UFC IZZY vs JOE

The hosts provide predictions and insights for UFC Fight Night matchups, analyzing fighter styles, strengths, and weaknesses. They offer detailed analysis and predictions for each fight, discussing the odds, fighter experience, and potential outcomes. The conversation covers UFC Fight Night predictions, fighter matchup insights, and in-depth analysis of each fight, providing valuable insights for UFC fans and enthusiasts. The conversation covers in-depth analysis of fighters, betting strategies, and predictions for the March Madness tournament. The hosts discuss the strengths and weaknesses of various fighters, evaluate betting odds, and share insights on potential upsets and favorites in the upcoming matches.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome back to Mic'ed Up and Misinformed with your host Mad Dog and Lunch Money. Today we're gonna break down and give our predictions out for UFC Fight Night, Adasanya vs. Pipher, and at the end we'll give out um a couple more picks on who's gonna win March Madness and you know just briefly kind of go over that. I know the um we are right in the midst of the tournament right now.

SPEAKER_02 0:24

Yep, right going to the Sweet 16. Come come tomorrow.

SPEAKER_00 0:28

Yep, we got some Sweet 16 games that'll be played on Thursday and Friday, so depending on what we say today, we might pick a team that gets out in the next two days, but hopefully we pick, give you guys some teams that are at least make it to the Final Four.

SPEAKER_02 0:43

Alright, and then of course I go to Vegas last week. Lunch money's on spring break, so he meets me up with us. We didn't do the podcast, so we went and bet parlays together, and of course they hit. So we should have at least taken a photo and posted on Instagram or something just so people can.

SPEAKER_00 0:58

I know, bro, and I hate being that guy too to be like, oh, we didn't post our plays, but we hit everything. But dude, uh I I don't care what y'all think. We we slapped though, bro. We took uh we took parlay at a couple favorites and for plus money, and then we our underdog play of the day was uh Dan was it Danny Silva? Yeah, Danny Silva plus 220, bro, uh underdog cash for us too. So we we killed it.

SPEAKER_02 1:25

And I know there were some like close moments going into the decisions, but again, just if it hit and unfortunately we forgot to post it, but that's all I'm gonna say. And we had fun. Yeah, it's all good.

SPEAKER_00 1:36

Oh, and we should I should have recorded this guy, but mad dog hit all the numbers on craps and got that big bonus, the 150 to 1 odds on the on the crabs, dude. That's nuts. But this guy has probably hit all the numbers more than anybody I know, dude. This guy is a monster.

SPEAKER_02 1:56

Every now and then. I think on that trip, I think I hit the all tall small three times the whole time I was there.

SPEAKER_00 2:02

Dude, that's crazy. Some people don't hit that like if they played often for a year. I mean, that's yeah, that's not not a very common thing to to do. And then when I was rolling, I did not I did pretty well, like I profited some money, I I pissed away a good amount of profit, but uh double up. I was hit I was hitting the hard ways like crazy, but I was not playing the hard ways at all, so I probably would have made it.

SPEAKER_02 2:25

Every time I look up, this guy was hitting the hard ways. I'm like, what is happening over here? You had a you had a one monster roll though, because you racked it up. You went from you doubled your bankroll like in ten minutes.

SPEAKER_00 2:37

Yeah, I I put in like uh I put in a hundred and then I got it up to two sixty-five, and then when I left there with you, I I was at like one sixty or something like that.

SPEAKER_02 2:52

So which then covered the sports bets.

SPEAKER_00 2:54

Yeah, because I took out one sixty and I put the hundred and the craps and then sixty on sports bets, and then we turned those uh sports bets into like um well I had some extra slips from the other casino, but we ended up profiting the good amount because I mean we didn't I don't know if we got any UFC plays wrong, honestly, bro.

SPEAKER_02 3:15

No, not of course, of course, not last weekend. No, we nailed it. But see, we didn't we didn't over bet either. We kind of bet smart, but we still called it. Yeah, we're about to hit again this week, bro. I feel it. Yeah, I feel good about this card.

SPEAKER_00 3:29

Let's get it, man. Not too bad of a card. First fight on here, we have Bruna Brazil versus uh Alexia Fenara. Um, I'm not very familiar with Alexia. Uh Bruna's alright, she's 11 and 6. Alexia's 13-1, so it looks like she's a hot prospect, but I don't know much about her. Do you got an opinion here?

SPEAKER_02 3:51

I think she's just a hot prospect coming in here. I think they're giving you know Bruno kind of a last chance to uh you know stay with contract and stay on board. And I I think Alexia's gonna come in and just dominate and uh she might even be able to finish this, dude. Honestly, um the odds are ridiculous, though. Alexia at minus 750, Bruno at plus 500. So it's it's a little hard because Alexia is new to the UFC, and sometimes when people first show up, you know, they kind of have stage fright a little bit, and sometimes they're not their their selves, like the first one or two fights. So it's tough, but Bruno's been rough to watch. I feel like she loses two, wins one, loses two, wins one. She just she hasn't been able to do very well, even against like mid-tier competitors.

SPEAKER_00 4:37

And she's 32 years old, and yeah, I agree, bro. Just hasn't been impressive. You know, for her record being 11-6. I mean, if you're in the UFC and have an 11-6 record, you're like a vet who's fought everybody. You know, that's and she hasn't even really fought that great a people. You know, her last fight was a loss to Kaitlyn Souza, and then she won, you know, she she it's lose-win, lose-win in the UFC, and she's not fighting the best. So if she loses, which is looking like it, she probably will be cut from the UFC. And Alexia, 13-1, bro. And in my opinion, if you're if you're above a minus, I'll say 500 in women's MMA, that means that those odds are saying this this person's probably gonna get a finish.

SPEAKER_02 5:24

Yeah, exactly. That's why I said I wouldn't be surprised if she gets a finish.

SPEAKER_00 5:27

Well, and if it goes the scorecard, I mean that minus 500 is saying it's it's gonna be a 30-27 type decision if it even makes it to it.

SPEAKER_02 5:34

Yep. Yeah, I I don't I don't really see it going the distance on this one. And most of the girl fights I would say go the distance, but I I think they're setting setting her up to come in, you know, kind of get a nice launch first UFC.

SPEAKER_00 5:48

Yeah, she they're putting her in there for a finish. Yeah. Next up we got Ricky Simone versus Adrian Yanez. Um, dude, I can't wait to hear what the odds are here because this is such a good stylistic matchup. Ricky Simone loves to wrestle, um loves to um add up control time throughout the fight. Um not bad at jujitsu, not bad at ground impound, but definitely his ground impound. His uh strength is definitely wrestling and the grappling. You know, he doesn't want to stand a distance, whereas Adrian Yanis is primarily a boxer. You know, he wants to stand and throw hands. So this stylistically is really good matchup.

SPEAKER_02 6:29

Yeah, this this should be a good fight. I mean, this is gonna be you're gonna see a lot of you know punches thrown, a lot of strikes. And like you said, I think Ricky really uses his wrestling, keeps it short, kind of that dirty boxing, pounding ground style, and just wins by control time, honestly. I don't know if he you know he could get the knockout, but I think I think overall he wins by uh decision. So Ricky Simon is minus 142, Adrian Yannis is plus 122.

SPEAKER_00 6:58

You know what, man? I that to me that I think you know those odds sound about right. I'd put it a dang near a pick'em. It's interesting because like Ricky Simone, in my opinion, is is like a gatekeeper for the division. And Yannis, just a couple years ago, you know, when when he was on a hot streak for a little bit, um, people were saying that he, you know, I even thought at one point, like, man, he really could be a contender. But now I'm thinking, I don't even know if he's UFC caliber. I mean, where his I thought of ceiling was versus you know how the last couple years have gone recently, I don't know if Giannis is even UFC caliber, respectfully. And so in this matchup, um, I'm gonna take the vet, Ricky Simone, here, to win a decision. I I like I like Simone in this contest. I just trust him more, bro, because if Giannis gets taken down, I just think Simone has more pass to victory.

SPEAKER_02 7:52

Yeah, he definitely has more pass to victory, exactly.

SPEAKER_00 7:55

If Giannis wins, I think you have to take a KO here. You have to take the KO prop on Giannis. I don't see him piecing Simone up for three rounds and getting a decision if he wasn't away.

SPEAKER_02 8:06

Exactly. Because as soon as he starts to feel pressure, he's just gonna shoot on you.

SPEAKER_00 8:10

Yeah, and I don't know if Giannis will be able to um continue getting back up every time and maintaining his gas tank.

SPEAKER_02 8:19

I was gonna say you see those guys get exhausted, especially after defending, defending, getting up, defending, getting up.

SPEAKER_00 8:26

Yeah, so we're both rocking with Ricky Simone.

SPEAKER_02 8:29

Yeah, both rock, yeah, with Ricky and with decision, so that's a good pick. Cool.

SPEAKER_00 8:34

Yeah, I like that, bro. Um, next up we have Navajo Sterling versus Bruno Lopez. This is a good matchup, man. Um, at the light heavyweight, Bruno is 14-2, and Navajo Sterling is 8-0. He's undefeated, has not lost yet. Dude, Sterling is the absolute unit, too. That dude is crazy.

SPEAKER_02 8:55

Sterling is gonna be tough to beat, man. I don't really see any crazy weaknesses or anything. So, I mean, I think if someone comes in that just has his kryptonite, the will to get the job done. But I mean, as far as I'm concerned, I think Sterling's just kind of climbing the ropes, man, going to the top.

SPEAKER_00 9:11

And I'm looking here, um, so Bruno's on a three-fight win streak, but his most recent fight was a loss to Dustin Jacoby by KO in the first round. So I think I like Jacoby. I know he's a little bit older, but dude, if you're like, in my opinion, and uh he got a big knockout on the Dana White's contender series in 2024, but dude, I in my opinion, I just think Sterling is on another level, and I think Sterling is like in that pro he I think he's top 10 caliber in his division.

SPEAKER_02 9:42

For sure, 100%.

SPEAKER_00 9:44

This is this is a stepping stone fight for him, dude. I I'm assuming Sterling is pretty favored on the odds, but dude, I think he's a lot.

SPEAKER_02 9:53

Minus 675. Yeah, isn't that crazy? But I can see him getting a KO against Bruno Lopez, especially if he just got KO'd and his you know his button is soft. I could see Sterling getting a KO.

SPEAKER_00 10:07

Yeah, he's got he could win all three ways, in my opinion, too. So um on that one, bro. I'm I'm tempted to put Sterling on a on a parlay just because I just I feel like it's a lock, bro.

SPEAKER_02 10:21

Yeah, I think that's a that's a perfect parlay piece.

SPEAKER_00 10:25

Alright, man. So, alright, we're on board together. We're we agree on all the fights so far, bro.

SPEAKER_02 10:30

Yeah, we're riding together.

SPEAKER_00 10:32

Next up we got I'm interested what you gotta what your pick is on on this. We have Gabriela Fernandez versus Casey O'Neal. This is a good women's matchup, in my opinion. And this is at flyweight.

SPEAKER_02 10:45

I think it's a great matchup, dude. Um, it's basically a pick'em. Right now, on the one book, O'Neal's at minus 108, and uh Fernandez is at minus 112. I think on one of the other ones I saw Fernandez was the underdog. Um, but I I mean I like O'Neal, dude. I think she's a really well-rounded fighter. I think she fights intelligently, she can box, she can basically, you know, grapple or wrestle, and she does have submission abilities. I actually like her jujitsu a lot. So I think for this division, I think Casey O'Neal's uh a win, especially at these these odds. I mean, it's basically a pick'em, so you can't go wrong.

SPEAKER_00 11:23

Bro, I feel pretty confident about this pick.

SPEAKER_02 11:26

Oh shit.

SPEAKER_00 11:27

Casey O'Neal's gonna get it done.

SPEAKER_02 11:29

Oh, oh yeah, let's go, baby.

SPEAKER_00 11:33

I feel really good about Casey O'Neill. She only has two losses in the UFC. She's 28 years old. Uh Fernandez is 32. She's kind of like, she's kind of peaked already, in my opinion, where she's not like she's not still growing a lot. Her last fight was the Stuly Ranko, who isn't a high caliber UFC fighter. Casey O'Neal's, you know, losses were, you know, when she's a little bit younger, you know, they were they're like stepping stones in learning curves for her. You know, being only 28 years old, I think Casey's a top five caliber talent for her division, in my opinion. I think she's right up there at the top, and um this is a statement fight for her. I I would not be surprised if Casey finds a finish here. Um, but I feel really confident taking her regardless, even if it does go to a decision.

SPEAKER_02 12:18

I thought you were about to flip it on me, bro.

SPEAKER_00 12:21

No, dude, I like Casey, bro. Like the only time I'm fading her is if she's fighting like the cream of the crop, like at the at the top. But I just feel like this is a low level. Um I feel like this is a fight she might find a finish here. I think that she's a couple levels above Gabriela Fernandez.

SPEAKER_02 12:39

Yep. And I I think, like you said, I think she had those couple early losses and just keeps growing.

SPEAKER_00 12:44

Yeah, and she trains at a really good gym. I I'm pretty sure she's still at Extreme Couture, which Sean Strickland, Francis Nagano, um, tons of UFC fighters. It's here in Vegas, but it's one of the better gyms. So yeah, taking her to the bank, bro. Love it. Next up we got Marcin Tybora versus Tyrell Fortune. I don't know too much about Tyrell Fortune, bro, but I know that um Tybura, he's fought everybody in the heavyweight divert division, and I think he's he's like that guy that's right outside of the rankings. You know, he he's like a gatekeeper for the contenders, I guess. He he's like that 10 to 15 range fighter for me. And uh I don't know much about Tyrell Fortune, but I'm taking Tyrell in this matchup. I just think Ty Burra is on the decline and he's taking a ton of damage, and the heavyweight division needs some new people in it, they need some new faces, so give me Tyrell.

SPEAKER_02 13:42

100%, dude. I I couldn't have said it better. I I think uh Martine's on a downward decline. Like you said, he's probably still top 15 or so, but I think he's just on a slippery slope. He's starting to kind of age out and wear down. And um, Tyreel, I think this is his first fight in the UFC. I think I don't even think he did a contender series. I think this is his first fight. And he's kind of like a boxing KO master spinning back elbow type thing. So I mean, look, even look for him to get the KO here. And it's a pretty good pick'em because I don't think, like you said, nobody really knows there's not a lot of value there. So Marcin is plus 115 and Tyrell at minus 135. So I mean I love the odds there, especially for someone. I mean, I hate to say beating up on the old guy, but someone coming in here, they're using this to launch him, you know, to move up quick to get the the fans behind him.

SPEAKER_00 14:31

Yeah, and they desperately need some new faces in that heavyweight division, man. They've been cutting people left and right. I mean, I'm pretty sure like um Tytu Avassa, who hasn't won a fight in a long time, is still in the top 15. So it's it's crazy, bro. The heavyweight division is desperate for some new faces, and hopefully Tyrell pulls through. Um, the only issue I'm seeing in this matchup, um written respectfully, and I don't know much about Tyrell, but I could definitely say see Tyborah using his experience and his grappling and winning on control time. I think that's his only path to victory is if he like lay lays and praise on Tyrell. But I I think more likely fortune gets the knockout.

SPEAKER_02 15:15

Yep, that's what I'm looking at.

SPEAKER_00 15:17

So, alright, man. We have not disagreed yet. Let's see how we do on this next fight. We have Chase Hooper versus Lance Gibson Jr. What are the odds first?

SPEAKER_02 15:27

Alright, so the odds minus 260 for Chase Hooper. Lance Lance Jr. is at plus 215. Lock Chase up, bro. He's not losing this one. Chase by submission. I say chase by submission, bro. Yep.

SPEAKER_00 15:43

Yeah, this is this this is this is getting chase back on the wagon, bro. Yeah, that's exactly what this is. I don't think he's UFC caliber, but um, and I know so Hooper was won four in a row, and then he got knocked out by um was it Alexander Hernandez? Yeah, Alexander Hernandez. And dude, Alexander Hernandez was on a pretty hot win streak knocking people out, and you know, he's considered a contender as well. Um, so Hooper lost to no chump at all, and I just think this is a a level down in competition. I think this is one of those layup fights for Chase to get a quick sub, get his name uh back on the map and respected, and get a higher level of fight. But um this is this is an easy win for Chase. I would have put the odds at minus 400 respectfully, bro.

SPEAKER_02 16:33

Yeah, I was I was surprised they weren't as high as I was thinking, because I was thinking this is kind of a layup fight. But so either, you know, they know something we don't, or again, I don't know, people just kind of fell off the Chase Hooper bandwagon, but like you said, I think this is get the crowd back behind him and feeling good for this young kid.

SPEAKER_00 16:50

Yeah, I think the only issue with Chase is like one, he's pretty weak striking-wise. You know, that's obviously not his forte. And then number two, I think he just needs to work on his sh his takedowns a little bit better. Like it once he gets a hold of you, you know, he's incredible with the jujitsu. And once he ha once he has you in a position where he can control you, but it's just the fact of getting to you and taking him taking you down. So I think that's a little, you know, kind of like with Patty Pimblett. Like, Patty's got great jujitsu, but his wrestling needs some more work just to get you in that position to where he can try doing different submissions.

SPEAKER_02 17:26

Yeah, because that's I mean, we Justin Gagey wasn't even like, you know, wrestling out wrestling him. He just kept sprawling, and Patty had nothing to do about it, you know.

SPEAKER_00 17:35

It's like he couldn't like if Patty would have got him on the ground and had a good good control over him, he he would have had a way higher chance, probability of getting that sub, but he just couldn't get to the point where he could take Justin down. Yeah. And I think Chase Chase kind of has that similar issue where the jiu-jitsu's incredible, but the takedowns need to be a little bit better.

SPEAKER_02 17:55

Yeah, let's hope he's been working on that in-between game.

SPEAKER_00 17:58

But dude, no issue for Chase. He's he's beaten Gibson. Next up we have uh Ignacio Bahamandez versus Tofique Muzayev. I don't know much about Muzayev, to be honest, but I know Ignacio is really good on the feet, and he's a hot prospect as well. You know, he's been has some UFC years under his belt now. He's he's uh growing into like his his final form in the UFC, and I think Ignacio's definitely in that contender range. So this I'm interested at what Tofique's style is and if he's gonna give Ignacio any problems.

SPEAKER_02 18:39

This is gonna be a banger, bro. Both of these guys like to stand and both of these guys like to just straight up just strike. So Ignacio has 11 KOs, Tofique has 18 KOs. So this fight is not going the distance. That's what I'm gonna say. You can get the under 2.5 or minus 170. I think that's the best bet. Just watching these guys bang it out and watch one of them knock the other guy out. But Ignacio is the favorite at minus 300 and Tofique at plus 250.

SPEAKER_00 19:08

I like Ignacio a lot, bro. It's really hard for me to fade him, but not knowing this guy and knowing that you you're telling me he has 18 KOs, yeah. That might be a hot underdog play. Like, I don't I think I'm gonna pass on this fight after hearing those odds, but I feel like if you're gonna take an underdog, why not throw some money on a guy who's got knocked out another guy 18 times?

SPEAKER_02 19:31

Someone who's got hands is worth putting money on. That's why I think the under two and a half is the best pick here. Yeah, I like that, bro.

SPEAKER_00 19:38

Because you're either way, if someone gets finished, you're getting paid.

SPEAKER_02 19:41

Yeah, and at minus 170, that's that's good for under two and a half. Especially with these guys both having KO power. I'm surprised it's not under one and a half.

SPEAKER_00 19:50

Yeah. I I like it, bro. You might you might that might be a parlay piece for sure.

SPEAKER_02 19:55

Yeah, I think that's the ticket for that fight.

SPEAKER_00 19:58

Alright, next up we have Kyle Nelson versus Terrence McKinney. Uh, what's the odds on this, bro? Like, I honestly like I I cannot see any odds for these fights, so is you're telling me this is the first time hearing him.

SPEAKER_02 20:11

So I just want to say one thing before Terrence McKinney has never lost or gone a decision. Like, he he either gets knocked out or submitted, or he knocks them out and submits them. Like, none of his fights have ever gone the distance, not one, which I thought was kind of a crazy stack. But they have Terrence McKinney at minus 170 and Kyle Nelson at plus 145. I don't know, dude. This is kind of a weird one because I I feel like Nelson can pull it off and KO anybody at any time. But I do feel like Terrence is a you know, he's younger, he's a little bit more athletic, he's kind of like a little spider monkey in there running around all over the place, you know. So I I don't know how I feel about this one. I do like Terrence McKinney probably just a little bit more than Kyle Nelson overall, but it I think either of these guys could, you know, knock the other one out or submit. So this is torn.

SPEAKER_00 21:01

I I feel like I don't have a strong pick here, but I feel like I know how the fight's gonna play out. So if it ends in the first round, McKinney wins. If it goes past the first round, I think Kyle Nelson has a better gas tank. Terrence McKinney really gasses out after round one. You know, he get he goes 100% balls to the wall. I mean, you said it. He's not going to decisions. He's either getting finished or he's the one finishing. And um I think Kyle Nelson has a little bit of a higher I think a lot of people have a higher fight IQ than Terrence McKinney, but I think Nelson has a a better IQ, a better better gas tank, and I feel like I I would have to put money on him being the underdog, but you're right, McKinney's younger and he's way more explosive and he's a lot faster. I mean, I think if he if he doesn't get the knockout in the first round or or submission, I think it's big trouble. For McKinney, but that's how I see it playing out, bro.

SPEAKER_02 22:03

This is what I see. Kyle Nelson is like a tank, like he's super tight in his boxing and super rigid. And Terrence McKinney's like a heat-seeking missile, it's just flowing around finding the heat, basically, you know. So I mean it's like they're they're both gonna box and bang, but it's completely different, like you know, new boxing versus old boxing kind of.

SPEAKER_00 22:23

Yeah, yeah, 100%. So if if McKinney lands, then it could be trouble for Nelson. But that first round, you know, will really determine how how this fight goes. Um yeah, I think I'll pass, but I think I think Kyle Nelson and that Tofiq are really good underdog plays. You know, I wouldn't be mad losing money on an underdog play for those.

SPEAKER_02 22:45

Not for Kyle Nelson, man, because he does have the ability to knock people out. But he does have the power, he's and like you said, he's super intelligent, but it just I either one of these guys could get knocked out first or second round.

SPEAKER_00 22:57

It's a banger fight, though. Like it's one of those fights where uh most most like casuals might not know too much, you know, about them because they're not like high in the rankings, but they're gonna make you a fan after that fight. You're gonna be like, oh my god, that last that guy's fight was crazy.

SPEAKER_02 23:12

Yeah. These clips will be on YouTube tomorrow and Instagram or on tomorrow on Sunday. And the same thing. I mean, this is like the things that people watch, right? This is could be a fight of the night.

SPEAKER_00 23:22

Yeah, facts, bro, 100%. And they both could use that bonus too.

SPEAKER_02 23:27

So could I. Dana White.

SPEAKER_00 23:32

Next up we have um U3 Belagore Belagroy versus Mancer Abdul Malik. I don't know much about your C. Uh Your C sorry, I I'm having an issue saying his name, but I know Abdul Malik is a big time prospect, got a ton of power, so um I hope this Ur C has good um uh you know, covers up well and and has good good striking defense because Mansoor is a unit.

SPEAKER_02 24:04

Yeah, I mean I don't know anything really about your C. Um, but like you just said, I mean he he comes in, he's a specimen of a human being, he's just gonna be solid. Uh he's got more experience than the other guy, and the odds are in good shape. I mean, you can get Abdul Malik at minus 120, and your C is even money, so I'll I'll take the favorite at minus 120 here.

SPEAKER_00 24:26

So Yor C he in 2023 he lost on the contender series, and then he went to another organization called like Levels Fight League, you know, some low-level one, won two fights in a row, came back to the contender series, got a knockout win, and then got a uh knockout win in his first official UFC debut. Um so it looks like it looks like he's a pretty hot prospect too, bro. Um he is 33 years old, but in my opinion, I just think that that Abdul Malik is just a monster, bro. I think he's I think he's a higher caliber fighter. He's 28 years old, he's younger. Um their reach advan their reach is about the same. Uh Yorsi is six foot six, Malik is six two, so if that chin's straight up in there, that could be trouble for Yorsi.

SPEAKER_02 25:15

That four inch.

SPEAKER_00 25:16

Give me Mansur for the knockout, bro.

SPEAKER_02 25:18

Which that's crazy high at that uh that middleweight too.

SPEAKER_00 25:22

Yeah. I wonder how much I well, I'm interested to see the skills when he weighs in.

SPEAKER_02 25:27

Yeah, that's crazy.

SPEAKER_00 25:29

So, but yeah, bro, I like I like a uh Mansour a lot in this matchup, man. I'm I'm pretty surprised the odds are that close. Um definitely would not be surprised if you know if there's a finish here. I definitely think there's someone's getting knocked out.

SPEAKER_02 25:43

Yeah, that's what I'd say. Even the under two and a half is minus 135, so they're expecting it to not quite go the distance.

SPEAKER_00 25:52

Alrighty. Um next up we have Larry and Douglas versus Julian Arosa. Dude, Arosa's been in the OC for quite some time, bro. That's a that's a young, that's like a young veteran right there.

SPEAKER_02 26:05

Yeah, he's been around forever, dude. That's where it's same thing. I think experience comes in here too against uh Douglas. Um, I mean, Julian, I think, is really good on the ground. Yeah, same thing. I kind of feel like he struggles a little bit with the wrestling, and he's not maybe the most intelligent in the boxing. He can box, it's just sometimes I feel like he puts himself for jeopardy to stay in the pocket and he doesn't really slip punches or anything very well. But I mean, I think Julian on the ground can be really dangerous. So I'm taking Julian Arosa plus 255. Douglas is at minus 310.

SPEAKER_00 26:40

Alright. I I I can't hate on the underdog play, but I think this is the first fight where I'm gonna part ways with you. I'm taking Larry and Douglas. I'm looking here, bro. He got a knockout in the first round of the contender series, and before that, he um, you know, he had two title fights, both by winning by knockout in LFA. And I I hate to compare other leagues, but I mean he's this guy's a winner, bro. He's a champion from another league. He comes in the UFC in the contender series, gets a knockout in the first round. Um, Julian Arosa, he has the experience here. If he takes it to the ground, I definitely think that could make the fight really interesting. And Arosta bec could become a live underdog at that point. But dude, he has a lot of miles on the tank. I agree. I don't think he has a f a high fight IQ either. Arosa's taking a ton of damage. I think he's getting knocked out in this matchup, bro. I'm taking Lyrian Douglas by KO.

SPEAKER_02 27:38

Alright, well, you're fading each other finally, so let's go. It's either submit or KO.

SPEAKER_00 27:45

Yeah, yeah. Arosta by submission or Douglas by KO. Um, I I would make a personal bet with you, but I know the advantage is on my side because my guy's already um favored pretty highly, but I would imagine if you take Douglas by knockout, you might be able to get even or plus money. A roasted by submission, you're probably getting like at least plus four or five hundred. So that'd be if you're on that side, you're getting paid out pretty good if it happens.

SPEAKER_02 28:11

They don't have those lines up yet, at least not on Bovada.

SPEAKER_00 28:14

So, all good. We'll uh we'll check him out tomorrow. I bet they'll be up. But dude, Arosta's hard to count out, bro. Like, I I would never be mad losing money on him because he's a dog, bro. Like, he's not gonna tap easy, he's not gonna go out easy, dude. I've seen that guy take a ton of damage and just keep throwing, dude.

SPEAKER_02 28:35

Well, that's what I'm saying. Sometimes I feel like he takes damage when he doesn't need to when it's not necessary. That's that's his downfall on that, you know. But again, I think he's great on the ground. I think he's got great jujitsu. So it's gonna be an it's gonna be an interesting fight. So if he decides to stand and bang, like you said, he's probably gonna get knocked out, but he's just gotta focus on on the floor game and take the win.

SPEAKER_00 28:57

It's hard to change your style too, bro. Like, let's say if you got a really good chin for a long time, like a rosa, like when you can afford to eat those shots and keep throwing, you know, taking one just to get yours in, like, I get it, but it's so hard to change your fighting style if that's what had worked for you for so long. Like, the one of the best examples that I could think of is Tony Ferguson. Like, he used to be able to eat shots, you know, left and right. He had a titanium chin, but now, you know, it's it's not like that. You know, someone else like uh um Jiri Prohaska, you know, that dude has an iron chin. I've seen him take a ton of shots.

SPEAKER_02 29:35

He'll take it like crazy too, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 29:37

Marvin Vittori, Chido Vera, like, you know, the chins don't last forever, bro.

SPEAKER_02 29:43

Yep, yeah, that's the problem. So again, I I I do like him as the underdog, so that's my underdog for the play.

SPEAKER_00 29:51

Alright. I can't hate on it though, man. I can't. Next up, we got Michael Chieso. This is the the nursing home matchup right here. Battle of the old man. We got Michael Kieso versus Nico Price. Both have been in the UFC for a long time. Um, respected veterans, some dogs. Nico, in my opinion, is gonna want to stand and trade on the feet in this matchup and keep his standing. Kies is a big time grappler. He wants to get you on the fence, wear you down, test that gas tank, get you on the ground, and try to find some submissions. Um, this is a good matchup, bro. Who do you like?

SPEAKER_02 30:28

This is a good matchup. I do I do like uh Michael a little bit better than Nico, but the odds are minus 750, bro, and there's just no way I can play this or before.

SPEAKER_00 30:38

Who's minus 750?

SPEAKER_02 30:40

Uh Michael.

SPEAKER_00 30:41

Kiesa.

unknown 30:43

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 30:43

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 30:44

I mean it makes sense. Kiesa's been a lot more active than Price. Price is Kiesa had a win in his last matchup and price has really declined. But dude, I think I think that you got this is a dog or pass fight for me. You gotta sprinkle Nico if you do want to bet on the fight, because there's no value on Kiesa. And I I think that's not worth it betting on him. I don't need I don't even think he's a lock in this matchup, bro.

SPEAKER_02 31:08

No, exactly. That's why when I saw that, I was like, what is happening right now? But they had Nico price at plus 500. I mean, it's just that's just to me, that's insane. But I was expecting to be closer, maybe minus 200 or something, but that that's just crazy.

SPEAKER_00 31:25

Yeah, that's insane, bro. That's super dogger pass for me. I'm gonna just probably pass on that.

SPEAKER_02 31:30

Yeah, he's the biggest favorite on the card. Like, how how is that possible, bro?

SPEAKER_00 31:35

It's interesting because like that one, I want to stay all the way away, but when we were talking about the Navajo Sterling, like no problem with that one. Or the Alexia Thin Era, the that first fight versus Bruno Brazil, no problem taking that. Like, I I feel like those are a lot more locky, but than this. Minus 700, crazy work.

SPEAKER_02 31:58

Minus, yeah, that's crazy. I mean, he Nico could catch him like with an uppercut when he's shooting in, or catch him with a knee, and that's it. Game over. Like you said, both these guys are they gotta be over or close to 40, right?

SPEAKER_00 32:10

Oh, 100%, bro. Yeah, so let's let's pass on that one, bro. That's a that we'll just watch that one.

SPEAKER_02 32:21

Yeah, exactly. I'll just watch, I'll just like fan, be a fan that time.

SPEAKER_00 32:26

Alright, so now we've made it up to our co-man event of the evening. We have former champ Alexa Grasso versus Macy Barber. This is a really interesting mass up matchup because Grasso, she she's pretty good at mixing it up, but her primary focus is to grapple and utilize her wrestling and her jujitsu. Macy wants to stand on the feet, dude. She wants to keep it standing, she wants to trade shots, and um, she's really good with her hands. She's a good boxer. Um, I'm kind of torn on this one, man. I'll let you pick.

SPEAKER_02 33:00

I'm with you, bro. I'm torn because I feel like it's just it depends on whose game plan sticks better, right? Like I like for sure that that first round is probably gonna be Macy just teeing off, you know, being able to sprawl and get away from the grappling for the most part. But as they start to fatigue out, dude, really, it's anybody's game. Now, knowing that I feel like it's more 50-50, I have to take the the favorite and Macy Barber at minus 180. Alexa Grasso's at plus 155, but it I don't love those odds necessarily. I was thinking it was gonna be a pick'em or closer, but I I don't know, man. I think Barber's on the way up, and I think Grazo's kind of stagnant. I wouldn't say declining, I just feel like she's stagnant. She's not growing. I don't I wouldn't say she's just enjoying her time anymore. I feel like she's just she's kind of been there and is she's just stuck, right?

SPEAKER_00 33:51

It's like they don't, but the hunger isn't the same.

SPEAKER_02 33:56

Yeah, exactly, bro. I just feel like she doesn't have the drive to keep you know grinding that hard to be the top, you know, three.

SPEAKER_00 34:03

Yeah, I agree. I think she's kind of in a similar situation as like a Brandon Moreno, where it's like they've been at the top, they're still at the top, the skills are there, but it's like how hungry are you if you already became the champion, you already you know have gotten the that that champion money, and it's like but and now you're fighting these people that haven't tasted that yet, like a Macy Barber. So in my opinion, the value lies on Grasso, but I personally, if I didn't hear the odds, I have to take Macy Barber here. I just think that you know it's it's a close fight. I'm always gonna take the person who's hungrier. And I know Macy really wants a title shot, and um, she's experienced some highs and lows in the UFC, but I really think that she's put it together at a good time and she's ready to make her title run right now.

SPEAKER_02 34:53

Yep. I think it's might be that step.

SPEAKER_00 34:56

And she's like 27, bro. She's so young.

SPEAKER_02 34:58

Yeah, she's young for sure. Well, the UFC, someone's always gunning for you, right? Like as soon as you make it there, there's already 15 people below you gunning for your spot.

SPEAKER_00 35:08

Yeah, it's it's cutthrow, bro. Like, there's no there's no off nights in the UFC. I mean, when you fight, you know, sp your performance determines everything. It's all about what can you do for me right now. Yeah. And you're always trying to you could win like six in a row, but if you lose your last fight, you know, just like earlier when we talked about Chase Hooper, he was on a four or five win streak. He gets knocked out by Alexander Hernandez, and then now he's back at the bottom fighting that um trying to rank back up. Yeah, sorry, I was trying to think. He's fighting Lance Gibson Jr. where he should be fighting a top 10-15 guy right now.

SPEAKER_02 35:43

So I mean, it happens to everyone. Even like look at McGregor, he was killing it until he wasn't, right? It's like you do great until you get your leg broken, and then all of a sudden you disappear. Yeah. All these guys, man, even as soon as you get there, someone's gunning for you, someone's already, you know, they've seen you fight enough, they have your foot your footage, they know your weaknesses and strengths, and it's just a matter of time, right? It's like I mean, really, other than Kabib, nobody's like been completely undefeated in the UFC.

SPEAKER_00 36:12

Yeah, I'd say just Khib and John Jones, that's it. So yeah, Jones never lost. Especially like with active fighters, too. I mean, the more active you are, you're gonna end up getting caught at some point. So at some point, right? At some point. Yeah. Hey, that's a that's some good life advice too, bro. Like, especially in the UFC, but I think across the board in all aspects of life, especially with like jobs or hobbies or um like pat whatever you have passion for, you always have to have that mindset, man. However hard you're working, there's always somebody out there in the world that's working ten times harder than you, ten times hungrier than you, someone that hasn't even had what you have right now at this moment. Like you you gotta always you can never get too comfortable in life in whatever aspect it is. So always look to grow. But um, yeah, I think we're both taking barber in that one. I don't know if I'll put on a parlay, but um if I did, it'd be the last leg. So yeah.

SPEAKER_02 37:13

Yeah, because that's an easy one.

SPEAKER_00 37:16

Yeah. Um, alright, so I'm I'm curious if that's gonna be three or five rounds, too. That'll make it if it's five rounds, that'll give even Grasso more of value on her.

SPEAKER_02 37:27

Yeah, I'm gonna do that.

SPEAKER_00 37:28

But I think it's probably just three.

SPEAKER_02 37:29

Yeah, because it's the over-under is plus or over two and a half, so I think it must be three.

SPEAKER_00 37:34

Yeah, that's advantaged, barber then for sure, because his champion rounds are a little different. Right. Alright, so we made it to the main event, bro. This is a crazy matchup. Like, if this was if this was like five to seven years ago, I think Addisona would be a massive favorite. He would have been, you know, back in his prime, he would have been probably a minus 450 right now. Um Adasanya is one of the best kickboxers of all time in the UFC. Um, former champion, defended the belt many times. He carried the UFC on his back during the pandemic, in my opinion. Yeah, that's a good one. And um that's a hundred. Super active, bro. And then Joe Pyfer is that young, hungry, never tasted a belt yet. You know, he this is his fight to put him in champion championship caliber, like contention level. And um stylistically, it's interesting too, because Adasanya wants to stand and kickbox and keep you at range the whole time. Piper wants to be in your face and he wants to take you down and absolutely maul you.

SPEAKER_02 38:39

Yeah, exactly, bro. So, like you said, style testically, it's gonna be a good matchup. This is gonna be, I think it's gonna be a banger for sure. I don't think we're gonna see any lay in prey. It's like they're gonna be standing, boxing, getting the best of each other, and then you're gonna see Joe shoot in and you know, I don't want to say take a break, but he's gonna be using that to recover to go back to boxing basically. I I don't know, dude. I'm kind of torn in this fight because Izzy's been losing all of his fights lately. He hasn't been as active. It's it's kind of like he peaked and is just showing up for the money now. I like you said before, I just don't know how hungry he is or how much he really wants this. But it's hard for me to fade him, man, and bet against him at the same time. So I'm I'm really torn here. I what's the odds?

SPEAKER_00 39:20

That'll that'll kind of sh that that might manipulate my opinion a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 39:24

So Addisanya's at minus 150, Fiverr at plus 130. So it's a little bit more than a pick'em essentially.

SPEAKER_00 39:31

Yeah. This is how I see the fight going. Um, in my opinion, I think I don't know how hungry Addisanya is, but I think for him, you know, uh he has lost. You're right, but he lost to uh Imovov, who is probably gonna be fighting for the title next. You know, he's right up there, he's the number one contender, and then he lost to Sean Strickland, um who um just beat um Fluffy, you know, who and Strickland's getting the next title shot.

SPEAKER_02 40:02

So just got crazy hands right now. He's just he's on fire at the moment, dude.

SPEAKER_00 40:07

Yeah, and he stuffed all those takedowns, and then um who is he his uh only other loss was to um DuPlessis, who um it was a really close title fight, and he ended up um getting submitted by by Dricas. So my my argument for Adasanya is dude, he's only losing to the cream of the crop, you know, champions.

SPEAKER_02 40:29

But Piper lost to Peoria or Alex Pioria just before that, too.

SPEAKER_00 40:35

Yeah, he yeah, he lost to Pereira, but Pereira is gonna be fighting for his he might be the first three belt three division belt holder in UFC history. He might be the first triple champ, so that's crazy. Piper, I think Pyfer is a contender, but I think Adassania is a couple bit a couple levels too high for Piper. Pyfer's only chance in this fight is if he does get successfully get a takedown and he ground impounds Adasanya and gets a knockout, or if it's on the feet, you know, he just catches Adasanya. Because I do think Adasanya has a lot of miles on the tank and some, you know, he's accumulated a lot of damage throughout his career. But in this matchup, I'm picking Adassania because I think his footwork is gonna be too much for Piper. I don't think Piper's gonna be able to get his hands on Adasanya because their footwork is just completely different levels.

SPEAKER_02 41:29

I'm thinking boxing, he should be able to really, like you said, control the distance, and if he sees you know Joe shoot in from the distance, he's gonna be throwing knees and kicking, and the striking is at a different level.

SPEAKER_00 41:41

You know, he's and this is what I'm thinking, bro. If he does successfully um defend those takedowns in the early rounds, Pyfer's gonna gas out, he's gonna get tired, and this is the main event. So I'm assuming five rounds.

SPEAKER_02 41:55

It is five.

SPEAKER_00 41:56

So if it after two rounds, I think Addisanya's only gonna gain momentum because he Piper's gonna start to gas out. Addisona's had more five-round fights than most UFC fighters. You know, this is a cakewalk for him. And if Pyfer gets lazy on those takedowns, uh shooting those takedowns in the later rounds, I think Addisonia could even catch him and get a knockout here. Like you said, if he throws him teeth, front kicks, throws a knee up the middle, especially while Piper's tired. Um I could also see this being like a bit of a snooze fest where Adasanya gets a decision win and Piper's just chasing around the cage the whole time. Addison's pop, pop, pop, and then just sticking and moving. So lots of different outcomes, but I gotta I gotta take Addisanya one more time. Um it's close enough odds, and I think the footwork's the difference here for me. And this is one of those fights for Piper where if he loses, it's not gonna hurt his resume at all, bro. Losing Adasanya, he it out of sight, out of mind, he'll st Piffer will still get big time fights even if he loses this matchup. I just think he can't lose like in a quick, embarrassing way. But Piper has nothing to lose. Addisona's got all the pressure on him because if he loses this fight, it's you you gotta retire, bro. Like, what are we doing if you're not winning this one?

SPEAKER_02 43:12

Yep, yeah, that's it. He's done for sure after this. Alright, well, we're both on Izzy, so the only one we really didn't care for was the who is my underdog? Oh, Arosa.

SPEAKER_00 43:24

Arosa. And I mean, I can't even argue with that because you're you're taking a pretty good sized underdog. So I'm not mad at that at all. You're gonna put together some nasty parlays, dude. I got some freaking heat.

SPEAKER_02 43:39

Alright, give me one second. Alright. So this is this is what I did. I did Sterling and then Hooper and then uh Chezay. So minus 122. Okay. So it's just giant favorites, basically.

SPEAKER_00 43:59

Who's your third?

SPEAKER_02 44:01

Uh Michael, is it Chese? Kiesa. Kiesa.

SPEAKER_00 44:05

Gotcha. Okay, okay.

SPEAKER_02 44:07

So I don't mind that. I can hedge it easily. And that's it's just it's minus 122, so not just a little less than one unit for one unit.

SPEAKER_00 44:19

Okay. I like it, bro. That's not bad. Um are you doing the Martingale?

SPEAKER_02 44:26

Yep. Oh yeah, let me pull that up because that's on a different account. Uh dude to do. So my Martingale, I took uh Ricky Simone for the first leg, and then Casey O'Neill, and then Tyrell Fortune. Which we we kind of loved all those three, so as long as one of them wins, that's uh that's it. We're going in the right direction.

SPEAKER_00 44:43

Let's go. Let's get it. Alright, bro. Let's get it, dude. Alright, so leg number one for me is Casey O'Neill. Okay, love it. And then we're going to take Douglas. And then we're going to take Israel out of Sonya for leg number three.

SPEAKER_02 45:20

Oh yeah, that's nice, dude. That's a plus 325. That's a great dude.

SPEAKER_00 45:25

If if we can get through that, dude, we'll easy hedge for Joe Piper on that on that title fight. Um, that's what I'm thinking, bro. I'm thinking Piper. If Piper does win, it's gonna be by a knockout too, so that might even get better plus money. And then um can I give out a crazy one just for like a like a core unit?

SPEAKER_02 45:47

Yep, let's do it, dude.

SPEAKER_00 45:48

Alright, let's take Alexia. Yep, Ricky Simone. Love it, Sterling, O'Neal. Love it. Um let's take Malik. Abdul Malik. Sorry.

SPEAKER_02 46:15

Oh, I got you, yeah, yeah. Bam.

SPEAKER_00 46:17

And then Macy Barber and then Israel Israel Adasanya. Oh, I got it. I know that's gotta pay like plus 1200 or something, maybe?

SPEAKER_02 46:26

Plus 1930.

SPEAKER_00 46:28

Alright, cool. So about almost almost 20 times your money right there.

SPEAKER_02 46:33

Yeah, exactly. So that's legit. Alright, so a quarter unit on that one, bam.

SPEAKER_00 46:38

How many legs was that? Like eight?

SPEAKER_02 46:40

Oh, seven.

SPEAKER_00 46:42

Alright, alright. I I feel pretty good about those, bro. And even like I I'm a little nervous with the Addisonia Piffer fight, but I don't I don't I'm not really stressing it just because that is the last leg. So if we're lucky enough to get to that point, that's an easy hedge. But this this week, I definitely will hedge that, bro. Like if I get to that point, I I will hedge.

SPEAKER_02 47:01

Yeah, we we should always do it if we get to that point.

SPEAKER_00 47:04

Yeah, because last week, I mean I felt pretty good about the main event, even though Movzar barely won that split against LaRon Murphy, uh, which that was really controversial. But um this fight this weekend, like I felt pretty confident about Evlov last week, but Adasanya, dude, I I don't know the hunger I know. That's the difference for me. I was talking about his footwork and distance, but dude, at the end of the day, Piper's a hell of a lot hungrier. So it's that does scare me a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 47:32

Yep, that's the that's the main difference there. All right, basketball.

SPEAKER_00 47:38

Yep, so now moving on to the March Madness tournament. Uh, we're in the Sweet 16 right now. Um couple teams that uh I like that we like to win it all. We both were talking crazy about Arizona. Dude, they're looking better than ever right now, man. We uh uh one of the one seeds, Florida, had lost to Iowa the other day, so we don't have to worry about Florida being a threat anymore. And um yeah, dude, I I love Arizona's side of the bracket. I feel, you know, I feel the same way, dude. I'm I'm still taking them to the bank. Um other teams I think that are dangerous that are actually have a lot of value is Nebraska. They're dangerous and have value. Um Illinois has a lot of value on them. I think that you could, you know, I I don't mind Illinois at all. So outside of Arizona, I'd say Nebraska, Illinois, um, and then St. John's. I like St. John's a lot.

SPEAKER_02 48:37

I like St. John's too against Duke, dude. I think that could be the next upset. And St. John's is at plus two thirty.

SPEAKER_00 48:44

Yeah, dude, I bro, I love that. Like, I think that's crazy odds. Like, that should be closer to a pick up. Maybe Duke minus two and a half, but six and a half's crazy, bro. Yeah. Like, look at the Friday's matchup. I'm taking St. John over Duke. Alabama's gonna play Michigan closer than people think.

SPEAKER_02 49:03

I think scary. That's gonna be a scary game, bro.

SPEAKER_00 49:07

Yeah. I'm taking Michigan State over Connecticut. I think Michigan State's a little bit better. Um, Iowa State taking them over Tennessee. Let's see. Texas might play Purdue close. I'm staying away from that. I'm taking Iowa over Nebraska. Arizona. Arkansas's a handful. They're gonna give Arizona a good game, but Arizona's, dude, they've been playing top of the top-tier teams all season. I don't I'm not worried about that.

SPEAKER_02 49:37

It really seems like it's more we're like our second half and our conditioning is just a little bit better. Because a lot of times we'll they'll be close or we'll be down a little bit, but then that you know, the last quarter, the second half of the you know, second half is where we kind of really start to pull away and gain that momentum again.

SPEAKER_00 49:55

Yeah, I think you guys do such a great job of making those halftime corrections and adjustments. Like, I don't know if if there's a better team at adjusting mid-game and figuring it out than Arizona as well.

SPEAKER_02 50:08

Yeah, and again, our bench is so deep. I think we can, you know, guys revolve around so they're not as fatigued going into the end of the game.

SPEAKER_00 50:17

Yeah, you got absolutely like lots of death on the team, loaded with death. Um, I think the closest game in the next two days is gonna be Illinois and Houston. That's really a 50-50 game. Um, but I I I think Illinois's a little bit better. But I think if you're gonna play any underdog in the next two days, I think we both agree St. John's is the the best underdog to take. Especially just take him by spread if you're scared. Yep. Yeah, I agree, bro. Give me six, six and a half freaking points, no problem. Yeah, dude, I think everything's looking good, bro. Like my final four that I've put on the on my bracket is still alive, and uh, you know, like I said, we we both talked about St. John before the tournament. You could have got them at plus six thousand, plus eight thousand at one point, and we've been talking about St. John's the last couple weeks, and uh Iowa State, you know, a lot of these teams we talked about are doing really well and playing out exactly what we s as we said. The only team I will take accountability for and say that I was wrong about was Wisconsin, bro. I talked pretty highly about them, but they kind of flaked out in the tournament, so and that happens.

SPEAKER_02 51:30

Yeah, that happens, dude. So um final four is still in. I'm looking good at the bracket too.

SPEAKER_00 51:39

What's your final four at now?

SPEAKER_02 51:42

Uh I did have Duke. I did Duke, Illinois, AZ, and Michigan.

SPEAKER_00 51:47

Okay, well, you got everybody alive. I got Iowa State, Arizona, um, Michigan State, and Houston.

SPEAKER_02 51:56

Because I had Nebraska going against um Florida and then beating Florida, but they got upset by Iowa already.

SPEAKER_00 52:04

Yeah, well, good thing you picked Nebraska anyway, so they're they're still hot. I'll take it. Nebraska's tired, bro. I like them.

SPEAKER_01 52:12

Alright, guys, well.

SPEAKER_00 52:14

Alright, that's our podcast, man. Ri Taylor Fade uh ride or fader UFC picks, don't care. Same thing as March Madness. We're here to have fun and make some money along the way. So um, that's all we got this week. Next week we'll give out some more predictions and talk more about the tournament, but uh mic'd have been misinformed is out. Later, guys.