Threatscape Briefing

U.S. officials downplay recession risk, while analysts see a possible 2026 reacceleration.

• Winn Trivette II • Episode 9

In this episode of Threatscape Briefing, we examine the divergence between official optimism and market caution in the U.S. economy. Treasury signals confidence that recession risk is low, while independent analyses point to a possible 2026 reacceleration.

Yet the Federal Reserve remains uneasy, citing unusual trends in inflation, labor markets, and credit spreads. For executives and risk professionals, the stakes are clear: credit risk, rate path expectations, and fiscal planning all hinge on how these signals resolve. 

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