This Could Stay In Your Herd

Cattle markets are holding strong—but there’s pressure building underneath that most producers aren’t fully accounting for yet.

Today we break down what’s really happening across the markets that feed America. Cattle continue to find support from tight supply, but that strength is running into elevated costs, mixed grain signals, and weather that’s starting to affect timing across key areas.

But the biggest risk may not be on the board at all.

The Asian longhorned tick is spreading across Missouri and surrounding states, bringing a long-term challenge to cattle operations that doesn’t go away once it shows up. This isn’t a one-time issue—this is something producers may have to manage moving forward.

We connect cattle strength, cost pressure, weather shifts, and emerging biological risk—so you can see what’s building before the market fully reacts.

If you want daily updates on the markets that feed America, subscribe to Boots & Bushels.

⸻



cattle market outlook
feeder cattle futures
livestock market update
farm margins
ag markets today
grain market outlook
farm news
asian longhorned tick
cattle disease
missouri cattle
theileria cattle
cattle risk
commodity markets
crude oil agriculture
midwest farming
weather risk agriculture

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Cattle pushing higher again. If you just look at the board, it feels strong. But there's something building underneath this market right now that most producers are not fully accounting for. You've got tight cattle supplies driving higher prices, you've got oil staying elevated, you've got weather starting to shift planting timelines. And on top of all that, there's a biological risk spreading across Missouri and surrounding states that doesn't show up on the board at all, but absolutely affects cattle. And the real question right now isn't where prices are today. It's whether all these pressures can keep building at the same time without forcing a change. This is boots and bushels you've look at the markets of feed America. Let's get into what's moving today. Cattle continue to lead this market, and that strength is not coming from speculations, coming from a real supply situation. There are simply fewer cattle available. Years of liquidation, drought pressure, and tighter herd size have worked their way through the system, and now we're seeing a result. Packers are competing for cattle, futures are reflecting that. And the overall tone stays supported. But here's the pressure point underneath that strength. High prices solve supply problems over time. They incentivize expansion, they shift decisions, and they bring more cattle into the system eventually. The question is timing, because right now supply is still tight, but at the same time, the cost side of the equation is not easy. And that's where the rest of the market starts to matter. Before we go further, if you want daily updates on the market's weather and risk that actually affect producers, make sure you're subscribed. I do this every Monday through Friday so you can stay ahead of what's building, not just react to it after the fact. Grains are not giving you a clean signal right now. Corn is holding steady, soybeans are slightly weaker, wheat is softer. And when you see that kind of split, it usually means the market is still trying to decide what matters most. Right now there are multiple forces pulling in different directions. Weather's one, global risk is another, demand is another, and none of them have taken full control yet. Wheat weakness is being tied to improving moisture in parts of the plains. That matters. Because wheat tends to be an early signal when weather shifts. If conditions improve, wheat reacts first, and that can bleed into the rest of the grain complex. But at the same time, there's still enough uncertainty globally to keep the floor under commodities, so instead of a clean move, you get hesitation. Crude oil continues to trade at elevated levels, and that matters, not because it's new information, but because it hasn't gone away. The market is still reacting to global tension and supply uncertainty, and that keeps energy supported, which means cost pressure stays in place. Not easing, not fading, just sitting there underneath everything. So even when grain markets hesitate or soften slightly, the cost structure for producers is not relaxing alongside it. And that's where margin pressure builds. Not from one big move, but from sustained pressure over time. Weather's starting to play a more active role. We're seeing moisture in parts of Missouri and surrounding areas improve conditions, but it's not uniform. Some areas are moving, some are delayed, and that uneven progress creates timing pressure because planting windows don't adjust. Decisions still have to be made, and if delays begin to stack even early, it tightens the margin for error later in the season. That's where acreage decisions start to shift, and that's something the market is watching closely right now. Get into some news. We're going to get deeper into cattle, because it's not just a short-term story. This is structural. U.S. cattle herd is historically tight, and even when disruptions happen at the packer level, that doesn't create supply. It just shifts where cattle are processed. The underlying issue remains. There are fewer animals moving through the system, which means feedlots are not backed up, packers are competing, prices stay supported. But there's a second layer to this. Higher cattle prices don't automatically mean better outcomes for everyone. Because input costs still matter, feed still matters, timing still matters, and if those pressures stay elevated, you start to get tension between strong cattle prices and overall profitability. That's the balance the market is working through right now. Global instability continues to influence markets in a way that it goes beyond simple supply and demand. Energy markets are reacting quickly to headlines, grain markets are reacting to uncertainty, and traders are constantly repricing risk. This creates a different kind of environment, one where prices move not just on what's happening, but on what might happen. That keeps volatility elevated, and it creates a market where direction is harder to define, because sentiment can shift quickly, and when that happens, markets can move faster than fundamentals alone would suggest. And there's something else building right now that doesn't show up on the board at all, but it absolutely affects cattle. The Asian Longhorn tick is spreading across Missouri and surrounding states faster than most expected. And this is not a typical tick issue. This is a different kind of risk, because this tick doesn't reproduce like normal ticks. It can reproduce without a mate. One tick can create thousands, which means operations don't see a slow buildup. They see nothing. And then suddenly they're dealing with a heavy infestation. But the bigger issue is what the tick carries, a blood parasite called thiria orientalis. That I don't know if I said that right. Once that gets into the herd, you're not treating it and moving on. Cattle become carriers for life. There's no approved treatment in the United States, no vaccine. So producers are not carrying this. They're managing around it. And Missouri is becoming one of the key areas to watch because it has the exact conditions this tick thrives in. Humidity, long growing seasons, pasture mixed with timber, strong wildlife movement. That combination allows this tick to spread across counties quickly. And this is no longer a situation where it's just being detected, it's establishing itself, which means this becomes part of the operating environment, not a one-time issue. And here's where it matters for producers. Even without visible losses, you can see reduced weight gain, cattle that struggle under stress, performance that doesn't quite line up. And those are the losses that quietly affect margins over time. And here's the bigger concern. Other countries that have dealt with this for years are not eliminating it. They're managing around it. So while the market is focused on strong cattle prices, there's a biological pressure building underneath that is not being priced in yet. Here's what you're looking at right now tight cattle supply supporting prices, grain markets without clear direction, elevated energy maintaining cost pressure, weather starting to influence timing, and a biological risk expanding in cattle country. None of these alone breaks the market, but together they start to build pressure. And markets don't move on one factor. They move in multiple pressures stack at the same time. Here's where things are trading right now. May corn is at four dollars and fifty-four cents unchanged. May soybeans at eleven sixty six slightly lower. May Chicago wheat five dollars and ninety five cents. June live cattle two hundred and forty seven dollars and thirty cents, a little bit higher. May feeder cattle three hundred and seventy dollars and seventy cents steady. June lean hogs one hundred seven fifty five higher. May crude oil one hundred and thirteen dollars sixty one cents. Board might look steady in spots, but underneath it pressure's building. And the next move won't come from one headline. It's going to come from how all of this stacks together. That's today's episode of Boots and Bushels. I'll be back here again tomorrow.