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We talk S&P 7,500 record, NVDA, MKS, DOCS, CSCO, AMAT, BRBY, WOSG, TATE, LGEN, ITRK, III and more

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In the latest episode of the Podcast, the chaps discuss everything from markets and macro developments to takeovers and timepieces. And our tech expert Steven explains why upcoming results from chips champ Nvidia (NVDA) are the only game in town.

Coming next week: Nvidia, Marks & Spencer, and Dr Martens

James brings the bling with a breakdown of results from luxury leader Burberry (BRBY) and Rolex seller Watches of Switzerland (WOSG). He also explains why US firm Ingredion (INGR) has made a near-£6 per share offer for Tate & Lyle (TATE). He wonders aloud whether a bidding war could break out.

Steven walks us through results from Applied Materials (AMAT) and Cisco Systems (CSCO). And Ian explains why it’s felt like Groundhog Day for shareholders in 3i Group (III) this week.

Finally, the guys preview a busy week for consumer stocks including Marks & Spencer (MKS), Magners-maker C&C (CCR) and downtrodden boot brand Dr Martens (DOCS).


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SPEAKER_00

Hello everybody and welcome to this latest edition of the Shesifi podcast. And it's another rock and roll week for stock markets. We've seen the SP 500 break the 7500 barrier for the first time ever. And of course, on its coattails, NASDAQ Composite is also trading at record highs. No doubt the tech is obviously driving much of this. And we've seen some very strong results early this week. But Ian, you've also seen some interesting factors driving markets.

SPEAKER_02

Well, has to I mean you're right. If uh if US futures, which at the moment are pointing down, but if they buck up, we could be on for seven weeks of back-to-back gains from the 30th of March low. SP, as you say, just over seven and a half thousand. Uh that's an 18% rally from the low. The NASDAQ almost a well 29% rally from the low. I mean impressive stuff. You know, I remember when uh the chartists were worrying about the 200 DMA and the fact the indices were going below it. So yeah, it's it's all good. What's not so good, maybe, is bond yields. So bond yields are creeping up everywhere. US just auctioned 25 billion of 30-year treasury bonds, 5.05%. Investors haven't had a 5% yield on treasury since 2007, right? And that's down to inflation worries. But Japanese bonds have hit the highest level since the 1990s. The two point yeah, the 10-year is now 2.7. To put that in context, it was 2% in January, and it was half today's level when you go back to the beginning of 2025. And the problem is April producer prices in Japan, estimate was 3%, came in at 4.9%. Companies are pushing through price increases. So, guys, we've got to watch these PBI numbers because they're a leader.

SPEAKER_00

Slightly different over here because it seems to be more the political instability that may be coming our way seems to be what is worrying bond markets more because a change in leadership at the Labour Party obviously would include or could put include a very different um economic uh policy. So um I I guess that's what bond markets were reacting to on this side of the pond.

SPEAKER_02

Um, meanwhile, James, some uh some interesting company results we had this week, didn't we?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, we did. So it was contrasting fortunes in luxury with um Burberry. The the turnaround seems to have some traction, but the shares sold off because the guidance was pretty vague and they kind of warned about uncertainty around the whole macro backdrop. Um watches of Switzerland, nice share price reaction to a uh to a beat, good progress in the States, so very interesting there. And then we finally had a bid for Tate and Lyle, unloved kind of ingredients business. Um, the private equity firm were the ones that had been rumoured to be mulling a bid, but it's actually come from Ingredient. Um, they've made a bid at just under six quid a share. Talks are ongoing. Um, but we'll see whether a counter bid emerges, that's what I'll be keeping an eye on.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I mean, to take over's have been big news this this week, haven't they? Uh Intertech, of course, feels you're at a 9.4 billion pounds bid from its USP um EQT. Um, and also things going on at LG, Ian.

SPEAKER_02

Well, that's the rumour, Steve. Yeah, I mean, look, I'm a shareholder, so I can't complain at the six percent pop in the shares, but at long term, I'd rather it wasn't taken out. There aren't that many interesting dividend stocks out there, but yeah, supposedly, um, and then Spire, we had an uh a takeover, uh, major shareholder Tosca fund um offering £2.50 a share. There was a bid on the table at one stage earlier this year from a couple of private equity guys, but they said they couldn't quite make the numbers add up or didn't quite work for Spire. But Tosca is a big shareholder in Spire, knows it back to front, and obviously has decided actually, do you know what we'll take it out? 60% premium. What was the premium on Tate, James?

SPEAKER_01

That was similar, wasn't it? Yeah, so it's it's just under six quid. The shares have really been in the doldrum, so we'll have to work that one out. But we've got a story on the web which covers it all.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, and James, you've been looking at um one of the uh retail investor favourites, uh Scottish mortgage, which had um results, I believe.

SPEAKER_01

They had a uh they put out a briefing note, a pre-SpaceX briefing note, so just defending the valuation, yeah, which is below the uh the 1.75 trillion rumoured uh SpaceX IPO valuation. Um, in terms of the trust, you know, it's done really well, it's leaving the global sector rivals for dust, best one year share price total return, all that excitement around SpaceX. Um, and their holdings up uh 19 fold from the original investment for Scottish mortgage.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I suppose I mean investors like you know, I'm an investor in in SMT, um, but uh other exciting the holds in Anthropic, which have been rumoured to potentially buying uh an IPO, Zipline, stripe the payments business. So there's there's potentially quite a few IPOs that that might um touch on their portfolio over the coming months or or so. Um you know, back in tech world, I mean uh we mentioned uh applied materials uh on Wednesday, um and they they were very strong figures, but I mean the real knockouts were the ones we flagged as ones to watch was Cisco Systems, which which knocked the ball out of the park and you know the shares double digit rally um really is starting to really prove its kind of AI story, it's not a narrative anymore. The the numbers are coming through, it's proper revenue growth, uh proper earnings growth, and proper guidance expectations through the roof. So really interesting times on the in in the tech space.

SPEAKER_02

Oh Steve, I mean Cisco Systems, you're taking me back, it's a blast from the past. I remember the adverts on uh on TV. That was it the network for the next hundred years, yes. Well that is the 90s. Well, talking of uh back to the future or back to the future, or actually in this case, Groundhog Day, that superb film with Bill Murray. Um, that's what it must have felt like if you're a three eye shareholder this week because the stock fell out of bed when they published their fully results. The same thing happened November last year. That then it was a sort of throwaway comment by the CEO that they were finding it difficult to find new investments, and people were thinking, well, that's not really what we want to hear with the thing trading at a massive premium to nav. This time round, stock dropped, I it dropped nearly 25% shortly after the stuff staggering, isn't it? I mean, yeah. Well, the problem is its biggest holding by a long, long way is this Benelux retailer called Action, and great business, a bit like an audio a little, yeah, discount retailer. They own 65%. Now, the value of that is £23.7 billion uh as at the end of March. The whole of 3I is only valued at about £24.5, £25 billion, and action like for likes have slowed quite a lot in the first four months this year. They're doing all right last year. They actually said that in France and Germany spending is down, people are concerned about the Middle East conflict. There was a bit of weather in there which affected seasonal goods, but people have looked at it and said, geez, if this is the biggest part of the business and it's seen slow and light for lights, I'm out of here. So return to Gobbler's knob. That's all I can say.

SPEAKER_00

It raises an interesting question, though, Ian, doesn't it? It's one in a previous life we've we've written about before to what extent uh an investment trust should be that exposed to a single holding. It doesn't seem like it's very well managed, to be honest.

SPEAKER_02

Well, I I think it's a bit like your SpaceX situation where something's gone up so much in value from their initial stake. They've they've continued to add to it, sure, and they've taken a lot of dividends out of it, but it has become a really big piece. I mean, James, as you know, when the AIC talks about investment companies, they have to take three eye out because the size of the company and the size of the premium to nav just distorts the whole of the playing field for everybody else.

SPEAKER_00

So um it's not the similar story, actually, with another uh private equity trust at HG Capital, because um it's got a big stake in this company called Visma, um, which was rumoured earlier this year to potentially be doing an IPO to decide to pull in its horns on that. But again, I I think it's probably that situation, its value uh valuation has rapidly risen, and so it's become this you know, two-thirds of the portfolio or something. So, you know, I suppose it's a question of if you still love the company, then management should back it. But at the same time, investors need to be really aware that when they're buying these private equity trusts, that they are getting massive stakes in single companies.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. James, um, a few more names for you on the radar next week, no?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah, the news flow comes thick and fast in consumer. So we've got yeah C and C that's Bournemouth's and Magnus, they'll be praying for sunshine. Not there's much out there at the moment. No, um, we've got Iron Iron Brewmaker, AG Bar, a bit of pork and poultry with Cranswick, and of course, uh Dr. Martin. So um, you know, is that the retailer still making positive strides? If not, investors will put their boot in.

SPEAKER_02

Oh, yes, there it is. Um, I'll be watching out for marks. I mean, totally different end of the market, but uh, and actually, to be fair, mostly a food retailer these days, with the uh I mean, and and also if you add in a cardo retail, which has been knocking out double-digit growth for months and months, if not more than a year now. Real growth engine for the business. So they should be all right. That's their fully numbers out next Wednesday, and we haven't heard from them since January. But Steve, you see you can trump both of us.

SPEAKER_00

I mean, it's it's it's a great segue. I mean, it's it's it's really been the only show in town for the last two years or so. Uh, NVIDIA is is announcing after hours on Wednesday the 20th. Um, and of course, we all own a bit of NVIDIA, one way or the other, through an SP tracker, an Nasdaq tracker, some global index funds, whatever it might be, you almost certainly own some in NVIDIA. And there'll be a lot of pressure, really intense speculation going on around NVIDIA about what it's what's going to be happening with its gross margins, um, and crucially um the growth trends of its data center business. Um so these are the factors that are really going to drive the share price either up or down. So maybe some volatility, maybe we'll get some big spikes. Who's to say? But it will keep people on tenthooks, certainly, for for much of next week.

SPEAKER_02

And and it's not just tech stocks that will move, it's the whole market because it's so big.

SPEAKER_00

Was it five trillion now? 5.7 trillion dollars. I mean, it's just enormous. Uh, I mean and and and speaking of uh of next week as well, I mean it's worth um listeners just tuning in to uh if you know anyone who's new to investing, they they want to transfer a cash ICER into a stocks and shares ICER. We've put a lot of effort into putting out a series, an extensive series of four new investors, people or beginners coming right in from the bottom floor. Um, that most of those uh pieces are available now. The first seven are published of a 10-part series. Um so please spread the word. Um, new investors are certainly welcome. We definitely want to encourage people to engage stock markets, to engage investing. We all know how sensible that is in the long term. Well, that's probably about a wrap for it for the time being. Um, we will look forward to seeing you uh uh again next Wednesday. And uh until then, enjoy the weekend. Take care, everyone.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, cheers.