Bullish at the Top | EP 72

Covering:

• Surviving the Bear Market
• Gambling Wipes Everyone Out
• Bears are back
• Crypto Crashout Posts

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

Welcome! Risk on episode 72. I don't know about you guys, I was bullish at the top. Today's not great. Brought to you by FOMO. Go download the app. Go trade perps. Go use the web app. Go trade tokenized equities. Trade it all.

SPEAKER_04 0:18

Trade it all.

SPEAKER_02 0:20

Trade it all. Shout out to FOMO. Congrats to them. Closing a raise. Nearly half a bat, over half a billion. Which is fucking incredible. Insane. As an early angel and believer in FOMO myself, I'm very happy for them. And I'm excited to see what happens. Some serious people backing them again. It's awesome to see. It's good for the space. It's good for the space.

SPEAKER_01 0:53

We need this, in my opinion. In the deep crypto bear market. They've spawned in with 75.

SPEAKER_03 0:59

Wood made a great investment, great angel investment here. Unfortunately, yesterday he also got bullish at the top. And I woke up this morning, and what happened? Good morning, Vietnam! Yeah, we're gonna be able to do that. I wasn't uh Wood Permatoped the market, it appears, with his bullishness. But he's gonna hedge, and now he's gonna make fun of uh bulls also on the timeline. So fear not.

SPEAKER_02 1:28

I tweeted yesterday that I was bullish until the next red candle.

SPEAKER_01 1:33

It's a fair and valid. So you're officially not bullish now.

SPEAKER_02 1:36

So I'm a bear. I'm a bear until the next green candle. It's very simple. I just go minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day, bull one second, bear the next. I'm flute.

SPEAKER_03 1:47

Um, I also want to talk about one other thing really quick because I noticed this during the intro. I don't know how long it's been this way, or like have I just missed this? But what is up with Sat's new profile picture here?

SPEAKER_01 1:59

Yeah, you're not feeling that.

SPEAKER_03 2:01

No, no, can we pull that up? What is it?

SPEAKER_01 2:03

Who are you? Who is this is um so this is an artist what is local to to my hometown in the UK. Um, and I bought a few art pieces off her, don't ask. Um they were they were reasonably expensive. Um and this was one of them. This was one of them. They're gonna go up in my type shit. They're gonna go up in my apartment. I'm gonna have I've I've I'm gonna have four of them and they're gonna be sick. Um, Wood's a big art guy. Surely you could appreciate this one.

SPEAKER_03 2:35

It kind of reminds me of uh Woods Woods artist friend who uh tried to load Bitcoin in like 2023. What was that guy's name?

SPEAKER_02 2:44

Uh uh his name is Don't Fret, and he is now dead. So we don't want to speak Bill of the Dead here. He died. Yeah, artist like the character.

SPEAKER_03 2:55

The artist. Oh my god. Okay, I feel bad. I feel bad. Yeah, terrible.

SPEAKER_02 3:01

No, it's okay. It's okay. He had uh he he he was sick for some time. Um but uh yeah, it does a little bit. Um well sad, so Sad's is an art guy now. Podcast guy.

SPEAKER_01 3:13

Yeah, bear market is what you turn to the state of crypto.

SPEAKER_03 3:17

We're we're card collectors now, real world assets, art collectors now. Um pretty much the coins.

SPEAKER_01 3:25

Yeah, I'm honestly up on this investment um compared to the coins, so you know.

SPEAKER_02 3:31

Um, I was also curious about this picture, Sadh, but more so I miss our video intro with the song.

SPEAKER_03 3:40

Oh man, it was so good. We loved that one, so good. I really loved it.

SPEAKER_02 3:44

I loved it so much.

SPEAKER_03 3:46

Um I think we decided to like, hey, we need to be a little more professional. We can't have the just we had a lot of can't use the R word. Yeah, we could we could probably make like a like a an adapted version of that, I think. I think we could pivot back.

SPEAKER_02 4:05

I saw Chamath use the R word say say that, and then I saw Trump always saying it, and I always tell my wife, I'm like, the president says it, like, why can't I? Yeah, she doesn't agree with me.

SPEAKER_03 4:15

It's just that our video used the R word like like probably 50 times unless you times, yeah. It was very uh very much a central focus.

unknown 4:25

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 4:25

Did you see the uh the the Chamath video of him wearing the Laura Piana hoodie talking about uh how if you wear designer stuff, you got you just suck, you just the worst guy ever. It's got a $2,500 hoodie on. What a legend.

SPEAKER_02 4:39

Do you think Chamath's definition of luxury is just different than ours? So he doesn't even consider to be luxurious. He's like, this isn't even nice. What are you talking about? Like, do you think he would say that to you with with like a straight face?

SPEAKER_01 4:51

Yeah, yeah, 100%. And he would own it. Like oh, this hoodie's not bro, it's not 5k, it's two and a half, but it's not five, so I'm not flexing on no one.

SPEAKER_03 5:00

Uh he was saying you shouldn't you shouldn't buy designer clothes.

SPEAKER_01 5:05

No, he was saying if you buy designer clothes, you you're like you're basic you basically suck. You just like you're you you you fall into consumerism, you're like literally just the worst guy ever. Um, but he had a $2,500 Laura Piana hoodie.

SPEAKER_03 5:18

I want to I kind of want to fact check Max or Sats on. I'm pulling it up right now.

SPEAKER_02 5:22

Hold on, here it is. I just sent it in the channel.

SPEAKER_03 5:23

Oh, yeah, wait, yeah, Henry, let's get it.

SPEAKER_02 5:25

I just sent it in the chat.

SPEAKER_03 5:27

Yeah, let's let's roll the tape.

unknown 5:28

Let's roll it.

SPEAKER_01 5:29

It's honestly worse than I'm saying. That's the best. It's worse than I'm saying.

SPEAKER_00 5:36

Hey, if you're gonna possessions are bullshit, they're worthless, they're a sign of insecurity, and they're a sign of a rampant ego, and they're a sign of an unsettled mind. And that's okay if you're gonna be a mid, but that's okay if you're gonna be a goat. Unacceptable. Possessions are bullshit.

SPEAKER_03 5:54

No, and then people flag that it they confirm that it's a lower piano hoodie.

SPEAKER_01 5:58

It's a lower piano. That is a lord piano hoodie. That is a lower piano hoodie. Possessions of BS.

SPEAKER_03 6:05

Actually, he's worse than you said. Like he's more aggressive about it.

SPEAKER_02 6:09

If you're gonna be a goat, you can't do that. I mean, what do you I mean, I don't even think I own a single article of clothing worth $2,500. Do you guys?

SPEAKER_03 6:19

Worth $2,500? Worth $2,000?

SPEAKER_02 6:22

I don't own a pair of suit or maybe a suit? I think my most expensive suit is half that price that I got from suit supply when I was like in my late 20s to go to wedding. It still fits? Alright, I'm gonna tell a really funny story, actually. Still fits. Not crypto-related at all. Because we're turning Riscon into a lifestyle podcast, I guess, then before we get into crypto. Um, so last two summers ago, I was wearing this suit and I went to a wedding. I had to drive, it was like an hour away. And the pants you know when you go to a wedding and you haven't worn a suit in a while and you pop it on and you're like, I hope this fits still. Um so I did that with the pants. The pants were very, really tight, and I couldn't like I couldn't sit down really comfortably with them at the like fear that they might rip. So like I like could barely sit. I drove there, it was like very touch and go. I was nervous they might rip. And on the way home, so so so so the wedding finishes, I make it. I'm on the way home, and I'm with my wife, and I'm like, you know what? I'm just gonna take my pants off and drive home because I don't want to fucking wear pants that are too tight the whole drive home. And it's like late. I get pulled over 15 minutes away from my house with no pants on, and my wife in the car next to me. The cop has his flashlight, he starts tossing it in the car, he's like flashing right on like my legs that are barren, and he just looks at me and he goes, So, do you often drive without pants on? And my wife is sitting next to me, my poor fucking wife is sitting next to me. Um and it just doesn't look good from her perspective.

SPEAKER_01 7:58

Disaster.

SPEAKER_02 8:00

He let me go, nothing happened. Um, but that was a low point in my life.

SPEAKER_01 8:05

That's a low one. That's a one to forget.

SPEAKER_02 8:08

Anyways, we can talk crypto now. Um, all right. So, Swizzle, you were saying I got bullish at the top. Um I kind of did, but mostly because like we keep seeing all these people fucking crashing out. Like, everyone's crashing out. Did you guys see that post by that XCT guy that went super viral? I did.

SPEAKER_03 8:34

And I can't, I did you guys know who that guy was before? I saw like a crazy engagement. I was like, and then he's got a bunch of followers. I didn't actually know him, but it was like it was one of the cla it's just a classic crash out post. Classic. Yeah, and I think it was real. Some people do it for engagement, I think that was very real.

SPEAKER_01 8:52

Yeah, I mean his username is probably worth more than his portfolio now. So, you know, he's in a plus. You know, so at least he's got that. He's got a real world asset, you know. He's got a username, he's got a username what he can let go, thankfully.

SPEAKER_02 9:09

So the meatest thing I've heard about this so far.

SPEAKER_01 9:13

Yeah, there's that yeah, that's there's a positive there. Although on his post, I mean, yes, yes, he's posting about this after the fact. Um, at least he's letting everyone know he's being honest. It would be good if everyone on CT done this, uh, in my opinion. I don't think it's a bad post. I think uh it's a bit of honest.

SPEAKER_03 9:33

I don't even think we're it's not like we're shitting on this guy. And no, what I want to point out is like I think I've seen 10 of these happen in the last year.

SPEAKER_02 9:40

Yeah, that's what I want to talk about.

SPEAKER_03 9:41

And that's not that's not an exaggeration. That's not hyperbole. I've legitimately seen 10 of these. Some people I know or we have known and been in chats with, and then others I don't, like this guy. But like this is we're seeing a lot of them. We're seeing a lot of them. Like, I don't know what it is about the this stage, the bear market, that just like forces honesty out of people. Is it like a rock bottom thing for them, not for the market, but for them?

SPEAKER_01 10:05

Like, I think I think it just wear it wears people down. It wear this price action wears people down. It's it was the same situation what happened last cycle. It's just like people like Seoul when it hit like uh when it was at like 78. People were like, surely this is the bottom, and it never is. And these people they they experiencing like an accelerated bear market for themselves because they're trading in the Solana trenches, you know? They're they're PvPing prosper and scented. These guys are gonna they're speed running the bear market for you. If you want the bear market fast, you go in the trenches, and then you can you can hit a minus 90% in seconds. Um and this is what this guy's experienced, unfortunately. This is what he's fell victim to. Um, I mean, would how long ago did you say the trenches were dead? And or like this a year and a half ago, year ago. There you go. You know, there's there's been people still playing that whole time. Um let it go. It's like the Gucci bag. You know the Gucci bag was hanging on by strings? Yeah, that's meme points.

SPEAKER_03 11:09

I think that's the other thing is like like look, everyone has their various like motivations or reasons they need to like stay engaged. Like, you know, maybe some people weren't in a position to just walk away for six months and go on vacation or whatever, right? So it's like they're maybe this their livelihood or whatever. But I feel like people like stay engaged during these terrible conditions in different ways, and like the the ways that you do about it, like the inability to adapt or the way that you adapt is very consequential. Um because for some people, like the right move if they know themselves is to just walk away completely and like they have to like check out of the market and not what's going and not know what's going on. Um, and then there's others who like do stay involved and like their whole thing theory about how they like have this as a lifestyle is they want to know what's going on and they stay tapped into the market. But like you know, then the question becomes well, if you are gonna continue to trade the market in these conditions, what assets are you trading? Like what size are you trading? Are you sizing up or sizing down? Like if you've been if you've been like trying to make back make ground back up and you've been sizing up during this chop, during this downtrend, like like almost for sure, like that's gonna end in disaster, right? Um, but you know, like the three of us have had very different strategies. Like Sats, you've kind of like been like, hey, I'm just gonna like wait it out, uh, and kind of ignore it. Would you've been logged in pretty much every day, but you've been waiting it out, and like, you know, you'll every once in a while enter like one thing, and then you've got a very short time horizon. Me personally, like you guys know I've been trading the market actively, like, but I'm not touching size on any of these like crazy, you know, anything on-chain really. Um and the stuff that I have been doing, like I've been playing around with perps, but I sized down, I'm much more conservative. Nothing like I could get completely liquidated doing all that, and it wouldn't affect me, like in a in a major way, because I'm just doing it to like stay stimulated, you know. Um, but uh maybe like you know, maybe it's detrimental when someone like me is on here talking about the activity. If your interpretation is like, oh, I'm gonna do that and I'm gonna do it with my entire port, like that's a totally different mentality than other people who are successfully staying alive but trading the market.

SPEAKER_01 13:40

I think um people get people get used to the size they have in a bull market. And then yeah, when when your portfolio dwindles and you end up with say a quarter of what you had, the size you make on trades no longer feels like a win. Um increases you to size up, and then you end up gambling with your whole portfolio, and then things like this happened. Like for the for him to get like this, you have to have these like all-in moments where it just goes wrong. Um, and that's just what happens. That's just what and usually it happens, honestly. This was what happened with me like last cycle, or yeah, not last cycle before, definitely. It was like I would have these home run plays, I would win, and then on the way down, I would size back into the same plays, the usually the same big plays, and then um, yeah, it just eats away at your portfolio quicker than you can imagine. All of a sudden you're down 75% before you even realize. So it is easily done in crypto, and a lot of people dunking on this guy, but like probably 85% of CT is in the same spot. Um, he's definitely not wrong about this. A lot of the calls are doing this, a lot of the calls do just revolt to a gambling promotion.

SPEAKER_03 14:51

Um I I think that the thing is in a market like this, like you you can win, you can beat the market, like you can make good trades, but it requires being disciplined, being patient, and like and not um not getting greedy. You you can't get greedy in these types of conditions. In a bull market, you can get rewarded for being greedy, for sure. Yeah, um but the the thing is you can lose large amounts much quicker than you can gain large amounts. Like, you know, you can try to I I think if you want to beat the market trading this way, you gotta be locked in and you gotta like you know be stacking you know small wins um and and managing risk aggressively. Um but yeah, like I I think you know, I'm I'm sure like someone like this did did so well being greedy in in a bull market and then you know couldn't stop themselves from taking that same approach right now. Or like you said, it was a snowball, probably.

SPEAKER_01 15:49

This is probably someone's first cycle. This is probably his first cycle. I don't want to label him. Um, but it's probably his first cycle. He hasn't been through this before. It's just part of the game. He'll be back. He'll be back, he'll make a backpack cycle.

SPEAKER_03 16:02

But and and I think like our advice would be like, come back, don't quit. This is not the time to quit. Like you said it. The time to quit was 18 months ago if you wanted to. But now you're here, like it's not the time to quit anymore. Plus, now you have nothing to lose if you don't have anything left in your port.

SPEAKER_02 16:19

Yeah, now it's all that's not the time to quit because crypto is, I would argue, the only place in the world you can turn near near zero dollars into eight figures in less than a year with just some hard work and a little bit of luck. There's nowhere else you can do it. Can't go found a company and sell it for eight figures in under a year. I mean, maybe. Um probably now you can definitely now you could, but you need to like have like technical abilities or whatever. Like crypto is wonderful because it is such an even playing field, and if you are willing to put the fight, if you're willing to put the time into it, um I truly believe if you're willing to put the time into it, and I also am a strong believer in you create your own luck, that like you can come in here and you can make something from nothing, and you can do it relatively quickly in the right conditions. And for that reason, like you know, that that's the reason everyone joins crypto is to get rich, ideally, right? To make enough money to not have to work or whatever it is. And so this guy is sitting here, you know, I'm seeing tons of people. I'm not saying everyone's quitting, I think most people are are probably posting these things because they want to feel like community around this, they want to feel like they're not alone. Um, they're not they they want to have other people who have done this reach out to them and say, hey man, here's what I did, here's what happened, I lost it all. Um, and that's why we're seeing it when one person does it and it snowballs because people don't want to feel alone. But quitting is crazy, especially when you've shown you can make money. Like this guy's saying he's made a few million bucks before. Like, how can you make a few million dollars and be like, nah, I'm gonna never want to do that again.

SPEAKER_03 17:51

Like, this guy said, What do you lose? He lost 500k? How much did he lose?

SPEAKER_02 17:56

He lost a few million okay.

SPEAKER_03 17:58

Millions of dollars. So, like, what I would say is like hit whatever you have that you can afford to put in, if it's a thousand bucks, two thousand bucks, whatever, put that in, like, lock in, lock the fuck in, and like be patient, like grind, find your opportunity, don't put more capital in there, like try to find other ways to support your lifestyle in the interim. But I mean, I think we've all been there. Like, we've all we've all done this before. Like, you can take a small amount and you can run it up to a to a larger amount and then learn from your lesson and and don't do the same thing you did when you get back there. We know all three of us have actually done that exact situation, yeah, to in actually probably to extremes of that. And we know many other people who have who have done that, who've run small amounts up to crazy amounts, lost all of it, run it back up again, lost some of it, run it back, and then got better at risk management, and they're in a good spot now. So um yeah, I mean, I just think yeah, I think the there's maybe he's looking for an emotional reaction for support, that's fine, but like you know, I don't think quitting is the solution for anyone else that's in this situation. It's not as bad as it seems. Um, it's just money. Uh the game is gonna continue on, and uh right now you're trying to play it at the worst of its conditions, but uh it's going to get better.

SPEAKER_02 19:26

It's going to get better, and like Sats, you you said this so funny, I think a while like I I think it was like when Bitcoin went from like a hundred down to like eighty or something. It might have been right after 1010. You were I think I asked you the question, like, what do you recommend to people who got wiped out on 1010 and you just said go get a fucking job?

SPEAKER_01 19:45

Yeah. Yeah. It would have been up right now. It would have been up.

SPEAKER_02 19:52

Would have been up.

SPEAKER_03 19:54

And you actually speak from experience. Like that wasn't a joke, right?

SPEAKER_01 19:57

You know, yeah, yeah, yeah. I I wiped out and I didn't fucking stick around. I wasn't gonna start trading with sub a thousand dollars, just go went and got a job and came back and uh and and and tried to make it back. But it that was what fucking nearly eight months ago now. Um someone could have got a job and potentially made a decent amount of money to to come back with and not be scrapping around in the trenches fighting scented, you know? There's just better uses of your time where you'll be way more happy. Like people put this whole fucking like like massive thing around having a job. Like, bro, having a job is more happy than doing what this guy done.

SPEAKER_02 20:34

Yeah, like yeah, I I saw someone tweet yesterday about how they're bored with the crypto lifestyle of being like unemployed and just trying to make it um via crypto and they want to start working again.

SPEAKER_01 20:48

I think that's crazy. I I do think that's crazy because there is nothing better than a bull market um unemployed crypto session. But in the bear market, you've got to find some shit to do.

SPEAKER_03 20:59

Like I don't know, it doesn't matter if it's a job or it's something else. You have to have shit to do, you have to have a busy lifestyle because if you spend too long and your only goal or objective or thing that you're trying to do during the day is trade, you are going to overtrade and you're going to have death by a thousand cuts. Like you will lose uh you will lose a sense of clarity. Uh actually the the worst I ever traded was like I was when I was in between things and I had too much time on my hands and hadn't figured out other other things that were going on in my life. I had too much time to look at all that stuff. I had too much time to come up with a thesis, whatever. Just over trade. Um there's there's definitely value to having other stuff going on where you can look at this stuff enough where you can know what's going on, you can, you know, make decisions about what you do, and then you're not just staring at the chart after you make a trade.

SPEAKER_01 22:00

Yeah. I think I think it's just a lot of people forget what the bull market's like, and then they're like, oh, I have to make money. You know, I have to make money to survive. And as soon as you start relying on crypto for an income, it's simply over. It's simply over. There's no coming back from that. And your portfolio is going to zero.

SPEAKER_02 22:18

Yeah. So I I I so I was seeing all these posts. I saw this guy, I saw Alfie, I saw some other people post about the colour.

SPEAKER_01 22:25

Alfie crashed out.

SPEAKER_02 22:27

Alfie gambled it to zero. Alfie is one of like the goats of last cycle.

unknown 22:33

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 22:33

As far as meme coin trading goes. Between Popcat and Flog, like absolute meme coin legend.

SPEAKER_03 22:39

Incredible, honestly, incredible narrative trader. Good technique, good TA trader on the type of stuff. Like he crushed it, man.

SPEAKER_02 22:47

He crushed it. He crashed out. And I hope he makes it back.

SPEAKER_01 22:53

Truly. Oh, I just saw in his in his name, the slot enjoyer. Or the slot whisperer. He lost it all gambling. That's a bad way to lose it, man.

SPEAKER_02 23:04

Yeah, so like that's like the theme, right? That's how Chrome lost it all, too. It's gambling. Yeah. But like the way people lose it.

SPEAKER_03 23:11

We're talking online gambling, too. Online gambling. We don't get that. Like heat or rain better. It's like steak and stuff like that. I don't like it.

SPEAKER_01 23:18

Maybe I'm a moron, but like I there is zero edge. Yeah. I like I like playing things where I have some sort of edge, you know? Like I can have some sort of presumed edge, like in poker, or you have something in sports bang, or you have but slots is just straight chance, and your your chances are against you at all times.

unknown 23:41

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 23:41

It's not literally against you. I mean, it's not even funny to know the thing is rigged against you. It's programmatically designed for you to lose more than you win. And it it I understand maybe people get caught because it does these. It probably I've literally never even done one, but it probably does it where it's like it'll give you some dopamine hit that you win and then it'll make you lose five times, whatever. But I just don't get like what is the thought process about around why that seems like a good idea to do. I've done it, it's more fun than it to do, right?

SPEAKER_01 24:11

Yeah, I've done it with smaller amounts, yeah. Like ones where you literally you're gonna leave the casino, you you really don't care that you you lost it. It was it was gone when as soon as you deposit it there. Yeah, and don't get me wrong, it is fun, but it's not that fun. It's not that fun losing money. No, it's not that fun losing money. It's still I like you say, Oh, I'm gonna deposit and don't care. You still just evaporated money into nothing and left with fuck all like that's never a good time. It's never ever a good time. However, if I lose it by my own chance and I actually had a chance, you know, I had a chance, and it's somewhat of a skill-related issue, I'll accept the loss. Tough shit. But on slots, man, that's just uh it's an easy, it's a I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 24:54

I don't even like playing like blackjack or roulette or anything. I find it boring. No, you just sit there and then you just like the uh like whatever happens, happens. You don't think about it, it's just like it's luck, it's chance. Um for me, that's not entertaining.

SPEAKER_01 25:11

I'm good at losing money on poker. I'm good at that.

SPEAKER_02 25:14

I feel like the way you see people lose it all, leverage, gambling, and I guess now meme coin trenches are the three common threats. So, like, if you're listening and you're doing those three things right now, maybe just like don't.

SPEAKER_01 25:29

I mean, the meme coin trenches is the same thing, but like it's a slot machine, but people have this presumed edge where they think they have.

SPEAKER_03 25:37

Yeah, there's a which is what makes it like an enticing new.

SPEAKER_02 25:41

But you can have an edge in it if you put the time into it and learn and actually develop an edge. You can build an edge in on-chain. It's possible today. Yeah, it's hard for it.

SPEAKER_03 25:50

People underestimate how hard it is to have an edge and to sustain it's really, really funny.

SPEAKER_02 25:55

To sustain the edge is fucking hard because it always levels users are gonna actually have that edge.

SPEAKER_03 26:01

A lot more people think they have it. And this is coming from you know, people we we probably we don't anymore, but we used to have the edge. Yeah, you know, we can speak from experience with that. Yeah, so uh speaking of that, not anymore, it's way harder.

SPEAKER_02 26:15

Speaking of that, we've the three of us have been called top signals lately. That's that's fair.

SPEAKER_03 26:21

I don't even know. I didn't know people talking about this. Who talks about it?

SPEAKER_01 26:25

Uh do it. I I haven't I haven't bought anything though. I like I haven't bought anything. I didn't I didn't buy into this Solana Giga ball posting session. I don't know. I just I still trade off uh everyone calls me the EMA. Like remember last cycle, everyone in ECB used to mock me for whipping out the e the EMAs. I still use them. I still use them on on the chart like a Bible. And it just still didn't still didn't look appetizing to me. Still was sitting below the EMA, like fighting against it. And I don't know, man. Um I I I was speaking to a friend about this yesterday, and it was like I still wouldn't be happy unless I like I'd only be a willing buyer of Solana in the 50s, and maybe people hate to hear that.

SPEAKER_02 27:15

You would not be a 50s buyer of Solana.

SPEAKER_01 27:17

No, I'd be a 50s buyer. Okay, I'd be a 50s buyer. Yeah, I'd be a 50s buyer, and until then I'm not really that interested unless we see like this crazy pump above 80 to 85. Um, then I might play. Then I might play worth a punt just in case we break out and hold that level. But until then, I mean, gonna do exactly what I've been doing for the past fucking god knows how long. Just staring at Charles being bored, bare posting, being bored and practicing with anthropic, yeah, and clawed, yeah, yeah, and favor. And then losing money, losing money playing poker. Just usually when you don't lose it in the markets, you just find other ways to lose it fast as well.

SPEAKER_03 27:56

So are you back to playing poker sets?

SPEAKER_01 27:58

I am, I am actually loving. Where are you playing? I've been playing with a bunch of my IRL friends. We all get on the same table and we play, and like it's just so fun playing with your friends, but that is also just so so easy to to vaporize uh a lot of money. Um, we should do a risk and unsponsored online poker game. That would be fun. That would be really fun. I one of my friends turned up with a thousand dollars. He was really confident. Um, he was really, really confident. He was like, Oh my god, I'm actually a good poker player. Like giving it that. I think he honestly lasted three minutes and it was zero. He is he was going all in hands, which were outrageous.

SPEAKER_03 28:39

Um who comes to the table and says, Hey guys, I'm actually a really good poker player, that's probably a tell that uh little soft.

SPEAKER_02 28:48

Um yeah, but we should consider that. We'll talk about that after the stream because I think that would be fun to do something like bi-weekly or whatever, and wouldn't um would be easy and fun to do for us in the community. Um, but I guess so. Sounds you're waiting for Solana in the 50s to get bullish or just in general lower prices. Uh um asked me, uh Urbendez, he commented on a post of mine yesterday and said, like, what would it take for you to re-enter? Because back to Swizzle saying in the beginning of the episode, I was bullish. I was tweeting not bullish things yesterday. Um, I am not a bull. I wanted to be clear. Um, and he asked me what it would take for me to become bullish. And I don't really have anything that complicated. I don't have like EMAs, I don't have anything. It's just I want to see prices where I look at them and I say, Holy shit, that's cheap. That's it. Then I'll start buying coins. But like until I like wake up and I'm like, oh my god, this is inexpensive, Solana or Bitcoin, or whatever. Like, I just we haven't had that yet. Um, I agree. I will just patiently fucking be a boring top signal and wait until happens.

SPEAKER_01 29:57

This is how you win bear markets, like how patience people like it's like when they're draining people drain their ports between now and the bottom, and it's like you just have you if you just sit on mountains of cash, which yes, I mean I didn't have it in fucking stocks, yeah. Massive L. Don't get me wrong, can clown me all you want for that. Didn't have it in stocks. I just sat in cash, got fucked by inflation, but at least I didn't get fucked by crypto.

SPEAKER_02 30:26

Yeah. Yeah. So that's that's it for me. Swizzle, you're you are kind of cautiously bullish, it seems like, right now. And is this like uh you're bullish for the next two weeks sort of thing, or you're like cautiously like, you know what? Like there's things starting to shape up because people have been out there shelling Solana, people have been accusing those people of sh who are shelling Solana of being paid shells, which we can talk about as well. Um, but what is making you be possibly like there's a vibe shift going on right now in Solana specifically?

SPEAKER_03 31:01

I'm well let's get to the salon. Like, I do I will I think there's a longer conversation about the Solana stuff, the salon shilling. Uh we'll get there in a few minutes, but just to answer your question directly, like I I think we're pretty close. I think we're pretty close to bottom. We got through the SpaceX IPO. There's more of that coming, right? So there's a couple more liquidity events. I don't know if we know when those are happening, but like um I think there's a lot of like like sentiment bottoming. I think there's a lot of like exhausted selling. But my guess would be like, you know, we're we're in the summer, we're in we're in June, end of June right now, and the summer is historically bad. You know, we're kind of like honestly, we've been playing out pretty much exactly how the four-year cycle tends to go. I'm not really a four-year cycle guy, but I you have to acknowledge it's been pretty much playing out to a T. And I think there's some psychological like uh confluence with that where people start to trade it according to that, the more like a self-fulfilling prophecy. But ultimately, I just think like we've seen so much of this. I think this chop in this range, we're gonna see people flip-flopping back and forth. I think this chop in like where 58k or 60k or whatever holds between there and I don't know, somewhere around 70. I think it can happen a little longer than people think um for Bitcoin. I feel like we're one more capitulation event, capitulation wick away from to me where a true bottom forms. Um and I think, you know, like I'm gonna stay active and kind of like trade around these areas, like again with conservative size. I think the 60k area is gonna hold, but where I'd be really interested in buying is if it doesn't, and there's one more capitulation event, and we go, I don't know where it goes to 55k, lower, whatever. I think that'll be pretty quick. Um, and I whenever that happens, when we see a cascade there, like I'm definitely buying that that next event when it happens. Um and I don't really care if it goes lower after that. I just feel like that's good value. It's good value, and I'm probably buying I'm not buying Bitcoin, I'm probably buying the altcoins I like, and then I'm just gonna sit and wait from there. Um but like other other than my height position that I already have and I just don't want to fuck around with, and I I I kind of, you know, if I get another chance to sell in the 70s and Bitcoin looks weak, maybe I'll I'll get out of it, but otherwise I'm just gonna pretend like it doesn't exist and ignore it. I I think the next like level down is pretty good value to buy. And and I I'm I'm ready for that. Uh if that sometimes around October, that's that's great because it would be psychological confluence.

SPEAKER_02 34:05

But it sounds like all three of us are waiting for whatever the that's where we be able to do.

SPEAKER_03 34:12

Well, that's that's why I'm not fully like like you guys have don't have exposure. I I have some exposure. I'm not fully out because I'm not convinced it happens. I think there's a chance that we hold at 60. Yeah, it seems like I don't want to be fully sidelined, but I but I would be excited to allocate the remainder of my like crypto allocation portfolio. I'd be excited to deploy the rest if we go lower from there.

SPEAKER_01 34:37

Yeah. I yeah, now we're now we're now we're all set in air and we're going, yeah, we would be happy with the 50s. Probably everyone is who didn't.

SPEAKER_03 34:47

I think everyone is. I think you have interested buyers again.

SPEAKER_01 34:51

Like, how is everyone just got no bread and then everyone's interested in the 50s, but everyone already wiped out?

SPEAKER_03 34:57

That's I think there's money. I think there's money. There's money. Sats.

SPEAKER_02 35:01

If you see $50 Solana, are you shoving size into it or are you just a question?

SPEAKER_01 35:06

I'll shove size into it because I know at one point, you know, the chances of of me not being in profit on a on a longer term, I feel like it's pretty low. Like, you know, I feel like I can at least squeeze a 2x at 50 on size as well. Like we're gonna see a hundred dollar solana again, one way or another, in the in the next two years, surely, you know. And if not, that's a bet I'm I'm willing to take and lose. But I yeah, I would say easy size play at $50. Not so much at 70. It doesn't really interest me because like what I'm holding out for a like 40% move back to back to 90.

SPEAKER_03 35:48

Like, I have to admit, I'm I I'm not buying. I've been holding myself off and being disciplined, not buying. But like I find Solana attractive right now. And I'm I'm I'm not allowing myself to buy it, but but I actually find it attractive right now. I just think the risk reward, the fact that there could be another leg lower makes me say you can't buy here. But I do find it attractive. I think there's I think there's a pretty good uh setup for it to to make a push now. Uh it's just the problem is you just can't predict Bitcoin here.

SPEAKER_02 36:25

Yeah. I think if you're buying now, you're buying for like a short-term move, I think, by waiting. Like I view buying $50 as like a as like a one year plus hold. If you buy with that, you have to commit to holding Solana for a long time and seeing where that takes you.

SPEAKER_03 36:42

But whereas if you're buying now is that it's like we're someone sizing it there, right? Sizing it. Yeah, you you are going to have a chance to sell that for a two to three X. For sure.

SPEAKER_02 36:52

Yes, for sure. I think so. I don't think at 70 bucks you have that same, like, I'm not willing to size Solana here at 70 bucks. I'm willing to trade it on low leverage or nibble at it here, but I'm not willing to shove here. Yeah, 50 so attractive. I will shove in the mid-50s.

SPEAKER_01 37:10

Yeah, 50 so attractive, like, yeah, 2x at 100 and near 3x at 150. Like, that is uh I can't turn that down. I simply can't turn that down. Because one I remember when 150 Solana, everyone was like, oh my god, Solana's ruined.

SPEAKER_03 37:26

Like Solana's chalked, but like well, and I think that's where this now the transition to this part of the conversation I think is good because now the question is like, okay, it gets there. Should you buy Solana? Or or is it like should you buy something else? And that's where I think we want to talk about like all the narrative that's been around Solana. People calling it a you know, coordinated paid shills or whatever, or is it real? And I think now we have to answer that question. Is what people is like what people are identifying right now, is that fair? Is that real? Or should it be should we just be focused on other assets? Um, I want to hear what you guys think, but like for a number of reasons, I think what some of these people are talking about right now is very legitimate. Like very legitimate for Solana, and that's why it's attractive to me now, even though I'm not buying. But I I want to know what you guys think on the all the kind of polarizing dialogue about Seoul right now.

SPEAKER_01 38:21

I think I think it's definitely not paid shills to be clear. I think what it is is Ansom flipped bullish, and everyone loves to follow him because they know if they're now wrong, they're not gonna get the shit. Ansom's gonna get the shit, so it's a safe thing. Like CT literally moves in fucking crowds. Um one guy shills it, and everyone now thinks it's amazing. Um, so I think it was just a trickle-down effect um of everyone felt safe to shill it now. It was safe to get bullish uh sold because Ansom was. Um, unfortunately, that's not how the market works. I wish it was. I wish Ansom was just a decider of what went up, and we can just long when he says to get to long and short when he says to short, but that is not how it works.

SPEAKER_03 39:07

Um, as in for the I think it I think it would be a mistake to say if Solana goes down here, another leg down, wouldn't it be a mistake though to just say, oh well, he was wrong and all these people were bullshit?

SPEAKER_01 39:21

Yeah, I think, yeah, it definitely because the narrative he's actually laying out makes sense, you know, it makes sense, but it's still a uh an argument of risk reward at this price, like and and and I still I was you know, I he nearly had me. He nearly fucking had me. I was looking at the Solana chart and I was going, you know what? Like it doesn't look too bad. I could enter with a little bit of size. Yes, it doesn't sit above my EMAs, but I could take a chance, you know, Ansom's bullish. You know, he's he's done well this cycle, maybe worth a punt. Didn't end up doing it. Took a look at stocks and was like, hmm, never mind. Um but that's the thing, it's still the thing, you know, it's stocks are still at literal all-time highs and they sneeze and crypto falls off a cliff. The narrative can be literally like Solana has found gold on the moon and they're mining it. But it's like if stocks nuke, then no one cares. Yeah, price down.

SPEAKER_03 40:16

Yeah, what do you think, Wood?

SPEAKER_02 40:18

I think that it makes what else are we gonna buy? There's Solana, there's hyperliquid, and there's Bitcoin, and I am generally like disinterested in anything else. Um like I'm not gonna willing to make I'm not willing to make bets on any other on, I'm not willing to make an altcoin bet at this stage of the market, except on if we're gonna call hype and Solana altcoins, let's call them that. Um, but I'm not gonna sit here and tell you I'm gonna buy Meteora Backpack or um Zec even for that matter. Um, I've just we've seen how this plays out, guys. Like go look at any altcoin chart on a long enough time horizon, especially in like bear market territory, and then go fast forward into the bull market into the bull market of uh go fast forward into the following bull market and check out what that alt from the previous cycle did. And they all fucking trend to zero and they all get replaced by new coins and new narratives. I'm a huge believer that new coins are good, old coins are bad. Until we are in and and you make money in easy mode in bull markets on new coins. You do not make money by longing the bottom of old altcoins in uncertain territory. And I think it's as simple as that. Like, even the people from last cycle who were early, they bought WIF, they bought Bonk, they bought Seoul early. Like those they made some money there, but the real fuck you money was made in AI season, or buying Popcat or buying Mishi or buying FOG or whatever. Like, that's where people really killed it. You didn't you didn't kill it by calling the meme coin super cycle early. Um that was a good place to start. And like I'm not here today if I didn't buy WIF early, but um that's not where I made the most of my money. I made my money following that. Um, and I think that will hold true going forward. And I think longing trying to call the bottom on anything other than those three assets really just doesn't make any sense. Like, if you want exposure, buy those and then wait until easy, until you think easy mode turns back on, and there is a narrative to buy. Um I mean, unless on-chain is dead, and we're gonna be trading on Zec shitters, like Sat says, but that's my deal. I don't know.

SPEAKER_03 42:40

I don't fully agree with that. Like, I I do, but I don't. Like as far as these the call them the betas to s to Seoul that I think are what's driving the narrative. I think there's two things to understand about them. I think you can make money on those. Um, I think in the uh if you time them correctly, they will outperform Solana. Um and I think you just have to recognize they are momentum trades. And that's the key distinction of like the asset, the concept, what is happening there can be really good. But recognize that it there's it's a time window, and you you have to understand that you have to time it. But I do think Meteora, Backpack, JT, you know, Jito, um, you know, you can go down the line. There's a few more we could we could talk about. Uh like though cards, like all the these different narratives that are aligning that we're saying, oh, there's these good businesses here. I think you can make money right now on those, potentially. You can also get burned badly and recognize the vol the additional volatility there. Um, but I don't think it's a bad idea to play into those, but they're a little bit more get in, get out. And even if the businesses are great, recognize there's gonna be a little bit of a difference where those cannot survive like the wrong market conditions. They have to hit their pocket of time. Um, but long, but like overall, I think you then also say, regardless if you're buying those tokens, those things that are happening on chain or like those businesses that are popping up on Solana, like the narrative is real, and I think they're providing something that provides legitimacy and value to Solana, where even if they just end those tokens end up being momentum trades and you have to get in and get out, what they're doing is providing like some fuel for a sus sustained success narrative for Solana as an ecosystem. And that to me, that's why the correct or like the like risk-adjusted uh decision is to belong soul, to buy soul, because you're not taking the risk of like being right about this one, but then wrong about that one, and and this one didn't last. It's like you're trying to choose specific assets. Soul is kind of like buying the ecosystem and saying, well, even if like backpack is just a flash in the pan and it goes away, like there's something else that's there, and this other thing worked. It's kind of like buying the index. And and I think obviously you have to believe that there's a path towards like them eventually one day monetizing all this, but like I wouldn't worry too much about like Soul's like revenue and and like metrics and all that stuff. If everything is happening on Solana and everything is concentrating towards Solana, like that's that's really interesting. That's really bullish.

SPEAKER_01 45:32

You know, you know what it actually makes me bullish now. We're talking about it. Their world series of poker thing is actually, I feel like it's a sign of things to come, and how a lot of things can probably do this, like and be like this, like the way we haven't even thought about. Um it can probably dominate a lot of these in real life things.

SPEAKER_03 45:54

Um well, that's what I said at the time. That's why I said I thought it was a bigger deal than people thought. And yeah, I like poker, I'm a poker player, but like that's not why I was saying it. I I think it was a like a foreshadowing of things to come, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_01 46:07

Yeah, I think I think it it potentially could be. Um, I I I do like Solana, but I feel like an interesting I just I I saw Wood mention it in the chat, the the ETH chart. And I mean, I I don't even know where this this goes, man. I couldn't even tell you. There's not even a price I would be interested in. And nah, there's nothing.

SPEAKER_03 46:30

I feel like can we put this on the monthly? What is this, the weekly right now?

SPEAKER_01 46:34

Yeah, this is yeah, this is the same thing.

SPEAKER_02 46:35

Before we talk ETH, and this kind of relates into it. The one thing to your point, Swizzle, you were saying like all these betas to Solana and like they're good businesses and so on. Like, we said that about Ave, about Wi Fi, about Maple Finance three years ago. And their charts had done a trend line to fucking zero.

SPEAKER_03 46:53

And that's kind of my point. Who said that about those things?

SPEAKER_02 46:56

Everybody in the ETH ecosystem on CT who made money in DeFi, and in which was like the meme, which was like the Ponzi of last cycle. On-chain Ponzi of last cycle, there was DeFi and NFTs. DeFi, I I didn't trade NFTs, I just did DeFi.

unknown 47:11

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 47:12

But everyone who is bullish DeFi was bullish on these things, and these charts have just gone to zero over time. And my point, and what I think is like buy Solana, buy Bitcoin, buy hyperliquid, but buying these betas, unless you're like trying to trade them and have an edge in trading, it's not like as like a buying a bottom on these for like holding it to next cycle is silly.

SPEAKER_03 47:37

Yeah, yeah. Sorry, I understand what you're saying. Yeah, I I agree with that, and that's why I call them a momentum trade. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_02 47:42

So I think we're saying the same thing, yeah, just on different time frames. All right, back to ETH. Um, yeah, I mean Tom Lee's down 10 billion.

SPEAKER_03 47:53

You can just leave it on the seven day, that's fine.

SPEAKER_02 47:54

Uh Tom Lee's down to what 10 10 billion now. What would it take for you to turn bullish on ETH? Like, what am I Tom Lee blowing off? They just laid off 20% of their of their team at the ETH Foundation.

SPEAKER_03 48:10

Um that is kind of I think they're try at least they're trying to do something. It's the first time I've seen them try to do something.

SPEAKER_01 48:16

What did the ETH Foundation do? They sell ETH. Yeah, honestly, that's all they do. No, I I haven't like I feel like when you compare them to the Vibu Solana Foundation, the Solana Foundation do a lot of shit. You know, they're always doing something, they're always building some API key, some some tools for builders, they're they're sorting out the the the world's series of poker stuff. They're doing some what are these guys doing? No wonder they're getting laid off. I haven't seen anything from these guys in ages.

SPEAKER_02 48:47

Like, I don't know. I I genuinely can't think of a single reason to buy Ethereum. Do you guys remember? Uh there was a guy who wrote an article about like how East was going to be the cable lines of on-chain a uh agentic payments a while back.

SPEAKER_01 49:05

Yeah, yeah, I do remember that. I used to hate that term agenc payments. What the fuck? I'm so glad we're past that, guys.

SPEAKER_03 49:12

Yeah, we're not we're not past it. I trust me, where I live, it's all over the place. It's on buses. It's on buses, it's on billboards, it's everywhere.

SPEAKER_01 49:22

It's just like, what does that even mean? And who the fuck like I just couldn't think of a reason. When it was all going on, like especially in crypto and all these narratives, I was like, but but why? You know, why why is this agent gonna trade here? Why would someone set up an agent to trade here or or use these rails or or whatever? And why would they not just do it for a traditional bank? Because that's gonna be made. And then uh I don't know, the narrative seemed to have just faded, at least on CT. Um, maybe not in San Francisco. San Francisco is a different beast nowadays.

SPEAKER_03 49:54

You know, you know what bothers me about like the whole Ethereum thing, and like, and this is why I get frustrated I I don't know why I'm frustrated, I don't hold either assets, I shouldn't care. But I as a longtime soul bull, like why I what I one thing I can't stand is why people all say, oh well, soul is now the like the ET of this cycle. Um and they say, like, you know, it's going through the same problems or whatever, it's like it's just gonna have the same thing. It's good, you know. I'm like, go use Ethereum. Yeah, go use Solana. One works and one doesn't, you know? Like Ethereum is terrible. Yeah, it is absolute absolutely atrocious to use, and they have not improved it in eight years. Solana, you can say whatever you want about the tokenomics, you can say whatever you want about the price action's been bad. I think there's a lot of negatives, but like, man, the technology is really good and it gets better, and they build shit on top of it. Like, I'm not saying that you need to like Solana, but it is not compared, like the whole Ethereum thing just doesn't make sense to me.

SPEAKER_01 51:01

Just doesn't make sense. So Solana is definitely not. I I realized this the most the other day when I was trying to send an international wire, and it feels like the bank is like investigating my like future children um to get this across. And you just think back after using crypto for so long, where this shit takes five seconds and they don't care what country you're in, not even five seconds. And the bank, it literally took me I had to get on the phone, I have to get on the phone, I have to ring this person, I have to confirm this on the app, I have to confirm this security feature, um, just to get an international wire across. So it does make you realize, it does make you realize this shit, the shit is uh is good, but and that's what we all bet on.

SPEAKER_03 51:43

Those of us that bought Solana when it was you know on its deathbed at 12 bucks, like that's what we all that's what we all saw, and that hasn't really changed. Whereas like that whole the that's why the Ethereum to Solana shift happened, but like um it's weird. I I don't think that's changed, and yet people are so focused on this cyclical thing of like, okay, well now Sol is where ETH was, and now that's that. It's like yeah, it's not the same progression every cycle. This is still awesome technology.

SPEAKER_01 52:14

Yeah, I think so too. It's definitely the consumer, the consumer product of of Solana, wherever all the consumer apps will be built. It's just what consumer apps are going to be built, you know, apart from perps, you know, what consumer apps are coming. So yeah, that's where you need the ecosystem to be to do it, you know?

SPEAKER_03 52:31

Yeah, you need individuals and groups to to do that.

SPEAKER_02 52:35

Um speaking of retail participation, um, can you pull up the SpaceX chart? Um, we'll close on this. SpaceX, I believe anybody who bought post IPO is down now.

SPEAKER_01 52:49

I think you can pull it up here, Henry. Remember when we were we were calling 230s?

SPEAKER_02 52:56

I called for 310. I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna hold my hand up. My bad. My bad. I've bullish at the top. Um but uh yeah, it's just getting decimated. Um yeah, this is a tough watch. This is a tough one. Um our our uh our our producer has forgotten how to type and pulp charts, apparently. Um but we'll get it up there eventually, won't we? He's staring at me right now. Can't figure it out, doesn't know how.

SPEAKER_01 53:32

Yeah, but I'm I'm looking at this chart on my monitor, and it is uh I feel like it's worth a punt here. I'm not gonna lie.

SPEAKER_02 53:38

You're gonna punt it?

SPEAKER_01 53:40

Yeah, I think so. And just sell sell sell under i like if it holds under IPO price, I'll get out. There he is. Look at him. This is a crazy looking chart. I think this is the winch on it. Yeah. Um that's about right. It chopped for a few days. Yeah, yeah. It just doesn't show the accurate IPO price of 150. Oh, there we go. There we go.

SPEAKER_03 54:06

That's some crazy candles right there.

SPEAKER_02 54:09

There's there's the Mars candle. Yeah, that was the yeah, that was the E on the city.

SPEAKER_03 54:15

That was the first Monday, it it launched on Friday. That Monday was nuts.

SPEAKER_02 54:21

Yeah, it was it was the going to Mars candle, and now we're at the we might not be going to Mars point.

SPEAKER_01 54:27

We might we might not make it the space candle right now.

SPEAKER_02 54:30

Make it a space, we're gonna we're gonna blow up our next jet. Um, so you're punting here. I think I will punt at some point in the future.

SPEAKER_01 54:38

Wait, wait, but again, this may be a stupid ass question, yeah. But with these uh how SpaceX operates, with these rocket launches now, if it fails, are we gonna see the stock nuke? I don't know. If a rocket blows up, are we gonna see the are we gonna see price go down rapidly? Definitely.

SPEAKER_03 54:58

I mean, for sure. Why not?

SPEAKER_01 55:00

Yeah, damn. That's gonna be a crazy that's gonna be a new event.

SPEAKER_03 55:04

I'm sure they have that stuff modeled in, but everything is news driven.

SPEAKER_01 55:07

Um, that's gonna be a new new event.

SPEAKER_03 55:09

We haven't hit unlocks yet, by the way.

SPEAKER_02 55:11

Yeah, that happens soon. They're gonna pump into unlocks. It's an old tale as old as time.

SPEAKER_03 55:16

Unlocks are bullish, that's what they say.

SPEAKER_02 55:18

Unlocks are bullish, unlocks are bullish. Um, all right, cool. Well, um, let's wrap it up there. Um, we'll be back Friday, same time, 12 Eastern. Um go check out FOMO, trade SpaceX there with Sats. Sats is gonna go buy SpaceX. Uh-huh. Can we go to Moss? Go trade perps. Go trade meme coins and you know, speedrun zero during the bear market. Um do whatever you want to do. Um and we will be back Friday at noon. Hopefully, prices are better. Please, prices be better. I really don't want to convert Riscon to a lifestyle podcast, so prices go up, please. We're getting there. We're getting there. We're getting there. All right. We'll see you guys Friday.

SPEAKER_03 56:06

All right. Thanks, everyone.