The PuckUps Podcast with Brian DeFelice, Ep. 30: Will the Bruins advance? Full round one previews and predictions

Brian previews and predicts the first round of the NHL playoffs!

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Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:01

You're listening to the Puckups Podcast. It's time to hit the ice with Brian DF. Welcome into episode 30 of the Puckups Podcast. I am Brian D Felice and thank you all for joining me. The Stanley Cup playoffs are finally upon us, and so on today's show, we're going to preview and predict the Boston Brew's opening round matchup against the Buffalo Sabres, as well as the other seven matchups around the NHL. Before we do that, however, if you haven't done so already, please go ahead and subscribe to the puck ups on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or anywhere else that you get your podcast. And to get in touch with me or be a part of the show, you can email me at info at thepuckups.com. You can tweet at me on X at Brian DFelice underscore. You can tweet at the show at the puck ups, or leave a comment on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, anywhere the show has a social media account and post content. Marco, Marco, Marco. Buffalo Sabres fans are none too pleased right now with Boston Bruins head coach Marco Stern. And that's because while the Bruins and Sabres don't officially begin until Sunday evening in Buffalo, in certain ways the games have already begun. And by that I mean the game between the ears. Now, to be fair to Sabres fans, playoff hockey brings out the emotional side in fans. And rightfully so. Not just the on ice product, not just what happens between the boards, but what happens after the games and in the locker rooms and at the podium. It's all part of what makes playoff hockey so special. And playoff sports in general, right? And so for a Buffalo Sabres fan base that has been unfortunately deprived of playoff hockey for a decade and a half, a fan base that did not deserve that absence. No fan base deserves that absence, but Buffalo fans in particular, Buffalo's a great sports city, and it's certainly a great hockey city. Despite their lack of Sabres success in the last decade plus, Buffalo has continued to lead the U.S. in national hockey TV ratings. Mutual games. The city of Buffalo always watches hockey, regardless of who's playing. And so certainly when they're back in the postseason for the first time since 2011, they're going to be clinging to every word that their coach says, that their players say, but also what the opposing players say and what the opposing coach says. Everyone knows there's a contrasting style between the Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres. Styles make fights, and that is why playoff hockey is so fascinating because you can have two teams that play similar and they try to strategize against each other for seven games. Other times you have teams that play opposite styles, and which team can implement their game more so on their opposition? Which style is better suited for the playoffs? And I think that's what we're talking about with the Bruins and the Sabres. One team is predicated on speed in Buffalo, and another team is predicated on physicality, opportunistic scoring, and defense and goaltending in Boston. And I think ultimately that is what was at the crux of Marco Sturm's comments that we'll get to in short order here. The Bruins know they have to play a certain style against Buffalo. They have to try to impede what makes Buffalo such a good team. Marco knows it. You know who else knows it? Is Lindy Ruff, the Buffalo Sabres head coach. Lindy Ruff was speaking to Buffalo Media, I want to say on Thursday. And he was asked about the Bruins and the problems that they present as a opposition. And he was asked about the job Marco Sturm has done with that Bruins team. And Lindy said as much. He said they play a physical style of hockey. They work really hard. They clog the neutral zone. And he went on to say that Marco Sturm knew the style of play that this Bruins roster had to implement this year to be successful, and that the players bought in. And Lindy Ruff went on to say that Marco was right and that Lindy would do the exact same thing, essentially, if he was in Marco's position coaching the Boston Bruins. So it's no secret how the Bruins want to play. But Marco made made specific comments today that got Buffalo fans a little bit up in arms and annoyed and frustrated, and maybe rightfully so. I mean, there has been a stereotype about the Sabres over the last 10 plus years where they're a softer team, a you know, a skill and finesse team at times that doesn't really emphasize defense and goaltending. And that obviously hasn't been the case this year with Buffalo. And so I think certain Sabres fans might be a little bit defensive of what their team has been this year versus what it's been in the past. But let's waste no further time. Let's go right to Marco Stern's comments and hear what he had to say that got Sabres fans so annoyed.

SPEAKER_01 5:26

Buffalo obviously gets the last change the first two games. Is that a huge deal or is that something that we kind of overblow as as you know reporters?

SPEAKER_00 5:36

Uh we'll we'll see. Um we'll see. In the past, uh Lindy was not really a big matchup guy. Um he did his his thing, so we'll we'll see where where it goes. Um maybe he does it differently in the playoffs, but uh but we don't really care. We really care. We know how we have to play. We're gonna be ready to go, we're excited. Uh we are bigger, stronger, we are more physical. Uh we just have to uh be smart, but we we're gonna go after them. And uh whoever comes in first line, second, I don't really care. Uh we we try to be to play our game uh and out their game.

SPEAKER_02 6:15

Okay, so basically the comments that Marco made that got people all bent out of shape was him deeming that the Bruins are bigger and more physical than Buffalo. And the reaction online, because one of my co-hosts for WEIS Escape Podcast, Bridget Prue, she had a video from Marco's Scrum, and she posted it on Twitter, and it just went viral. And it's mainly Buffalo media and Buffalo fans who caught wind of those quotes, and they're taking Marco's comments literal, and they're and they're they're mentioning that the Sabres are, you know, they have XYZ guys that are 6'5 and bigger, and blah, blah, blah. And you know, citing the fact that they had games against Tampa this year, um, where they were very physical and they battled hard and they there were a lot of fights, and and they're trying to let the you know the world know that hey, the these Buffalo Sabres are not not small and they're not soft. And I think there's merit to that. No one I don't think Marco is trying to insinuate that Buffalo was small and and and soft. I just think that it's it's kind of accurate when you not that part, but the Bruins being physical and and being a bigger team, generally speaking, they are. They're one of the heaviest teams in the league. They're one of the biggest teams in the league, and I think they have they've compiled um some of the most hits in the league. They are one of the heaviest penalized teams in the league. It's it's it's less to say what Buffalo isn't and more to say what Boston is. Boston knows that they can't really win on skill alone, especially against Buffalo. So they have to kind of muck it up. They have to, they have to grind and and be physical and hard on the fore check. And I think that ultimately is what Marco was trying to get across. And I understand Sabres fans and Saber Media hearing those comments and saying, you know, we're not, we're not, we're not, we don't shy away from physicality and and we're not small. But again, I I don't think it was meant to be any sort of uh dramatic commentary from Marco Stern there. I I think even Sabres fans would understand that Buffalo is a more skilled team than Boston and and they have more speed than Boston. So if the Bruins are gonna win the series, they're gonna have to rely on wearing down Buffalo and for-checking hard and checking well and clogging the neutral zone and having good goaltending and defense, right? So it's really no secret. That's Boston's MO. It's how listen, the Bruins got to the playoffs for a reason, right? They they certainly had some some really solid depth scoring, they had some some good success in their power play, and they have a couple of you know, certainly one superstar in David Pashnak that that had 100 points this year. And they had a great year from Charlie McAvoy and a good year from Swayman and Corpusala, but mainly Swayman. So the Bruins are not they're not a goon roster, like like they're not just out there, you know, not executing highly yet at offense. And and and so the Bruins, the Bruins have their strengths outside of being physical, but against Buffalo, they are not the more skilled team, top to bottom, and they're not the fastest team. So it's no secret how Boston's gonna have success in this series. So, with that said, let's start to break down the Bruins and the Sabres. And basically, here are some keys to me for success for the Boston Bruins if they want to beat Buffalo, and maybe some X factors. Uh Jeremy Swayman, to me, he's a key and an X factor. To me, Jeremy Swayman has to be one of, if not the best players in this series for Boston to have success against the Sabres. So if Jeremy Swayman can be what he's capable of being, what we saw him do against Toronto in 2024, and honestly, even Florida that year, the Bruins lost that series, but it wasn't because of a lack of goaltending. So can Jeremy Swayman step up to the moment? Can the Bruins top line? Can they be consistent? Because they really haven't all year. And they've been split up at different times. Now, on an individual basis, David Pasternak had a great year, right? 29 goals, 71 assists for 100 points, his fourth consecutive 100 point season. So David's been excellent. He's the best player in this series. Certainly the best forward, but the best player overall. Morgan Geeky, 39 goals, a great year for Geeky as an individual. But as a trio, Pasternak, Geeky, and Elias Lindholm, which is gonna be a line to start the playoffs, they're a net negative line this year in terms of goals for per 60 versus goals against per 60 Delta. So, you know, if they click, if they can, if they can for the first time all year be a net positive line, then okay, right? That that's great. But the Bruins, that trio is not, it's a big question mark for me. It's a big question mark for me heading into the series. And I have 82 games to tell you why. Not that they were together for all 82 games, but over an 82 game sample, they they were split up many times because they weren't getting a job done. And when they were together, they weren't getting a job done uh consistently enough. They're capable, I think. I know Pasternak and Geeky are capable. Uh, I think Elias Lindholm, we'll see if he can get to another gear in the postseason. There, there are certain guys out there that are they're playoff performers and more so than regular season performers. Maybe Elias Lindholm will be better suited in playoff hockey. I don't know. I'm not banking on it, but that's a big question to me. Because if they aren't clicking right away and they're they're getting outpossessed and outgenerated and outscored, well, Marco Sturm's not gonna be able to keep them together for the whole series, and he'll have to change something. So that's a that that's a that's a big question mark for me heading into the series. Discipline. Discipline's another big one for me. The Boston Bruins are the second most penalized team in the NHL this year, and their penalty kill is 24th in the league. When you consider how fast Buffalo is, how fast they play, how well their their defensemen move the puck, especially their top four defensemen, Buffalo plays a quick game. Okay, so not exactly the type of opponent that's going to uh help Hampus Lynholm mitigate his holding penalties and his stick infractions, right? Like they're a team that if you're if you if you aren't matching them, you're gonna chase them. And when you're chasing the game, you're getting tired, you're getting lazy. When you're tired, and when you're lazy, you start to reach and tug and pull. So I just feel like if the Bruins can find a way to stay disciplined in this series and to eliminate as many stick fouls and holding penalties as possible, obviously there's gonna be penalties both ways. It's the nature of the sport, it's it's how it goes. But can they can they not go on a parade to the penalty box? Because when you do, you're gonna make your penalty kill that much more vulnerable because they're gonna be going out penalty after penalty after penalty, they'll get tired. Your PKers will get tired. The Bruins penalty kill unit this year obviously has not been great. As I said, they're 24th in the league. And what's worse is that the more you spend time on a penalty kill, you're icing out your top players and you're taking away five-on-five ice time from your team, five-on-five rhythm. You're taking away the possibility of drawing penalties of your own, you're putting fatigue on your goaltender. So if the Bruins discipline, which has been better since the Olympic break ended, if the Bruins discipline can be there in this series, then there's a there's a window there for them. Now here's an X factor James Higgins, Fraser Minton, and Marat Husnadinoff. Those three players, their average age is 21. They played together for two games, and uh we all know what a great year Minton had. We all, I think most people appreciate what Husna Dinoff brings. He brings tenacity, he brings energy, he brings responsibility, and he brings a little bit of creativity and skill as well. But when you compare and contrast the lineups, the Sabres have they have more and better depth scoring than the Bruins this year. The Bruins have pretty good depth scoring up and down their lineup for the most part over 82 games, but Buffalo's was even better, right? The uh I want to say Buffalo had seven forwards, seven forwards with 40 or more points. Peyton Krebs had 39 points in 82 games, so he was one point shy of making that list eight. And Josh Norris had 34 points in I want to say 44 games or something like that. But if he played a whole season, he would have probably had somewhere around 60 points. So there is more depth scoring for Buffalo in their top nine and Boston had this year. The Bruins conversely had five forwards with 40 or more points, and then it was Minton and Husadinoff with I want to say 35 and 31 or 32. Now the Bruins fourth line, all the Bruins' fourth liners had over 20 points this year, which is great. But if we're talking 40 plus points, which is like top nine production, Buffalo's top nine produced more consistently than the Bruins top nine. With that said, James Higgins wasn't around all year until game 80, until game 81. So not to put undue pressure on a 19-year-old, but I'm just gonna say, what if James Higgins clicks offensively and him and Minton and Husadinoff become a real third-line scoring threat? That's an X factor. I don't know that that's gonna happen, but if it does, it kind of changes things. How does James Higgins impact the Boston Bruins power play? They didn't have a power play opportunity in either of his two games since being on the team. But I imagine he'll be on the second unit to start. Can he help the Boston Bruins power play? That's kind of been struggling since the Olympic break. So these are all questions, these are all X factors that if if they all go in the Bruins' favor, then I think the Bruins have a pretty good chance of winning the series. That said, Buffalo won the division and they are a damn good team themselves, and I really think that their speed and skill is going to create problems for Boston. So we'll see. We'll see who gets to their game more. I definitely think that over the course of a seven-game series, if the Bruins can wear down Buffalo, if Nikita's Adoroff, if Mark Castleck, if Tanner Janot, if Jonathan Asparo, you know, if if if guys on Boston with that that play with the heaviness, if they can wear down Buffalo's defense, if they can wear down their forwards, then over seven games, that will take its toll. It will take its toll. But I'm here to say that Buffalo is not, they're not gonna lie down, you know, which kind of brings us back to that conversation we were having about the Sabres fans and the media being upset with Marco Sturm's comments because Buffalo's not a team. The Bruins might be a more physically assertive team, but Buffalo's not a team that's afraid of it. And they certainly can play that style as well. They went out at the trade deadline, they added Luke Shen, they added Logan Stanley, um, they brought in Sam Carrick, who actually is going to be out for this series. So that's a blow for Buffalo's fourth line because he can bring a similar element to Buffalo's lineup that Mark Castlick and Tanner Janot bring to Boston's. But Buffalo has, you know, they have some they have some spunk in their lineup. They do. You know, Peyton Krebs, uh, Zach Benson, those are two undersized skill forwards that they're absolute pests. And, you know, Bruins fans, if you aren't really aware of them, you will be pretty soon. So even their smaller guys, they can get feisty. Um, but you know, um Rasmus Dalin, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuck, Jordan Greenway, you know, these guys, uh, Josh Stone, Josh Norris, like these guys there, they have some spunk to them. Jason Zucker. They can play. They can play. So it's gonna be a really entertaining series, I think. It's gonna be a long series. Let's just rattle off some numbers real quick here for these two teams before we give a prediction on who wins this series. Goal differential. Well, first off, head-to-head. The Bruins were three and one against the Sabres this year. So they played four times. Boston won three meetings. Now, two of those came earlier on in the year. Buffalo hadn't really found their stride. I also think they had some injury issues during one of those games. I don't think Dalin played in one of them. Um, but I don't really put a ton of stock into head-to-heads over the course of a regular season because there's all sorts of factors. Sometimes teams are traveling on a back-to-back, sometimes teams are in a funk, sometimes teams just, you know, they haven't hit their stride. So it it's it's different when you're strategizing for somebody over seven games than when you're just coming into town for a night on a on a Wednesday night in February. But for what it's worth, the Bruins, they were three and one against Buffalo this year. Okay. Over 82 games, goal differential. Boston plus 22, 11th in the NHL. Buffalo plus 47, fifth in the NHL. Okay, so I think I think that's that speaks to that speaks to how Buffalo has committed defensively this year. They're they're not they're not the Buffalo Sabres of last year. Lindy Ruff has come in, he's done a great job. He's probably the favorite to win a Jack Adams this year. So probably him and maybe Dan Muse from Pittsburgh. I think Marco Stern should be in a conversation, but Buffalo, they are a well-rounded team. They they they're fast, they check well with their feet, and you know, that's no joke. I mean, plus 47 versus plus 22. That's no joke. Now Boston's 11th in the league with plus 22. That's not bad. That that's good, but it just goes to show Buffalo being fifth in the league at plus 47, they've had a great year. Shots on goal per game. Boston 27, which is 21st in the NHL, Buffalo 28.1, which is 13th. Okay, so Buffalo, they do generate a little bit more shots per game than Boston. And And they prevent more shots against per game because shots against per game, uh, Boston gives up 29.7 shots per game, which is fifth most in the NHL, whereas Buffalo gives up 29.1, which is 10th most. So both teams give up chances. Both teams give up chances, which kind of speaks to why if the Bruins can physically wear Buffalo down over seven games, then maybe Buffalo starts to give up more opportunities than they did in the regular season. Special teams, Boston on the power play, 23.4%. That's ninth in the NHL. Buffalo 19.5%. That's 21st in the NHL. Now, Boston was a top five power play unit all year heading uh until the last month. And they they they they dropped. They were a bottom five power play the last month of the season. So can they get back to what they were? If they if they can, then it then there should be a relatively sizable advantage on the power play for Boston. But at the same time, Buffalo has a ton of skill. I mean, they can roll out Rasmus, Dallin, Tage Thompson on the top unit and and others. Like, man, so Boston's percentage on the year was better than Buffalo's, but I think Buffalo, you know, on paper, they could they could definitely match Boston's power play. Uh on the penalty kill, this is a big advantage for Buffalo. Buffalo's fourth in the league, 81.9% on the kill. Boston, 24th in the NHL, 77% on the kill. When you consider the fact that Boston also is the second highest penalized team with 978 penalty minutes, that's not a good marriage when you're the second most penalized team and you have a bottom, you know, bottom 10 penalty kill. Conversely, Buffalo, they take the seventh most penalties and penalties in the league, but they have the fourth best PK. So when you talk about Buffalo's PK being better, but Boston's power play being better, maybe you can call the special teams a bit of a wash. But again, when you look at how often Boston goes to the box, combined with Buffalo's speed, I have to see it to believe it in terms of Boston having the advantage in the special teams category because their their discipline has to be improved. So this is a long-winded way of me saying, I listen, I think this is a coin flip. I think, I think honestly, six or seven of the eight opening round matchups are possibly coin flips. There's only one that I'm fair there's there's two that I'm fairly confident of the result, but that just goes to speak to the parody. So this Bruins Sabres series is no different. I think it's an absolute coin flip. You know, we had to do an episode, I've been going back and forth, back and forth. I had to do an episode for the skate pod this morning, and both of my co-hosts chose Boston and Seven. And I don't know, maybe I was feeling like a bit of a homer, and I didn't want the show to come across as a bunch of homers if all three of us chose Boston because I chose I I went third. And I could already see, you know, oh, of course, a Boston, a Boston podcast, all three hosts pick Boston. I mean, truly, it is it is kind of a pick'em, so it's not that crazy. Um there's a there's a world where both teams win. There's a world where I can see both teams winning. I just I I think I have more questions about Boston right now than I do Buffalo. My questions for Buffalo are can they withstand the physicality that Boston will play with? I know Sabres fans didn't like the comment from Marco Sturm, but it's it is true. Like going into the corners against Nikita Sodora for seven games, if you're Peyton Krebs or Zach Benson, is not gonna be fun. Like he it's not gonna be fun. Um, you know, Tanner Janot, Mark Caslick, though those guys are gonna be wrecking balls on the four check, especially with it being the playoffs. I know, I know Buffalo has their has their guns too. I know Buffalo can play that way too. But can Buffalo withstand the physicality of playoff hockey? Because it's been a long time since uh, you know, you know, to be fair, there are players on Buffalo that have been to the cup finals. Alex Tuck went to the finals with Vegas, Bowen Byron won a cup with Colorado. Um who was it with uh Ryan McLeod went to the finals with Edmonton. So even though the Sabres as an organization have been to the f have been in the playoffs in over a decade, there are some players with good playoff experience in Buffalo. But generally speaking, their their top players, Rasmus Dalin, Tage Thompson, those guys have not played in the postseason. Um their goaltender, Uko Pekalukinen, has not played in the postseason. When you look at Boston's top players, Charlie McAvoy, David Pastenac, Jeremy Swayman, they have played in the postseason. And McAvoy and Pashtenak a lot. So I think that those, I think the Bruins top players mentally understand the the ups and downs of of playoff hockey and not to get too high or too low. I think the Sabres top players are yet to experience that. Now, maybe they'll be naturals, maybe, maybe they'll maybe experience doesn't matter. But my my my my big two questions for Buffalo is can they can they get to their game over seven games when when the when it's tighter checking and more physical? And can they overcome their lack of experience slash having pressure on them being the favorites? Because their home crowd is going to be going crazy and they're gonna be salivating for a lot of goals and for a lot of success. And if Buffalo comes out slow and they get down a couple of goals to Boston, will that will they start to grab their sticks tighter? Right? Will they start to feel the pressure of the restlessness of a home crowd that's expecting better? So these are little things, these are some questions I have for Buffalo. I'm not saying that they're gonna happen, but these are questions I have heading into the series. Questions I have for Boston, I mentioned earlier. Can they be disciplined? Can Jeremy Swayman be the best goalie in the series? I'm expecting him to be, but can he be? Will he be? Will the Bruins top line of Elias Lindholm, Morgan Geeky, and David Pasternak, will they finally find their stride and be a net positive line? We'll see. It's a question. I'm not questioning David's abilities as an individual or Morgan's goal scoring ability now, but those three as a line, they've been a net negative line all year. Will they all of a sudden become net positive? We'll find out. Obviously, James is a big part of Boston's future, but right now, as a 19-year-old in his third NHL game, how will he handle the playoffs? And how will that kid line of Minton, who's in the enough of Higgins, how will they perform? Can they be an X Factor? So all of these questions for me are unanswered in terms of Boston. And there's just more questions with Boston right now for me than I have for Buffalo. So I really am seesawing between these two teams because I absolutely can see a world where the Bruins win and I can see a world where the Sabres win. I know I said Buffalo on a podcast this morning, but I I reserve the right to change my mind. And I think I'm gonna go Boston and seven. I I I I said Buffalo and seven this morning. I'm gonna flip here. I'm gonna flip-flop here. And one of the reasons I said Buffalo in seven this morning is because the Bruins haven't been a great road team this year. So are they gonna go into Buffalo on the road and win game seven? I you know what? I I think I think I'm gonna pick Boston in seven here. And if I'm wrong, at least I'm wrong with my heart, right? So I'll I'll happily be wrong with this one. Um, but I think it goes either way. It's definitely gonna go six or seven, probably seven. Moving along, let's go to Montreal and Tampa Bay. Now, this series, again, you talk about styles making fights. Same exact thing as the Bruins and the and the Sabres. Different teams, different varying degrees, but Montreal, they have some they have some grit with a guy like Josh Anderson, uh, you know, a um Brendan Gallagher, if he's playing, uh, Arbor Jacke. You know, they they have some they have some guys with some grit, but basically Montreal is all skill and finesse. And they are they're younger, they're smaller at certain positions. Uh Nick Suzuki is not the biggest guy. Cole Caulfield, not the biggest guy. Um, Lane Hudson, not the biggest guy. So when you compare that to Tampa Bay, I just think that you're talking about a young skill team in Montreal that's going up against a bigger veteran team in Tampa Bay. There are a couple of notable injuries right now, one for Tampa and one for Montreal. Or Tampa is not an injury, it's it's an absence, though. Victor Hedman has been gone for a personal leaf of absence for quite some time. And to my knowledge, he's not going to be in a lineup for Tampa Bay. So that's a big loss for Tampa in this series against Montreal. Montreal right now is without Noah Dobson. So I don't know if Dobson's out for a while or if he's day-to-day, but those are two key guys on the respective back ends. I think the the headman loss is bigger for Tampa. So by the numbers here, Montreal plus 27 goal differential on the year. That's ninth in the NHL. Tampa Bay plus 59, second in the NHL. Shots per game. Montreal 26.3, which is 24th. Kind of surprising. That did surprise me a bit because they they are such a highly skilled team that they only generate the 24th most shots in the NHL this year. Tampa Bay, they generate 28.1 shots per game. That's 14th in the NHL. So Tampa Bay generates more than Montreal does. And Tampa Bay also prevents more per game than Montreal. Tampa Bay gives up 26.7 shots per game, which is 25th in the NHL. And Montreal gives up 27.8 shots per game, which is 15th. So it's 25th fewest for Tampa Bay. On the power play, Montreal 23.1%. They're 10th in the league. Tampa Bay is 20.7. That's 17th in the NHL. That's shockingly low for Tampa Bay when you have Nikita Kucharoff. Um, and you're 17th in the NHL. Darren Radish has had a great year for Tampa Bay, too, on the back end. So um that is a bit surprising to me, especially with Kuchoff and Gensel and Hegel. And on the penalty kill, though, Tampa Bay has the far better PK. They're third, clicking at 82.6% kill rate. Montreal 78.2%, which is 18th in the NHL. And then Tampa Bay is the most penalized team. So when it comes to the Bruins, they say hold my beer. Tampa Bay is the most penalized team in the NHL with over 1,200 penalty minutes. But as I said, they have the third best PK. So that's the big difference between the Bruins and the Lightning is both teams are heavily penalized, but Tampa Bay has one of the best PKs in the league. Boston has, you know, among the bottom third. So at the end of the day, I see this one going either direction. I ultimately question Cole Caulfield had 50 goals this year. He's a small, undersized forward. Will he be the same scoring threat in a seven-game series against a bigger, experienced Tampa Bay team with Andre Vasilevsky in net over seven games? Can Lane Hudson do what he does in the regular season when Tampa Bay is game planning for him and strategizing form and being physical on him? So I personally like Montreal's forward group one through 12 better. I think Tampa Bay has the better top six, and they have the best player in the series in Nikita Kucharov. I can see Montreal winning a series, but ultimately I think they have the nod in goaltending, and I think they have the best player in the series. And I do think that their size and their experience, to me, I have to give them the nod. And if Montreal wins, it won't surprise me. But I will, out of respect to Tampa Bay and what they've done and what they've accomplished, I'll give them the nod here. And simply put, from Montreal, I need to see it to believe it. I have to see it from them. So I could pick them, but I'd be probably just kind of banking on their youth and speed and skill. It's a different game in the postseason. They very well could win the series. They very well could. I think Victor Headman's a big loss for Tampa Bay. And I don't I don't love Tampa Bay's bottom six. I really don't. But there's more to it than that. And Tampa Bay deserves the benefit of the doubt right now, in my mind. So I'll go Tampa Bay in seven. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, two teams that have the same amount of points. So the Battle of Pennsylvania is back at it alive and well, and I can't wait for the series either. Philadelphia has some good young players. Um, you know, they have um Porter Martin, who they just brought in from Michigan State. He's their sixth overall pick from last year's draft. They have Mechkov, who's a younger winger. That is, you know, he's trying to find his game. You have Trevor Ziegris, you have Jamie Dryz on the back end, Cam York, you have Travis Keneckney, you have Owen Tippett, Sean Katurier is a good veteran leader. You know, um, there are some other guys, Tyson Forester. So I I like I like a lot that Philly has to offer, and you you kind of compare that to Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh's kind of in in in some ways, with some players, they're the opposite, right? They have the they have the Sidney Crosby, they have the Chris Leting, the Eric Carlson, the Evgeny Malkin, uh Ricard Raquel. They have guys that have been there and done that. Uh Brian Rust, right? So they have a lot of experience on their side. They do have some young guys too, like Ben Kindle. Um, you know, um I like Chinekoff. Uh Chinikoff they got from Columbus. So, you know, Pittsburgh has some youth too, but they're obviously more cut from the veteran cloth than Philadelphia is. Um, so both teams finish with 98 points, but a lot of the underlying numbers to me favor Pittsburgh. For example, goal differential, Pittsburgh plus 25, Philly plus seven. Shots per game, Pittsburgh 28.6, 10th in the NHL, Philly 25.5, 28th in the NHL. So Philly doesn't generate that much. Shots against per game, Philadelphia, 25.5. That's 29th fewest. So Philadelphia doesn't generate a ton, but they also don't give up a ton. So hats off to them there. Pittsburgh, 27.4, which is 21st fewest. So not as good as Philly, but still they're one of the top, they're they're one of the best 10-11 teams in the league at uh eliminating chances. Special teams is where Pittsburgh really runs away with the analytics here. Philadelphia is dead last on the power play in the NHL at 15.7%. Pittsburgh is seventh, clicking at 24.1%. So Pittsburgh with the clear advances on the power play. Again, Philly has talent on their power play, and I think the addition of Port-Amarton netfront helps them a lot. Trevor Ziegers can zip it around, right? Travis Connecticut is a good player. Um, you know, so that Philly has talent, but you know, over 82 games, the numbers, you know, you are what the numbers say you are. I will just notate here that Port de Martin not being there all year, had he been there all year as a net front guy, maybe they're not 32nd, maybe they're 25th, right? But still, Pittsburgh with the decisive edge and the power play. And on the penalty kill, Philadelphia, 22nd in the league, 77.6%. And Pittsburgh is sixth at 81.4. So Pittsburgh has two top 10 special teams units. Good for them, right? Um, so ultimately, I just think that Pittsburgh is gonna find a way around the margins to get the win here. I think they have more experience, they they they're they're a better team analytically, and they they have home advantage, home ice advantage for what that's worth. So I think it's gonna be a good series. I'm gonna go Pittsburgh and six. And then for our final Eastern Conference playoff series prediction and preview, we're gonna go to Ottawa versus Carolina. Now, this is a series you have Carolina, who is first place in the Eastern Conference. They're first place in the Metro Division, so they draw Ottawa as wildcard two. 113 points in the year for Carolina, 99 for Ottawa. Bit of a discrepancy there, but I'll tell you the numbers would tell you that these two teams, in a lot of ways, they're closer than that would make you think. So let's start with gold differential. Ottawa plus 32, seventh in the NHL. Carolina plus 56, that's third. Okay. So Ottawa's top top 10. So is Carolina, but Carolina's top three. So advantage Carolina there. Shots per game. Carolina is second in the league. Ottawa's ninth. So once again, Ottawa's sitting there saying, hey, we're a top 10 team in the league statistically, but then Carolina's saying, yeah, we're top three. See ya. Shots against per game. Again, here's Ottawa allowing 24.4 shots per game. That's 30 fewest, 30th fewest in the NHL out of 32 teams. You want to wager, guess who number 32 is? It's Carolina. They give up the fewest shots per game at 23.9. So every metric I've said so far, Ottawa's been a top 10 team. Obviously, the shots against the lower you're ranked the better you are, right? So it's not saying that Carolina is the 32nd worst, it's saying that they give up the 32nd fewest. Um, so that's a good thing. On the power play, Ottawa, eighth power play in the league. Carolina, fourth. So Ottawa can't win for losing when it comes to these metrics. They're a top 10 team in every metric so far, but so is Carolina, and Carolina is just that much better than them. On the penalty kill is where Carolina really has an advantage here. Ottawa has the 29th penalty kill in the league. Carolina has the 11th best. So the numbers here would tell you that Carolina, you know, is just slightly better than Ottawa throughout the course of the regular season. And then on the penalty kill, they're much better. And then as far as discipline goes, they're also more disciplined. They are the 26th fewest penalized team the Hurricanes are, and Ottawa is the eighth most penalized team. So Carolina's more disciplined, their special teams are that much better. And then at five on five, they're both similar, but Carolina's just a little bit better. Now, I think the X factor here is also goaltending because Carolina's goaltending has been Jekyll and Hyde this year. Ottawa's goaltending has been Jekyll and Hyde. And, you know, it's been a story off the ice too with Linus Almark's mental health. So I really I like both of these teams. I mean, obviously, I like I said last episode, I think Carolina's kind of boring. Um, they don't have a lot of superstars, they're not a they're not a fun brand of hockey necessarily, but you have to respect what they do, and and they have a lot of good players. I I think that Sebastian Ajo, Andre Svechnikov, Seth Jar. Logan Stankhoven, Nikolai Ehlers. You know, they Jordan Stahl's a good veteran, center iceman up the middle in their middle six. Taylor Hall can still play. Um, Jordan Martinhook can play pretty well. So Carolina, they're not the sexiest team up front, but they have guys that can contribute. And on the back end, you know, they have Jacob Slavin leads them defensively. I think he's the I think Jacob Slavin and Gustav Forzling for Florida, I would say are the two best defensive defensemen in the NHL. I mean, flip a coin, who you want to say is first. But he has a good supporting cast. Um, they have the young Russian on the back end. Uh is it Nikishan? I want F I might be saying his last name wrong. But he's a he's a good young defenseman, strong kid. Um, you have Keandre Miller back there. Shane Goss is fair. Um, you know, Jay Chatfield, they have Chatfield too. So yeah, they're they they have a good blue line, but the the Senators, I like the Senators team a lot too. Uh, you know, Tim Stutzla, Brady Kachuk, Drake Batterson, uh, Claude Giroux, Dylan Cousins. I like Dylan Cousins a lot. You know, they they they have they there's others too. And then on the back end, you have Jake Sanderson, Thomas Shabbat, Jordan Spence. You know, I there's a lot to like for both these teams. I feel like Ottawa might win this series, but I'm just gonna go off of I know how Carolina constantly plays. They're a very consistent team, whereas Ottawa can be a little Jekyll and hide at times. And I'll say Holm Ice plays a factor here. I'll go Carolina in seven. So those are my four picks in the Eastern Conference. I got I got Boston. Ask me tomorrow who I have. I might say Buffalo again. Right now, I have Boston, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Carolina in the East. And then moving along to the Western Conference, we have Colorado versus the LA Kings. Now, Colorado is far and away the best team in the NHL this year, 121 points. The Kings, they kind of limped into the postseason with 90 points. And it's also worth noting that Los Angeles is without Kevin Fiala and Andre Kusmenko to start the playoffs. Certainly, I think they're both out for a longer duration of time. So though though those injuries hurt LA if they wanted any chance of upsetting Colorado, which I just quite frankly think is not going to come close to happening. This to me is a series where it kind of if there's gonna be a sweep in the opening round, it's gonna be this one. But I will I will I will give the Kings credit because they do have some guys that have been there and there's a lot of pride in that room. They do have some good players, so maybe they sneak a game out of this series. But again, look at the goal differential here plus 99 for uh for Colorado. That's first in the NHL. LA minus 22. Okay, so that's clearly uh a no-brainer there. Colorado just they they they're they're good at pretty much everything except for one category, which very much surprises me. But shots per game, they're first in the NHL. Uh LA is 17th, shots against per game, Colorado gives up the 28th fewest. Um LA is okay, 22nd fewest. Power play percentage, Avalanche or the 27th power play in the NHL. That shocks me. 27 out of 32. When you have Nathan McKinnon and Marty Natchez and Kale McCarr, just to start with, I don't know how you could possibly be the 17th power play or 27th power play in the league, but they are. Um, the Kings have the 17th, uh 28th power play in the league with uh 17% uh success rate. Penalty kill Colorado first penalty kill in the league, clicking at 84.6%, and they are the least penalized team. So they have the discipline and the penalty kill to go along with it. Meanwhile, the Kings have one of the worst penalty kills in the league, 30th overall, 74.6%. So if Colorado's power play is gonna have success, it's gonna be against the one of the worst power plays uh penalty kills in the league. So I'm gonna go abs and five here. I'm not gonna overthink it. You know, I kind of wanted to say a sweep, but you know, I I have too much respect for for these NHL teams. That you know, I'm I'm I'm probably never gonna predict a clean sweep. So I'll go abs and five. Next we have Vegas versus Utah. This one's interesting to me, but I'm gonna go Vegas and seven. I think both teams are pretty close in a lot of areas. No William Carlson for for Vegas, and no Barrett Hayden or Jack McBain for Utah, at least to start. Um but Vegas plus 15 goal differential, that's 13th in the NHL. Utah plus 28, that's eighth. Shots per game. Vegas is eighth in the NHL, Utah's 20th, shots against per game. Vegas is 31st, so they give it the 31st fewest shots per game. Utah's pretty close behind him at 27th. So both teams mitigate chances against. The special teams here is a big bit of a difference, though. You have Vegas with the sixth best power play and the seventh best penalty kill. Utah has the 18th best power play and the 19th best penalty kill. So the clear edge in special teams to Vegas, and Vegas is also the second least penalized team in the NHL. So when you when you talk about the whole mice advantage that Vegas has, and you talk about their experience and their high-end skill, even though Utah has a lot of skill themselves too, but when you talk about experience, high-end skill, whole ice advantage, and special teams, I'm gonna go Vegas and seven here. So I have Colorado and Vegas in the West so far. Let's go over to Edmonton versus Anaheim. Edmonton was second in the Pacific, Anaheim third in the Pacific, 93 points for Edmonton, 92 for Anaheim. And, you know, this one comes down to me, Anaheim's a really good young team. I think they're really promising, but I just don't think you you beat Connor McDavid in the first round. I will say there's reasons why Anaheim could win, and it starts in goal. Lucas Dostel is far and away better than Tristan Jari, and Edmonton, just for the life of them, can never figure out their goaltending. Um but ultimately Anaheim's numbers aren't that impressive. They are a minus 15 on the year, goal differential. That's that's 19th in the NHL. Edmonton, middle of the pack, just a little bit better. Uh plus 13, so that's 14th in the league. Shots per game. Edmonton's fourth in the NHL, Anaheim's third. So Anaheim does generate slightly more shots per game than Edmonton. Shots against per game. Edmonton gives up 27 26.7, Anaheim 28.4. So Edmonton does give up less per game than Anaheim. On the power play here, we start to see some some some big differences here. Edmonton has the top power play in the NHL, clicking at 30.6%, which makes sense when you have Evan Bouchard, Conor McDavid, Leon Dreisidel out there, uh, and Ryan Nugent Hopkins. Um, Anaheim is 23rd on the penalty on the power play. Penalty kill, both teams are kind of, yeah. I mean, Edmonton 20th in the league, Anaheim 27th. So at the end of the day, I have Edmonton and six. I just think that their star power is going to be you know too much for Anaheim to handle. Although I think Anaheim has a lot of young core pieces that are going to be a problem for a long time. When we're talking about Leo Carlson and Cutter Gautier, uh Beckett Seneca is a great young player, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, um, Jackson Lacomb on the back end. They brought in John Carlson at the trade deadline from Washington. Uh Radko Goodis is not going to be a fun guy to play against for seven games. So uh, you know, they brought in Chris Kreider, they have Jacob Truba. There's Alex Calorne. There is a lot of experience over there in Anaheim. And I again, I could see Edmonton bowing out in the first round if Tristan Jari is just an absolute ATM machine and bank that's always open. But I'm gonna go with the top player in the world and Connor McDavid getting through for the first round of the playoffs. And then we'll finish things off here with Dallas versus Minnesota. And to me, boy, you have two teams that could go to the Stanley Cup final if they weren't playing each other um in the first round, right? I mean, obviously they'd have to meet in the conference finals in that situation or some somewhere later on along the line, but both of these teams are capable of going on a run. And I think that right now, I look at these two teams, and Dallas is just a little bit banged up right now. If both teams were completely healthy, I think I might go Dallas. Right now I'm inclined to go Minnesota because Dallas has no Tyler Sagan, who you know isn't a top-line player at this point in his career, but he's still a good middle six guy. Um, I believe they're gonna be without Miro Heiskinen to start the series. I think he's day-to-day, but he might play game one, so maybe he plays, but right now he's listed as day-to-day. And then uh Rupe hints is out to start the series. So Minnesota can get a jump on on Dallas because they're they're a bit banged up right now. But these both these two teams, wildly impressive. Obviously, Minnesota hit another gear when they brought in Quinn uh Quinn Hughes from Vancouver, and they got a ton of skill over there, a ton of speed and skill. I love their blue line with Quinn Hughes and Brock Faber and you know Jonas Brodeen and Jacob Middleton, um, Jared Spurgeon. Like I I love I love Minnesota's back end. And up front, they have a ton of speed and skill too. And you know, you have Karill Caprizov, one of the best swingers in the game. You have Matt Boldy, an emerging star, and and he really burst onto the scene in four nations and certainly the Olympics. Uh, you know, Matt Zuccarello is a great player, uh, been around for a long time. Uh, Joel Ericksonek is a good player. You know, they they they have some talent over there, Ryan Hartman. Um yeah, it's it's gonna be it's gonna be it's gonna be a close, close hot fought series. Uh goal differential, Dallas fourth in the NHL, plus 53. Minnesota sixth at plus 32 shots per game. This is interesting. Dallas is 30th in the NHL in shots per game, 25.3. That's shocking. That is shocking when you consider uh how much talent that Dallas has. Minnesota, seventh in the NHL, shots per game, shots against per game. Uh Dallas, 26th, fewest, Minnesota ninth. So Minnesota does give up their chances, their fair share. On the power play, Dallas is second, Minnesota's third. On the penalty kill, Dallas is 13th, Minnesota's 16th. So both of these teams are pretty good, they're pretty close. They're they're they're both very formidable opponents. Um, you know, I talked about the players that Dallas might be without, but you know, the players that they are with, you know, you have um Miko Ranton in Wyatt Johnston, Matthew Shane, um, you know, Jamie Benn is still a serviceable, you know, middle six guy. Um, you know, they they they they they have a lot of talent over there. Jason Robertson, right? One of the highest scorers in the league this year. So Dallas has a lot of talent. If they were fully healthy, I would pick Dallas. I need to see how healthy they are. Because if they're without Meryl Heiskinen for any decent stretch of this series, I think it's I think it's I think it's a lot to ask of Dallas to beat this Minnesota team because Minnesota is stacked. Minnesota is is equally stacked as Dallas, in my opinion. It's close. Um, but even without Merrow Heiskinen, you still have a pretty good blue line with Thomas Harley and Essa Lindell, uh Ilya Lebushkin. They brought in uh Tyler Myers at the at the deadline. You know, but Heiskinen is the he's the engine that makes that that blue line tick, though. So because of the health issues on Dallas's blue line right now and up front, I'm gonna say Minnesota wins this one in seven games. But if Dallas can be can be healthier, maybe I'd go Dallas. But because that's not the case right now, I'm gonna go Minnesota in seven. So those are my picks. Those are my picks. We have Boston, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and then we have Colorado, Vegas, Edmonton, and Minnesota. So I'm sure I'll be wrong. Uh more than I'm right. Uh I look forward to these games, though. I can't wait. I love playoff hockey. We all love playoff hockey, and I just think that these playoffs are gonna be so fun. I think that there, I don't really recall many postseasons in years past where there's been this many pick'ems, in my opinion. Usually you have a couple more favorites, heavy favorites, and I just don't see it right now. Uh, you know, I don't think there's a single series in the Eastern Conference that's a lock for anybody. A single one. I think Boston, Buffalo is gonna be an absolute grind fest. I think Montreal, Tampa is a pick'em. I think Philly, Pittsburgh. I think that's less of a pick'em. I do like Pittsburgh a little bit more than Philly, despite them having the same amount of points in the standings, all those underlying numbers I mentioned. But again, there are intangibles. Like Philly hasn't made the playoffs in a long time, and they're gonna they're gonna be jacked up, right? So there's there's that there's that energy and that youth and excitement for Philly. Um, Carolina, Ottawa, I think is a pick'em. Out west, Colorado, LA, not a pick'em. I mean, that would be a colossal upset if Colorado lost that series. Anaheim, um, Edmonton, uh I could see Anaheim winning, but I wouldn't call it a pick'em. I just think that they're, you know, they have two of the best players in the world, and I just see them getting through the first round. Dallas, Minnesota, if both teams are healthy, it's a pick'em. I still think it's a pick'em as it currently stands. So, but because of the lack of health for Dallas right now, I'm gonna say Minnesota and then uh Vegas, Utah, that's a pick'em, I think. Um, so it's gonna be a really fun spring, and we will be here to to cover it the whole way. Thank you all very much for listening. Enjoy your weekend, enjoy some playoff hockey, and I will talk to you soon.