Cattle Are Holding… But Pressure Is Building Fast

Cattle prices are holding strong—but everything around the market is starting to tighten.

In today’s Boots & Bushels, we break down the real pressure building across agriculture. USDA is projecting farm income down 24%, fertilizer prices may be rising again, and weather is creating uneven crop conditions across the country.

This isn’t just one issue—it’s multiple factors stacking at the same time:

* Weather creating uneven planting and crop risk
* Rising input costs tied to global tensions
* Slowing farm income tightening margins
* Strong cattle prices with limited expansion behind them

We also cover where markets were trading late in today’s session, including corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, and crude oil.

If you’re a producer trying to stay ahead of what’s coming next, this is the part of the market you need to be watching.

If you want daily updates on the markets that feed America, subscribe to Boots & Bushels.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Cattle are still holding together right now, but if you're just watching the price, you're missing what's actually building underneath this market. Because this isn't just about cattle being strong. This is about everything around us starting to tighten at the same time. And that's where things can change fast. This is Boots and Bushels, your daily look at the markets at Feed America. And quick before we get into it, if you want daily updates, go ahead and hit like and subscribe. I keep this focused on what actually matters when you're trying to make decisions. Alright, let's walk through this. Because there's a few things hitting at once right now. And if you just looked at one piece, it doesn't really make sense. But when you stack it together, that's when it starts to show you where the pressure is actually building. Let's start with the USDA, because they're moving forward with that new food safety headquarters in Iowa. And at the same time, they just signed a$300 million deal with Planeteer to consolidate and modernize farm data. And most people hear that and move on, but slow that down for a second. Because when you start moving departments, shifting roles, and centralizing data systems, you're not just reorganizing. You're changing how decisions get made. You're changing how information moves, and you're changing how quickly policy can react to what's happening on the ground. And they don't spend that kind of money unless they plan on using it. So while that might not hit you today, that's part of the bigger shift that's already starting to take place. Not layer this on top of it, because the USDA is projecting farm income down 24% from the 2022 highs. And that's not just a bad year, that's a reset. And this is where people miss it. Because you can have strong cattle prices, you can have parts of the market that look good. But if overall farm income is pulling back like that, it tells you something else is tightening somewhere in the system. And margins don't stay wide open when the bigger picture is contracting. Something always adjusts. It just doesn't always happen all at once. Now bring it down to what's actually happening in the field, because you've got Illinois to Michigan basically stuck right now, with heavy rains and storms keeping guys out. And at the exact same time you've got Southern farmers planting at record pace. So you've got two completely different situations happening at once. And this is where people start overcomplicating it, because you don't need a stack of reports to understand what that does. If part of the crop grows in clean on time, and other part gets delayed or stressed, you don't end up with smooth outcome. You end up with inconsistency. And that inconsistency is what creates volatility later on. That's what starts to show up when the markets actually have to price in reality instead of expectations. Now add fertilizer into it, because nitrogen prices are already being talked about moving higher again. That's not complicated why. You've got Middle East tension, you've got potential Gulf disruptions, and anytime that supply chain starts looking uncertain, the market reacts. And you don't need to overthink that either. If supply tightens and ban is still there, prices go up, same as anything else. And when that happens at the same time, you're already dealing with weather issues and uneven planting. That's when it starts stacking pressure instead of just being one off issue. So now step back and look at what's actually building here. Because you've got weather delays in part of the country. You've got uneven planting progress, you've got input costs that could move higher again, and at the same time, you've got farm income projected lower. And that's where things start to tighten up. Not in one big wave, but in a way that slowly starts to squeeze decisions. And that's usually when you guys start adjusting how they operate without even realizing it at first. Now come back to cattle, because this is where it gets interesting. The beef market is still strong, supplies are tight, prices are holding, and that part looks good. But the issue underneath that expansion is still slow. So yeah, prices are high, but you don't have the growth behind it to relieve that pressure. And it's like holding something too tight for too long. Eventually something has to give. Either supply starts to build or demand starts pushing back. But it doesn't just stay perfectly balanced forever. And then you've got equipment on top of that, with new tractor sales down almost 9% and used equipment up over 12%, and that tells you exactly where guys are right now. They're not expanding, they're adjusting. They're holding off where they can and making what they have last longer. And that's not a sign of confidence, that's a sign that people are starting to feel pressure and respond to it before it gets worse. So when you take all this together, this isn't just one story. You've got policy shifting, data systems changing, income pulling back, weather causing uneven starts, inputs threatening to move higher, and producers already adjusting behavior. And you can operate in that kind of environment, but it doesn't give you much room for mistakes, and that's really the point here. Because you can look at cattle and say things are strong, and they are. But if everything around it is tightening, that strength is going to get tested. Now let's take a look at where these markets are trading yesterday just before the end of the day. Because on the surface, things look fairly steady, but once you start digging into it, there's a little more going on underneath. Wheat led the move higher yesterday with Chicago July up about 15 cents, trading near 622. And that kind of move usually doesn't happen for no reason, especially in a market that's been trying to find direction. So that's something traders are paying attention to right now, especially with everything else going on globally and weather's still not fully sorted out. Oats followed along, up a few cents trading near 334. Nothing explosive there, but still holding firm. When you see those smaller markets stay supported, it usually tells you there's at least some underlying strength holding things together. Now flip over to corn, and this is where things get a little more balanced, trading near 464, up slightly on a day. Not a big move, but also not breaking lower either, and that's kind of where this market's been sitting, just trying to figure out direction while everything else plays out around it. Soybeans are a weak spot today, slipping back a few cents, trading near 1174, and that's been the story here lately. Just not able to build much momentum. When you've got weather, global demand and planting all in play at the same time, beans tend to feel that pressure a little quicker. Now come back over to livestock because cattle are still holding together. Live cattle trading near$243 up slightly. Feeder cattle near$359, also holding gains. And that's been the theme. Tight supply is continuing to support this market, even while everything else around it is starting to tighten up. Hogs are also higher on the day, trading near$103. Not a huge move, but still trending in the right direction. And that's something to keep an eye on as well as we move forward. Then you've got crude oil, which was up strong again, trading near$97 a barrel. This is where things start to tie back into everything else. Weather's starting to split this country in half right now, and if you're not paying attention to that, you're gonna miss where this next move comes from. Because this isn't just some areas wet, some areas dry. This is setting up uneven crops, uneven timing, and that's where things start to get tight later. What you've got right now is a pattern where one part of the country is able to move and get things done while another part keeps getting interrupted. And that sounds normal on the surface, but it's not when it lines up like this early in the season. Because once you start getting uneven starts, you don't just lose time, you start changing outcomes. And that's the part people don't always catch in the moment. And you don't need to overthink this to understand what it does. If part of the crop goes in clean and under good conditions, and another part has to fight weather just to get planted, you're not dealing with one uniform crop anymore. You're dealing with multiple situations developing at the same time. And that's where things start to move later, because now the market has to figure out what the real supply actually looks like, instead of assuming it's all coming in the same way. Now here's where it starts to matter more, because this isn't just about delays, it's also about the kind of weather that comes with it. When you start talking about repeated systems, you're not just looking at rain. You're looking at wind, localized flooding, and severe weather setups that can actually cause damage. And there's a big difference between being behind and being damaged. Being behind is something you can work around. But once you start dealing with damage, that's when it starts stacking on top of everything else instead of just pushing things back. And you've still got areas that aren't sitting perfectly either. So while part of the country is dealing with too much at once, other areas aren't necessarily set up for a clean run either. And that's where people miss the bigger picture, because they focus on one side or the other. But the reality is you've got multiple weather patterns pulling in different directions at the same time. So what does that actually mean? It means you're not getting a clean, predictable start to the season. When that happens, it usually doesn't fix itself later on. It just carries forward in different ways, whether that's uneven emergence, stress at different growth stages, or timing issues when it comes to harvest. And all that eventually shows up somewhere. This is where people start overcomplicating things, trying to track every model and every forecast shift. And you don't need all that. What you need to understand is simple. If crop doesn't go in evenly, it doesn't come out evenly. And when that happens, the market has to figure it out later, and that's where volatility comes from. So yeah, you can look at today and say some areas are moving and some aren't. But the bigger picture here is you're already setting the stage for inconsistency. And that's the part that actually matters going forward. Now a quick market recap. Corn is trading near 464, up about a penny on the day. Soybeans near 1174, down roughly 4 cents. Chicago wheat's pushing higher near 622, up about 15 cents. Oats near 334, up a few cents. Live cattle are holding strong near$243 up slightly. Feeder cattle, near$359, also up higher. Lean hogs trading near$103 up on the day. Crude oil strong again, near$97 a barrel, up over$4. That's your boots and bushels for today. I'll be back again Monday.