Democracy in Latin America: Reasons for Hope or Pessimism?

In this episode of Sustainable Latam, hosts Alberto Souviron, Andrew Thompson, and Julian Seydoux are joined by Gerardo Berthin, President of Freedom House, to discuss the findings of the Freedom in the World 2026 report. The conversation centers on the "growing shadow of autocracy" and a 20-year global decline in freedom, specifically examining the resilience of democracy across Latin America.

Gerardo provides a nuanced look at the region, highlighting Bolivia as a new bright spot of freedom while expressing concern over the institutional backsliding in El Salvador and the rise of "unmanageable" organized crime in countries such as Mexico, Peru, and Ecuador. The episode also dives into the "post-truth" political discourse surrounding crime rates, the impact of generative AI on democratic truth, and the complex path forward for a post-Maduro Venezuela.

Production: Sustainable LatAm

Presenters 

• Andrew Thompson - International journalist & political-risk analyst with deep LatAm coverage (OBG, EIU, Latin News; ex-Head BBC Learning English).
• Alberto Souviron - International journalist and digital comms leader for EM investors; ex BBC/Newsweek/Lloyd’s Register. 
• Julian Seydoux - AI-driven finance entrepreneur (FirmView AI, Fast Audit AI); ex-Moody’s/Consilium; cross-border EM & LatAm focus. 

Transcript

Introduction

Alberto 0:18

Welcome everybody to another episode of Sustainable Latam, a podcast that focuses on the trends in political changes or political trends in the region, economic and social changes and trends in the region. With me today, as always, I have Julianne Seitou and Andrew Thompson, my co-presenters. And we have a very special guest, Gerardo Bertin, president of Freedom House. Gerardo, welcome to our podcast. Rather than doing a long introduction, because you have a long career and very successful career as a political analyst in various organizations, I would like you to introduce to our audience. Go ahead, please.

Gerardo 1:06

Well, thank you, Alberto, for inviting me to this uh important discussion and certainly happy to also engage with Juliana and Andrew. I am a political scientist by academic background, and my career has actually taken me to work in over 50 countries around the world. I worked for the UN for a number of years, working for partners of the U.S. government to implement programs abroad. Certainly one area of specialty that I've acquired is the so-called democratic governance, which is certainly a concept that now we're hearing more and more. And so I'm very happy to be with you. I have uh a couple of decades of work behind me, and I'm very happy to join this conversation about democratic governance in the world, what we're seeing now. Yeah.

Alberto 1:55

Thank you, Gerardo. Let's begin on the business. Uh, one thing Freedom House has just published its out-of-the-oven hits, freedom reports from 2026 to 2025. Really interesting because you called uh the growing shadow of autocracy and says after 20 years, how freedom has been uh going back all across the world. But when we see the map of the region, uh the freedom in the world, you have a really interesting map. I was mentioned near you before. It's really interesting to see that on the left we have America, almost everything green, with a few yellows that is partially free, and a couple of purples that are not free countries, which we know the usual ones basically going around there. But on the right is purple is probably what we saw the most uh impacting, especially in Africa and and Asia. But when we go to the Americas, I will ask you is this green really a solid green or risks are around taking all of this? Basically, how resilient is democracy in uh Latin America?

The 2026 Freedom in the World Report

Mapping the Americas: Bright Spots and Setbacks

The Decline of El Salvador

Gerardo 3:16

No, in fact, yes. Yesterday we released our Freedom in the World report. We have been doing this since 1973 as an organization. And for those of your audience who are not familiar, this particular metrics is an aggregate analysis of 25 indicators that look at political rights and civil liberties as described in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. So our lens basically to look at freedom in the world is related to the conditions that the people have actually to be free. In that sense, basically, we looked at rights to freely participate in elections, liberties related to freedom of expression, freedom of the of the press, and so forth and so on. So that just as a background, we use a scale of zero to 100, where zero is not free and 100 is is free. And we then categorize the countries into three buckets of the free countries, which in the map, as you mentioned, are green, yellow are the partial, partially free countries, and purple are the not free countries. And uh in this particular year, we also had an opportunity to look back 20 years. It is in that sense, it's one of the legacy reports that kind of we did the same thing 10 years ago, now 20 years ago. It gives us the opportunity to see uh retroactively what's what has happened because sometimes the data that we publish on a yearly basis may not be able to give you a full picture of what's going on. Just to be clear, we are measuring our analysis based on data from January to December of 2025. So it does not include anything that has happened basically the first three months of 2026. So it is more than a video, as I said, it is it is a photograph, a snapshot basically of what has happened in 2025. And uh I think you know, just bringing a little bit the larger lens of what we found is that um, you know, this uh year we continue to see that uh democracy as we measure it has declined for the 20th consecutive year. Uh that means that there are more countries in our index that have declined in terms of their political rights and civil liberties than have improved. To be exact, 54 countries of the and territories of the 208 that we look at have actually declined, where only 35 register some improvements. And generally speaking, you know, the reasons for that decline, I think we focus on maybe three uh particular issues, and then we can bring it to the uh Americas. Um, first of all, military coups are back in one way or another, particularly in places like Africa. Uh, that's number one. Number two, uh, violence against uh peaceful protesters is another area where we we highlight as one of the elements that is driving this decline. And last but not least is basically the efforts to weaken constitutional safeguards, uh is another one of the issues. And so uh with that in mind, we look at Latin America as part of a cohort of 35 countries, which we looked at the Western Hemisphere and Americas. So that includes Canada, it includes the United States, it also includes the non-Spanish speaking islands of the Caribbean. So, in that context, according to our data, Latin America continues to be mostly a free region where 55% of its population actually continue to live in free, uh, free spaces. But certainly, when we look back 20 years ago, for example, in 2005, only two countries were net free 20 years ago. You can guess which they are one is Cuba and the other one is Haiti. Today, basically, we had to add two additional countries, Venezuela and Nicaragua. So we have now four countries that are net free, and we can talk about the reasons why. And on the good side, let's say, or kind of the the more gray side, certainly this year, the U.S. score declined at three points actually in our index. Um, this is a trend that has been happening already for the past 15 years. This decline actually has been seen both in under the Democrat administrations as well as Republican administrations. And the bright spots basically this year in terms of the region, number one, Bolivia. Bolivia, for the first time, has become a free country in our index. And this is as a result of not only a peaceful transfer of power due to the relatively free elections, and certainly ending 20 years of single-party rule in Bolivia by Evo Morales' party de mas. And the other bright spot is Guatemala, who last year actually was the bright spot in our index. And even though it's still dealing with a lot of institutional issues, Guatemala has remained, there's no decline basically in its score. Another country that I would highlight that we are a bit concerned about is El Salvador. El Salvador has continued actually to decline in its index, as you know, over the past five years. It was a free country at one point, now it's a partially free country. And this is a result mainly of uh establishing a constitutional republic under a constant state of emergency. On the one hand, while Bukele actually has resolved the very important issue of uh gang crimes in their countries, uh it has done so at a human rights cost, not due process, violating certain constitutional rights in a sense so it is a country that has declined over 15 years the most in Latin America. I will say El Salvador, even though it continues to have construction.

Andrew 9:24

Forgive me for interrupting. I I have a sort of an overall question which in some ways repeats what you've just been telling us. I think some of your colleagues wrote an article for the Washington Post, in which they pointed out that according to their calculations and Freedom House's calculations, it's a free country for 21% of the world. I think the figure you had for Latin America was better. But my my sort of my question for you is how worried should we all be? Because you could say some years one country goes up, one country goes down, it all it all kind of balances out without much change. But from what I heard you say, it's actually been getting worse year on year. So it is a serious problem.

Gerardo 10:10

Indeed. And certainly my colleague Jamie Fly, the CEO of Freedom House and JANA, the director of research, wrote that piece. Indeed, it is once you start disaggregating, and that's why I wanted to understand in terms of the Americas, what is in that bucket, right? Once you take the English-speaking Caribbean nations, for example, and maybe you isolate Canada, uh, you isolate the United States, the region becomes uh a little bit less optimistic in terms of its freedom. Certainly, big countries like Brazil, for example, even though it continues to be free over the last 20 years, their score uh has declined. And we know we have an in very important event coming in Brazil later in October and November, the elections. Other countries that are uh you know oscillating, for example, Peru is a good case. Peru actually oscillated from free to uh uh not free over the last 20 years many times, and that has to do precisely because of this inestability that it has in holding presidents. It has eight presidents in 10 years, and they also have an election coming up in April. Colombia is another country that actually has uh you know oscillated from free to uh partially free, and also it so happened that uh very soon there's gonna be a very important election in Colombia as well. But also, there are countries in our region that have sustained their free status for a number of years. And I want to point out even though they're not perfect systems, Chile is one of the countries that actually is in the list. Costa Rica is another country that's in the list, Panama is another country that's on the list. Uruguay is probably another one in that list. So when you begin to disaggregate, you can see, as Alberto was saying, a little bit of both, a little bit of mixes, right? And certainly the countries seem to be moving in some sort of cycle to a different type of political regimes. And I forgot to mention, another country that is concerning that borders the United States is Mexico, which is a country actually that particularly over the years, not only has it sustained as partially free, but the last election, 2024, for president and a national election was the most violent in Mexico and its history. And so indeed, there are nuances that we need to start analyzing, and that's why it's one thing to look at with the lens of the aggregation. But once you start disaggregating, you begin to notice these other uh concerning trends.

The "Unmanageable" Threat: Organized Crime

Alberto 12:42

Let me jump in there, uh Gerardo. As you're right to say you you cannot see Latin America like one lens, it's a prison with different angles to look at it. And I think that reflects also when we're talking about democracy or freedom around. But there is a constant that is really threatening the region in general, and in countries that are solidly democratic, according to Freedom House, like Costa Rica, for example, are beginning to suffer the problem of uh drug violence or gang violence going around that. And that is reflecting also in elections in several countries, is the main worry in many. And that in a way is also threatening democracies in the region, even worse-orted democracies. I know that uh that is a good uh photography of 2025, but since 2026 it went trying to do on video. The main threat, can we say, to or one of the main threats to democracy in the region is the drug violence or gang violence, organized crime? Right.

Gerardo 13:52

No, that's uh once you start looking at what is affecting specifically the you know the the scores in the Americas, definitely the role of organized crime is is probably a top top of mind. Uh I was recently in a conference organized by the Forum 2000 in Bolivia a week ago, and that was one of the main topics of discussion, and not only as related to Mexico, which actually there's some parts of the country that have been dominated by non-state actors, including organized crime. Ecuador is another country that comes into mind. You might remember in the elections this being a very important topic. Certainly Bolivia, the day that I was there, they captured one of the most important drug kingpings they were looking for because they had some sort of allegations that the previous government was protecting him to do whatever he was doing. But also, I think this is spilling over other countries. I mean, for example, you probably read in the news the new president of Chile, for example, is beginning to construct a protection barrier in its border because the issue has become actually unmanageable. Peru is another country. When you go to the Amazon region of Peru, which I had a chance to visit a couple of times, the influence basically of organized crime and other illicit products is impressive and how they influence particularly weak local governments. For the citizens to a certain extent, and that is one weakness basically of the majority of the systems in the region, it doesn't matter who provides services or protection. When the state is absent, they don't care basically who is protecting actually them. And in many cases, at the local level, that protection comes from non-state actors in a way to uh uh use that as a leverage for them to protect them when they are actually being chased, right? So, but certainly the issue of organized crime and international and regional, let's say, issues related to this is important. I mean, that was one of the arguments that you know was used to bring uh Maduro to the United States, the former president of Venezuela. And so, but certainly that is one important issue. And the other one I would say is the fact that I think from the perspective of the citizen, again, what they want is solutions, horizon, uh, opportunities, and uh they're seeing that maybe their democratic systems right now are not providing that, and therefore maybe uh autocratic alternatives become an aspiration for them to see if they can do better. I would say the Americas uh is a variety of systems, even though uh most of them speak Spanish or Portuguese, each system has its own dynamic now. And what I would say is there has not been a very concerted effort on the part of their governments to strengthen democracy. So what we see from the outside as being called democracy has a lot of weaknesses. Uh certainly Bolivia is a case in mind in which basically over the past 20 years, not only have they managed to lose economic advantages that they had before, but uh institutionally it is a country that is much more weaker now as a result of not you know making any efforts to strengthen.

Andrew 17:17

Could we talk a little bit about freedom and economic development? I understand that you've argued that democratic checks and balances are actually good for business rather than something that business doesn't want to waste its time on. How do you see that working?

Gerardo 17:35

Yeah. Yeah, even though our index, let's say, does not look at specifically economic indicators. I think, and I wrote an article actually, which is uh published by Freedom House, in which the rule of law in this case, so indicators related to the rule of law actually create opportunities for business. Businesses, as you know, want certainty. They want to make sure that their investment is going to have some sort of a return. And that affects to a certain extent the level of employment and so forth and so on. Certainly, when you do correlations with other indicators that measure prosperity, there is a strong correlation between freedom and prosperity and wealth. Even happiness, I would say. Of course, Freedom Houses report as well. But we did a little bit of a regression analysis, and in you know, our 25 top countries of the index of freedom are also some of the most prosperous and happy countries in the in the in the world. So there is a correlation there. The causalities might vary from country to country, but certainly one discussion because I want to bring Bolivia because that's recently uh something that has happened. Business people are waiting, for example, for a new law, a new constitutional law that guarantees that their investments are secured. That hasn't happened yet because and and they're beginning to make decisions on the basis of how you know how safe their investments will be. And everybody's ready to invest. The point is basically is that guarantee? Are there laws? How about the justice? Independence of the justice system is another measurement that we actually analyze. And there is a correlation between having an independent justice system versus one that is not. Most free countries do have an independent judicial system. And the other one to me that that's important in that even though it's not plainly economic, and all of you will understand because you're in the business of being a journalist, it is the issue of an of in an independent media, right? From whatever angle you can actually take, if that is being controlled, which has been one of the factors of decline, for example, of Venezuela, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and other countries, if that is not there, then people don't have sufficient information to actually make economic decisions for themselves.

Venezuela’s "Theoretical" Transition

Andrew 20:02

I wanted to throw in to this bit of the discussion the case of Venezuela, whereas you know, as everyone knows, the government was decapitated with the removal of Nicolás Maduro. But I was particularly interested that the Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, said the plan for the future in Venezuela was to stabilize the economy and then at a later date think about liberalizing the political system and introducing democracy. And if I'm not wrong, one of the chief executives of the US oil companies said that as it currently is, the state is currently in, Venezuela is uninvestable. So maybe we should be drawing the opposite conclusion to Marco Rubio and saying the most important thing as you exit a dictatorial situation is to have a political agreement, to have um a restoration of democracy which will enable future economic development.

Gerardo 21:03

Right. No, that's a good point. I think for the perspective of, let's say, of the US government, they have laid down a very simple plan sequence in a way that starts with stabilizing the country, providing some sort of economic incentives, and then the last part, the result of all of this in that model, in that approach, is a complete transition to democracy. Now that is uh theoretical to a certain extent, uh, because uh Venezuela is a very complex country politically. It has actually, interestingly, a very similar constitution as the United States. It's a federal, it's one of the four federations in Latin America, along with Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico. And uh certainly it's a very centralized and presidential system as well, in a way that it runs, even though it's a federation, it runs top down as opposed to bottom up. And you know, it As much as Maduro was a symbol of that repression that started with Chavez, I think most of the machinery of repression has remained still, even though they are shedding parts of it. For example, the Attorney General is being dismissed a couple of days ago. There was the announcement that the commander of the General Armed Forces is gonna be replaced. The obus person also was replaced. And so they're trying to go one by one. And here is one fact that will be important to fulfill a list of part of the uh of the transition, which is now going to be very uh very simple, which is elections, right? Even though there were elections in uh 2024 in which the majority of Venezuelans expressed dissatisfaction with what was going on back then and voted for change, I think they're gonna have to have a different election in a way that now it's much more legitimate in a sense, and it could lead to uh a negotiated transition. And I think behind the scenes, that is what they're debating. When can these elections be hold or be held? I understand that there is some sort of constitutional interpretation that that needs to happen soon, meaning before the the end of the year. And so that is going to be important because ultimately when you generate the expectation of change and people are not seeing the change, then they begin to be concerned. And that if that gap continues to actually uh to grow, then there's going to be desperation. Now, the other issue that is not being resolved is uh the issue of political prisoners. Uh, there is some sort of an amnesty law that is being discussed in in Venezuela. I don't know if you recall, but Venezuela had one of the most impressive uh systems of jails, including the uh the elicoidio. And um it's important basically to you know to erase that that historical memory of the minds of the people for them to also start feeling change, because right now the only thing that they felt is that Maduro is no longer in power, but nothing else has changed.

Alberto 24:10

I will jump in there. I will be a little bit controversial in saying something something that with Andrew and Julian, especially with with Julian, sometimes we we say looks like for the US democracy is not anymore a factor when when when it's trying to move around, which can have a series of implications for for the region. I mentioned this because uh listening to uh uh Secretary Ru Rubio about Venezuela, but also Cuba. Cuba has been in the news recently, and we say we can expect probably a change in Cuba, but it's going to be in favor of democracy, or what we are seeing is literally the US playing uh the imperial game, just look for the resources going around that, and that uh at the end could go against all the freedom that probably the region already has or trying to achieve.

Gerardo 25:02

No, it's it's it's interesting. I mean, you know, from the perspective of the US, I think the framing is certainly a national security, actually, however you want to understand that. But also, I think this is an opportunity probably for Latin America leadership to emerge. And certainly that leadership has been absent for the past decade. And by leadership, I mean basically taking the lead, making sure that uh there is a clear understanding of within the respect of what the definitions of democracy is, what is it that they believe, right? And I think over the past uh decade as well, there has been a little bit of hesitation of very important actors in the region. Mexico is one, Brazil is another one that have a lot of weight on the rest of the region, in which there is hesitation. I mean, certainly the government of Mexico has not been very vocal about recognizing the change that's going on. Not even Maria Corina Machados and Edbundo Gonzalez's victory was recognized by the Mexican government, right? Lula has played a very uh interesting role because at the same time he's trying to be important in a much more global and regional spaces, uh, such as the BRICS, for example. So I would say it's a combination of elements, not only the US, but also maybe other leaders around the area trying to understand that for the region, uh it doesn't matter how you ultimately develop your own democracy, it is important to have freedoms and uh uh rights and liberties in a way that basically people can, you know, can feel safer and they can take decisions on that basis, right?

Julian 26:44

So I'm just jumping in. Wouldn't you agree when you say that at this present moment, you know, a lot of things are driven by the US, US action, interference, or whatever there is. And I just I just want you know, one of when I think about uh you know some of the things governance and some of the things you touched upon, all I can think of is that uh uh the US administration at some stage should try to repel the Anti-Bribery Act for you know the businesses. And for me that's that's a huge signal to everywhere. I so I understand the logic that was behind it uh uh to some extent from from the administration. Uh but of course when you know when you repel this, then that leads to potentially uh bribes, corruption all across and particularly in in Latin America, all across Latin America. And uh a couple of years ago myself and Alberto, I think was together with the School of Economics, uh had done a regression analysis on you know on linking the fiscal deficit with uh the rise of corruptions within uh within within each countries, and there was a high positive correlation uh there, which of course is uh happens when uh when when when the countries are weaker. But uh but it seems to me that uh in in this respect there is these you know there is a strong impulse, in a directional impulse going from the states to all across you know all across Latin America.

Gerardo 28:15

Right. No, that's very interesting. But also I think I will argue there is other poles of action or inaction in that dynamic, right? I mean, for example, the European Union, which has a lot of influence in Latin America, has not been also actively promoting more democratic reforms in the region, right? If you take country by country, I mean, you know, Spain, for example, is an example because of that bridge, cultural bridge that it has actually with, you know, with Spain. But there are other actors that are taking action that actually are contrarian to democratic values. You have China, you have Russia, you have Iran, uh, you have even North Korea in a sense, taking advantage of that vacuum in a way and trying to guide policies that seem appealing, right? At least at the beginning, but then the ticket, the the sticker shot, as they as they said, comes later, right? And that's not only in Latin America, this is also happening in in Africa, where easy money comes in without any strings attached, but then people think that this is a gift, but at the end it's actually a loan. And absolutely.

Julian 29:23

Yeah, but I mean, and and I think I think this is what I'm pointing out is that you seem to have a convergence between this between Russia, China, the way of doing things and the US, all coming at the same time to the to the to the to the ex to the continent.

Gerardo 29:38

There's one more there's one more more one more topic in the area of corruption that is very important. Latin America was the first continent in the world to actually have an inter-American convention against corruption signed in 1996 in all places in Venezuela. The Venezuelans actually were the ones who drove this particular convention, which became a model for Africa. And some would argue it became a model for the UN Convention against corruption. And uh this is, let's say, a tool that the Organization of American States has, you know, to not only do preventive things against corruption, but also enforce it. And certainly uh the last time I was in Venezuela actually was 2006, celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Inter-American Convention Against Corruption. Hugo Chavez was already in power, and certainly there was a big celebration, but it was reduced because people already knew that what was coming later was very important. I was going to actually reduce and weaken this instrument that had become actually a very impressive model for the rest of the world. And again, because you have all of these institutional loopholes and uh other actors like the organized crime and others take advantage of that. Certainly corruption becomes a very embedded activity. And really, in many cases, people argue solving problems that the state should solve, right? Medications, medical visits, in a sense, justice delivery in a sense. So indeed, I agree with you. It is a convergent convergence of elements in a way that basically it's been taken advantage of. But it's a combination of action on the one hand, explicit, but also inaction, or maybe some more underground activities we don't see that is generating the dynamics of of what we see now in the region. I think that's the same thing.

Alberto 31:31

Actually, is worrisome outlook that we're we're seeing. Even that that the region is probably positive in terms of freedoms, the threatens are big and has been growing quite a lot.

Gerardo 31:44

Yes, you're right. You're right. And and in a sense, we've seen that in our, at least in our index, the more you move towards the net free, it is more difficult to come back. It will take longer to come back. And also there's data, not ours in general, but there is a study that looks at what they call the U-turns, when countries actually make a turn from an autocratic regime to a democratic regime. And the result of that is mixed, meaning that sometimes it it just stays as a U-turn, and they never make the full turn. In other cases, there's a little bit of regression in a sense, right? But so I think then there's data to prove that as well, in a way that you can be free, but you still have actually a lot of uh risks uh uh towards not being frightened.

Mexico and Judicial Independence

Andrew 32:33

Could I ask um, forgive me a rather specific question? As you know, the Mexican judicial system is now based on elections. Uh, judges are being elected. And I just wondered how Freedom House sees that. Is that you know a step forward or is it worrying because of the political controls that might be applied?

Gerardo 32:55

Yes. So I think it is one of the indicators that we look at it in terms of independence of the judicial system. And also remember, we work with Mexican experts. In every country, I mean that we do our analysis, we take into account also the national opinion. You know, this is not only Freedom House. I mean, we work with a network of local analysts. And there is concern among many in Mexico that by uh uh using elections, which are rare actually in judicial systems around the world, they have actually uh very much uh put at risk the independence of the judicial. Because uh in the case of Mexico, there is one party that uh dominates now basically the politics. And it's very interesting because it's it's it's the pre uh 2.0, right? Even though the pre is no longer in power, you have now Morena actually exactly doing that, and you you don't have any more a plurality. And so we are concerned, that's why probably Mexico is one of the countries that has remained partially free, but definitely it is a factor that we look at as having either a positive effect on freedom or a negative effect. In the case of Mexico, it has a negative effect, the lack of independence, yeah, judicial independence.

Julian 34:12

So I think I mean this is this is um it's a bit more of a personal nature question, I guess. It's I was wondering you know, you you're you're currently president of Freedom House, right? And uh I was wonder wondering about your personal experience in living in non-democratic countries and how this has shaped your you know your vision or your or your your the way that you take information in.

Gerardo 34:41

Right. That's a good question. I mean, I was probably lucky or fortunate enough to emigrate to the United States uh when I was very, very young. Alberto may remember it was at a time that we had a dictatorship in Bolivia, actually, a military dictatorship before the democratic transition that occurred uh in 1982. And so, but also I think you know, back then the United States was a different country. It was the kind the the country of of dreams, the country of hopes. Uh I'm not saying it no longer is, but certainly that was the motivation actually of why we wanted to come to the so I've also had a lot of uh friends, I work with a lot of organizations in uh close countries, and I value the freedom that I have. I think the freedom of uh uh writing something that might actually be controversial, the freedom of expressing my own opinion and not having actually the liberty to say that. And that's one of the reasons why I couldn't go back to my home country for over 20 years, because if I went back somehow because of my links to my work would have been actually a risk. And I'm not the only one in that situation. And then there's I returned to Bolivia after 20 years uh a couple of weeks ago, and I met actually others who were doing the same thing for the first time. And definitely you breathe a little bit of uh better air right now, even though it's cautious, you know, optimism. And uh people are beginning to kind of see that there is a difference. It might not be a perfect difference, but certainly living in a free country versus living in an autocratic country, I think is a tremendous uh difference, unless you are in power as an autocrat, and then you do things like uh Daniel Ortega, right? You become rich, you know, you enrich your family, you take full control, and you're able, like a king or a god, even to take the citizenship out of your own citizens because they don't agree with you, right? That to me is really uh devastating in a way that you know I've seen a lot of Nicaraguan colleagues actually having been forced to leave their country as a result of that. So, yes, there is a difference, and I if you ask my preference, I'd rather live in a free country than an African country, for sure. Yeah.

Julian 37:01

Yeah, no, I think I think you know these are these these are really interesting uh background notes, and you know, we we understand absolutely where this comes from. It seems to me that one of the things, however, is that something that we see in in in Western Europe or European countries is uh is one thing which is uh keeps up keeps me up is the is the decline of of numbers of voters. Uh you know, of the participation in in the actual democratic uh of of of you know the ability to remove someone uh from power. And and and the criticism that go along with it and and so on. And uh and so similar to to to you, you know. I I have family that uh that that that's you know you know from Bolivia, and so I understand you know what it means uh to be under more autocratic regimes, uh or have heard from you know from from the from the uh from grandmothers and so on. So it's it's something that that that I I I I have in mind, but at the same time, I mean I've lived most of my life in uh in Europe, so it's not something that I've experienced myself. But seeing the movements of seeing this this declining of voting is something that is is is you know, isn't it something that is worrying or that you track at Freedom House?

Gerardo 38:22

Yeah, I mean I'm gonna speak on a personal level because as a political scientist, I mean that is something that fascinates me. How you shape, reshape, reform systems, right? And uh certainly as a political science scientist, one of the things that you'll learn, I'm a comparative political scientist. That means that I love to compare systems in a way, right? And so if you look at history, you know, from that lens, uh you can see that the more you open the space, the more you strengthen your institutions, the more you make the government more effective, the less chances are for that system actually to collapse. And it is not easy to make those changes, by the way, because it requires a lot of political will. There's decisions actually that need to be taken into account. And what I'm seeing is that right now the political community that is the constituency of democratic governance is way ahead of the democratic governance institutional structure. And they want something, the expectations are so high because it's also a much more diverse political community, whereas on the other side, the government is much more conservative in a way that basically, you know, it's very difficult to make reforms. And we are at that particular juncture in many systems. Now, certainly there are, let's say, systems that are unique. I think, for example, the U.S. system is a federal system that is uh uh uh has three branches of government in a sense, but it has become over the years much more presidential, meaning that presidential power is much more important. That's exactly what has happened in Brazil, which is the same system. That's exactly what has happened in Argentina, which is the same system as Venezuela and Mexico as well, right? I think also the other systems. There are the parliamentarian systems that you know are a little bit more stable because you can change the government with a vote of confidence, and you divide, uh, let's say, the government from the state, meaning that you have a government that governs and a state that represents, right? And also there's a lot of questions now about even monarchical parliamentarian systems, including basically in in England, right? I mean, uh to a certain extent, you can say that there is a certain stability, then, but at the other hand, people are beginning to question why do we need to continue in Spain? And some countries are deciding not to go back to being monarchies, you know, Italy is one of them in a sense, Romania is another one, Bulgaria is another country. So, all of that to say is as a political scientist, for me, the world right now in democratic governance is an interesting lab of innovation. Uh, because government also sometimes is only thought as being government. For me, as an expert in democratic governance, when I talk about democratic governance, is really a coin with two sides, government and civil society. And where you have imbalances in either one, democratic governance actually is is is to suffer, right? And so, and the creativity of human beings is impressive. If we have managed to create basically systems like the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, elections, in a sense, at least initially, where only the you know countries, but even Russia and China, even Cuba actually has elections now, and they they they value the legitimacy that that gives. It doesn't mean that their elections are actually fair and you know and transparent, but definitely we need more innovation right now because our systems and processes are becoming more complex.

Technology, AI, and the "Sovereign" Internet

Julian 42:08

And I I just want to to add to that I absolutely totally understand and agree with what you're saying. And that leads me to, I guess, one of the last questions is you know new technologies and the rise of you know the rise of AI and and security apparatus that exists. You know, I've so I've worked many years in China, and and you know, there was this idea that you'll be constantly watched everywhere. We work in London as well at present moment, you have cameras all over the streets, yeah. And and to some extent, you know, that's these technologies you we have to to go towards this innovation. These things are coming or for the present.

Gerardo 42:50

You know, how what what how do you see how do you what's the take of that is yeah, I mean that is a tremendous issue, and you know, we've published also the Freedom of the Net report annually. The last one that we published was in November of last year. It was our 15th edition, 1.5. And one of the things that we analyze is this new concept of sovereignty when it comes to basically internet. Whereas, let's say 15 years ago we thought about one internet for the entire world. Today everybody's claiming basically to have an internet for their own systems. So if you can can imagine, for example, going from let's say from Europe to China, still the same technology, but China as internet access and content is very different from what you see in Europe or the United States, right? That's one. And certainly there is a malicious way of using technology against your own citizens, for example, using spyware, using generative artificial intelligence. They can uh defake your voice, they can defake your image, and That to me is something very concerning in a way that now, even as Freedom House, we have a whole team dedicated to the area of democracy and technology because there are dilemmas, right? Uh there are dilemmas basically in terms of how this technology affects reality on the one hand, but also truth on the other hand, and all kinds of other things that are important for democracy. It is something we're beginning to see really the tip of the iceberg of what could happen, right? I don't know who did it, but there was an experiment a couple of years ago in which they created a fake candidate. It was, of course, control. It was an experiment control. And the the fake candidate actually won the election. Nobody understood that basically that particular creation was artificial. And so imagine if if if there are malicious forces that want to do something against uh you know our own humanity in a sense. I mean, certainly the technology that we have today in that sense is very, very scary. Yeah.

Reasons for Hope: The Human Will

Alberto 45:01

We are getting close to to the hour and almost close to the end of the podcast. But uh there is basically in my case, I want to do one question and I'm sure Andrew will try to do another one. So I will begin with this being a little bit abusive, abusive in the control of the technology here. We have talking a lot about concerning issues going around that is threatening the the decline of freedom. But do we have something to hope? What is your way? What can we hope in this situation?

Gerardo 45:37

Yeah. That's a great question. And certainly there is a lot to hope. I think people are still willing to fight for democracy, is one of them, and there's there's uh data on that. I think in many cases putting their lives on the line. There's still willingness to respect each other, I think, which is very important in democracy. And there are these changes, right? I mean, for example, I detected that little bit of hope in Bolivia, for example, in terms of cautious but nonetheless hope. And everybody was saying, you know, we didn't have this, you know, last year. We didn't have this five years ago, and now, you know, I have this cautious optimism that is working. I think also there is some good people around the world, basically, as many as others that are not as good. So I think, you know, overall, you know, I think there are bright spots. We just need to give more attention to them. And unfortunately, in today's news cycle, the bad news is actually what captures our attention as opposed to the good news, which is collaboration, being respectful to each other, understanding each other in a way that you can disagree, but you still can be friends and relatives, actually, right? And so I think from a perspective of an autocracy and maybe others, polarizing is a tool precisely to generate the opposite of hope and and and bright spots, and many use it very well, actually. So but it's a great question, Alberto. I really appreciate your question, and I think I'm still hopeful actually that even though we're seeing a lot of uh negative headlines in the world, that basically it is a phase and we will we will enter a new cycle of more hope and prosperity soon.

Crime Statistics vs. Political Discourse

Andrew 47:20

Go ahead. Sorry, there's just one thing I really wanted to ask. It's I'm concerned about the poor quality of democratic discourse, and I'm specifically referring to the attitudes to crime. Crime is terrible, there's no doubt about it. But it seems that a lot of politicians have found ways to win votes and and based on emotion and incomplete data, you know, post-truth, whatever you want to call it. Um, I just like to point out that there's a new president in Chile, José Antonio Castro, who won largely on promising to do something about crime. Uh whereas actual homicide rates over the last three years in Chile have been falling. So, in a sense, there's a a desire to ignore inconvenience statistics. Something similar might be going on in Brazil where the opposition to Lula is understandably raising the entire issue of crime, but the crime rate is coming down. It's still it's still dramatic and terrible, but there seems to be a need to discuss things if you like in a more accurate manner than happened so far.

Gerardo 48:36

Right. That's a great point, actually, and it's it's being used elsewhere as a as a as a polarizing issue, right? Because when you present it the way you can present an statistic, you're not really looking at those statistics that measure actually crime, but you are let's say presenting images, you're presenting actually the victims of the crime, which I understand, right? But certainly, and these are some of these issues that unfortunately are driving the democratic discourse. And that is one change that we need to promote, to start actually not only checking to see basically whatever they're saying is is is accurate, you know, and that's why I think independent journalism to me continues to be a pillar of democratic governance. Because uh, in that bucket, you can have you know a spectrum of of uh let's say opinions. One would say that it's a glass half empty, the other one would say it's a glass half full, and then you have both, and you have the opportunity to decide what is it, right? And also the fact that some issues are much more better dealt locally, at the very local level, basically, as opposed to national issues, right? And sometimes sometimes that difference is not made. But uh I agree. I mean, sometimes these are the issues that polarize and and and and generate these very opposite opposing views where actually the issues are gray, right, as opposed to black and white.

Alberto 50:05

With this, I think we are at the end of the podcast. Uh, Gerardo, we are really thankful to have you here today. It was an excellent conversation that we have. And well, we hope to have you in future episodes here at the podcast, and we will in touch. But thank you very much. It was a really great conversation.

Gerardo 50:25

Yes, thank you for having me, and certainly it's always a pleasure to have these types of conversations. And thank you. Continue with your work in this very important issues, and happy to work with you in the future. Yeah.

Alberto 50:38

All right, with this, thank you very much, and until the next time.