How Many American Live Abroad

How many Americans live overseas? The answer may surprise you.

In this episode of AARO Voices, Gary Zuercher speaks with Doris Speer, President of the Association of Americans Resident Overseas, to uncover the real number of Americans living abroad — and why estimates range from 4 million to 9 million.

We break down the data, the myths behind the widely cited State Department figure, and why AARO’s estimate of 5.5 million Americans overseas matters politically, economically, and socially. Plus: where Americans abroad live and the challenges they face, from FATCA and FBAR reporting to banking access and retirement barriers.

If you're an American abroad — or thinking about moving overseas — this episode is for you.

Banking for Americans Living Abroad explains why U.S. expats often face account closures and limited banking access. This episode of AARO Voices explores FATCA, compliance challenges, and practical banking solutions for Americans overseas, with guidance from the Association of Americans Resident Overseas (AARO). Learn more at
aaro.org.
~https://aaro.org/

Transcript

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Welcome to Arrow Voices, the podcast for American expatriates around the world. In today's episode, we will explore a fascinating question. How many Americans are living abroad? The answer might seem straightforward, but it's actually quite complex and uncertain. You might expect the U.S. government to have a clear answer. After all, we count citizens for the census, we track tax returns, and we register voters. But when it comes to Americans who have made their homes in other countries, the picture gets murky fast. To help us understand, I spoke with Doris Speer. Doris is the president of Association of Americans Resident Overseas, or AARO, pronounced Arrow. Aero is an organization that supports Americans living outside the U.S. They have been working on the problems of Americans overseas since 1973. When asked how many Americans live overseas, Doris gave a number, about five and a half million. But that figure comes with an asterisk. Different organizations give widely varying estimates. Some say as many as nine million, others as low as around four million. Why the discrepancy? For years, a 2016 State Department PowerPoint presentation showed 9 million Americans abroad. There was no detailed data that supported that number. It was just a number on a slide presentation, and it quickly caught on. But, Doris says, that the State Department no longer endorses this number. They have actually asked people to stop using it since it was likely an overestimate that included tourists, temporary visitors, and others. So, how did Arrow arrive at 5.5 million Americans living abroad? It started with a volunteer and a well-known expert near Washington, D.C. who modeled populations using multiple data sources. He combined United Nations and U.S. census data along with assumptions about citizenship passed from parent to child, along with naturalized citizens, and he analyzed census data from dozens of countries and from migration statistics. The result 5,538,342 Americans living overseas. And this model excludes military personnel. Doris also noted that Arrow's 5.5 million has been quoted as an authoritative estimate by the New York Times, the Boston Globe, the Los Angeles Times, the London Telegraph, Ford Magazine, and many others. Imagine if all these 5.5 million overseas Americans lived in one place, they would form the 23rd largest state in the United States, bigger than South Carolina or Alabama, and just a bit smaller than Minnesota. So why do these numbers matter? 5.5 million is a huge potential political force. However, Doris explained, some people would like to see a larger number because a larger number would mean more political influence. But we know that only one and a half million file tax returns. So a larger number of expats works against us. Because if only a fraction of the higher number file taxes, overstating the number could actually weaken the cause of Americans living abroad. So precision is important. Well, where are they? Most Americans abroad live in North America and Europe. The top countries are Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Israel, among others. Mexico tops the list with over a million Americans residing there, followed closely by Canada. Doris also pointed out that life overseas isn't easy for Americans abroad. They face unique challenges, complex tax reporting requirements like FATCA and FBAR, difficulty accessing U.S. banking services because U.S. banks often refuse to serve Americans with foreign addresses, sometimes closing their accounts with little notice, and conflicting tax systems between the U.S. and their countries of residence, and barriers to saving for retirement. That's why organizations like Aero matter. They advocate for fair treatment. They provide resources and they connect Americans abroad with each other, creating a sense of community for Americans navigating life outside the U.S. So, although we can't say with absolute certainty, experts like Errol and their consultants give us a well-reasoned figure of about five and a half million Americans living overseas today. That is a sizable community rich in diversity and challenges, helping to shape the global presence of Americans abroad. Thank you for listening to this episode of Arrow Voices and thanks especially to Doris Speer for sharing her expertise. If you're interested in learning more or joining the conversation, visit Arrow's website at arro.org. Until next time, this is Gary Zurker for Arrow Voices. Thanks for listening.