Texas Runoff Preview and What Comes Next - Episode 30

Brad and Cassi preview next week's runoffs and the late-developing events of this week, including President Trump making his pick in the Senate race and Gov. Abbott's stern warning to donors.

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:08

Morning everybody. This is Brad Johnson with Cassie Shredder here for another episode of the Texas Bullpen Podcast. Cassie, how's it going?

SPEAKER_00 0:16

It's it's going great. Thank you.

SPEAKER_02 0:18

You're pinch hitting today because Richie is out in I think the Hill Country with his family, doing something, uh, as he usually does, I'm sure getting up to no good. But we've got a lot to talk about, of course, the runoffs. This is the last podcast before the runoffs happen. Big developments happen this week. So we'll run through the slate of all that. We'll run through some of the uh breaking news we broke this week. Uh two in particular, big, uh pretty big stories, I think. Uh, and then some of the other notable items that uh that happened this week in Texas politics. So I think we gotta start with the the first one.

SPEAKER_00 0:56

With the biggest news of the week, the biggest political news, I would say, the biggest election-related news was the president deciding to endorse Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate on the Republican side, which is pretty remarkable given the fact that what, two months ago, just over two months ago, we were um we thought that we were expecting an endorsement from the president to the longtime incumbent John Cornyn. So what happened?

SPEAKER_02 1:27

Ten weeks ago, yeah. I mean, it was the writing was on the wall, it was clear what had happened was the the pretext was that Cornyn overperformed in the primary, and not only did he overperform what we thought he was gonna do, he he beat Paxton. Now, of course, both of them were far off from winning outright, but um it it it really changed expectations uh after that. And you know, the president more than anything else, he wants his endorsement to be the winner. He wants his his uh golden stamp to be the one that uh that decides who wins and who loses, you know? Um and I think that explains what happened this week, or at least partially explains it. But yeah, I mean, the uh they were about to issue the endorsement, and then Paxton and his team, and what I think has to be described as one of the most successful political gambits that we've seen in a long, long time, came out and said, I will consider dropping out of the race. Emphasis on consider because I do not think even if the Save Act had passed, Paxton would have dropped dropped out. I don't see why he would have. You know, he would he finished one point behind uh behind Cornyn, at least purely cynically, I don't see why he would have. Um, you know, a man's word is is everything, but uh, you know, there it was a pretty uh pretty strong consider in that tweet. But anyway, he said he would consider dropping out if Cornyn agreed to nuke the filibuster along with enough other Republicans in order to pass the Save Act, which is the uh voter ID, or uh no, it was um yeah, I think partially voter ID, but also mainly uh another prohibition that you can't vote if you are not a citizen and if you're an illegal immigrant. Um of course that didn't go anywhere because you have enough uh institutionalists in the Senate who do not want to get rid of the filibuster for various reasons. Um it just was never going anywhere, and it hasn't since. Leader John Thune has not been able to build up enough support for any kind of uh adjustment that would allow the SAVE Act to pass. And so we trudged on, and everyone was wondering, you know, is Trump gonna come out uh and endorse Cornyn still, or is that dead in the water? Is he gonna flip and endorse Paxton, or is he? I kind of theorized a bit, is he gonna come out and do a joint endorsement?

SPEAKER_00 3:59

A dueling endorsement.

SPEAKER_02 4:00

Yeah, ultimately he did not do that, and he came out and endorsed Ken Paxton. There are various theories as to why. Um, you know, I think the simplest, the Occam's Razor explanation, is that uh Paxton, Paxton's team and his allies in the White House did a better job of getting advantageous polling in front of the president where to the point where he thought, okay, this is it's going this way, and I need to um I need to uh hitch my wagon to this horse. I think there's certainly some of that. You know, we heard about uh internally the same pollster on the Paxton side who had the race at um at Cornyn up one percent in the primary. Now this wasn't released, it was a totally internal pro poll. Uh that same pollster in this runoff had Paxton up 10 points. So that's just one poll. I'm sure there was a bunch being shopped around. I'm sure the Corning side had their own shopping around. But um ultimately the the president was convinced that uh Paxton's the right horse to back. And now, you know, uh the uh the Corning campaign in Corny itself uh is kind of up creek without a paddle. And that's not to say that this thing is done and dusted, it certainly is not. Wild things have happened, you know. For example, just look back at the March primary. I we all thought that Paxton was gonna win that by uh high single digits, and not only that, but he lost it. Look at uh the AG race right below it, uh, a couple notches below it. And uh everyone thought Chip Roy was gonna finish in a comfortable first, and then Maze Middleton finished in a fairly comfortable first. So weird stuff happens. This is already a weird runoff and an atypical runoff, but is it atypical enough from a turnout perspective in order for Cornyn to uh overcome the natural disadvantage that a kind of Republican he is has in a runoff versus Paxton? You know, well, at this point, there's only a few days left before we figure that out, but it's not looking good. And uh, you know, I was at a a Cornyn event the day before this happened. Um he was doing a get out the vote tour on the first day of early voting, and one of the stops was in San Antonio. I drove down, it was at the Towers, which is a retirement home, and uh he uh was joined by Governor Rick Perry and uh former Senator Phil Graham, um, which you know there there was a lot of uh mockery on on Twitter about you know the old's this this being totally emblematic of the Corning campaign and how it's just solely focused on old people. But the old's votes count the same as young people or middle-aged people. It's all about who pulls in the most. And yeah, you can you can make uh make fun of of the campaign for being focused on on that demographic if they are, and I think they certainly lean that way more. But it doesn't matter. All that matters is the math, you know? Um so both campaigns are gonna have to turn out um, you know, they're they're favored demographic and favored voters, and um, you know, this uh this event was pretty interesting because Rick Perry and oh I I I skipped a point. So that at that event and the one before in Austin, Cornyn was asked about a Trump endorsement, and he comes out and says uh he says, I think that ship has sailed. There's a fair argument to make that maybe that irritated the president enough to come out and make a decision, where he wouldn't otherwise. I don't think we'll ever know for sure if that was the straw that broke the camel's back, but I can see the logic to that. You know, the president, a little bit of hubris irritating the president about uh um you know, well, I I'll say it's over when I say it's over, right? Um but the next day boom, it drops like a ten ton nuclear bomb. And um, you know, the the Corning camp had talked to me the day before at this event saying, you know, we feel we feel good, we know that if we turn out if if t turnouts high enough, we have a really good shot. Um, but that was in a vacuum without a Trump endorsement. And so the calculus totally changes. And clearly the the Corning campaign was deflated, um, as they should be. You know, it's a it's a big endorsement in a Republican primary. We just saw Bill Cassidy go down in his uh his primary in in Louisiana against a Trump endorsed candidate. I think that's another possible explanation of why Trump did this. He sees he saw that, you know, it not only did Cassidy lose, but he didn't make the runoff. Right. And um so that just adds to kind of the case that the um uh the dynamic that is developing in this in this primary and this runoff. Um it's an anti-incumbent, anti-war establishment type uh primary. But um they Corner came out and said he's not dropping out, he is continuing full speed ahead, they're gonna continue their blocking and tackling and try and frankly at this point make a miracle happen.

SPEAKER_00 9:37

Well, uh okay, so based on conversations that you're having, right, with pollsters, campaign guys, staffers, does just the universal or the almost universal like reaction to the Trump endorsement seem to be that it's over and that Paxton is is more or less comfortably favored to win? Or are there some, I don't know, sentiments that are being expressed that like, hey, maybe this, you know, maybe this Trump endorsement obviously is a big deal, but maybe it's not going to be as big of a deal as everybody thinks.

SPEAKER_02 10:11

Uh I mean we're still a couple days out from it. So maybe sentiments change a bit as as you know, you can field another pole. I the sense I'm getting is that everyone thinks this is basically done and dusted. Okay. Um, you know, there are a few holdouts and you know, fair play to them, of course. I mean, if I'm corny, I have to believe I can win. Otherwise, what's the point? You know? Um, if I'm the people that have on his campaign that have put uh hundreds and hundreds of hours in of work into this, of course you have to go into it thinking at least you have a shot. But the uh the third party watcher and and uh most people that are um that aren't in the can't get in the corning campaign think it's just it's over.

SPEAKER_00 10:57

So that's interesting.

SPEAKER_02 10:59

But you know, crazy things happen.

SPEAKER_00 11:00

Anything can happen. Anything can happen. Anything can happen. Okay, so let's pivot to the other high-profile state right statewide race that we're paying a lot of attention to. The Republican primary runoff for Texas Attorney General, right? Which, you know, Paxson's not running for that job again. Um we have US rep Chip Roy, State Senator Mays Middleton. And the Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is coming out swinging against Roy quite a bit this week. Why? What's going on?

SPEAKER_02 11:33

Well, uh, you can read, check it out in longer form on fourth reading. I wrote about it this week, uh, the the legislature's Chip Roy dilemma. But I mean, really, it comes down to uh a lot of lawmakers not liking Roy as a potential next AG, at least compared to Mays Middleton. There's more familiarity with Mays Middleton. Middleton's a a a creature of the legislature, not of Congress. Roy is a creature of Congress. So there's some natural um uh break between that. Roy's also a much more uh bombastic personality, someone who can command the limelight and the spotlight a lot more than Mays Middleton. Um and so they, you know, f politicians don't like to be upstaged. And Roy would uh he's already criticized the legislature off and on over the years quite a bit, um, over various things, particularly old house leadership in terms of Dade Phelan, but uh also just the legislature as a whole and and things that uh even the lieutenant governor has supported that that passed. Um you know, he's not Chip Roy is is not someone who hides the ball in terms of what he thinks. He constantly he constantly says it openly, sometimes to his detriment. For example, all the stuff, all the clashes with Trump that are now biting him in the rear in this primary. Um he is he just comes out and and says what he thinks, and um for better or for worse. But you know, that's uh that doesn't sit well with lawmakers who uh might not agree with whatever he thinks on any given thing. Um or or lawmakers who uh or state officials who uh you know think he's gonna cause problems for them as AG in terms of getting across the line, what they want to get across the line. Um, you know, it seems like Dan Patrick last session, a lot of the policy that Dan Patrick was pushing and focusing on himself, not just the Senate or working with the speaker, the things he really cared about himself were legacy items. Things that when he's done, because he is closer, a lot closer to the end of his career than he is the beginning. Um, and you know, all for all intents and purposes, this is his last term if he wins re-election this year. Um although he said that before. But uh Yeah, he's still on the ballot. Um but it it it looked, it really struck me as he is going for legacy type items that when he's older and even grayer in his rocking chair with his grandkids, he can point and say, I did that. Whether it's the Dementia Research Prevention Institute uh or the Hollywood Fund, um, you know, when he's watching movies with his grandkids, he could say, I played a huge role in that. Um, you know, I everyone, every politician gets to the end of their career and they're looking for something to hang their hat on. And the non-policy side of that for Patrick here is do my senators go on to um replace me or succeed me in in terms of advancing the state of Texas the way I'd like it to be advanced. You know, if he gets uh if Middleton wins, the the AG and and will be uh a Patrick, uh not necessarily accolade, but a senator under Patrick. You have Don Buckingham, who's the general land commissioner, who is a um uh uh uh a former senator under Patrick, even though there's an interesting twist there with her because uh she has um uh been kind of put in the dunce corner by uh some of state leadership over various things. But um over what, Brad? Over what? Over what? Well, I mean the Alamo ca the Alamo got taken away from the GLO uh and moved into the Alamo Commission. And you can look at the timeline on this bill that was filed. It was filed in April, well after the filing deadline, and it was filed in the Senate in advance late in session. Uh it came about a month after Buckingham uh allowed the feds to patrol Fronten Island, which is Island in the on the Rio Grande, that uh was used as a kind of a border outpost for bird security operations, uh, and then did a lot of media on it. And so um for whatever reason that did not sit well with uh state leaders, um Governor Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Patrick, but also other uh I think they're just they just don't like how some things have been done. Um no, she would say I've been doing things the way I think they should be done, of course. So you know, it's not like there's an all-out hatred of her like there seems to be here with Chip Roy and Dan Patrick, but it it does uh kind of explain the thinking of Dan Patrick coming out and um you know hitting hard against Chip Roy, and my gosh, he is not holding back, as you said uh at the intro of this segment. He uh he's coming out and I thought it was funny he what was it last night was uh Wednesday night. We're record record recording uh Thursday night. Wednesday night, Patrick puts out this statement, this tweet, a really long one, as he is wont to do, and he goes, I would never call Chip Roy a lawyer or a liar. He I guess he would call him a lawyer because he is a lawyer. I would never call Chip Roy a liar, but he's saying things that aren't true. I think you're calling him a liar. Uh yeah, you are. Let's just say what it is. Come on. Um But it it really it's kind of interesting because I I've been getting the feeling that Roy has been gaining momentum. And Chip Roy, we knew this was coming. I think Richie and I talked about this on the last podcast, but we hadn't seen the finance reports yet. Uh we knew Roy had gotten an injection of campaign dollars that he didn't previously have because he was going up on TV with such frequency that he didn't do before because he didn't have the money. It's to the point where he was outspending Maze Middleton. I don't know if right this second he's still outspending Middleton on TV, but he got outspent three to one in the primary, and he is not being outspent three to one in this one. So um he got money from Alex Fairley, was the biggest one that came in, Amarillo Businessman. But you had others like uh Robert Marlin, a uh I think he's uh on the TLR board or one of the bigger donors for TLR. Uh various others, other names. Uh, I think Cody Campbell actually gave him 100k. Um, but the uh it's an interesting development, and it feels like Roy is gaining some momentum. Now, I talked to the Middleton guys this week, and they're calm, cool, and collected, just like they were in the primary when I mean, frankly, they knew what nobody else did, and that Middleton was far outperforming what the general expectations were about the that race. So who's right and who's wrong, I don't know. But it does feel like, and I've gotten a lot of comments about this that Roy is picking up steam, not least because he has the money to put himself on TV. Um but also the canary in the coal mine, to me, if that is the case, is this kind of more coordinated attack against Roy, not least of whom is Dan Patrick coming out swinging multiple times this week and pretty swinging pretty hard at him. Um but others as well. Like it's not it's not just it's not just Dan Patrick, um, although he's the biggest um the biggest figure doing it. That that seems to tell me that they're they're seeing momentum being gained by Roy. Um you know, I don't know if I don't know if their internal polling has it close. Uh I have heard rumblings about polling that did have it close, but you know, this stuff changes so fast. And um we did a a predictions uh episode before the primary, and virtually everyone was wrong. You know, maybe maybe we do it this time and we rattle off everything and it comes out perfectly fine, perfectly exact. But uh this is such a difficult thing to to predict because these campaigns are so volatile. So um that this AG race is is fascinating. And then you've got the one on the other side of the of the aisle with Nathan Johnson and uh Joe Jaworski, and there was some spending parody actually between those two that we didn't that didn't exist the first time around in the primary. But Johnson nearly hit 50 in his in the primary first round, first go-round. It'd be surprising if he doesn't win it, but you know, stranger things have happened. So um the AG race overall has been, I think, the most interesting. Although I'm kind of getting sick of it all. I'm ready for this runoff to be just be over with.

SPEAKER_00 21:06

You don't want this stuff on an endless loop.

SPEAKER_02 21:08

No.

SPEAKER_00 21:09

I kind of do.

SPEAKER_02 21:11

Well, you're a sicko.

SPEAKER_00 21:12

Well, I mean, I I must say, I think I could have the Texas legislature on an endless loop.

SPEAKER_02 21:19

Okay. I can agree with that.

SPEAKER_00 21:21

You know, like a full-time thing. I think that'd be fun. Okay, but I agree with you. Okay, so right, we're talking about runoffs here. Next week is the runoff, May 26th. Right? So early voting will be close, like we'll be done by the time folks are listening to this on Saturday morning. What are the other most interesting races to watch? Are there other statewide races that are catching your eyes? And then maybe like congressional. Yeah. What's what's standing out to you?

SPEAKER_02 21:53

You know, first of all though, I think we should note that Memorial Day, Election Day is the day after Memorial Day. Oh, yeah. Does that affect affect how much it will affect turnout. How much does it affect turnout on election day? Uh for for what's already been a really strange and difficult to handicap uh runoff election. So um I just want to point that out real quick. But uh there are a lot of interesting races on the ballots. Uh you know other statewides you've got Vicky Goodwin against Marcos Velas in the lieutenant governor's runoff on the Democratic side uh to see who gets to face Dan Patrick in November. Uh there's an interesting twist there where uh Texas Majority Pack, which is probably the the biggest um third party group in the state for Democrats. Um they get their money from not just him, but George Soros, of course, who uh is you know this big bad boogeyman for Republicans, but others as well. It's not just him. Uh but they are they have funneled money into I think the the group is named Houstonians for Working Families that is putting a lot of more a lot of money into Marcos Vellas's campaign. And there's an interesting break there on it. Goodwin is is not very happy. She has criticized uh Texas Majority Pack for this um especially you know there's a lot of talk about Democrats need to unite and uh instead you know at least behind the scenes here they're opposing her and they're trying to take her out I think one of the the logical reasons would be that if Tal Rico you already have Tal Rico you have Gina Hinahosa you if you you have Vicky Goodwin if she wins this and you have Sarah Eckhart that is an entirely uh almost entirely Austin based statewide ballot and I think that is not a great look for Democrats. It's not it's not like they can't overcome that and put out a I mean it is a it is a really quite a formidable slate uh certainly compared to years past but still it's hard to ignore the fact that everyone is from Austin if that plays out uh in that in that manner. But um so I don't know if that's the reason or one of the reasons uh maybe there's some internal fight feuding involving the State Party and and TMP and Vicky Goodwin and who who knows what it is. But um it is an interesting twist there. Goodwin is probably the front runner is the front runner she finished first in the primary but uh that is one of those undercard races that that could end up with a weird a weird result. Then you've got uh I think the other really big interesting run up uh runoff election is the the railroad commission we've talked Richie and I have talked about this a lot in the in past weeks uh Jim Wright against Bo French and the oil and gas industry is coming out heavy for Jim Wright because they do not want a wild card on the commission and BoFrench if he's anything he is a wild card. Now he would say that's an advantage for him and that's an asset but uh clearly with how much money the the industry is and I'm talking Chevron I'm talking Exxon Energy Transfer Partners all of the um the big oil and gas companies are putting their money behind Jim Wright and uh I I think they I don't think they love Wright as a commissioner because he does have uh a bit of a different way of governing than Chrissy Craddock or um or Wayne Christian but clearly they much prefer him over Bo French as a candidate. And on the other side you've got you know kind of the Tim Dunn apparatus backing Bo French. They see him as their guy to get on a statewide uh seat and um you know they'd be right about that if he wins and he very well could win. This I don't think anybody has a really good read on this race. Even the two campaigns don't seem to have a great read. You know I've heard people that that know a lot of things about this have entirely different different opinions about this race. Oh Jim Wright's gonna win 6040 oh Bo French is going to win 6040 it's not going to be close. You know maybe you split the baby there in whichever direction it goes it's gonna be close but there's so much money being pumped into this but with the Railroad Commission you have to always go back and ask yourself does anybody know what the heck the Railroad Commission does? You and I do. But does the average even average runoff voter know? I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 27:03

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SPEAKER_00 27:36

I was just um I was pulling up because I wanted to make sure that I was remembering this correctly um you know I guess that this is like already a race that's on people's radar so whatever happens maybe nobody is going to be too surprised at the end of the day if Bo French wins. But Jim Wright was like a crazy surprise win in November 2020. Yeah and he unseated Ryan Sitton I think like pretty unexpectedly saw that coming and so I know that the circumstances are a little bit different here but it just when we're thinking about Bo French as as a candidate whose pillar issue seems to be what stopping the Islamification of Texas quote Islamification of Texas. Just you know we're talking about like an outsider candidate coming in and totally I think that's really interesting.

SPEAKER_02 28:28

Well and you know we saw more money come into that race it was not and it's no longer just the oil and gas companies backing right we saw uh Mir Maddelson's Texas Sands pack put half a million dollars into Wright's campaign um you know it that was immediately French who is aligned with the very anti-gambling faction of the GOP and is anti-gambling himself uh they um they came out and criticized uh Wright for taking uh Adelson's money gambling money dirty gambling money um but right can't Wright responded by saying the reason I got this money is that Merriam Adelson who is Jewish uh did does not like Bo French's past comments on uh accusing him of anti-Semitism and whatnot and we so saw this whole thing play out last year where Dan Patrick called on Bo French to resign. Bo French says he wasn't being anti-Semitic uh Dan Patrick says he was yada yada yada they'll argue about it until the cows come home except they haven't I haven't seen Dan Patrick come out and say anything about it since except he is he is endorsing Jim Wright as is most of the rest of the slate. And I think you can apply some of the same logic to why those guys are backing Mays Middleton over Chip Roy to this because they want less of a wild card to deal with uh in in uh Beau French. Um it's it's a really strange race it has been the whole time um Wright almost didn't run in the first place but he ended up running um obviously he's on the ballots and uh he did have you know he had a a very weird uh foray into this political scene where he did upset Ryan Sitton by after being outspent a lot to a little and um you know he's seeking a second term and it he is he found he has found himself in the crosshairs because uh the Dunguys see a real opportunity and it is a real opportunity to get a statewide seat uh get an ally in the statewide seat um so that one I I really have no idea how I feel about in terms of which way it's gonna come down.

SPEAKER_00 30:53

Coin toss. Yeah. Okay so after Tuesday it's of course going to be all eyes on November, right? And the governor was telling Houston donors I believe at multiple meetings this week to expect Republicans in Texas to I don't know is walloped a fair word yeah on the ballot in November Yeah. What is going I mean do you think that some of that is maybe a little bit like hey we gotta play this up a little bit so that we can have we can get a the right kind of you know interest from these donors in terms of you know consistently yes open your checkbook and make it good um I'm sure some of that is going to be at play. But there seems to just be like this broader theme that's emerged with Republicans, right? Like I believe a pollster is already sounding the some version of an alarm on uh Ragnarok we can't have a repeat Republicans should not be having a repeat of what happened in 2018 right we need to be ready we need to be prepared. So the lieutenant governor right told a big TPPF crowd recently uh we have to unite and otherwise this is going to be a really difficult election for Republicans. And I know that people like Texas House Speaker Justin Burroughs say, you know, hey we're good right in responding to lieutenant governor and whatnot. But generally it's fair to say that Abbott is essentially saying the quiet part out loud for Republicans.

SPEAKER_02 32:30

Aaron Powell Well and he was saying the quiet part not out loud because it was behind closed doors and you know there's a lot of chest thumping of course constantly Dan Patrick while he said we Republicans need to band together because this is going to be a tough year he's also talking about how an Abbott is too publicly about how James Talrico is wholly unqualified to be a U.S. Senator from Texas and that he's gonna get his butt beat but I I don't believe I don't take it face value their comments publicly because they have to put on a good face. You mentioned Burroughs's comment we're not losing the house well maybe not is there any way to really know that at this point? I don't think so and then you hear Abbott telling donors as we reported go to um I think it was Wednesday's Daily Bowl uh he talked talked to a smaller gathering in Houston of oil and gas donors um he he told him actually it was more moderated than the other one uh you know we have to prepare we Republicans have to prepare for the fact that we might lose a statewide seat. And he didn't say specifically the Senate race but everyone knows what race he's talking about particularly if if Paxton is the nominee that I mean that just seems to be the going theory that he's a weaker November candidate. That's exactly the case Cornyn is making um of course jury's still out on that and who knows how everything performs in November but there there is a very real worry. I I saw after we put this out it went of course we knew it was going to get some traction and it did which is cool but there was a lot of just hand waving in the comments about oh they're just saying that to raise money. Sure he's saying that to open checkbooks more of course but when you combine that with the fact of with the behind the scenes discussions that I know are happening and that I've talked to people about people are hitting the panic button about November. Now that doesn't that doesn't mean that Republicans are going to lose the House but you don't just have to lose the house in order for things to significantly change dynamic wise in the legislature. For sure if you lose eight seats as a Republican caucus you're in a lot dicier of a situation than where they are now. So there's there's all of course a lot more at stake than just one Senate seat in this state in either direction um but Abbott is really sounding the alarm to donors because they're gonna need all of those people to take it seriously and take it seriously enough that they don't just open the checkbook but they open it a a wide amount and they they really shell out the cash.

SPEAKER_00 35:39

What he said at the second meeting was actually even more stark was um this was at Tillman Fertita's house in Houston a larger gathering from what I understand of toners he said uh lose i Republicans could lose the house entirely total wipe he said the term he used was total wipeout of the house two state senate seats he said I don't know what those two he's talking about maybe uh SD9 that Democrats have already won in a special um Fort Worth area Fort Worth Terran County I don't know what he would say is the second one I haven't thought about that as much but uh then he said in possibly two statewide seats two not just the Senate race he's talking about another one what that is only he knows he didn't say okay can I ask a question so aside from polling right like where you have a matchup that was done out in the field you know asking people about a Talarico versus Paxton matchup and then a Taler Rico versus Corny matchup and generally I think that those polls have come back that Cornyn would be the stronger Republican not entirely not entirely okay some of them have yes some of them okay so mixed back the the most recent one that I saw was hobby school at Houston they put it out and Cornyn was tied with Talarico and Paxton was down one.

SPEAKER_02 37:14

So okay really no not much difference there. And also you know there was still I think 10% undecided oh big yeah yeah 10 to 10 to 12 13 or so um and I mean there's your guess is good as mine which way those people end up going.

SPEAKER_00 37:35

Well the question that I was trying to ask is just like what specifically is giving Republicans this idea that trouble is is has their name written on it in a few months? I mean is it like what is it is it like the national conversation is it polling that they're doing like when Ragnar put that out uh you know and when others are you know going around and saying things like Republicans could lose the Texas house or we could lose eight, nine ten seats. I mean where are these sentiments like what where is the data that's driving the sentiment?

SPEAKER_02 38:16

Well it's a it's a combination of numbers that they're seeing one is the fact that Latino voters who Republicans have really made gains with over the last couple cycles and it's particularly in 24, it's flipping on its head. No, not everyone not every uh Hispanic voter is abandoning the Republican Party but you know we're seeing like 40 to 25 splits for Democrats in in some of these polls among Latino voters which is totally different than what the returns that we're seeing in 24 for the Republican Party. Then you've got the more like independent soft Republican crossover voters um you know really upset with the direction of the GOP. And you know the argument against that from especially the the right flank of the GOP is tough luck. You know if if you're not a re this is what the Republican Party is now and if that's not you then get out. But that doesn't help you win elections. You might not need them to win the election but telling them to get lost does not help you win the election. So uh they're seeing more and more of those kinds of people just general crossover voters lean more towards the Democratic party. Then you're also seeing the generic ballot across the country but I think also in Texas um it's either heavily Democratic or it's a lot more Democratic favorable than it normally is. So Texas I I don't I don't think the um the generic ballot was not D plus nine but it was also not R plus nine where it ha or you know relative where it has been before in Texas because Texas is still a red a red state so um the the overall political environment is spooking the hell out of Republican operatives right now. And it should be uh there's a lot of a lot of displeasure with the with the GOP and particularly the administration I mean it it it's up in the air whether there's enough bleeding in that regard of support to lead to a Tal Rico taking the Senate seat or Democrats making huge gains in the Texas House or keeping Republicans at a net gain of one or two congressional seats. But the makings are there and there's a reason Abbott is preaching this sermon of doom to these donors because they're gonna need every cent they can get. You know Abbott has has promised when our first interview with Abbott he made the bold statement that he was going to flip Harris County back to red I don't see that happening right now. I don't see that happening at all. And no matter how much money he spends things can change. Maybe he comes up with a really effective messaging point but the makings are not there right now. They really are not so you know shrug this off at your own peril Republicans and Republican voters because Dan Patrick's going around talking about the need the the need from the Republican Party's perspective to not take this for granted. Abbott is too Burroughs is too because they know if it's taken for granted there will be a total wipeout okay well speaking of the Texas House there's a retiring Texas House member who's making some moves we got I guess you got your grubby little hands on a pitch deck that's been floated to offices around the Capitol about a new industry groups no okay industry groups can you tell us more please yes so this has to do with the data center fight going on and you know that's that's taking up a lot of oxygen in the halls of the Capitol of course we've already had a couple committee hearings on it and we're gonna have more but um retiring lawmaker Giovanni Capri Leon who is now also the head of the Texas Blockchain Council he and um some others that are working on the project with him are trying to get funding $1.85 million dollars for what they're calling the Texas National Security Council. It's a C4 that is designed to help brunt the PR problem that these data center operations are finding themselves in in a lot of these localities that just do not want these things at all or at least a lar uh a large and loud minority do not want these things. And Hill County Texas just passed a resolution banning them from banning data centers for a year from coming into their their county and the industry's worried about this snowball picking up the steam rolling down the hill and becoming something that they can't stop and just booting them entirely out of the state. I think Maine kind of did that but anyway there's there's already a couple operations both C4s that are trying to fight this messaging battle and Uh we've put out multiple ads of theirs that they're running, talking about the myths of uh surrounding data centers and whatnot, on water use, on power use, um, all the trying to counter all the criticisms that have been levied. This one takes a bit of a different approach. First of all, it's focused on national security and the um the need for, as they're putting it, the need to beat China in this race for AI, which requires data centers. Uh, not just AI, but quantum computing. And you know, like it was way above my head, but um I I conceptually understand it. Really, really, really, really, really fast computers. I think I got that right. Um But the uh the value add that Capri Leon sees here is that first of all, he um they they they think that not all of the needs on this messaging front are being filled, and that uh there is a a lane here for this. And uh one of the others that is working with him on this is Steve McCraw, former director of Texas Department of Public Safety. McCraw's been increasingly getting involved in politics. He's endorsed Cornyn and has appeared in ads for Cornyn. Um he's now in at least involved in this if it gets off the ground. But uh Capriglione is very is considered the most knowledgeable on all this tech stuff in the in the legislature, and he is not returning. He decided to retire. Um he uh he is both along with the blockchain council, which just kind of goes this whole data center effort goes hand in hand with that, uh, at least to some degree. And uh he feels like that um this would approach the issue in a way that that hasn't been approached yet. So um you can check out more details on uh Daily Bowl from Thursday, but uh yeah, we got kind of grubby little hands on a slide deck and started asking questions as we do. Um and yeah, it was an interesting little little scoop, little story. Uh not uh not every day you see uh a lawmaker uh starting his own or trying to start his own C4 to uh you know open the door for data centers in the state.

SPEAKER_00 46:35

Yeah, I think the data centers issue I I know Is it data or data? Either or, right? Is it I think it I think I think you can do it. Nobody's corrected me yet. So I think it's so interesting. I guess I'm really excited to see where the conversation goes next session because there's just so many different like sub-issues that you can branch off of this big mega issue. You know what I mean? Like so many different conversations to be had.

SPEAKER_02 47:04

So And you know, everybody agrees that the water situation needs needs fixed. Everyone agrees that the power situation needs fixed. You ask lawmakers about data centers, and you have people that are like, hell yeah, bring them. You have people that are like, hell no, don't bring them. I don't know how they're gonna find middle ground on this, at least at this point. They're gonna have to. But uh good luck.

SPEAKER_00 47:30

I'm excited. I am. I'm looking forward to it.

SPEAKER_02 47:33

You're just excited to watch watch it all burn, watch it all play out.

SPEAKER_00 47:39

Okay, one last topic, one more thing about the Texas house, which I'm very excited to be discussing.

SPEAKER_02 47:47

Um you're a Texas house animal.

SPEAKER_00 47:50

A house rat. Um was that the term a house rat? Yeah, I think so. But maybe, you know.

SPEAKER_02 47:56

I'm with you. I think it's it's fascinating. It's the most interesting part of this politics.

SPEAKER_00 48:01

So, so, so much fun. So, House Speaker Burroughs, Dustin Burroughs, um, is representing the Texas Tech quarterback over what? You kind of lost me like after that. I was explaining. So I edited the blurb in this week's newsletter, and it was one of those like in one ear, out the other, because it was, you know.

SPEAKER_02 48:23

That's okay. You're you're not a football gal.

SPEAKER_00 48:25

I I I do understand some fundamental concepts.

SPEAKER_02 48:29

A longhorn hat.

SPEAKER_00 48:30

Because hook them, but I do understand some fundamental concepts. I do. I do. Okay. I do.

SPEAKER_02 48:35

I'm getting so you do understand the forward pass.

SPEAKER_00 48:39

I understand that a quarterback throws the ball.

SPEAKER_02 48:42

Well, that's important because this involves a quarterback for Texas Tech, a very expensive quarterback. Um, I don't know if we talked about this on the podcast yet, but I'm sure everyone that listens knows because they don't live under a rock. Um, Brandon Soresby, who uh actually last year played at Mile La Matter, Cincinnati. And so I was more than a little butthurt to see him go, although considering the uh the um problems he has always a Cincinnati connection with always hey, it's a great town, it's a Queen City for a reason. In this case, though, it is a little problematic because uh Brynn Sorsby, who had been recruited and brought in and handed over a very large check by Texas Tech, got himself in a heap of trouble over gambling. And as more details came out, it was found out that he had placed not just thousands of dollars worth of bets, but thousands of bets on like all kinds of stuff, not just betting uh on Texas to be Texas AM. Like weird, strange sports he was betting on. Uh, not just horse racing either. So um clearly the guy was addicted, and he came out, came out and said he was addicted. Uh, he got suspended by the NCAA for a year, at least a year, I think. And now he is suing the NCAA. And it's created this weird dynamic where people who have nothing ever good to say about the NCAA are now siding with the NCAA in this lawsuit. A lot of them are Longhorn fans who just don't like tech, or AM fans who don't like tech. But just generally, like, this kid was betting on he was a runaway better on all kinds of stuff. Um, and now you have tech suing to try and reinstate his eligibility, or not tech uh Soresby, although it's all mingled together because for various reasons, but also you have representing Soresby. At least having written the brief, the original petition, is none other than Speaker of the House, Dustin Burroughs. If you go look at Soresby's petition, his filing, the first name after the whole petition was written is Dustin Burroughs now his Burroughs' firm is representing Soresby, and I don't know if that means Burroughs will be the one um you know trying the case for the besieged quarterback, uh, or if he's just he was just tasked with writing the brief. But uh it's an it's an interesting web because Burroughs, of course, is a huge tech guy. Tech grad represents Lubbock. I mean, it's it's tech through and through. Um, and then you've got the original judge who was assigned this case, who has since recused himself, was a big tech guy and a tech grad. Uh the new judge is not. He uh has a a law degree, I think, from either Houston or another smaller school than that in the in the state. But uh this is college college football rivalries are so wonderfully bountiful with drama. And when it ties in with politics, it makes it even better. It turns it up to 11. So we'll see where that one goes. But uh, you know, a lot of money on the line. I think I think it was four million dollars. Maybe that tech paid or was gonna pay Soresby if they haven't already. Um, you know, there was talk about tech suing Cincinnati and Indiana, who they allege knew about these gambling uh gambling foibles and didn't convey that. There was talk about suing Soresby himself for the money back, uh, but it looks like they're going this route where they think they have a case to make against the NCAA. And and you know, the basis of it is without going without reading line for line of what the case is, but the basis of it is that the NCAA makes all this money on gambling advertisements, they market it around, it's uh the professional leagues are shot through with gambling, uh, gambling advertisements, and um even some of them have just straight-up deals with gambling outfits. The case is that this is hypocritical for them to uh he didn't bet on his team. I don't think he I don't know if he even bet on his sport, but he certainly didn't bet on any contests where he or his team was involved, I don't think, if I recall correctly. Um and so the case is basically the c Pete Rose's case for being in the Hall of Fame, uh, which has kept him out so far that he never bet on his games. He never bet on, and and when he did, he'd bet on his team to win. So it wasn't like he was throwing games in order to make money like we've seen in some other scandals in the past. But that's the case they're making. Is it gonna work? I don't know. The N Sable A is a notoriously opaque uh entity, which is the reason so many people hate it so much. But um yeah, now they're uh in straight up legal conflict with Speaker of the House. Imagine that.

SPEAKER_00 54:30

Oh, what fun. It never disappoints.

SPEAKER_02 54:32

No, no, so much drama.

SPEAKER_00 54:35

Well, thank you so much for letting me join this week's podcast. Of course, it was a blast.

SPEAKER_02 54:41

We should kick Richie off more frequently.

SPEAKER_00 54:44

Maybe someday.

unknown 54:46

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 54:47

I feel like you guys have a good thing going on. Just vote him off the island. Yeah, just so nobody forgets that you're here. Yeah, because I'm here. Yeah. Yeah, just behind the screen, you know.

SPEAKER_02 54:57

Behind the screen, cutting up our drafts constantly, making them much better. Um, but we only have th a few days left until the runoff, and we're gonna have even more uh material to use to talk about next podcast. I'm sure it'll be uh quite interesting because there's gonna be upsets. Where they happen, don't know. There's gonna be unforeseen results. Um, but I I'm just excited to have this thing in the rearview mirror because I'm just really tired of all the rhetoric.

SPEAKER_00 55:28

It's it's gotten ready for the summer.

SPEAKER_02 55:30

Ready for the summer, of course, but it's just gotten really a lot of the rhetoric, and this is to a large degree just campaigns generally, but it's like lowest common denominator arguments about things, and basically it devolves into two children pointing at each other. I mean, you you know this, you got two young boys, uh, two children pointing at each other, calling them poopy heads. Well, that's really what these campaigns come down to.

SPEAKER_00 55:58

I think that after the runoff, you should go to the beach for four days and turn off your phone.

SPEAKER_02 56:04

I don't think I can do that.

SPEAKER_00 56:05

And announce it to your Twitter.

SPEAKER_02 56:08

I tried that last summer and it did not go well.

SPEAKER_00 56:12

Don't text. I'm in airplane mode.

SPEAKER_02 56:15

Well. But then who's gonna write the newsletters?

SPEAKER_00 56:19

Richie.

SPEAKER_02 56:20

Oh, okay.

SPEAKER_00 56:20

You know, or maybe he's there with you.

SPEAKER_02 56:22

Well, if he this is a good test to see if he actually listens to this thing, and um if he does, he'll find out that he's on the hook for let's say a whole week of solo duty.

SPEAKER_00 56:34

No, you guys actually could go to the beach, log off during the day, you know, get some sun, have a pina colada, and then log on and do a sp a daily bowl special edition from Brad and Richie at the beach.

SPEAKER_02 56:50

Maybe we'll have to do that.

SPEAKER_00 56:51

That could be fun.

SPEAKER_02 56:52

You know, that's a great idea. We'll put that in the pocket, in the back pocket, and see if we can make that happen.

SPEAKER_00 56:57

I have beach recommendations when you're ready.

SPEAKER_02 56:59

Okay. Well, we'll have to try that out. But in the meantime, we have a runoff to get to, and uh boy, it's gonna be interesting. So with that, we'll talk to you next week.