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Risk On Podcast
Bearish at the Bottom | EP 73
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Covering:
- Is the Bitcoin Narrative Dead?
- Prediction Markets vs Crypto
- Solana Token Value Problem
- How to Fix Launchpads
And more!
RiskOn episode 73 brought to you by FOMO. Downloaded today. Use promo code RiskOn for 10% off trading fees. Trade perps, trade RWAs, tokenize equities, trade on their web app. Trade everywhere. Trade on FOMO.
SPEAKER_00Trade everything.
SPEAKER_01Trade everything everywhere on FOMO. Guys, we were bullish at the top on Tuesday. Now we're bearish at the bottom.
SPEAKER_00Classic.
SPEAKER_01As is tradition. So everybody and their mother is bearish, except for Ansom, who's like trying to put Solana on its back. He said he was going to CTO Solana, and I think he's doing it.
SPEAKER_00It's working. It's working right now. It's up 7%. Yeah, on just presumably just off Ansom's tweets. It's a successful CTO, but it looks a bit. Kind of crazy.
SPEAKER_01Imagine being able to move the market cap of it. How many billion to Solana? Like 70? 70?
SPEAKER_02Yeah. What do you think we used to use for the like the meme coin list, like the A tier, B tier? What was the top one? S tier? S tier. This is S stand for about it. We're CTO and majors.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_01Do you guys know what S stands for? No. I've never known this. No.
SPEAKER_02The whole thing is that the sense to me. Why is it an S? Why do we go C B A and then S? There's probably I'll look it up right. We never went C B A.
SPEAKER_00We went S A B C. I thought you were gonna have an answer though.
SPEAKER_02I meant I meant like C at the bottom, B, A, and then you get at the top, and somehow pivoted to S. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he is an S did it. S tier Cole. Remember when they done the uh I'm pivoting a straight off topic here already. Remember when they done the Solana Epstein list?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, weren't you on it?
SPEAKER_00No, Wood was on the I was on the Solana Epstein list? Yeah, well we were both on it. No way. Or was it just me? Did I?
SPEAKER_01No, I think I was on it. I I remember this vaguely. I'm I'm I'm now on Scooter's list of criminals and uh scammers. It's a good list to be on. That list?
SPEAKER_00That well, yeah, because that was the FOMO pre-seed, wasn't it? That was the FOMO.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_00That's a great list to be on.
SPEAKER_01I tweeted this yesterday, but thank God there's guys like Scooter on CT to take care of us. Really keeping us clean, holding us all accountable, making sure that we are all doing, we are all behaving well. Him and MCM. Uh MCM in my comment yesterday said uh what did he say? He said, uh, you're the least um you're you're the least annoying Boogle PFP. That was a nice compliment.
SPEAKER_02You know what? It's like being the tallest midget in the room.
SPEAKER_00That might be the first compliment that guy's ever given out. That's that's big.
SPEAKER_01It was really nice. And if you click in on that, you'll see my response then, right?
SPEAKER_02Wait, MCM is this. I had to correct him. I had to correct him. I think when we all got rugged by Trove.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. We were getting clowned by this guy.
SPEAKER_01That's a different guy. It's a different MCM. That's MLM back. MLM back is like a respectable hyperliquid guy.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he dunked on us all there. He dunked on us all. That was about it. He didn't dunk on me. I didn't get caught. I didn't get caught. No, I don't know how.
SPEAKER_01I'm gonna get caught in the crossfire. I didn't do anything.
SPEAKER_00I was I was clean. I I literally got caught in the crossfire. No tweets, nothing. Literally nothing.
SPEAKER_02I will say back when that back when that Solana Epstein list came out, I remember seeing you guys on there and I wasn't. And I felt like this is the equivalent of some rich, famous person being on the real Epstein list or not being on the real Epstein list and seeing their friends there, and like a sigh of relief, but then also like, wait, why why didn't I make the cut? Like, why didn't I also get to be on the list? It was a little bit uh shameful that I didn't make it. Um I was upset.
SPEAKER_00So I think I think me and Wood, me and Wood were on like the section of like been on the I've been on the plane a few times, you know. We visited once or twice. We weren't common visitors, thankfully.
SPEAKER_02Um you knew people that were regulars, but yeah, I think Anson was on the regular list, you know.
SPEAKER_00There was a few, there was a few uh all-timers. Um but yeah. There were honestly some surprisingly good days when that came out. That was that was when Solana was booming. Times were good. Um, it was all the all the best guys on CT made that list. Damn. What a time.
SPEAKER_01Times are good again, potentially. I mean, except for the fact that BTC lost 60k. Swizzle was bullish. At what price were you bullish? You were bullish at what 90, 80, 75? What are we talking months ago? We're talking bitcoin prices that you were bullish at. Now we're at 60. What what are we doing? Are we are we are we bottom tier? Bullish, yeah. If I was bullish then, I gotta be bullish now, man.
SPEAKER_00You gotta stick out, yeah. To be fair, you have to stick to it.
SPEAKER_02Well, you think I'm a quitter? You think I'm a quitter?
SPEAKER_01I don't think you're a quitter. And you know who's not a quitter is fucking Michael Saylor with down 14 billion. Stretch hit 72 this morning.
SPEAKER_00Impressive.
SPEAKER_01Bitcoin chart just made a lower low. Um, and people are out there calling bottoms on everything. Um, I tend to believe when you make a lower low and then you bounce up above it, like you're probably gonna go lower. But are you guys feeling what what are your guys' thoughts?
SPEAKER_00Did we did we make a lower low? We did, yes. We did, yeah, we did. We did. Um, you know what? I I can't say I'm bullish here. I can't say I'm bullish. Although if we were to pull a move back to six 64 tomorrow, I would be like, we're so fucking back on buying coins. Like I would probably change quite quickly, but current price action. I'm sticking to what I've been the past few months. I'm still bearish, it still only holds Zek, which is getting hammered at the moment. Um, but yeah, I I'm still not not feeling it right right now. I I would be what price would I be comfortable with Solana at? Like I would say if we clear like $80 Solana, it's time to start like paying attention again, maybe. Or that's just a like a higher high or a lower high and it's just over again. Um but I don't know, not keen right now. Not keen. You're not buying into Ansem's CTF.
SPEAKER_02I want to talk about this lower low thing. Um lower low on what time frame?
SPEAKER_01Oh, here we go.
SPEAKER_02In the last low. No, I'm genuinely asking. Did did we go? I think in the last low.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it did in the last like six months or whatever.
SPEAKER_02Because I see that we we're back, whatever the that like end of Q the Q4 2025 low. It was it was like 58. It was right at like 58k, right? Did we go lower?
SPEAKER_01Did we go we touched it if not went slightly lower? I think well. I feel like we tapped.
SPEAKER_02I feel like we tapped and bounced from the same spot. So I feel like we just don't want to.
SPEAKER_01I think it's the retest of the range. It's a retest retest. A retest of the range.
SPEAKER_00It's a swizzle retest.
SPEAKER_02I feel like if we break 50, maybe I'm dumb, I'm missing something. I feel like it's not that's not confirmed until we break below 58k.
SPEAKER_00Would you turn bearish then? Or would you you you abode?
SPEAKER_02Well, if that yeah, then it's it well, it depends what you mean. Like what do you mean by bearish at that point? Like we're going lower. If we lose 58k, very, very probable that we go lower. But right now, what I see is indecision, like we're still in range, we're still in chop until we lose 58k, which maybe uh we maybe we will tomorrow, maybe we will later today. I don't know.
SPEAKER_00But are you a buyer of coins right now then?
SPEAKER_02I have longs open, yes. Oh, oh I'm down on one of them, I'm up on I'm up pretty big on the other. Uh, so I'm about even on them.
SPEAKER_01What are you in?
SPEAKER_02Obviously, I don't care.
SPEAKER_00I don't hold Bitcoin, but um lighter looks so good.
SPEAKER_02Lighter. I'm in Zcash and I'm in lighter. I timed the Zcash one very poorly, so I ended up adding a little bit uh yesterday.
SPEAKER_00I am so interested in lighter right now. Why? Because I think I think they've just got shit cooking right now. I think they've just got shit cooking. Um, there's a lot of things I'm very skeptical on, so I'm not gonna say I'm on here and go, oh, like I think this is gonna happen. But there's a lot of things where like if a few partnerships land for them, it's gonna be fucking big. Um, but I'm speculating a lot here. But price seems to be reflective of said speculation. Lighter looks sexy. It looks really boring.
SPEAKER_02Are we able to zoom? Oh no, this is FOMO. That's the whole chart, Dave.
SPEAKER_01That's the lifetime of the chart. Yeah, that's a sexy chart.
SPEAKER_00Really good. And I was like, I said in the group chat uh in our group chat the other day, like I was so close to buying lighter before the nuke, and then I fudded myself out of it, but I should have just I should have just bit the bullet and bought. Um but this is the one chart I'm really like, I think a lot of people aren't paying attention right now. I think this is gonna slowly creep up into that basket where people go like, oh, what are the alts you're interested in? And people say hyperliquid, sonana, and lighter. I do think that will be consensus within the next few months, and people will be saying this. I think this is just just no one seems to be talking about this right now. Am I wrong? Do you guys see this?
SPEAKER_01They were talking about it a few months ago, and then when it was like sub a dollar on chopping, and I think everybody probably got chopped out. I got chopped out of it. I owned lighter.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I shook myself in and out. I would be in a fantastic position if I just had ignored it, but that's what I'm doing now. Uh it's one of the two positions I'm in. Um, and to be honest, like I agree with all the stuff you're saying, Sats. I think there's there's real narrative, like momentum potential that has yet to break out. Um, but I actually think it's even more simple than that. I I think even without any of that, uh, you can just make a pretty straightforward uh case that it's A, undervalued right now and based on fundamentals, and B, um, it just has like better support worked into it because of the timing and structure. Like we always worry about these VC backed coins, the what happens uh after TGE, the unlocks, all that stuff. That's why the chart got decimated uh post-tgE. Um, and now you're seeing this classic U pattern where it's like, okay, it got like bloodied and battered. And now there's clearly a lot of like VC backing of people who are holding the token long term. There's people who are really like actively working to make this a success. And it's actually doing like it's doing volume, just doing legitimate, um legitimate revenue, legitimate volume, uh like 10 to 15% of hype's uh numbers regularly. And so you're looking at a coin that's like, what is it, like 400 million market cap right now? It's pretty small for for what's what it's doing. And um, you know, even without an explosive narrative, it's just got a great floor here where it's like a lot of the selling has happened. There's people who clearly believe in this long term, and it's a real product so that that does revenue. So um I think it's like a weirdly safe hold, other than the fact that it's you know, it's not the most liquid. It's it's gonna have a lot of volatility still. Uh but but the dips get eaten up because there's real demand for it, and there's people who are going to support the chart because they have heavy bags uh that they're gonna be in for the next couple years. That's how these unlocks work.
SPEAKER_00I think I'll give my outlandish thesis here. I think they're gonna get a Robin Hood integration, and Robin Hood are gonna use them on the back end. I think Robin Hood are gonna use lighter on the back end.
SPEAKER_03That's an insane take.
SPEAKER_00I think insiders are driving the price up right now because they know they know that partnership's coming. Because he's on the board, number one. He's on like the guy, uh the guy who runs Robin Hood's on the board of Lighter. Uh, he's early investor, and he keeps on saying in interviews our long-term bet is that TradFi will adopt decentralized rails and big partnerships are to be be announced uh like in the coming months.
SPEAKER_02Like well, I'm telling you right now, Seth, that could be if that's true, like if that's your thesis. I don't think insiders are buying up anything right now. Like, you can go look at open interest, you can look at the amount of volume, there's just not that much like volume liquidity happening. So this is like like if that narrative happened, you would see you would see a lot more activity there. I I think I think that hasn't even materialized in the price action yet.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we would see the type of green candle, the type of candle we saw in SpaceX when it went to Mars.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, obviously that's crazy speculation. I might be months off here. I might be months off, I could be years off, but I generally think this is the way this could go. I think this is the way this could go. Everyone's trying to implement perps. Like we just saw Culchie like bring perps to America. Robin Hood 100% are paying attention to this. They're 100% going, how the fuck can we? Yeah, they have to, they have to do it, and it makes sense. You know, he's on, he's very connected to the lighter team. This is crazy speculation. I am retarded, you know. But we're this is a chance I'm willing to take, and especially on this chart. Now we're coming from somebody who hasn't bought yet.
SPEAKER_02Now, one count, I was gonna say one counterpoint. This is like we're both actually even we're all kind of aligned on this making sense. I'm exposed, I'm bullish. Like, I I think that is something that makes sense. The counterpoint is like that could all be true and it could all play out, but like if if Bitcoin shows weakness, if any, you know, anything else happens, like if that does take a few months to play out, this could still like there's risk that this could still go 60% lower before any of that happens. So like I I fully acknowledge, like, I don't feel like you know, super comfy going to bed at night every night holding a large position of this. There is risk involved, and like this thing could fall apart at any point still. Um, but there's a lot going for it in comparison to any other alts, and I would much rather hold this than Bitcoin.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, there's definitely real risk of it all falling apart, and it's one of them things you're right, but you're right too early, so it means you're wrong. Um, so you are never right unless you just hold. Unless you just hold and sit through the absolute crazy downside, what could come.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think that's the move. I think that's the move in this case. I'm gonna as best you can.
SPEAKER_00I'm gonna wait a little bit. I want to buy on a discount. I should have bought the other day when I was saying in the group chat, thank god I didn't buy liar like a twat.
SPEAKER_02Um but you will get dips, you're gonna get dips.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I will get dips, I will get entries, but like this is one of my main priorities right now. This is I have I haven't bought a coin properly with with the size I really want since Zcash. That was the last coin I bought in last October with like actual genuine size, like full size. And I think this will be the next thing I buy with full size. But you know, I could be wrong, I could be a moron, you know, I usually am. But this is something I'm really interested in. I I I think that you know the Robin Hood partnership could never happen. That could be bullshit, but still, even even on the thing, like even on the if you if you delete that from your mind, in my mind it still is undervalued. It's like what 500 million market cap. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna reference FTV like that's complete bullshit. I think it's yeah, 450, 450 market cap and like a simple value comp being hype, it is undervalued to me. Um maybe, maybe some lighter height hater can prove me wrong and tell me why I'm brain dead.
SPEAKER_02But so one thing to to to just back what you were saying, I like I feel like people oftentimes give a negative association with some of the VC backing. But when you have a confluence and the and there's like real significant vested interest across uh some of the top funds and some of the things you're talking about, like I think it is something to pay attention to when it's combined with like the product is growing and there's some mind share. So like Founders Fund, Han Ventures, Dragonfly, and Robin Hood. Robin Hood, like you said, made a strategic investment in their last round. Um I think when you combine all those things, like that's pretty interesting. Like they're not giving up on this, right? I think it's pretty early innings.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's a it's a strong list. It's a strong list of uh of people, including Robin Hood. Hate to be that guy. I'm gonna keep on yapping on about this now. I might make a thesis on Twitter and it ended up being completely wrong, and then I knee slide it in two years' time when it happens. Um Sats.
SPEAKER_01I haven't seen a SAS thesis on twitter.com in ages. Hasn't been anything to write. You retired since bags.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I did. I uh I hit I hit three days of BAGs uh wins. Um gas went from nine mil to 60 and then crashed to zero, never done one again, never done one since. But there's generally actually been nothing to write something on, which I actually give away.
SPEAKER_02Man, do you guys remember that? I wood was asleep when this happened. And and Wood was actually you had bought a bag and you were up fat and you were bullish. And well, we all were. And I remember like Ralph, we were in the we were in the risk on chat, we were like, oh man, like someone wake Wood up. This is bad. It was like two in the morning my time. I was out. It didn't even matter if you had been awake though, because it happened in like legitimately, what seven minutes it took five to seven minutes for it to go down 95%. Yeah, that was awful.
SPEAKER_00Um I can't even remember if I got hammered on that one. You got hammered.
SPEAKER_01We all got hammered. I I my I I I lost six figures overnight while I was sleeping on that one. Um light work, light work, no big deal. Um, but I want to go back to lighter. I know you guys are bullish. Isn't this a little bit dependent on Bitcoin? Or do are we you know not believers in that anymore?
SPEAKER_00I think it could have a little hype moment though. That that's me being very it's me being very optimistic, but I think it could have a little hype moment um where it outperforms to the upside. And but we'll see. I like I think my my best judge, and this was something I was good at in the past, but obviously last cycles were different, but it was literally just waiting for Bitcoin to nuke and seeing how price reacts to the coins I like. Um if you see a slight bit of relative strength, um, you usually can catch a big move on the upside when Bitcoin falls with a slight reversal the next day. Um, doesn't work as to a big of an extent as it did them cycles before, but I would like a dip. I would like the next dip, I'm not gonna hesitate. Um I'm just gonna buy a position, put my stops 25-30% lower, and um see what happens.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I just uh I just sent more money into Coinbase. So I'm slowly creeping my way back in. Uh wire has not hit yet, but I sent a wire at like 10 a.m. this morning. Um, and it should hit, and uh, you know, might go find out.
SPEAKER_02So you know what's interesting about that, Wood, is uh I feel like you were clowning me in the group chat when I said it's it's time to log back on. And you're clowning. I just like to clown everybody about everything. You are wiring money back in.
SPEAKER_00Literally logging on.
SPEAKER_01You know what I almost did? You know what I almost did last week, um, the other day as Bitcoin was nuking, was I I I took a video of all of my uh Bitcoin cells from August of 2025, and it was so glorious, guys. It was every sell above 110k, and there were a lot of people. I videoed my order history because I just was selling, selling, selling, selling, selling, selling. And that money just went out of crypto forever.
SPEAKER_02And now it's do make a matchup and put like a really obnoxious like song in the background or something, and then just who were you sending the video to?
SPEAKER_00Just keep it.
SPEAKER_01I was gonna tweet it as Bitcoin was tapping 58k, and then I realized that that wasn't really, you know, people were probably hurting, getting liquidated in pain. And I was like, you know what, this is not the nice thing to do.
SPEAKER_00I should please tell me you recorded the video on your phone as well.
SPEAKER_01I sure did. Oh yeah. I recorded the video on my phone, I scrolled up and down just to make sure everyone could see every single Bitcoin that I sold above 110k. And I was like gearing up and ready to post it, and then I said, you know what, I'm not gonna do this, I'm gonna spare people. Um tweet.
SPEAKER_00You should have just banged it up, you should have just let it go.
SPEAKER_02You've gone soft, man. The fact that you even have the second thought, you used to not think before you tweeted. You just fired him off.
SPEAKER_01I just fired him off, but now I don't want to be. I'm trying not to be as insufferable as I once was. I realized that that person might not be the person I want to be going forward.
SPEAKER_00This this word tweet got like I saw this on the timeline, I instantly started laughing, man. Instantly started laughing. The uh you quote tweeted uh 53% of uh all Bitcoin is in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss with that picture. This one instantly got me because that is crazy as well. 53% of Bitcoin is at a loss. What the fuck?
SPEAKER_01And it's guys that look like that that are all underwater.
SPEAKER_00It's EGF5 with this neck there. It's all of them. It's all of them. It's such a specific person. I sat in my room with one of my friends as well. We were at my apartment. I saw this tweet and he saw it at the same time as well. We're refreshing on time, and I was like, did you see Woodsweet sitting there laughing at it, man?
SPEAKER_01I'm glad to be underrated. Speaking of Bitcoin, though, people are calling Bitcoin dead. They're saying it's lost its narrative. It's uh reeked, it's reeked, it's reached its goal. It's reached its goal, it's achieved ownership on balance sheets, government recognition, ETFs. You can buy Bitcoin anywhere. Like what is left for Bitcoin to do? And our boy Chrome posted Chrome's very angry. He's very bearish right now. So take all this with a grain of salt.
SPEAKER_03He's very angry.
SPEAKER_01And and we'll post the counterargument to this too and talk about that. But Bitcoin is bottomed because people are scared. I mean, these are, I mean, and I don't disagree with him to some degree. I think this is a little far. Um, but we have what we have said on this show, and you guys said it today, you'd rather hold lit than Bitcoin. We'd rather hold hype than Bitcoin. It depends on size, you know.
SPEAKER_02To be fair, to be fair, that's because we're degenerates.
SPEAKER_01Uh we just want we just want asymmetric upside for fucking 5% moves. Yeah. Um okay, so the hard asset, fix apply, digital money arguments. If they were gonna work, they would have worked by now, right? What is the next thing for Bitcoin? This cycle we had ETFs, we had government adoption, we have Clarity Act, whatever. Like what's next for Bitcoin? Why do we care about it still?
SPEAKER_00You know what's a classic thing to always lean back on with Bitcoin? The halving. The Bitcoin halving.
SPEAKER_03It is bullish. It's coming up soon.
SPEAKER_00When's the next when in doubt, Bitcoin halving date? Uh, next date. So we'll get bullish around mid-2028. That's a long way away. Fucking hell. That's a long way away.
SPEAKER_01Well, we'll pump into the halving. We usually talk right at the halving, right? Yeah. But so it's it what Chrome is kind of saying, and I kind of don't disagree, like, we've reached peak attention on Bitcoin. Bitcoin isn't cool anymore. It's not new, it's not the new thing. People are making more money trading AI shitters. Um, why are we gonna buy Bitcoin again? Do you guys like think that and and then and and and this isn't just Chrome saying this, this is a pretty commonly held thought process. We keep seeing people saying they're selling their Bitcoin, selling their Bitcoin. Then I got people like Cadence and Seamister and whatever saying, like, people do this every fucking cycle. Like this time is no different.
SPEAKER_00This is the first time.
SPEAKER_01People are saying that this time is different, though.
SPEAKER_00And I kind of agree this time might be different. It's like back in the day, like you used to get clowned for holding Bitcoin, like when Bitcoin was went back to 16k. Like, people would laugh at you. Yeah, people would laugh and be like, oh bro, that shit's dead. And but now it's different. They don't just laugh at you, they're just like, Oh, you hold Bitcoin, you're you're an idiot. Like you're just gay. There's no other way, like, there's no other way to put it. You just get clowned, you don't even get clowned anymore. They just sort of go like write you off, they're like moron.
SPEAKER_01Um in fairness, everybody I know that's a Bitcoin maxi sucks. Who is that? Give me one example. There are people I know in real life that are like obsessed with Bitcoin, yeah. Uh, and Rex. I like Rex though. Rex is Rex.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. Rex is a good guy. Even Rex is on the timeline. Guy holds Bitcoin and he's going, What's the next narrative? I don't see it.
SPEAKER_02No one funds their own bags as hard as Rex.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's impressive. What is he impressive?
SPEAKER_02His own bags are not safe from his butt from his angst.
SPEAKER_01But like, okay, so we can make this kind of simple because this is how I think about it. Bitcoin's an attention tree, it's an it's a meme at its core, right? Like, it's a meme at its core that we've memed to $60,000 today, peaked of 120k, whatever it was. Um, when memes were ripping, and this is gonna be a crazy comparison. So I'm comparing fucking like a dog coin to Bitcoin, but I'm gonna do it anyways. Um when you have when you hold a coin and you're like, okay, what's the next catalyst for this coin? Is it gonna get a listing? Is it gonna go uh on this exchange? Who's gonna buy this coin? I guess like that's where we're at with Bitcoin in the very like in like a simplistic way. Like, what is next? And I don't know what's next. Like coins are out there to replace it. People are calling for Zec to replace Bitcoin. How does Bitcoin reclaim that? I just don't know the answer. Price go up.
SPEAKER_02So, like, first off, I wanna I wanna say that everything is a meme. I think uh the last like five years of price action on on everything has just more and more started to like the advent of Robin Hood, all this stuff, it's be becoming more and more clear everything is a meme. You saw the SpaceX IPO, like it didn't matter what the for the first five days, it didn't matter what the company was or did, it's just it was the thing to trade. Everything's a meme. So let's start with that. Um it's like it's comical. It's it's it's really funny because we were on the other side of this like six months ago, yeah, when everything was so bullish, and you know, the chart, the Bitcoin chart just refused to go down. It just kept grinding higher. And like we had this sentiment of like, you know what, like this time is different. Uh the four-year cycle is finally broken, and like all this stuff of the early Bitcoin years, like it's breaking out, it's this, you know, it's in this new uh this new paradigm. And like, you know, you can't just expect it's never gonna have this crazy 60, 70% downturn again because it's a matured asset. Guess what? The exact four-year cycle plays out. We see the consolidation and distribution and and price decline exactly how it has played out before. And now, just like past cycles, we've got this the same thing happening. Everyone's angry, everyone says it's lost its narrative, it's no longer store value, it's no longer a hard asset, no longer this, no longer that. You're crazy to think anything's ever, you know, it's ever gonna go up again. Guess what? The four-year cycle is like playing out perfectly to a T. It's almost comical that everyone, like everyone seems to have these exact same like timeline on on when things are gonna go down, when we're gonna bottom, etc. Like, as if it's like a self-fulfilling prophecy. And we're now saying like the narrative is dead and lost forever when it's literally playing out exactly as it has before. Um, I'm not like I'm not one to like I I was on the other side. I thought the whole four-year cycle thing was ridiculous. But like until it's disproven, then it's I hate to say it like this. There's kind of like I don't want to undermine the gravity of what people have experienced, but it's kind of like, hey, nothing to see here. You know, like if you zoom out far enough, like it just looks like a continuation of what's been happening.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Um, and it's it's not like Bitcoin's the only asset going down right now. There's a ton of liquidity suck. Go pull up the gold chart, like gold is hemorrhaging like crazy right now. Yeah, silver is completely uh retraced its entire pump.
SPEAKER_00The only thing not in a bear market is stocks right now. And they're tiering.
SPEAKER_02So like what I I related more to C Meister's post post here. It's like, hey guys, like if you've been around, like it's kind of the exact same thing here. Um you're just you're just logged in too much. You're you're zoomed, you're zoomed in too much. Yeah. Um, it doesn't make it any any less bad. It sucks while it's happening. It sucks horribly.
SPEAKER_01Oh, I did see this ledger tweet. This is a good thing. So let's zoom out and look at this ledger tweet because I think ledger has a really this as a real this is a really good point in my eyes. If you do zoom out and we see number go up or whatever, like back to what I was saying initially, we've gotten everything we've wanted for uh in crypto. Anything we could have asked for, like we've gotten it and then some. Um, but like whenever the market recovers and number goes up, we just start trading scams again. Ponzies, Luna's, ohms, time, dog with hat, bonk, whatever it is. Memes, scams, whatever. That's what we trade. So when is that gonna change? Or does that change? I know you said everything is a is a is a meme puzzle, but like what what like at some point the industry has to be taken, has to do something, and maybe that's hyper liquid. I think that's why people love hype so much. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02I think it's such a good question. Um, and this could be the existential downfall eventually. Like, this is the massive question about like, is this whole experiment going to work long term or not? The thing I think is like you can't control retail behavior, you can't control the human hive mind that like we are all gonna look for whatever is like the most like eccentric, volatile asset because we're all, you know, at the end of the day, people are on the internet out trying to get rich quick, like, and so there's gonna be that behavior. The question is, are there gonna be these one or two things that solidify the entire experiment? And does everything concentrate into that? And does value accrual happen appropriately? And that's where I think really you look at hyperliquid, you look at Solana as the possible outcomes. Yeah, where does it all accrue? Yeah, yeah, like prediction markets are a great product market fit. We'll find out does the value accrual happen properly to polymarket? Uh you know, like there's all obviously off-chain solutions there too, but like, so maybe poly market's another one. Uh Solana, this is what the big thing that's been undergoing is like they really did win in terms of great technology onboarding people to use it, um, like the you know, the ability to bring everything on chain, but they've been lacking the value accrual component to the token. The token pumped because of all the speculatory stuff that you're talking about, it got pumped like a meme. Now there's very important developments that have to happen where they at some point work towards value accrual of the token in a way that makes sense. If that happens, and if like if uh like product market fit continues and people continue using it more and more and there's more use cases, then yeah, like I don't I don't think Solana would be undervalued here. I think it could be you know massively, it could experience massive growth, but they have to figure that part out first. Hype obviously has like a you know a head start on that in terms of like the tokenomics and all that. Um but I is does that make sense that there's a world where like all of the the mimification of everything still funnels into these things that are the hub for them.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. Would you say prediction markets have had a positive effect on crypto?
SPEAKER_01I would say they've had no effect.
SPEAKER_00I would say they have no effect as well. Which is a strange one.
SPEAKER_02Well, it it's kind of like what do you deem as crypto because the beauty of prediction markets to me is that they allow for like it's like consumer use. It's a consumer use product that's really, really like uh like there's there's something very valuable there. But it's not like a direct crypto product, it's like it's using crypto infrastructure, right? Yeah, but like a consumer doesn't have to think about the word crypto when they're using it, they're they're just using the product, it's like a consumer product. Yeah, it's crazy how the word crypto has got to that point as well, where it's like everyone just wants to fucking steer as clear away from it as possible, like get as far away as possible, but the tech behind it is actually good, like it is a crypto product, even though it's not, and I don't think it'll be marketed or advertised as that, and I don't think it needs to be.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, um, it's it it was it was kind of crazy how when PolyMarket, like I don't know if you guys remember when Polymarket first came out, and people were getting long polygon, nothing ever happened, yes, nothing ever happened to Polygon, it was it literally just went down only consistently, and they are the best one of the one of the biggest products of from crypto ever. Um, and now they're moving away from it. Like well, and that's kind of the bear case for Solana as well.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, like if you like what is Solana just a gas token? Why would value accrue to Solana?
SPEAKER_02Exactly.
SPEAKER_01So short term, yes, they're not to the underlying infrastructure, especially if you think that there is gonna be real infrastructure built in crypto that isn't scammy or Ponti or whatever, and it's built on Solana, that's the bet, then why would you buy Solana? You buy whatever the info is.
SPEAKER_02I think that's the point. Exactly. We're at this critical juncture now where it's like Solana took the approach of we're gonna build the best thing, right? We're gonna build the best chain, we're gonna win the light, the the network war, right? Okay, you actually did. Like they pretty much won that. But they on the value accrual, on the why is the Solana token matter, they kind of were like, uh, don't worry about that. It'll it'll be worth something later. We'll figure it out once we have all the the activity, then we'll do that. And now they're still it's they're still effectively saying that. Like that's the silent thing, is like, don't worry about that. We're just gonna be the best product, and eventually it's gonna be worth something. But it's like, okay, like now's it's slowly becoming the time where it's like we're not we, you know, we can't just take your word for it for too much longer. It's you gotta figure out how the token plays into all this at a certain point. Um, and if you don't do it soon, I know they've got this voting process going on to make it more deflationary, etc. That'd be a good start. If they don't do it soon, then it's like, okay, like we can't take your word for it any longer. We're just gonna use Solana, but if the token is not worth anything, um yeah, which is a problem, you know, it's a problem and an opportunity at the same time because if they do figure it out, then how could they figure it out?
SPEAKER_01Like, I just don't even know.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think that's what do you think is a way of the stuff. I think it starts with the inflation schedule. To me, it starts with the inflation. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I actually don't know what they can do as well. The C the you remember the phone seeker? That was a real weird one for me. I I don't know what that was for. The only thing I can imagine it was for is to I guess develop real core users of Solana who are gonna go try all the apps, like whenever they come out, but I don't really get why they done that. You know, is that is that the only reason to create more core users and have this like power users, I guess, of of Solana and all Solana apps? Because what else would you want a Solana mobile phone for? That's like walking around going, come and rob me.
SPEAKER_01I've got two of them.
SPEAKER_00I've got two. But you bought them for the airdrop now.
SPEAKER_01I got them for the bonk airdrop back in the day, and um I forget what else I got from them, but I have two of them, and each of them have like I think like 10 or 15 Solana on them still. And I have to get the I need to turn them on and figure out my passwords and all that. Or that Solana might just be burned forever.
SPEAKER_00Well, was there any any like was the phone fucking good? Was it worth using it?
SPEAKER_01It was terrible, it was awful. It was a horrible phone, it was terrible. I have two of them because I could and and they sold out really quickly. But the concept was like, oh, I'm gonna buy this, then I'm gonna get an air, I'm gonna get a bonk airdrop and some other and a bunch of free shit. The idea was that like by buying the phone, you would be one of the core users of Solana for this cycle, and every project would airdrop those people who owned the phones. So people were scrambling to buy as many phones as they could. And I got two of them, and I felt like I was gonna make so much fucking money. And then in reality, I think I like broke even on the phones, and um, now I just have these two dog shit Solana phones that I can't even turn on and have like a few thousand bucks of soul trapped on them. So yeah.
SPEAKER_00Fuck man, but like but this is what I don't get. Why did they do that then? At least they're trying to do something. Yeah, but why would you create them out of all things? I'm gonna compete with Apple. I have no idea. It's a lot of people. All the people to compete with you don't want to compete with them.
SPEAKER_02Like, do you guys do you guys think there's a path though? Like if if Solana's used more and more, and like let's say there's more breakout apps, like there's a few more big consumer apps that come out, and like it becomes a place where consistently you're seeing like really good products come out. Um, is there like any type of path towards like I don't know, just fixing the relationship where I don't want to go and say buy like buy back and burn because I think there's you know that's such a uh like overly simplified solution, but like is there a way where they can charge these like nominal fees uh that basically were just like lock like lock Solana, lock some of the supply that it that comes in a steady stream with like you know, small minuscule fees or whatever it is. Is there a path towards that that like really helps with the tokenomics of the actual value accrual to the soul token?
SPEAKER_00I don't know. I feel like locks and shit just never really do the intended thing. Like you can go look at the Pump Fun chart. Yeah, it needs uh that one's contested though, you know. We don't know if them locks are actually happening. But what's Solana actual revenue as a chain? What is there uh what is a daily revenue, for example, or a monthly revenue?
SPEAKER_01I don't know. We should go and do an analytics.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so like how like would you fact because because there's all these uh products that operate independently that like they generate X amount of revenue and they operate on Solana, but are I assume you're not counting those, right?
SPEAKER_00No, no, I'm not counting as revenue. Yeah, Solana is a chain. How much are they generating per month or per week or whatever?
SPEAKER_01Chains, Solana did chain fees, three hundred and eighty-two thousand.
SPEAKER_00What today? Uh last 24 hours.
SPEAKER_02$382,000.
SPEAKER_01Yes. Tron Tron did 900 twice.
SPEAKER_00What the fuck is going on with the Tron? This guy, if I look at the Tron chart right now.
SPEAKER_01Tron bowls, man.
SPEAKER_00What are you trying to do? Hype only did 43. Okay, Tron's going down fast. Good.
SPEAKER_02Um wait, hype did $43,000 of revenue yesterday?
SPEAKER_01That's what DeFi Llama I'm on. I'm on DeFiLlama.com change. That seems awfully low. Shoot the messenger.
SPEAKER_02This is 24 hour volume?
SPEAKER_0124 hour desk volume, yeah, yeah. Um what if long 37 billion in DeFi locked up?
SPEAKER_00I don't even know where that money goes in Solana.
SPEAKER_01What are they where's that going? I have no idea, but let's see what it's not enough to just.
SPEAKER_02Currently, it's not enough to just because that's what, like 130 million ARR. Uh yeah, it's not enough.
SPEAKER_00It's not enough for a 70 bill valuation. But like we're not going to be able to do that.
SPEAKER_02Are they at like 70 billion?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, we're not we're not we're not doing Tekabita's here, but it's uh still. I I don't know where that money's going, though. That's the thing as well. I guess they just pump it all back into the ecosystem through Solana Ventures, but then I don't really see them being that active. Uh maybe I'm completely wrong.
SPEAKER_01I mean, dude, Pump Pump did 980 million in annualized fees.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_01And the revenues are crazy as well. And so they are probably the biggest locker of Solana.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, through the pools.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. I mean, it's like what what what you were describing is what Pump Fund does. And no one's gonna do that better, and no one is gonna do that better than Pump Fund did.
SPEAKER_00But they also just sold every single bit. This is this this is the problem Solano are gonna have. If the fees are generated in Seoul by these big platforms like Pub Pump Fun and that, they're immediately incentivized to sell to back to USD. Um, and then that means they can't really do buybacks with this like the revenue they make with the 500 grand a day they're making, because it's not gonna make a difference. Um yeah, it puts them in a tough spot. I don't know. I can't really see a maybe we need we need Vivi back on, man.
SPEAKER_02I do wonder how much like locked how much soul is from all the bonded pairs on Pump Fun is just like sitting there in the easy.
SPEAKER_00I I think like on almost like two percent of supply, no? Something it's big. Something wild like that, it has to be.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so as much as we complain about Pump Fun, um, it's actually been uh well I would say value additive to Solana from a value accrual standpoint, other than the fact that they sell so much.
SPEAKER_00Uh yeah, it's been great for Solana, but like still there.
SPEAKER_02It's probably sold more than they've actually have in there. It's locked though. But but then it goes back to the open market, so theoretically long term.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I I saw someone say the other day as well like do we think the bull market would have been remotely close to what it was without without PumpFun? I don't think it would have been either.
SPEAKER_01No, but someone else would have done it. Although I guess they were the First people to do it, so never mind.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, yeah, they were the first people to do it. And I think, like, I don't know, would would someone else have done it?
SPEAKER_01And you know, I think the legality of it was so was so shaky that like it took someone with balls to do it, honestly.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, uh I think it both can be both things can be true that it made the bull run uh more than it would have been. Like it was it was a great catalyst for the bull run. At the same time, there were so many I don't even want to say unintended consequences, but like ripple effect consequences. Like what we've seen with token dilution is is like the biggest problem and one of the one of the biggest problems of crypto. All these worthless tokens out there now.
SPEAKER_00I think they did speed run, they s they speedrun like the experiment of what we needed in crypto to try and get down to what actually is gonna matter, and now we're at that spot and still no one knows. So I guess we did speed run that.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, but uh like if if pump fun, if something like that didn't exist right now where you could just launch tens of thousands of tokens a day and fragment liquidity, like what would something like hype be trading at right now? Yeah, it wouldn't be good for hype, probably long term, because it would be ridiculous, you know, there'd just be so much concentration into it that like it just wouldn't be there, used to not be this many coins to trade.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think it's a tough one though, because I think the people who buy Pump Fun coins, especially now, like I don't know, I don't think that makes any different. I feel like the people who have sold all them coins would have rotated into hype or whatever now. Um, I guess if it didn't happen throughout the bull market, it would have been crazy, but like right now, surely everyone's done with that game.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_01Um I have a question for you. Uh Anselm yesterday on Market Bubble said if he got the keys to Pump Fun, how would he fix it? He said the three things he would do would be uh deliver the airdrop, incentivize deeper uh liquidity, and kill the copycat launches. You were obviously the product guy at PunkFun for a little bit. How would you like fix if you could do anything to fix Pump Fun and make it better and like make it more sustainable? What are those the three things you would do as well, or are there other things you think are more important?
SPEAKER_00What was the things again?
SPEAKER_01Uh he would deliver the eardrop. Obviously, you have to do that. Yeah, incentivize deeper uh liquidity, which I know is something you talked about, wanted to do a bonk. It's literally what we done, yeah. What you did, and then kill copycat launches.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, killing vamps is really tough, and uh everyone's got an opinion on it, and no one's got a direct solution. Um, because killing vamps is like there's always a massive negative to whatever you choose. So it's not as simple as just like coins could end up getting held hostage by like bad devs. Let's say if you a token can't be created and are like say 10 minutes after the first tick is uh announced, then it all gets hounded into this one thing. Like, so there's so many caveats to doing the third one, especially. Second one 100% incentives deeper liquidity. What we done, we didn't do that. We we didn't done like we didn't do milestones, we didn't do the 10 mil, we just done it from like from pretty much from mint basically. It was uh it just had thicker liquidity pools. There was like 60 or something like that, yeah. 65% of deeper liquidity pools. Um, and then obviously number that actually worked as well. That actually worked, but I think the problem with the problem with bonk and and and that like launch pad area is people just immediately buy pump coins only because they're like, oh, pump are gonna crime this. That's still the narrative in the trenches. People but don't buy coins based on narrative. They go, oh, is pump fund gonna be willing to crime this? Are they gonna penguin this? Are they gonna do this? This is never gonna never gonna change until that changes, and I don't think it ever will. So it's kind of a monopoly, no one can really compete. I think that's a given now. Like there is no competitors to Pump Fun. Um, and this airdrop, obviously, I I don't think this would revive the trenches in any any way, shape, or form. Um, I think it would short term, maybe a week, and then people would lose their money. Um but I just don't know where that airdrop rotates to. I would hammer that chart with my airdrop. I would say bring back memes, but I'm like, what memes? What memes? You know, where are they coming from? Because that they sure ain't coming from Pump Fun and Terminal Traders. They're not coming there, it's not coming through that cycle. So I don't know.
SPEAKER_01They've done every meme that's possible. It can't, I struggle to believe there's anything left.
SPEAKER_00No, but I saw in I saw uh I opened up a trench group chat today for the first time, but they were doing this fucking cat coin we were doing two years ago. They were doing this El Gato coin. No, it was one coin.
SPEAKER_01El Gato coin. Oh, I made good money on Algato.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, exactly. And I'm thinking, bro, we I remember doing this two two and a half years ago. We're running out, we're doing the we're just running back the same time, um, but with just shittier conditions and and the most advanced tools ever. So I would love to agree with Ansom and say, look, like let's go back to memes, but I where are they coming from? Because they sure ain't coming off launch pads. Um, but maybe they do short term. Like honestly, if it if the airdrop comes that week, there'll be a meme that goes to 20 mil, 30 mil. It'll be so fun.
SPEAKER_01I haven't heard anyone say say pump is gonna crime this in a very long time.
SPEAKER_00Oh, really? Is that just a lot of people?
SPEAKER_02I think that's just because we left the chats.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, that might be yeah, we got removed from them, Chats.
SPEAKER_02I feel like this the third the third point, the kill the copycat launches. You spoke about it a little bit, Sats, but it's just not doable, right?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I can't think of a clear way where like we thought about this a lot, and there was just always a negative. There's always a massive downside to doing it. And and and the one thing is as well, when you change something, especially when we were in bonks position, when we changed something and we introduced a potential negative, people would automatically default to pump coins again because they would be like, This one's getting held hostage, let's just go trade the pump one. Um, and that's the problem when you're competing with pump and and like any any any positive change you make in the trenches has a downside effect. Yeah, like we made liquidity pools thicker. Um like and they they were definitely thicker, but then price didn't move as aggressively, like market cap wouldn't fly up, and people would be like, oh, the the pump one's uh winning, so I have to buy that one. And they don't understand, they don't they don't look into liquidity hard, like 75% of the trends don't even know what liquidity is. Um and they don't care, they just care what price is.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, so I I have a question, and I don't I don't think this will offend anybody at bunk because it's kind of obviously true, but pump has been around for a few years now. Like most crypto products don't last that long. Like OpenC died. Uh other most things die. Pump fun is still around, it's still relevant, we're still talking about it. Yeah, bunk fun obviously tried to come for it, tried to make some improvements. Um, I think at this point we can say it worked in the beginning to some degree, but long term it's not working. I haven't seen anything in a while. Why do you think it failed? And do you think anybody can ever dethrone them?
SPEAKER_00I don't I don't think anyone can dethrone them. I don't think anyone can dethrone them. I think they have it solved, and I think they they simply own the game and they own that core user base um in the trenches who decide what happens really. Like there's it's like, for example, gek like geke. Um like they own that core group of people. Um, so I think there won't be a competitor. I think we've seen we've seen so many attempts now. We saw printer, we saw bonk, we've seen fucking bags, yeah. We've seen so many now. Uh, and now we're seeing Uniswap, which is just that's not gonna happen. That's that's not gonna happen. Um, I don't think we see a compare. I think they've got that lockdown and they're fucking good at it. I gotta give it to them. They're fucking good at it, they're good at making a shitload of money. Um but I think there's just things in the trenches that cannot be fixed, and it will just stay as a casino. But I think Ansem did say in one of them clips, like when he says memes are coming back, he doesn't think the trenches are coming back. He thinks trenches trenching is dead, which I fully agree with. I think trenching is completely dead. But then did he elaborate on that?
SPEAKER_02What like what is he what was? I don't think he did.
SPEAKER_00I don't think he did elaborate on it much, but um if that if that's his stance, I'd I just where where does he want memes to come from? Does he want another asteroid on ETH?
SPEAKER_02I was gonna say that's like okay, now from like a like we never have used to have to think about it this way, but from like an like a token infrastructure standpoint, like where does it originate from? Is it is it saying, okay, it's an old one, an old old memes or whatever, or is it because if if you can't pinpoint where they originate from and how they originate in a way that they can survive, you just have this fundamental problem where it's just there's there's this bottleneck where ultimately things are so advanced now in ways that can just kill momentum, like momentum is too easily killed. Yeah, even if he's right from a like a spiritual uh like a what people want type of thing, it's just like um there's so many issues now that didn't exist in the past, like tooling and all that.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it all comes back to where is it gonna originate from? Like, and I can't see a method what is clean right now, and Pumper even expanding to ETH, I think, so like I think that's been in the talks for it for a while, which they're probably gonna do.
SPEAKER_02I think they I think they launched it a while back. It's just like you know, it's another once again to me that's an Ethereum problem. Like, where's the demand on that? If it yeah, if it's just a worse user experience, there's more late, you know, more latency issues. Yeah, just not a good venue for it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I would love the idea for memes to come back, man, but I just simply can't see a path to where it does. And I think uh people who haven't seen the I guess behind the scenes in a launch pad, they they they they go like, oh, I could make this change and this change, and then you actually go and do it, especially when you're not at pump. I think pump are the only ones who could actually make a change and it's stick, but they're not gonna do that because it's well that I guess that's ultimately it.
SPEAKER_02They they could change the course of history if they wanted to, but it would need a way at their bottom line.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, they could. What the the changes Ansom are talking about, if pump done it, it would work. But if a competitor does the same thing, it's not gonna work. Um, but are they gonna do that? Because whatever change they make is gonna impact their revenue. They love the fucking, they love relaunches, they love vamps. That makes them a good load of money. It's good for them. It's good for the business. It has to, if if they were implementing Ansem's changes, they have to pivot away from making money. You know, they would have to sacrifice a hit in revenue. Their business. And yeah, exactly. They would have to sacrifice a hit in revenue, which historically they've never ever been willing to do, even though potentially they might make more long term. And they probably will, honestly.
SPEAKER_02Would they make more long term? No, they wouldn't make it. That's a fair question. I don't think they would all it would be great. We would we would love it because we would all make the the the the consumer would make more, but like would we even make more money?
SPEAKER_01We would have a chance to make more.
SPEAKER_02We would have a chance to the the uh the lottery ticket odds would improve ever so slightly. Yes, I guess. Um yeah, but I don't see unfortunately, I don't see an argument for why it would benefit them.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I don't I can't see it either. I can't see it either, but maybe fucking miracle, you know, they uh they airdrop and they make changes.
SPEAKER_01Um I would love to oh my god, a pump fun airdrop would hit like would hit the trenches like crack. Crypto like crack. It would be all anyone would talk about for a week or two.
SPEAKER_00I was saying this to someone else, but this the Ansom, the way Ansom interacts with them, he would never say that this has happened, but it feels like they're leading up to it, you know? It's like a media build up. It feels like a media build up to the airdrop. That's what it feels like to me. Ansome would say never mentioned it.
SPEAKER_02Like he just went kind of bullying them in the comments a little bit, and I'm like, something is a little bit more.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, something feels a little off. Yeah, we talked about this. I think when price when when Bitcoin first lost 100k, and we were like, and Pump Fun was still super relevant, and we were like, Pump fun has this crazy opportunity to come be like the savior of crypto and airdrop a stimmy to everybody, and now they really have that opportunity.
SPEAKER_02And think about it, it's gotta be timing because to be honest, as much as we all would have liked it when things were really bad in uh January or whatever, like they could have done it, but it would have been this like little tiny relief, and then price action is still price action, right? If Bitcoin nukes 20% after they do that, it would but if they do it at a time when the market has definitively bottomed.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's interesting. And they do it and they get goodwill for next cycle. They say, you know what, we're waiting until it's so bad, we're gonna make sure everyone remembers us and they still use us for the next bull run. We're not going there, guys.
SPEAKER_02Are we are we putting tinfoil hats on here?
SPEAKER_01Yes.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, tinfoil hats are on. I would love to say it, but it's not gonna be that I just looked as well, like their unlock schedule, they have unlocks on the 12th of next month. Um, and it's a pretty decent size unlock. Uh so not gonna be unlocks are bullish.
SPEAKER_02No, no, no, that's fine. But but I'm asking you guys, when would be the perfect time for them to do it?
SPEAKER_01In the next two, in the next four to eight weeks.
SPEAKER_02It's when the market looks like it's definitively body. I I think it would be in like October.
SPEAKER_00Sure. Yeah, September, October time. I would say the same. I think that would be a good one.
SPEAKER_02Whenever, whenever, like, let's say we have one more capitulation event, we range for a while, and then all of a sudden the market's grinding up. That's when you would want to do it.
SPEAKER_00People were expecting the pump fund airdrop to be big in value, they might just do a shit, like they might just give away 2k to everyone and call it quiz. That's what I would do if I was them.
SPEAKER_02I already don't sets, huh? What if they don't?
SPEAKER_00They're gonna scale it.
SPEAKER_02It is big.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, boop, boop gave me $40,000.
SPEAKER_00There's no way they give me in wood, like there's no way they give all three of us six figures, because that's what it would be. If they'd done a good airdrop, what why not? Why not? Why not? Jupiter did, boop did.
SPEAKER_02I guess boop did. Um I'm trying to think. What what are some I mean, hyperliquid did?
SPEAKER_01Guys, yeah, I remember the Uniswap airdrop. I got it was the first time I ever got an airdrop, and it was the greatest thing in the world. And PumpFun has the opportunity to do that to all of its new users and to people that have never really used crypto before, and say, and that's like that Uniswap airdrop, I can definitively say is what hooked me to this space. When I got that $10,000 STIMI, it was like, I'm never leaving.
SPEAKER_02This is think about this for a second, guys. And I'm gonna say, I'm gonna preface here. I'm gonna say, this is never this is not gonna happen. I don't believe this is gonna happen. But if it does, then edit out that I just said it's not gonna happen. Pump fun does have the opportunity. They are there's a lot of negative sentiment around them, right? There's a lot of people who have been complaining, asking for this and that. The chart is really battered down. There is an opportunity if they were to time a massive airdrop to all their loyal users at a time when the market is bottoming and and uh things are turning for the better, that they could create the same type of cult loyalty effect that hyperliquid did. Um and at that point, the chart would be the pump fund chart would be in a place where it is very uh receptive to positive feedback. That's all I'll say.
SPEAKER_01I'm here for this because I would make money.
SPEAKER_02I like this theory more and more.
SPEAKER_00I'm here for this as well. I would be also I'll be very here for that. All of crypto's here for this. All Pumpkin has to do is drop the codes. It's a catalyst. If I'm in their shoes right now, I'm waiting until August September time, and I'm saying there's a second snapshot. There's gonna be a second snapshot, and you can now farm the airdrop again. And you bring back the farmers for a few months, you bring up a shitload of fees, and then you airdrop with them fees you just acute, and then you ride off into the sunset.
SPEAKER_01That's why Razo would be a head over heels.
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah. Jesus Christ, he would.
SPEAKER_02So, like we talked about like why Pump Fun will never do this because it make these changes because they're bottom line, whatever. This would be the one justification for fixing a lot of the issues in the trenches. That, like you said, they're the one people in pole positions, the one group that has the ability, they could change things if they wanted to, they could change them for a time and they could deliver these types of airdrops honestly used to not be that crazy, like in the early days. Like, we we know I remember Tensor gave me a massive airdrop back in the NFT days. Magic uh when they were trying to compete with Magic Eat, and like these they would have the ability to do it if they felt like incentives were aligned.
SPEAKER_00Maybe, yeah. I imagine if we just we can dream, yeah, we can dream, we can dream. Maybe who knows?
SPEAKER_01We'll find out.
SPEAKER_02Maybe we're speaking it into existence, you know. Maybe this maybe a long across their timeline.
SPEAKER_00Bro, I I I maybe have some unpopular takes on Alon as well. I think he's a fucking great founder. I think he's like absolutely fucking killed it with this cycle.
SPEAKER_01He has killed it.
SPEAKER_00Anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves.
SPEAKER_01Exactly.
SPEAKER_00A lot of people absolutely hate him, but like it's just people who haven't. He's launched one of the most successful crypto companies of all time. Like exactly, like it is undisputed. This guy's undisputed goat. Yeah, this guy's one of the goats of crypto, and a lot of people hate that just because what's happened in the the last few months. And you know, yes, they've got some nefarious things what they do, like on Twitter. Allegedly, allegedly, yeah, alleged, alleged FUD campaigns and shit. But if you look at if you if you zoom out, it's fucking it's a mastermind, man. It's a mastermind, and he's killed it.
SPEAKER_01But if they do this airdrop thing that we're all tenfoiling about and execute it, like hands down, like yeah, it would be I'm not see, I'm not going there with you guys.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'm not calling him the GOAT, I'm not saying this mastermind stuff. I can't because there's been a lot of foul play that I can't overlook. But if he were to pull off this masterpiece that we just crafted in our minds and decided was a realistic thing, if he does that, then I'll what full 180, I'll say it was the whole plan all along, and it's it's beautiful execution.
SPEAKER_00That's the thing with everyone believed. I think that that belief has sort of faded out, but say like six months ago, everyone believed everyone was like, pump have a plan, you know? Yeah, pump have a plan. That was everyone's everyone's and then yeah, just after the token launched. I remember that like month after the token launched, everyone was like, No worries, Alan's got this under control, and then nothing would have happened. Then we realized that they didn't have anything under control, yeah. But what if they do they did the whole time?
SPEAKER_02We just gave them the plan, and he has permission to pretend like it was the plan all along.
SPEAKER_00So we don't need credit, we don't need credit. We don't need credit credit. Announcing the second uh the second snapshot.
SPEAKER_01Killer, fucking killer.
SPEAKER_00Uh yeah, it would be, it would be a killer.
SPEAKER_01Um, all right, let's wrap it up here. Um we will be back on Tuesday uh next week, right? Yeah, next week. So have a good weekend, boys. Um, maybe I mean I I don't know if we're ever gonna have a better idea than what we just had. So we have to end it on the back.
SPEAKER_02That's a good one. That was a good one.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, uh, we'll be back Tuesday next week. Go download FOMO, um, trade there, trade all the pump tickers there. Trade on the mobile app, trade on their web app, trade tokenized stocks, trade perps, trade using uh my promo code. Uh no, the risk on promo code. Your promo code. I'm not there yet. So maybe um we'll be back Tuesday at 12 o'clock Eastern. Good job, guys. See ya. Good stuff.