Two Big GOP Meetings, Gambling Situations Monitored, and the Cesar Chavez Fallout - Episode 21

The guys give the lowdown on two (one, not so) top secret meetings involving Texas Republicans, read the tea leaves on gambling, and discuss the Cesar Chavez scandal fallout.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

One of the f I think the first one, or at least the one that I heard early on that stuck with me throughout childhood, was uh uh Chuck Norris was walking through the Amazon rainforest, got bit by uh uh poisonous snake, and after three long days of excruciating pain, the snake died. Morning, everybody. Brad Johnson, Jonathan Richie here again for another episode of the Texas Bullpen Podcast. Richie, how's it going?

SPEAKER_01 0:34

It is going splendid. The dirt mountain range on Congress Ave has gone just as quickly as it came. Uh I'd say ri RIP, but I don't want it to uh I was honestly surprised how well they got all the dirt off. Like, it was pretty good, pretty impressive. But yeah, uh South by is I guess largely over.

SPEAKER_00 0:59

I think it's last night was closing, so it is done done.

SPEAKER_01 1:03

Some people suggest it's it's now it's now closed. Unconfirmed reports. Many people are saying uh it was an interesting time for us. We're not, I guess, cool enough to understand what South by Southwest is, but aside from like a direction.

SPEAKER_00 1:19

Um it's a pretty confusing direction.

SPEAKER_01 1:22

Even then it is indeed if you're already going south, west, it's just like it's just southwest at that point.

SPEAKER_00 1:31

Yes.

SPEAKER_01 1:32

So I don't know. Well these things have this what's taken up a lot of our mind space this past week.

SPEAKER_00 1:39

A mystery we'll have to get to the bottom of at another date. Next year.

SPEAKER_01 1:42

Um there's always next year, just like the Dallas Cowboys.

SPEAKER_00 1:45

Yeah. Programming note, we uh will be off next week. No podcast next week. No podcast. I will be in San Diego with my dad watching the opening series for the Detroit Tigers against the San Diego Padres. I'm very excited for that.

SPEAKER_01 2:00

That's cool. Thanks for the invite.

SPEAKER_00 2:02

Yeah, yeah. You think I wanted to see you? I well, I specifically wanted a break from seeing your podcast.

SPEAKER_01 2:06

Yeah, I guess that is the point of vacation.

SPEAKER_00 2:08

Yeah. Uh so we will not have a podcast that week. We also won't have a daily bowl that Friday. I think we'll still have Scoville on Saturday morning. We'll schedule in advance. Um just FYI on that.

SPEAKER_01 2:20

I'm not even I'm not even persuaded we won't have a daily bowl. We very well might. I don't know. Let's see what the news is.

SPEAKER_00 2:26

We'll see.

SPEAKER_01 2:27

I'm gonna force you to write it.

SPEAKER_00 2:28

I will be while you're at the ballpark. At the ballpark on Thursday afternoon.

SPEAKER_01 2:32

Who are they playing?

SPEAKER_00 2:33

I just said this. Yeah. What which baseball team resides in San Diego, Richie?

SPEAKER_01 2:39

Well, no, no. Who are they playing?

SPEAKER_00 2:42

The Tigers.

SPEAKER_01 2:43

Yeah, who are they? Oh, right, right. I'm a Tigers fan.

SPEAKER_00 2:48

Sorry, you and your You and sports just don't mesh well together.

SPEAKER_01 2:52

All these foreign names, you know. Detroit. Detroit. You should pronounce it Detroit. Um, there's a get that fringe stuff out of here.

SPEAKER_00 3:03

So Detroit is uh also known as Hockey Town. Detroit Red Wings are one of the original six NHL teams. I know hockey is also foreign to you, but since it was a big theme over the last month or so with the U.S. winning Olympic gold, I think you can stand to listen to a bit of this. But um Detroit was is one of the greatest NHL teams of all time, one of the greatest programs. Um they have won, I forget how many Stanley Cups, but a lot. Would you sort of really good? I'll get to the point. They're really good at their figure scale. Uh the announcer, longtime announcer for uh the Red Wings would call Detroit Detroit.

SPEAKER_01 3:46

Detroit on all the broadcasts, which is just the type of mispronunciation I would do, but very it's like northern the northerner version of you.

SPEAKER_00 3:54

Yeah. There are dozens of us out there. Also, uh news broke today that uh sad news that Chuck Norris passed away, the Texas icon.

SPEAKER_01 4:06

Walker, Texas Ranger.

SPEAKER_00 4:08

So uh actual RIP to him. Um it's uh yeah, he's uh a legend.

SPEAKER_01 4:15

A lot of the people in Texas politics knew him. He was pretty involved. Yeah. I'd met him a couple times at some events back in the day.

SPEAKER_00 4:21

So he had been, I think it was either at various points over the last few cycles, he had visited the legislat the the Capitol and uh made the rounds there, and of course been brought up to take pictures with the lieutenant governor and the speaker on the diocese. Um but of course his legend will live on in the form of Chuck Norris jokes.

SPEAKER_01 4:44

Yes. A tried and true tradition for young American men.

SPEAKER_00 4:48

One of the f I think the first one, or at least the one that I heard early on that stuck with me throughout childhood, was uh uh Chuck Norris was walking through the Amazon rainforest, got bit by a uh poisonous snake, and after three long days of excruciating pain, the snake died. That's a good one.

SPEAKER_01 5:08

They're all just they're all just good. Very, very classic. Um so yeah, very sad to see see the news this morning.

SPEAKER_00 5:16

It was pretty sudden, too. He was checked into the hospital, I think, yesterday on Thursday, and then had passed away by Friday morning. So very sad. Yep. R.I.P. to him. Um but let's get into the slate of topics. Um I think it's safe to say the biggest story across the state this week was the Cesar Chavez allegations and the report published by the New York Times that then cascaded into a bunch of different uh political effects uh in Texas particularly. Can you run us through the details of of this?

SPEAKER_01 5:55

Uh well uh Cesar Chavez, obviously kind of a well-known figure in the labor movement, very much an icon for a lot of kind of uh left-wing activism, a lot of street names after him, a lot of statues, farmers worker movement, stuff like that. And then this bombshell report came out, which I think can't actually like be like you can't actually call this one a bombshell. It's a little overused sometimes, but this one really did send shock waves uh of just very credible allegations of uh sexual harassment, assault, including with minors, um, throughout his career, uh, including from other major leaders in the movement who had stayed silent for years. And so it was pretty immediate after that. There was very little like, oh, debate of maybe let's look into this more. Everybody was just like, okay, we're canceling all of the Cesar Chavez Day stuff. We're gonna start like I've seen pictures of not necessarily in Texas, but other places, I think, uh putting tarps over the statues and stuff. I mean, just an immediate uh cancellization of this guy who's been a very premier figure in kind of the orthodoxy of labor movement, uh discussion and in memory and history, uh just being wiped away very quickly.

SPEAKER_00 7:27

Well, and obviously he was a huge figure in organized labor, particularly for uh the United Farm workers. Um and uh you know that we learned about Cesar Chavez in school up in Ohio. And so, you know, he was more than just a Texas figure, but it it had played largely in Texas, uh California.

SPEAKER_01 7:53

Yeah, border agricultural states. There was a lot of, I guess, memory of it.

SPEAKER_00 7:58

Trevor Burrus, Jr. And and you know, we saw uh the governor come out and say the state's not going to observe Cesar Chavez Day anymore. Um, you know, politically speaking, that's easy for Republicans to come out and condemn a guy they already didn't like, broadly speaking. Um it's it's pretty it's not like they're going out on a limb here. The more interesting side of this, I thought, was uh, first of all, the preemptive reactions by labor unions, by including, I think, the the um UFW, uh, but other groups as well. Uh they got wind of the New York Times report, which is usually how this goes. Uh, when something like this is about to hit um people start reacting, and they got out in front of the report and canceled some marches that are named after him. Um and then we saw Democratic officials come out and uh condemn this, of course. Like the these were some horrific allegations. And you know, if you start in like the third paragraph, it it uh it's already in full swing the the slate of allegations against him. Um, you know, it starts off in that third paragraph uh talking about this woman who was 13 when Chavez started summoning her for sexual relations, um, and which is as being a minor rape. Yeah. And so um it didn't really slow down throughout the entire report. And so you can read it on the New York Times. I think don't think it's paywalled. So if that is something that uh you feel the need to read, um it's there and available, and you should go read it. But um, you know, we're gonna be seeing the the effects of this for a long time. There's Cesar Chavez uh is it is it Boulevard in Austin? Um we saw some people listing out all the streets named across the state after Cesar Chavez. All of that's gonna get renamed for sure. The Austin City Council's already working, already moving something to do it here in the city. Um, but I'm sure that's happening all over the state. Uh and uh a lot of this stuff's gonna be undone. Also, elementary schools are named after him. Um so this really rocked particularly uh Democratic politics uh this week. And um Republicans uh has commented as well. We saw you reported in Daily Bowl this morning that the State Board of Education is moving to Nix all references and the TIKS to Cesar Chavez. Anything notable about that that stuck out to you?

SPEAKER_01 10:46

Yeah, I mean uh the the chairman sent a letter to the Texas Education Commissioner, Mike Marath, instructing him or requesting that he uh revise because the the social studies curriculum goes through regular revisions, and so they're in the midst of that right now. And Cesar Chavez uh was included in those, and so it was after the various work groups collaborate, so it's kind of in one of its more final forms already, and so the chairman was like, hey, we should probably take him out of the social studies curriculum. So uh I don't think uh Chairman uh or Commissioner Murrath has responded to that letter yet, but I would presume that that's probably gonna happen. Um again, because for Republicans it's not really any there's no political cost skin off of their back on it. Um to condemn somebody they already didn't really like generally. But yeah, all of the I mean you had uh you had Maut come out very early.

SPEAKER_00 11:47

Yep. Ramon Romero issued a statement. Uh well, it wasn't just R Ramon, it was the whole executive board, right? Um and they said they're going to push the lead the effort to um rescind all the Cesar Chavez themed things in the state, including the the day of celebration um or the holiday, I guess. Um the other th I think it's worth noting also that it a lot of this stuff had been talked about i for decades. As as rumors, as um uh yeah, as rumors, and uh if not more subst substantive rumors. It just had never been all corroborated by so much uh on the record testimony. Yeah. And that was really one of the big things is um was it Huerta? Is that her name? Uh uh I forget her first name, but she came out and she gave an interview and detailed uh what Chavez had done to her for years. So um this was basically the the damn breaking on what everybody in those circles knew had already been uh had already happened, and a lot of the fallout has been about these people involved in these organizations not not explicitly hiding the this stuff, but pretty close to it in order to protect the reputation of Chavez himself and the movement. Yep.

SPEAKER_01 13:19

So yeah, pretty pretty big national story there. It is interesting, you know, because people always are trying to read like the uh the eulogy on kind of the institutional national media and things like that. But then you always have one of these big major stories that becomes the I mean thing the the rock dropping into the pond that has sends the shockwaves across the country, you know. There's still obviously a lot of punch left in those big uh media uh establishments, I guess we would say. So it's always fun to see those types of stories and you know realize that the old uh the old dog's still got some bite.

SPEAKER_00 14:04

Well, yeah, I mean the the New York Times is doing very well financially. One of the few media companies, especially large media companies across the country.

SPEAKER_01 14:13

New York Times and Texas bullpen.

SPEAKER_00 14:16

Yeah, one and the same.

SPEAKER_01 14:18

Hi everyone. We'd like to thank the sponsor of today's podcast, the Lowy Law Firm. For over 20 years, Adam Lowy has helped injured Texans recover and heal. From car accidents to dog bites, Adam Lowy is there to help and gets results. Go to LowyLawfirm.com to find out more and get a free consultation. Adam, of course, is very well known on Twitter for his commentary and observations on Texas politics, so be sure to give him a follow as well. Thanks to our sponsor, the Lowy Law Firm.

SPEAKER_00 14:49

Um Okay, so let's go on to there were two meetings this week that were of particular interest. Um one of them we broke entirely here at Texas Bullpen. Um the other one we I I don't think I saw any reporting on what was said inside until we did, until we said it. So first off, there was what many people are calling hashtag nerd summit.

SPEAKER_01 15:16

That's what uh that's what the running name is.

SPEAKER_00 15:18

Yeah. And uh which is an app title.

SPEAKER_01 15:21

Like you look at the list of folks and it's like, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 15:24

Absolutely. Bunch of data guys. So it was a nerds. It was a gathering of When's the jock summit? The jock summit. I think we call that the legislature.

SPEAKER_01 15:34

Yeah, probably. Which is sad. Um jocks just ain't what they used to be.

SPEAKER_00 15:40

No, no, certainly not. So the top or a group of top Republican pollsters, data guys, some consultants gathered in Austin this week. It was Tuesday, and they were gathering in order to basically put all the brains together, assess the situation so that it can be monitored later by all of us. By us, yeah. And uh basically come up with an agreed-upon picture uh for the majority party in the state on what November holds or what it could hold at the moment. The Republicans in this state, you know, Democrat Party as well, rife with factions that can't stand each other most of the time. And they're in that, it's hard to get everyone on the same page because you have a clear majority and a clear minority. If you're in a purple state, that causes incentives. That doesn't mean that everyone's singing kumbaya all the time, but that incentivizes the two parties to solidify because otherwise they'll lose to the other one, right? Everyone needs to get on the same page as a party in states like that. Here, that's usually not the case. But with what looks like is coming in November, and this was part of what they were assessing, what is how bad is this cycle going to be for Republicans in the state, particularly in this case, but across the country generally? And they were putting their their um presentations together with that in mind, trying to illustrate a picture so that then they can go to all the various consultants, um, you know, the the top state leaders, factions in the Republican parties and be like, look, guys, we've got to lock in for November.

SPEAKER_01 17:42

And you know there was a very interesting conversation we had the other day with a gentleman uh who was explaining, like, you know, if you go back, because everybody's trying to compare this wave to 18 and the beta wave, right? And there's a lot of different comparisons that can be drawn and not drawn about the differences between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the differences nationally. You know, obviously this is the midterm of a Trump administration. That you know, 2018 was as well. But one of the things that was highlighted to us was apparently a lot of the Republicans were surprised at how big the backlash was in 18. They kind of weren't expecting it, is what we were told. But they're definitely everybody's on edge right now in the Republicans. There's a kind of five alarm fire going on and everybody's trying to circle the wagons almost.

SPEAKER_00 18:44

So, you know, take it with a grain of salt, it's full of nonsense most of the time. But the sentiment has been populated that, oh, it this Democrats are are just pining for a blue Texas that'll never happen again, and there's just they'll be uh like they'll be crying wolf about the state flipping, um, and then we'll just get to November and see the uh Republicans dominate once again, like we've seen over the last few cycles. But if you talk to the guys on the inside, the guys in this meeting, the consultants that are running these campaigns, the state leaders, they know this is not good for them. This is gonna be a very tough cycle, and there's a chance. How big is it? Who knows? But there's a chance that James Talarico wins that Senate race.

SPEAKER_01 19:39

Yeah. Well, and the whole thing of like people being like, oh, it's just a Democrats crying wolf. Well, the whole point of the story is that eventually the wolf comes. And is it this cycle or is it because you know there is nothing guaranteed in politics, right? For uh better part of a century, people were like, Texas will never go red. And then it did. Yep. And then for most people kind of engaged in like politics today, you can't remember a Texas that wasn't red. You know? But things are always able to change.

SPEAKER_00 20:14

Things are cyclical, it's just a question of how long those cycles are. Yeah. Right. So um you can read the full report in Daily Bowl on from Wednesday on this.

SPEAKER_01 20:23

But this is another time to plug. Yes. If you're not a subscriber, you are missing out on these inside meetings, these backdoor discussions, these smoke-filled rooms. At least the rooms that I'm in will be. Every room you're in is smoke-filled. There's something about tradition. Um and so please go to textaplepin.com, subscribe.$200 a year, you get these daily updates. I mean, re reporting you don't get anywhere else, and uh you get to fund our lavish lifestyles.

SPEAKER_00 20:57

So reporting from reporters who know ball.

SPEAKER_01 20:59

Yeah, we know ball. That's what people say. If you go to the reviews of this very podcast, you'll find people many people say that we know ball.

SPEAKER_00 21:06

Yep.

SPEAKER_01 21:07

Just not sports ball. At least I don't.

SPEAKER_00 21:10

No, you certainly do not.

SPEAKER_01 21:12

Um but if you talk boxing or golf, I know golf.

SPEAKER_00 21:15

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 21:16

You're a big guy boxing guy? I like boxing. Okay. Yeah. I don't like doing the boxing, but I do appreciate the the sport from a distance, from a very safe distance.

SPEAKER_00 21:28

So in this meeting, you had representatives of Greg Abbott's campaign, Speaker Burroughs' campaign, um uh multiple or a couple other consulting firms, and then a bunch of pollsters like Chris Perkins, Ross Hunt, um uh Derek Ryan, Data Guy, uh Mike Basilis, Lieutenant Governor's pollster was there. And then you had a handful of national firms that we see pull or Provide data services a lot in this state. So it was really a meeting of the minds on the Republican side. And what they're going to do here from here is take this assessment and bring it to all the factions, like you said, and say, hey, let's get on the same page. This is what we're expecting.

SPEAKER_01 22:16

Yeah. What was the what was the general feeling walking out of that meeting? Did people think that it was a success?

SPEAKER_00 22:23

Yes, absolutely. First of all, the point was made to me that this was the earliest and biggest such meeting in a cycle that Republicans have had in a long time. Aaron Powell Yeah. And that just goes to show how serious everyone's taking this. Now, just because they take it seriously doesn't mean they don't get shellacked in November. That could happen. And they all know that. You know, they know they're walking into a tenuous situation here. So the feeling was good walking out, at least on the fact that they're all taking this seriously. Some interesting data points, though, that were shared in this uh meeting. One of the pollsters made a comparison, was asked for a comparison of another cycle that this is starting to look like. And the comparison that was said was 2006. Um and uh that was when that was a midterm with a Republican president, George Bush. And Republicans lost, I believe, five seats in the Texas House and two seats in Congress, I believe. A scenario that very well could be replicated this cycle based on the way the m the chessboard's looking right now. Um long way to go. A lot of things can change. Republicans maybe they find a a messaging um uh skeleton key that allows them to turn the tide on this. But right now twenty six is the comparison that's being made on the Republican side.

SPEAKER_01 24:01

See how old are you in 2006?

SPEAKER_00 24:03

Uh 12. Fast math. Depends on which which month in 2006 we're talking about.

SPEAKER_01 24:10

I guess that's fair.

SPEAKER_00 24:11

Eleven or twelve, I think.

SPEAKER_01 24:12

Ages are always moving target.

SPEAKER_00 24:14

That's true.

SPEAKER_01 24:15

Yeah. Um So not not super keyed into Texas politics, but not super keyed into any politics, but the glory days.

SPEAKER_00 24:22

Yeah, I know, right?

SPEAKER_01 24:25

Would only we could go back sometimes.

SPEAKER_00 24:27

I was uh I was more focused on call of playing Call of Duty all the time. Wow. Yeah. Nerd. Yeah. I mean I played I played sports. So I wasn't totally a nerd, just mostly a nerd. Um a couple other data points that stuck out. So this was really shocking to me. Uh so post uh not it's not exit polling, but a poll had been done after the election on the SD9 special election.

SPEAKER_01 24:56

Yeah. Which was one of the biggest earliest shockwaves that like really, I think, threw cold water on Republicans.

SPEAKER_00 25:04

And it was a bellwether. Yeah. Question is bellwether for what exactly? It was a bellwether for the difficult cycle that Republicans will have. That does not mean the Democrats are going to win the state. That does not mean Republicans are gonna escape by without losing any seats. But it shows the enthusiasm Democratic voters have, and I think we saw that play out as well in the primary with the turnout levels there. But it also highlighted the suburbs problem Republicans have. And one uh consultant told me that the suburb problem started in 2018. That's there's been a lot of ink spilled on that, and how Republicans, um, particularly with uh President Trump, lost a lot of ground they used to have as a stronghold in the state's suburban areas, um, and particularly among suburban whites. And this consultant told me, we haven't solved that problem. We've only papered over it in the years since. And a lot of the ways they've papered over that is by extending their uh uh their gains in among Hispanics that have then uh canceled out some of the losses. But if you see, just based on pure 30,000 foot level arithmetic, if you see the Hispanic population, those gains made among Republicans over the last few cycles recede, and then you still have that problem in the suburbs, you're screwed. Yeah. Um you're gonna have a really tough year. And that's what they're looking at right now. So um in that remit race, remit versus Wamsgons, uh self-described 2024 Trump voters in that special election went for remit 51% to 49%. That's which is not a good number for Republicans. No, no, it is is absolutely not. Um and I mean that that should be a pretty clear victory for among that percentage, among that demographic, for Republicans. And it's not just not even just a not a clear victory, it's it's a loss, it's a narrow loss among that demographic. So there's that. Now the other one that stuck out to me most, um, and this was flagged by a couple different consultants to me. Among the primary turnout, 30% of Democratic primary voters this time were general election only histories. Why is that important? If you, as a uh one side or the other, bank a general election only voter in a primary, the odds are near guaranteed that you're gonna have that person's vote, your candidate will, in November. You're getting them to buy in early and pick a side early versus what they normally do, which is wait until the last minute, go in and pull the lever for one side or the other with these general election-only voters. But 30% of the Democratic primary turnout were general election-only voters. Compare that to 10% of the Republican primary turnout, they were GE only voters. That's that's a huge difference. Huge difference. Particularly when we're talking uh the sheer number of Democratic voters returned out versus Republicans, and there were more Democratic primary voters this time. I think we talked about this last week. More people turned out in the Democratic primary than in the Republican. So just based on early math, right there, that's not looking good. Not a good picture for Republicans. Um now they're gonna have to the GOP is going to have to find new voters somewhere, somehow. And Democrats will as well. You know, this is this is still a Republican state, but the conditions are there, and everybody knows it, for um, you know, a tense situation for the majority party going into November.

SPEAKER_01 29:25

Anything you want to add? You said math and arithmetic and a lot of numbers. I could see your eyes glazing. Yeah, did you start seeing me get a little scared? Yes. A little friend. Yeah. You were you tried to hide it, but I was like really trying to keep up there on like, you know, X part of this percentage is me and a little bit.

SPEAKER_00 29:43

I saw you hold back a yawn, too.

SPEAKER_01 29:45

Uh another meeting that happened this week without math.

SPEAKER_00 29:50

Yeah, there was that. At least not that I heard.

SPEAKER_01 29:52

None that no math that was readily apparent was that what delegation of the number I saw was about a hundred or so all people from Texas GOP.

SPEAKER_00 30:03

It was most uh returning Republican legislators of the House and Senate, people that were are retiring from what I was told did not get an invite. You still had a few uh Senate and House members who did not make it anyway, who are returning, but the vast majority of them were there. And then there were some non-members in there as well, uh, but it was mostly legislators.

SPEAKER_01 30:31

Got invited to go up to DC for a day with not President Trump, but just members of his administration, and uh they have these events for other states all the time. It's just kind of like a um, hey, come up, be a part of what we're doing. We're gonna talk, discuss strategy, especially, you know, to your point, going into what everybody is expecting to be a tough uh midterm cycle for Republicans. Um uh some of the big name people that did address the Texas delegation include like HHS Secretary, uh uh Robert F. Kennedy, um, the Small Business Administration, uh Administrator, which was a funny uh administration administrator. It's like God, we could have chosen a different name there. Uh Stephen Miller, big figure as well that spoke to them, and then a bunch of other uh former folks as well.

SPEAKER_00 31:24

Texas lawmaker and HUD secretary Scott Turner was among them. Um and it was it was called the Texas Leadership Summit. Basically, it was the members of the administration giving presentations and outlining some policies points that they hope to see advanced. Um, I'm sure data centers were talked about. I I didn't hear that specifically, but uh that is something that faces a lot of, as we've talked about, faces a lot of friction here in the state that is a priority of the administration. So um policy points there, and I think the the biggest thing, which you know is not super surprising, but it was actually said, is that the president has not given any word to his staff or advisors on whether he's going he's made a decision on endorsements in the U.S. Senate race, runoff, and the attorney general runoff. Now, another interesting part of this was that was told to them, to this gathering of members, and one of the members there gathered was Mays Middleton, who is in the runoff against Chip Roy for attorney general. Um, you know, other candidates were there as well, like Don Huffheinz was there, uh, the GOP nominee for Comptroller. But basically it was it was like a giant lecture series from these uh these administration officials. And from what I'm told, there was no going in. A lot of people uh members had either expected or or worried about kind of a back and forth about these Senate these endorsements, particularly in the Senate race. That didn't pan out. Uh it was more of just a hey, this is what we think y'all should do. We appreciate you for backing us to the help previously on redistricting, on all other policies. Um and here's how what we're looking at going forward. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 33:25

So pretty basic little thing, but it seemed like a fun little trip up to DC and back.

SPEAKER_00 33:31

Yeah, a lot of people had uh quite a time. I saw some pictures, uh, particularly going into the reception uh the previous night on what would that be Wednesday in the Capitol, there was a reception for all these members and their families. Um to DC for uh the Republican delegation in Texas.

SPEAKER_01 33:53

So a lot of meetings happening, a lot of a lot of times being had, and and we're here inside on a beautiful day talking about them.

SPEAKER_00 34:03

Well, we're about to go after this to lunch, and then I'm gonna go watch March Madness on a patio. March Madness. Um we'll see if Fridgie joins.

SPEAKER_01 34:14

What is that? Is that another one of your hockey things?

SPEAKER_00 34:18

You know exactly what that is.

SPEAKER_01 34:20

I just love rage. Not playing stupid. It's so fun. I got you so good the other day. What did I say the other day that made you so mad? I don't remember what was it. Oh, I can't remember, but it was really good. It was one of the best ones I've gotten out of you. This should be another competition that we do. It's just like a rage competition.

SPEAKER_00 34:38

I'm sure you'll be doing that at the Waffle House chunk. Yeah, it's constantly.

SPEAKER_01 34:41

Maybe we'll give a prize to whoever can make you the maddest. Whoever comes on.

SPEAKER_00 34:46

Oh my gosh. Um okay. Uh anything else we need to hit on those two meetings? No, I don't think so. Let's uh let's go to gambling.

SPEAKER_01 34:54

Um let's go gambling. All right, guys, thanks for joining us on the podcast.

SPEAKER_00 35:04

We're gonna go shoot some craps. I mean what what's your favorite way to m lose money in gambling?

SPEAKER_01 35:10

Uh no comment. Uh no, I like uh classic Texas Hold'em. You know, it's it's it's just what you do. Yeah. Um you've never played Texas Hold'em.

SPEAKER_00 35:22

Yes, I have.

SPEAKER_01 35:25

What were you saying the other day? You had a different game that y'all always played.

SPEAKER_00 35:29

Euchre. Euchre. It's a great game. Four-person fancy game.

SPEAKER_01 35:33

And that's a that's a gambling game?

SPEAKER_00 35:35

You can put money on it, yeah. It's not explicitly gambling.

SPEAKER_01 35:39

You've never like played Euchre in a casino or anything.

SPEAKER_00 35:42

No, I don't I don't know if they do that.

SPEAKER_01 35:44

I don't think they do. No. That's why when I was like, oh yeah, we play Texas, you know, well, we play Euchre. I go, what? What type of Yankee is.

SPEAKER_00 35:54

You know what Rummy is? Yeah. How about that? Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 35:57

I know what it is. It's not something that like played.

SPEAKER_00 36:01

Anyway, but anyways, you wrote on gambling this week. There was quite a bit of development.

SPEAKER_01 36:05

Yeah, yeah. So last week there was a big raid on one of the largest card houses in Texas, uh, the Lar the Rodge Cardhouse up in uh uh Round Rock. Um and early in the morning, over two dozen agents of the uh Texas Alcohol Beverage Commission, the county sheriff up there, and the IRS uh raided it, confiscated some things, uh shut down the card club indefinitely. No charges have been filed yet, but it's a part of an ongoing investigation. The TABC uh did say that they were looking into the club for money laundering allegations and illegal gambling operations, uh, and in some other things as well that were listed in the uh search warrant affidavit. And this obviously sent major ripple effects amongst the gambling community because card houses specifically have occupied a somewhat nebulous gray area in Texas law. By and large, gambling in Texas is illegal and has been for a long, long, long time. Really ever since like the late 1800s. Um and then by the time you get to early 1900s, in you know, you have these other very big kind of moral pushes, that's where you get prohibition uh as well. And so Texas clamps down on gambling massively in all of its forms, even up to the point that for a while they they made for a long time they made like paramutual betting at horse tracks illegal. They did for a very brief period re-legalize that to get the tax revenue during the Great Depression, but then they made it illegal again. It's come back since then. But by and large, gambling, very, very tenuous position in the kind of loopholes that have been able to be found. And so like even the longest running cardhouse in Texas right now was only opened in 2015. Not because of any change in the law, but but because of a a push to interpret the law in a certain way. So you can have well, the argument goes, because even you know what I've talked to amongst certain government lawyers is like uh these things are probably not legal, but there's a big disagreement about it, even at the highest ranges of just uh uh government. Um because the argument goes that you can have a car game in Texas if it's held in a private place, uh everybody has, with the exception of like skill and chance, the same odds of winning, and the house doesn't make money off of the gambling function itself. So like there's not a cut coming out of the pot for whoever is hosting this or or gambling or whatever business and stuff. And so in order to abide by these three uh uh uh uh kind of tenants, uh these card houses are private membership things. You have to buy like a pass, a membership, a day pass, something like that. Uh some of these places charge fees for uh seats. So like kind of like uh at Top Golf or Bowling, you know, you can rent a lane for an hour, you can rent a seat and you have that. Uh but they don't take any part of the the winnings or the pot, all that goes to the to the winner and things of that nature. Um and so they're you know saying this is a private place because it's a private club, and we're not taking any part of the winnings, therefore it's a legal way of gambling in Texas. Uh but you know, this raid has certainly caused a lot of uh uncertainty because there haven't been any charges yet, so there's it's not exactly sure. There's been accusations of money laundering. You know, the owners of the club have, or at least one of them has come out and be like, I have no idea what this is about. We still haven't received information. Uh but you know, this is all just a part of the statewide, I guess, ongoing battle over gambling, betting, casinos. It's a huge undercurrent in Texas politics because millions and millions of dollars every single cycle get pumped into the political uh operations across the state. You obviously have the uh Sands casino operation that has for several cycles really tried to move the needle on getting at least some resort casinos approved. Uh it is there had their hopes dashed on the rock every single cycle. But you also have sports betting as well, that is making a big push. You did a very good job of peeling back the the nesting egg on that operation with DraftKings, DraftKings, which of course the number one uh the lead shareholder in that is Houston area business magnate and casino owner, uh Tillman Fertita. He's the lead shareholder in that. He's also the the lead shareholder in in Wynn uh Entertainment. The Wynn is big uh Vegas establishment as well. And Tillman Fertita is also currently making a bid or trying to purchase uh the Caesars Entertainment. This is really interesting. This is big uh for something like seven billion dollars. And Fertita owns the Golden Nuggets uh casinos out in Louisiana as well. And so there's just this wide kind of net that's being cast trying to move the needle to make sports betting legal in Texas, casinos, but then at the very same time, you have the crosswinds of like these card houses are getting raided. It's still an open uh legal question of whether or not they are complying with Texas law at all. Additionally, too, we have the even bigger legal gray area about these prediction markets, uh polymarket and calchi, uh, which allows people I mean, just like straight up, it just allows sports betting.

SPEAKER_00 42:34

It's an end-around. It's an end-around. Gambling prohibitions.

SPEAKER_01 42:37

Yeah, because you are placing bets, but it's not placing bets, you're like buying a futures contract on a real-world eventuality that might or might not happen. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 42:47

Well, and it's not just it's not just sports.

SPEAKER_01 42:50

It's anything politics. Yeah. Elections. The elections, all of this stuff.

SPEAKER_00 42:55

In fact, that brings up that brings up the Arizona lawsuit. Yes. The state of Arizona just sued uh excuse me, just sued Calci over various allegations, one of which was uh violating gambling prohibitions against betting on elections. And Calci Calchi's whole case, and any time they get challenged on any of this, is that uh we Calci are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, not state law.

SPEAKER_01 43:29

Yeah. So that's federally preempted.

SPEAKER_00 43:32

Yes.

SPEAKER_01 43:34

But I don't think the states are really going to buy that for much longer. And the biggest thing is it's like this is billions and billions and billions of dollars that are going into this, it's circumventing. And other industries like casinos, like sports betting, are like, why do they get the whole pie and we're left out here like Tiny Tim, you know, just knocking on the glass.

SPEAKER_00 43:57

Please sell more gruel.

SPEAKER_01 43:58

Yeah. Um So there's going to be a lot of counter lobbying from them of like, yeah, well, if we're not going to be allowed into it, this shouldn't be allowed either. And I mean, you know, they have these arguments and stuff, but just from a layman's perspective, you know, I'm just a simple boy from East Texas, so this seems like gambling, you know. Yeah. My Baptist preacher would have been disappointed.

SPEAKER_00 44:18

Um and so Well and to further show how messy this thing is getting, uh first of all, there was the polymarket is cur is opening a sp a bar in DC, a polymarket bar, where you go and it has monitors all the situations that they're allowing betting on. Um and I saw a joke on Twitter it was uh uh polymarket hey uh board member, hey, I have a great idea. How about a sports bar where even less women go to?

SPEAKER_01 44:58

Oh tough. Yeah, and I mean even at the national level, there's some very real concerns about this because uh basically the equivalent of insider trading, right? If you know something's happening, especially in DC, like there's a couple of accounts that I've seen people watching on social media that like have made millions of dollars off of when you know foreign military intervention's gonna happen that the U.S. is involved in. Things like that. And it's like uh this sends up some red flags.

SPEAKER_00 45:31

Furthermore, um uh the major Major League Baseball announced a partnership, I think, with Polymarket itself, which is uh insane. Like it just I never thought I'd see that, uh particularly MLB.

SPEAKER_01 45:47

Yeah. And because I mean, like, especially in sports, this is the oldest racket in the world of rigging the books and and all the things.

SPEAKER_00 45:54

True list Joe Jackson's not in the Hall of Fame because of the Black Sox scandal. You wear that?

SPEAKER_01 46:00

I am actually. Wow. I am because you know, it has to do with vices, and it has our resident vice reporter. Gambling, liquor, things of that nature. You know, I'm on I'm monitoring those. Okay. Yeah, it's just kind of a uh happenstance that it had to do with sports.

SPEAKER_00 46:18

Gotcha. Gotcha. Um But yeah, like this is this stuff is getting so entangled. And you know, you add in the fact that what we're seeing in college sports, where uh this thing is an even bigger money maker because of the NIL stuff, uh, and people like Cody Campbell trying to uh lay out to to reform the system in a way that allows things to be sustainable for universities. Well, throw in this this uh betting bomb um uh on all these sports leagues and it just muddies the water even more. You have the NBA scandal that broke uh what last year or the year before that, where um uh they were betting on was that a that was a card game, but they were also involved NBA players. Yeah, for Atani, yeah. Like this stuff is messy as hell.

SPEAKER_01 47:13

And then of course, is it betting, is it not betting, is it betting and gambling pursuant to existing law, or does it require new regulation? States are gonna start weighing in on it. I mean, I think it will definitely be stuff that gets legislation filed here because it's just it's just begging for it at this point.

SPEAKER_00 47:31

They are already working on it.

SPEAKER_01 47:33

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 47:33

Especially on CalShi and that kind of um uh the prediction market side of things. Uh there'd be some pretty notable members lining up behind uh something to take a whack at CalShi. And it'll be interesting to see what they do lobby-wise. I haven't seen any uh lobby registrations yet. Yeah. But I know CalShi's going around and recruiting lobbyists ahead of next session.

SPEAKER_01 47:58

And they've definitely been leaning on Texas politicians, uh at least, you know, that I'm aware of, during last session as well. You know, they maybe don't have a formal lobby operation, but they've definitely been having conversations. And they have launched lobby operations in DC, and I think their play is gonna be, again, just going all in on this preemption argument. But as soon as the state passes laws on it, it's gonna lead to a lawsuit, and that's probably gonna go very high up because it it is an open open question here. Um so it's gonna be very interesting to watch. I feel like we ought to be kicking ourselves because we should have, you know, we monitor the situation. We could have made a nice chunk of change, but we're not, we're we're neither one of us are natural gamblers. No. I find it very intriguing, but like it's very difficult for me even to, you know, do I have a straight here?

SPEAKER_00 48:58

Like all these numbers, you also prefer to spend your m the money that you do have on booze.

SPEAKER_01 49:03

Well, I mean, yeah, yeah. I mean, there are the everybody has their selective vices. Uh that's probably one of mine, some would say. Uh many people are saying many uh some, some might say that. Uh my other big vice is buying books. I just buy them at a relief.

SPEAKER_00 49:22

One of these things is unlike the other. Yes.

SPEAKER_01 49:25

But I gotta say, one it's all money that I don't have anymore. Yeah, that's true. That's true. I just buy books, drink, and look at them from a distance.

SPEAKER_00 49:38

Um, this session is gonna be fascinating for many different reasons. But a lot of it's gonna be determined by what happens in November. For example, in 2018, when Republicans got shellacked, lost a bunch of seats, they moderate. We like that word today. And they focused twice.

SPEAKER_01 49:57

You said shellac twice.

SPEAKER_00 49:58

How many times have you said things of that nature? Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_01 50:00

Bruha is your one. Well that's like a phrase. It's like you walk in, it's kind of like uh Sasame Street or whatever. Today's show is brought to you by Shellac.

SPEAKER_00 50:12

Okay, fair enough. I don't know. I'm just I'm just noticing things. You're just observing. I'm just a noticer. You keep monitoring that situation for us. Um anyway, so in 2018, Republicans got shellacked, and then they came back, they moderated for 2019 session, focused on property taxes and school finance. If that happens again, in terms of the election, you can guarantee Republicans will focus more on issues like that. Probably infrastructure will be one, Davis data center thing is gonna be fascinating to watch. Um but also a lot of the social issues have been taken care of uh from a Republican perspective this by this point. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 51:00

They've already spiked the football, so you gotta find another wedge issue.

SPEAKER_00 51:04

Yes. And we'll probably see stuff on this as Islamic issue be probably the big social issue that's uh at least.

SPEAKER_01 51:12

But depending on how well Democrats do, that would be in my list of things the first thing to follow away because it's really kind of the last big, I guess we could call like red meat social issue that that they're Oh I wouldn't I w that's that's a pretty final statement.

SPEAKER_00 51:29

I there's always something that's a lot of things. Yeah, there's always something.

SPEAKER_01 51:31

But like out of the things that they've been messaging on during the primary, that's the one that has I in my mind the most like b boys and girls sports type of remnant there.

SPEAKER_00 51:42

Because the other ones, you know, obviously abortion's largely off the table, largely, not entirely, but largely.

SPEAKER_01 51:49

Um it's these, you know a lot of the the things that we're hearing people talk about that are gonna be big issues aren't social issues. It's stuff like which I guess gambling is a social issue, but it's it's not the same way as like what these last cycles were in my mind.

SPEAKER_00 52:07

Yeah, and immigration will be as well. Um, you know, the the Pyler v. Doe case is gonna be a theme quite a bit. That's the one that requires uh the state to pay for the education of children to be illegal immigrants. And uh there's actually that brings up something that I did forgot to mention on the meeting segment of this podcast. So Stephen Miller gets up and in typical Stephen Miller fashion is really like Jonathan Edwards pound in the podium type. Um one member told me uh we got yelled at by Stephen Miller. Um but he was pressing that issue quite a bit. Yeah. And um, whether it's the uh illegal immigrants in terms of education or healthcare or whatever it is, pressing them to do more on that. And um uh yeah, I mean that didn't sit well. A lot of the the members in the room were like, we we've done so much, and you're now just like it's not good enough. Yeah. Also, we're not in session right now. We're not in session until January. But anyway, the the point I was getting at with this um uh with the session talk was gambling and that um that just entire portfolio of of issue here, that could take on a social issue flavor, and a lot of its outcome will be determined by how this general election goes.

SPEAKER_01 53:36

Well, Andy, do you see like at least during the primary a lot of those heated contentious ones, that was an attack that was one of kind of the battle lines being drawn. Are you are you a sans person, are you not, are you a casino person, are you not? So it it is, I think, it does kind of have that charge a little bit. I just don't know how much that's going to carry on into like a general messaging.

SPEAKER_00 54:00

Well, and in the the casino issue and maybe increasingly the sports bidding issue is becoming on the casino side, it already kind of is, but uh it it's rising up to the level of the tort reform issue in terms of these are fairly niche issues for industries for certain industries.

SPEAKER_01 54:24

Niche.

SPEAKER_00 54:25

Niche, whatever you cleared at me on that. Niche issues for certain industries where a lot of money can be made one way or the other, or or not made. Yeah. And that determines where a lot of this political money goes. Um in terms of spending, I don't think any issue rises to the level of the tort or the gambling one in terms of sheer amount of money dumped into these races. Um but that doesn't guarantee success at all, success or failure, one way or the other, yeah, on these issues legislatively when we get to the the session. So a lot of situations to monitor.

SPEAKER_01 55:09

Tor gambling, and then we're starting to see a lot of AI money come in as well. But it's just not on the same level yet.

SPEAKER_00 55:18

Maybe it does get there eventually.

SPEAKER_01 55:20

Yeah, I think that might be continuing to spike. Yeah. I would throw that on there as like maybe a third one to watch.

SPEAKER_00 55:27

Yeah. Um, and I I heard last night about I haven't um seen it for sure yet, but uh about some very interesting personnel moves uh from existing uh institutions in Texas, a name, particularly one name that most people listening to this podcast would know, hired by the uh data centers.

SPEAKER_01 55:52

So what a tantalizing bidding.

SPEAKER_00 55:55

We'll see if uh that hire hire is announced here.

SPEAKER_01 55:58

I can't wait to hear about it when we stop recording. So Sucker C I get the first I get the first bid.

SPEAKER_00 56:05

Um but they are to your point, they are really ramping up their operation, the data centers, the AI in this state because they know Can't AI have an AI lobbyist?

SPEAKER_01 56:20

How does that work? Do they have to register?

SPEAKER_00 56:21

Chat GBT lobbyists?

SPEAKER_01 56:23

Yeah, or like the the what is it called? Like the Claude personal agents or something that sprout consciousness and have their own little social media platform. Have you read about that?

SPEAKER_00 56:34

No.

SPEAKER_01 56:35

It's all these more advanced AIs that are basically personal assistants, but have a more fleshed out personality. They like made their own social media platform discussion board where they talk to each other about these things. Allegedly. I mean, it's all ones and zeros, ultimately the end of the day, I think, right? I don't know. It's all binary, it's binary code and it's black magic to me. I i it's frightening. It's frightening a little bit. Um but uh yeah, I don't know, that'd be so interesting. I wonder what ethical questions there are there about these AIs running around. AI can't drink booze, so they're not gonna be a good lobbyist.

SPEAKER_00 57:21

No. No, it can't. But it can probably set up a way to pay for booze, which might do half, you know, accomplish half the battle there. Sold. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 57:37

I don't know. It's all I'm just rambling. Yeah. It's just interesting. This AI stuff. That was the one South by Southwest panel I went to. Oh, yeah. It was about AI. Will anything interesting come from that? Uh you know, it was a very good panel. Uh Senator Tan Parker was the moderator, and he did a very uh able job in that role. Uh you had uh Laura Davis from U.S. Ledge. You had um uh representative from you had David TPPF, their tech policy guy, and then you had uh Tony Sauerhoff, who is basically functions as the chief information officer of the state of Texas. And him and uh Senator Parker talked quite a bit about how Texas is trying to responsibly and safely integrate AI into uh state government um in different divisions and and how they're trying to balance innovation uh but also do it responsibly because you know how do you do that against cyber attacks, how do you do that to where personal private data isn't getting shared or misused or made too available and and things like that. Uh and then how do you do it? And their kind of big point that they kept doing is hitting on was that none of the AI integration in Texas is designed to replace humans, but it's merely meant to like augment their abilities and make government more efficient, is what they're trying to do using these new tools. Uh but there was definitely a very, I think, cognizant recognition that it's not this cure-all panacea that you can just flip the switch on and walk away. Um and it's it it seemed like they were So it's not Terminator yet. It's not Terminator yet. Um they didn't get it into like super granular details about how X agency is using AI to streamline uh stuff, but you know, very much talking about preparing Texas government data sets in order to be optimized for the use of some of these AI assisted tools down the line. So yeah, it was a it was a good, interesting conversation. Um you got something out of South by Southwest. Yeah, I did actually. Shocker, you go to it and it's you know kind of helpful, right? Instead of just sitting here being a grouch about the dirt mountains. Being old man nails a cloud. Yeah, I know. So uh and and kind of I guess the biggest thing is that Senator Parker brought up was Texas wants to lead the country in how we create a regulatory framework for artificial intelligence and how it incorporates with government functions. So there's gonna be, I think, a lot of discussion of like, okay, let's give the federal government the blueprint here by what we what we do in Texas. Um so yeah, it was a good conversation.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:35

Well, a lot of things to monitor after this podcast and after the Yeah, should we go up to the to the monitoring bar? The the poly market bar? Yeah. We'll have to fly to DC for that, I think. The markets bar. Um there was a um last thing uh before we hit the road here. Uh there was a bar, it I've seen a few of these, but the one I went to was in Detroit, and it's a brewery, but the price for beer fluctuates every 15 minutes. And it fluctuates based on what people order. It's like supply and demand. So the the beer that uh in that previous 15-minute window that people did not buy much of, the price goes down. And then during that window, the price is low. Everybody flies, it jumps up, yeah. Just like it's it's pretty cool idea. Stocks. Right.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:27

That's how stocks work.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:28

That is exactly how stocks work. And it has the stock ticker going across.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:32

So we love a good fun bar.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:34

Yeah. Yeah. Well speaking of fun bar, I think we have a fun bar to go to.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:40

Let's go. Goodbye, everybody. We have business.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:44

We won't catch you next week, but the following week.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:47

But we'll miss you, and I'm sure you will miss us too. And uh if y'all survive a week without us, we'll uh regather here soon.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:59

All right. Thanks for listening, y'all. Catch you later.