Leading From The Edge: When You Don't Have Enough Information to Make the Decision

What do you do when you're expected to lead...but you don't have all the answers?

Your department is over budget. You've lost key employees. Productivity is slipping. Burnout is rising. Then leadership announces there may be an organizational change in the next 30 days.

Do you hire?

Do you wait?

Do you restructure?

Or do you risk making the wrong decision?

In this episode of the Purpose.Presence.People., Antrea Dowd introduces the first step of the EDGE Model®: Evaluate—a practical leadership framework designed to help leaders navigate uncertainty with confidence.

You'll learn:

• Why most leadership mistakes begin with assumptions, not facts
• How confirmation bias quietly influences your decisions
• The difference between reacting emotionally and responding intentionally
• Practical questions every leader should ask before making a high-stakes decision
• A simple exercise to help you separate facts from the stories your mind is creating

If you've ever felt the pressure of leading without complete information, this episode will give you a new way to think before you act.

Leadership Challenge: This week, practice separating facts from assumptions in every difficult situation you face. You may discover that the biggest obstacle isn't uncertainty—it's the story you've been telling yourself about it.

Coming Next: You've learned how to evaluate a situation with clarity. But once you've separated fact from assumption, how do you actually make the decision? In the next episode, we'll explore the second step of the EDGE Model®, Decide, and why the most important leadership decision isn't what you're going to do...it's who you're going to be.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

If you've been keeping up with Leading from the Edge series, you know I frequently talk about four main tensions that leaders face in today's leadership: certainty versus uncertainty, performance versus people, stability versus transformation, and confidence and strain. Over the next few episodes of Purpose Presence People, I am going to break down each tension and show you how to use the edge leadership style that I created to lead through all of these tensions. You know, people sometimes ask me where the idea of leading from the edge came from. And honestly, they usually expect me to point to one defining moment, one big crisis, one incredible mentor, or one life-changing mistake. But the truth is, it wasn't just one moment. It was hundreds of moments. Over more than 30 years, I've worked in healthcare, education, leadership development, patient experience, workforce development, you name it. Every promotion came with a new title, a bigger office, a larger budget, and more responsibility. And if I'm honest, when I first became a leader, I thought my job was to have all of the answers. I mean, I thought confidence meant certainty. I thought my team expected me to know exactly what to do. That's why I was promoted to leader. Then one day, I found myself sitting across from a team that needed direction. And I very humbly realized I didn't have all the information. I mean, there wasn't a policy that I could go to that would solve my problem. There wasn't a spreadsheet that had my answer. There wasn't a leadership book sitting on my shelf with chapter seven titled, Here's Exactly What to Do. But there were people looking at me. And I had to make a decision without knowing how everything would turn out. I remember leaving that meeting thinking, maybe I'm not ready for this. Maybe I'm not ready to be a leader. But over time, I realized something. It wasn't that I wasn't ready. It was that I stepped into leadership and completely misunderstood what leadership was. You see, leadership was never about having all the answers, it's about helping people move forward when no one has all the answers. That realization changed everything. And so I stopped trying to be the smartest person in the room. I started asking better questions. I stopped chasing certainty and started building clarity. I stopped believing that leadership was all about controlling every outcome. And I started believing leadership meant creating confidence in the middle of uncertainty. That, you guys, is where leading from the edge was born. Because every meaningful leadership decision I've ever made has happened in a massive state of uncomfortableness on the edge where things are not comfortable. And so these decisions were made not when everything made sense, not when I had every answer available, but when my future and the future of my decisions was clear as mud. And I realized that that uncomfortable feeling that I had, that edge, it wasn't something that I should avoid. Because that's where my true transformation began to happen. And it's where leaders are made. So before we jump into today's conversation, I want to tell you why this particular series that I'm about to go into matters. First of all, let me pause. If you're new here, welcome. I'm Andrea Dowd. And after more than three decades of leading in healthcare, education, workforce development, and organizational leadership, I've learned something that completely changed the way I think about leadership. Leadership isn't difficult because people are difficult. Leadership is difficult because leaders are constantly being asked to live between competing troops. Let me explain what I mean by that. We're expected to be confident while admitting we don't have all the answers. We're expected to move quickly, but without rushing. We're expected to care deeply about our people while still delivering performance. We're expected to create stability while leading organizations through constant change. You see, those tensions don't go away when you become a better leader. They just become your everyday reality. And that's where the leading from the edge framework comes into play. Because the edge isn't a place where leadership falls apart, it's a place where leadership is forged. And so throughout the next couple of episodes, we're going to explore one foundational tension every leader faces: clarity versus uncertainty. How do you lead when the answers aren't obvious? How do you make decisions with incomplete information? How do you inspire confidence without pretending to know everything? You see, most leadership books teach you what to do after the fog leaders. This series is about what to do while you're standing in it. Because that's where leadership actually happens. And so whether you're listening today in your office, your car, or on a morning walk, or getting ready for yet another busy day, I want you to think of this as a conversation between leaders. Not because I have every answer, believe me, I definitely do not. But because together we're learning how to lead from the edge. So let's get started. Leadership isn't what it used to be. The pressure is higher, the clarity is lower, and the expectations haven't changed. I'm Andrea Dowd, a leadership expert with over 30 years of experience across healthcare, education, and organizational leadership. I've led teams on the front lines, developed leaders across systems, and spent my career helping people navigate what leadership really looks like when things get hard. This is Purpose, Presence, People. Today's episode is clarity versus uncertainty when you don't have enough information to make the decision. All right. Have you ever noticed the toughest leadership decisions never happen after all the facts are neatly organized in a beautiful PowerPoint? No, they happen on Tuesday morning between meetings, after someone unexpectedly resigns, or when your budget gets cut, your best employee tells you they're interviewing somewhere else, or your boss casually says, Don't make any major changes yet. We may be restructuring. May I don't know about you, but May has probably stolen more sleep from leaders than any other word in the English language, right? Because suddenly you're leading people through a future that hasn't happened yet. Right? Your team has questions, your peers are given their opinions, and corporate has possibilities, and somewhere, somehow, everyone expects you as the leader to have the answers. Here's what I've learned after decades of leading. The moments that define your leadership are almost never the moments when everything is clear. They're the moments when nothing is. And so today we're talking about one of the greatest tensions every leader will experience. Making those decisions when you don't have enough information. So if you've ever laid a weight replaying every possible outcome, if you've ever wondered whether acting too quickly or waiting too long would hurt your team, if you've ever felt the weight of caring uncertainty while trying to inspire confidence, this episode is for you. Because today we're not talking about decision making, we're talking about leadership under pressure. So let's pull apart a myth. The myth of certainty is what I like to call it. Can I tell you something that changed my entire perspective on leadership? You see, most leaders are waiting for clarity that never comes. And mind you, we convince ourselves when I know more, that's when I'll decide. When leadership gives direction, then I'll add. When the market settles, then I'll move. Well I gotta wait till the budget is finalized, then I'll have the confidence. But leadership doesn't work that way. In fact, the higher you move up in leadership, the less information you actually have. You see, people think executives possess all of the answers. The truth, they simply become more comfortable making decisions with incomplete information. That's the job. Take a moment and think about your own career. How many times did you have every piece of information before making an important decision? I think it's safe to say probably never. How about buying a house? Did you have all the answers? When you decided to change the job, did you have all the answers? Oh, here's a good one. What about getting married? Launching a business, starting a new position. There was always uncertainty in your life, yet you moved anyway. Leadership is exactly the same way. The question isn't how do I eliminate uncertainty? The question is, how do I lead while I'm inside of it? Let's talk about your brain and what happens when you feel uncertainty and why it's so unit's so dangerous. Because your brain absolutely hates uncertainty. Neuroscience tells us that uncertainty activates many of the same stress responses as physical danger. You see, your brain would actually prefer bad certainty over unknown possibilities. Why? Because uncertainty requires energy, and so your brain begins creating stories. They probably cut my budget, they're replacing me. My team is going to leave. They're not telling me everything. Notice something about those statements. None of these are facts, they're just stories that your brain told you to fill the gap of uncertainty, to relieve that sense of uncomfortability. Our brains are remarkable, talented storytellers. Unfortunately, they're often terrible fact-checkers. You see, as leaders, our first responsibility isn't managing our teams. It's managing the stories inside our own heads. Because whatever story you're telling yourself, your team will eventually hear it. Even if it doesn't come out of your mouth. And so if you're a leader that runs around like the house is on fire, going all over the place, your team will follow suit and become just as dishuffled. And so I want to walk you through a real example. Imagine you're managing an apartment that's over budget. You've lost two employees, productivity has dropped, burnout is rising, and corporate tells you they may reorganize in 30 days. Now what? Do you hire? Do you wait? Do you restructure? Do you eliminate positions? There isn't one perfect answer to this particular situation, but there is a better process. This is where my edge model becomes your compass for navigating this. And so we're going to begin with breaking down each step and applying it to this scenario of the edge model. So the first step in the edge model is E. Evaluate. Now, if you're anything like me, you hear the word evaluate and you're probably thinking about let's gather some information, right? Look at some reports, let's review the data, let's read some emails, start checking metrics to try and figure out what we're gonna do. And all of that matters, but that's not what I'm talking about today. When I say evaluate, I'm talking about evaluating your thinking. Evaluate is the discipline of slowing your thinking down long enough to see reality clearly before deciding how to respond. So let's think about that scenario. Your department is already stretched thin, right? You've lost two employees, your remaining team is covering the extra work, productivity is beginning to slip, burnout is definitely becoming visible, people are tired, they're exhausted, you can see it in their faces, you hear it in the conversations at the water cooler. You can even feel it every time another email lands in the box, you can feel the tension. Then your phone rings and corporate says, We may be reorganizing.

SPEAKER_01 17:52

Not will. Do you hire? Do you freeze hiring? Do you restructure?

SPEAKER_00 18:10

Do you redistribute work? Do you eliminate positions? Do you wait? In my past, this is what I've noticed most leaders do next. They immediately begin searching for the right answer. Because it's uncomfortable. They don't know what's going on. So they begin to search for the right answer. But I want to challenge that thought process. Because I don't want you to think your first responsibility is finding the right answer. I think your first responsibility should be asking the right questions. That's what evaluate is all about. It isn't rushing towards action, it's creating clarity. Because clarity is not going to magically appear. As a leader, you must create it. And so the first thing that I want you to do is stop asking, what should I do? Instead ask, what do I actually know? Notice how different those two questions are. One searches for solutions, the other searches for truth. And so let's think about the scenario and let's separate the facts from the assumptions. Here's what we know for sure. We know two employees have resigned. We know productivity has declined, the data showing that. We know overtime has increased. We've got data to back that up. And we know people are showing signs of burnout. We also know corporate mentioned a possibility of reorganization.

unknown 20:06

That's it.

SPEAKER_00 20:07

That's all we know. Everything else is interpretation. And so let's roll this through and think about what our minds often add to situations like this. Oh, we're probably gonna lose more people. They're probably eliminating my department. I shouldn't hire because my budget may disappear. If I wait, my team will think I don't care. But if I act now, I'll look irresponsible. Do you hear what's happening in those questions? The facts ended five sentences ago. Everything since the facts has been a story. And stories are very, very powerful. Because we don't just think them, we start believing them. Then we begin making decisions as if those stories are already true. One of the biggest threats to good leadership is confirmation bias. Here's how it works. Once you've decided what part of the story you believe, your brain quietly starts proving you right. Let's imagine you've convinced yourself that corporate is planning major layoffs. Now every conversation feels suspicious. Every calendar meeting feels ominous. Every delayed email feels intentional. Someone from finance is asking for a staffing report. CCC. I knew something was happening. Except, think about this. Maybe they're just asking for staffing reports every quarter. Your brain isn't lying to you, it's filtering for evidence that supports what you've already decided to believe. That's confirmation bias. And leaders fall into it every single day. And so the danger isn't just believing the wrong story. The danger is making decisions based on a story that was never true to begin with. Then there's emotional reasoning. This one is so. Instead of asking what are the facts, we ask, how do I feel? And then we mistake our feelings for evidence. I feel overwhelmed. The situation must be impossible. I feel anxious. I must be making the wrong decision. I feel uncertain. Well, I probably shouldn't act. But leadership requires emotional awareness, but without emotional surrender. So just because you feel uncertain and uncomfortable doesn't mean you're unprepared. Ladies and gentlemen, it just means you're human. Some of the best decisions you'll ever make will still feel uncomfortable. Not because they're wrong, but because they're important. Let me tell you about a lesson I learned early in my leadership journey. I remember leading a team during a season of significant change. Communication from senior leadership had slowed down, and the rumors amongst the team were spreading like wildfire. People were nervous. Every meeting seemed to generate more questions and less answers. I found myself contemplating and assuming that the silence meant something very negative. And so I started preparing for outcomes that hadn't happened yet because I was like, I've got to get ahead of this. And then I caught myself making contingency plans based on possibilities instead of realities. And then someone I respected asked me one simple question. She said, Andrea, what do you know? And what are you assuming? Kind of looked up at her and stopped me down in my tracks because I was like, wow, am I assuming some of this? Because when I wrote everything down, I realized most of what was driving my decision wasn't information, it was anticipation. I wasn't responding to the reality, I was responding to the fear disguised as preparation. And it changed the way that I lead. And so now, whenever uncertainty shows up, I slow down before I speed up. Because clarity almost always lives on the other side of curiosity. So here's what I would do if I was the leader in this department. Before making one staffing decision, I'd open a notebook, and at the top of the page, I'd write facts, and on the other side, assumptions. Under facts, I'd write, we've had two employees, two employees have quit, productivity has declined, burnout is increasing, corporate mention a possible reorganization. That's all. Now let's identify what we still need to learn. How severe is the productivity decline? Which work absolutely must continue? Which work can be delayed? How long can the team realistically sustain this pace? What positions are most critical to patient care or customer outcomes? And then what flexibility do I have with my budget? Has corporate in fact frozen hiring? Or am I assuming that they have? Who do I need to talk to before making this decision? Notice something a little different there? You see, grade evaluation doesn't produce immediate answers. What it should do is produce better questions. And better questions almost always lead to better decisions. Before we leave today, I want to give you what I call the leadership pause. Whenever you're facing uncertainty, I want you to ask yourself these five questions. What do I know to be true? What am I assuming? What evidence supports my assumptions? What information am I still missing? And finally, probably the hardest question. If I weren't afraid, what questions would I ask next? Because fear makes us search for answers. Wisdom makes us search for understanding. And that's what evaluate is really about. It's refusing to confuse urgency with clarity. It's slowing your thinking long enough to see reality as it is and not as fear imagines it to be. Because every great decision begins with one simple act of courage. The courage to stop long enough to make sure you're solving the right problem. And so this week, I leave you with this challenge. Don't solve uncertainty. Observe it. Every time you notice yourself making assumptions, write them down, then ask, is this fact or is this fear pretending to be fact? I promise you'll be surprised how often uncertainty isn't your biggest problem. It's the story you're telling yourself. Leadership has never been about predicting the future, it's always been about preparing people for it. The best leaders don't eliminate uncertainty, they reduce unnecessary fear. And so remember, your team doesn't borrow confidence from the future, they borrow confidence from you. Not because you know everything, but because they trust how you will respond when you don't. Next week, we will use the same scenario and define the D in Edge, which is decide what leader we want to be. Until then, keep leading from the edge.