Risk On Podcast
Risk On with Wood, Sats, and Swizzle. Twice a week we cover the biggest stories in markets, macro, and everything in between. From crypto to equities to whatever's ripping this week.
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Risk On Podcast
SpaceX to the Moon | EP 70
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
Covering:
• SpaceX ripping to $2.7T
• ZEC comeback
• SpaceX acquires Cursor
• Is it Solana time?
And more
Episode 70, Risk On. Brought to you by FOMO. Check it out. Perps launched. I think you can trade SpaceX there now.
SPEAKER_02You can.
SPEAKER_04We can trade SpaceX anywhere, Woody.
SPEAKER_01Anywhere. Anywhere. I fucking love it. Um go check out uh FOMO. You can probably go to Risk On, trade everything you could ever imagine to. We're live. It feels like a milestone of some sort. I'm underprepared, but we're gonna we're gonna make it work. I've been uh running around having people put rugs out in my house all morning.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, well what was that picture? I just saw those two two Mexicans two Mexican gardener rug in in the crib.
SPEAKER_00My wife has go has gained an affinity for antique Persian rugs.
SPEAKER_02Oh, that's a bad one. That sounds really expensive.
SPEAKER_00You know how much these things are? They're crazy.
SPEAKER_02How much? How much was that rug there in that picture?
SPEAKER_01Uh like 45 grand.
SPEAKER_02Oh what? Oh my god, bro. You're still in the bull market, bro. 45.
SPEAKER_04That's you're not familiar with Wood's rug game, huh?
SPEAKER_02I'm not, no, I'm not. I'm not familiar with Wood.
SPEAKER_04He knows his way around around rugs. He knows his way around a good rug.
SPEAKER_02It's not his first rodeo of a Persian rug.
SPEAKER_01You peel away layers and you just find it's just I I gotta put an end to this, Mandis.
SPEAKER_02Um the whiskey, like I remember the whiskey arc a few a few months ago. Who was on the whiskey arc? What didn't you weren't you buying some fucking whiskey or something? Or some fucking stuff. I don't even drink.
SPEAKER_01I did buy a gift for somebody from our boy Todd over at Baxess.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, okay, alright. That might have been it. That might have been it. Jesus. Jesus. I was gonna say No, no, it was Boogles.
SPEAKER_01Boog Boogles bought McAllen a 20 uh 1990 cask of McAllen.
SPEAKER_02Oh yeah.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's now a proud owner of due to the value creation of having a Boogle. Amazing. There you go. There you go. Someone someone in my comments today did say, imagine listening to a Boogle in 2026. Heavy. Wood is worth listening to.
SPEAKER_02Um buys 45k Python rugs.
SPEAKER_01Um uh you know why? I did not buy SpaceX or that Persian rug might just be free. Uh Swizzle. Swizzle last episode. We had a long conversation with SpaceX. It seems like all that there is to talk about is SpaceX today. Like, have you guys talked to anybody else about anything in the last 48 hours or 72 hours?
SPEAKER_02No. No, SpaceX and Fable from uh Anthropic, that's it. And the UK banning um social media.
SPEAKER_04Wait, no. What happened? What happened there?
SPEAKER_02Oh, so I don't know if this is just like because um I'm from the UK and UK Twitter, but like pretty much everyone in the tech world has been quote tweeting this as well. And the UK plan to ban social media for under 16s. Um and they plan to do this at a device level. Um, so it can't really be bypassed with VPNs. So as soon as you buy an iPhone in the UK now, you get ID checked and you get KYC'd. And yeah, if you're not above the age of 16, you cannot use any social media at all. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01I'm gonna go on a limb and say, as a father, I like this. I I I I think I'm really out of here for this.
SPEAKER_02I I think this is uh this is a parent's decision, not a government decision.
SPEAKER_01And I think I think you can't enforce it as a parent if other parents aren't doing it.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that is true as well, but this is uh this seems like a step to push digital IDs, but it in in the name of child safety. You know, that's what this feels like to me. This feels like a way to control everyone's phone and make everyone KYC and then slap a label on it and go child safety.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, no, it's possible. It's possible. I wish, you know, like I go, and I know this isn't crypto related, but uh whatever. Um, you know, like I take my son to swim lessons, and I go and I look at the wall, and there's all these like middle school kids. They're not fucking talking to each other, they're staring at their phones, looking on TikTok, and it is the saddest thing in the world, knowing that like when I was in eighth grade, I was like fucking around my friends, going swimming, spending my summers outside, and these kids are glued to like ticked dumbass dances on TikTok all day. Yeah, I would do anything to prevent my children and other children from doing that and like wasting their melting their brains away.
SPEAKER_02I think that's valid, but I think I wouldn't be where I am today without social media if I was under 16, you know? I think it will limit growth in this country more than we can ever imagine. Like, yes, there's some bad to social media, but yes, there's some awful good.
SPEAKER_04Um it's also it's also just the precedent, right? Like, would what you're saying is is great from a theoretical, like utopian standpoint of like what you want for your kids. Like, I agree with that. I we all recognize the negative effects, but like what are the unintended consequences of allowing the government to make these types of decisions and basically decide who can be on there, who can't be on there. Like that's an insane slippery slope, right?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, definitely. Yeah, where does this end, you know?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, where does it end? I I I don't disagree with that, and I ultimately think it is up to the parents to figure that out. Um but I don't trust 99% of people to make the right decision for themselves. I guess we'll see where it happens. I mean, is this thing passed fully? Like it's happening.
SPEAKER_02It's happening. It's happening.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, and how are they gonna enforce that? They just basically anyone who buys a phone that has to be like the phones have to be sold through like accredited platforms or like you can see. It will be through Apple and Google.
SPEAKER_02Apple and Google.
SPEAKER_04Only Apple and Google can sell them through these actualized entities and then and then uh Apple and Google. You have the KYC, and it's basically gets registered to the identity for that phone, and then uh it's just gets blocked.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you know, you know when you like set up your iPhone or you s whatever you have, and like you go through that little process. Part of that process in the UK now. If you buy a phone in the UK, it will be you have to uh verify with a credit card or you have to verify with a passport or full KYC. Um which is kind of crazy, man.
SPEAKER_04I hate to do it because this is this show we said there's only two things going on SpaceX and hype, but that sounds very Zcash coded to me. Does it yeah?
SPEAKER_02I was gonna say crazy guys, you know, massive privacy guys um in the UK seem to seem to hate that, you know.
SPEAKER_04They seem to have- I feel like that is that is the backlash. Sorry, it's not actually a Zcash related thing, but it's like yeah, what ends up happening is you're just gonna have like a crazy black market for like like off-book unregistered phones and stuff like that, right? Like that that's the clear network effect of it.
SPEAKER_02There's already people setting up shops and shit selling saying they're gonna sell iPhones bought in America and ship them to the UK.
SPEAKER_04That's already something like sounds like you're then there will be an American business or an Asian business or whatever, where they just make it easy for you to get connected, and uh you'll have network providers who can bypass these things.
SPEAKER_02Um now they are considering as well. I saw this today from the head of technology at the UK, and she was saying at trying to remove access to VPNs, which just isn't possible. And our head of technology clearly doesn't understand technology technology, yeah. It's not possible, you know. You can't remove access to like removing access to a VPN would kill all the whole banking system as well. It would kill everything.
SPEAKER_01It sounds like that sounds like you got uh Michael Scott running for the average person.
SPEAKER_04You can you can use like VPN, they could use VPN blockers and stuff though, right?
SPEAKER_02They could, but like it's uh at a high level the the idea of banning a VPN just doesn't that doesn't that doesn't work, you know. That doesn't it can't work doesn't the way she's describing it is literally like it would kill the whole country.
SPEAKER_04Um I don't know man, they pretty successfully stopped me from watching Netflix when I'm in Europe. I've never been able to figure that one out, you know. Really? Really? Yeah, I can't I can't get on the streaming platforms. They they block you even if you have your VPNs running and whatever. YouTube TV, uh Netflix, like they'll maybe Netflix works, but like YouTube TV, the the live streaming platforms for sure, they'll block uh block VPN usage.
SPEAKER_02That's a weird one. Because we don't we don't block Netflix or YouTube. We have that. We have that for now.
SPEAKER_01Speaking of the Euros being annoying, uh Binance out in Europe now.
SPEAKER_02You see that? Yeah, it leaves them in a bit of a tricky spot. Like banned in the US, banned in Europe, uh, banned in the UK. Uh so you know Is this bullish hyperliquid? It's gotta be. It's gotta be hyperliquid's blocked everywhere too, though. But it's no case. Yeah, but like the users, the users are much more educated, um, and they don't have to KYC. It's a simple job of a VPN. I think that's a good question, actually.
SPEAKER_04Like, like it feels like when we hear that stuff, we're like, man, ultimately Binance has had this coming. We didn't know when it was gonna happen, how it was gonna happen, but these guys have had it coming, right? Like they've done so much shit, uh and they've just been in a position of like having a stranglehold. But like um I do wonder like if crypto becomes more accessible and more seamless across all these different venues and everything, and like the average user just like they don't have to think about it as much. Uh is is Binance in trouble? Like, are we seeing the end of the days of of like CZ and and this group being able to basically just kind of you know dictate how things are gonna work and and bully competitors out and all that? Like, like is this kind of like a I know I don't I'm sure they still have massive stranglehold on Asia, but like is Binance kind of losing its um like pole positioning in the market?
SPEAKER_02I feel like I feel like they lost it a while ago, you know.
SPEAKER_01I feel like they lost yeah, I do if you look at SpaceX on-chain volume, you know, who did 60% of it. Damn, is it Binance? Binance.
SPEAKER_04Really?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's the Asian. Everyone's jizzing over hype, everyone's jizzing over backpack, and it's fucking Binance dominating the Asian part, uh, the SpaceX parts market. We and Swiss were just like a lot of people.
SPEAKER_04We don't think those numbers are fine, don't think it's real.
SPEAKER_01I mean, probably fake to some degree, but like numbers.
SPEAKER_02Knowing Binance data. What?
SPEAKER_01Knowing Binance, you know, it could you know probably potentially could be, but I thought that was the most interesting stat I read in the last couple in the last 48 hours was that Binance because everyone is like losing their mind over how hyperliquid, 24-7, perpetual feud, whatever, markets. And here you have good old Binance just chugging along, been doing it forever, same product. Like, what's different about the Binance product?
SPEAKER_04Well, what's is that it's centralized? Are they doing 24-7 or 24-5? Like, I think Coinbase is doing 24-5.
SPEAKER_01Binance goes all day every day. There's no way they're not 24-7.
SPEAKER_04With with uh with with equities as well.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah, they're often the same product, but there's barrier to entry, and you know, you can't be a euro, you can't be an American, and all this stuff. What did Coinbase announced today? They announced something along the line. Yeah, same thing. I wanted to talk about that. I it just got announced like an hour ago.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. One-to-one backed tokenized stocks.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, one-to-one. Let me look at what Brian said. But yeah, so they're entering the arena. Everybody's entering that arena for the first time. Um, here, I'll send it to you, Henry. You can pop it open. Oh, Fizzle already did it. Yeah, pop this up, Henry. Yeah, real one-on-one back tokenized are coming. Uh tokenized shares of US companies, no derivatives, no IOUs. Interesting.
SPEAKER_02So, yeah. There's no no derivatives, this is real ownership. This is I guess they can do this because everyone's KYC'd, do you know? And they're literally just buying the stock on the back end um through a different provider, and then giving you the stock on Coinbase instead of doing what other people do.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. I mean, isn't this essentially like it now it's just becoming like Robinhood? Like Coinbase is gonna pivot to becoming Robinhood. It'll be the same thing, but they'll have more crypto native people on it. Yeah, this is exactly what this is.
SPEAKER_02It feels a little is is when all the crypto people get access to stocks the top.
SPEAKER_01I don't know, but like, I mean, I don't know if you guys were following along in a chat yesterday, someone referred to uh equity perps being more PVE than tokens right now, and I almost spit out my drink. Like it was like the it was maybe the dumbest thing I've ever read in my life. We got crypto guys uh Frank. Okay, interesting. Saying that crypto uh perps are uh equity perps are more PVE than tokens. Like yeah, no shit. You got like fucking boomers, 401ks, mass bidding things. There's an infinite bid.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and on all on our precious shit coins, there's no one, there's no bits.
SPEAKER_01On our precious shit coins, it's like it's like it's like one chat versus another chat, like who's gonna win when we have like ten dollars at stake. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Um you feel like on this whole Bitcoin move up as well, no no one's even no one even cares anymore. My timeline just doesn't even care. Yeah, like only at 65.
SPEAKER_04Oh, you're saying on Sunday when we when we popped.
SPEAKER_02Oh, I mean, from the from the bottom, we're 12% up. No one gives a fuck.
SPEAKER_04No one gives a fuck. I actually I do think it's funny, like, there's just this on crypto twitter, there's this constant like stream of them come of people complaining and saying like crypto under underperforms and there's you know like equities are ripping and all that stuff, which is like, yes, in terms of like uh the vol if you factor in volatility and you know like consistency and all that, like it's clearly been a better place to be over the last like year or so, right? But like it's funny, then it's like they don't say anything on Sunday when all the all the major altcoins rip 25-30% from Sunday to Tuesday and no one says anything. Bitcoin's up, you know, it has a nice, you know, like maybe it's because they they expect us to cascade back down and they think new lows are coming or whatever, but it's like it's so convenient to complain about it when uh when they have bad days and then there's certain you know specific altcoins that outperform and no one factors that into their dialogue. I I just think it's an interesting uh interesting paradigm that like it's like we can't get away from just complaining about the situation rather than looking at what's actually happening.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it's a bit of a weird one. Although one of my charts does look good and is recovering secretly under the radar while no one speaks about it as well. Fetch Zcash. No, not fetch, not fetch AI, thankfully. But Zcash is actually slowly recovering. Once again, not really seeing people mention it um at all at the moment. I feel like I feel like a lot of this is a lot of things in a way. Let me let me send this to you.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I mean it look it looks like it survived the exploit.
SPEAKER_01Like Sats, are you long Zcash still? You haven't you haven't wavered your brain? I wanted to talk about this. You've you've you've had a weekend, no one's talking about crypto anymore. I haven't seen much about Zcash, like it's off my timeline now. Ansom's not shilling it, thread guest's not shilling. No one's shilling Zcash anymore. Yeah, everyone's just shilling SpaceX. You're still holding your like we're good to go.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, no, I'm still I'm still I'm still hopeful. I'm still hopeful. I still think we're good to go.
SPEAKER_01500 is a great price, dude. It tanks exactly. Now we're looking good.
SPEAKER_02I'm surprised when I woke up and saw this. I thought, like, we're gonna be lower. Like, I've been hawkeying this for a few days, and I didn't check for like two or three days, woke up, 500. Should have seen the smile on my face, it was ridiculous. But yeah, all the shillers have gone home. Naval, I just dropped this tweet. And if you want to bring this up, Henry, Naval's tweeting, uh, retweeted something yesterday uh of a tweet which says, if the cryptographic, if the cryptography breaks, there's no reason to use blockchain, you can go home. Um also saying there, like that the problem with quantum. Um, and Google now estimates 1200 logical keys will break. And this is for 2028. You know, this is slightly worrying. Um, I think this is a problem everyone underestimates still, but maybe I'm just bear pills.
SPEAKER_01I think it's definitely something people are underestimating. Yeah, and it's currently I mean, dude, there's no fix, like we're gonna have these these models that can crack things that no human brain has cracked in decades. Yeah, and we're just like, nah, but blockchain's good. Blockchain's good. Blockchain's good. Smartest people in the world did it, audited by everybody, no big deal, only been around for 15 years. We're good. Um, I I I'm a little I'm kind of nervous about everything though, with as it relates to this. Yeah, um but like don't we just employ LLMs to defend against the other LLMs though? Battle of the LLMs. Are we just gonna battle each other and it'll be whoever is the better win?
SPEAKER_04Fuck. Yeah, legitimately, yes. Legitimately, right? Yeah, and that like even the whole Zcash thing that happened, that that's that was them being proactive. Like, okay, we're going to do the best security audits that we can, and we're gonna find the specialists who can basically you know try to figure these things out before the attack, you know, before the attackers can figure it out, right? And um to me, it's like it's funny that Bitcoin sells off with all this stuff. It's like to your point, would I am much more concerned about the consequences of like the banking system and all these like the the current encryption, like you know, uh military defense and all that, like all these really, really like important things that are using encryption systems today that are viewed as like like unbreakable or you know impenetrable.
SPEAKER_01I think that like there are existential risks to a lot of our life that we're not really fully um taking into account. But you know, over the weekend there is interesting things, Sats, and I think you probably have a lot to say about this, as will Swizzle. Um, how the government shut down the most recent anthropic model, Fable, right? Yeah, yeah. Can you break down why that happened, Sats, and like what what about it was so dangerous in the government's eyes?
SPEAKER_02So there's still a lot of speculation on why it's happened. Yeah, there's still a lot of speculation on why it's happened. Someone did leak. I don't know if this was fully confirmed or anything, but someone did leak that it was because China got access to Fable. Um, and then they just pulled the plug. Um, and Dario, the CEO of Anthropic, was having a lot of pushback. He didn't want to pull, he didn't want to, he didn't want to patch the the holes that they that they assumedly leaked, and I think Amazon whistleblowed to the government, um, and they pulled the plug. But this was crazy. This was literally like I was I was midway through using this, you know. I was building something and it just fucking stopped working, and I was like, oh my you yeah, I was like, oh my usage must have run out, like I must have just blew through a grand here in usage because I have my like I have my uh my limit set to a thousand dollars every day. What what I can go through, and I thought you spend a thousand bucks a day on this stuff. No, but I can I can go through it real easy, especially with you just pay for this, you just eat a thousand bucks a day. Yeah, yeah, I just eat the thousands. If it really spending three hundred grand a year on tokens, personally. No, no, no, no, because uh I don't use this thousand dollars every day, you know. I use maybe I maybe spend a thousand dollars a week, thousand dollars a week, especially, bro. This this fable is expensive. This is expensive now. Opus, I was I would get away with never really hitting my limit. I would never hit the limit on Opus ever. With this, I blew through it in three hours. I was near, I was at full limit in in three hours. Um insane.
SPEAKER_01All right, so go back. Sorry, I cut you out. That was just an increasing amount of money for me to spend on this stuff.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so this start like it just stopped working. I thought I hit my limit. Um I open up Twitter and I see this. I was like, what the fuck? This is why I don't like that. At first, they banned it for all you like all people outside the US, and then they just okay, then they took it away from everyone. But to me, this is controversial as well. But to me, this feels extremely better than Opus. This feels really good. It feels like a massive step. Um, other people are saying that then you know it feels overhyped. I don't agree. I don't think you're getting the use out of it. I don't think you're using it in the right way. This is way more powerful, but it is just crazy expensive, like I said.
SPEAKER_01Like, all right. So, anyways, why was it shut down? So China gets it, Amazon whistleblows, what's the danger to people? And is Dario just like talking his shit and they're shutting it down? Down to pump the IPO price, given that Trump wants to take equity ownership in it?
SPEAKER_02Probably. Probably. But that's the thing. No one really knows the exact reason yet of why it was shut down. Yeah, people were saying, like this tweet Henry has up, Chinese government have access, they got access to mythos. Our best case scenario here for the end user is that China get access and they somehow reverse engineer it, and we end up with an open source version, or we end up with something dramatically cheaper, what drives these prices down because they're getting insane. They're getting insane very, very fast, and it's becoming like you know how the whole talk of like the permanent underclass. Yeah. Um and this whole thing, I feel like this accelerates it. This accelerates it, and and how AI is getting so expensive, this will just accelerate. Because this fable model is not accessible to the regular person. Like it just isn't. If you're a regular working person, you can't spend that amount on tokens as I spent on in one day. It's honestly you build in something with a remote level of complexity and it will eat your tokens. Even if you have the max plan, I have the max plan on on 20x, like what costs alone, like I don't know, $200 a month, $250, and then on top, I'm spending another sometimes up to $500 a day, especially with this fable model in that in them first in them first few days. But maybe I was going crazy with it, yes. And I do use it in a very aggressive way. Um but still, it is how far can we go, you know? Like what's gonna be the next model? Is the next model gonna be two more two times more expensive than this?
SPEAKER_01Like, and there's no one left to subsidize this at this point, like yeah, yeah. And so what do you so yeah, the permit, whatever. So who can afford this? Can businesses afford to even use this? Is it like sustainable for anyone to use? No, I and like how do you drive costs down? Because data centers, all we're just gonna need more of them, we're gonna need to build more shit. And I read a tweet a while ago that these companies should trade more like manufacturing companies instead of tech companies, because of just how expensive these things are to operate. Like, their margins have to be dog shit. Like if they're charging us this much, and they're probably eating some of their margin too. There's no way they're making money.
SPEAKER_02No, 100%. I don't think they're making money either, but I think the plan is like it will just eventually get cheaper, so and they're gonna have the best models. So this is just the only way to do like what are they gonna do? Pause development because costs too too high? No way, these guys aren't gonna they're gonna raise more money and go for it again because it is just insanely good. It is insanely good. Um, and the funny the the weird thing with this as well, um, which was kind of controversial when this first came out, you can't use fable or mythos on smart contracts. You cannot use it on crypto, it just doesn't work. It doesn't work. It will say like this is outside of my arena. This is I don't I can't I can't work on smart contracts because of exploits. You literally cannot use Fable. Yeah, which is fucking crazy to me. I really tried it. Um but yeah, they they've completely removed the ability to uh do anything with this LLM um regarding a smart contract. Because I guess the exploits would have just been rampant, but it you know it begs the question like this needs to be privatized, really. What do you mean? This needs to be open source.
SPEAKER_01Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, I think there's gonna end up being a whole business of like private equity companies who just like find companies using LLMs and flip them over to Chinese ones and just make a fucking killing eventually.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, what I want to do, my long-term thing is like next two or three years, I want to have my own, like when these eventually get forked and open sourced. I want to be able to have my own running on my local machine. Like, I want to be how able to have my own LLM on my own computer, um, which is never gonna go down because I own it and I'm providing the GPU, I provide the data where it needs. Um, because then it can't be taken away from me. Because I don't like that's the next logical step for everybody. I think for I think for everybody, but obviously it's not like a it's not a thing everyone's gonna do, you know. You can't tell people go, but you're gonna need to power your own LLM and like this might be expensive. You might need a lot of RAM, you might need a lot of like you might need more than your average level GPUs or RAM for this. But for me, I think that is definitely worth it because this is a great example. I can't I don't want this again. I don't want to not have access to the best model. Like, I don't want one day anthropic to go, UK users cannot use this anymore, we're only gonna offer it to US citizens. That's yeah, that would fucking suck for me.
SPEAKER_01Like, yeah, as you're building things right now, do you feel that you have a serious leg up by always upgrading to the newest models? Yeah, and by paying for it and by but be but having the capital to pay for whatever you need to pay to be able to build with these new things, like you can build faster, better than your competitors.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 100%. Everyone, everyone who I know who uses AI on the same level I do, we've all said that this fable version is just ten times better, and now we have to use Opus. It feels useless, it feels shit. But this is this is always the way it is. It's like when you get the new iPhone, you know? You get the new iPhone and you go, wow, can't use the other one, the other one sucks really bad. Or when the new iPhone comes out, all of a sudden yours feels awful as well. Um I haven't read this without people. How could you keep that so? Yeah, it he's right. There is no competition. It is it is generational. Um, but maybe I'm I'm hyperglazing anthropic here when I shouldn't be. But this is from someone who you I use I use every single LLM. I run code through Codex, I run code through Fable, Opus, um, any good LLM out there. I'm just starting to use one of the Chinese ones as well. Um really give it a go. But I'm deep in the hole.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, sounds like it. Um, all right. So I want to pivot over, talk about SpaceX. That's all anybody has been fucking talking about. Yeah. Um Swizzle, who's not here, maybe he'll be back soon. SpaceX hits three trillion market cap overnight. Elon made more money in the last 24 hours than Buffett made in his entire lifetime. Granted, it's you know, locked up, and this is like it's crazy. I I don't think I fully appreciated that they were truly gonna run the low-float high FTV Ponti on it. Yeah, like it really like the whole trillion dollar market, the market cap doesn't matter. Like FTV is a meme, right? Like the old saying in a bull market crypto guy is always like I remember you remember uh on near, I on near last cycle, there was this coin called uh Aurora, yeah. It went to like 35 billion FTV or something preposterous, and the float was like 500 million, yeah. And it just kept ripping, and it was like people were like, I can't buy this, the FTV is this. And it was like, don't focus on the FTV, focus on the current market cap because like what's gonna happen? And shame on shame on you for being sideline sats. Um saying last episode you were gonna buy. But what's gonna happen is all the forced buying from passive floats is gonna start to kick in soon, and the float's five percent, and it's gonna fucking rip more, I think.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, let me look at the chart right now. Is it is it is it rough for it to be sidelined? It is, it is. However, oh man, I've you know, I've got no excuse. I should have bought this. Is uh obvious in hindsight, you know.
SPEAKER_01Really obvious in hindsight. I think I think you know, uh XY wrote wrote a really good tweet about this. I don't want to glaze him too much because his ego's already very large. Um, but um he did he did say uh I think the tweet was something along the lines of like, you know, usually when CT is all behind something, uh you fade CT sentiment. But he thought that in this case, we're such experts on this low-float high FTV crime that we just knew it was gonna fucking rip. Um and here it is. A lot of people have made a lot of money in CT off this.
SPEAKER_02They have, yeah. Did you see that tweet I just put in uh our group of Elon's comp package? This is some of the most insane shit I've ever read, by the way.
SPEAKER_01Um Elon's compensation package of SpaceX is structured around two targets. The first award vest of the company reaches a valuation of 7.5 trillion and establishes a permanent human colony on Mars of at least one million people. Yeah, like are we joking? Are we crazy? Vest is that SpaceX operates data centers in space that draw at least 100 terawatts of power, more than a thousand X, the consumption of every data center on Earth combined.
SPEAKER_04Time out, this is not real, right?
SPEAKER_02This has gotta be this is this is a screenshot from from uh from Twitter.com. No, no, from P Moss's uh thing, I think. No, yeah, it is. It is. This is this is from Mark Andresid. Yeah, this is in his this is in his article here.
SPEAKER_01I mean, I hope this is real. I mean, dude, all this does is create a narrative around the price going up because it's like this is our North Star. So we gotta value you at whatever your North Star is.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and look at what this guy's trying to do, bro. A permanent human colony on Mars of at least a million people. This guy doesn't own nothing.
SPEAKER_01Man, a billion being a billionaire, your your head really doesn't link to your head, doesn't it? I mean, or maybe I just can't think big enough.
SPEAKER_04No, this is just very factually incorrect. There's no way, but it's awesome. It's still awesome, and we're gonna allow it for the sake of this show. We're gonna allow it. I don't not believe it. I don't believe it. No, I mean, isn't it it's public disclosures that he's got like 40% on of an unlock after the first year or something, right?
SPEAKER_02Nah.
SPEAKER_04I think we have sent you guys the unlock schedule.
SPEAKER_02Uh well, and you reckon Big P Mars's tweeted this with no he hasn't done it.
SPEAKER_04Yes, I reckon he did. I don't think there was anything in the disclosures about a human colony on Mars for uh qualifying for the unlocks.
SPEAKER_02This is literally like I said, we're gonna allow it.
SPEAKER_01Dude, that is the first sentence from that that is the first paragraph.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that you can't miss this, you know. I feel like this is your I feel like that's real, it's not fake.
unknownYeah, it's completely real.
SPEAKER_01I feel like it's real. Yeah, I feel like it's real. We don't feel like it's real. There's no way Mark Andre Anderson wrote this article. It's been viewed 67 million times.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and he literally says in the It's the first paragraph. You don't even have to read the whole thing. Read the first paragraph. Let me ask Claude for it.
SPEAKER_04I saw someone else said, like, uh, like of all the the rich people that we choose, like, you know, this whole group of people chooses to be mad at uh and and dislike, the guy who's becoming a trillionaire is the one who's continuing to try to like create space like life on outside of Earth and like build the robots of the future and all this stuff. It's like meanwhile, we would all retire at two million dollars or something like that.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, okay, okay, folks. So I I've just asked our beloved Claude on this, and he says, uh, yes, this this is real. This is real, this is factual. So there we go. We're gonna get a colony on Mars, folks, or this guy's gonna win no no bread.
SPEAKER_01I mean, so basically, Elon is gonna 2x SpaceX. I think it 2x's in the next month, probably. You're gonna put it. I genuinely think that until and it's gonna rip into unlocks, and then once unlocks start, we'll start to get we'll start to get punished a little bit. But I think until unlocked start, you just fucking rail in.
SPEAKER_04Are you going to and are you gonna do that, would yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_02I don't think so. I'm gonna do that.
SPEAKER_04Are you giving advice to our listeners to do that? But are you gonna do it but not do it yourself?
SPEAKER_01I'm personally not going to do it myself because I I I am a uh risk-averse child, uh uh risk-averse grown-up at this point. Um, and I will get more passive exposure to it through other things. Um but I do think that's probably the move to buy it. Maybe I will buy it. Who knows? Maybe I'll talk myself into it. Maybe buy the next pullback. Maybe I'll buy it sub 200. Does it pull back?
SPEAKER_04It's a hell of a green candle right there. That's a great candle.
SPEAKER_02Is it though? That that is a green candle, like he's building this colony on Mars. That's a Mars candle. It is. That's a Mars candle card. The second candle is the the data centers that uh produce more than the hundred, hundred X, the uh or a thousand X the uh the consumption of of Earth combined. That's the second green candle right there.
SPEAKER_01Now the big question is, and I saw a flood tweet this morning that markets top this year. The big question is people are equating this to being the market top for the year. Like this mania, this dislocation from reality in terms of valuation. How what do you say to that?
SPEAKER_04I think personally, I think it's the wrong way to be thinking about this. It could be right, it could not, it could not be. But if this event shows you anything, and like we've we've seen the IPO craze come cyclically in moments of time historically, right? We've we've seen these moments in the past. But like for me, what this highlights is on the most magnanimous, like grand scale we have seen, the SpaceX IPO is the big, you know, this is the biggest, most retail accessible IPO we've seen. And it's amalgamating all these top, you know, companies with all the buzzword industries and everything with Elon. But what it shows me is like the the way that trade the financialization of assets and trading and markets as a whole, the way that they are and the way that they exist in the world and how people have access to them now is just fundamentally different. So to me, I think it's the wrong mindset to have to continuously be trying to time tops, time bottoms, talk about really like the macroeconomic effects of whatever's gonna happen. This is the future like retail and institutions and everyone hyper focusing on specific assets at a time, specific asset classes at a time. And I think this like retail frenzy combined with institutions doing the same thing, like I think we're just gonna see things trade off of mind share. And so if you're focused on trying to time macro tops, you're going to miss the fact that there's always going to be something that volume is and and liquidity is like a magnet to. That's what I think I'm trying to reframe my brain around right now, is like we live in an attention economy. And I think in a weird way, like crypto is early to all of this, to people have hung around because it's like we experienced like the early the early like uh internet days of this iteration of it, we were trading what turned out to be mostly worthless vapor. But like this is what the this is what finance is now. Um I I don't think that's going away. It's gonna the the liquidity is gonna rotate to something else, and there will be something to trade, in my opinion. I don't know if you guys agree with that take, but like I I just I don't think Flood is focusing on the right things that are that are helpful to people who are are thinking about how to capitalize on this moment in history.
SPEAKER_02I think he's is he just more talking about like overall stocks and shit as well, like everything? I think so, yeah. Yeah, I I think I think I think he is, and but this leaves the question as well. We've been saying this since the dawn of time. What the fuck happens to Bitcoin when stocks overall top, you know? Like and this is basically.
SPEAKER_04My point is though, like what comes next? Everyone's gonna focus on anthropic, right?
SPEAKER_03Yep, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_04The same thing. Every it doesn't matter if markets are weak or strong, everything is gonna be in anticipation of anthropic.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I do want to call out Swizzle's usage of the word magnanimous. I had to look that up. Great word. That's a good one. Incredible display of vocabulary, by the way. Come on, Swizzle. That's a good one. Reflexing on our heads.
SPEAKER_04I looked that one up before the show.
SPEAKER_01Just to ring it off. Just to bring it off.
SPEAKER_04I was like, I don't know where I'm gonna put this in there, but that's a good word.
SPEAKER_01I gotta my fucking wife uses big words around me all the time, and I don't know if it's to like fuck with me to show me that she's more intelligent than me or what it is, but she fucking loves to do it. So just to dunk on you a little bit, just dunking on me, and I'll look at her like you know I don't know what that word means. Um options are trading tomorrow. Could gamma squeeze to 400? I mean, I'd believe that. I believe that too.
SPEAKER_04It it doesn't, it sounded crazy uh on maybe on Thursday, it doesn't sound crazy now.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it doesn't sound too crazy now. Yeah. Man, I'm so sidelined. Fuck. Sort of me now.
SPEAKER_01Your Zcash is up at least, right?
SPEAKER_02It is, yeah. But like, come on, man, this was easy pickings and I faded it. This was easy pickings. Of course it wasn't even.
SPEAKER_04Do you guys remember what this the IP at the circle? I know this is like totally different scale, what the circle IPO price was.
SPEAKER_02No, yeah. Uh no, I don't remember what it was, but I just remember it ripping. Like, did you say that?
SPEAKER_04What did it open that?
SPEAKER_02Let me let me see. So IPO price. It opened that IPO to $31. 31, yeah. 31.
SPEAKER_04And what did it it ripped up to almost $300, I think? Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Okay. It was crazy. That was that was that was insane. That was an insane. What if SpaceX goes to goes to a band? Jesus. Imagine the valuation would literally be just crazy.
SPEAKER_01I'm not gonna lie, if SpaceX did that, I would sell everything I have. Yeah, I would have to. Like, into what?
SPEAKER_04Dent to what? Just dollars or gold bars?
SPEAKER_01Dent to dollars and gold bars and go live in a forest somewhere for a decade until the economy came back. For a decade. It's gotta be the forever time.
SPEAKER_04It's not crazy because everything you just said about the low float high FDV, and it's like Circle did a 9x from IPO in like in like a week before it ended up kind of like having the floor fall out. The mind share, the liquidity, like the amount of people who care about this is just exponentially higher on this.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy. Um yeah, um, another another thing I saw was that backpacks tokenize SPCX flipped uh hype as well in the last 24 hours.
SPEAKER_02Really?
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Who the fuck uses backpack?
SPEAKER_01Slana man. The Slana foundation.
SPEAKER_04What did it flip? What did it flip hyper?
SPEAKER_01Hyperliquid SPCX volume.
SPEAKER_02Damn. Which is interesting. Yeah, that is. I mean, maybe I'm just wrong. Maybe I'm just underestimating backpack, but I don't know a single person goes, hmm.
SPEAKER_04That one's no I'm using the that one's I don't know. Fact check that a little bit.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, can we get some fact checks on the numbers then?
SPEAKER_04I don't know if I can just read that on on x.com.com just and just buy that one.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, well, I I do that all the time. I take things at face value. I believe everything I read on the internet, so very fair. That's just me. The other thing I want to talk about was have you there there's been a lot of shit talking about about Ansem lately on the internet. What's he does? Nothing. Um I like Ansom. I think he's great for the space. I like that he's back bullposting points again, and I like that he kind of takes it upon himself to be like, I'm a main character here. It's kind of like my like in the way that Kobe used to do it. It's Ansem's responsibility to like come in and bullpost shit coins. Like who else if like if Ansom's not gonna do it, no one else is gonna do it. I love that. It's his responsibility. He has to do it. I do think that. I think that it's good for the space and it's needed, like from a confidence point of view.
SPEAKER_04I also think he's people hate him for it, though. People have been throwing around commentary about him being a top signal, and I'm like, he has been directionally right far more often than not. Um as I think about it, like he's you know, he hasn't timed exact, you know, things correctly, but like I feel like he's been very directionally accurate for the most part.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think so as well. He when he gets bearish, everyone just hates him though, don't they?
SPEAKER_04Everyone literally just Yeah, they just don't like it, but he's he's generally been right.
SPEAKER_02He has. He has. He's killed this cycle, if we're being honest.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, he's getting a lot of hate being getting called the top signal, and it's like, I don't know, I feel like I feel like that's unfair. But um, yeah. Uh last thing is we got Warsh's first FOMC coming up.
unknownUh
SPEAKER_01We got Bank of America hiking rates, Europe hiking rates. Warsh is supposed to keep them where they are, but it'll be interesting to see what Trump's puppet's gonna do.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, he's been dropped into an interesting spot. Dropped into an interesting spot. He's not inherited the best situation. Um we'll see, man. It's gonna be weird without JP. It is been a long time.
SPEAKER_01JP's been there for what, eight years? Was there for how long? Eight years?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel like every FOMC I I even remember doing this shit has always been JP. And we always used to make these these uh these edits of the personality. Yeah, the JP memes were the best. Yeah, especially when he came out and said like come out and say he was cutting or something, everyone goes crazy. Everyone's betting on if he's got a fucking purple tile or something. If he came out of a red, if he came out of a purple tile, it was bearish. So much lore, so much lore unfolded with him.
SPEAKER_01Speaking of betting, what's have you guys been betting on the World Cup at all? And if you have been, has it been happening on prediction markets or traditional sports betting sites?
SPEAKER_02I have not, I have not, but it seems like prediction markets are sort of making a like they're they're such a big threat now to traditional sports books. I saw something the other day of Calchi are now 10%, only 10% still though, 10% of overall sports book volume. Um, so they've taken 10% of market share away from from sports books. Um we've got a long way to go. We've got a long way to go, and this is crazy as well. Someone, someone yesterday put a million dollars on Spain to win against Cape Verde, and they drew they drew. Oh no.
unknownYeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_02And Cape Verde found their their right back on LinkedIn. They cold messaged him on LinkedIn to find him. A very unserious team. This is this is this is this is just not true. I feel like this guy is just piecing together a load of heap of shit and chucking it in, by the way.
SPEAKER_01So, what would it take for British and markets to overtake traditional gambling bookies and all that? And like why and why, and I guess why would it?
SPEAKER_02Because I I think sports books are inherently predatory just on how they work. They don't want winners, um, they don't want winners, and they will naturally ban winners from the site because they operate in a way of uh you know how like b-booking works in um prop, like prop firms in crypto, where they'll like they'll take the so basically like how a lot of these uh prop firms work in crypto is they'll they'll wait for the user to take a trade and they'll take the opposite side of the trade. Um, and because most people lose, this is what sports books do as well. And obviously, if they've got a bunch of winners on the platform, they're losing, they're losing trades uh because these guys are winning. That's why they limit the accounts, that's why they ban the accounts. Prediction markets don't have this problem because you're trading, you're trading, you're not trading against an entity, you're trading against other people. It's a market, you know, it's a free market. Um, you could win a hundred times and nothing will be affected. Uh, the polymarkets, the culchis, all these guys would never feel if it's great if someone wins, you know, it doesn't affect them at all. So I think the model is just broken with with sports books, and the prediction market model of sports trading over sports betting is inherently better, and I think it it it takes over very, very slowly, but I think it takes over eventually. I think within 10 years, I don't I think prediction markets are come way, way, way better off than sports books.
SPEAKER_04I agree. I I think they completely disrupt. I think traditional sports books are really are gonna be proven soon to not have a place to exist anymore. Um, I think there's a couple things that you talked about. Like one of the traditional like sportsbook attacks, we've seen Matt Calish from DraftKings like attacking prediction markets, and and one of the complaints is about like the market makers, right? Like all these market makers come on and are providing liquidity and like trading the spreads. They view that as a negative thing. In reality, it's not because it's not pred, it's not in any way negative to the user. All it does is actually make the bets more the um the predictions more liquid, right? It allows people to trade in and out. Um, and yes, the spreads can be tighter, et cetera. Like that's how they the the quote unquote lines are managed compared to the traditional sports books. But the result is it allows people to not be limited on on the orders they want to make, and it allows, like at the end of the day, these are still binary outcomes. So it just enables a better system. And that's where we're seeing. We just saw like these seven-figure uh predictions come in on one side or the other that were able to be filled. Um, if you saw one come in uh with a DraftKings or any of these other like entities, the next person that tries to go do that would just basically have it blocked, right? Like they just wouldn't, there's a there's a point where the prop firms would just not allow that to happen because they're not gonna take on the risk because they're taking the other side. Um these are these are like markets that get put into equilibrium and like the market makers help uh make that more efficient. They basically add to the product for the consumers. And um I don't know, I think this is a breakout moment for crypto. I think it's a breakout moment for like this infrastructure as a whole because we're seeing like a shift in real time, and the World Cup is like a perfect example of like, you know, it's a big enough event that's allowing this to be showcased. And um the the fact that those, you know, there's a lot of advertisement around how crazy those wagers are, but it's like the fact that they went through and weren't limited and people could do them, um, it's it's it's just a new paradigm, you know?
SPEAKER_02Um it is, and I don't think it's one that's people I reckon by the end of next, like I think the World Cup is obviously a massive betting event, but I think the end of the next NBA season, the next NFL season, I think we're in a massively different spot. I think people slowly realize that prediction markets are just a better way of doing this and doing what they usually do. There's more options, you don't get suspended during key moments in the game. Like a lot of these sports books say if a penalty happens in the World Cup, they'll suspend betting. In prediction markets, you're free to trade whenever you want. This is a massive difference, and I think there's a massive distinction between, like I said, sports books and these prediction markets and trading versus betting. I think we have a massive shift to trading, it makes people feel smarter as well, you know. Oh, I'm a I'm a sports trader, not a sports better. Okay, that makes it okay then.
SPEAKER_01Oh, yeah. And you think, like I I guess all the things you guys are saying make sense for people trading volume, right? For people bigger betters. What about the guy who casually bets NBA games with five bucks? Why is he gonna leave DraftKings and go to Calci or whatever the new app is?
SPEAKER_02Still makes sense because it's like you can trade in real time. I think that's a massive, massive distinction. That they will suspend your bets. They will suspend your bets. And if you're a guy with if you're a guy with five dollars, you know, you're betting casually, you just want to enjoy the games, you still want to win. No, you still want to win. Like you're paying to win money. And what you you know, in the back of your mind still, even though it's the off chance that you may make money, that they're just gonna ban you, just gonna ban your account if you make money. Like, what what sort of fucking precedent does that set? Um, you're you're literally playing on a platform where they don't want you to win, they're doing everything to make sure you don't win um and then still keep you going. Don't think it's uh a healthy way to retain users when there's a different option out there. I think they they've done so well in the past because there's been no other option, but now there simply is a better option. There is a better alternative. So I think it's just a way of education, it's like a it's a time of education. Um, how quickly can these prediction markets educate their user base on why this is a better solution? Um, and when that happens, I think we see a dramatic shift.
SPEAKER_04But and if and if for no other reason the fees are gonna be lower, right? Because this way lower, yeah. This is like a it's the same way you you see with all these commodities-driven industries, like the fees are gonna go down, um, whereas sportsbooks, that's their VIG. Um the fees are gonna go down, and the dyne, you know, just being able to be in and out during the during the game with no restrictions, I I think it's obvious. I mean, it's obvious. It's just it's real. Um but uh but yeah, I think to your point, Sats, like the education is tough because it's just like a different way to view it. The percentages and probabilities versus you know what we find maybe the the traditional sports betting uh terminology and all that, we find it to be confusing, but I think it's what people are used to. So that's a shift because it doesn't match what what you know the original way you would look at like a betting slip would be. Um so that'll take some adjustment in education, and you know, maybe that's the risk, maybe people don't like that. Uh, but I think most people who are new actually think it's more intuitive.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think my generation will uh like or maybe not all of my generation, I think maybe definitely the next of sports better is the guys who are just turning 18, right? Maybe they're a few years younger than me. Um, I think all these guys will end up prediction market users, not sportsbook users. Because a lot of these guys are we talk about people you know trying to find something to do with all their day um and all this stuff. It's like a lot of these people turn to trading. Like we see this explosion in day trading, we're gonna see this explosion in sports bank and sports trading as well. Um, I think it just makes sense. It's a natural path right now, and I don't think people go down the path of uh sitting on DraftKings, but you know, we're prediction pilled.
SPEAKER_01We'll find out, we'll find out. Um, I just saw someone say that Elon is worth more than the market cap of Bitcoin. Um as of right now. So maybe he'll just buy all of Bitcoin and save our bags.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, SpaceX does hold uh I saw like 1.8 billion in in Bitcoin on the balance sheet. So we'll see.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, gonna be crazy. Maybe they'll start buying Bitcoin on Mars. On the last thing, I saw, I think I linked this before the show started, but Cursor got acquired by SpaceX. Oh yeah, that's big. That's a big one. That's a big one. Um that is, and because they were they were falling behind in this AI game. They were falling behind, especially in the coding side. Grok is great at image generation, but anything but that, code generation is completely sucks ass. There's no other way to put it. Um cursor is good. Cursor is good, not not anywhere near Codex or uh Fable, though, but it's a good start, it's a good base for them to build on. Um, and I think it's probably worth me getting a cursor subscription.
SPEAKER_04Never thought I would say that one, but it's one of those things that makes you think, okay, what really is the ceiling to SpaceX? Because they are clearly targeting themselves to be the everything company. Uh it's exposure to Elon Musk at the end of the day. Yeah. And uh the guy's pretty good.
SPEAKER_02Man, it's another liquidity generation event for all the cursive guys as well. Um they just hit a fucking lick. You know? They hit a lick. They've only I think they when did they uh how long they've been around? Three years?
SPEAKER_00I think so.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Yeah, I think I think I think they got they came around in like 2023. Um, so fucking hell, fair enough.
unknownFucking hell.
SPEAKER_01Um all right, well, prediction SpaceX price on Friday for our next trip. Oh man, I hate this.
SPEAKER_02250?
SPEAKER_01I hate to say it.
SPEAKER_02250 disposal.
SPEAKER_04Uh yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna say 240, 230, somewhere around here, a little bit up. I'm gonna say 10. This is just like someone had to take the the crazy bull take.
SPEAKER_01310.
SPEAKER_04Give us a 400 would 400.
SPEAKER_02Get gamma squeeze to 400 when options go live. I feel like this is gonna be a tron situation where we all just watch it grind up and we don't buy. That's alright. We'll be okay. I don't think I can I don't think I can take it.
SPEAKER_01I don't think I can log into twitter.com and watch people bullpost hype and space X at the same time, though. Like the same thing.
SPEAKER_04How about the same thing? Hyper Liquid come Friday.
SPEAKER_01I mean hyper liquid from Friday. What's it at now? 73. I don't think it's gonna be down, I think it's gonna be low 60s.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Oh, low 60s. Yeah, I think I 66.
SPEAKER_04Wow, okay.
SPEAKER_02I saw Razmir literally dunking on people saying if you don't own hyperliquid right now, you must be stupid. That's literally what he's saying, like getting like 2k likes a tweet on that on that comment right there. So I'm gonna start doing that.
SPEAKER_01Just out of my start talking out of my ass, you know. That's gonna be my new strategy, just to like say preposterous things um and just get page used. Can you guys imagine me just doing just doing TikToks like dancing like get my big pages? Anything for the anything for the like anything for the pages, no one can see me except for Stats and Swiss can see me.
SPEAKER_04But uh animated Google just dancing.
SPEAKER_01I was just I was just dancing. I was doing I was doing a little dance for everybody. Um all right, we'll be back. We'll be back. Oh fuck. I yeah, we'll be back Friday uh 12 o'clock Eastern. Um download FOMO, go trade SpaceX there, SpaceX 310 by Friday, go do it on FOMO, and uh we'll see you then. Bye guys. Thanks everyone. Goodbye.