can I get like how do I get back into that irrational state of mind where you can just chuck around money like that? Um, and that's what a bull market can do to you, though. It can make irrational, stupid things feel natural. Um, and right now it feels impossible for that feeling to return, but I think you know, you build it up with confidence, right? I think a win or two, a couple wins, and all of a sudden you're feeling yourself, and it markets in uh easy mode, and that kind of comes back naturally to us. I think. I like to hope. But I think the main goal is gotta be I think my thesis right now is start small again. Um you've if you've done it once and you're any good at this, you can probably do it again, starting small and making it big. Versus I don't see you know, a lot of people start changing how they trade with size, and I think that's how you lose it all. I think chucking, you know, half your net worth into a long or into a position when you're not used to trading that size is how you end up giving it all back. And I think trying to go back to to the basics is kind of my plan for whenever the cycle starts again. Yeah, Swizzle, you've just been here the whole time.
SPEAKER_03I've been here to like, yeah, and I and I obviously like I think the on one hand I kind of internalize like the willingness to round trip that uh has been damaging and creates PTST PTSD because instead of like you would like I continued to do it for longer. Um and I I think there's this recognition that like that is how you win. You know, like in when the conditions are right and and it happens, like if you haven't already, if you aren't already in the mindset, it's really hard to condition yourself all of a sudden, like, okay, now I'm gonna let things ride, I'm gonna be willing to round round trip. Like I I think you have to be willing to have that like appetite to be willing to stomach that risk. It's the only way you really do win. Um, but like what I've really done is like I don't know where things are headed, I don't know where things are trending, and I know the market isn't right. So I've tried to hang around, I've downsized dramatically, specifically on chain. Like I've downsized a lot where I'm I'm trying to basically stay in the mix, stay understanding how things are going, while recognizing I'm pretty bad at it right now because the conditions aren't right for that. Um, but I do fear like losing that. I don't I don't want to be one of these people who tries to come back and is so either tapped out or doesn't understand how things work now or clings to what things were like last cycle, and then I'm trying to do things the same way and they don't work. And so, like, I think for me, it's trying to be very like adaptive and engaged on whatever things are happening, um, being willing to accept that potentially there's a new direction or a new course. That's why I, you know, I've tried to stay really engaged with everything happening in AI in case something, you know, crypto crossover happens. I've been, you know, messing around with, you know, perps downsized again, messing around with on, you know, like different chains, all that stuff. Um but ultimately, like, I think to your point, Wood, like if you're aware enough and and you're willing to like not be stuck to the old ways, you're gonna see if if and when it happens. And and we don't know what it's gonna look like right now, but like you will see. And then it's your job to like be able to get out of that PTSD whatever way you can. And it's gonna be easier said than done, but like um, I I definitely don't want to get caught like assuming things are gonna work the same way that they did. Because a lot we saw this happen with a lot of ETH people. They just like by the time they accepted Solana, and everything that was happening there was too late. They they were behind, they didn't know how things worked, they missed the run, they were culturally out of tune. Um, and and I think there's a risk of like right now, for example, the hype and Zach, like they they sound so um obvious and over, you know, almost like noisy and crowded. But we saw the same thing happen with the Solana run where it was like you thought it was crowded, it really wasn't because there were so many people who were like annoyed by it or watching it, but they really were watching from the sidelines because they didn't want to jump in. So I'm not saying those are like trades that are gonna ignite some new movement, but I do think there's some some comparisons across the fact that like there's a lot of people who are saying the same things as us, but they're still only like trading the old way on Solana right now and assuming that it's eventually gonna go back to how exactly how it was.
SPEAKER_02I think the big thing for crypto, at least like I gravitated last cycle after DeFi Summer, I gravitated over to AVAX because there was an opportunity at uh asymmetric gains on AVAX that did not exist anymore on ETH. This cycle I gravitated to Solana because there was again an opportunity for asymmetric gains on Solana that did not exist anywhere else in crypto. So right now, when I look at things, I'm looking at it from a lens of where can I go and turn a little bit of money into a lot of money? And there's nowhere to do that in crypto right now. And I think that's what gets people fired up and excited. Like I was excited to grind all day, every day on fucking bird eye before any of those other tooling that these guys have today to find new pairs, find new tech, find people doing the same thing. And there was real money to be made if you were willing to put the time and the work in. Those opportunities don't exist right now. Um they do, but they're few and far between. And I think we need that to come back on somewhere that is new, and for that reason, it might not be Solana, it has to be something new.
SPEAKER_03Well, and I do think like I don't we don't need to talk about this a lot, but I I think a lot of it has been happening with prediction markets, to be honest. Yeah, like you look at every exchange, crypto trading volume has been down dramatically in 2026, prediction market trading volume has been up and to the right, so it's not what we're used to. We as traders don't really like it very much because the lack of asymmetric opportunity, like you're not really making a hundred X on an individual prediction markets trade, but there are high volume prediction markets traders where the liquidity needs to ramp up and all that. Like there's a lot happening there, and the metrics suggest it's on the rise. So that's something we're not super comfortable with, but it's happening though, it's a movement. Uh and it and it has a lot of attention outside of crypto circles. Um I only bring that up to say like I th I think it's it's not necessarily gonna happen in a way that we envision it. Uh we just have to be ready to see where's opportunity gonna be and and are you willing, is it worth it to adapt to it? You know?
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, definitely. Um all right, well, we'll wrap it up here, I think, guys. Um Seemeister, thanks for joining us, dude.
SPEAKER_00Oh, it's been a pleasure. Thanks for having me out, guys.
SPEAKER_02We'll have to have you back sometime um after your summer in Europe or wherever you're fucking off to.
SPEAKER_00Well, let me know if uh is Sats coming to Dubai again. I know he was here for like a week or not, but uh I think he's coming.
SPEAKER_03Talk about PTSD, I think he didn't exactly love uh land touching down right as a war program. The best marketing campaign.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you were gone in Asia while Sats landed there, and two days later he got stuck there for a month and a half in a fucking war. So I don't think it's ever coming. It wasn't that bad. It's just a bad bang. You weren't even there. He he was working out at his gym and a fucking missile hit his gym. That's not lucky. It was not a good missile. It was a small missile. He's now he's now a uh war survivor, which you can't say you are.
SPEAKER_00I was there for a little bit of it. I just wasn't there for the bad part. You know, I heard a few loud bangs. I'm sure I would get some more of it with the way things are going.
SPEAKER_02All right, let's wrap it up here. Uh come back, we'll be back for uh no, yeah. Um no, we're not gonna be here Friday. We haven't announced yet. Maybe Thursday. We're gonna be Thursday if you guys know. Thursday we'll be here probably. Um, scheduling conflict. Uh go download FOMO, check it out. Um, thank you, Seemeister, for joining us today. Um, we'll talk to you guys soon.