Cattle Look Strong… But We Saw This in 2014

Cattle are still holding near the highs, but the last time the market looked this strong… it didn’t stay that way for long.

In this episode of Boots & Bushels, we break down the 2014 cattle highs and compare them to what’s building right now. Tight supply, strong demand, and rising prices all look familiar — but the pressure underneath the market is starting to shift.

At the same time, weather is creating a split across the U.S. Some areas are pushing ahead, while others are running into tighter planting windows. That kind of uneven progress doesn’t stop the market — it creates uncertainty.

We walk through:

* What actually caused the cattle market to turn in 2014
* Where similar pressure could be building today
* How weather is splitting progress across the country
* What producers should be watching right now

This isn’t about headlines — it’s about what’s starting to change underneath the market.

If you want daily updates on the markets that feed America, subscribe to Boots & Bushels.



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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Cattle look strong on the surface right now, but the last time this market looked this clean was right before it turned, and most producers didn't see it coming until it was already happening. This is Boots and Bushels here today to look at the markets that feed America. Let's walk through this, because this kind of setup can be easy to misread if you're only watching the board. Back in 2014, cattle didn't just grind higher, they surged. Record prices, tight supply, strong demand. For a stretch, felt like there wasn't much standing in the way of that move continuing. And that part should sound familiar, because right now we're seeing some of those same signals again. Tight herd numbers, firm cash markets, and futures holding near the upper end. But the real story back then wasn't just how strong the market was. It was how fast things started to shift once pressure built around it. In 2014, the rally was driven by a supply squeeze. Years of drought had forced liquidation, herd size dropped. When demand held, prices had to move higher to balance it out. It was a simple setup. Less cattle, higher prices. But then things started to change. Feed costs began to ease, corn came down, that shifted incentives almost immediately. Producers started thinking differently, holding back heifers, looking at expansion. At the same time, beef prices had climbed high enough that consumers started pushing back. Not a collapse in demand, just enough resistance to take some pressure off the top. And when you stack those things together, expansion starting, feed economic shifting, demand softening, the balance changed. Once it tipped, the move lower came quicker than most expected. Now bring that forward to today. Because this is where the comparison starts to get uncomfortable. You still have tight cattle numbers, that hasn't changed. But feed costs are not where they were a couple years ago. Corn has backed off from the highs. That doesn't flip a switch overnight, but it starts to influence decisions. Even if expansion isn't aggressive yet, the conversation is starting. Now look at the demand side. Beef is still expensive. And just like back then, the question isn't whether demand is holding today. It's how long it holds if prices stay elevated. It doesn't take a collapse to shift a market like this. It just takes enough pressure to stop pushing it higher. Now layer in something that's even more of a factor today than it was in 2014. Operating cost. Fuel, equipment, financing, all still elevated. So even with lower feed cost, margins aren't as clean as they might appear. That changes how aggressive expansion can really be. It slows things down, but it doesn't eliminate the pressure. And let me bring this back around because this is where people tend to get caught. In 2014, the market didn't feel weak at the top. It felt strong, it felt justified, it felt like there was still room to run. That's exactly why so many people missed the turn. By the time the shift showed up clearly, it was already underway. So right now the focus isn't just on how strong cattle look, it's on what's building underneath. Are producers starting to lean toward expansion? Are feed costs starting to change decisions? Is demand still pushing or just holding on? Those are the kinds of shifts that change direction before price reflects it. Now let's connect a few things that are in play right now, even without a major headline driving the market. Weather is one piece. As we move through the next stretch, conditions across parts of the plains are going to matter if hot and dry conditions can push movement quicker than planned. That's how weather feeds into supply timing without ever showing up directly in price at first. Then there's the broader economic side. Interest rates, consumer spending, export competition. None of those hit all at once, but they all lean on demand over time. And at these price levels, demand doesn't have a lot of room to weaken. Now stepping back for a second, you've got tight supply, strong prices, shifting cost structure, and demand that has to stay firm to support it. If one of those pieces starts to move, the tone can change faster than most expect. Weather's not shutting this planning season down, but it is starting to split it, and that kind of setup can create just as much pressure as a full delay if you're on the wrong side of it. Let's walk through the weather to starting Tuesday, because this isn't just a simple rain event, this is a pattern shift, and it's a kind that can quietly change how the season develops. Starting Tuesday, we begin to see a system move across the central part of the country, stretching from the plains up through the Midwest and down into the Delta. And at first glance it doesn't look extreme. It's not a nationwide washout, but that's exactly what makes it tricky, because instead of stopping everything, it creates uneven movement. Some areas are going to catch rain early in the week, others are going to stay just dry enough to keep running. And that split is where things start to matter. As we move into Wednesday and Thursday, that's where the pattern really becomes more active. Storms begin to build across the central U.S. You're looking at the corridor from the southern plains up into the Midwest, where showers and thunderstorms start to stack up. And this isn't just light rain. There's potential here for heavier pockets, localized storms, even some severe weather in spots, hell, wind, the kind of thing that can do damage even if it's not widespread. Now here's why I want to pause for a second, because this is where people misread this kind of week. If you're in an area that stays mostly dry, it's going to feel like progress is still rolling. Planters are moving, work is getting done, and it looks like everything is on track. But just a few states over, you could have fields sitting, waiting, trying to catch a window. And that difference starts to show up in the data. Not all at once, but in pieces. Now moving to Thursday and Friday, the system doesn't just disappear. It drags, storms continue to move through parts of the central and eastern US, while the western side stays more stable. And that creates a pretty clear divide across the country. Western areas generally warmer, drier, more consistent. Central and eastern areas, cooler, wetter, more unpredictable. When you get that kind of split, it doesn't just affect this week. It starts to shape how the next few weeks unfold. Because once you fall behind in a pattern like this, you're not just waiting for one dry day, you're waiting for multiple things to line up. Now let's bring this back to what actually matters if you're making decisions right now. This is not a can you work or not kind of week. This is a timing week. Short windows, changing conditions. Decisions that depend on what happens over the next twenty four to forty eight hours, not the next seven days. And that's where mistakes start to happen, rushing ahead of rain, waiting too long and missing a window, getting caught halfway through a job when conditions turn. Now this is where it ties into the bigger picture. Markets don't react to perfect conditions, they react to uncertainty. And this kind of pattern, where progress is uneven across the country, builds uncertainty fast. Because you don't get a clean story. You don't get planting is ahead or planting is behind. You get both at the same time, and that's when markets start to hesitate. That's when sentiment starts to shift. And sometimes that shift happens before the actual numbers fully show it. Now layer in the severe weather side of this, because that's another piece that can that can't be ignored. This time of year, when you start stacking moisture and warmer temperatures, you increase the risk of storms that carry more punch. Even if it's not widespread, all it takes is one system hitting the wrong area at the wrong time to create localized damage. Whether that's crops, infrastructure, or just pushing things back another few days. And again, that doesn't show up everywhere. But it shows up enough to matter. Now stepping back and looking at the whole setup, you've got a country that's not moving at the same speed. You've got weather that's creating windows instead of shutting things down completely. And you've got a pattern that's stretching across multiple days instead of hitting and leaving. That combination is what creates pressure. Not all at once, but gradually, quietly, until it starts to show up in progress reports, conditioned ratings, and eventually price. Now a quick market update before we wrap up. Corn has been trading near the lower end of its recent range compared to earlier highs, which has been helping keep feed cost more manageable for now. Soybeans have been holding relatively steady, waiting to see how planting progress and weather continue to develop. Wheat markets are still reacting to global conditions, but also watching how U.S. weather impacts early development. Live cattle and feeder cattle are still holding firm near the upper end of their ranges, supported by tight supplies. So nothing is breaking right now, but this kind of weather pattern doesn't need to break anything to start shifting the tone. Corn's trading near 475, down a few cents late in the week. Soybeans holding near$11.95 with slight pressure. Wheat's pulling back harder, down around 15 to 16 cents. Live cattle still near the highs, around$254, but showing a little hesitation. Feeder cattle holding firm near$371. Lean hogs softer on the week, and crude oil pulling back to around$105 a barrel after recent volatility. This is Boots and Bushels for Monday, May 4th. I'll be back with another ag update tomorrow.