NEXTepisode S01E03: Stephen Zwart on ammonia technology and its role in the energy transition

Ammonia is more than just an intermediate chemical product, it is set to play a key role in the energy transition.

In our new NEXTepsiode, we sit down with @Stephen Zwart, VP for Ammonia, Urea, and Nitrates at @Stamicarbon, to discuss how the industry is redefining its role in a changing energy landscape.

We explore how integrated plant concepts unlock new efficiencies, how technology pathways are evolving, and what it takes to scale ammonia as both an energy carrier and a sustainable fertilizer feedstock.

From market dynamics to technology highlights, Stephen shares a his view on where opportunities lie and what challenges still need to be addressed. Don't miss out on this discussion that brings together technology, strategy, and insights into the future of the nitrogen industry.

#Ammonia #Decarbonization #NEXTCHEM #MAIRE

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:13

All right, welcome everybody to a new edition of next episode, the podcast that talks about the energy transition. Uh today we have uh Steven Zwart as our guest. Welcome Stephen. Thank you, Mark. Um you have been within uh Stammy Carbon of Maire for a very long time. Um just talked uh slightly ahead of our uh recording. You started in 1995 at the time for it for DSM, uh Dutch state mines at the time. Um worked in Stammy Carbon for uh four years, then Stammy Carbon got acquired by MIRE and now part of the the NextCam uh business line of MIRE, the sustainable technology solutions. Um, you have a background in uh chemical technology, right? Uh, and currently working as uh uh licensing vice president for urea, nitrates, and ammonia, so quite a lot. Um welcome.

SPEAKER_02 1:10

Thank you again.

SPEAKER_01 1:11

Uh and today we're going to talk uh about the uh ammonia. Um, I think a previous uh podcast we talked about with with Christina on hydrogen uh as a that's a chemical, uh chemically proceeding in the process uh most ammonia production. Um so um yeah, I'm really curious to see. And next, Cam says we we enable the energy transition. How does ammonia fit in that?

SPEAKER_02 1:36

Yeah, ammonia is uh fascinating because um, where we come from traditionally, as a fertilizer licensor, of course, we have always seen ammonia in the vicinity as a feedstock of our traditional portfolio of uh derivative fertilizer technologies. Uh, the interesting, the fascinating thing of ammonia is that it opens up also new business opportunities for us because, as you probably know, ammonia is not solely used as a fertilizer input but also as an energy carrier or an alternative energy carrier. And particularly in these days of energy transition and trying to cut ourselves lost from from the full uh yeah, the fossil fuels, uh ammonia comes into play. So, while we initially started actually in uh engaging in ammonia with a fertilizer perspective, um yeah, we now also see that it opens up also popular uh the opportunity for us to serve other industries, the uh energy industries.

SPEAKER_01 2:27

Okay. And if you talk about energy industries, do you are you talking about, let's say, providing input for power plants or what type of of applications are you are you thinking about?

SPEAKER_02 2:38

Yeah, it it can be very diverse. Um you can uh I mean ammonia is also a fuel, you can use it as a fuel to drive engines, for instance, but indeed uh electricity, so power generation. Um ammonia is uh an energy carrier that you can burn, um, or you can use it also as a chemical component, as a chemical building block for other uh other products. Again, not only uh fertilizers. So basically, you have fertilizers as a chemical, but there are also other chemical uh things that you can think of. Um, but indeed energy. And energy is big, as we know. Um, oil and gas industry is big. Um, and the more we cut ourselves and the quicker we cut our cells loss uh loose from uh oil and gas, um, the quicker we will see also ammonia grow, even to volumes that um drive actually the volumes of ammonia that are currently used for fertilizers. Oh, okay. And so, again, that's for power generation, electricity generation, electricity as an input for again many diverse derivatives, but also as uh a fuel, um also as a denox agent, um, for instance, um, to um uh yeah to to combat air pollution.

SPEAKER_01 3:43

Yeah, because NOX is a highly intense uh greenhouse gas.

SPEAKER_02 3:47

It is, it is indeed. Challenge is actually also to prioritize what is needed most at the moment because there's such a wide array of opportunities.

SPEAKER_01 3:54

Yeah. And if you say about uh ammonia being a let's say compound for further chemical processing, yeah. What's the end state of that route where what are typical products where uh let's say a consumer would find something that comes from an ammonia plant?

SPEAKER_02 4:11

Well, ammonia is a building block for many chemicals. Any chemical that needs a nitrogen component in a fixed form uh can use ammonia. So ammonia is widely uh used. For instance, uh, the site that I started my career here in the neighborhood in Camelot the uh half of the facilities there was relying on ammonia as an input, uh, not only for fertilizers but also for melamine, for caprolactam, for acrylic uh acrylon nitrile, for instance, so fiber intermediates. Um, ammonia was also liquefied and sold as such, um, as a refrigerant. Um, yeah, so many things you can do.

SPEAKER_01 4:48

A lot of demand for ammonia. So, so in that case, the the the the business case of the of the technology should uh should be should be positive.

SPEAKER_02 4:57

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Absolutely. And and then um ideally, obviously, if that ammonia can be had um uh on a basis of renewable inputs. So if I say cutting yourself loose from oil and gas, that means uh staying away from uh carbon-containing fossil fuels and instead um start choosing uh renewable inputs and think of soda, think of wind, think of hydro. Um and um applying these renewable energy inputs uh you can generate electricity from hydrogen cells, yeah. And this hydrogen is defeat stock in combination with air, nitrogen from air to make ammonia. Yeah, so in that case you would have um carbon-free ammonia generated, sugarine, and uh yeah, sustainable ammonia, if you will.

SPEAKER_01 5:42

But hey, you talk about this um let's say the traditional in traditional ammonia industry uh is uh based on the oil and gas industry, so basically uh using fossil fuels to get to ammonia. That's probably on a very different scale, uh at least currently, compared to an electrolyzer approach. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 6:02

How do you see that transition? Excellent question because the reality is that we can do not get um from A to B overnight. Um there will be there are hybrid intermediate solutions, so there will be a gradual shift. Often um uh described um in terms of colors, uh so if we would consider the traditional um carbon-based or fossil fuel-based industry as grey, um, in the transition to green, which then stands from uh carbon-free, there are in-between uh options uh often referred to as blue, uh, which means that you um still rely on uh the traditional fossil fuels because the economics still today work better unless you uh put uh uh incentives in play, and we can elaborate perhaps a bit later uh on uh on this uh in the in the interview. Um but if you start with the fossil fuel still, but you would mitigate the uh environmental impact by capturing the carbon, uh sequester it, then it's already uh more sustainable than a traditional gray. So we would not no longer call it gray, we would start calling it blue because already you mitigated the environmental environmental uh impact caused by CO2 emissions and greenhouse effects. Um what we currently see at this time is that uh in the energy transition, most of these projects that move away from gray are blue rather than green. Indeed, you mentioned scale. Um the economical viability for truly green processes uh tend to be smaller scale.

SPEAKER_01 7:33

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 7:34

Um considering the enormous demand that the ammonia already uh that we already have for ammonia, all these green initiatives together could not make up for the enormous demand for ammonia, and certainly not if that ammonia is no longer solidescent for the fertilizer industry. So, talking about volumes and talking about economical viability these days, uh many of the traditional grey uh ammonia plants have now turned into blue plants, or many of these plants built today are built as blue rather than green.

SPEAKER_01 8:03

Okay. And do you do you have um let's say reference projects all already in this this blue era?

SPEAKER_02 8:10

Um yeah, I I would say most ammonia plants that uh are being built these days have some blue component. Again, within the uh uh array of blue solutions, you can be light blue or dark blue if you will. Yeah. Um you it depends on how much uh money you want to spend, and also perhaps against the backdrop of a drop of incentives do you have? Do you have a client paying a premium for your ammonia then you're willing for for your blue ammonia, then you're willing to spend more. But the the measures to which you um uh introduce uh solutions also determine to what extent you actually uh capture and sequester the carbon.

SPEAKER_01 8:47

Do you see a difference in let's say a region? Say you're uh sitting in front of a world map. I can imagine that the different regions have different incentives, different availability. Indeed? Availability of of m more or less uh green energy?

SPEAKER_02 9:00

Yes, uh indeed, that's true. Good question. Um and I think it also relates a lot to the nature of incentives that are put into play. Um and also uh perhaps to uh the local situation as to the availability of feedstock. Obviously, if you are in the need of ammonia in an area where you are do not have the abundant uh reserves of uh traditional resources, then you logically lean towards green uh much more quickly. However, if there is an abundance of uh affordable fossil fuel feedstocks, gas or oil, uh yet you want to collect a premium moving away from gray to blue, you go for blue. Or perhaps if you get um uh incentives off um uh by the government uh government on uh saving CO two emissions, um yeah, then you tend to much towards uh more towards blue. What we currently see is that if you move west in the world, in North America and America, you see blue prevail. Okay. Um it's a bit of a mixed back in Europe. Um if you move to east to India, um you see um that green prevails, and also uh unless the ammonia stays gray in uh China, it also turns to be green rather than blue in the in-between solution. So moving from west to east, I think I would say currently you see more blue prevailing in the west and green prevailing in the uh in the east.

SPEAKER_01 10:26

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 10:26

But the blue volumes are bigger.

SPEAKER_01 10:28

Yeah, of course, of course it's easier because it's fossil based and you it's uh scalable faster.

SPEAKER_02 10:33

Yeah, and now I should say moving west to east, I forgot to mention Middle East, but that also uh leans more blue than green. Okay. Not as to say that you don't see green in the blue places or blue in the green places.

SPEAKER_01 10:46

Let's say the the the source or the the the intended use, blue versus green or gray versus green, does that make a difference already on scale? But also does that have an impact on technology, or is it the same thing but just have an impact on technology indeed?

SPEAKER_02 11:01

Um let me give you uh an example, for instance. Because uh we mentioned scale, what we see now is that um I said uh green ammonia plants tend to be smaller, the viable ones. Also, big capacities have been announced, but they have more troubles to uh materialize to but green being built tends to be smaller. So we have different uh schemes for ammonia synthesis, and usually we refer to it as medium pressure or high pressure synthesis. In the high pressure synthesis, uh we have the benefit of uh low KPEX, limited amount of equipment. Okay, that's the small size. And that's a small size. And um but you max out on particular limitations of availability of types of uh equipment, for instance, uh high pressure technology, you need to have high pressure compressors and they max out on a particular capacity. Now, you could not use them for higher capacities, and hence you would not like to use them for blue plants, but you would use them for green plants. So we see in the green plants that our high pressure technology prevails. Well, going to blue, the capacities are bigger, and then you compromise on the pressure in our sin loop, ammonia sin loop, and then you go to medium pressure, um, and then you get a different uh technology solution.

SPEAKER_01 12:14

Okay, so then let's say the the the small scale ammonia to to start with with that. Is there a is there a a max and also a minimum because I could also imagine if I have soda available and have everybody's got air, I can I can put an ammonia plant in the middle of a uh a farmer's field and make my own local ammonia. But then of course, scale probably is too big, or what's the what's the minimum?

SPEAKER_02 12:39

Yeah, well, no, there I mean I don't think we have uh um well of course there's always a minimum threshold of s uh to some extent, but uh it's interesting. Um if you would think of self-sufficiency uh localize in localized production, then I think for capacities as low as fifty ton per day, more than that one single farm probably needs, but in the immediate vicinity you could think that for local area it will be will be good. Yeah, so 50 uh green is nice for localized production uh based on renewable inputs, also in places where the conventional fossil fuels are not there. So you can do that economically viable viably, I would say from 50 ton onwards.

SPEAKER_01 13:17

Okay. And what's is there a max you say that the compressor size is one of the limiting things?

SPEAKER_02 13:21

And on the on the on the other side indeed, uh currently, but obviously we always like as you know, push for the limits. But currently we would say around six hundred ton uh per day. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 13:30

Okay. And then the uh you mentioned the medium pressure technology, just the the the large capacity. Is there an overlap or does that start at six hundred?

SPEAKER_02 13:38

No, there's there's some overlap. You can uh even go actually for the medium pressure, you can also go very small. That's very small capacities, actually. That's uh not the issue. Um it's just more that the high pressure technology has particular advantages in terms of capex, which is why we would advocate looking at that uh for the smaller capacities. But medium pressure can cover the entire range, you could say. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 14:01

And then is there uh is there a max to that?

SPEAKER_02 14:04

On medium pressure? Yes. Um again, we push the the boundaries. Um as probably uh the the those who are well informed uh about ammonia technology, uh there's has been a history of pushing that boundary as to uh what maximum capacity you can build for. Uh currently we are very comfortable to uh build ammonia plants for around 3,500 tons per day.

SPEAKER_01 14:25

Okay. But as you say, uh that's um times times will be changing.

SPEAKER_02 14:28

If you if we have this podcast in ten years from now, you will hear different numbers. Yeah, yeah, of course.

SPEAKER_01 14:32

Yeah. Okay. Um and then um you say the the KPEx, uh the investment types of equipment is a bit different. Can you uh explain that a bit more in depth?

SPEAKER_02 14:41

Yeah, what can I say about uh I mean it's the same ammonia, obviously to come that comes out of it, but you uh you can you you you you may use the different uh um uh catalysts. Also, the conversion rates are different, the conditions under which you have the conversion from hydrogen hydrogen to ammonia are different. Recycle loops are going to be different accordingly, ancillary equipment will be different. Okay. In the end, you need more um uh yeah, somewhat more on the medium pressure side than on the high pressure side. Um, and then again, we're talking about the ammonia synthesis. But if you talk about an ammonia plant, the ammonia synthesis that we talk out about is only the back end of the plant. The front end, in a conventional way, is the production of hydrogen based on fossil fuels based on reforming. While for truly green plants, the hydrogen does not come from that large front end. It's it's it's just uh from electrolysis. Yeah. So the front end looks uh different then. So if you have a small skill ammonia plant and you have an electrolyzer and you have a lean um high pressure ammonia syndalop with minimum number of equipment, yeah, then in KPEX for that skill is very advantageous. Yeah, yeah. So it it's not and if you would do this in a conventional way with all the reforming front end, whether this is an SMR or an CPO or an ATR, and maybe we was to discuss that also uh a bit further down in this podcast, yeah, then you have a lot of front end equipment that you need to add because you're starting with fossil fuels.

SPEAKER_01 16:07

Yeah. Yeah, so it's not so much um looking at this as a it's a single um chemical plant being operated or built, but it's need what's what's up front, but also what comes after the ammonia. So if you if you use the ammonia uh directly on the land as a fertilizer, which is not very common, but it does happen.

SPEAKER_03 16:29

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 16:29

Um if you look at downstream, hey, uh in your introduction, I said you're uh vice president also for urea and nitrates. Yeah, uh that that's where I started my career. Yeah, so but but it also uh it it already indicates being this in in a single person that it that's in that it's somehow linked together.

SPEAKER_02 16:49

Yes.

SPEAKER_01 16:50

How does that work and specifically how does the integration work if I have an ammonia uh plant, high pressure or medium pressure, how do I move onwards to a next technology? Are those really separate plants with just a a pipeliner or is there some form of integration?

SPEAKER_02 17:05

No, there is uh great uh integration potential, and that's also why it is good to have all these technologies in the in the basket of one licensor that uh next can miss. Okay. Because then you're well at home in all these diverse technologies and you can put the integration of these technologies to the max. Now let's let's first um elaborate perhaps a bit on what are the ammonia derivative technologies or plants that you can think of. You see, ammonia as a carrier, as we mentioned, of nitrogen, and uh logically if you have fertilizers that you want to produce uh that contain that nitrogen as the primary nutrients that crops need, then it's the nitrogen from the ammonia that is needed to that needs to be built into that fertilizer, that nitrogen-containing fertilizers. Typically, then we're talking about urea, we're talking about uh ammonium nitrate. Uh we're talking perhaps about uh a blend of both, uh urea and ammonia nitrate solutions, because then you get the liquid uh fertilizers. And these are amongst the most popular and most used fertilizers in the world. Now, these urea um and ammonium nitrate plants and these UEM plants need to have ammonia as an input, as a feedstock for these plants. Now, so that's on the process side. You can already imagine that um if you need to prepare ammonia in a liquid form that needs to be sent away overseas to uh be end up somewhere else to be used, that you did need to process ammonia into a form that you can export it. Well, if you have that uh plant that uses that ammonia as an input in the immediate vicinity of of the ammonia plant, you may not need to you can skip a few process steps because the ammonia in which it comes from the plant is directly suitable to be used in the uh downstream plant. Okay. So you can save yourself some equipment already on the process side. Um but I think the biggest uh integration you would have is not so much on the ammonia and the fertilizers process side, but more on the utility side. And then I'm talking about steam and cooling water, um electricity, because plants use all these utilities or uh produce these utilities. So if each of these plants has a balance between inputs and outputs in terms of steam and electricity and and and and water, and suppose one plant has too much of it and can yield it while the other plant needs it, then you can imagine how you can integrate also on a utility side. And they represent OPEX. So the cost of operations, the cost of utilities goes down in integrated complexes. Okay. So what you will see is that if you would ask us for a proposition uh uh including all these technologies, usually the uh guarantees that we can give uh for utilities, uh steam consumption, uh electricity consumption, go down, leveraging the integration.

SPEAKER_01 19:51

Okay, and then the advantage deeper understanding of this, but I can imagine that if I um design multiple plants in a row that I can uh fit them together in a smarter way, I can uh decrease the size of the piping, decrease therefore the the loss of energy during transit, all those type of absolutely okay.

SPEAKER_02 20:12

Yeah, we're talking still about fairly commoditized products, fertilizers, ammonia. Um and there are many producers. And not everybody, not all of these producers are benefiting from huge margins. So uh every time a new plant is being built, the owner wants to make sure that he can operate that plant in a very competitive way. Yeah, it's a bit so much. So it's all about wool represents uh the lowest KPEx and lowest OPEX uh solution.

SPEAKER_01 20:43

Okay. Are there are there uh because Nextcamer has got this whole portfolio of technologies from from electrolysis, from hydrogen, but also the downstream of the ammonia, the the urea, the urea ammonium nitrates. Are there let's say reference projects that uh use this full integration?

SPEAKER_02 21:04

Uh yes, we uh we have projects. Uh, you need to be uh careful in mentioning names again. Okay. But we have several projects where you see us actually uh bring the uh complete line of ammonia and we have these references for both both blue and green.

SPEAKER_03 21:20

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 21:20

Uh so starting from either uh uh natural gas and then reforming to hydrogen and then to ammonia synthesis and then to these derivative fertilizers, in some cases even UEN and uh urea granules and DEF as a urea solution as a Ninox agent and nitrates together in the same project. Um we have these um so on a on a blue scale based on natural gas, but also on a on a on a green scale based starting with electrolysis.

SPEAKER_03 21:47

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 21:48

Generally speaking, if you talk about um improved technology concepts, it also takes the market to adopt these. Markets can be conservative, particularly. In the chemical industry that we speak about, and uh um yeah, who wants to be the first guinea pig trying out something new? So um concepts already have existed in our heads for a while before you found the first customer who is willing to introduce it.

SPEAKER_03 22:18

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 22:19

Um, once it is introduced, then uh and you can demonstrate it that that uh the novel technology is in operation, has been put in operation, then it brings a lot of comfort to those who come and see that plant and see, okay, we see it's proven. So now we uh we we cross the bridge as well.

SPEAKER_01 22:36

So it's not just an energy transition, it's also an integration transition.

SPEAKER_02 22:40

It's um yeah, it's um as always with chemicals uh with the chemical industry, um it's always also a transition of integration. Um scalability of technologies is traditionally uh uh has always been there. Economy of scale. We can build bigger than the 3500 uh that I say we can think of higher capacities. Um and if you look at the history of capacities of fertilizer plants back in the 60s, the largest capacities were just a fraction of what you see today. Yeah, so we think ahead in our technology and uh utility uh consumption development in OPEX and CapEx reduction, so there's a lot that you can uh expect to improve further.

SPEAKER_01 23:24

Yeah, and to what extent do you expect or need regulators or incentives or uh in order to stimulate that?

SPEAKER_02 23:33

Yeah. Well, I'm grateful for the question again because uh I can and I I I would bring up these uh these these topics anyway. Um we just covered already that blue prevails over green still. Uh that has everything to do with that. Um because uh the nasty thing perhaps with fossil fuels is that I mean they're they're detrimental for the environment, uh for the environment, it's not truly sustainable, but economically they're still the best option in many cases.

SPEAKER_03 24:00

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 24:00

Um and we can't help ourselves. Well, we dream green and we care of the sustainability about the sustainability of the world. We also care about the money that stays in our pockets. Um so if you indeed uh produce ammonia uh at a cost that is much higher than the market is willing to pay, what are you doing? So you need you need to have uh uh uh incentives into play. Incentives can go in different ways. You can penalize uh CO2 emissions, for instance, and um you can you save your if you can save yourself CO2 emissions by investing something extra in carbon capture, then it is offset by what you save and penalties. That's one way. It's a model that prevails a lot, uh uh, for instance, in in Europe. But you can also uh set incentives, that you guarantee that your input prices are not higher than a particular price. You can give tax benefits, for instance, or you can as an authority say, okay, um if your hydrogen uh that comes from an electrolyzer is going to exceed in cost above a particular threshold, we'll step in because we care for you to produce uh in a greener or perhaps in a bluer way than traditionally. Uh but if it that takes I mean, if it takes that we need to help you in in in facilitating uh price maxes on say the hydrogen and the cost that you produce that, or we need to facilitate you in uh getting tax benefits if you uh reduce on your CO2 emissions, then actually you're rewarding actually, uh instead of penalizing CO2 emissions, you're rewarding actually that you're doing something uh in reducing the carbon uh burden. Um we've seen that um perhaps a bit more in the recent past in the in North America, but still some of that still prevails in North America. Uh so there's still carbon incentives in place, not in a penalizing way, but actually in an um in a kind of a subsidized way, if you will.

SPEAKER_03 26:01

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 26:02

Then there's another way. Um off-takers may be willing to pay a premium uh in return for a low carbon footprint on the ammonia or on the derivative the ammonia derivative fertilizers. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So for instance, we have a uh green ammonia product with green derivative fertilizers from green ammonia, so green uh fertilizers. There are stakeholders in that project that are in there for that reason. Um there have shareholders that expect the company in which they have shares to do something about the environment.

SPEAKER_03 26:39

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 26:40

So as a company to please your shareholders to show that you care about sustainability, you're willing to pay a premium for green ammonia or green derivative fertilizers because you know that your shareholders expect you to do so.

SPEAKER_01 26:55

Does that if if I think like a consumer, right? So let's say if I buy a loaf of bread, if I would compare the grey ammonia versus a green ammonia all the way on the other side of the value chain, how much more or less expensive uh becomes that loaf of bread if it's green versus gray? Is that is that is it cents or is it like tenths of cents, or uh do you have any idea of the of the range?

SPEAKER_02 27:21

Again, uh it's a snapshot in time because uh again, if you ask me uh the same question next year or in five years from now, you get a different answer. The trend is that green ammonia prices have come down. And uh equipped with these incentives that we just covered, you see already that uh in some places parity is reached. We've seen exciting examples in India where the levelized cost uh of ammonia has now come at the level or very close to conventionally produced ammonia. Okay. And then it's that is already happening.

SPEAKER_01 27:52

And then if it's let's say on a small scale, if if it's even under fifty uh megaton per day, then the amount of ammonia that ends up in my loaf of bread is of course very, very minimal. So it's maybe even a cent or less. That my loaf is more expensive.

SPEAKER_02 28:06

Is that a ask yourself how much are you willing to pay more for that loaf of bread, knowing that it is green? Probably you're willing to pay something uh somewhat more, uh, but not outrageously more. If you double that price, uh no, that that's probably not going to work. And that needs to be facilitated upstream in that entire value chain. So everybody needs to contribute. Now, shareholders that expect that from you, uh uh legislators that put the incentives in one way or another in place, they all come into play to reach uh this parity between uh yeah, decarbonized uh fertilizers. And not solely green, but also blue is um moving towards parity with grey-produced fertilizers.

SPEAKER_03 28:44

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 28:44

Let me give you another example. The energy market, uh, we we briefly touched it on it in the in the beginning. You see nations like Korea and Japan who have put incentives on the use of uh ammonia as a coal-firing agent in power plants.

SPEAKER_03 29:00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 29:01

Now they do the don't do this unlimited, uh, so they have a threshold put themselves on how much they want to uh facilitate of this. So the ammonia market, the ammonia production worldwide is much bigger than that they will consume subject to these incentives.

SPEAKER_01 29:17

Yes.

SPEAKER_02 29:17

So it's also a game of actually producers if they if they're seeking that premium for a particular volume, designed to invest in that or not, that they find these off takers.

SPEAKER_03 29:28

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 29:28

Yeah, so um, and what you see now is that uh you see potential investors, project developers, fight for these off takers that are willing to pay that premium. And then if that off taker is saturated, yeah, then it stops. And well, the world needs more ammonia than just that. So what you see is then that even one uh one producer may allocate additional budget uh to only part of his overall ammonia production because they only know that they only for that part of ammonia production they can get that premium.

SPEAKER_04 30:04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 30:04

So they may run blue plants next to grey plants.

SPEAKER_04 30:08

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 30:09

Or they may have boiled a blue plant uh today and next time because they want to grow with the market and with the market demand, the next one will be grey again.

SPEAKER_01 30:17

So, as a final uh thought, uh I think if you look at the the uh agreement made in Paris, uh, I think in 2018, but 2050, we're going to be net zero. If if if I would uh force you to make it to to put a guess, is it is it uh is is it feasible? And do you think we will get there?

SPEAKER_02 30:36

Um you're asking me some a very personal opinion. Yes. Uh and I I I I I I don't wish to be political. If you uh if you ask me truly, I think um the closer we get to that date, uh the more concerns I see uh getting hold of all of us. What I um find more comfort in is in the trend, because um inevitably this is going to happen. Um if you would plot actually um the um installed ammonia capacity, for instance, uh in the past few years and uh now and in the coming years, you see that the biggest part of ammonia production is still grey. But the incremental addition to what had already been installed, their green and ammonia and blue, and particularly blue, already plays a sizable role. So if you look at the overall installed capacity, it may be disappointing because what was built as gray still stays gray. But new capacity is uh a lot of that is already green and blue. Now, we may miss that goal, the Paris goal for 35, but by 2050, uh looks much better. Yeah. The line share will come from green and blue. Of course, uh uh if you look at projects uh that be have been announced for blue and for green, obviously you always see much many more announcements than that what becomes reality. Um but of all the blue projects we've seen announced, 10% of that has become reality. For green, that only has been two percent so far. Okay. Says something about the economical viability. Yep. So 10% conversion rate from announcement to reality or just two percent, that's a big difference. And this is tilting after 2035.

SPEAKER_01 32:19

But also, if the I think I think if that increases both for blue and green, uh then of course the environmental impact also becomes more and more significant. Yeah, I think that's uh covering a lot, uh Stephen. Yeah, uh, thank you for all your your insights so far. Do you have any any last uh comments on ammonia?

SPEAKER_02 32:37

I would like to tell to our customers that we have solutions of all kinds in grey, blue, and green, and any other color that you would wish for. I would like to refer to podcasts that you're also having with some of my engineering colleagues.

SPEAKER_01 32:48

Yeah, well, we've had the Stami Talks podcast in the past, but also on the on nextcam.com slash solutions people can find a lot more details on um on with different types of technologies that we have, also for ammonia, but also as part of the energy transition as a whole.

SPEAKER_02 33:04

Yeah, correct. And then finally, also as an integrated solution. Because it's not about only about ammonia, it's not only about fertilizers, but whatever feedstock you have to whatever kind of product you need, whether this is ammonia or any derivative fertilizers, we have the integrated solution for you. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 33:19

Thank you so much, Stephen. You're very well. Also, uh for our our listeners, uh, thanks for tuning in to this edition of next episode. Um, if you like this type of content, uh please subscribe and um listen into our next edition. Thank you. Thank you.