One Election Ends, New Ones Begin - Episode 31

The guys recount the biggest takeaways and surprises of the primary runoff, scratch the surface on the newly set general election matchups, and preview the Texas GOP chairman's race.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Uh and uh had a lot of people uh accuse me of being, you know, in the camp or whatever, and just this random person didn't even respond to one of my tweets, just like cold tweets out. J Richie, you know, whatever my handle is. Are you James Tallerico's secret girlfriend?

SPEAKER_00 0:30

Good morning, everyone. Happy Saturday. Well, it's technically Friday for us, but this goes out on Saturday and a much needed weekend.

SPEAKER_01 0:39

Saturday is a special day. Special day. It's one of my favorite days of the year. Yeah. It is national mint julep day. Oh. So I hope everybody is uh waking up bright-eyed and bushy-tailed and pouring themselves a nice lovely mint julep to listen to the podcast today.

SPEAKER_00 0:55

And you know what I think that means is by the time people do start listening to this, you will be at least a few mint juleps deep.

SPEAKER_01 1:03

Oh, I mean, certainly. Certainly. I mean, I never let my mint julep level fall below my like mint julep critical reserves. Like the futures on those are great.

SPEAKER_00 1:13

It's like the strategic oil reserve for you. Um yeah, that'll be in the rotation instead of your usual, which is Gin Martini.

SPEAKER_01 1:22

Yeah, Gin Martini is a classic Jonathan Ricci drink. Yeah. With a lemon twist.

SPEAKER_00 1:26

Yeah. I might have some mint julips in honor of the holiday tomorrow. Should we get some mint julips? We should do that. You know what? We haven't seen each other in a while, so that's true, though. We're not sick of each other's faces at this moment, but that may come pretty quickly. Pretty quick. But we have a lot to talk about. We're gonna talk, of course, the runoffs that occurred. Um, you know, I think everybody generally knows the results, so we're not just gonna do the run-of-the-mill. Here's the percentage, blah blah blah. We'll talk about some of the the takeaways, the surprises, um, some of the fallout since um and uh some of the developments on the general election front. And then we'll hit the RPT chair race, the thing that I've been saying we should get to on the last like three podcasts, and then I forget every time.

SPEAKER_01 2:10

We've got to get to it because the convention is coming up soon. So we will be there.

SPEAKER_00 2:14

And so if you are attending, uh look for our uh bright and sunny faces at in uh sweaty, disgusting Houston.

SPEAKER_01 2:25

Yeah, it's gonna be steamy. Oh man.

SPEAKER_00 2:28

But it should be a good time. So you know first let's let's talk about you know, you you went to the Paxton party. I went to the Cornyn party, I'm using air quotes there, it wasn't much of a party gathering. And it was really just a press gathering. There was no um they seemed to know what was coming. Gathering, perhaps. Yeah, there was a lot of depression going on in that room. Um you know, obviously Ken Paxton won uh overwhelmingly against John Cornyn. There was you know some bit of fog of war going into this where, oh, the some interesting turnout numbers in the uh in pro-Cornyn counties, at least pro-Corny counties in back in the primary, they were kind of giving uh some some people who were looking for some hope, some hope. It turned out to be all for naught, and Ken Paxton wins by 30 points, almost 30 points. Yeah. I mean it was a blowout.

SPEAKER_01 3:25

An absolute stunning victory. Uh, I think most people going into it were expecting Paxson to win, you know, it's favorable to him, the Trump endorsement.

SPEAKER_00 3:37

I mean the Calcian Calci odds had him at 95% chances of winning. Oh, of course.

SPEAKER_01 3:41

Well, that's everything. Yeah. Um but I don't think very few people were anticipating that level of success. I mean, going into it, and everybody always hedges their bets right before an election, but uh, they were saying, oh, it might be close. I think Corinne's gonna keep it within ten. You know, there was a lot of, you know, it's still up in the air. The first batch of early vote. It was over. It's over. Yeah. It's over. I mean, and it just kept getting worse for Corny as the night went on. Uh it was stunning and it and it led to interesting things down ballot uh in the other races, which we'll get to, but uh I don't think we can really state how overwhelming that that victory was. I think it's the biggest uh margin of victory uh against an incumbent senator in like since uh I think 1974.

SPEAKER_00 4:41

Yeah, like fifty years I heard. Um and you know, clearly, based on that, the Trump endorsement did not win Paxton the uh the event or the uh the election. But clearly it had an effect. And I heard I mean I heard from the Corning Camp that um you know they're they had a big, they had a lot of money, so they could afford a really prolific and thorough data operation. And they did have that. Um but what they were seeing is and they were turning people out based on that. And they that's the reason they felt at least somewhat optimistic. I mean, I don't think they thought they were gonna pull off an upset here or the odds weren't high that they were going to do that. But the reason they felt at least somewhat good about it is because they had this data operation and they saw their turnout modeling and saw the people that were uh that they had targeted in this turning out to vote. The problem is they turn out to vote for Kim Paxton. Brutal. And so um, you know, there's until you see the results come in, there is no accounting for what a voter's gonna do when they get in the ballot box. And you know, I think that's that's a big lesson to take away here. Um the other one is that the uh conventional wisdom about runoffs still holds. This is an electorate that is more energized and leans sometimes very heavily, more uh conservative on the Republican side. Um you know, we saw that play into effect in down ballot races for Democrats in this runoff as well. You know, Julio Salinas, the um the Bernie-endorsed former ledge staffer, uh, won his runoff um uh against the more moderate McAllen City Commissioner in that race, and he'll be the nominee, and that's a very interesting matchup against Gary Groves, the Republican, in that race. But uh conventional wisdom holds. Runoffs advantage the more conservative candidate in the Republican contest. I don't think we should be surprised about that.

SPEAKER_01 6:50

No. But uh definitely a show of force going into now the race against James Talarico. I mean, uh, you know, the slate is set for both parties, and it is an interesting grab bag of names down the ballot. I mean, obviously we have Paxton up top for Republicans, but then Mays Middleton held off a charging Chip Roy there at the end despite the uh late money from West Texas donor Alex Fairley. Um what what was that? Mays won by 10 points. So not as much as and this was some of the interesting there wasn't a pure ticket, there wasn't a pure slate of like, you know, there were taxing people who voted for Middleton and Orroy. Hopefully not both. That would be probably um and you know, at further down, uh the margins got even narrower with Bo French versus incumbent railroad commissioner Jim Wright. Uh where French, you know, definitely the right-wing candidate uh just barely ekes out a win, 51% I think it was. Um and then you have the uh Court of Criminal Appeals, Thomas Smith, who also won over the Moore establishment, uh uh accused uh Allison Fox. So um very interesting night. I I I was at the the Paxson watch party a little different than just a little one.

SPEAKER_00 8:20

Uh they had free booze at that one.

SPEAKER_01 8:22

Ooh, did they?

SPEAKER_00 8:25

It seems like they they uh cut out a chunk of their TV budget and just set it aside for the booze budget. Clearly it worked, okay? Uh or it didn't hurt at least.

SPEAKER_01 8:35

It certainly didn't hurt. Uh hurt me a little bit the next morning, but um, you know.

SPEAKER_00 8:40

You gotta make sure that it's you got over that hangover pretty quick, and then I get a text about um just how how much you love doing this with us. And how and then how much you love East Texas. I've never seen you beaming so much.

SPEAKER_01 8:55

This week. Uh it's been fun. We have elections, we have parties. I've been on the road uh since Tuesday when I went up to Dallas, and then I uh well really Plano is where the election watch party was, so I stayed there and then I moved uh over down to to Dallas proper uh for an event with uh one of our good buddies, Tony Ortiz, um uh over close to SMU. And then after the election, James Talerco announces like a packed week of campaigning. Yep. And one of the stops uh is Nacados, our favorite. Yeah. And so, you know, I was in Dallas just down the road, really. So I uh called you guys up and was like, hey, I'm gonna stay away from Austin for a day longer. So went out to Nacados. Um I had a rip-roaring good time down there too. And I just I love being back in East Texas, these little small towns stop in, you always just meet such interesting people, and uh it's totally fun to get out and see the state. Yeah, it is you just forget uh what the rest of the world is like when you're trapped inside a city surrounded by towers, and the five G's are cooking our brain cells.

SPEAKER_00 10:13

It wasn't just five G's cooking your brain cells this week.

SPEAKER_01 10:16

I was getting cooked. Man, they slapped me in an oven.

SPEAKER_00 10:20

And we you know, we just found out you have an announcement to make. You are dating James Tallerico, according to one Twitter user.

SPEAKER_01 10:28

Yeah, so got to the event, do exactly what I did at the packaging event video, tweet, post, whatever, just covering it. Uh and uh had a lot of people uh accuse me of being, you know, in the camp or whatever, and then just this random person didn't even respond to one of my tweets, just like cold tweets out. J. Richie, you know, whatever my handle is. Are you James Tallerico's secret girlfriend? Which at this exchange are you? It's like, what, me? So very funny. It's just uh you know, something I've always said is hooting is the gateway drug to hollering. And you've always said this. We were doing a lot of it this week. A lot of hooting hollering. There was a lot of hoot and hollering at the Paxton Party.

SPEAKER_00 11:24

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 11:25

Um, you had a lot of big names there. You had a lot of other elected officials there. Brandon Gill, U.S. uh congressman, kind of a rising star in the Republican Party. Uh you also had the GOP party chair, Abraham George was there.

SPEAKER_00 11:40

Which is interesting foreshadowing for something we'll talk about later with the RPT chair race.

SPEAKER_01 11:44

But there was also a number of house reps like Shelley Luther, uh, and uh some big uh people in the conservative media ecosystem, um, and a lot of press. There was a lot of foreign press too. Oh, really? Um yeah, the risers were just packed with cameras. I mean, you know, I was roving around uh checking each of the open bar stations, making sure everything was buttoned down. Um and as you walk in front of the media riser before it starts, if you turned and looked, it was like staring into the blast of a thousand white hot suns, all the camera lights and stuff. Uh so it was it was definitely where the motion was on Tuesday night.

SPEAKER_00 12:28

Um the one I was at was quite a bit different. Yeah. And uh it was at the JW Marriott in Austin. Very nice hotel.

SPEAKER_01 12:38

Oh really? Yeah, I wonder if they look at that GOP Unity already. Wow, how do they do it?

SPEAKER_00 12:44

Um so the you know, I get to the the JW and it's not just a lot of press, it's all press. In fact, the event that Cornyn was having was not really an event, it was a glorified press conference because I think he saw the writing on the wall, and um he results start coming in. You know, there's a bunch of national reporters, TV reporters, you've probably seen them yelling, screaming questions at at uh elected officials on the Hill uh quite often. I I uh you know, I don't there was a guy who looked like he who dressed like he might be with TMZ, but I don't know if he was with TMZ for sure. Um I didn't recognize him anyway. It's one of the three guys that they have hired for that. But anyway, um, you know, a lot of a lot of cameras uh reporters getting their uh previews in um you know shout out Ryan Chandler, saw him after hadn't seen him in a while because he's up at up in uh Dallas for uh NBC. Um but he actually had I was listening to some of the the previews before the announc the race went final and he had the best one of the sl the array that I heard. Um just a student got it hit the nail on the head with his analysis, and then um sure enough, results come in.

SPEAKER_01 14:11

You never you're never that kind about my analysis, Brandon. No. I had the perfect analysis going into election day.

SPEAKER_00 14:17

Yeah. What was that analysis?

SPEAKER_01 14:19

Well, you know, uh what I was hearing from people on the ground is that the runoff election was going to come down to which candidate got more votes.

unknown 14:26

Wow.

SPEAKER_01 14:27

People loved it. Everyone write that down. John Cornyn loved it.

SPEAKER_00 14:30

Never forget that. Yeah. He did.

SPEAKER_01 14:33

Uh so he quote tweeted it and said genius. And then well.

SPEAKER_00 14:37

Well, not only are you James Talarico's girlfriend, you are also apparently John Cornyn's strategic advisor. Yes. With that. There you go. Yes. A man of many hats.

SPEAKER_01 14:47

The rumors and allegations about me are varied. And they're all true. Every single one. Even the ones that contradict each other. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 14:56

They're all true. So you know, I think it was like 745-ish. We had gotten enough. Early vote was in, it was still trickling in some places that are slower to report, but broadly speaking, we knew it was where it was going. We started getting some election day in, and then uh the staffer for Cornyn comes up and says uh the senator will be speaking at 8.15. We get to 815, nothing yet, a few more minutes go by, and then the procession comes in. Um and it was, of course, Cornyn alongside his wife and two daughters, and then a lot of his um, you know, top brass campaign workers, and um i clearly they had a very uh s a much smaller viewing of the results. It was not anywhere close to what you know the the block party was that Paxton was having. So he gets up there and he you know obviously is con conceding. He uh says the voters have spoken, I must respect that, I will support the GOP ticket. And then he did he say Paxton by name at all? No, I don't think so. Um somebody asked him as he was finishing and leaving the room if he's gonna support Ken Paxton, and he said, I will support the ticket, and I'll have more to say later. I don't know if he's had the more if he's said the more yet.

SPEAKER_01 16:26

He's been having some interesting tweets.

SPEAKER_00 16:28

Yeah, there was a tweet about a scorpion and a frog that uh was getting some interesting theory theorizing from uh you know the national media that usually gets these things wrong. Um but he I one thing that stuck out to me was um he he quoted Teddy Roosevelt. Dang, are you alright? You're dying right now.

SPEAKER_01 16:55

I'm sorry, I swallowed my water rock. Water. It is water today. This is why I don't drink it, this will kill you. I'm sorry.

SPEAKER_00 17:04

Okay, you good? Yeah. Alright, so Cornyn in the speech, he quotes, you know, the famous Teddy Roosevelt, man in the arena quote. But normally when you hear people say that, they stop after the the first like two sentences. But he went through the whole thing. And um it was How long did that take?

SPEAKER_01 17:23

Two, three minutes?

SPEAKER_00 17:25

Probably two minutes. It wasn't that long. But um, you know, the I thought the more interesting part of that quote was the tail end and and failing as a as a a man in the the arena, and it was really emblematic of not just Corny failing in terms of electorally, but a new chapter in the Republican Party and the dominating force within it. Um, you know, we've talked before about this is not just the last ride for Big John, but this whole class of the old guard. The old guard Republicans are not entirely extinct, but largely so now. And the only one that remains is Greg Abbott, who was elected, who was on the a statewide elected official in 2002 when Republicans took the state over wholesale. Um and Abbott is a much different politician than he was back then. It's it's a different era. It's it's a different GOP. And this loss signifies that I think more than almost anything else.

SPEAKER_01 18:36

So true. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 18:38

What was your what was your biggest takeaway? My biggest takeaway from anything, doesn't not just the centers.

SPEAKER_01 18:43

Oh, okay. Uh well the takeaway from last takeaway from the party is that you know there really is like real momentum around it. I think there's been a lot of talk about how much momentum and energy in the Democratic Party there is or Talarico. Um and that's a common thing where you know you really have a high energized Democratic campaign in Texas. We've seen Beto and things of that nature before. And the Republicans are more kind of, I don't know how you would say it, like stodgy or just not the same level of uh kind of star juice that the the Democrats typically have at the rallies. Uh but there was a lot of that at the Patch thing. I mean, it was a uh electric room. It was packed, there was tons of people, tons of supporters, um, and everybody was very jazzed up about it. Uh so uh I think we have a very uh good stage set for a fun election going into November here at the top of the ticket. Uh down ballot um really, you know, we going into it, we always said that the attorney general's race was the one that was most interesting to us. So that was the one that I was the most up in the air about. I had no idea. Obviously, I think So were the two camps. Yeah, I I if I uh if somebody put a gun in my head and forced me to like prediction market uh I probably would have put it on Mays since he won by almost the same margin in the first round. Yeah, it was. Uh he ran by I think around nine points that first round. It was eight to nine, yeah. Um and you know, so you know, he has that going into it. He also had the money advantage, but the way that the Chip Roy campaign ended was very strong, it seemed. They were criss-crossing the state. He's a pretty good politician on the stump. Uh and big crowds at those events.

SPEAKER_00 20:49

Something he he wasn't able to do much in the primary because he was voting in DC.

SPEAKER_01 20:55

Exactly. Uh, and then he had that huge uh money come in at the very uh tail end, and so it there was a lot of question marks around that event. Uh unless you were a Texas bullpen reader and went to Cattle Call because the cattle that was the race that Cattle Call overwhelmingly called it for Mays weeks before it happened, and you could have read it there first at Texasbullpen.com. Be sure to subscribe if you haven't. Um so yeah, it's it's interesting. Of course, now uh on the ticket you have uh for the Democratic side, Nathan Johnson. So you have two uh Texas Senate colleagues going into it, uh which you know will be interesting to see how those down down ballot statewides start coalescing and if they really become a part of the bigger, highly funded Calorico machine, or if they're all kind of just left to fend for themselves, which will be interesting because basically nobody down ballot has uh money for November aside from Tal Rico. If you look at the Democratic side. On the Democratic side. They obviously have some and maybe it comes in, but all of the money is going to Talai Rico. And maybe it's a uh rising tide, Love Saul votes. On it. But we'll see how that starts.

SPEAKER_00 22:22

Big difference between now and 2018, which is what Democrats are counting on, is no straight ticket voting. Yeah. And so uh I think you will probably see a lot more James Talarico voters and Greg Abbott voters split tickets down ballot. And who knows where they go from there. They split it up wholesale or is it literally just Tal Rico and then all Republicans? We won't know until November. But I the it's an easy obvious explanation for what we're about to see because there is no option to just hit Democrat uh the whole way down. So keep that in mind. You know on the AGs race the uh the Mays camp had a poll that had them down a few points. I think it was two to three about two weeks out from the election. And they altered course changed up the TV spot um but you know I think something the thing that going into the the election both camps thought it was going to be a coin flip. They didn't know which way it was going to go. They thought it was going to be close either way. And I think the thing that took it from that from a let's say narrow Middleton victory to a 10 point victory was this calcified ticket we saw between Paxton who way overperformed in terms of margin what most people thought was going to happen. You know, look people thought it was going to be between 10 to 20 points. I think that was generally the consensus obviously disagreements here and there about what the margin would be for Paxton and it was 28 almost 30 points. Well I think you saw a spillover from sure you can throw the Trump endorsement for Paxton in there but I don't really think that's it. I think the spillover that happened from Paxton down to Middleton down to French that saved French because he won by such a small margin that got the Paxton watch party. It was um and he was sweating bullets throughout it right I heard that from you and a couple other people the uh the calcified ticket uh it was more passive than direct because Paxton never came out and said I endorse Middleton or I endorse Bo French.

SPEAKER_01 24:49

He did endorse BoFrench.

SPEAKER_00 24:51

Did he? Yeah I don't remember seeing that it was kind of later. Okay. Well regardless French was touring with him. Yeah yeah so whether or not he did it explicitly it was implied. Yeah and then Middleton you know the implication the implications and then uh you know we broke the story about uh the leaked recording of Paxton's telling a crowd that he was going to vote for Middleton and he can't imagine Chip Roy succeeding him as AG well that served as whether it was a an a a public explicit endorsement or not that served as endorsements for both of them and then you add the fact that all three of them are on most of the slate cards that went out. Not the link letter because that had Corny at the top but most of the other slate cards that went out had those three on it. And I think I'm I'm pretty confident in saying you saw some spillover from how well Paxton did into making Middleton's margin a 10 point margin and then winning French the race.

SPEAKER_01 25:49

Yeah I would I would agree with that I did see some you know slate cards pushed out that uh had the same ticket but it was Roy on it instead of Middleton. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 26:00

Um Texas gun rights had that.

SPEAKER_01 26:02

Yeah. But obviously I think probably the grand collective of things uh much more had that type of slate on it. Uh and it was definitely true that uh really the only two people out of those who won that were campaigning pretty regularly together were Paxton and French. And Paxton was the only statewide guy to back French at all. All the other ones obviously came out very strongly against it. Um which does raise you know questions uh about how powerful or much of an impact the state level endorsements have um you know obviously Dan Patrick came in very heavy for Middleton and he won uh but Patrick uh also went in for Jim Wright uh Abbott went in for Jim Wright all the other railroad commissioners went in for Jim Wright basically everybody the speaker did uh but not Paxton and Jim Wright lost. Now barely that was it was the tightest race yeah um which is very interesting just the the vote spreads on all of them are are very interesting. Yeah um so yeah there's uh there's still a lot to digest on it all uh and obviously going into November will be fun too I'll be excited to see some more data breakdowns from the big nerds uh who understand these things much better than I do.

SPEAKER_00 27:39

We uh we have the the congressional slates set now too there was a number of Trump endorsements played well there of course um and then we have the state ledge we saw Hubert Vaux lose he is now the third House incumbent to get ousted in his bid for re-election I'm sure we'll have some in November that that happens to but as of now in the primaries it's just three that lost two Democrats and one Democrat Vowe and then Stan Kitzman and Cecil Bell on the Republican side. Oh wait you're right Chris Turner sorry two Democrats and two Republicans so four. But you know after a a cycle in 24 where we saw a ton of people get ousted that's a substantially smaller number we saw a reversion to the mean in this primary in terms of the House and turnover in that in terms of uh members incumbents who are running for re-election losing I think my my biggest surprise um let's see my biggest surprise was probably Lujan getting blown out as much as he did. I actually thought Lujan would have won would win because he has worked that district so well for so long and he's a a very formidable campaigner. But I mean you said it a minute ago the Trump endorsement just played too heavily and there was no overcoming that. And Carlos de la Cruz is now the the nominee there and he will face uh Johnny Garcia which we had that was a contest that was interesting with the uh with Maureen Galindo the hard left candidate who Republicans at least uh it seems like Republicans were were trying to prop up with some shadowy money um through via a pack uh that really has no ties to anyone except for a couple screw ups that kind of have tied it back to uh GOP sources but um you've got uh things set down in South Texas um that's been set since the primary Briscoe Kane lost to Alex Mueller that was not really a I don't think that was a surprise because of how much money was spent and then also the Trump endorsed Trump endorsement. So everything's set for November and now it is on uh did wait did you have any big surprises or no no okay well now it's set for November and that brings up GOP unity. We've heard a lot of ink spilled and a lot of statements made by politicians about the need for Republicans to unite in order to avoid any kind of disaster in November this this statewide ticket is interesting because there is a lot of either very public enmity between some of these candidates or private rivalries going on behind the scenes that have maybe even more than rivalries I mean I'm talking backroom, backstabbing brawl barroom industry level it's good stuff. No, I don't think that's going to stop them from working together. They all realize ultimate when it comes down to it they would all rather have each other to deal with than any Democrat to deal with nobody fights like family. Right. So it's it won't it won't last too long but we are seeing some uh kumbayaing some kumbayaing but also a little bit of not where we saw Bo French tweet out uh thanks to most of the Republican slate that called him and congratulated him on his victory and of course French is a a bombastic individual and he there was a reason that so many officials rushed to endorse Wright in that race because they did not want French to win but now he's won and he is the the candidate for railroad commission. So most of them are putting that behind their they're letting bygones be bygones uh I thought it was interesting that he posted this intentionally leaving one person off because at least according to him uh there had been no overture made Dan Patrick Bo French left that left his name off that list of candidates of other officials who didn't who uh called and congratulated him and said hey we're all on it's on the same team for November um Patrick of course called for French's resignation last year as Terrant GOP chair after French posted some Twitter poll about uh who was the the bigger threat to the country Jews or Muslims that did not sit well with Dan Patrick and he called for his resignation which French promptly ignored and then did resign but to run for Railroad Commission which he is now the GOP nominee and you know it's a Republican state still presume front runner for this seat.

SPEAKER_01 32:55

Going up against Rosenthal right John Rosenthal state rep.

SPEAKER_00 32:58

Yep they'll get over it and you know really the the people that have more to be um irritated with French over are it's not Dan Patrick it's the two railroad commission candidates because they're the ones that are gonna have to work with him. Yeah. Now they're all singing from the same hymn. It's a it's all hunky dory as as far as uh Wayne Christian and Christy Craddock and now both French are concerned. So I think everyone will eventually get over it. But it is just an interesting little uh storyline to follow uh at this moment.

SPEAKER_01 33:30

Well yeah there's just so many of them obviously when the first round of the primaries happened and Huffein's ran away with the Comptrollers race that was the one that left everybody's jaws on the floor because him and Abbott obviously bad blood and I think there's been a lot of work to patch that up some um uh but now there's it's just great it's just good stuff. Yeah. Hi everyone we'd like to thank the sponsor of today's podcast the Lowy Law Firm for over twenty years Adam Lowy has helped injured Texans recover and heal. From car accidents to dog bites Adam Lowy is there to help and gets results. Go to LowyLawfirm.com to find out more and get a free consultation. Adam of course is very well known on Twitter for his commentary and observations on Texas politics so be sure to give him a follow as well. Thanks to our sponsor the Lowy Law Firm let's shift over to the and I think a lot of this is everybody's gonna be in the same room at convention.

SPEAKER_00 34:35

Yeah let me let me touch on one thing before we get to that uh Abbott postmortem on this. Oh yeah he you meant you mentioned Patrick's endorsement of Middleton and I think Patrick had a fairly good night I don't know off the top of my head what his win versus loss breakdown was but Abbott had a pretty bad one in terms of his endorsements um kind of almost all season. Yeah and if we're including statewide races and competitive run congressional runoffs Abbott lost uh Kelly Hancock Jim Wright Briscoe Cain Abraham Enriquez and John Lujan his only victory was Nate Sheets over Sid Miller which I think Abbott will take you know that is probably the biggest whole primary I'd say um and you know it's it's no secret that Abbott and Sid Miller disdain each other. And so I I think Abbott's going to look at that win-loss record that heavily leans loss and be like well I got rid of Sid Miller but still you know it's worth noting that he lost to Huff Heinz in that Hancock lost uh not only lost but didn't even force a runoff and then um these congressional races and Abbott got out early on some of these like Briscoe Kane and John Lujan it's also worth noting that Kane and Lujan stuck their necks out and voted for the redistricting plan and promptly got snubbed by the president who wanted the redistricting uh map passed. So you know I I'm sure there's some uh irritation about that and of course right but um you know it's I think it's worth noting that Abbott's after 2024 when Abbott had such a successful cycle down ballot he did not have one this time around.

SPEAKER_01 36:27

Yeah. And I mean we could even probably extend it a little further on you know the bad night for Abbott quote unquote because it was pretty clear while he did not come out openly in the Senate race his preferred candidate was was John Cornyn like there's uh a lot of different things you could kind of point to to that as well. And you know him and Paxton have had uh a lot of TIFs but of course anybody in Texas politics has had their TIFF with Paxton as well. Um so the the it's just such a rich uh conundrum for for everybody on it. But conventions around the corner and everybody's gonna be in the same room.

SPEAKER_00 37:13

Yeah it's gonna be fascinating will it depends on where you are maybe I will be you'll be you'll be the party I'm gonna have your walking party corner man um yeah it's it it's an interesting you know let's set the stage we've got the GOP in what is uh for all intents and purposes very likely to be the most difficult cycle since 2018. Maybe more difficult maybe less I think there's a lot of time between now and then for dynamics to shift but maybe they don't maybe it's exactly where it is right now and Republicans are sweating bullets about what's coming in November um by the time we get to September and people start really paying attention to this. But we've got this convention we are coming off um a legislative session where Republicans uh have a newfound camaraderie the kind of the the likes of which we haven't really seen uh policy wise in a while you know the the last few cycles we saw the the whoever was the Texas GOP chair in open warfare against the speaker of the house that is different now and you've got not just that but you've got the speaker of the house going to speak at convention of course you have the lieutenant governor speaking there you also have the governor too now the governor in 22 he quote appeared at convention but really he had a competing event outside across the street uh that was in Houston he was in the middle of a TIFF with Texas GOP chair Matt Rinaldi at the time and then at the last one in 24 in San Antonio he uh zoomed in videoed in from a campaign event with Katrina Pearson up in Rockwall to address the convention point being this is the first time he's going to be in the room with these uh delegates and it's I don't know the exact number but somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 delegates that will be there. It's a massive event it's the biggest party convention in the country and what happened the last time a candidate and a statewide elected official who has had their brushes with the grassroots wing of the party got up and gave a speech oh let's think let's think let's think oh right that guy John Cornith Yeah and what happened to him he got booed he got booed um and it has haunted him ever since you know that wasn't the only reason he lost re-election or even faced a tough primary but it was a significant part of it and you know the last thing any of these guys want is an audio clip like that. Yep or even in the moment to be delivering their remarks talking about the need for GOP unity and to get booed off the stage. No I think it's it it's notable to say that these specifically Abbott and Burroughs are sticking their necks out as kind of an olive branch after the session that happened to what is what would normally be a very hostile environment for that type of Republican. But there has been a peace that is broken out between historically warring factions because of that which passed last session. Now I'm sure we'll get to this when whenever the speaker politics really heat up that's causing problems for Burroughs on the Democratic side but the makings are there for general peace at this convention but I don't think it's gonna happen. I think they're gonna get booed and heck Dan Patrick might get booed there was there were some policies passed that he got a lot of stick for from that wing of the activists. Now is it of a group of a uh an assembly hall of 5,000 people is it a hundred people booing or is it the entire freaking hall like it was with Corny it's a big difference obviously but there are there are people that are that are delegates to the convention that are still mad and they're not gonna they're not gonna change that. They are in the hero Onodas.

SPEAKER_01 41:40

Cross section of who goes to convention as delegates would be very similar to the type of people who show up for a runoff election. They're typically going to be your highly plugged in uh really into it people highly engaged activists a lot of grassroots and that's what you know to your point led to a lot of the disagreements between the party apparatus and the elected officials because it is this highly concentrated level of uh I won't say like radicalism, but certainly they're not establishment type folks and it definitely sets the stage to where uh there might be some embarrassing moments for sure.

SPEAKER_00 42:26

I mean there's a world in which the only uh elected official statewide who speaks and doesn't get booed is Ken Paxton.

SPEAKER_01 42:35

Which gosh you just think back to impeachment up to now what a what a journey in Texas politics that's been happening right now. What was it Mitch Little went back three years Mitch Little obviously one of Paxton's impeachment defense attorneys who then went into the And I believe an avid listener of the Texas Bullpen podcast.

SPEAKER_00 43:00

Yeah I'll probably get a text about this so be careful about what you're about to say.

SPEAKER_01 43:04

Okay sweating right now I'm gonna get booted at convention I'm gonna boot just a random guy I'm gonna boot you no he he retweeted a uh clip of I think Ann Johnson one of the impeachment uh managers talking about how you know this is the Rubicon that they're crossing with Ken Paxton we either get him or Lord help us all and it's for that side you know Democrats and that side of the Republican Party that supported and encouraged the impeachment it's a Lord help us all break glass in case of emergency and then even that wasn't enough. Yeah. Uh 150 million dollars and now here we are.

SPEAKER_00 43:50

You know what's also interesting the other night that I just remembered as you were talking about that you know who the first person was to call the race for Paxton? Dustin Burroughs. He was calling a lot of the races early. I mean you clearly could. It was over. So it wasn't like he was going out on a limb. Yeah. But he I think that was pretty deliberate for him to be the first one. And uh he um uh he of course voted to impeach, was one of the sixty things. New member Yeah, right. He has since made uh improved things with Paxton. You know, they worked together on the lawsuits about um the cornbreak, right? So uh clearly there's an olive ranch being extended there, and um that's that's just stuck out. It really did.

SPEAKER_01 44:43

No, it was that was a notable thing. Um so ta just talk more about the actual GOP party chair race. Yes, it's heating up, it's developing. Obviously, we made mention Abraham George was at the Paxton Watch Party in Paxton, has endorsed uh George for re-election. He had endorsed George uh and was, I think, kind of the wing that propelled George into that position uh the first time around. But uh he's not gonna go unchallenged. No. And there's uh what's the lay of the land? What are we looking at here?

SPEAKER_00 45:21

So first, convention is not just a chair race. They they get there, they the committees start working on uh uh narrowing down either the the proposed party platform or the legislative priorities. There's a lot of candidate. So i that happens during the week. Then you get to the chair race, all of the Senate districts meet in conventions. And the um in order to get to the floor as a chair candidate, you have to win th I believe three SDs um in order for your nomination to be considered for for a floor vote. If you don't get that, you're not making it there. And I believe last time gosh, it was George obviously, Dana Myers was I wouldn't call Dana Myers establishment, but she was kind of more her constituency was like TFRW and the more establishment-minded uh activists that that do exist. Um it came down to those two ultimately. I think there was one or two others that made it to the floor, maybe not, but uh regardless, they will meet in those SDs. You have to win three to get to the floor, and then it's all hell can break loose, and you um uh you have these, let's say, 10,000 delegates all in the room voting on the candidates. Abraham George, current Tex GOP chair, he was the anti-house, anti-uh establishment candidates, or at least the one that fit that mold the most last time, but now he's been uh tainted by uh that same thing he ran against last time, because he has made peace with Burroughs. He also for a while made peace with Cornyn.

SPEAKER_01 47:22

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 47:22

And that rankled people in the Paxton camp. George was always personally pro-Paxton. But for a while he decided he needed to, especially when it was a competitive primary and nobody knew which way this was gonna go last summer. He was being increasingly friendly to Cornyn um as a that's his role as party chair, not to pick sides in this in such a contentious primary. But that's come back to bite him, and now he is facing challenge from his vice chair Dorinda Randall. They those two ran as a ticket last time, and as uh party rules are you have to the the chair uh if the chair's a man, the vice chair has to be a woman, and if the chair's a woman, the vice chair has to be a man. So George he is running on a ticket with Amanda Hopper, state rep Andy Hopper's wife. He she was, I think, uh third, fourth, or fifth among the options that they thought about. I think Macy Middleton was throwing around, Macy Middleton's wife, that didn't go anywhere. Uh, they settled on Amanda Hopper. They're running as a ticket. Durinda Randall is running on a ticket with David Covey. David Covey, who ran against Dade Phelan and almost beat him. But also, I think this is the even more interesting part. David Covey, who was the more establishment pick for chair back in 21 when Alan West resigned to go run for governor, they had to replace him. Matt Rinaldi won. Matt Rinaldi was the candidate of the hard right back then, and David Covey was the candidate of whatever the not hard right is. It's all relative because there's really no there's really no rhinos on SREC or having any Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 49:24

Well, so many of these races, you know, and you'll sometimes catch us hesitating about how what type of nomenclature to use because so much of it comes down to not actually what the policy differences are, but just jockeying for position, you know. Can I paint my opponent as X, Y, Z, and in order to do that, I'm gonna, you know, stake out this or whatever. Like it's all not all, but a lot of it is positioning, and that's just what politics is as well, especially on something like this, where it's like, okay, the establishment quote unquote candidate for chair goes on to uh be the champion heralded to try to knock off the like great big bad of GOP establishment, you know, two cycles ago, uh uh or last cycle, um of Dade Phelan, you know. Uh and it's just how the seas change, you know.

SPEAKER_00 50:26

Um it is one of the one of my favorite themes to look back on is going era to era, however we define that, and seeing the strange bedfellows that develop or change and and and deteriorate uh over the years. Um, you know, there's a lot, there's quite a bit of that. Um and so now you have Abraham George, who ran ads against Dustin Burroughs in the speaker race last in late 24, early 25, and was stumping against him for speaker alongside Ken Paxton, now in tepid alignment with the speaker, yeah, because George George's position is we actually got a lot of what we wanted as a party. I think it was the numbers 43 or so RPT priorities passed.

SPEAKER_01 51:20

You know, I think a lot of the credit for people laying down their arms has to go to Speaker Burroughs because he's been extremely adept at navigating that. Now it's caused you raised it earlier, caused problems with him.

SPEAKER_00 51:34

It's a bit of a zero-sum game.

SPEAKER_01 51:36

Yeah. Um on the other side of the aisle, but that's you know, when it comes to things like convention, having problems with Democrats is not a bad thing. Yeah. Um if you're trying not to get booed off the stage or challenged or, you know, something spy this wing of the party. So uh Yeah, there's been a lot of work done as well. For as much as we talk about how there might be animosity between uh the different parties and peoples, there there has been a lot of work and legwork done to mend fences and patch things up and I think a big reason is that everyone is so tired of the not just gridlock, but the enmity and the open warfare. The round robin duck duck goose of like radicalism. Like, what if what if your guy gets elected, then you become the establishment? Yeah you know? Uh so you've got to have some level of like, okay, you guys, maybe we and then maybe we got what we wanted.

SPEAKER_00 52:40

Of course, when you get elected, it's not just becoming the establishment, it's realizing this stuff is harder than I thought it was on the outside. I've heard so many, whether it's lawmakers or uh consultants activists, whatever, get into they finally catch that car they're chasing and they realize, oh crap. Yeah. This is not what I thought it was gonna be. Um and so you know, some have gone the opposite way. Uh I call them the hero onodas. Uh that's how I've been labeling them. That's the Japanese uh soldier in World War II who kept fighting for 30 years after the war ended. That's kind of how some of these um these activists who are still waging the fight, that's how they're operating. And who knows, maybe they're successful. And they've now put George in their crosshairs as uh Texas GOP chair. Um Randall, for her part, I would listen to uh an interview she did with Chris Salcedo uh today, not exactly an impartial radio host, but uh seemed like impartial in this contest because he likes both of them. So she was talking, um, and I actually was kind of surprised by a couple things she said. Uh she didn't just go hard in the paint on um George is a dirty rhino trickster who sold out the party, which is how some people are labeling him. Uh it was more about the party needs to raise money better, the party needs to have better infrastructure, which, mind you, is also all things that Abraham George is talking about, too. And they have actually built some infrastructure. Is it enough? Is it ever enough, especially in a cycle like this for the party? But um it's uh it's not as one-dimensional of a challenge as I had thought previously. Um, you know, there's there's momentum behind her. The two RNC committee men, uh committee peoples, uh Robin Armstrong and Debbie Jorgados are both backing. Uh Dorinda uh Ken Paxton endorsed Abraham George, which is a really big one, I think, for that race.

SPEAKER_01 55:03

Um it very well might end up, you know, to your point earlier of Paxton having potentially the best chance of not getting booed at convention, which to my knowledge, it's not confirmed that he'll be speaking there yet.

SPEAKER_00 55:17

No, I just kind of assumed he would be because he's the top of the ticket. Yeah. And frankly, it would be a big story if he's not.

SPEAKER_01 55:24

Yes, it would be. Uh to my knowledge, he's not yet. Um maybe that's changed without my knowing it, but uh it might come down to Paxton being turnout. Yeah, it might come down to to turn out. You know, it might come down to a situation where Paxton is the one that has to like help everybody get along. Which is, again, you know, you go back in time two days two two weeks, two years, you know, having the maybe the most fiery or flashpoint big name in Texas politics being the one that has to be like, all right, guys. And they've been working very hard to uh mend fences with the National Republican establishment, who obviously went out and just savaged him to no avail in the in the in the primary, and uh they've been working extremely hard to try to be like, all right, guys, I know you said a lot of people. Like unity. But uh, you know, them's the breaks.

SPEAKER_00 56:37

So they're all they're all professionals, and I think they'll eventually get around to it. Um, you know, Foon even started walking back some of his previous statements already. So it's it it'll happen.

SPEAKER_01 56:49

Everybody's walking a lot of things back these days.

SPEAKER_00 56:51

Yeah, I mean one of them was James Tallerico. He had some regurts this week. Yep. Uh he uh I was surprised, I was not surprised on the tactic, I was surprised on the timing. We saw immediately after, the next day after Ken Paxton becomes the nominee, this guy who Democrats have been salivating to run against for months, for a year. Instead of letting that run for a bit, letting the news cycle talk about, oh, you know, here's all Ken Paxton's dirt that we all know about. We all have we covered the impeachment. It was all over that. But this is new for a lot of national people, or fairly new. Instead of letting that go, run its course, uh, and then dumping this in the summer when nobody's paying attention, Talarico came out and he he g started he was, of course, getting hit by Republicans on some of the things he said previously about six genders, about um some of the religious things, gone binary, non-binary. Um and he c his response was, yes, I've said some things that I regret. I've I'm man enough to know when I miss the mark.

SPEAKER_01 58:00

And then accuse Paxson of clipping his cringy comments for political purposes. Yeah. Which is, you know, also just how campaigns are. But I just for the life of me, I can't figure out why they decided to do this now. Well, it's it's very interesting too. I saw uh some video um as I was driving in uh from East Texas this morning where even last month Tal Rico was doubling down on his comments. He was like, if you have a problem with that, take it up with uh you know the Apostle Paul and stuff like that. And now this month, not only just a shift, but I mean a radical reversal of it. Um I was talking with him a little bit last night at the rally, and I was asking him about specifically some of his prior comments on the criminal justice system and the prison system where he had called on his supporters to dismantle that prison system of inherent violence, and he uses the same line of like, look, I've missed the mark in the past on stuff. It's like I don't think that's gonna be a good one. It's an interesting strategy because here's the balance. You know, you the same kind of function uh is operative in the Republican Party as well. In order to win a primary, you have to be a certain level of true believer in the party, hence why Paxton beat Cornyn. Um while Tallerico and Crockett, I don't think, were very different ideologically, right? Tallerico reached that level because of his liberal bona fides. Uh and you risk uh deflating your base by reversing on your long-held positions.

SPEAKER_00 59:50

This is the this is the dilemma every candidate that finds himself out out of a primary into a general faces. Yeah. How do I moderate myself enough? We'll see it from Paxton. May not be to such a degree. I think it will of course it'll happen. Um it will vary on degree base candidate to candidate, of course, right?

SPEAKER_01 1:00:11

But also the thing, too, they're not people aren't attacking Paxton necessarily based on his policies.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:18

Yep. It's all personal. It's all personal.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:21

Uh and it's all stuff that's already happened. You know, so it's not you can't really moderate that. Um per se.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:30

It will be fascinating to see how they Tal Rico's camp responds to that going forward if it changes.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:38

It has been so interesting to me uh throughout the s campaign season so far, and throughout almost all the races, how everybody just picks up. Uh it's almost like a relay race on campaign messaging. You know, we saw it in the AG race very clearly, where you have first round Aaron Wrights, the Paxton uh backed guy, uh the most fiery out of everybody, launching uh nicknames and attack lines against all the other candidates. He gets knocked out in the first round, second round, Roy Middleton. What do both candidates do? They use Aaron Wright's lines against each other. And now we see it in the Senate race as well, where we have had $150 million of Ken Paxton is a crook, he is corrupt, he is XYZ, a cheater, uh pedophiles off. Yeah. Uh Corning goes down in a uh ball of smoke, and the baton on messaging gets passed to James Tallerico, who whose ads could have been cut by the Corning campaign so far. Now, maybe we'll see, you know. I'm sure we'll start to see some vocation.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:06

No, I don't think we'll go that far, but we I think we will see some hits on Trump because Yeah, on Trump and probably abortion as well.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:12

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:13

Um Although that didn't mean All Red ran on abortion heavily in 2040 and didn't do a damn thing.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:21

Yeah. So but of course Tel Rico would maybe say All Red was a mod uh was a a mediocre candidate. A mediocre candidate, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:30

It was more of a him problem than a messaging problem. Um yeah, it's we we have a long way to go until November. And you know the thing, I I was on a panel yesterday. Uh I'm pretty sure I said it there. I I've said it in conversations with people when they ask me what I think about November. We know what the landscape looks like right now. Yeah. We do not know what the landscape will look like after Labor Day. What's the economy like? Does Trump somehow find an issue that rebounds some of his approval ratings? Is the Iran conflict done? Um do prices, for whatever reason, start to go down? Or does it all get worse for Republicans? It could go either way. Really, there's no way to know.

SPEAKER_01 1:03:19

And if there's one true thing in politics, is that it's never beyond anybody's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Yeah. Like it's the the most common thing that happens. Uh candidates don't win, they lose. Yeah. Um so it's yeah, I mean, we really won't know who's won in November until uh after it happens.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:43

And all the ballots are count it up and whoever has more wins. Well, say you can say the same thing about uh the George Randall race for Texas GOP chair. I mean, it's it's up in the air right now.

SPEAKER_01 1:03:54

It's really a there's And that's a more volatile situation.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:58

Because you get people in a room, you get certain pitches made. You know, take for example, um Matt Makoviak ran for RPT chair last time, and he his case was that Abraham George is inept and incapable of running the party. Um well he got gets up on stage and gives a speech, and it was very lexury to all the the delegates there, and it was also um very th the tone at least, I don't remember every word he said, but the tone at least was i'll or at least a large number of you don't know your rear end from a hole in the ground, and I'm here to to fix it. Give me the the reins, and I'll it didn't work. Shocking, I know, right?

SPEAKER_01 1:04:51

What do what was he what's he doing now?

SPEAKER_00 1:04:55

He was the comms director for Gorny. So uh it matters the point being it matters what is said on stage. Yeah. It doesn't as much matter, nearly as much, what is said in a room full of people on the campaign trail. Yeah. Because it's just a different environment.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:15

It's a highly distilled moment.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:18

And also personality plays far more too. For example, uh Randall is going around telling people she's gonna clean house of RPT staff when if and when she wins. And the name I've heard her heard that she has told people she would hire to run things is actually the former executive director, Jen Hall, who she resigned, she was about to be uh removed from her position, so which came first chicken or the egg on that? Um there's no love lost between her and Abraham George. And everyone's gonna have their opinion, or everyone who ca who gives a rip about this, is gonna have their opinion about who's been better running through. Things or not, uh, whether she she was good enough. Um, and there are people that that take her side on it. And you know what? It is possible that that moves the needle enough for Randall in certain rooms for her to win this contest. So it's just a totally different dynamic. Um, but we'll be there. It'll be a lot of fun. If you're happen to be there, come say hi. Uh come give us the scoop on whatever's going down.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:24

Come give us a boo.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:25

A boo or some booze. That would be nice too. That's a good idea. Although by the time we get to that point, Richie's liver might be just shriveled up and I have a couple extras in the closet. Oh, you do? Wow, that's a nice thing to hold.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:38

I've been 3D printing them. Yeah, we'll be at the Democrat convention as well, and I'm sure we'll talk about that chair race too.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:46

So far, it's not been as uh electric.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:49

There's been some sparks.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:51

There has been. But I wouldn't say it's developed full throttle yet. What?

SPEAKER_01 1:06:55

RIP to our buddy.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:57

To our buddy.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:58

Yeah, James. You cut the stray.

SPEAKER_00 1:07:02

Oh, yeah. That's funny. Um yeah, so it will be there's a lot of stuff coming up.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:08

We'll be here talking about it all, Texas Bullpen Podcast. If you're not subscribed, go to TexasBullpen.com forward slash subscriptions. Uh, get the daily emails to your inbox to stay up to date on everything happening in Texas politics, five, ten minutes, and you'll be the most informed person in the room.

SPEAKER_00 1:07:24

And if you are listening and you either have clients or you yourself want to get in front of uh the Capitol, the staff, the lawmakers, uh the general environment that makes things happen in this building, uh, you should check out our advertising, give us a uh shoot us an email. Um, we have a full rate card we can send and you know, let us know. It's uh it's a beautiful time to join up with Texta Bullpen.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:49

It is a beautiful, miraculous, wonderful time to come on board and be a part of everything that's happening. Uh and we hope you all have a phenomenal weekend. Catch you next week.